Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
TSX:CP
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CP stock under the Base Case scenario is 120.87 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 107.25 CAD, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd is Undervalued by 11%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP) stands as one of North America's premier rail networks, fundamental to the transportation of goods across vast distances. Established in the 1880s, this iconic company has not only shaped the economic landscape of Canada but has also forged critical connections into the U.S. market. With a focus on efficiency and sustainability, CP operates a vast network of rail lines stretching over 13,000 miles, making it a crucial player in the North American supply chain. The company primarily transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, and potash, alongside intermodal shipping services. Investors are drawn to CP for its strong financial performance, robust ope...
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP) stands as one of North America's premier rail networks, fundamental to the transportation of goods across vast distances. Established in the 1880s, this iconic company has not only shaped the economic landscape of Canada but has also forged critical connections into the U.S. market. With a focus on efficiency and sustainability, CP operates a vast network of rail lines stretching over 13,000 miles, making it a crucial player in the North American supply chain. The company primarily transports bulk commodities, including grain, coal, and potash, alongside intermodal shipping services. Investors are drawn to CP for its strong financial performance, robust operating margins, and its strategic investments in infrastructure that aim to bolster both speed and reliability in service delivery.
In recent years, Canadian Pacific has been on a growth trajectory, bolstered by strategic acquisitions and a commitment to innovation. The railroad industry is pivotal to the economy, and as global demand for freight transportation continues to rise, CP is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends. Furthermore, CP's emphasis on sustainability through initiatives such as fuel-efficient locomotives and reduced greenhouse gas emissions aligns with the increasing focus on environmental responsibility among investors. As it navigates a rapidly evolving landscape marked by technological advancements and changing consumer behaviors, CP aims to enhance shareholder value while maintaining its reputation as a reliable and essential service provider in the freight transportation sector. For investors, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. presents an opportunity to engage with a historically significant company that is adept at adapting to the challenges of modern logistics.
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP) operates primarily in the transportation sector, providing freight rail services across North America. The company’s core business segments can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Freight Transportation:
- Grain and Fertilizers: CP provides transportation solutions for agricultural products, including grain and fertilizer. This segment leverages Canada's vast agricultural output and is vital for the economy.
- Intermodal: CP operates intermodal services that transport containers and trailers, providing a crucial link between rail and road transport, facilitating efficient logistics for shippers.
- Metals and Minerals: This includes the transportation of products such as coal, iron ore, and other raw materials essential for several industries, particularly construction and manufacturing.
- Forest Products: CP transports lumber, wood products, and other forest-related commodities, supporting the forestry industry in Canada and the U.S.
- Automotive: The railway also plays a role in the transportation of finished vehicles, serving the automotive industry, which is significant in both Canadian and U.S. economies.
- Chemical and Petroleum Products: This segment involves the transportation of chemicals and petroleum-based products, catering to industrial sectors and energy producers.
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Network Operations:
- CP's operations are supported by an extensive rail network that spans key regions in Canada and the northern United States. This includes strategic mainline routes that connect major cities and industrial hubs, facilitating efficient movement of goods.
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Logistics and Supply Chain Solutions:
- Beyond traditional rail services, CP offers integrated logistics solutions, including warehousing and distribution, to enhance customer supply chains. This segment emphasizes the importance of value-added services and operational efficiency.
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Infrastructure Investments:
- CP continually invests in maintaining and upgrading its railway infrastructure, which supports safety, efficiency, and the overall capacity of the rail network to meet growing freight demands.
By focusing on these core segments, Canadian Pacific Railway is well-positioned to leverage its asset base and operational efficiencies while meeting the diverse transportation needs of its customers across North America.
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP) has several unique competitive advantages that enable it to stand out in the highly competitive rail transport industry. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Strategic Geographic Position: CP operates a network that connects key markets in Canada and the U.S. Midwest, as well as access to the ports on the Pacific Coast. This geographical positioning allows CP to facilitate trade between North America and international markets, especially in Asia.
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Efficient Asset Utilization: CP has focused on precision scheduled railroading, which emphasizes efficiency and productivity. This operational model allows CP to maximize the use of its assets, offering faster and more reliable service while reducing costs.
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Strong Management Team: With a history of strong leadership, CP has benefited from a management team that understands the intricacies of rail transport. Their strategic vision has been effective in improving operational efficiency and reducing operating ratios.
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Diversified Freight Portfolio: CP transports a wide range of goods, including grain, coal, intermodal containers, automotive products, and chemicals. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with reliance on any single commodity, providing stability in revenues.
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Investment in Technology: CP has made significant investments in technology, including advanced train control systems and digitalization. These investments enhance safety, optimize routing, and improve overall service reliability and efficiency.
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Strong Environmental Commitment: CP is committed to sustainability, which resonates with customers and investors increasingly focused on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Their low greenhouse gas emissions per ton-mile can appeal to environmentally conscious businesses looking to reduce their carbon footprints.
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Robust Safety Record: CP has consistently worked towards improving safety performance, which enhances its reputation and reliability. A strong safety record can also result in lower insurance costs and less downtime from accidents.
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Long-Term Contracts: CP has established long-term contracts with key customers, providing revenue stability and predictability. These contracts can create customer loyalty and lock in business.
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Strong Brand Recognition: As one of North America's oldest and most established railways, CP benefits from strong brand recognition, which can facilitate partnerships and attract new customers.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd is well-positioned to compete effectively against its rivals in the rail transportation sector.
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP) operates within a complex environment influenced by various risks and challenges. Here are several key risks and challenges the company may face in the near future:
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Economic Cycles: Freight rail services are closely tied to economic conditions. A downturn in the economy can reduce demand for transportation services, negatively impacting revenue.
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Competition: CP faces significant competition from other railroads and alternative transportation modes, like trucking. Enhancements in truck efficiency or intermodal services could impact rail freight volumes.
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Regulatory Environment: The railway industry is heavily regulated. Changes in policies or new regulations related to safety, environmental standards, or operations can impose additional costs or operational restrictions.
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Infrastructure and Maintenance Costs: Maintaining and upgrading rail infrastructure requires substantial capital expenditure. Delays or increased costs in these projects can challenge operational efficiency and financial performance.
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Labor Relations: CP must navigate complex labor relations and negotiations. Strikes, work stoppages, or labor disputes can disrupt operations and affect service delivery.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing scrutiny regarding emissions and environmental impacts is pressing for the rail industry. Adapting to these concerns and implementing sustainable practices can be costly, yet necessary.
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Technological Disruptions: The transportation industry is evolving with new technologies (e.g., automated freight transport, advanced logistics systems). CP must continuously innovate to remain competitive.
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Supply Chain Vulnerabilities: Global supply chain disruptions (e.g., those stemming from pandemics or geopolitical tensions) can limit freight volumes and service reliability.
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Climate Change: Extreme weather events (droughts, floods, etc.) can disrupt operations, damage infrastructure, and pose operational risks.
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Carriage and Cargo Types: Changes in the production and transportation of key commodities (like oil, coal, or grain) can significantly influence demand for CP’s services. A shift away from traditional commodities could impact revenues.
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Foreign Exchange Rates: Since CP conducts business across borders, fluctuations in currency rates could affect profitability and pricing competitiveness.
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Mergers and Acquisitions: CP's efforts to pursue growth through mergers and acquisitions can introduce execution risks and potential antitrust concerns.
By proactively addressing these risks and challenges, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd can enhance its resilience and maintain its competitive position in the rail industry.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
Current Assets | 3.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 463m |
Receivables | 1.9B |
Other Current Assets | 668m |
Non-Current Assets | 79.2B |
Long-Term Investments | 555m |
PP&E | 53.2B |
Intangibles | 21.1B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 4.2B |
Current Liabilities | 5.8B |
Accounts Payable | 2.6B |
Short-Term Debt | 378m |
Other Current Liabilities | 2.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 32.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 18.7B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 13.6B |
Earnings Waterfall
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
Revenue
|
14.4B
CAD
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Cost of Revenue
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-2.2B
CAD
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Gross Profit
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12.2B
CAD
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Operating Expenses
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-7B
CAD
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Operating Income
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5.2B
CAD
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Other Expenses
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-1.6B
CAD
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Net Income
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3.5B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
CPKC delivered a solid third quarter with revenues of $3.5 billion, up 6%, and EPS of $0.99, marking an 8% increase. Despite operational challenges, including a strike, the company achieved over 4% volume growth and is on track for double-digit earnings growth for the year. Notably, grain revenues rose 10% due to strong production and favorable market connections. Looking forward, CPKC anticipates continued growth in grain and potash, with a positive outlook on operating margins, projecting a core adjusted operating ratio of 62.9%. The company's merger initiatives are expected to foster mid-single-digit volume growth into 2025.
What is Earnings Call?
CP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CP Price Targets Summary
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CP is 128.87 CAD with a low forecast of 101 CAD and a high forecast of 143.85 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CP is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. operates as a holding company, which engages in the provision of rail service. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 11,834 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2001-10-03. The firm provides rail and intermodal transportation services over a network of approximately 13,000 miles, directly serving the principal business centers of Canada from Montreal, Quebec, to Vancouver, British Columbia, and the United States Northeast and Midwest regions. The firm transports bulk commodities, merchandise freight and intermodal traffic. Its bulk commodities include grain, coal, potash, and fertilizers and sulphur. Its merchandise freight consists of industrial and consumer products, such as energy, chemicals and plastics, metals, minerals and consumer products, forest products, and automotive. Its intermodal traffic consists of retail goods in overseas containers that can be transported by train, ship and truck, and in domestic containers and trailers that can be moved by train and truck.
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The intrinsic value of one CP stock under the Base Case scenario is 120.87 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 107.25 CAD, Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd is Undervalued by 11%.