Siemens AG

XETRA:SIE

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Performance in Smart Infrastructure and Digital Industries Drives Growth.

Siemens delivered strong financial performance in Q3 2024. Smart Infrastructure saw double-digit growth in both orders and revenue, with significant contributions from its electrification business, which grew by 21%. The order backlog reached a record €18.6 billion. Digital Industries experienced a remarkable 82% growth in software revenue, driven by large license contract wins, while its automation business faced challenges. Siemens Healthineers and Mobility segments also showed improvement. The company maintains its full-year guidance, expecting revenue growth of 4-8% and profit margins for SI and Mobility to be at the upper end of their ranges, with continued strong free cash flow.

A Strong Showing from Smart Infrastructure

Smart Infrastructure (SI) continues to be a standout performer, delivering a notable 10% revenue growth, anchored by a remarkable 21% increase in its electrification segment. SI's operating profit margin reached a new record at 17%, thanks to increased revenue and enhanced productivity. The division's order backlog also set a new record of €18.6 billion. This growth is largely driven by burgeoning demand for data centers and the expansion of power grids to support renewable energy. Looking ahead to fiscal 2024, SI anticipates its data center business to grow by over 50% in orders and around 30% in revenue, while maintaining a profit margin in the upper range of 16% to 17%.

Challenges and Opportunities in Mobility

Mobility experienced some hurdles this quarter, particularly in its rolling stock business, which faced temporary production slowdowns due to supplier quality issues. Despite these challenges, Mobility's profit margin improved to 8.7%, and the division is optimistic about a strong finish to the fiscal year, expecting a revenue growth of 8% to 11% and maintaining a profit margin between 8% and 10%. The order backlog for Mobility remains solid at €84 billion, and with production lines back on track, the division is set for a significant catch-up in cash generation by Q4.

Digital Industries' Mixed Performance

Digital Industries (DI) had a mixed quarter, with flat year-over-year revenue. However, the division's software business surged by 82%, driven by substantial wins in Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) and Electronic Design Automation (EDA). Conversely, the automation business experienced a 25% drop in revenue due to decreased capacity utilization and slower than expected industrial activity, particularly in China. DI's profit margin for the quarter was bolstered to 22.9% by extraordinary software conversions, although margins in the automation segment declined. The division is expected to face continuing challenges in the short-term but remains well-positioned long-term due to robust demand for its automation and digitalization solutions.

Financial Services and Capital Allocation

Siemens Financial Services reported solid earnings, benefitting from a strong performance in its debt business and lower credit risk provisions, underscoring a well-balanced investment portfolio. The company achieved a robust free cash flow performance of €2.5 billion over the first nine months of the fiscal year, reinforcing a positive outlook. Siemens also accelerated its share buyback program, repurchasing nearly €700 million in shares since February.

Outlook and Strategic Investments

Siemens maintains a positive overall outlook for fiscal 2024, expecting comparable revenue growth at the lower end of the 4% to 8% range and basic earnings per share (EPS) from net income between €10.40 and €11. Smart Infrastructure and Digital Industries are expected to be the main growth drivers. Siemens is committed to sustained investments in growth areas such as data centers, AI-driven electrification, and digital services. Strategic investments in automation and sustainability are set to position Siemens strongly against macroeconomic headwinds, with significant expansions planned in the U.S. and Germany to meet rising demand.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to today's conference call of Siemens AG. At the beginning, we would like to inform you about the fact that this conference is going to be recorded and broadcast via the Internet.

[Operator Instructions]

With that, over to today's host, Lynette Jackson. Head of Corporate Communications. Ms. Jackson, over to you.

[Lynette Jackson, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to today's conference call on Q3 for fiscal '24. Today, I'm welcoming you here with our CEO, Roland Busch; and CFO, Ralf Thomas. Before we get started, a couple of notes. This morning, we published our Q3 results. The presentation as well as the speeches of our Board of Management as well as any of the documents can be found on our website at siemens.com/press. There, you will also be able to find the recording of this conference call after the fact. Very quickly on today's rundown. After the speeches, both gentlemen will be available for your questions. Our conference call will end at the very latest at 9:00. I would also like to point out the safe harbor statement as per usual. This, you can, of course, find at the very beginning of the presentation.

With that being said, over to our CEO, Roland Busch.

[Roland Busch, executive]

Thank you, Lynette, and good morning. Thank you for taking time for us today. Before I'm going to give you my presentation, I would like to talk about the decisions of the Supervisory Board. We have now continuity for the further operations of our company. And this -- that we now have Cedrik Neike on our team. And then Peter Koerte and Veronika Bienert, I think, we've taken an important step because they can bring the important expertise they have for the development. And last but not least, I'm really very happy that Jim Snabe is -- or will be a member for the Supervisory Board for the next 2 years, and this has been -- this, of course, depends on the decision of the shareholders' meeting.

Now about our earnings. We were able to improve our situation, although the situation is not so easy. Now the dynamics is robust, and the demand of our customers is unbroken. We help them to become more environmentally friendly. And the book-to-bill ratio reached a positive level of 1.05 driven by Smart Infrastructure and Siemens Healthineers. Our order and backlog stands at a strong EUR 113 billion. As a result, we'll continue to grow and once more grow profitably. Smart Infrastructure, in particular, delivered an excellent quarter. Orders rose to EUR 6 billion, a double-digit increase. Digital Industries was up sequentially, driven by our exceptionally strong software business, in which we've very successfully executed on our rich sales funnel. We recorded several large license contract wins. Orders in the automation business came in slightly lower than in Q3 2023.

The economic situation in China and Europe remains difficult. Investment sentiment was weak in core markets such as machine building and automotive. Recent macro indicators point to continuing challenging conditions for industrial demand. As a result, we expect demand to develop more slowly than previously anticipated. We've executed rigorously on our order backlog. And as a result, revenue grew 5% to EUR 18.9 billion overall. The largest growth contribution came from Smart Infrastructure, which was up 10%. Siemens Healthineers grew 4%. Revenue at Digital Industries was on par with the prior year with development varying greatly from business to business. The order backlog's contribution to revenue at the automation business declined, and demand for short-cycle products remained at a low level. This decline was offset by exceptional revenue growth of 82% in software. In this area, we secured some large license contracts in our product life cycle management, or PLM business, and in electronic design and automation or EDA. However, it won't be possible to repeat these wins to the same extent.

Once again, I'd like to highlight the electrification business at Smart Infrastructure. It grew by an excellent 21%, showing great competitive strength. We are benefiting from the boom in artificial intelligence or AI and the accelerated energy transition. On the one hand, many new data centers are being built and on the other, power grids are being expanded to accommodate more renewable energies. Profit Industrial business totaled more than EUR 3 billion, equaling 110 basis points of margin expansion compared to Q3 2023. All businesses improved their profitability with the largest contributions coming from Smart Infrastructure and Siemens Healthineers.

We also achieved consistent free cash flow performance of EUR 2.5 billion in our industrial business. Therefore, we delivered robust performance in the first 9 months of fiscal 2024. We'll continue to rigorously execute on our order backlog. We'll also continue to drive sales efforts, targeted product development and rigorous cost management at our short-cycle automation businesses. As a result, we confirm our group outlook for fiscal 2024.

Now Ralf will give you further details on the individual businesses in a moment. We also delivered operationally and continue to successfully drive our long-term strategic priorities. Our Smart Infrastructure offering is hugely important for sustainable infrastructure transformation. For this reason, we'll make targeted investments to further organic growth. We're expanding our production capacities and are bringing additional experts to Siemens. I'll come to sustainability and Software as a Service in more detail in a moment.

I'm very pleased that team Siemens delivered strong financial performance across all metrics. The decline in orders was predominantly due to Mobility's prior year record-high order intake. The macroeconomic situation and exceptional software license wins were also reflected in the regional distribution of our revenue graph. The Americas were strong with 11% revenue growth, driven by the U.S.; while Europe, the Middle East and Africa, or EMEA, was down 3% on weakness in Germany; the Asia and Australia region increased 12%. Earnings per share before purchase price allocation accounting, or EPS per -- or pre, sorry, PPA came in at a healthy EUR 2.66.

I've already mentioned the long-term trends in electrification decarbonization. Demand for electrical power will triple by 2050 because many areas will be electrified, mobility, heating and many industrial sectors. This means that aging power grids will have to be urgently modernized in order to accommodate the enormous growth in the renewable energies. As a result, more will be invested in hardware. And at the same time, power grids and buildings will become more digital, therefore, more software, more digital services. Our customers want to leverage their data and optimize their systems through AI-supported analytics, and that's why they are investing. The boom in AI is acting as a supercharger, which requires more and more computing power and corresponding data centers.

Smart Infrastructure is perfectly geared for these secular trends. Around 60% of its portfolio is in power grids and around 40% in buildings. As a result, we are ideally positioned to seize these long-term growth opportunities. This strength is impressively demonstrated by our book-to-bill ratio, which is consistently well above 1. For this reason, we'll continue to make further investments to match using demand.

You're already familiar with our significant investments in the United States to increase our electrical equipment capacities. Production will start in the U.S. in the next few quarters. But we'll also be investing in Germany and again, further expanding our switchgear factory in Frankfurt.

We are focusing on the maximum automation and digitalization to ramp up production capacity for our climate-friendly, medium-voltage switchgear. We already have centers of competence for data centers in the Netherlands and the United States. Now we are opening a third center in India for the Asia Pacific region, where demand is particularly high. This move will bring our technologies and expertise closer to our customers. More than 200 experts will work in India. They'll develop scalable and modular solutions for the power distribution and automation of data centers. Our aim is to reduce the time required for installation and commissioning by up to 60%.

More than 90% of our business helps our customers become more sustainable. Our collaboration with BASF is a great example of how we are driving the circular economy. We wanted to use climate-friendly plastic for the housing of our circuit breakers. BASF makes this plastic for us. Biomethane is used instead of fossil raw materials. This new material enables us to reduce our carbon footprint by itself. This product, which is part of our EcoTech portfolio, avoids 270 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents every year. BASF, in turn, needs these circuit breakers to operate its plants, a classic win-win situation. We are now doing the same with other products. thereby helping our customers emit less CO2.

In June, we held the groundbreaking ceremony for Siemensstadt Square. We're investing EUR 750 million right in the heart of Berlin. With partners, the total investment will come to EUR 4 billion. The project will resonate much further than Berlin, a completely digitally planned, climate-neutral urban district within the perimeter of a more than 100-year-old neighborhood. We are turning an old [ historic site ] into the city of the future: digital, sustainable and competitive. To implement this project, we're using technologies from our Siemens Accelerator platforms such as digital twins and AI combined with our intelligent hardware solutions. And as a result, productivity will be boosted as the project will be completely climate-friendly. I'm particularly proud of the Platinum medal we received from EcoVadis, an organization that assesses sustainability. EcoVadis ranks us among the world's best for sustainability, in the top 1% of 73,000 companies.

I'd like to mention three compelling examples of how we've leveraged our know-how and technologies to create customer value. In April, we helped LG Energy Solution, a leader in the battery market, ramp up mass production quickly and smoothly. The launch took place at the Ultium Cells factory in Tennessee, where millions of battery cells are produced for General Motors electric cars. This is one of LG's first factories to turn entirely with our automation technology, such as programmable logic controllers, or PLCs, server motors, control panels and communications, all configured with our Totally Integrated Automation, or TIA Portal.

Let's move on to our second example. Our switchgear, which works without the extremely climate-damaging gas, SF6, is getting traction in the market. Norwegian grid operator, Norgesnett, will be the first to deploy the switchgear across its entire grid in order to achieve its sustainability goals. And it will also support customers in Switzerland with their technology.

And finally, Mobility. The largest order in the quarter came from Berlin, where the first 2 metro lines will be equipped with our communications-based train control, or CBTC system. In concrete terms, this means that we are helping Berlin's mass transit operator, BVG, implement its plan to increase capacity by 30%. And this technology is future-proof, even more people travel by subway in the German capital in the future.

And lastly, let's turn to Software as a Service and the cloud software business of Digital Industries. We are maintaining our momentum here. Growth in annual recurring revenue, or ARR, again, reached a very healthy 15% year-over-year. The cloud ARR portion now stands at EUR 1.7 billion, an amount equivalent to 39% of our total ARR. As a result, we are already close to our 40% target. All indicators are pointing in the right direction, including the fact that more than 16,500 customers have now opted for this business model. Consistent 85% share comes from small- and medium-sized enterprises.

And with that, I'll hand over to Ralf Thomas, who will provide you with more details. Thank you.

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Right. Thank you very much, Roland. Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, everyone. A very warm welcome to our press call from my side as well. I'm now pleased to share further details with you on our third quarter and our expectations for the rest of fiscal 2024.

Let's begin with Digital Industries or DI. Orders for DI at EUR 4.5 billion in total were up compared to Q3 for fiscal '23 and increased 21% year-over-year. As indicated, DI's software business delivered an exceptionally strong quarter, characterized by winning several large software license contracts. This achievement will not repeat itself in the near term on this particular level. These contract wins led to an extraordinary increase in orders, revenue and profitability. DI's automation business, on the other hand, was slightly softer than in the prior quarter and slightly below the level of the prior year quarter. However, as expected, orders remained above the trough levels of Q4 fiscal 2023.

As Roland Busch already mentioned, the market environment remains challenging with subdued production output in many of our customer industries and with a soft investment sentiment in key regions such as Europe and China. Destocking at distributors and customers, which was still slow, particularly in China, reduced demand on an ongoing basis. Our order backlog at Digital Industries further decreased to EUR 9.7 billion with the software business accounting for EUR 5.4 billion of this backlog. In DI's automation business, the backlog stood at EUR 4.3 billion, which is now nearly at pre-pandemic levels.

Let's now turn to DI's revenue, which was flat year-over-year. In this area, DI's software business showed a stellar growth of 82%, driven by a series of large contract wins for licensed software in the product life cycle management, or PLM business as well as in the electric design automation, or EDA business. On the other hand, DI's automation business was down 25%, vis-à-vis a strong quarter for this business in Q3 fiscal '23. This decline impacted discrete automation, which was down 28% and process automation, which was down 13%. Lower contributions from fast-turning book and bill orders impacted both of these businesses.

DI's profit margin rose to 22.9% which, as mentioned, was up on a sharp increase due to extraordinary conversion in its software license business. The previously announced sale of the gas chromatography business supported the margin with 140 basis points as well. The profit margin in DI's automation business saw a material decline driven by reduced capacity utilization. The broad-based contingency measures, which were ramped up further in the third quarter, did not outweigh this development. Our cloud technology investment of EUR 60 million in Q3 accounted for 120 basis points of impact on DI's margin, in line with our expectations. Digital Industries achieved a solid cash conversion rate of 0.85, yet below the prior year due to higher receivables, mainly related to the previously mentioned large software license contracts.

Now let me give you the regional perspective. As indicated before, the rebound of orders in DI's automation business has been slower than expected due to ongoing subdued industrial activity in our key regions and elevated inventory levels. The speed of destocking is sluggish, weighing on the top line. The situation continues to be most visible in China where, from today's perspective, destocking effects are likely to continue well into fiscal 2025.

On the other hand, orders in China stabilized and with customers' demand picking up slowly, they were up compared to a very weak prior year quarter. However, the pricing environment was significantly more challenging due to the competitive pressure. In other key regions such as Europe and the United States, we continue to see stock levels mostly coming back to normal by the end of fiscal '24. In line with a muted fast-turning orders in the automation business and further backlog normalization, revenue in our key region has materially moderated from the prior year level -- prior year quarter-high level, pardon. This moderation was most pronounced in our home market of Europe.

Looking at our key vertical end markets for the next quarter. Official sources continue to expect muted growth momentum for production output at many of our end customers. This situation is most pronounced in export-driven industries such as machinery and automotive. First positive signals are coming from the chemicals industry. Since chemicals are an early cycle industry, this development indicates the start of a recovery. Our DI teams continue to see this development, which is currently still rather sluggish overall as transitional. However, it will take longer than initially anticipated for stock levels to fully normalize and for us to see a broader recovery of investment sentiment among our customers at large. In addition, the systemic easing of interest rates, which is obviously later than originally expected, is weighing on the investment climate as well. Nevertheless, the fundamental trends toward automation and digitalization in the industry is fully intact, and our offerings are essential to drive sustainability and mitigate shortages in skilled labor.

For fiscal 2024, we expect Digital Industries' revenue to come in 8% to 4% below the prior year level. For the fourth quarter, we continue to see limited growth momentum in DI's automation business. Since the large-scale software license contract mentioned earlier materialized mostly in the third quarter, DI's software business will see softer performance in Q4 compared to the strong prior year quarter. Q4 fiscal '23 benefited from several large and highly attractive EDA license wins. And with regards to the full fiscal year 2024, the DI software business will deliver a very strong performance in both the EDA and the PLM business. In Q4, the lower capacity utilization in DI's automation business and a less favorable product mix will weigh on margins. The contribution from the software business will be below the prior year level, in line with a lower top line. For fiscal 2024, we expect the profit margin for DI to be at the lower end of the range of 18% to 21%.

Now let's turn to Smart Infrastructure, or SI, which again delivered outstanding performance in Q3. The SI team's excellent work paid off again. Smart Infrastructure achieved double-digit growth in orders and revenue and improved its operating profit margin year-over-year for the 15th quarter in a row. In total, SI's order were up 11% on contributions from all businesses, leading to a very healthy book-to-bill ratio of 1.11. A major growth engine in this connection was the electrification business, which was up 14%. This business, together with the electrical products business, scored major order wins for data centers particularly in the United States on dynamic capacity build-out driven by artificial intelligence or AI.

Our SI teams were successful again in a highly competitive environment, even winning new customers over from relevant competitors. We expect to grow SI's data center business more than 50% in orders and around 30% in revenue in fiscal 2024. Orders grew in the buildings business, too, where they were up a strong 12%. SI's order backlog increased further to EUR 18.6 billion, which is a new record level.

Revenue growth at Smart Infrastructure reached 10% with the largest contribution coming from the electrification business, up an outstanding 21%. The electrical products business, too, continued its growth trajectory with 7%. The buildings business was up 5% on strong service business. SI's operating profit margin reached a record level of 17%, benefiting from economies of scale from higher revenue and increased capacity utilization. The economic equation for SI remained clearly positive, supported by prior pricing actions and ongoing productivity improvement. SI's free cash flow exceeded the EUR 1 billion mark, and its cash conversion rate at 1.09 was consistently strong on a high level, and we expect this cash-generating performance to continue on.

Now looking at SI's regional development, we saw Europe, excluding Germany, standing out with major wins for data centers and for projects in the area of electrification. The United States continued its growth path with 4% order growth compared to the very high levels of the prior year. This strong development was driven by large data center wins, primarily from hyperscalers.

From a regional perspective, SI's strongest growth engine for revenue was up -- with the United States up 19% on stringent backlog execution. Revenue in Europe was driven by the electrification and buildings businesses, offsetting a softer development in the electrical products business. The service business showed a broad-based revenue growth across regions, primarily in Asia, which was up in the low teens, but also saw single -- sorry, saw high single-digit growth in Europe. Business in China continued to show softness on muted demand, especially in the market for commercial real estate. And next step in portfolio optimization is the divestment of our wiring accessories business in China to ABB. After the contract signing in May of this year, the transaction is expected to close within 12 months.

In SI's main verticals, we continue to see resilient growth in real terms based on the key drivers, as Roland Busch already discussed earlier. As mentioned, with stellar revenue growth as a data center vertical, driven by digitalization and AI, continues to quickly gain significance within Smart Infrastructure. After a strong first 9 months, we confirm our full year guidance for comparable revenue growth in a range of 8% to 10% at AI -- SI, sorry. For SI's profit margin, we expect to achieve the upper end of the guidance range of 16% to 17% in fiscal '24.

Now let's turn to Mobility. Mobility improved its bottom line in Q3 despite revenue being held back by a temporary decline in its rolling stock business. Mobility recorded orders of EUR 2.4 billion. The basis of comparison from the very high prior year quarter was, again, very high. In Q3 of fiscal '24, however, Mobility primarily posted a whole series of smaller and midsized orders with attractive gross margins. After a series of quarters with order intake driven by large contracts, Mobility's book-to-bill ratio of 0.92 is only a temporary picture, and we see a well structured and attractive sales funnel ahead. The order backlog at Mobility stands at EUR 84 billion. Mobility's revenue, however, in Q3 was up just 2%, which was below our expectations.

Mid-single-digit revenue growth in the rail infrastructure business as well as the considerable growth in the service business was largely offset by a moderate revenue decline in the rolling stock business, which was impacted by temporary production slowdowns resulting from supplier quality issues. However, there is good news in this regard. Production has since resumed on the corresponding production lines. Profitability improved in most of Mobility's businesses in Q3, led by rail infrastructure. Overall, Mobility's profit margin improved by 60 basis points to 8.7% on a more favorable business and project mix. Mobility recorded a weak free cash flow performance in Q3, which was caused by a low level of milestone payment and down payments and by inventory buildup. As indicated, we expect material catch-up in Mobility's cash generation in Q4 with foreseeable major payments from customers. For Mobility, we expect a very strong finish to fiscal 2024 with a stringent project execution and a catch-up in delivery. For this reason, although the top line was weaker than expected in Q3, we maintained our full year guidance of 8% to 11% from comparable revenue growth. In addition, we confirm our full fiscal 2024 guidance for Mobility's profit margin to be within the range of 8% to 10%.

Now let's quickly look at our activities below our industrial businesses where we simplified the reporting in line with portfolio optimization. In Q3, Innomotics was moved to discontinued operations. Effective immediately, the remaining portfolio companies' activities, which are less important in terms of their size, are part of the financing, elimination and other items position. The preparation for closing the Innomotics sale are progressing in an ideal fashion, and we now expect the transaction to close as early as the first quarter of fiscal 2025.

Siemens Financial Services achieved a solid earnings contribution with strong performance of its debt business on lower credit risk provisions, reflecting the well-balanced profile of our investment portfolio. Free cash flow performance in the first 9 months of the fiscal year was also at a solid level, although the third quarter was affected by sharply lower volume from advanced payments for -- from customers at Mobility and tax payments were EUR 0.5 billion higher year-on-year.

Ladies and gentlemen, our entire team placed a strong focus on free cash flow and is working hard to achieve, for the fifth time in a row, a double-digit cash return on revenue. In addition, we continued our path of shareholder-friendly capital allocation by accelerating our current share buyback program. Since the inception in February of this year, a volume of almost EUR 700 million has been repurchased.

Let me conclude with our group-level outlook. We confirm our guidance for fiscal 2024 with comparable revenue growth for the Siemens Group expected at the lower end of the respective range of 4% to 8% and a book-to-bill ratio above 1. We expect profitable growth of our industrial businesses overall to drive an increase in basic earnings per share from net income before purchase price allocation accounting to a range of EUR 10.40 to EUR 11 in fiscal 2024, excluding these [ immense ] energy investments. As always, this outlook excludes burdens from legal and regulatory matters as well as material impairments. Despite persisting macroeconomic headwinds, ladies and gentlemen, our priorities remain clear. We will continue to create value through profitable growth and resilient generate high free cash flow.

Thank you very much for your attention and your interest in our company. And now we're looking forward to your questions. With that, back to you, Lynette.

[Lynette Jackson, executive]

Thank you very much, Roland and Ralf. We now have until 9:00 a.m. to ask -- to answer your question. For technical reasons, we cannot mix German and English language questions. We will, therefore, start with the German language questions. If you have dialed into the English language conference, please ask your questions in English, we will answer them in English as well.

With that being said, back to the operator.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] First question, Axel Höpner, Handelsblatt.

[Axel Höpner]

Have you planned major operations? Or will you follow through on the things that you have intended to do? And could you explain the effect? Did you have any problems changing, meaning the customers are buying new items? Or do you expect major orders?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Thank you very much for your question. Let me start with the software question. These major orders have got nothing to do with the SaaS changes. Roland Busch described the situation. Here, we've made progress. And of course, it is a fact that there are always customers which, for reasons, very diverse and manyfold reasons for acquiring a license, although they had an alternative. So it just look like this that there is a direct causality, i.e., that people just buy, were licensed quickly before they change to SaaS. We've never seen this in the marketplace. And of course, you might say that dimensions, intentions play a role.

So let me come back to the question again because, of course, it is outstanding that there's such a large share of software business has been generated in this quarter, earning that much money. In the Q2 earnings call, we mentioned already that we've got a wonderful bundle and that we've received major contracts. And these customers, these major accounts are building their business over longer periods of time. There were sometimes it's a bit difficult to see and understand what the competitors are doing. And it will also -- all this will, of course, have an effect on our earnings and results. And surely, we made progress as quickly as is possible. And we also want to congratulate our customers that they opted for these products, and they've generated wonderful business in this year.

So double-digit million orders were received. And of course, this has an impact on our margins and revenue surely. And of course, the payments also are important. They are different from the day of concluding this contract. And of course, it also has an effect on the book-to-bill ratio. So in planning, this means payments going revenue, the payments are always lagging behind other aspects. But this is a fact of life.

Then you asked about the, say, slower development. And I can say that we've always used for the whole gamut of activities available to us, and this is what we announced in the last quarter. We are following our measures, our plans. And of course, the P&L, that is the effect on earnings. It doesn't come about immediately or overnight. And this is certainly not surprising that in the fourth quarter, we still are going to go all out for achieving the best results. And of course, we cannot compensate all the negative effects. But I believe that this is very important just for you to understand how we handle things.

We have done this business along the megatrends, the major trends relevant for the development of the economies, of the world economies. We are still on the ball, and we do not see a difference compared to the situation 1 to 2 years ago, i.e., the megatrends, digitalization, automation, electrification. And as a result, these will generate essential contributions to our, say, customer base. This is an uninterrupted and unbroken process. Of course, this is very important. You always want to make sure that you do not throw at the baby with the bathwater, certainly not. But the framework, the general conditions are good. We always try to do the best we can, everything that is necessary. But like we said before, we are not just thinking of the short-term profit.

[Axel Höpner]

So you will not ax any jobs?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Well, I think I answered everything.

[Operator]

Next question, [ Johannes Hier ], Börsen-Zeitung.

[Unknown Attendee]

I've got two questions about the automation business. You mentioned that revenue has gone down again. And is that, say, following the market or did Siemens lose any market shares? Maybe [ contrary say so ] in order to be not among the top when it comes to competitive struggles. And in May, it was said that in the automation business, the inventories of the distributors has got a volume of about 14 weeks. What is the situation right now?

[Roland Busch, executive]

Thank you very much, Mr. [ Hier ] for the two questions. Surely, they were high, acknowledging the two. Let me start with the inventories. In the half year press conference, I said that this is not only about the inventories of the distributors, but that this is kind of mobile concept. We have to look at our own inventories. We have to look at the inventories of the distributors, but we also have to look at the inventories of our end customers. So you've got 3 levels. And these inventories have built up COVID other restrictions, delayed delivery times. All this is normalizing, so to speak. And I can say that the statemen, all the inventories coming from the distributors, particularly in China at half year, 14 weeks was the time. Yesterday morning, I talked to our commercial manager in China, asked her about the current situation. 12.5 weeks is the current status. But I would like to warn you to extrapolate these figures. These developments for a large part, are influenced by, say, real political influences, the economic general conditions. You know that the Chinese government launched certain stimulus programs, certain support then the real estate sector is to be supported over there.

So there are erratic movements on the market. So I can say that the change of, say, 1 week, that's very normal. And in addition, we see that the economy is improving so that there are certain business, which are done quickly. There's an order coming in today and tomorrow. The sales is done, meaning the revenues generated. And this, of course, sometimes that this goes beyond the weeks of the inventories. And selling from these distributors' inventories, there is a net realization of the situation. So we can be very relaxed. We are on the same level as in the past. But nevertheless, I'd like to say that this slightly positive development of 14 to 2.5 -- 12.5 weeks also has an effect on the other two levels. This means for our own order backlog in China, I can say we've also gone down to some extent, CNY 800 million, less compared to the end of the second quarter and also the transparent end customer inventories are also going down, but at a very slow pace. And therefore, I can say that we are very much alert and to monitor everything and how we judge and categorize the overall situation.

Now if you want to evaluate everything across the three levels, I can say that we still got inventory above that, what is normal considered in China, CNY 14 billion, EUR 500 million approximately. So this is the reason why we said that only in the beginning of the next calendar year, we will be able to have a complete normalization of the situation. In calculating terms, of course, it's going to be 1 week earlier or 1 week later. We've got standard deviations in such calculations. So this is something which we have to take into account also, say, monthly slices, so to speak, as they say. So I can say, in principle, all these are important. And here we see a slight, say, easing of the situation, looking at one of the other parameters. But it's much too early to say anything that's very, say, concrete or specific.

And the other question related to market shares or the price competition -- or sorry, I forgot that. And that was part of the question from my point of view. I can say the situation in China is like this. We have got a very intense price competition over there. We touched on that earlier. And we've heard several studies, and I'm sure you're familiar with these studies, Sachs and Goldman (sic) [ Goldman Sachs ], they talked about the competitive situation in China. They gave intensive detailed reports on that, I'm not going to elaborate on them right now because it got beyond. It's true what we said for the second quarter. We do not perceive any significant market share losses. But nevertheless, we see price. We are the price leader in a very cost-intensive competitive environment.

The profit tool -- pool, sorry, to give it at a very high level is difficult. And now 45% and 50%, that's the market share, depending on the source you look at. So we're extremely interested and looking at the smaller PLCs so I can say competition is even fiercer. This is the value market segment. One of the other customer thinking of these or those quality parameters might opt for, say, a lower-cost alternative. But nevertheless, there aren't any significant changes over there. And all that, and I want to come back to the first part of my answer.

Nevertheless, I can say that it is very, very difficult to see the final market shares and the respective distributions and the developments of these shares also improving the way it was challenged and very difficult to see. We are conducting a very careful analysis, detailed analysis, and this will kind of show how we are going to shuffle the cards and, if possible, take everything in our favor. So this is our estimate, our opinion. And I'm sure you will hear more about it from us later. Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is from Christina Amman, Thomson Reuters.

[Christina Amann]

I have a question. And my question is on investment as well as on the outlook. So number one, of course, the economic outlook. When do you expect the turnaround there? You just said in China, it should be at the beginning of the coming year should become a bit better. But when can we expect real growth? And the second thing is what does it mean for your investment, plant expansions in China, for example, where you -- were also suppose to build more? Are you going to stop that? What's the change here?

[Roland Busch, executive]

All right, thank you very much for the question. First off, on your last question first, as Ralf has already mentioned, we do not carry out any hectic measures. We are, of course, very measured, and we will definitely stick with our plan. So in the mid- to long term, we are expecting, of course, a market recovery and the trend towards automation and digitalization remains unchanged. The need, even in this very difficult employment market with increasing costs to automate further and digitize further, is intact and also, of course, happen to the other advantages like lower energy consumption, profitability, et cetera, we can still see that. So we're not worried.

When will something change specifically? Well, first off, of course, we're saying not much until the end of the year. That's the current situation. We especially speak of the discrete industry. So there are some signs in electronics, for example, a lead indicator, of course, chemistry that has seems in green shoots. And the industry is a bit different. The oil and gas, of course, is quite stronger. We're not quite as strong as chemistry, pharmacy, food and beverage. We see maybe the first couple of green shoots there. But all in all, we also believe that the new calendar year is not going to be incredibly strong at the start.

So it's really going to be more of a long-term step-by-step increase that at least our current take. And this, by the way, affects or applies both to China as well as the European market. And we just have to see what's going to happen. In the United States, of course, it's currently election season, but I think the same thing applies there, the Inflation Reduction Act measures. Yes, I have to say the money doesn't really hit the market as quickly as what should be expected in the beginning. So I think the essence of it all is that this calendar year remains weak. Maybe also Q1 in the next calendar year, but then we'll see a livening up.

Maybe one other thing, it's tricky because, of course, also customers are buying less electric for a variety of reasons. So I think, again, we just have to look at the overall market development in this. I'm coming over to my last point. All depends on how much the customers are willing to spend money on. In China, we don't see that. In China, we see a lot of uncertainty regarding the development regarding the economic development. The measures of the government don't really apply there. It's not really a big momentum there. And the private consumption and with that, of course, also the trust in the future is very much impaired.

Last point, the interest rates in terms of how much movement is applied to the interest rate, I think the question is always what is a tolerable inflation? When we sit at 2.5% here at a time when we actually have a built-in inflation increase through the energy turnaround, labor costs, et cetera, et cetera. All of this, of course, costs money. Then we just have to think about that, right? So maybe a step in the right direction would be something to be desired. So I think all in all, it makes it a bit difficult. And that's why, of course, our outlook is still weak Q4, Q1 also. Q2, we have to see, but then it should ramp up again.

And maybe just one more comment, Ms. Amann, you asked about the big investments. And as you can imagine, we have large investments for big plants, and we don't really plan that on a quarterly or an annual perspective necessarily. But that's why my comment I specifically pointed out that the long-term structural demand for the product, which we offer, is continuing to be strong. There's not a question. And I also don't know anyone who would have a different opinion on this, the long-term demand for pro sustainability solutions and products that are over 90% of our portfolio that, that continues to be strong is, of course, very clear. Throughout the next few years, there's, of course, going to be ups and downs. That is correct.

It would, of course, be also nice that we had large investments that we could basically simply slice up to different tranches, that they always fit neatly into quarters. But that's, of course, one of the big advantages that we have as a multinational corporation, which basically operates in all countries in this world. For example, in the United States, we also have a very big footprint. So we can afford all this. We can be very diligent with all of this. Our investment horizon is not the next quarter. It is not the next year. We're speaking over the next 3 to 5 years. And we don't see any indication to question the structurally intact demand that we see in the market.

[Operator]

The next question is from [ Christoph Rima, DBA ].

[Unknown Attendee]

Two questions, maybe just to double-check. You said weak Q4, weak Q1, and then you see an upward trend. Is that related to DI or overall or automation? I wasn't quite sure on that. And on the measures that you mentioned earlier. Mr. Thomas, you said the whole program with the whole program, of course, we're also thinking of short-term labor, at least in Germany. Is there something that you are envisioning? Or have you already implemented something in this way?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Well, the first question was about automation. That was really the focus there. This was the focus on discrete automation. And regarding the measures, as you mentioned, of course, we are using any flexibility potential that we have available for us. We've done that in the past. Everybody does this. We've also said that, of course, we will tap into all measures that are available, Roland Busch has mentioned it. We simply have to also look at the current development. And we, of course, want to make sure that we make it through these challenges as well as possible. And we want to make sure also, and this is a deciding point, that with the structural demand, we don't want to threaten anything that we've built up. Of course, you've also followed it. Historically speaking, the big ups and downs in the last 20 years always ended up in a swift recovery. And the ups and downs in the markets, I believe you really actually have the biggest opportunities to gain market share. Our teams are very well trained in that. We will use these opportunities again, and that's all I have to say.

[Unknown Attendee]

Now you didn't answer necessarily when it comes to the short-term labor.

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Well, I said that we're going to be using all options of flexibilization. If a certain situation demands it, so why shouldn't we use that option if it were adequate?

[Unknown Attendee]

I'm so sorry if I'm insistent, but are you doing it at the moment?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

We are using the measures available. In some sites, we are implementing additional flexibilities with all the options that we have. But that is, of course, not the be-all and end-all to tackle a challenge of this magnitude, right? That was my point.

[Operator]

The next question [indiscernible], Bloomberg News.

[Unknown Attendee]

A few questions outside of the flexibilization topic. I would like to know how the Accelerator program works with the best ecosystem. The customers you have there are mainly focused on Smart Infrastructure. So I would like to hear a bit more about that in terms of how many customers you have there and what your status is regarding the Accelerator options. And then the second question is on additional purchases. Mr. Busch, you alluded to it in the past, that Siemens technically had enough money for additional larger acquisitions. So we haven't seen that materialize so far. Are you still open to larger acquisitions? And if yes, which area would that be in? And what is a large acquisition to you?

[Roland Busch, executive]

Well, on the first question, we see a really good development. And we think this is going to just continue with Mr. Koerte and the Board, but I'm going to give you some numbers. Year-to-date, so the ongoing year, when it comes to revenue in the digital space for the Siemens Accelerator has gone up by 29%. The sales -- or the sellers, of course, the marketplace and also the offerings of sellers that we have placed on the market have increased by 27%, offers by 13%. All in all, the offers on the marketplace are now at 800, they increased by 13%. So we see growth numbers that are all significantly above what we have in other areas. So we are definitely taking up momentum, and we're starting with very attractive offers, not just when it comes to digitization, but also when it comes to sustainability.

We are continuing to work on our customer journey. So basically, how customers can kind of orient themselves, can learn from others. And by the way, we also have a developer portal that we launched. And that's where app developers that Siemens can use these different portals. So I think it's something that we're really happy with. By the way, we also have a technical interest in this because, of course, such a marketplace also needs a technological platform, which we've now updated, which we basically replaced from the old ones so you also get a product or a technology stack, where it's about hardware and software combinations, so you can just buy it easier. So all of this is helping and happening, contributing to our momentum. And I think the Siemens Accelerator is really part of the strategy, and we're going to put the pedal to the metal.

The next point is the mix, especially if you look at China, there is a huge momentum there, a lot on the road there. And I think that also brings us to your question. Yes, we also see smaller customers that are accepting these offers. With big customers, we are two feet down anyways, right on the ground and the offerings for mid- to small companies, that's again something very, very big. M&A, yes, we are still working on it. Software is still there, anything pertaining to hardware, anything relating to hardware, all of this is, of course, going to be added into our portfolio.

So now of course, we have to talk about, well, you understands under acquisition. So this bolt-on strategy where you basically add our assets, right, in these core areas, that's, of course, a strategy that was very successful for us. And I would like to define it in the following manner. If you say large acquisitions, very large acquisitions, that would be in the significant double-digit area. That's, of course, something that we really have to think about. I more see in the single-digit billion range, could be 5, could be maybe double digit, but not super high. I think that would be larger acquisitions already.

So for example, Mentor Graphics, that's already a larger acquisition in my book. And that was definitely also very successful. One of the most successful acquisitions, and I think that's something that we can definitely picture again. But we're also working -- and I think this is very typical for software. We're working with smaller acquisitions that we are adding up that we can use to generate volume. They're very successful because they are using the big sales lever. So they're basically underpinning our operations with new technology, and then we're really going into sales. That's very successful. And of course, we continue doing that.

[Operator]

Next question, Ludwig Burger, Reuters.

[Ludwig Burger]

If you could analyze the surprise on the market, it seems to go off better than expected. I think software, you've mentioned, it is doing well. But outside of this, very good software business. Are there any other aspects that play a crucial role in this? And yes, you also sort of played off the early cyclical industry like the chemicals industry, that you shouldn't overemphasize that. But are there any other industries that you consider early in these cycles where you see similar suits? And third off, why is automation doing so poorly?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

Let me start with your first question. I hope it wasn't a surprise to you because we were very loud. And also in the second quarter, we said that the annual -- the press conference there that we expect exactly what we said with a very rich funnel, right? So all of these orders coming up, we pointed it out there, and we would like to emphasize again how sometimes, orders line up over years and years. And then you simply have to leave it to the customer as to when and how they can and want to sign it because otherwise, you put yourself into a position that you might regret. So the customer is king and queen there. And of course, we couldn't predict it down to the week and month, whether all of these orders will really -- or would will materialize, most of them have. And that's exactly what happened, right? We have a very successful team that was very happy about the fact that when it comes to customers that were clearly in the hands of competitors, we were able to win them over. That's why it was not a surprise to us. I think the scale and scope might be a surprise to you, but we very clearly announced that this is what could happen. And then also in my presentation earlier, I wanted to point out that this is something that would not repeat in every single quarter, and what you have described as a possible weakness in Q4 is simply also due to the fact that this fantastic software quarter Q3 is not going to repeat in the next quarter.

The second I mentioned I would like to add to this is why this quarter seems to have been quite a surprise to some after all. Well, SI is in an amazing run, 15 quarters in a row, has improved the margin to the previous year's quarters. You just have to really let that sink in. SI, back at the Capital Market Day in 2021, said what they wanted to do and did exactly what they said they would. They fully delivered and over-delivered. Now to be very fair, of course, the market is also supporting us here with the electrification need, with the great development in data centers, which I've also pointed out multiple times in my speech. So again, this is not a big surprise as far as we're concerned, even though, of course, the dimension of the progress and the dimension of the individual quarters was something that not everybody expected. Of course, we're very happy about this, but I just wanted to kind of rejig the word surprise. The fact that this was going to happen was something that hopefully we announced very transparently and very well. Maybe the dimension was positive. And that's, of course, nice as well, isn't it?

And then moving on to your question regarding the early cycle industry. That's always a thing, right? On one of the slides that we show on a regular basis, you always have to point how important the respective industries are in our portfolio. And mechanical engineering and the automotive industry, they simply continue to be the dominating factor in our sales market. So it is very good. It is very important for us to see growth shoots, even if they're very soft from the chemicals industry. Why? Well, it's because historically speaking, and you have empirical objective data and then those are usually the early indicators. And that's why, of course, I also wanted to point it out in that way. But again, you shouldn't overestimate these individual factors. Before we really see an overall economic recovery that will really positively impact our business, we need a lot of those positive shoots. And we are, of course, focusing on this. So we'll see where we could see a sustainable trend emerging.

And the last one, Mr. Busch also pointed it out, the interest rate politics of the large interest -- of the large central banks is also pointing this out, how important individual points are, for example, the Japanese yen, but also other interest rates in, for example, Europe and the United States, all of this can be very important. So I think in customer industries, we shouldn't overestimate these factors. I think a really good investment momentum has never come around if the interest expectation weren't also promising for other factors. I think we also already focused on other topics. And as a market leader, especially with a strong focus on discrete automation, just to give you a feeling, 3/4 of our businesses in automation are in discrete automation, 1/4 is in process automation.

All in all, in our business, 22%, 23% of our activities are in China. And therefore, of course, also we have two important pillars that are once again revived -- will be once again revived, that do not have the perfect momentum at the moment. And that's why, of course, we're comparing it to the competition. And so far in the past, we didn't really have any competition in that way in China, but that's why we also see us stagnating situation. We see a high degree of process automation and at the moment, it's looking better. That's not a huge surprise for us. We also don't see that as a weakness per se. I've mentioned it before, our capital allocation as to where Siemens invest in long-term opportunities, that is coming from the automation, digitization, electrification, while also contributing to the sustainable development of the company and that of the planet, not just the company, but also the planet. And that's why I'm very optimistic that our portfolio structure is not just future-proof but also successful.

Is there another question?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] One question from Mr. [ Friehoff ], Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

[Unknown Attendee]

How high is the annual recurring revenue as a share of the total revenue?

[Ralf Thomas, executive]

That is a very difficult question because there's no always recurring revenue. You know that. We have a position that we call resilience. So that is already very high probability to materialize. And of course, it's our service business, 20% is service based. We are investing into the SaaS migration. So the Software as a Service with the goal to have a higher recurring business share in the software business, so moving away from individual contributions to a continuous revenue development. We've reported on this, and we are seeing huge [ leap share ] and cloud share, of course, over 39%. So this is great. So 1 year earlier than expected. As you can see, we are making huge progress there. But a guarantee that the revenue next year is going to be at least XYZ percent recurring. We don't know, but that's why, of course, you also need to have the right agility in your investment.

And we do that in a variety of different ways. And of course, we also have businesses like Mobility that support us going into the next year. But of course, that also depends on the backlog. It is not a given that this will remain this way. But as long as the book-to-bill ratio, maybe that's a KPI that you can use going forward. As long as the book-to-bill ratio will be above 1, which means that we finished or fully booked revenues are materializing, I think our industry feels like this is definitely one of the big indicators as to where the business is moving continuously ahead. So as long as the backlog grows and the quality of the backlog is equal, I think we all feel very comfortable.

[Lynette Jackson, executive]

Unfortunately, we now have to close the conference call. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your participation and your interest in our company. We will start our analyst call at 9:30 a.m. with Roland Busch and Ralf Thomas. Of course, you can also follow this conference call live online at siemens.com/analystcall. You will once again hear from us at the very latest on November 14 for Q4. Thank you very much.

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]