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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one SHEL stock under the Base Case scenario is 7 894.05 GBX. Compared to the current market price of 2 561 GBX, Shell PLC is Undervalued by 68%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Shell PLC
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Fundamental Analysis
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Shell PLC, a global energy titan and one of the largest integrated oil and gas companies in the world, has woven its legacy over 110 years, rooted in innovation and adaptability. Originally starting as a small trader in oil and kerosene, Shell has transformed into a powerhouse that operates across the entire energy value chain, from exploration and production to refining and distribution. With a robust presence in over 70 countries, Shell is not only deeply involved in conventional energy sectors but is also pivoting towards cleaner, sustainable solutions, reflecting the evolving landscape of global energy demands. Through strategic investments in renewable energy technologies, including win...
Shell PLC, a global energy titan and one of the largest integrated oil and gas companies in the world, has woven its legacy over 110 years, rooted in innovation and adaptability. Originally starting as a small trader in oil and kerosene, Shell has transformed into a powerhouse that operates across the entire energy value chain, from exploration and production to refining and distribution. With a robust presence in over 70 countries, Shell is not only deeply involved in conventional energy sectors but is also pivoting towards cleaner, sustainable solutions, reflecting the evolving landscape of global energy demands. Through strategic investments in renewable energy technologies, including wind, solar, and biofuels, Shell seeks to balance profitability with ecological responsibility, making it an intriguing entity for investors who are keen on sustainable growth.
In recent years, Shell has focused on enhancing operational efficiency and managing costs, all while navigating the complexities of geopolitical risks and regulatory challenges. The company is committed to its ambitious target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, a goal that positions it favorably in the eyes of environmentally conscious investors. Strong financial performance, supported by healthy dividend payouts and a disciplined approach to capital expenditure, makes Shell an attractive choice for those looking for stability and value in their portfolios. As the world transitions to a lower-carbon future, Shell stands at a crossroads, poised to leverage its vast resources and expertise to lead the charge in energy innovation, ensuring that it not only meets today’s energy needs but also secures a sustainable path for tomorrow.
Shell PLC, a global energy company, operates through several core business segments, reflecting its diverse portfolio in the energy sector. As of the latest data up to 2023, the core business segments of Shell typically include:
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Exploration and Production (E&P):
- This segment focuses on the exploration and extraction of oil and natural gas. Shell operates in various regions around the world, including offshore and onshore areas. It is involved in the discovery of new reserves and the development of existing fields.
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Integrated Gas:
- Shell's Integrated Gas division encompasses liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations and gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology. This segment includes the production, transport, and marketing of LNG, as well as the conversion of natural gas into liquid hydrocarbons. Shell is one of the largest traders of LNG globally.
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Refining and Products:
- This segment involves the refining of crude oil into various products such as gasoline, diesel, and petrochemicals. Shell operates refineries and is engaged in the distribution and marketing of refined products. It also includes the sale of lubricants and other chemical products.
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Renewables and Energy Solutions:
- Shell has been increasingly investing in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydrogen. This segment focuses on the development and operation of renewable energy projects, as well as providing energy solutions that help customers reduce their carbon footprint.
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Marketing:
- Shell's marketing segment deals with the retail distribution of fuel and other products through its global network of service stations. This includes fuel sales, convenience store operations, and car wash services. Shell’s brand is one of the most recognized in the consumer market.
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Trading and Supply:
- This segment is responsible for trading and managing commodity supply chains. Shell is involved in the buying and selling of crude oil, refined products, and natural gas, optimizing logistics and pricing strategies.
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Corporate:
- The corporate segment includes Shell’s centralized corporate functions, such as finance, human resources, and governance, which support the various operations and strategies across the company.
Overall, Shell PLC's diverse business segments reflect its strategy to adapt to the evolving energy landscape, balancing traditional fossil fuel operations with a growing emphasis on sustainable energy solutions.
Shell PLC holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the global energy sector:
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Integrated Business Model: Shell operates across the entire energy value chain, including exploration, production, refining, distribution, and marketing. This vertical integration allows for operational efficiencies and risk management across different market segments.
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Diverse Energy Portfolio: Shell has a broad mix of energy sources, including oil, natural gas, and renewable energy. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with price volatility in any single commodity and positions Shell well for the energy transition.
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Strong Research and Development (R&D): Shell invests significantly in R&D, particularly in sustainable energy technologies and innovations (e.g., biofuels, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage). This positions the company to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments related to climate change.
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Global Presence: Shell has a well-established global footprint, with operations in over 70 countries. This extensive reach provides access to a wide range of markets and resources, enhancing its ability to navigate geopolitical risks.
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Financial Strength: Shell’s robust financial position, supported by strong cash flows and a history of prudent capital management, allows the company to invest in new technologies and explore new markets while providing shareholder returns.
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Strong Brand and Reputation: Shell has built a strong global brand associated with reliability and safety. Its commitment to sustainability and corporate responsibility enhances its reputation and customer loyalty.
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Advanced Supply Chain Management: Shell's sophisticated supply chain capabilities enable it to optimize costs, manage logistics efficiently, and respond quickly to changes in demand. This agility is crucial in a highly competitive market.
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Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: Shell engages in strategic partnerships with other energy companies, governments, and organizations, allowing it to share resources, reduce risk, and accelerate innovation in emerging energy sectors.
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Sustainability Focus: With a clear commitment to reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy, Shell is positioning itself as a leader in sustainable practices, which can appeal to climate-conscious investors and consumers.
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Customer-Centric Solutions: Shell's focus on customer-centric energy solutions, including electric vehicle charging infrastructure and other low-carbon offerings, provides it a competitive edge as the market shifts towards more sustainable energy consumption.
These competitive advantages allow Shell to navigate the challenges of the energy market effectively while positioning itself for future growth in a rapidly changing industry.
Shell PLC, like many companies in the energy sector, faces a variety of risks and challenges in the near future. These can be categorized into several key areas:
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Regulatory and Legal Risks:
- Stricter Environmental Regulations: Increasing global emphasis on reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to renewable energy may lead to stricter regulations that could impact Shell's operations.
- Litigation Risks: Shell may face lawsuits related to environmental damage or climate change liability, which can result in financial penalties and reputational damage.
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Market Risks:
- Volatility in Oil and Gas Prices: Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices can significantly affect Shell’s revenue and profitability.
- Demand Destruction: A shift towards renewable energy sources and electric vehicles could lead to a decrease in demand for fossil fuels.
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Transition Risks:
- Energy Transition Challenges: As Shell works towards its goal of becoming a net-zero emissions energy company, it may face challenges in transitioning its business model and investments towards renewables.
- Competitive Pressure: Increased competition from renewable energy companies may erode Shell's market share in the energy sector.
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Technological Risks:
- Need for Innovation: Shell must continuously invest in new technologies to enhance efficiency, reduce emissions, and develop sustainable energy solutions to remain competitive.
- Cybersecurity Threats: As Shell increasingly relies on digital technologies, the risk of cyberattacks could compromise operations or lead to data breaches.
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Geopolitical Risks:
- Political Instability: Shell operates in various countries that may experience political instability or civil unrest, affecting its operations and investments.
- Trade Policies: Changes in trade policies and relations may impact Shell’s global supply chains and market access.
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Reputation Risks:
- Public Perception: Consumers and investors are increasingly focused on sustainability. Negative public perception regarding environmental practices can lead to reputational harm and affect shareholder value.
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Economic Risks:
- Global Economic Slowdown: Economic downturns can lead to decreased energy demand and lower sales, impacting profitability.
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Supply Chain Disruptions:
- Shell's operations are dependent on global supply chains that can be affected by disruptions due to various factors, including natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and health crises (e.g. pandemics).
In summary, Shell PLC faces a complex interplay of risks arising from regulatory changes, market dynamics, technological advancements, geopolitical factors, and societal expectations as it navigates the transition to a more sustainable energy future. Addressing these risks effectively will be crucial for maintaining competitive advantage and achieving long-term growth.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Shell PLC
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Shell PLC
Current Assets | 128.6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 38.1B |
Receivables | 50.6B |
Other Current Assets | 39.9B |
Non-Current Assets | 266.2B |
Long-Term Investments | 28.1B |
PP&E | 189.7B |
Intangibles | 25.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 22.5B |
Current Liabilities | 91.5B |
Accounts Payable | 63.9B |
Other Current Liabilities | 27.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 117.9B |
Long-Term Debt | 64.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 53.3B |
Earnings Waterfall
Shell PLC
Revenue
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296.8B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-223.6B
USD
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Gross Profit
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73.2B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-38.9B
USD
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Operating Income
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34.2B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-18.6B
USD
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Net Income
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15.6B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Shell PLC
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In its latest earnings call, Shell reported a strong third quarter with adjusted earnings of $6 billion and cash flow from operations at $14.7 billion. The company noted robust performance across its Integrated Gas and Upstream segments, particularly from increased LNG volumes and high production output. Despite challenges in Downstream, strong marketing results offset some losses. Additionally, Shell announced a $3.5 billion share buyback program, its 12th consecutive quarter of similar announcements, while planning 2024 capital expenditures below the $22-25 billion range. The balance sheet remains strong, with net debt significantly lower than in previous years, demonstrating resilience and a commitment to shareholder returns.
What is Earnings Call?
SHEL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Shell PLC's profitability score is 53/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Shell PLC's profitability score is 53/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SHEL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Shell PLC's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Shell PLC's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SHEL Price Targets Summary
Shell PLC
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SHEL is 3 381.14 GBX with a low forecast of 2 575.5 GBX and a high forecast of 7 243.05 GBX.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for SHEL is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
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Dividend Yield
Description
Shell Plc engages in oil and natural gas production. The firm is engaged in the exploration, production, refining and marketing of oil and natural gas, and the manufacturing and marketing of chemicals. Its businesses include Upstream, Integrated Gas, Renewables and Energy Solutions, and Downstream. Its Upstream organization manages the exploration for and extraction of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids. Shell's Integrated Gas organization manages its liquefied natural gas activities and the production of gas-to-liquids fuels and other products. Renewables and Energy Solutions include hydrogen, power from renewable and low-carbon sources such as wind, solar and natural gas. Its Downstream organization manages different chemicals and products activities as part of an integrated value chain that trades and refines crude oil and other feedstocks into a range of products which are moved and marketed around the world.
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The intrinsic value of one SHEL stock under the Base Case scenario is 7 894.05 GBX.
Compared to the current market price of 2 561 GBX, Shell PLC is Undervalued by 68%.