Tonies SE

XETRA:TNIE

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Q3 Growth and Promising Outlook for Tonies

In Q3 2024, Tonies achieved a remarkable 21% revenue growth, reaching EUR 95 million, with North America up 40%. Year-to-date growth is at 26%. The company expects full-year revenues of EUR 480 million, with North America exceeding EUR 200 million. Importantly, adjusted EBITDA margins are projected to improve to 6%-8%, up from 4% in 2023. They also anticipate positive free cash flow over EUR 10 million, contrasting last year's negative EUR 5 million. With 500,000 new Toniebox families added and successful product launches, including the educational Book Tonies and Lalalinos, Tonies is poised for a strong performance in the crucial fourth quarter.

Strong Revenue Growth and Market Expansion

In the third quarter of 2024, Tonies achieved a robust revenue growth of 21%, reaching EUR 95 million. Notably, North America saw an impressive surge of 40%, which emphasizes the effectiveness of the company's international expansion strategy. Year-to-date growth stands at 26%, demonstrating a scalable business model underpinned by customer loyalty, with over 70% of Tonieboxes remaining active, leading to predictable figurine purchases. This quarter, 500,000 new Toniebox families were welcomed, and 8.3 million new Tonies were distributed, setting a solid foundation for the critical fourth quarter.

Key Strategic Initiatives Driving Growth

The company has outlined five key value levers to fuel future growth: internationalization, margin expansion, proprietary content, product mix diversification, and operating leverage. Executing on these, Tonies has broadened its U.S. presence in both retail and online spaces, creating significant partnerships, notably with Target and Amazon. The sales from these partnerships have tripled since expanding shelf space at Target, demonstrating effective retail strategy.

Educational and Cultural Partnerships Enhancing Brand Equity

Tonies is also increasing its market presence through strategic partnerships aimed at expanding the educational content portfolio and cultural engagement. Collaborations with popular figures like TV Star Checker Tobi and partnerships with museums position Tonies as a trusted educational resource. The launch of the Lalalinos franchise, aimed at slightly older children, and partnerships with established brands like Disney and National Geographic will significantly widen their audience base.

Supply Chain Resilience and Production Strategy

To ensure sustainability in growth, Tonies is strengthening its supply chain by diversifying production sources, now including suppliers in Vietnam. This strategy aims to mitigate risks associated with regional dependencies and improves the company's ability to scale operations seamlessly, especially in preparation for high-demand periods like the festive season. Their focus on inventory preparedness suggests they are ready to meet anticipated consumer demand during crucial retail moments.

Quarterly and Full Year Financial Guidance

Tonies remains confident in its performance outlook and has reaffirmed its guidance for the full year 2024. They project total group revenue of EUR 480 million, with North America expected to exceed EUR 200 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to improve to between 6% and 8%, significantly up from 4% in the previous year. The company expects to turn its free cash flow positive, exceeding EUR 10 million, a substantial improvement compared to a negative EUR 5 million last year.

Upscaling Point of Sale and Infrastructure Enhancements

In the U.S. market specifically, Tonies has increased its points of sale from 6,700 to around 8,300 by the year-end, demonstrating growth in their retail footprint. The company has developed strategic plans for high-revenue days like Black Friday and Christmas, emphasizing the importance of inventory management and logistics, ensuring all systems are poised for peak demand.

Investing in Management and Long-term Vision

Tobias Wann announced an important addition to the management team with Ginny McCormick serving as Chief Experience Officer, aiming to integrate brand development, product innovation, and content delivery under her leadership. Additionally, the company is excited about introducing its long-term strategy in June next year during their Capital Markets Day, indicating strong future growth potential.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the tonies Q3 2024 Webcast. My name is Manuel Bosing, and I represent the Investor Relations team. Today, we will walk you through our presentation. And afterwards, we invite you to submit any questions you have via the Zoom Q&A function. On the call, we have our CEO, Tobias Wann; and our CFO, Dr. Jan Middelhoff.

And now over to you, Tobias.

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Thank you, Manuel, for the intro. I want to welcome everyone joining us for our Q3 update today, where I have another exciting chapter of our growth story to share with you. I'm particularly pleased with how our global expansion is progressing as well as the continued strength of our core markets. Before Jan walks you through the numbers in detail, let me share the highlights of what we've achieved this quarter and why I'm confident about our weeks to come.

Looking at our global footprint today, the numbers tell a remarkable story about our market leadership. We've built the world's largest interactive audio platform for children, now actively enriching children's lives in more than 100 countries. Since our launch in 2016, we've placed 7.8 million Tonieboxes and over 90 million Tonies in children's hands. But what really demonstrates the strength of our platform is how deeply children engage with tonies. They spend more than 270 minutes with us each week. And in the U.S., parents and caretakers are so enthusiastic about the experience, they are continuously giving us a Net Promoter Score above 70.

Looking at our third quarter performance, I'm pleased to report continued strong momentum across all key metrics. Our revenue grew 21% to EUR 95 million, with North America showing exceptional growth of 40%, a clear validation of our international strategy. This puts our year-to-date growth at 26%, underlining the strength and scalability of our business model. What makes our platform particularly powerful is that over 70% of all Tonieboxes stay active, leading to highly predictable figurine purchases, typically 20 Tonies per box after 4.5 years. This quarter alone, we welcomed more than 500,000 new Toniebox families and distributed 8.3 million new Tonies, setting us up well for our important fourth quarter.

When I spoke to you at our annual presentation earlier this year, I introduced 5 key value levers that would drive our future growth: internationalization, margin expansion, own content, product mix and operating leverage. Today, I want to show you how we are turning this strategy into tangible results through 6 concrete initiatives that demonstrate our execution capability. We've rapidly expanded our U.S. presence, both in retail and online, consistently strengthened tonies as a brand that families trust and love. Strategically broadened our reach to older children with innovative products, launched our exciting new Lalalinos franchise, strengthened our leadership team with Ginny McCormick as Chief Experience Officer and prepared extensively for what is traditionally our strongest quarter.

So let's walk through them. Let me share what's driving our international momentum, particularly our strengthening position in the U.S. market. I want to highlight 2 strategic partnerships that showcase different aspects of our approach. Looking at Target first, we are seeing remarkable results from our wholesale strategy. We've steadily expanded our shelf presence over time, recently doubling from 4 to 8 feet in their stores. The impact on performance has been immediate. Sales have tripled since this expansion, clearly demonstrating our scaling potential in physical retail. Our direct-to-consumer business shows equally compelling progress, particularly through our partnership with Amazon. During their key shopping events, we've seen exceptional growth. Both July's Prime Days and October's Prime Big Deal Days delivered at least doubled year-over-year sales across both boxes and figurines.

To ensure we can sustain this growth trajectory, we are also strengthening our supply chain fundamentals. I'm pleased to report that new suppliers in Vietnam will begin production, reducing our regional dependencies and making our supply chain more resilient. This positions us well for continued international expansion across both wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels.

Let me share how we are strengthening tonies market position, building on our foundation as a trusted brand for families. We are executing this through 3 strategic initiatives, each targeting a different aspect of our growth potential. First, we are expanding our educational content portfolio, partnering with TV Star Checker Tobi and launching his Clever Tonies, allowing us to address the growing demand for engaging educational content, while strategically expanding into the oldest children segment.

Our second initiative involves innovative partnership with leading museums, including Museum Kunstpalast and Natural History Museum, where children receive a Toniebox as their personal guide, fundamentally changing how they experience art and culture.

The third pillar involves strategic partnerships with established brands from NBA teams to Bundesliga clubs culminating in our first nationwide U.S. campaign, Discover Imagination, where partnerships with Disney, National Geographic, Marvel, Paramount and Hasbro demonstrate the true breadth and appeal of our platform. A particularly exciting development this quarter has been our Book Tonies launch, a strategic initiative that expands our addressable market, while leveraging our platform's core strength. We are bringing carefully selected bestsellers to the tonies format, working with renowned authors like Tom Fletcher, David Walliams, Adam Kay along with classics from Enid Blyton, Dav Pilkey and Andrea Beaty. This initiative succeeds on 2 key fronts. It extends our reach to children aged 5 and older, while our simplified design approach enables faster launches and improved margins.

I'm particularly excited to announce our latest content initiatives, our second major content franchise, Lalalinos. This launch is based on clear market insights. We know that music and songs for children aged 3 and up are among our most popular formats globally. The Lalalinos combine music, rhythm and dance in a way that supports child development, following the proven blueprint of our Sleepy Friends, which have become some of our most successful figurines to date. Own content like this is central to our strategy for 2 reasons. It drives exceptional brand loyalty among our customers, while delivering significantly higher margins.

We've also taken an important step in strengthening our management team, welcoming Ginny McCormick as our Chief Experience Officer. Ginny brings over 20 years of marketing expertise and a proven track record in scaling global brands. This appointment reflects our strategic decision to bring brand, product and content under one unified leadership, which is exactly what tonies needs at this stage of growth. Ginny has already made significant impact, and you'll have the opportunity to meet her yourselves at our upcoming Capital Markets Day. Our sixth initiative, Q4 readiness, I will address after the finance update.

And with this, over to you, Jan.

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Yes. Good morning, everyone, also from my side. I'm very happy to report on our revenues for the third quarter of this year. We're only sharing revenue updates on a quarterly basis, full P&L only full year and half year.

And if you look at the tonies group development, we grow with 26% year-over-year, and that's exactly where we wanted tonies to be. Very happy with that development, particularly as we see all markets and all segments growing in line with our plan. Very pleased with the DACH development, which shows the additional potential still growing in the mid-single-digit range, the North American business growing ahead of 50%, likewise, the Rest of the World. And this is what Tobias said in the beginning, tonies is showing once again that our international expansion path works. We have increased on a year-over-year basis, the share of our international business to 53%, and that is testament to the quality and execution of the business.

Looking a bit at the product mix, it's also very important to consider that this year, and I think we have said it quite a few times, the commercial moment of Black Friday and the Cyber Week is later. It's 2 weeks later. And you can also see that slightly in our product mix effect or our product mix here on a year-over-year basis, in particular in Q3. You can see that tonies is growing on the tonies mix, so the figurine mix, exactly with the planned annual growth rate of 33%. We're a little lower on the Toniebox sales. But while that is maybe at a first side surprising, please consider this, the growth comes majority from the international expansion, where particularly the fourth quarter and the commercial moments between Black Friday and Christmas do matter. That is when Tonieboxes are being set up. That is when we grow our platform. And that's also when we will see this year's growth coming on the installed base.

So with these results, we're actually fairly happy. And looking at the overall product mix, I think there are some interesting takeaways to draw. You can see on the right-hand side that the Toniebox share was higher in 2023 on the first 9 months. But again, Black Friday was just earlier. So loadings take place a little earlier, and that's what you see here. Overall, I think that's a very good result to also see that we are doing very well with selling Tonies figurines. So have very consistent cohort behavior, and that is also a key ingredient of our profitability that we sell Tonies figurines. And you can see that on a revenue mix basis here, the share has increased in the first 9 months of this year.

And maybe looking particularly into the third quarter now, what is always important with tonies, and we keep repeating that is always consider baselining effects here. We've seen in 2023 an extreme acceleration of the business by growth 46%, '22 to '23. So the business has really picked up, and therefore, the baseline comparison here is to be considered. We're very happy, as I said, with the third quarter and believe it puts us in a good position for the fourth quarter. And you can see it the DACH market grows, the North American market grows, Rest of the World grows. And what you can see here, in particular, is that you have growth on the tonies side of the business. This also has something to do with loadings. So for example, if we enter a retail partner on a larger extent earlier or later, that can, of course, influence the overall product mix of a quarter, and that's how I suggest to read the Toniebox figures that you do see here on a year-over-year comparison. Remember, we entered some significant wholesale partners in some markets in Q3 of last year.

So overall, very happy with this. And also if I look at the total amount of Tonieboxes being sold in H1 versus in Q3, it's actually a very, very healthy relationship. And therefore, I'm very confident for what is yet to come in Q4. And of course, we also have some visibility on how the business is going.

Tobias, back to you.

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Thank you, Jan. Now let me tell you why I am and we are very confident about the quarter ahead. Q4 has always been our moment to shine. And this year, we've even better prepared than ever. In wholesale, we have taken decisive action, significantly boosting our inventory position to ensure our retail partners warehouses are fully, fully stocked. Our direct-to-consumer channel is primed for success with enhanced forecasting capabilities and a strategic buffer stock in place. We've also transformed our internal logistics and deepened our supplier partnerships to handle peak demand flawlessly.

Maybe finally, let me share a compelling proof point of our expansion strategy. Our wholesale footprint in international markets, which is the key engine of our growth continues to show remarkable momentum. In the U.S., we are building on our successful wholesale strategy, deepening relationships with existing partners, while continuously adding new ones. The U.K. tells an even more impressive story. We've added more points of sale within 1 year than we've ever achieved in any other market, picture this. And in France, we are seeing similar acceleration with our wholesale platform growing rapidly and new points of sale being added continuously.

With these achievements in mind, I am confident in reaffirming our guidance for the full year. We are clearly on track to deliver group revenue of EUR 480 million with North America exceeding EUR 200 million. What's particularly significant here is that North America is set to become our largest market in the fourth quarter. Thanks to our improving gross margins and operating leverage, we expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to reach between 6% and 8%, a substantial improvement from 4% in 2023. And I am especially pleased that our free cash flow will turn positive, exceeding EUR 10 million compared to negative EUR 5 million last year.

So to conclude, let me share what we are focused on in these very crucial coming weeks. We've planned compelling commercial moments, as I said, particularly around Black Friday and Christmas. The Book Tonies rollout is gathering momentum, and we are fully committed to making this new category a wild success. We are pushing hard to cement North America as our largest market, while preparing for the exciting launch of Lalalinos. And there's one more thing we are working on, something really exciting that I look forward to sharing with you soon.

And with that, I'll hand it back to you, Manuel, for the Q&A. I'm very much looking forward to your questions.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Thank you very much, Tobias. [Operator Instructions] And I can see that we already have received the first question. Are you prepared for another Trump legislation? What percentage of your U.S. products is sourced from China? And what happens if Trump imposes tariffs on your products?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Yes. I actually expected this question, and thank you for this important question. While we do not disclose specific sourcing percentages, let me share how we are addressing this strategically. North America, as you heard, remains one of our most important growth markets. And of course, we are closely monitoring all the developments happening there, particularly regarding potential tariffs or trade policies or whatsoever.

So what's happening right now is in any way a new consideration for us. We've proactively and also very early started to prepare for various scenarios. And we also started to take the first concrete steps to optimize and derisk our supply chain. So as I said before, we've already completed the onboarding of suppliers, for example, in Vietnam this year in 2024. And we always have the opportunity to shift volumes away from Chinese manufacturers to Southeast Asia, North Africa, Europe. And maybe as a last point here, it's also worth noting that Clever Tonies and Book Tonies are already being produced in Europe.

So if I look ahead to 2025 and what potentially can happen, I can reassure to you we have multiple sourcing strategies in place. We already adapted our supply chain structure. We are designed to mitigate everything with potentially cost impacts, of course. And that's why I am and we are very confident that we can manage various trade policy scenarios very effectively.

Great question. Thank you.

[Operator]

Second question, growth in first 9 months has been below your guided growth for 2024. Could you please let us know what makes you confident for Q4?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Yes. Thanks. I mean I just spoke about that, but I can maybe start by saying I confirm to all of you that our first 9 months performed clearly as expected. And from this position, looking at Q4, we do anticipate significant acceleration in revenue growth. And for all of you, maybe for those who joined us for the first time, it's very important, remembering that this quarter now typically generates 50% of our annual revenue. So this is absolutely normal and not new. And we have a very proven track record of delivering Q4. And as I said before, this year, I feel, we feel that we are particularly well positioned.

So what gives me confidence? We have excellent visibility into our wholesale revenue because we are very, very closely and continuously collaborating with our partners. And as you saw in the presentation, our products will also be available in substantially more stores if you compare this year to last year. And this expanded presence, combined with those even stronger and growing execution capabilities put us in a very, very good position for Q4.

And yes, we also need the U.S. momentum for this. We are seeing very strong growth across D2C and retail channel in the U.S., as I said. If I just compare the point of sales, for example, in the U.S., we had 6,700 points of sales at the end of 2023 in the U.S., and we are now at about 8,300 point of sales by the year end of 2024. So this is why I'm looking confidently in the fourth quarter. And obviously, we are seeing already the quarter being in full swing that we can get there.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

The next one is on supply chain. How do you see supply chain situation now? And can you explain -- or can you please comment on your inventory levels?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Yes, supply chain situation, I think I explained this at length already. We've been preparing. We are in a very good situation. We have worked with our partners to stock both our wholesaler warehouses as well as the D2C warehouses. We have diversified supply chain, as I explained. And so from that point of view, we are in a very, very good position. As I also said, we have clearly worked on our forecasting capabilities and have also now a really, really good view on the stock and on the inventory. So I am very confident that whatever is happening in Q4, we are very well prepared and then we have the right stock at the right places.

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Tobias, maybe I can add a few notes also on it. So I think how we're also thinking about, of course, monitoring all global events closely. Typically, container lines probably still have 1 to 2, 3 weeks due to the Suez Canal backstop, but that's all factored in. And also from a perspective of where we are right now with our inventory levels, as we build up the peak, we have passed the peak, so inventory is flushing out. And I just want to reconfirm, as Tobias said, we have everything that we need to have a very successful Q4. And now it's everything that we have prepared for, getting it on the road and showing the executional qualities that we have shown in the past years.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

The next question is also on Australia and New Zealand. You recently expanded to the Australia and New Zealand region. Which region do you see as the next to develop or explore?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

So first of all, let me actually say that we are extremely happy with our expansion into Australia and New Zealand. It is our most successful launch in any new country ever. And this makes us also very confident, and I think this is where your question is coming from, that our international expansion strategy clearly works. And I can assure you that we continuously think about more countries, more regions. But please, I hope you understand that at this very moment, until we really announce entering a new market, we don't disclose this and discuss it publicly.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Any date of the new Toniebox, will it be in Q3 2025?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

We don't really comment on exact innovation road map. And with this, obviously, we've always announced our product innovations as they happen. I talked about the Book Tonies, I talked about the Clever Tonies and the other product innovations. So please understand that we do not have anything to share beyond what we're already talking about.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Where do you see the tonies share at the end of this year? Are EUR 10 possible?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Jan, this is one for you, as the CFO.

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Great question. So I think, of course, we look at the share price. But what is even more important right now is that we focus on the business. I think we need to make sure as a company that we deliver on the targets we've set out. And there are a lot of market macroeconomic factors that you all should know. I think this company has shown a great track record in the past years and quarters, continuously delivering upon what we have set. So I'm confident that our performance is -- will be appreciated, but share price is something hard to predict, which I believe capital markets should form their opinion of, but I'm, of course, very fond of our company.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Where do you have production sites for Tonieboxes and Tonies now? How many per country?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Great question. And I think I answered this already, but I'm happy to repeat. So clearly, we are producing out of China, we are producing in Southeast Asia, we are producing in North Africa, and we are producing in Europe. And while we are not disclosing any share between the different countries, I hope I make very clear that we are not depending on any of those sourcing countries, but we are flexible in making sure that the right production country is delivering the right, let's say, destination country also with regards to the tariff question that you asked earlier.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Maybe you can walk us a little bit more through the upcoming big market days, Black Friday, Christmas, you mentioned before that there are not too many days in between, and that might lead to some friction on that important time. What can go wrong here in the most important time of the year?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Jan, do you want to maybe take that since you mentioned it already in your finance section?

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Sure. So for us, this is, I want to say, business as usual, right? So we have quite a track record of showing that we deliver when it matters. And I think it's actually quite interesting if you look at the revenue split that we showed you in this presentation that Tobias guided you through. We're very known and very experienced in managing a fourth quarter, which is always a huge growth step for the company. We don't take it lightly. We prepare. We know we have our models. We have our past tracking statistics. We have indicators from Prime Days throughout the years, et cetera, which show us that we have potential to scale as we plan it.

And secondly, also, we are, of course, ready, right? We work with our partners. Everyone in this seasonality has it this year. So it's not only tonies facing a very dense end of the year, but everyone else has it. And rest assured that we are, in this case, always working with our partners, making sure that we have the right resupply strategies in place that we anticipate the best possible extent and forecast also to the best possible extent what will be on demand, where and what.

But in the end, it's forecasting and prediction and that can be very right, and we typically get it also very right. But we're also, of course, staying attentive and don't have just a preplanned menu, but we stay agile and seize opportunities as they arise. But again, I have a lot of confidence in our teams in the markets, in the global operations, but also the whole back-office function supporting this growth that we are on a good path. And therefore, time is on, just a few days, and then it will be prime time for tonies.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

In 4.5 years, 20 Tonies are sold per box. I see on the chart that this is increasing. Do we have a figure for 6 years?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

No -- yes, but we are not sharing this. I hope you understand this, but we are obviously extremely happy with the development. This is also something, as you know, I talked about the Clever Tonies, I talked about the Book Tonies. Our clear goal is to extend the age range and have more and more content for children that are 5, 6, 7, 8-year old. And this is clearly working. These Clever Tonies, these Book Tonies are anticipated and appreciated highly in the market. Literally, I read every day fantastic reviews now about the Book Tonies, also about the Clever Tonies. So I'm very confident that this age group is continued to extend and expand. And at one point, I'm sure we'll be able to give an update on this.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

What are your long-term goals, let's say, up to 2030? How much potential do you see in your products?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

I mean this is probably -- this could keep me busy for the next 30 minutes or so talking about this. But I'd rather actually give you a classic hook here by saying we are going to present our long-term 2030 strategy during our Capital Markets Day next year, June. And this will be a perfect timing for me, for Jan, for the rest of the group to speak to you extensively about what is coming in the next years and where do we see tonies in 2030 and beyond. I can just tell you, I am extremely excited about what is ahead of us.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

A few quarters ago, everyone was talking about AI integration and you had some projects to bring AI into tonies. Where are you now? ChatGPT writes wonderful customized bedtime stories for my son every evening. I would love to have them read by tonies.

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Yes. I mean, we are all fascinated by AI. And we continue to think about how to use AI. Still at the same time, I believe with content that -- the valuable content, that recognizable content will become more important, probably even more important now that content creation becomes easier and potentially cheaper. So our platform in itself will become increasingly valuable in a situation where content creation is so abundant, so to say.

The -- our own AI developments continue. We are thinking about ways to do this. We don't really have something to update you right now. My recommendation for you specifically is maybe you combine those great AI stories from ChatGPT with your own voice, speak it on the creative Tonie via the tonies app and then you have best of both worlds, a fantastic ChatGPT, good night story and read out with your own voice to your son. I think that -- isn't that the best combination?

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Are you expecting any significant impacts on DACH region in Q4 after the launch of the new products? And what about the other regions?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

So I'm not sure what after the launch of the new product means, if this means our wonderful Lalalinos, which is a very, very important development for us. There is obviously a huge opportunity for us to repeat the success that we are currently seeing and have been seeing for a while now with Sleepy Friends. And you know that Sleepy Friends within a very short amount of time, boosted into the top 5 franchises globally. And we have very, very similar expectations of the Lalalinos. So I'm very confident that not only in DACH, but also in other regions, this will help drive growth in sales.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

Could you give a number how many boxes you sold on the Prime Big Deal Days?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Jan.

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

So I think we have not disclosed it on the Prime Big Deal Days. It's not a few hundreds. I think as referenced, what we said is on the Prime Day, which was in July, I think we've given that information in the H1, it was 50,000 boxes. So I think the absolute amount doesn't really matter because for us, it's more as to the question really on the Black Friday, and I understand the question why you ask it, but it's more that do we -- are we actually able to scale in the extent that we see also opportunity to grow our markets. I'm not saying that I want to scale the U.S. business by 2x. Otherwise, I would have probably had to guide differently. But that just shows that we understand the metrics and that on a year-on-year basis, the demand grows and we're actually able to fulfill the demand. That should give confidence that we know what to do during an important commercial moment, like the Black Friday, Cyber Monday week, Christmas business overall, respectively. And probably I want to leave it at that.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

How are sales of Spanish language Tonies developing?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Jan, I don't have an exact number, unfortunately. I don't know if you have. But I mean, let me just say, in general, as we grow in the U.S. market, we are growing with our Spanish Tonie sales. And this is really, I mean, content that is highly appreciated in the U.S. market. And so we are continuously developing new Spanish content, specifically for the U.S., but then obviously, that is in place for other regions as well.

[Manuel Bosing, executive]

And this takes us to our last question. Do you still want to be breakeven in the U.S. in 2024 in terms of margin?

[Tobias Wann, executive]

It's a wonderful question for our CFO to end on. So Jan?

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Thank you, Tobias. Well, we have guided for the company to be profitable on adjusted EBITDA on a group level, 6% to 8%. We've also guided on free cash flow at greater tens or breakeven. We have not guided on particular segment profitability. And therefore, I also don't want to comment on this. We have, however, a strategy which sees us replicating a highly profitable blueprint in the DACH segment internationally. And what we've been able to show you for the full year last year has been at 16% EBITDA margin in the DACH market. It was 18% for half year 1. So of course, that's the direction where we want to develop all of our markets. They should all be profitable. But again, we are not guiding on specific market segment. And hence, I will not comment on that question, if you understand.

[Tobias Wann, executive]

Great. Those are great questions. Thank you, Manuel. Thank you, Jan. I appreciate all your curiosity here.

Let me wrap up and highlight 5 clear messages from today. First, our international expansion continues to gain momentum. And the U.S. execution is really, really strong, plus we are enhancing our supply chain resilience through our new production partners, for example, in Vietnam. Second, we are strengthening our market leadership positioning through an expanded product lineup and fresh content that reaches a broader audience. Third, we are fully prepared and ready to deliver on the crucial fourth quarter ahead. Fourth, we are accelerating our journey to becoming a global icon brand, marked by Ginny McCormick joining our Management Board as Chief Experience Officer. And fifth, we remain firmly on track to achieve our full year 2024 guidance.

So thank you very much for joining us today for our Q3 earnings call. Very much looking forward to seeing you soon again. Thanks.

[Jan Middelhoff, executive]

Thank you.