Reddit Inc
NYSE:RDDT
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one RDDT stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.88 USD. Compared to the current market price of 158.02 USD, Reddit Inc is Overvalued by 80%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Reddit Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Reddit Inc
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Reddit Inc. has emerged as a powerhouse in the social media landscape, offering a unique platform that fosters community engagement through user-generated content and discussions. Founded in 2005, Reddit has grown into one of the largest online communities, boasting over 430 million monthly active users who contribute to diverse forums known as "subreddits." These subreddits cater to virtually every imaginable interest, providing a space for individuals to connect, share information, and collaborate on hobbies, news, and more. The company's business model capitalizes on advertising revenue, premium memberships, and partnerships, creating multiple revenue streams that enhance its financial re...
Reddit Inc. has emerged as a powerhouse in the social media landscape, offering a unique platform that fosters community engagement through user-generated content and discussions. Founded in 2005, Reddit has grown into one of the largest online communities, boasting over 430 million monthly active users who contribute to diverse forums known as "subreddits." These subreddits cater to virtually every imaginable interest, providing a space for individuals to connect, share information, and collaborate on hobbies, news, and more. The company's business model capitalizes on advertising revenue, premium memberships, and partnerships, creating multiple revenue streams that enhance its financial resilience.
As an investment opportunity, Reddit stands out for its robust community-centric approach that cultivates loyalty and user engagement, which can translate to stable advertising growth. The company recently expanded its advertising capabilities, enabling targeted campaigns and attracting major brands that seek to reach engaged audiences. Furthermore, its commitment to innovation, exemplified by initiatives such as the introduction of social and interactive features, positions Reddit favorably in the competitive social media market. With a strong emphasis on user experience and continuous adaptation to market trends, Reddit Inc. is not just a social platform; it has become a cultural phenomenon that investors should closely monitor as it navigates its path toward potential profitability and long-term growth.
Reddit Inc. operates primarily through several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue and user engagement. Here are the key segments:
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Advertising Revenue:
- Sponsored Posts: Reddit allows brands to create sponsored content that blends into the platform's organic posts. This segment includes display ads, video ads, and other promotional formats.
- Targeted Advertising: Reddit offers advertisers the ability to target specific communities (subreddits) and user demographics, maximizing ad effectiveness.
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Premium Subscriptions:
- Reddit Premium: This subscription service provides users with an ad-free experience, access to exclusive features, and a certain amount of Reddit Coins each month, incentivizing user loyalty and enhancing user experience.
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User-Generated Content:
- Community Engagement: Subreddits are a vital part of Reddit's ecosystem, allowing users to create content, engage in discussions, and moderate their communities. This user-generated content drives organic traffic and keeps users engaged with the platform.
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Content Partnerships:
- Reddit often collaborates with content creators, brands, and media companies, fostering partnerships that can drive traffic and engagement, and create additional revenue streams through content trading or shared promotions.
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Data and Insights:
- Although not a direct revenue stream, Reddit leverages the vast amounts of user data generated on the platform for insights that can inform business strategies, improve ad targeting, and understand user behavior, which can be monetized indirectly.
These core segments allow Reddit to maintain its position as a popular social media platform while generating diverse revenue streams. The focus on community-driven content and active user engagement differentiates Reddit from other social networks, creating unique opportunities for advertisers and partners.
Reddit Inc. holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the social media and online community space:
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Community-Centric Model: Reddit operates on a community-based model where users can create and participate in various subreddits. This fosters niche communities that cater to specific interests, allowing for deeper engagement than many more generalized platforms.
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User-Generated Content and Moderation: The platform's reliance on user-generated content and volunteer moderators enables organic growth and maintenance of content quality. This community moderation system often results in authentic discussions that can be more engaging than content from curated feeds on other platforms.
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Anonymity and Privacy: Reddit allows users to maintain anonymity, which can encourage open discussions and honesty without the fear of personal judgement. This aspect attracts users who prefer a less personal, more idea-driven interaction compared to platforms that emphasize real identities.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: While many social media platforms focus heavily on advertising, Reddit has diversified its revenue through premium memberships (Reddit Premium), sponsorships, and community-specific advertising, giving it a buffer against market volatility solely dependent on ad sales.
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Strong Engagement Metrics: Reddit often sees high levels of engagement with its content through upvotes, comments, and sharing. This can create a feedback loop where popular content surfaces and keeps users returning for more interaction.
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Innovative Features and Adaptability: The platform continuously evolves with features like Live Reddit, video content, and AMAs (Ask Me Anything), which keep users engaged and differentiate it from competitors that may not innovate as rapidly.
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User Loyalty and Brand Advocacy: Reddit's unique culture often cultivates strong user loyalty, turning members into passionate advocates. This community-driven loyalty can be a powerful asset in retaining users and attracting new ones through word-of-mouth.
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Rich Data Use: The vast data generated from interactions enables Reddit to refine algorithms and tailor user experiences more effectively than rivals. This data can also be leveraged for targeted advertising that thus is more relevant to users.
Each of these advantages helps Reddit carve out a unique position in the crowded social media landscape, allowing it to maintain and grow its user base while fostering community interaction in a way that rivals find difficult to replicate.
Reddit Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can affect its growth, profitability, and overall stability. Here are some key considerations:
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Regulatory Scrutiny: As with many tech companies, Reddit may face increased regulatory oversight regarding user data privacy, content moderation, and anti-trust issues. Changes in laws and regulations could impact its operational procedures and costs.
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Monetization Challenges: Reddit's advertising revenue relies heavily on attracting advertisers in a competitive digital marketing landscape. If the platform struggles to prove its effectiveness or sustain growth in ad revenue, it could hinder its financial performance.
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Content Moderation: Reddit’s success is built on user-generated content, which can lead to issues with moderation and harmful content. Striking a balance between free speech and creating a safe environment is a challenging task that could lead to reputational risks and potential legal issues.
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Competition: The social media landscape is highly competitive, with platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and newer entrants continuously vying for user engagement. Reddit needs to differentiate itself and retain its user base against these competitors.
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User Base Diversification: While Reddit has a loyal user base, it may face challenges in attracting a more diverse audience. If it fails to engage younger demographics or international users effectively, stagnation may occur.
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Technical Issues and Security Threats: As a tech platform, Reddit faces risks related to outages, cybersecurity threats, and data breaches. Technical problems can disrupt user engagement and trust, while breaches can lead to reputational damage and legal ramifications.
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Economic Downturns: Economic fluctuations can adversely affect advertising budgets for companies that fund Reddit’s revenue. In a recession, advertisers may cut spending, impacting Reddit’s financial health.
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Platform Changes and User Experience: Alterations to the platform, such as changes in user interface or functionality, can affect user engagement. If these changes are poorly received, they could lead to user dissatisfaction and attrition.
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Community Management: Reddit operates with numerous communities (subreddits) that require active management. Issues in specific subreddits—ranging from conflicts among users to controversies—can affect the platform’s overall perception and operation.
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Emerging Technologies and Trends: Keeping up with technological advancements and changing user behaviors, such as mobile usage and the rise of short-form content, is crucial. Failure to adapt could result in a decline in relevance.
In summary, Reddit must navigate a complex landscape of regulatory pressures, competition, user engagement, and evolving market dynamics while ensuring its platform remains a safe and vibrant community for its users. Addressing these risks proactively is vital for its long-term success.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Reddit Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Reddit Inc
Current Assets | 2.1B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 1.7B |
Receivables | 293.9m |
Other Current Assets | 21.9m |
Non-Current Assets | 110.9m |
PP&E | 37.6m |
Intangibles | 70.1m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3.2m |
Current Liabilities | 172.3m |
Accounts Payable | 62m |
Accrued Liabilities | 82.3m |
Other Current Liabilities | 27.9m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 21.8m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 21.8m |
Earnings Waterfall
Reddit Inc
Revenue
|
1.1B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-120.7m
USD
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Gross Profit
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1B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-1.6B
USD
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Operating Income
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-610.4m
USD
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Other Expenses
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73.6m
USD
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Net Income
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-536.8m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Reddit Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the third quarter of 2024, Reddit achieved remarkable growth, averaging over 97 million daily active users (DAUs), a 47% increase year-over-year. Revenue surged 68% to $348.4 million, driven by a 56% rise in advertising. Notably, Reddit attained GAAP profitability with a net income of $30 million. The operating cash flow was reported at $72 million with free cash flow reaching $70 million. For Q4, guidance suggests revenue between $385 million and $400 million, reflecting 54% to 60% growth year-over-year, alongside an adjusted EBITDA of $110 million to $125 million, indicating a 30% margin.
What is Earnings Call?
RDDT Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Reddit Inc's profitability score is 29/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Reddit Inc's profitability score is 29/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
RDDT Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Reddit Inc's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Reddit Inc's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
RDDT Price Targets Summary
Reddit Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDDT is 116.7 USD with a low forecast of 70.7 USD and a high forecast of 157.5 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for RDDT is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
RDDT Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Reddit is an American social news aggregation, content rating, and forum social network. Registered users (commonly referred to as "Redditors") submit content to the site such as links, text posts, images, and videos, which are then voted up or down by other members. Posts are organized by subject into user-created boards called "communities" or "subreddits". Submissions with more upvotes appear towards the top of their subreddit and, if they receive enough upvotes, ultimately on the site's front page. Reddit administrators moderate the communities. Moderation is also conducted by community-specific moderators, who are not Reddit employees. It is operated by Reddit Inc., based in San Francisco.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one RDDT stock under the Base Case scenario is 30.88 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 158.02 USD, Reddit Inc is Overvalued by 80%.