Volkswagen AG
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one VOW stock under the Base Case scenario is 260.16 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 83.6 EUR, Volkswagen AG is Undervalued by 68%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Volkswagen AG
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Fundamental Analysis
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Volkswagen AG, a titan in the global automotive industry, weaves a narrative rooted in innovation, sustainability, and unparalleled engineering prowess. Founded in 1937, the company has grown from its iconic Beetle to encompass a diverse portfolio of brands, including Audi, Porsche, SEAT, and Škoda. With its headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany, Volkswagen has strategically positioned itself as a leader in both traditional and electric vehicle segments, aiming to capture the growing demand for eco-friendly transportation solutions. The company has committed to substantial investments in electric mobility, targeting a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2025 by launching numerous elect...
Volkswagen AG, a titan in the global automotive industry, weaves a narrative rooted in innovation, sustainability, and unparalleled engineering prowess. Founded in 1937, the company has grown from its iconic Beetle to encompass a diverse portfolio of brands, including Audi, Porsche, SEAT, and Škoda. With its headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany, Volkswagen has strategically positioned itself as a leader in both traditional and electric vehicle segments, aiming to capture the growing demand for eco-friendly transportation solutions. The company has committed to substantial investments in electric mobility, targeting a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2025 by launching numerous electric models under its "New Volkswagen" initiative.
As an investor, understanding Volkswagen's dual focus on traditional vehicle manufacturing and electric vehicle development is crucial. The company operates in competitive markets worldwide, leveraging economies of scale and a robust global supply chain to optimize production efficiency. Recent initiatives, such as the rollout of its ID series of electric vehicles, underline its commitment to innovation and market relevance. Volkswagen's diverse brand portfolio not only hedges against market volatility but also provides multiple revenue streams across different segments. With ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and navigate regulatory challenges, investors may find Volkswagen AG poised for long-term growth amidst the dynamic landscape of the automotive industry.
Volkswagen AG, one of the world's leading automotive manufacturers, has a diversified portfolio with several core business segments. Here are the primary segments:
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Passenger Cars: This segment includes the production of a wide range of passenger vehicles under various brands. Key brands under this segment include Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, SEAT, and Škoda. The company focuses on innovations in electric vehicles (EVs) and sustainable mobility.
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Commercial Vehicles: This segment encompasses the manufacturing of light and heavy commercial vehicles, including vans, trucks, and buses. Brands such as Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, MAN, and Scania operate under this umbrella, catering to different market needs and requirements.
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Financial Services: Volkswagen Financial Services provides a range of financial products, including vehicle financing, leasing solutions, and insurance services to customers and dealerships. This segment plays a crucial role in facilitating vehicle sales and enhancing customer loyalty.
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Mobility Solutions: As part of its strategic focus on future mobility, Volkswagen is investing in mobility services, including ride-sharing, car-sharing, and autonomous vehicle technology. This segment aims to adapt to changing consumer preferences and environmental demands.
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Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Volkswagen has made significant investments in developing electric and hybrid vehicles as part of its strategy to transition to sustainable mobility. This initiative includes the launch of the ID. family of electric vehicles and increasing production capabilities for EVs.
Volkswagen AG's diversified approach across these segments allows it to leverage synergies, innovate technologies, and adapt to evolving market dynamics while addressing global challenges such as sustainability and digitalization.
Volkswagen AG possesses several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the automotive industry. Here are some key factors:
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Diverse Brand Portfolio: Volkswagen operates numerous well-established brands, including Audi, Porsche, Bentley, Lamborghini, SEAT, and Škoda. This diversification allows VW to capture different market segments, ranging from low-cost to luxury vehicles, catering to a wide array of consumer preferences.
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Economies of Scale: As one of the largest automotive manufacturers globally, Volkswagen benefits from economies of scale in production, procurement, and R&D. This scale allows for cost-effective production processes, which can enhance profitability and competitive pricing.
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Global Manufacturing Footprint: Volkswagen has a robust global manufacturing base, with plants in strategic locations worldwide. This geographical diversification helps mitigate risks associated with local market fluctuations and allows VW to tailor products to regional demands.
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Strong R&D Capabilities: Volkswagen invests heavily in research and development, particularly focused on electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous driving technologies. The company’s commitment to innovation positions it well in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
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Electric Vehicle (EV) Strategy: VW has made a significant commitment to electric mobility, launching its ID family of electric vehicles and establishing a roadmap to electrify a substantial portion of its vehicle lineup. This proactive approach can enhance its market position as consumer demand for EVs grows.
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Strong Reputation and Brand Loyalty: Volkswagen has a long history and a strong reputation for quality engineering and reliability. This brand loyalty can lead to repeat customers and a solid customer base for new models.
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Robust Supply Chain Management: Volkswagen has developed strong relationships with suppliers and enhanced its supply chain resilience, particularly in light of recent disruptions caused by the pandemic and semiconductor shortages. This strength can help maintain production efficiency and manage costs effectively.
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Financial Strength: VW’s strong financial position allows it to invest in new technologies, marketing, and expansion efforts. This financial stability is a significant advantage in an industry that requires substantial capital investment.
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Sustainability Initiatives: Volkswagen is increasingly focusing on sustainability, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality across its operations. This commitment not only aligns with global trends but also attracts environmentally-conscious consumers.
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Connected Mobility Solutions: Volkswagen is investing in technology related to connected vehicles and mobility services, enhancing customer experience and maintaining relevance in a market that increasingly values digital solutions.
These competitive advantages position Volkswagen AG strategically to navigate challenges in the automotive industry and capitalize on emerging opportunities, particularly in the context of the shift towards electric and autonomous vehicles.
Volkswagen AG faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can be categorized into various areas:
1. Regulatory and Compliance Risks
- Emissions Standards: Ongoing scrutiny related to emissions scandals, including compliance with stringent regulations in the EU, US, and other markets.
- Environmental Regulations: Increasing environmental regulations may require substantial investment in R&D and technology to meet future standards.
2. Market Competition
- Evolving Automotive Landscape: Intense competition from both traditional automotive manufacturers and new entrants, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market.
- Pricing Pressure: Competitive pricing strategies could affect profit margins and overall sales.
3. Technological Transformation
- EV Transition: The need for rapid development and production of electric vehicles to meet consumer demand and regulatory requirements.
- Software and Connectivity: Investing in software developments and connected services, which are critical in the modern automotive environment.
4. Supply Chain Interruptions
- Global Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing challenges from global supply chain issues, including semiconductor shortages and other material shortages impacting production schedules.
- Raw Material Costs: Fluctuations in the costs of raw materials, particularly lithium and cobalt for battery production, which can affect cost structures.
5. Geopolitical Issues
- Trade Policies: Tariffs, trade restrictions, and tariffs can affect profitability and market access.
- Political Instability: Operating in multiple markets subject to political changes that could impact operations or demand.
6. Consumer Preferences
- Changing Consumer Behavior: Shifts in consumer preference towards sustainability and electric vehicles necessitate adaptation in strategy and product offerings.
- Mobility Solutions: The growth of alternative mobility solutions (e.g., ride-sharing, public transport) may affect traditional car ownership models.
7. Reputation Management
- Brand Image: Overcoming the long-term impacts of the emissions scandal on brand reputation and customer trust.
- Social Responsibility: Meeting societal expectations related to corporate social responsibility and sustainability.
8. Financial Considerations
- Profitability and Costs: Managing operating costs while investing heavily in new technologies can strain financial resources.
- Debt Levels: Monitoring and managing debt levels especially if new investments are financed through borrowing.
9. Market Dynamics
- Economic Fluctuations: Economic downturns or fluctuations can impact consumer spending on new vehicles.
- Interest Rate Changes: Rising interest rates may affect auto financing rates, potentially leading to decreased sales.
10. Talent Acquisition and Retention
- Labor Market Competition: The need for skilled labor in software, engineering, and manufacturing may lead to challenges in recruiting and retaining top talent.
By recognizing and preparing for these risks and challenges, Volkswagen AG can position itself strategically to navigate the complexities of the automotive market in the near future.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Volkswagen AG
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Volkswagen AG
Current Assets | 260.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 77.8B |
Receivables | 121.6B |
Other Current Assets | 61.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 369.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 46.3B |
PP&E | 135.2B |
Intangibles | 91.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 97.2B |
Current Liabilities | 228.9B |
Accounts Payable | 31.6B |
Other Current Liabilities | 197.3B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 223.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 126.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 96.6B |
Earnings Waterfall
Volkswagen AG
Revenue
|
324.8B
EUR
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-264B
EUR
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Gross Profit
|
60.8B
EUR
|
Operating Expenses
|
-38.2B
EUR
|
Operating Income
|
22.7B
EUR
|
Other Expenses
|
-7.8B
EUR
|
Net Income
|
14.9B
EUR
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Volkswagen AG
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
Volkswagen's Q1 results reveal a mixed picture. Sales declined slightly to 2.1 million vehicles, with significant growth in China offset by weaker performance in Europe. Revenues dipped 1% to €75.5 billion, while operating profit stood at €4.6 billion, reflecting a 6.1% margin. Despite supply chain issues and higher R&D spending, the company maintains its full-year outlook, expecting up to 5% revenue growth and a 7-7.5% operating margin. Future prospects include new model launches and efficiency gains to tackle wage and cost pressures.
What is Earnings Call?
VOW Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Volkswagen AG's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Volkswagen AG's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
VOW Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Volkswagen AG's solvency score is 48/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Volkswagen AG's solvency score is 48/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
VOW Price Targets Summary
Volkswagen AG
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VOW is 123.42 EUR with a low forecast of 103.02 EUR and a high forecast of 142.8 EUR.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for VOW is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
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Dividend Yield
Description
Volkswagen AG engages in the production and sale of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The company is headquartered in Wolfsburg, Niedersachsen and currently employs 672,789 full-time employees. The firm operates through four segments: Passenger Cars, which covers the development of vehicles and engines, the production and sale of passenger cars, and the corresponding genuine parts business; Commercial vehicles, which comprises the development, production and sale of light commercial vehicles, trucks and buses, the genuine parts business and related services; Power Engineering, which consists of the development and production of diesel engines, turbo compressors, industrial turbines and chemical reactor systems, the production of gear units, propulsion components and testing systems, and Financial Services, which comprises dealer and customer financing, leasing, banking and insurance activities, fleet management and mobility services. It's brand portfolio includes Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, SKODA, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, Ducati, Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania and MAN.
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The intrinsic value of one VOW stock under the Base Case scenario is 260.16 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 83.6 EUR, Volkswagen AG is Undervalued by 68%.