Novatek PAO
LSE:NVTK
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one NVTK stock under the Base Case scenario is 39.33 USD. Compared to the current market price of 65.02 USD, Novatek PAO is Overvalued by 40%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Novatek PAO
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Fundamental Analysis
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Novatek PAO, established in 1994, has evolved into one of Russia’s leading independent natural gas producers, crafted by a vision of sustainable energy development. With a robust portfolio of gas fields and a strong emphasis on innovative extraction and processing techniques, Novatek's operations span across exploration, production, and processing of hydrocarbons. The company bolstered its position in the global market through strategic partnerships and investments, notably in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, creating significant opportunities for growth. The flagship Arctic LNG 2 project, for instance, aims to tap into the vast natural gas reserves of the Yamal Peninsula, promising to...
Novatek PAO, established in 1994, has evolved into one of Russia’s leading independent natural gas producers, crafted by a vision of sustainable energy development. With a robust portfolio of gas fields and a strong emphasis on innovative extraction and processing techniques, Novatek's operations span across exploration, production, and processing of hydrocarbons. The company bolstered its position in the global market through strategic partnerships and investments, notably in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, creating significant opportunities for growth. The flagship Arctic LNG 2 project, for instance, aims to tap into the vast natural gas reserves of the Yamal Peninsula, promising to be a pivotal asset in meeting global energy demands while aligning with market trends focused on cleaner, more sustainable energy sources.
As an investor, understanding Novatek's financial performance is crucial. The company has showcased impressive revenue growth and profitability, driven by its operational efficiency and competitive cost structure. Its strong balance sheet positions it well to navigate market fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities, should they arise. Additionally, Novatek has been proactive in addressing regulatory challenges and environmental considerations, aiming to balance profitability with sustainability. With the global shift towards LNG as a cleaner alternative to traditional fossil fuels, particularly in Europe and Asia, Novatek stands at the forefront, positioning itself as a significant player in the future of energy. By investing in Novatek, you are not only getting a stake in a profitable enterprise but also engaging with a company poised to adapt and thrive in an ever-evolving energy landscape.
Novatek PAO is one of the largest natural gas producers in Russia and plays a key role in the energy sector. The company focuses on several core business segments, primarily revolving around natural gas and energy production. Here are the main business segments of Novatek:
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Natural Gas Production: Novatek's primary business is the exploration and production of natural gas. The company operates several large gas fields, including the Yurkharovskoye and East-Tarkosalinskoye fields. They are involved in the production, processing, and sale of natural gas, which is a critical energy source.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): Novatek has invested significantly in the LNG segment, particularly with its Yamal LNG project, which is one of the largest LNG facilities globally. This segment involves the production, transportation, and sale of liquefied natural gas, catering to the growing demand for cleaner energy sources.
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Gas Processing and Distribution: The company also engages in gas processing activities, where raw natural gas is treated to remove impurities before it is distributed. This segment includes the processing of natural gas to produce various hydrocarbons and petrochemical products.
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Petroleum Production: In addition to natural gas, Novatek also explores and produces crude oil. While oil production is not its primary focus, this segment contributes to the company’s overall revenue and portfolio diversification.
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Marketing and Trading: Novatek participates in the marketing and trading of natural gas and LNG on both domestic and international markets. This includes establishing long-term contracts and spot market transactions to optimize sales and distribution.
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Renewable Energy and Innovation: While traditionally focused on fossil fuels, Novatek has shown interest in new energy technologies and potential investments in renewable energy, exploring how to adapt and diversify in a changing energy landscape.
These core segments highlight Novatek's strategic focus on natural gas as a cleaner energy source while also aiming for growth through LNG production and diversification into other related areas. As global energy demand evolves, Novatek’s operations are designed to align with market trends towards sustainability and safe energy production.
Novatek PAO, one of Russia’s largest natural gas producers, holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the energy sector:
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Resource Base: Novatek possesses significant natural gas reserves, particularly in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. This vast resource base gives it a strong competitive edge in production volume and cost efficiency.
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Cost Leadership: The company has implemented advanced technologies and efficient operational practices, leading to low production costs. This cost advantage enables Novatek to remain profitable even during periods of low gas prices.
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Diversified Product Portfolio: Beyond natural gas production, Novatek is involved in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production with its Yamal LNG project. This diversification helps the company mitigate risks associated with price volatility in gas markets.
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Strategic Partnerships: Novatek has formed strategic partnerships with global energy giants, including TotalEnergies and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). These collaborations allow access to technology, funding, and markets, enhancing its competitive standing.
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Infrastructure Development: Investments in infrastructure, such as transportation and processing facilities, improve operational efficiency. The company's LNG terminals and shipping capabilities position it favorably for exporting products.
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Regulatory Advantages: Being a significant player in Russia’s energy sector, Novatek often benefits from favorable regulatory conditions and government support, which may not be available to smaller or foreign competitors.
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Market Positioning: Novatek’s focus on domestic market supplies and exports to emerging markets in Asia provides it with a larger customer base, often allowing it to capture higher margins than its competitors who may focus primarily on traditional markets in Europe.
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Sustainability Initiatives: As the global energy landscape shifts towards renewable energy and lower carbon emissions, Novatek's investments in cleaner technologies and sustainable practices can differentiate it from rivals still heavily reliant on fossil fuels.
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Flexibility and Agility: As a relatively smaller company compared to state-owned giants like Gazprom, Novatek can respond more flexibly to market changes, making swift strategic decisions that can enhance its competitive advantage.
By leveraging these advantages, Novatek can maintain a strong position in the competitive energy market, capitalizing on both domestic and international opportunities.
Novatek PAO, as a major player in the natural gas industry, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key areas of concern:
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Regulatory Risks: Changes in environmental regulations, energy policies, and governmental oversight can impact operations, costs, and profitability. Increased regulations on emissions and other environmental impacts may lead to higher compliance costs.
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Geopolitical Tensions: Novatek operates primarily in Russia, and geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning relations with Western countries, can affect its operations, market access, and ability to engage in international trade.
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Market Volatility: The natural gas market is subject to price fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, competition from alternative energy sources, and economic conditions. Volatile prices can impact revenue and profitability.
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Technological Changes: Rapid advancements in alternative energy technologies and shifts towards renewable energy sources could pose a challenge to traditional fossil fuel companies. Novatek must innovate to remain competitive.
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Operational Challenges: The company may face challenges related to infrastructure, supply chain disruptions, and maintaining efficient operations, particularly in remote or harsh environments.
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Financial Risks: Access to financing, fluctuations in currency exchange rates (especially the ruble), and changes in interest rates could affect the company’s cost of capital and financial stability.
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Competition: Increasing competition from both state-controlled and private energy companies, as well as new entrants focusing on renewable energy, could erode Novatek's market share.
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Sustainability and ESG Concerns: Growing investor and societal focus on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria can lead to pressure on traditional energy firms to adopt more sustainable practices or shift their business models.
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Infrastructure Limitations: Limited pipeline infrastructure and challenges in logistics may restrict the company’s ability to transport and export gas effectively, particularly in light of sanctions or international trade barriers.
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Global Economic Conditions: Global economic uncertainty and fluctuations can impact demand for natural gas, particularly in major markets like Europe and Asia, where economic downturns could lead to reduced energy consumption.
In summary, Novatek PAO must navigate a complex landscape of regulatory, geopolitical, competitive, and technological challenges while maintaining operational efficiency and adapting to a rapidly changing energy market.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Novatek PAO
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Novatek PAO
Current Assets | 562.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 157.7B |
Receivables | 218.7B |
Other Current Assets | 185.8B |
Non-Current Assets | 2.7T |
Long-Term Investments | 618.1B |
PP&E | 1.2T |
Other Non-Current Assets | 879.7B |
Current Liabilities | 301.6B |
Accounts Payable | 217.4B |
Other Current Liabilities | 84.2B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 324B |
Long-Term Debt | 205.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 118.6B |
Earnings Waterfall
Novatek PAO
Revenue
|
1.4T
RUB
|
Cost of Revenue
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-570.5B
RUB
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Gross Profit
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801B
RUB
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Operating Expenses
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-433.4B
RUB
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Operating Income
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367.5B
RUB
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Other Expenses
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95.5B
RUB
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Net Income
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463B
RUB
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Novatek PAO
RUB | |
Free Cash Flow | RUB |
NVTK Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Novatek PAO's profitability score is 63/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Novatek PAO's profitability score is 63/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
NVTK Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Novatek PAO's solvency score is 59/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Novatek PAO's solvency score is 59/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
NVTK Price Targets Summary
Novatek PAO
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for NVTK is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
NOVATEK JSC engages in the exploration, production, processing and marketing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. The firm is engaged in the exploration and production, processing, transportation and marketing of natural gas and liquid hydrocarbons. The firm's primary production assets are located in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region (YNAO). The firm delivers its natural gas on the Russian Federation's domestic market and liquid hydrocarbons on both the Russian domestic and international markets. The firm has approximately 40 licenses on exploration and production in YNAO with approximately 12.8 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of total proved reserves. The firm holds a range of licenses, which include Yurkharovskoye field, East-Tarkosalinskoye field, Khancheyskoye field, Olimpiyskiy license area, Yumantilskiy license area, Samburgskiy license area, North-Urengoyskoye field, North-Khancheyskoye field, Yaro-Yakhinskiy license area, Termokarstovoye field and Yarudeyskoye field.
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The intrinsic value of one NVTK stock under the Base Case scenario is 39.33 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 65.02 USD, Novatek PAO is Overvalued by 40%.