TC Energy Corp
TSX:TRP
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TRP stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.35 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 69.65 CAD, TC Energy Corp is Overvalued by 28%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
TC Energy Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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TC Energy Corp., originally founded as TransCanada in 1951, has grown into a major player in North America's energy infrastructure landscape. The company operates an extensive network of pipelines and power generation facilities that connect vast energy resources to key markets. With over 93,000 kilometers of pipelines in operation, TC Energy is primarily involved in the transportation of natural gas, crude oil, and liquids. This strategic positioning has allowed the company to serve as a critical link in the energy supply chain, meeting the growing demand for reliable energy across North America while fostering energy security. By prioritizing sustainability and investing in renewable energ...
TC Energy Corp., originally founded as TransCanada in 1951, has grown into a major player in North America's energy infrastructure landscape. The company operates an extensive network of pipelines and power generation facilities that connect vast energy resources to key markets. With over 93,000 kilometers of pipelines in operation, TC Energy is primarily involved in the transportation of natural gas, crude oil, and liquids. This strategic positioning has allowed the company to serve as a critical link in the energy supply chain, meeting the growing demand for reliable energy across North America while fostering energy security. By prioritizing sustainability and investing in renewable energy projects, TC Energy is not only navigating the transition towards cleaner energy sources but also aligning itself with global trends that prioritize environmental stewardship.
For investors, TC Energy represents a blend of stability and growth potential. The company boasts a strong financial performance demonstrated by consistent dividend payments, underpinned by a diverse portfolio of contracted assets that provide steady cash flows. With ongoing capital projects and an ambitious plan to expand its renewable energy initiatives, TC Energy aims to enhance shareholder value while addressing the dynamic energy needs of the future. The firm’s commitment to maintaining a robust balance sheet and pursuing disciplined capital investment strategies reflects a disciplined approach to growth, showcasing TC Energy as a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to the evolving energy sector.
TC Energy Corporation, formerly known as TransCanada Corporation, is a major North American energy infrastructure company with operations primarily in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. The core business segments of TC Energy can be categorized as follows:
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Natural Gas Pipelines: This is one of TC Energy's most significant segments and involves the transportation and storage of natural gas. The company operates an extensive network of pipelines that transport natural gas across North America, connecting supply regions to markets. Key assets in this segment include the Canadian Mainline, the U.S. Northeast Pipeline network, and various storage facilities.
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Liquids Pipelines: This segment focuses on the transportation of crude oil and other liquids. TC Energy operates pipelines that bring crude oil from major production areas, such as Alberta's oil sands, to major markets and export facilities. Notable projects include the Keystone Pipeline System, which transports crude oil from Canada to various U.S. destinations.
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Power Generation: TC Energy has a growing portfolio of power generation facilities, including natural gas, hydroelectric, and renewable energy sources. This segment includes electricity generation assets, such as combined-cycle power plants and renewable energy projects, which contribute to providing reliable electricity in North America.
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Energy Marketing and Trading: This segment involves the buying and selling of energy-related commodities, including natural gas, electricity, and liquids. TC Energy engages in trading activities to optimize the operation of its assets, manage market risks, and provide services to customers.
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Midstream Services: While primarily part of natural gas and liquids pipelines, TC Energy also provides midstream services, which include processing and transporting natural gas and other hydrocarbons. This segment typically involves working closely with producers and consumers to ensure efficient transportation and processing of energy resources.
These core segments collectively support TC Energy's strategy of providing essential infrastructure for energy transportation and generation while focusing on safety, reliability, and sustainability in its operations. The company has also committed to transitioning towards lower-carbon energy solutions, including investments in renewable energy projects and carbon capture technologies.
TC Energy Corp, a leader in the North American energy infrastructure sector, has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals:
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Diverse Asset Base: TC Energy operates a diversified portfolio, including natural gas pipelines, power generation, and liquids pipelines. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with market volatility and regulatory changes in any single energy sector.
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Robust Infrastructure: The company has an extensive and highly integrated pipeline network. This infrastructure allows for efficient transportation of energy products across North America, giving TC Energy an edge in terms of operational capacity and reliability.
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Long-Term Contracts: TC Energy often relies on long-term contracts for its pipeline services, providing predictable revenue streams. This stable cash flow is a significant advantage over competitors who may rely more on spot market pricing.
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Regulatory Expertise: With decades of experience in navigating the complex regulatory landscape of the North American energy sectors, TC Energy has established strong relationships with regulatory bodies, which can help streamline project approvals and reduce compliance risks.
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Investments in Innovation: The company invests in technology and innovation, such as advanced monitoring systems and emissions reduction technologies, which not only enhance operational efficiency but also align with increasing public and regulatory demands for sustainability.
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Strong Financial Position: TC Energy enjoys a solid balance sheet and strong credit ratings, enabling it to access capital at favorable rates for expansion and maintenance projects, thus supporting growth initiatives and enhancing competitive positioning.
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Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: Collaborations with other companies expand their project capabilities and market reach. Such partnerships can also help in sharing risks and leveraging each other's strengths.
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Commitment to Sustainability: TC Energy has made significant commitments to sustainability and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, positioning itself favorably in a market that increasingly values environmental responsibility.
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Geographic Reach: With a significant presence in Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, TC Energy benefits from geographical diversification which provides access to multiple markets and reduces reliance on any single economy.
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Experienced Management Team: The expertise and track record of TC Energy's management team is a vital asset, guiding the company through fluctuating market conditions and strategic decisions that enhance long-term shareholder value.
These competitive advantages enable TC Energy to maintain a strong market position and effectively navigate challenges in the energy sector.
TC Energy Corp, like many companies in the energy sector, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key ones to consider:
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Regulatory Challenges:
- The energy sector is heavily regulated. New regulations or changes in existing laws, particularly those related to environmental standards, can impact operations and increase costs.
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Environmental Concerns:
- Growing public and governmental pressure to reduce carbon emissions may affect fossil fuel transportation and lead to stricter environmental assessments. This could jeopardize existing and future projects, especially pipelines.
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Market Volatility:
- Fluctuations in oil and natural gas prices can impact profitability. Economic downturns or shifts in energy demand can significantly affect revenue.
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Geopolitical Risks:
- Political instability in regions where the company operates or purchases its resources can disrupt supply chains. International trade policies and sanctions can also affect operations.
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Competition and Technological Advancements:
- Increased competition from alternative energy sources (like renewables) and technological innovations may erode market share and margins. Competitors may also invest in more sustainable technologies.
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Infrastructure Integrity and Maintenance:
- As the pipeline network ages, ensuring the integrity and safety of infrastructure becomes paramount. Failures or spills can lead to significant financial liabilities and reputational damage.
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Investment in Renewable Energy:
- The energy transition to renewables may require substantial capital investment. Balancing investment in traditional energy infrastructure with renewable projects can pose financial risks.
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Supply Chain Disruptions:
- Global supply chain challenges, including shortages of materials and labor, can delay projects and increase costs.
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Debt Levels:
- Like many large corporations, TC Energy may carry significant debt. Rising interest rates can increase financing costs and put pressure on cash flows.
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Stakeholder Relations:
- Maintaining positive relationships with indigenous communities and other stakeholders is critical. Disputes or opposition can delay projects or lead to costly legal challenges.
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Cybersecurity Threats:
- As cyber attacks increasingly target infrastructure, maintaining robust cybersecurity measures becomes essential to protect both operations and sensitive customer data.
By closely monitoring these risks and developing strategies to mitigate them, TC Energy can better position itself for sustainable growth and navigate the challenges of the evolving energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
TC Energy Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
TC Energy Corp
Current Assets | 17.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 5B |
Receivables | 5.1B |
Other Current Assets | 6.9B |
Non-Current Assets | 118.2B |
Long-Term Investments | 13.4B |
PP&E | 84.2B |
Intangibles | 14.3B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 6.3B |
Current Liabilities | 13.1B |
Accounts Payable | 5.2B |
Accrued Liabilities | 868m |
Short-Term Debt | 422m |
Other Current Liabilities | 6.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 91.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 67.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 24.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
TC Energy Corp
Revenue
|
16.6B
CAD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-5.3B
CAD
|
Gross Profit
|
11.4B
CAD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-4.5B
CAD
|
Operating Income
|
6.9B
CAD
|
Other Expenses
|
-1.9B
CAD
|
Net Income
|
5.1B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
TC Energy Corp
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
TC Energy delivered a robust third quarter, with comparable EBITDA rising by 6% year-over-year, driven by strong asset performance and successful capital expenditures. The company revised its 2024 net CapEx forecast to $7.4 billion-$7.7 billion, a reduction of $700 million, enhancing its financial strength. Looking ahead, the 2024 EBITDA is projected at $11.2 billion-$11.5 billion. Key projects like Southeast Gateway are progressing well, with completion expected in mid-2025. Furthermore, TC Energy aims for a 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA ratio by year-end 2024, supported by a $1 billion asset sale completed this year, allowing for continued dividend stability.
What is Earnings Call?
TRP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
TC Energy Corp's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
TC Energy Corp's profitability score is 57/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TRP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
TC Energy Corp's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
TC Energy Corp's solvency score is 35/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TRP Price Targets Summary
TC Energy Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TRP is 70.46 CAD with a low forecast of 58.58 CAD and a high forecast of 86.1 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TRP is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
TC Energy Corporation engages in the provision of energy infrastructure services. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 7,017 full-time employees. The firm's segments include Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines, United States Natural Gas Pipelines, Mexico Natural Gas Pipelines, Liquids Pipelines and Power and Storage. The firm operates in three core businesses: Natural Gas Pipelines, Liquids Pipelines and Power and Storage. Its natural gas pipeline network transports natural gas from supply basins to local distribution companies, power generation plants, interconnecting pipelines, liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and other businesses across Canada, the United States (U.S.) and Mexico. Its liquids pipelines infrastructure connects Alberta crude oil supplies to U.S. refining markets in Illinois, Oklahoma and the U.S. Gulf Coast as well as U.S. crude oil supplies from the key market hub at Cushing, Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast. Its power business includes 4,200 megawatt of generation capacity located in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one TRP stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.35 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 69.65 CAD, TC Energy Corp is Overvalued by 28%.