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XETRA:P911

Earnings Call Analysis

Porsche Q1 2024 Results and Outlook

Porsche faced a challenging start to 2024 with Q1 vehicle sales dropping by 16.7% due to lower product availability and economic issues in China. Revenue fell by 10.8% to €9.0 billion, but the operating profit margin remained strong at 14.2%. Porsche plans a product offensive, introducing new models like the electric Macan and Taycan, aiming for a better second half. The company anticipates 2024 revenue between €40-42 billion with an operating return on sales of 15-17%. Strategic investments in innovation and digitalization remain high, while the order book, especially for the 911, remains robust.

Introduction and Product Highlights

Porsche AG commenced 2024 with new all-electric models, presenting the Macan and Taycan at the Beijing Motor Show, receiving encouraging feedback. The company's ongoing product offensive includes the new Panamera, Taycan, Macan, and 911, positioning it favorably for future growth with a focus on efficient internal combustion engines (ICEs), plug-in hybrids, and all-electric vehicles.

Quarterly Performance Overview

Porsche's first quarter of 2024 was marked by challenges such as significantly lower product availability, impacting fixed cost coverage, and substantial investments in product innovation and digitalization. The company sold 70,600 vehicles, a decline of 16.7% from the previous year, largely due to product changeovers and weaker demand in China's luxury market.

Financial Results

Porsche reported a group revenue of EUR 9.0 billion for the first quarter, a 10.8% decline, alongside a group operating profit of EUR 1.3 billion at a margin of 14.2%. Earnings per preferred share were EUR 1.02. Automotive revenues per vehicle sold increased by 4.7% to EUR 115,000 despite lower availability. The automotive segment's operating profit stood at EUR 1.2 billion with a 14.8% operating return on sales.

Product Demand and Pricing

The order book remains robust, especially for the 911 and the new Macan, which has gathered 12,000 orders. Higher pricing, driven by last year's price increases and more individualized options, pushed the average sales price to EUR 105,000 per vehicle this quarter. Porsche anticipates higher deliveries of the Macan in the second half of 2024.

Operating and R&D Investments

The company continued its extensive investments with over EUR 1.5 billion spent on CapEx and R&D in the first quarter, pushing the R&D ratio to 13.4%. Increased expenses were attributed to the introduction phase of ongoing projects, along with higher sales and marketing costs due to digitalization strategies and product launches.

Outlook for 2024

Looking ahead, Porsche expects a stronger second half of 2024, anticipating group revenue between EUR 40 billion and EUR 42 billion. Forecasted operating return on sales is 15% to 17%, with the automotive segment's EBITDA margin ranging from 24% to 26%. The company foresees net cash flow margins of 8.5% to 10.5%, supporting its significant investments in product innovation and digitalization.

Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation

Porsche plans a dividend payment of EUR 2.1 billion for 2023, equating to EUR 2.30 per ordinary share and EUR 2.31 per preferred share. The company aims to maintain an annual dividend payout around 50% in the midterm, underscoring its commitment to shareholder value amidst ongoing transformation and peak CapEx and R&D levels.

Final Remarks

Porsche's dedication to high-performance luxury vehicles remains unwavering, driven by a passion for sports cars and customer satisfaction. The company's ambitious 'Road to 20' program targets further improvement in long-term return targets, anticipating strong earnings growth and profitability in 2025, supported by a refreshed product portfolio and robust demand indicators.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Björn Scheib, executive]

Hello, and welcome to our analyst and investor call on the Q1 2024 numbers of Porsche AG. My name is Bjorn Scheib, and with me is our CFO and Deputy Chairman of the Executive Board, Lutz Meschke. Today, we would like to give you a brief insight and overview of our business performance in the first 3 months of this year. As you can expect, all materials, such as the investors' deck or interim report, are available on the Investors section of the Porsche website.

Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we will make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included in the Porsche materials. This call will be also governed by this language.

With that said, Lutz, welcome, and I would love to hand over to you.

[Lutz Meschke, executive]

Thank you, Bjorn. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2024 disclosure call. Today, we want to inform you about our first quarter performance and the rest of the year that lies ahead of us.

I have just returned from Beijing, where we presented our new all-electric Macan and Taycan 4 at the Beijing Motor Show. The initial feedback was quite positive, especially on our innovative features like the new head-up display with augmented reality in the Macan or the localized infotainment portfolio of the Taycan, although the reaction to our other new product was very encouraging.

In 2024, we are boldly forging ahead with our product offensive. With the new Panamera, Taycan, Macan and 911, we are putting ourselves in an ideal position for the years ahead to exploit our structural growth potential. We will have a very young and attractive product portfolio with iconic and emotional sports cars, and we stay committed to a combination of 3 types of powertrains, efficient ICEs, exciting plug-in hybrids and innovative all-electric models.

In Q2 2024, first benefits can be awaited. We look to have higher availability of the new Panamera and the new Taycan.

For the full year 2024, Porsche AG Group confirms its forecast published in context of our full year '23 results. Overall, we expect a better second half compared to the first half of 2024.

But now let's take a look at our performance in Q1. Our business in the first 3 months was characterized by 2 effects. First, significantly lower product availability resulted in fewer fixed cost coverage. And second, we continued with our diligent execution of our strategy, combined with peak investments for product innovation, our brand and the digitalization of our ecosystem. All of this significantly impacted our numbers. But as we have previously mentioned, with Q1 behind us, our performance is expected to improve from here.

In the first 3 months, we sold 70,600 vehicles. This corresponds to a decline of 16.7% to previous year. This decline was a result of the following effects. The reshaped changeovers for Taycan and Panamera in this quarter resulted in a temporary lower output and product availability and thus affected our mix. China demand in the luxury segment continues to suffer from the economic situation. As outlined before, we remain stringent in executing our value over volume strategy. In addition, we benefited from initial post-COVID catch-up effects in Q1 2023.

In North America, vehicle sales were also negatively impacted. This was a consequence of temporary supply restrictions due to regulatory requirements for some of our models that affected us at the beginning of the year. At the same time, we are proud that our overseas and emerging markets continue to grow their sales share, leading to a balanced and, therefore, resilient global sales mix.

Let's now turn to the financial results. Group revenue in the first 3 months was EUR 9.0 billion, a decline by 10.8%. As mentioned, this development is reflecting the significantly lower vehicle availability. On the other hand, we benefited from a better product mix and pricing, leading to an under-proportional decline of group revenues compared to our vehicle sales.

Group operating profit was EUR 1.3 billion at a margin of 14.2%. The earnings per preferred share for the first 3 months amounted to EUR 1.02.

Let's now talk about our customer demand. Our order book is quite strong, covering our planned production this year very well. As before, the 911 has the largest order book, a strong model mix and the longest waiting time.

Recently, we announced that we have collected 12,000 orders for the new Macan. Here, we see also a very satisfying mix, and we just opened the order books in China yesterday. Please understand that we will not give updates on the incoming orders of single products on a quarterly basis. And let me repeat, we are well on track for delivery of the new Macan in the second half of the year with higher deliveries in the last quarter.

Pricing, again, was positive, benefiting from the price increases last year and a higher degree of individualization. The average sales price on retails this quarter was EUR 105,000 per vehicle only. The automotive revenues reflected the outlined lower vehicle availability where retails were supported by the release of vehicles which had already been in the supply chain since Q4. Automotive revenues per vehicle sold, on the other hand, increased by 4.7% to EUR 115,000 per vehicle. In this context, we also want to repeat again that fewer China sales are dilutive to the global ASP as our China sales include import tariffs and consumption tax.

Automotive revenues amounted to EUR 8.1 billion year-to-date. The operating return on sales for automotive was 14.8%.

The Automotive segment's operating profit in the first 3 months of 2024 was at EUR 1.2 billion. Once again, the weak start into the year is mainly a function of the product changeovers, which resulted in lower product supply and revenues. At the same time, the cost of goods sold increased due to the continued material cost inflation and the higher spending on R&D for the upcoming product portfolio.

In the first quarter, we also booked higher sales and marketing expenses resulting from our digitalization strategy, motor sports, as well as our product and brand activities such as the world premiere of the new Macan.

Porsche is committed to continue to inspire its customers with desirable and high-performance vehicles in the luxury segment and to further advance its strategy of value-creating growth. This is the foundation for our consistent stellar financial performance in the future. Thus, we spent more than EUR 1.5 billion on CapEx and research and development only in this quarter. The R&D ratio was quite high at 13.4%. As mentioned before, the increase is due to the rising expenditure for ongoing projects which are in the introduction phase or close to being ready for series production.

Capitalized R&D amounted to around EUR 0.8 billion in the first 3 months. Depreciation and amortization of capitalized development costs amounted to around EUR 300 million. Thus, the expense of R&D was around EUR 200 million higher than last year, equaling 7.0% of automotive revenues.

Automotive EBITDA in the first 3 months was EUR 1.9 billion, corresponding to an automotive EBITDA margin of 23.4%. We earned an automotive net cash flow of EUR 107 million. The temporary low net cash flow is a result of 4 factors, a significantly weaker operating cash flow, which was around EUR 800 million lower year-over-year. The 2 key effects were the low operating result because of the factors outlined before and temporarily higher inventories of Panamera and Taycan as well as restrictions due to regulatory requirements in the U.S.

Our cash flow from investing activities reflects our continued spending for the development of our brand and ecosystem. This includes higher investment for product innovation.

And as addressed in context of our full year 2023 disclosure, in the first quarter, we entered in partnerships for the digitalization of our vehicles and our ecosystem. Here, we invested a mid-3-digit million amount. This includes a stake in applied intuition supporting our development cooperation, which will further strengthen our business model in terms of car IT and driver experience. At the end of the first quarter, our automotive net liquidity was at EUR 7.3 billion.

Financial Services revenue amounted to around EUR 900 million in the first 3 months. The operating profit of the Financial Services segment was EUR 58 million. The result is mainly driven by the valuation of interest rate hedging transactions and derivatives outside hedge accounting in the context of regular refinancing activities.

The reversals in loan loss provisions were lower than in the same period of the previous year. But let me repeat, the credit quality of our book is still very, very strong.

Our Financial Services penetration in the first 3 months was 33.9%, which was 770 basis points lower than last year. This development reflects that we pass on the market terms in our offers.

Let's move on to the outlook for 2024. Ahead of us are 3 quarters where we will benefit more and more from our new product and improved pricing. Panamera, Taycan, Macan and 911 offer great opportunities, and not to forget that these new launches will be offered with continuously increasing individualization possibilities. Reflecting our robust order book and improved availability of the new Panamera and Taycan, we have a good foundation for sequential stronger unit sales, revenues and profitability starting in Q2 '24 and delivering a better second half of 2024.

We also expect better price and mix due to our price increase from last year, the planned price increases for the upcoming model year, the price increases for the new products, the special editions and the higher take rates on individualization. But the model changeovers of Macan and 911 in the coming quarters will also require additional tasks and hard work by our teams. We have to deal with the ramp-down as well as the ramp-up of the production for these products in 2 plants. Also these reshaped changeovers will result in a temporary lower output, supply and will also affect our mix in Q3.

Based on our performance culture, we will continue to resolutely push ahead with our strategy and will invest into our product, brand and innovation. The spending into our ecosystem today will be the revenues and earnings of tomorrow. So, as an accelerating business in Q2 and reflecting our overall assumptions for 2024, we expect our group revenue to amount between EUR 40 billion to EUR 42 billion in 2024. Here, we will remain attentive and consistently focus on the value-oriented development in the Chinese market.

On the cost side, we have to expect that we will have to deal with the continued inflationary cost trend in materials, labor and SG&A, plus the mentioned customer satisfaction initiatives and fragile supply chains. In particular, we have to pay attention to industrialization regarding new suppliers to the brand.

Due to the 4 launches, we also forecast increasing D&A of capitalized R&D and fixed assets. Reflecting all the parameters, we anticipate a group operating return on sales in the range of 15% to 17% in 2024, all based on the expectation that we will not face implications from the growing geopolitical tensions.

Our forecast for the Automotive segment is an EBITDA margin between 24% and 26% and a net cash flow margin in the range of 8.5% to 10.5%. This range includes our continued investments in the upcoming product portfolio, digitalization, brand and other strategic projects and partnerships.

Let me also share a couple of thoughts on our disciplined capital allocation strategy. The Executive Board and Supervisory Board have proposed to the Annual General Meeting a dividend payment of EUR 2.1 billion for the financial year 2023. That's EUR 2.30 per ordinary share and EUR 2.31 per preferred share. The dividend will be paid out in the days following our virtual Annual Meeting on Friday, June 7, 2024. As we want our shareholders to participate in our future earnings, Porsche AG intends to pay an annual dividend of around 50% in the midterm.

Reflecting our transformation, CapEx and R&D are at peak level right now. As you may remember from our capital allocation discussions during the IPO process, we are targeting a net liquidity ratio of 15% to 20% of automotive net revenues.

Let me summarize. It is our passion for sports cars that drives us, and nothing will ever change our goal to always excite our customers. We are driven by dreams. We bring all our knowledge from the racetrack and combine it with our tradition and principles, precisely tailoring everything we do to the needs and wishes of our customers. Thereby, we do not solely offer great products but a unique experience.

At Porsche, we take challenges as an opportunity to excel. Porsche is switching to sport mode to further boost our resilience and be able to better counter uncertainties in the markets. This will provide us with a strong foundation for the years to come.

At the same time, we are pushing ahead with our ambitious Road to 20 program. With it, we want to further expand our long-term return target, which we are now working through systematically.

For 2025, we are confident concerning a strong acceleration in earnings and a return to our midterm profitability range of 17% to 19%. This expectation is supported by a comprehensively renewed product portfolio as well as positive mix effects. Continued robustness of demand indicators further bolster the credibility of this scenario, and we can continue to act from a position of strength. Our customers' feedback shows us that we are on the right track here. An exciting, important time lies ahead of us, and we know how to use it.

Thank you very much for your attention.