Saf-Holland Se

XETRA:SFQ

Earnings Call Analysis

SAF-Holland Achieves Strong Q3 Growth

SAF-Holland reported a robust Q3 with the best quarter in its history, driven by a 37.4% year-over-year sales increase, bolstered by strong performance in the Americas and APAC regions and a solid aftermarket growth. Organic growth for the quarter reached 13.2%. Notably, the aftermarket sector grew by 68%, nearing EUR 190 million. The integration with Haldex is progressing smoothly, supporting the achievement of targeted synergies. Q3's adjusted EBIT margin stood strong at 10.6%, with the last 12-month average at 9.3%, aligning with the long-term goal of 9% to 9.5%. Additionally, effective net working capital management facilitated an excellent cash generation leading to a lowered leverage to 2.1x. Looking forward, SAF-Holland has updated its fiscal 2023 outlook to target sales around EUR 2.1 billion and an adjusted EBIT margin of approximately 9.5%.

SAF-Holland Performs Strongly in Q3 with Record Quarter Amid Market Normalization

SAF-Holland kicked off the third quarter of 2023 with an impressive 37.4% sales growth, largely driven by success in the Americas and APAC regions. The company capitalized on a robust aftermarket, revealing a 68% increase in growth to nearly EUR 190 million for the quarter. Integration efforts with Haldex contributed favorably toward cross-selling and the realization of targeted synergies. Notably, the aftermarket surge and efficient net working capital management led to a stellar cash generation, moving the company closer to its fiscal year 2024 leverage goal prematurely by September 2023.

Robust Margin Performance and Upward Outlook Revision

In the face of fluctuating demands, particularly in the EMEA region, SAF-Holland demonstrated resilience by posting a sturdy adjusted EBIT margin of 10.6% in Q3. The company projects an annual sales target of EUR 2.1 billion and aspires to sustain an adjusted EBIT margin around 9.5%, an uptick from the previous year's 8%. This forecast hinges on contributions from Haldex and persists despite some market dips, such as a slight decrease anticipated in EMEA trailer markets.

Finely-tuned Operations Translate to Lower Expenses and Higher Earnings Per Share

The third quarter saw a positive turnaround with the reduction in post-merger integration costs and lower restructuring expenses, narrowing down to EUR 6 million, a considerably smaller gap compared to past periods. With operating expenses in check and finance costs expected around EUR 9 million, SAF-Holland delivered a substantial uplift in earnings per share to EUR 0.78 adjusted. Notably, the tax burden for Q3 was higher at close to 40%, attributed to non-capitalized deferred tax assets and subsidiary tax rate variations.

Consistent Growth and Investment in Future Capabilities

Amidst ongoing global uncertainties, SAF-Holland has seamlessly navigated and maintained an equity ratio increase of 6.2% over the past year. With plans for expansion in high-potential regions like Mexico, India, and Brazil and implementing a company-wide SAP S/4HANA rollout, SAF-Holland is positioning itself for continued success. The capital expenditure (CapEx) ratio remains at a targeted 3%, asserting the company’s commitment to sustainable growth without compromising financial stability.

A Strong Foundation for Future Performance

SAF-Holland's management remains confident in reaching an adjusted EBIT margin target of about 9.5% this year, thanks to a strong order intake, a robust aftermarket business, cost mitigation strategies, and additional synergies from Haldex projected to manifest throughout next year. Moreover, a steadfast focus on lowering costs by shifting production to regions with favorable wage conditions, like Mexico, showcases the company's strategic approach to improving margins and ensuring long-term profitability.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the SAF-Holland SE Q3 2023 Results Call. Today, presenters are CEO, Alexander Geis; and CFO, Frank Lorenz-Dietz. The presentation slides are available on the SAF-Holland Investor Relations website. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference call will be recorded and published on the Investor Relations website of SAF-Holland SE. Everything spoken through the unmuted microphone will be perceived during the online meeting and published on the website of SAF-Holland. If a participant does not wish to be recorded, they should refrain from participating in the Q&A session and keep their microphone muted.

The Q&A session is exclusively for institutional investors and analysts. All other participants of the conference call are kindly asked to contact the Investor Relations team directly if they have any questions.

Mr. Geis, the floor is yours.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Alex Geis speaking, and welcome to our conference call, our Q3 and 9 months '23 results. And let me start with some key messages on Page 2, please. SAF-Holland has performed strongly in Q3 as well in the first 9 months of this year despite demand normalization in EMEA. The integration with Haldex is going very well. We are on track to deliver the targeted synergies as well as cross-selling targets for the year.

The increased profitability linked with strict net working capital management led to an outstanding cash generation and leveraging close to our fiscal year '24 target already in this September or by September '23. And we have seen another quarter with a strong ROCE in the double digits and clearly above WACC, means we created further shareholder value in the past quarter. And I'm very happy to report that this is the best quarter we ever had in the company's history.

Moving on to Q3 '23 highlights on Page 4, please. So we have seen a strong year-over-year sales increase of 37.4% driven by Americas and APAC, mainly by those 2 areas, a robust aftermarket as well as the consolidation of Haldex. Our organic growth in the quarter was strong with 13.2%, so a good increase.

By region, we have seen very strong high double-digit organic growth in APAC, double-digit organic growth in Americas and a mild organic sales decrease in EMEA, basically on the same level, due to the demand normalizing, and we are still in a good level here in EMEA.

Aftermarket performed strongly, growing by 68% and close to now EUR 190 million in only the third quarter. This is, of course, also linked to Haldex but also to prior strong OEM business growth, increasing the addressable aftermarket.

As you know, we work on population OE, so we are able to sell in the aftermarket.

Another highlight is certainly the adjusted EBIT margin we have achieved in Q3. 10.6% in the quarter is strong and based on improvements in the Americas and APAC, where margins in EMEA increased slightly or were stable. The average LTM margin, so the average margin over the last 4 quarters, just for your interest, is at 9.3% and in line with our long-term target of 9% to 9.5%.

And Frank will tell you more about the margin drivers, especially in Q3 a little bit later. I am also very pleased to report that SAF-Holland having achieved strong cash generation with a free cash flow of EUR 71 million, bringing leverage down to 2.1x for September. Last but certainly not least, we updated our fiscal '23 outlook, as you know, now targeting sales of around EUR 2.1 billion, an adjusted EBIT margin of around 9.5%.

So looking at Q3 '23 results in more detail. You can see on Page 5, starting on the upper left side, starting with EMEA, EMEA grew 15.2%; Americas, slightly above 50%; and APAC, very strongly with over 90% growth in Q3 '23. Later on, I will jump into different regions as you note.

In sum, we have seen sales slightly above EUR 550 million, a strong adjusted EBIT margin of 10.6% and adjusted EPS of EUR 0.78. Despite strong sales growth, net working capital ratio was further reduced to 14.5%, good result. And as a -- strict management is unchanged and also a top priority still in our company. Operating free cash flow, as said before, came in EUR 71 million and was good and very strong. In a nutshell, we have seen significant improvement on our metrics, and I'd have to say I'm very happy to be able to report this.

So let me speak about group sales development on Page 6. So we saw robust demand for customers for trailers and trucks and the aftermarket. Both higher volumes and prior price increases supported sales growth. And our 9-month sales increased 35% to around EUR 1.6 billion now. Organic growth was near 12%.

Q3, '23 sales grew 37.4% and 13.2% organically. Haldex contributed EUR 120.6 million to Q3 group sales. And also let me here just tell you one thing. As we continue with the integration and achieve further cross-selling, we already or partly invoice customers already via the SAF-Holland channels and not Haldex entities in some cases. Therefore, the Haldex sales on a stand-alone basis shown here are appearing lower than they actually are. So we shifted a little bit the sales from the old Haldex waste to the SAF-Holland channels.

Moving on to the sales split by region and customer category on Page 7. So this is a study on the upper left side. This is a comparison between Q3 '22 and then Q3, '23. Due to the Haldex strong position or Haldex' strong position in the Americas, they do about 50% of sales in the region, and with strong organic growth, Q3 '23 share of sales increased to now 44% for Americas. This is the first time that Americas is a little bit bigger in sales than EMEA, which is still, and you can see that, 42% of group sales.

APAC having increased their share of group sales from 10% to now 14% is based on a strong organic growth in the region. And also we'll come to this later on. So basically, the perfect split for us in the future would be somewhere around 40, 40-20, so we are coming close.

Now OEM sales of EUR 365 million are mildly down 3.8% against prior quarter but strongly up against prior year. Truck OE share, as you can see, is basically flat at 13%, while trailer OE business is 53%. And with the Haldex consolidation and a robust aftermarket demand, you can see that the aftermarket share is now around 34% of group sales or EUR 188 million, posting another increase of 6.5% against Q2 '23 and significantly up versus prior year when we saw aftermarket sales of around EUR 100 million and EUR 110 million per quarter. But please keep in mind, we added the Haldex. Haldex did 50% from the aftermarket, so this is basically a perfect share now for Q3.

In the aggregated period Q1 to Q3 '23, so whole year '23, year-to-date, aftermarket share is close to 31% and in line with our strategic target of most sales coming in from our resilient aftermarket business. So normally, aftermarket sales are close to EUR 490 million for the first 3 quarters, and this is really good for our resilient earnings profile.

So I'm on Page 8 now. And you can see the overall adjusted EBIT. In the first 9 months of '23, adjusted EBIT improved by 65.6% to now EUR 152.8 million, equal to a significant margin improvement from 7.8% to now 9.6%. Q3 adjusted EBIT was EUR 58.6 million, up by close to 60%, representing a very strong margin of 10.6% as we learned before. The improvement in adjusted EBIT in the quarter resulted mainly from the OE volumes in Americas, higher volumes in APAC as well, as I said before, an increased aftermarket share.

Process optimization, cost efficiencies, economies of scale also in SG&A were also supportive. Then speaking of the synergies from the Haldex acquisition, they were also beneficial to our adjusted EBIT increase. So the synergies came in quite good. A year-over-year FX tailwind had a positive impact on adjusted EBIT as well, but Frank will speak about that later in detail. And the average LTM margin of 9.3% is in line with our fiscal year '23 adjusted EBIT margin target of 9% to 9.5%.

So coming now to the regions, starting with EMEA on Page 9, please. While we have seen double-digit year-over-year increases both in the first 9 months and Q3 '23 due to the Haldex acquisition, organically, our EMEA sales were slightly down by 0.7%. So we are seeing the expected normalization in trailer markets. We forecasted EMEA trailer markets to be slightly down since the start of the year. Therefore, our performance is a good achievement. As according to our own estimates, organic performance is above market development. Due to Haldex being consolidated and prior strong OEM business growth, the EMEA region recorded solid aftermarket sales growth also in Q3 '23. Overall, 9-month sales were EUR 711 million and EUR 231 million per the last quarter of Q3.

Coming to EMEA operating performance on Page 10. And I can say we are on a good way to come back to normal levels. So we have seen double-digit increases in adjusted EBIT and margin expansion in the first 9 months to 7.8% and a stable margin in Q3 of 8%. So this is going into the right direction.

Higher aftermarket share, internal efficiency improvements as well as I said before, the synergies from Haldex had a positive impact on our EBIT margins. Q3 '23 versus Q2 '23 adjusted EBIT also improved slightly due to an improvement in Haldex stand-alone profitability, and there are various measures underway to achieve further improvements in coming periods. So this is a good potential for us since Haldex EMEA is very much dilutive to the overall EMEA profitability, but we are going step by step and have the first good achievements.

Coming to Americas, which I'm very happy to report, ladies and gentlemen, because the overall demand for trailer and truck components remain robust in the region due to solid OEM backlogs. And due to our strong position, we also benefited from the trend towards disc brake axle systems, and we are now also ramping up our capacity for disk brakes in our plant in Mexico to be ready for further growth.

So in the first 9 months of this year, sales increased 54% to now EUR 677 million as Haldex generates approx. 50% of sales in the Americas region. So 50% of the Haldex sales is coming from Americas. Adjusted for FX and M&A effects, Americas grew a solid 15% in the first 9 months, and Q3 '23 sales were up 51% to now EUR 244 million. Adjusted for FX and M&A effects, we saw still a strong increase of 13.4%.

And speaking of the operating performance of Americas on the next page, you can see that our Americas region saw a very strong double-digit adjusted EBIT improvement in both periods of around plus 80%, equal to adjusted EBIT margins of 10.9% for September '23 and even 12.3% per Q3 '23. Strong increase in profitability was primarily a result of the operating leverage and, of course, the strong sales growth.

We successfully implemented efficiency enhancements and savings in the overhead area, which are now showing the benefits. The increase in adjusted EBIT margin in Q3 '23 to 12.3% was also supported by a reduction in the aftermarket backlog. So we had huge orders in aftermarket we couldn't deliver. But we've got components, semiconductors in that case, and we were able to deliver a big chunk of that aftermarket backlog to our customers, which came in with a very healthy margin.

The average LTM adjusted EBIT margin is 10.5% and including Q3 '23, the sixth consecutive quarter around the double-digit margin territory. Who thought that some 3, 4 years ago, where we really messed it up, but now we're in a good way, as I said, sixth consecutive quarter with around 10%. This is a great result of the team running the Americas.

Now also coming to a region, which we have big troubles the years before. APAC, on the next page, please. You can see that there was a substantial growth in the APAC region, and this was driven by the ongoing strong development in India due to government infrastructure measures, the expansion of its transport sector and overall, the increasing population and positive economic development, which were also supporting the transportation demand.

Since we reached the trailer axle market in India with more than 55% to 60% market share, of course, we are in front row and we are getting good orders in, and the orders keep coming in. Customer orders also remained solid in the specialty market of Southeast Asia. This is mainly mining but also Australia. In sum, APAC sales grew around 78% until September '23 to now EUR 200 million and an even stronger with around 92% in Q3 alone with close to EUR 78 million. 9 months organic growth was around 70% and 83% in Q3, so very strong achievement overall.

And speaking about a strong achievement, the next page, when we come to the EBIT performance. So also here, overall, the economics of scale from the higher business volume in India and a favorable product mix in the rest of APAC were supportive in all quarters of '23, and I spoke about that before, the highly profitable business in the mining sector in Southeast Asia also helped to the adjusted EBIT increase.

Further improvement in our subsidiary, so in China, helped a lot. So we are very close to breakeven there, helped to increase further our adjusted EBIT improvement. And of course, the target is that we, for next year, will also earn money in China but in a good way. Adjusted EBIT more than doubled nominally in the first 9 months to EUR 23.6 million, and we recorded EUR 10.2 million adjusted EBIT in Q3 of this year, equal to a significant improvement of margins of 11.8% in the first 9 months and 13.1% in Q3 '23.

In sum, Q3 2023 was the seventh consecutive quarter with an adjusted EBIT margin around a double-digit territory. So this was the region 2 or 3 years ago, when we still were negative, so a good achievement. I think we did the right thing.

All right. Now Frank will tell you about the financials in more detail, and I'll come back later for the outlook.

[Frank Lorenz-Dietz, executive]

Okay. Thank you, Alex, and good evening to everybody. From my side, Frank Lorenz-Dietz speaking. I will call out some highlights on EBIT to adjusted EBIT reconciliation for the group on Page 16. The delta between adjusted EBIT and the EBIT in Q3 2023 to EUR 6 million and were significantly smaller compared to prior periods. Due to lower expenses from restructuring and transaction costs as the initial post-merger integration for Haldex has been mostly completed. Upcoming topics will be further steps in the legal entity consolidation, deeper IT integration as well as supply chain improvement at Haldex.

Kindly note, we would have seen around negative EUR 1 million restructuring or transaction costs from PMI activities, but these were offset by a provision release linked to the cyber tech. PPA provision of EUR 5.9 million is slightly above the communicated EUR 5 million run rate per quarter as negative FX effects impacted PPA in the third quarter 2023. Overall, PPA contained effects prior higher acquisitions as well as the Haldex-related PPA. PPA run rate going forward is expected unchanged to be around EUR 5 million per quarter.

Significant lower one-off items as well as efficiency improvements compared to prior periods lead to a significantly improved reported EBIT of more than EUR 50 million in Q3 2023. Nine months results with close to EUR 125 million adjusted EBIT -- of EBIT close to EUR 125 million and adjusted EBIT slightly over EUR 150 million are very solid achievements.

As the Q3 adjusted EBIT margin is at a far higher level than previous quarters, I'd like to explain the quarter-over-quarter development in more detail on Page 17. While sales of EUR 552.9 million were basically unchanged quarter-over-quarter, adjusted EBIT margin increased substantially to 10.6%. We have seen 3 effects driving this: a positive mix effect in the low single-digit million euros due to aftermarket share having increased from 31.7% in the past quarter to 33.9% in Q3. We achieved Haldex synergies in Q3, which were expected to come in Q4, so we have been faster in implementing this, also impacting margin positively. Biggest impact on adjusted EBIT margin were positive quarter-over-quarter transactional FX effects in the mid-single-digit million euros.

All regions recorded positive swing in FX effects from Q2 to Q3, impacting adjusted EBIT positively. Main drivers were Hungary and Poland, Turkish lira in EMEA, U.S. dollar for the Americas region and the Chinese renminbi for APAC. If you consider the first point being one-off, we still would have shown a margin of around 9.6% in Q3.

In sum, the third quarter is really a good proof point of what we have been addressing in road shows and conferences. Normalizing OEM demand is more than compensated by our resilient and very profitable aftermarket systems.

On Page 18, you see the bridge from EBIT to basic earnings per share for the quarter. EBIT was EUR 52.6 million in Q3, strongly up by 95.3% against prior year due to lower one-offs as well as strict cost control with cost of sales and SG&A growing slower than sales. Finance result was EUR 10.7 million, as it did not include a positive FX effect like in Q2. Run rate for finance expenses going forward is expected to be EUR 9 million, while finance income can fluctuate a bit from quarter-to-quarter due to FX rate developments.

Third quarter tax rate was close to 40% due to noncapitalized deferred tax assets on loss carryforwards and foreign tax rate differences at some subsidiaries. For the full year tax rate, we expect to end up around 35%, but it should normalize to around 30% going forward.

Both basic earnings per share with EUR 0.55 and adjusted earnings per share with EUR 0.78 were significantly up against prior year. And only as an additional remark, in 9 months 2023, we have already achieved EUR 1.37 earnings per share, which is higher than 2022 full year earnings per share.

Now I'm going to Page 19, where you see the development of the equity ratio. Despite the dividend payment towards shareholders in the second quarter of 2023 and negative FX effect, equity is up 6.2% compared to 31st of December 2022. Balance sheet total is up 13.9%, mainly due to the consolidation of Haldex. In sum, September 2023 equity ratio is, therefore, slightly down at 27.5% versus 29.5% for December 2022 but improved against March and June levels.

On Page 20, I would like to speak about the net working capital development. Net working capital ratio of SAF-Holland was 14.5%, following significant improvement against last quarter due to ongoing strict net working capital management. On a stand-alone basis, SAF-Holland would have shown 12.9% net working capital ratio, which is an excellent achievement. Against December 2022, net working capital increased due to the consolidation of Haldex, which has a significantly higher net working capital ratio at around the 20% mark. Considering this impact, 14.5% for the combined group is a very strong achievement.

The net working capital ratio still includes factoring at the same levels than previous quarters. Further expected net working capital improvements are planned to be used to reduce factoring and the related finance expenses. This means we should rather see stable levels of net working capital ratio going forward at least for the moment but improving finance expenses in the P&L. Overall, net working capital is and remains a top priority for me personally and for SAF-Holland.

Let me address the cash flow development on Page 21. We have seen a very strong development of operating cash flow and operating free cash flow in the first 9 months 2023. The strong increase in operating cash flow to EUR 128 million for September and EUR 84 million in Q3 was mainly due to higher earnings before taxes and strict net working capital management.

Cash taxes were around EUR 39 million in the first 3 quarters of 2023 or EUR 19 million in Q3, up versus previous year due to increased earnings before taxes in prior periods. Payments for investments in property, plant and equipment and intangible assets were around EUR 28 million until September, which means 1.7% of sales or EUR 13.8 million in Q3. That means 2.5% of group sales.

Operating free cash flow was slightly above EUR 100 million for September and EUR 71.1 million in Q3 2023, significantly increased against prior year. We have recorded a strong adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow conversion of 52.2% in the first 9 months and even 97.1% in Q3 2023.

As for Q4, we expect additional CapEx to flow through the cash flow statement. In sum, we stick to our target of the CapEx ratio being below 3% for the full year 2023. Still, we are confident to achieve a solid operating free cash flow amount in Q4 2023 as well.

ROCE can be seen on Page 22. Q3 ROCE was at a very strong 18.3%, another increase against prior quarter. The further increase of ROCE was due to the reduced capital employed, while EBIT last 12 months view further improved. During more than the past 10 quarters, ROCE has constantly been above that, meaning we have persistently created shareholder value.

Moving on to leverage on Page 23, including pro forma last 12 months EBITDA contribution of Haldex and related debt, our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio amounted to 2.1x, down from 31st of December '22 value of 2.6x. The strong deleveraging achievement in Q3 was due to ongoing strict working capital management, [ pay ups ] with a solid operating performance. Overall, due to strong cash generation, we decreased leverage already close to full year 2024 target or just an excellent result overall.

Having said this, back to you, Alex, for the market and outlook and closing remarks.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

All right. Thank you, Frank. This is Alex Geis again. I'm on Page 25, talking about the fiscal year '23 outlook for the trailer and truck markets. And I have to start with -- to say that due to the partially adverse economic environment and of course, persistent uncertainties surrounding the Ukraine conflict, the European trailer market measured in terms of production in '23 is unchanged, expected to decline slightly this year. The truck market, however, based on the strong OEM order backlog and ongoing customer demand is forecasted to grow by around 10% in EMEA in '23.

In North America, both was around 8% plus and truck markets with around plus 10%, are expected higher than the previous year.

And as I said before, based on infrastructure investments, increasing population and a positive economic development, the Indian market for trailers is forecasted to keep the strong momentum from the first 9 months and grow in the high double digits, and our current estimate is a growth of around 70%, 7-0 percent. We think the truck market in India could grow by around 14%.

In sum, we are expecting European trailer markets to normalize. While other important markets are said to keep on growing, especially North America for both trailer and trucks as well as the Indian trailer market.

In order to help to understand which region markets drives our performance, we keep the 2 pie charts included. So the calculation is based on Q3 '23 figures and including Haldex. And you can see that SAF-Holland trailer OEM business is skewed towards EMEA, while North America is second of importance to us and India third in relevance. And as of -- as for our truck OEM business, it's more geared to North America, so #1 market for us is North America with clearly more than 60% of sales being generated there. EMEA is #2 in importance and China #3.

And now let me speak about our updated fiscal year '23 outlook for the group on the next page, please. Mid-October, we increased our fiscal year '23 outlook another time since the development was outstanding in September, October, and based on the strong performance in the financial year-to-date, the continued solid demand for trailer and truck components, especially in the APAC and Americas region and a robust order backlog, group sales are now expected to reach around EUR 2.1 billion, around EUR 2.1 billion, assuming stable exchange rates and the sales contribution of Haldex as of February 21 of this year. We expect to reach the adjusted EBIT margin, including Haldex, of around 9.5% based on ongoing strong market demand from higher margin regions, Americas and APAC; the greater share of aftermarket sales; and good progress in achieving targeted synergies from the Haldex acquisition. But we are on a good way, so we are confident to reach this.

The outlook for CapEx ratio is unchanged at up to 3% and includes a focus on expanding production capacities in Mexico, India and Brazil as well as the group-wide implementation of SAP S/4HANA.

Ladies and gentlemen, while we will not give a guidance for the next year at this stage, but as fiscal year '24 is on investors' mind already, let me comment that we target to continuously show a stable margin performance supported by a resilient and profitable aftermarket business, operating on a full year basis continuously close to our fiscal year '23 margin target of 9% to 9.5%.

And let me please conclude the presentation with some key takeaways on Page 27. To summarize, SAF-Holland has achieved a strong performance across all metrics in Q3 in the first 9 months of this year despite OEM demand normalization in EMEA and increased profitability, combined with strict net working capital management led to strong operating free cash flow and deleveraging of 2.1x, also close to our fiscal year 2024 targets already. The double-digit growth here has been considerably above WACC, and this, of course, creates shareholder value. And we are targeting an adjusted EBIT margin of around 9.5% in this year, significantly up from the 8% of last year.

And ladies and gentlemen, this would conclude the presentation. Thank you very much for listening to us, and we now can start with your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Nicolai Kempf, Deutsche Bank.

[Nicolai Kempf, analyst]

It's Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank. I have 2 and the question #1, my first probably on the truck market for next year. I know you're more geared to trailer, but we always got some truck market indications for next year from the -- some of OEMs basically looking at volumes down 12% next year. Is it something you would see as reasonable or that you see kind of in your order take from OEMs currently?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Nicolai, this is Alex. And you know that I travel a lot. I meet a lot of customers, both trailer and truck but also of course, aftermarket. It is not [ reached ] that the market in truck would go down slightly by up to 10% next year in our 2 main markets, which is Europe but also in North America. At this point of time, we booked until beginning of next year with the main components, which are fifth wheels, our hook systems or the pintle hook systems but also with truck suspensions. At the moment, we see stable order intake.

We don't know what's going to happen in the second part of next year. But if I see what, for instance, Daimler came up with the beginning of this week, they are quite bullish. And also really from our side, we have another big potential. So fifth wheels and truck suspension is not the only thing we are going to sell in the future, but also specifically with Haldex acquisition, there are other opportunities coming up with truck manufacturers, and we're exploring those.

[Nicolai Kempf, analyst]

Okay. Understood. And my second one would be on Asia. Well done first of all. I mean, [ a couple of years ago ], this segment was loss making, so actually, pretty good turnaround here. I'm just wondering how dependent is that segment on volume and volume growth because, as I understand, you don't have so much aftermarket business. And if volumes come down, there's probably a risk that earnings are also coming down pretty quickly.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

No, I don't see this. So you are totally right that the aftermarket share in Asia is a little bit or is lower than the share of aftermarket in the rest of the world. So roughly 15% of total sales is coming from the aftermarket but the good thing is that the margins -- so we are not dependent on the aftermarket margins because OE comes with the same margin in the aftermarket.

It's totally different business like in North America or in India. And we have shown also last year, we can increase dramatically. For instance, in India, we have a new production facility we moved in. I was there 3 weeks ago. We installed another robot for a third welding line. And even if we go up or down by 20%, 30%, which I don't see for next year in India, by the way, it's going one direction. It's going up. We can keep it up.

We are very lean in India. So SG&A of white collar is -- it's very, very stable, and we can also adjust because we have a very flexible workforce in India. So this is not of a big concern.

We did a good work in Australia with diversifying our customer base. The truck business, Australia business [ is up by a bit ] but also in Southeast Asia, which we operate from Singapore. And with the combination of Haldex and SAF, we have now more cross-selling opportunities.

So we have a subsidiary in South Korea. They're now in constant dialogue with Singapore. They have the first achievements in Indonesia in the mining sector. So I'm happy.

And another big opportunity, which I mentioned before, our subsidiary in China. We have the Haldex subsidiary, checkmark. Money, SAF-Holland, which you know that we burned heavily in the past. We are now breakeven. We have a good plan. Orders are coming in for 2024. So we are confident that we can turn the whole ship here. And if those margins are also coming, then this will lift the profitability next year.

So with Asia, I have to say, 7 quarters with double digit, we will do that. We will achieve that with more orders coming in Asia, really checkmark. I'm happy about this development. We have a good team.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Holger Schmidt, DZ Bank.

[Holger Schmidt, analyst]

I have 2 questions. The first one is on the OE business, assuming a stronger decline in demand for the OE business in 2024, would you still expect your OE business to stay profitable? And what level of flexibility do you have with regard to your costs?

And the second question is with regard to the aftermarket business. It has developed very well so far. And what level of growth do you see for the aftermarket business in 2024 and over the midterm?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Okay. I also would take that question. The first one was if the OE business is declining next year, so in trailer or in truck, well, if the markets are declining, I see that in most high single-digit number, we can just swirl that away. We have flexible workforce, so blue collar, white collar. We have strict management of costs. Even if the increasing sales number is coming in, we didn't took too many people onboard because we know what's going to happen if the markets are dropping. Okay?

But as I said before, we have a couple of different product lines in the pipeline, both trailer and truck. We don't see a big risk that if the sales is declining by, let's assume, by 10% that we will have a big issue keeping our margins or the margins will not drop. That's the first thing.

And the second thing is this is why I always pushing. And some of you guys know my background is in aftermarket, so I was taking care 20 years of the aftermarket. I'm a firm believer of population. We created a huge population when we talk, for instance, EMEA in the last 3 years. Pulley markets, we gained market share in excellent suspensions. This population is now coming into the workshops.

So this makes me very confident with 1/3 of aftermarket now, and we are talking more than EUR 600 million now aftermarket sales. This is a huge number with steady profitable margins. We do good job not only in the first plant but also the second plant. So for the older vehicles, we're increasing sales. I'm very confident that we can keep up our aftermarket share sales but also the profitability.

[Holger Schmidt, analyst]

But what kind of growth rate can we assume here?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

In the aftermarket?

[Holger Schmidt, analyst]

Yes.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Do not report on single aftermarket growth rates. We reported regions, which is OE and aftermarket. So please, we don't report on single aftermarket growth rates.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Next question comes from Roland Konen, Value-Holdings.

[Roland Könen, analyst]

First of all, congrats to the very strong figures. My question -- and thanks for first indication of your margins in 2024 and where it has come from -- is coming from the aftermarket business. My question would be do you see in the aftermarket any kind of overstocking in the dealer network? So is there any risk of destocking of dealers going into the next year? Or is this just short-time business that there is no risk of overstocking there?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Well, basically, we speak with a lot of big and medium aftermarket dealers, both OES and independent aftermarket, both sides of our biggest markets, EMEA and Americas. There never has been an overstocking. There was maybe 1 quarter last year when the supply chains were really under pressure that the aftermarket guys tried to get as much material as possible. But as I said, that was somewhere around mid of 2022.

We check the stock levels. So we are connected with most of our customers by EDI. We can see the stock levels because there is sometimes an automatic restocking from our side with some customers. They are on a normal level. So it's not down. It's not up. I would just say top 20 customers after, but it's just a normal aftermarket level.

[Roland Könen, analyst]

Perfect. And an add-on question on the topic of your -- when you're speaking to your customers. When speaking to your trailer customers, what is the picture there for next year?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

It's a mixed picture. I was a little bit cautious in -- during the August time, I have to say, because the order intake and the biggest market is EMEA, so I speak about EMEA. Okay? I was a little bit cautious because the order intake, which is typically in August, not at a very high level because of the breakdowns, the summer breaks was not high. In September, it was, I would say, weak. So we thought what's coming.

But in October, all of a sudden, but also in November now, order intake is coming in much better on a much higher level, which was kind of surprising. So there is different segments, the current designer at the moment, for instance, for a company called Schmitz or [ Kohler ], it's not as good as it used to be the first half of '23, but all other segments, especially markets, tippers, flatbeds are quite strong.

I can tell you that we are here and the German plants are fully booked until January, and our Turkish plant is already overbooked until the end of the first quarter. So it's pretty good.

The overall assumption of all trailer manufacturers next year, there will be a slight decline in Europe. On the other side of the ocean in North America, we are also fully booked until beginning of next year. The container chassis market is weak at the moment, but all other trailers, the order books are full. We get orders. And to give you a magnitude, the container chassis business is about 15%, 1-5 percent of the overall trailer market in North America.

We stay cautious. We watch the order intake, but so far, knock on wood, we are happy, and we have visibility already until the end of the first quarter of next year.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Jorge González Sadornil, Hauck Aufhäuser Investment Banking.

[Jorge González Sadornil, analyst]

Congratulations on the results. Sorry for asking this again. I have some issues with the telephone. So I listened to you, and I heard that you are still expecting stable margins for next year on solid aftermarket contribution. I don't know if I have missed any figure or it was just this comment, just following the question of my colleague before. That will be my first one, please.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Well, I said that everybody speaking already about 2024, very close. Of course, we are not giving any guidance in sales and margins for next year already now. But what we can see, we have a lot of new products coming in pipelines. We have some cost measuring -- or cost savings measures in place, and we will have a full year Haldex synergy coming next year. Okay?

As you know, as a reminder, we only consolidate Haldex from end of February of this year, so we will have a full run rate of our savings. We already did this year but full rate next year. And I said that we trust ourselves that we will come in with a margin in the ballpark of our 2027 targets, which we announced, which will be around 9% to 9.5% adjusted EBIT margin.

[Jorge González Sadornil, analyst]

So my question will be around the different, I mean, factors that you think are key for next year, what we should take into account in terms of pricing, in terms of inflation, cost material inflation, salaries. What can you tell us about this for next year?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

When it goes up and down -- scrap steel went down in summer, September. Now it's going a little bit up. Okay? Again, so August from September, it's now 5% up. We are working constantly with our suppliers, offer them good deals. We typically have a dual-supplier strategy. Best price wins for the same quality.

We are attractive for our suppliers because, most of the time, we are one of the big customers. But I want to make sure that we also, in 2024, buy from these guys. I also did a lot of times the purchasing for the group. We, as I said, speak with our suppliers. Some materials are going up. Some materials are going down. If you would ask me for an estimate of price level, I think it remains same '24 over '23 if nothing crazy is going to happen.

[Frank Lorenz-Dietz, executive]

Yes. And Jorge, if we talk about personnel costs, we always have to work on productivity. As every year, we have increasing salaries, we have to work on productivity activities. We grow a lot in countries with lower salary levels. So overall, it's the same year-over-year topic. We have to balance every year. So we will not give any guidance for next year, but I think it's nothing that is new or totally different than it has been in the past.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

To give a little bit more meat on the bone, speaking for North America, you know that we announced that a couple of times that we are moving some of our production facilities or capabilities from the U.S., which is high salary territory, to Mexico, so reported that beginning of last year, we upgraded our warehouse in [ Queretaro ], which is close to Mexico, 2 hours away. We have a dedicated aftermarket assembly line. This is fully operational.

I'm very happy about this, so we can sell everything to the aftermarket. But also, we have just moved in last month in our first warehouse and production facilities in Piedras Negras that's in north of Mexico-Texan border. We moved in. First stage is to do fifth wheel, so a fully blown fifth wheel production place for both OE and aftermarket, mainly for our Mexican truck.

Production sites, so North American, everybody has production sites in Mexico, so we would like to fulfill the demand. And the orders we are getting, second stage, then also to consolidate more when it comes to axles, landing legs and sliding systems where we are market leader with 70%. And by doing that, of course, then we get -- we can participate on the lower wages and lower costs. And this is also what we are working on, and this is in the pipeline. As I said, we moved in October, so this is fully operational then starting from 2024. And next stages are coming mid of next year. So from this perspective, I think we will overcome our cost challenges by next year.

[Jorge González Sadornil, analyst]

Very useful. And maybe a last one. Regarding the market in North America, the freight volumes this year have not been excellent. Despite the demand was strong, the trade volumes were not really strong. So I am wondering, if the economy starts to pick up next year, this can translate maybe in a strong growth for the aftermarket. Or you don't foresee much different even if the freight volumes recover through the year next year?

[Alexander Geis, executive]

Well, I have to say, if the markets would be as bullish -- if the markets in '24 would be as bullish as the market in '23, we'll be very happy because we are outgrowing the market in truck business, in the trailer business. We got a lot of market share this year, and we are also growing the aftermarket. You guys know we have a dedicated aftermarket.

So basically, we have 2 companies within the company. One is really taking care of the aftermarket-dedicated people, specialists. We will be growing the aftermarket also next year because of the population we did, not only in North America but also on the EMEA side. To what extent? I will not display because we don't report the aftermarket, but this is the target, of course. We have dedicated aftermarket company within the company. The plan is clearly to also grow the aftermarket, but we also would like to grow OE since we have some new products, new capabilities, capacity also.

So yes. And there is -- internally, there is a race to EUR 1 billion between the 2 regions. I always make a joke that the president who gets the first EUR 1 billion will win the candlelight dinner with me. Okay. That's the internal joke. But we will come there. If we will come there next year or the year after but I'm pretty sure that the 2 big regions, EMEA and Americas, will sooner already have reached the first EUR 1 billion in their territory.

[Operator]

We have no further questions.

[Alexander Geis, executive]

No further questions. Any more questions? Okay. Then, everybody, thank you very much for listening to us and for your trust in the company as shareholders, investors but also analysts. More to come, and hopefully, you can see us and hear us in 3 months from now when we report on a beautiful Q4 also. Thank you.

[Frank Lorenz-Dietz, executive]

Thank you.