thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co KgaA
XETRA:NCH2
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Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co KgaA
The story begins with thyssenkrupp nucera's maiden earnings call as a publicly listed company, a milestone preceded by a successful IPO, the largest hydrogen-focused IPO worldwide, yielding a 7% share price increase post-listing. Capital raised from the IPO, amounting to EUR 526 million, is earmarked to bolster the company's growth strategy and reinforce their standing as a leader in water electrolysis technology for green hydrogen production.
The third quarter showcases an accelerated sales growth, with green hydrogen sales rising 11-fold and total sales surging by 90%. A significant order backlog supports this strong performance. The company has signed significant contracts, including one of Europe’s largest green hydrogen projects with H2 Green Steel, intending to install over 700 megawatts of electrolysis capacity. Moreover, thyssenkrupp nucera is closing in on a 1.5 gigawatt contract in North America, which would nearly quadruple their contracted hydrogen electrolyzer capacity to 4 gigawatts.
As part of its operational strategy, thyssenkrupp nucera is strengthening its supply chain to support a 5 gigawatt supply capacity by fiscal year-end '25/'26. The strategy also involves implementing a new ERP system and engineering tools, attracting new talent to support growth, and establishing an ESG governance structure. They also obtained their first ISO energy management certificate in Germany, with the anticipation to publish a GRI compliant sustainability report in December '24.
Q3 saw a moderate EBIT increase from EUR 4 million to EUR 7 million, though the EBIT margin declined slightly to 3.7% from 4.4% a year earlier. A decline in margins is anticipated for Q4 due to ramp-up and development costs. Despite this, the full year’s EBIT margin is expected to remain positive. It's important to note that higher operating expenses are anticipated to influence EBIT into the next fiscal year as the company aims to expand capacity for projected growth.
The future may pose challenges with ramp-up costs set to grow notably in Q4 and the next fiscal year. These include investments to develop the alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) business, which will likely capitalize on its margins. While Q4 CapEx is predicted to be low, expectations are set for a significant increase in the following fiscal year. Globally, thyssenkrupp nucera sees potential in strategically important markets like India and plans to expand its footprint there and in other regions step-by-step. The company aims to use its resources effectively, initially focusing on Europe and the U.S., and then expanding into new markets over time.
Despite H2 Green Steel transitioning from the project pipeline to an executed contract, thus impacting the average project size, the company maintains a substantial pipeline with ample opportunities for growth. The project pipeline includes an aggregated capacity of more than 46 gigawatts, and the company is optimistic about converting these opportunities into additional project wins.
After the IPO, thyssenkrupp nucera has secured its own guarantee lines with various banks, a shift from relying on thyssenkrupp's guarantees pre-IPO. This strategic move is expected to aid in managing cash flows without major cash-outs from guarantees unless a customer exercises such a guarantee, which the company does not foresee.
Concluding the analysis, thyssenkrupp nucera acknowledges the near-term dip in EBIT as a trade-off for expanded operations to capitalise on long-term opportunities. Commitment to the growth strategy remains unshaken, with guidance for Q4 projecting increased sales but a negative EBIT margin reflecting strategic investments. The EBIT outlook for the next fiscal year has yet to be released, but the company expects higher expenses associated with ramping up the AWE business. Meanwhile, the company reasserts its growth targets, including the breakeven points for AWE EBIT and group free cash flow.
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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 9M Earnings Call. This call is the very first earnings call for thyssenkrupp nucera as a listed company, and we are very happy that you dialed in and appreciate your interest in our company.
With me today are our CEO, Werner Ponikwar; and our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt. They will guide you through today's presentation.
But now before we start, let me briefly address some formalities. Firstly, this call is being recorded. The replay will be available on our website later today. Secondly, don't forget that today's presentation and potentially some answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. For additional information in this regard, please refer to the disclaimer.
And with that, let me hand over to our CEO, Werner Ponikwar.
Yes. Thank you very much, Hendrik, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Also a warm welcome from my side to our analyst and investor call. I'm very pleased that you are with us today for the presentation of our company's business performance over the third quarter of our financial year '22, '23.
But before we jump right in, let me start with a short recap to our IPO. Just 7 weeks ago, we had our listing event at the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The IPO was undeniably one of the most important highlights in the company's history. And it was also by far, the largest hydrogen IPO in the world and one of the most successful IPOs in Germany over the last years. Our shares under the, I believe, very well fitting ticker symbol NCH2, started trading on the stock exchange with an offer price of EUR 20 and have since then risen by around 7%. We will use the IPO proceeds of EUR 526 million to systematically drive forward our growth strategy. And we will use it to further expand our position as the world's leading supplier of water electrolysis technology to produce green hydrogen.
But the IPO was not only about the facts and figures I just mentioned. It was a process in which we have met more than 250 investors in physical and virtual meetings. And I assume many of you in the call today were part of that. Your high interest and the various questions raised opened up new perspectives for us, and it felt overall very encouraging. We look forward to continuing that dialogue with you, and today's Q3 earnings call will only be, of course, the beginning.
Now let me start with the highlights of our third quarter of the fiscal year. For me, four development stands out. Firstly, our high sales growth continued and even accelerated and the further strengthening of our organization is progressing according to our plans. And secondly, the high and increasing demand for our electrolysis led to an increase in order intake in the third quarter. That was mainly driven by our chlor-alkali business, where we have secured orders of more than EUR 200 million. The equally strong momentum for water electrolysis is demonstrated by the contracts signed with H2 Green Steel for one of the largest green hydrogen project in Europe and the capacity reservation in North America, which we announced in June for a project of a similar size.
Thirdly, the first 4 scalum 20 megawatts alkaline water electrolysis modules have been delivered to different customers who are now in the process of assembling and commissioning the plans. According to our customer latest plans, that should happen over the course of the next few months. And finally, group sales increased by 90%, driven by an 11-fold increase in green hydrogen sales. Of course, that happened against a small base, but demonstrates the great progress we make on our projects as well. But also in absolute terms, and this is a development we are very proud of. We have posted a triple-digit million euro sales figure for the first time in a single quarter for this business.
Now on the next slide, I will provide some more color on the most important developments in our business starting with our strong order book momentum on Page 7. For our green hydrogen business, and I have already mentioned it, we have signed one of the largest green hydrogen projects in Europe to install over 700 megawatts of electrolysis capacities for H2 Green Steel. The hydrogen will be used to replace coke coal in the steelmaking process of the to-be-built fully integrated green steel plant in Sweden. The first phase of project execution has started already and is well on track.
We have also signed a reservation agreement. And in the meantime, also a so-called early works agreement for the supply of more than 30 of our scalum 20-megawatt modules to one of the biggest green hydrogen projects in North America. This is well in line with our strategy for North America and demonstrates our competitiveness also in these important regions for us.
If we will be able to convert this capacity reservation into a full contract over the next months, both projects combined would represent almost 1.5 gigawatt in electrolyzer capacity. And with that, we would have almost 4 gigawatts of hydrogen electrolyzer capacity under contract. And this is by far unmatched in our industry and reflects the high trust of our customers in our products and in our organization.
And this holds true, of course, also for the chlor-alkali business, where we have a decade long proven track record in delivering large-scale electrolyzer plants to our industrial client base. The partnership with OxyChem and other significant new build orders from South America shows that we are the preferred partners for the industry. With our world-class technology, we help our clients to modernize and to transform the existing plant base in line with governmental regulations and an economically attractive manner.
Next is our project pipeline, and you have probably seen the chart a couple of times before already. And with great pleasure, I can say that the message stays the same as well. Accelerating demand for large-scale green hydrogen electrolysis fuels our project pipeline with the strongest market dynamics currently seen in North America. We work on our organizational ramp-up and the implementation of our growth strategy in order to deliver against this pipeline of an aggregated project capacity of more than 46 gigawatts and to leverage the opportunities presented by it.
I am very optimistic that we will convert the extensive pipeline into further project wins for us in the future. This does not mean that there will be necessarily be something to report in the current Q4. But in principle, you can always expect news from us.
On Page 9, we present details and examples for the most important developments in our companies. Let's start with operations. As a key focus area, we continue to strengthen and expand our supply chain to arrive at 5 gigawatt supply chain by the end of '25, '26. We are well on track to achieve that. At the same time, we are also setting up the internal processes in a way that they can more effectively and efficiently support the growth of our operations globally. One relevant development in that regard was the selection of a new global ERP system and a streamlined global set of engineering tools.
And to successfully implement our growth program, we also need sufficient manpower of course. And therefore, I am happy to say that we were and are able to attract many new talents to our platform. At the end of June, we already had 628 employees on board, and that number is outdated already as we keep on growing.
Also around ESG, important steps we have taken by setting up a central ESG steering and a global governance structure to see and guide our ESG strategy. Along with that, we were also able to obtain our first ISO energy management certificate here in Germany. Our first own GRI compliance sustainable report will be ready and published as planned for the fiscal year '23, '24 in December '24.
And with that, I will hand over to our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt, who will walk you through our financials. Over to you, Arno.
Thank you very much, Werner. A warm welcome also from my side. I would like to outline the key developments in our financial figures and to provide an outlook for the final quarter of the current fiscal year.
Let's move to Page 11. thyssenkrupp nucera kept on growing in the third quarter. Our latest high-performance generation of environmentally frenzy chlor-alkali electrolysis led to an increase in our order backlog. While the order backlog for green hydrogen was slightly lower than a year earlier, in line with the ongoing project execution. It is important to keep in mind that the order from H2 Green Steel is yet to be reflected in the order intake in full.
The group's sales grew by 90% compared to the previous year, driven by an 11-fold alkaline water electrolysis sales increase year-on-year. In EBIT, we recorded an absolute increase in earnings due to volume effects, which was only partially compensated by start-up costs in line with our growth strategy. The termination of the cash pool with thyssenkrupp AG led to a sharp increase in cash and cash equivalents. But ultimately, this was mainly a shift within the balance sheet. Cash flows from operating activities were lower than a year earlier due to the processing of down payments received and higher inventories.
On Page 12, we have a more detailed look on order intake. In the third quarter, order intake reached EUR 242 million, 13% above the corresponding prior year figure. The increase in order intake was driven primarily by a strong performance in chlor-alkali new build business in North and South America. Chlor-alkali in total almost doubled from EUR 112 million to EUR 214 million of order intake. At the same time, order intake of the green hydrogen business was below previous year. Here, it is important to state that the H2 Green Steel project was initially only included in order intake at the end of June with a low double-digit million euro amount and therefore, less than 10% and of the contractually agreed total volume. We expect the remainder to be booked in the next quarters.
Cumulated over the first 9 months of the current fiscal year, order intake reached EUR 535 million, which was significantly lower than a year earlier, but in line with expectations. Last year's order intake had been dominated by the major NEOM project in Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest green hydrogen project to date. The order backlog at the end of June 2023 stands at around EUR 1.5 billion with the alkaline water electrolysis business contributing around EUR 1 billion.
Now diving into our sales development on Page 13. High growth in the green hydrogen sector boosted sales in the third quarter by 90% to EUR 187 million. Also worthwhile mentioning that the share of sales accounted for by the green hydrogen business exceeded that of the chlor-alkali business for the first time. The 11-fold increase in the alkaline water electrolysis sector was mainly driven by projects in the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.
In chlor-alkali, sales decreased to EUR 77 million. Here, the pleasing growth in the new build business was offset by lower service sales compared to a very high level last year. In the first 9 months of '22, '23, group sales increased significantly by 79% to EUR 493 million. The Green Hydrogen business grew dynamically with sales in the alkaline water electrolysis sector multiplying to EUR 240 million. In the chlor-alkali sector, sales were slightly up on the prior year period at EUR 254 million. Overall, I think that the recent sales development is rather impressive. And it proves again that we are on the right track to live up to our ambitions.
Moving to the EBIT development on Page 14. In our third quarter, EBIT increased from EUR 4 million to EUR 7 million. The increased earnings contribution from higher sales was partly offset by planned higher structural and development costs for the implementation of the growth strategy. thyssenkrupp nucera achieved an EBIT margin of 3.7% compared with 4.4% a year earlier. A further decline in margins is expected for the final quarter, but I'll go into that in detail in a moment.
EBIT for the first 9 months was EUR 20 million, EUR 9 million higher than the corresponding figure for the previous year. The main drivers for this pleasing development are: volume effects and the robust EBIT margin, which is almost on prior year level. Higher sales in the alkaline water electrolysis business and improvements in new chlor-alkali business were only partly offset by higher costs for organizational capacity expansion for future growth.
On the next Page 15, let's have a look on our balance sheet. Even before our IPO, our balance sheet was solid and strong, thanks to the profitable business and advanced payments received. The IPO has strengthened it further, but that will only be visible in the Q4 financial statements given the IPO happened in July and thus after the Q3 closing. We will use the primary proceeds of EUR 526 million to finance our strong growth in green hydrogen and the corresponding research and development expenses and CapEx, and also to strengthen our financial position and to meet the requirements of our business partners.
How we see Q4 is stated on Page 16. Ladies and gentlemen, it is late August, our financial year ends in a couple of weeks. So let's look at our expectations for the fourth quarter of '22, '23. Sales at thyssenkrupp nucera are expected to grow strongly again in Q4, driven by the ongoing execution of the significant green hydrogen order backlog. We expect a negative EBIT margin in the fourth quarter. But for the full year '22/'23, our EBIT will remain positive.
We have mentioned that in the past, and I'm sure that you are aware of that. We are as planned and as communicated in the process of creating a stronger organization, which will be able to grow capacity to 5 gigawatts by the end of our fiscal year '25, '26 to execute our projects with growing profitability and by that, to leverage from the tremendous growth opportunities which lie ahead of us. That is why we will see an acceleration of ramp-up costs and a temporary dip in earnings in the upcoming financial year. Still, the year '23, '24 will bring us much closer to our mid- and long-term ambition.
Let me quickly remind you of our targets. On the next Page 17. The stronger organizational structure and the implementation of our strategy creates the conditions for dynamic growth in the medium term and for the consistent and profitable execution of our projects. Therefore, we confirm all of our medium- and long-term targets that we announced during the IPO. Among others, we expect alkaline water electrolysis sales of EUR 600 million to EUR 700 million in the next financial year and alkaline water electrolysis sales of EUR 850 million to EUR 950 million in the year '24, '25. AWE EBIT breakeven is expected in the year '24, '25. And free cash flow breakeven for the group around the year '25, '26. We can tell you that we at thyssenkrupp nucera are fully committed and well on track to achieve those targets.
With that, I hand back to our CEO, Werner Ponikwar, who will summarize our Q3 update.
Well, thank you, Arno.
So from our point of view, what are the most important business developments in our -- in this quarter. The third quarter shows you the high momentum in our business continues. We achieved a high above-market sales growth reflected in an 11-fold increase in green hydrogen sales supported by a substantial order backlog. Order intake increased in the chlor-alkali business, while the AWE business continues to expand successfully. We continue to increase our capacity and overall supply chain as planned to meet the increasing customer demand for our solutions. This will, of course, lead to higher costs, which will impact the fourth quarter of '22, '23 as well as our financial year '23, '24. However, we are very much convinced that thyssenkrupp nucera has significant upside potential in the mid- to long term due to our strong market position in a dynamically growing industry.
With that, thank you for your attention, and we are now looking forward to receiving your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Michael Kuhn, Deutsche Bank.
Congrats on your [ tightening ] first quarter. A few questions. I'll ask them one by one. And firstly, on the time lines of 2 projects, H2 Green Steel and the reservation agreement. Obviously, not on the month, but can you provide us with some broad indication on when you expect H2 Green Steel to be booked in the order intake and for the reservation agreement, when you expect it to potentially turn into a firm order?
So yes, for the reservation agreement, as mentioned, we have already signed an early works agreement right now. So we are actively worked already on that project based on that agreement that we have concluded. In the -- so actually, we are expecting to convert this reservation agreement into a fully fledged EPF contract within the next 2 quarters. For H2 Green Steel, as mentioned, there is only a very small fraction currently in the order intake, reflected within the next 2 quarters, actually, we expect that we will be able to reflect H2 Green Steel in our order intake to the full extent.
Fantastic. And then one on your EBIT outlook for the fourth quarter and the negative EBIT contribution. You already mentioned the higher ramp-up costs. Do you also expect a lower gross profit, or is that solely a function of the higher OpEx?
I think that question goes to me here, Arno Pfannschmidt speaking. Yes, we have indeed a higher ramp-up costs. That means we have here development expenses, and we are not capitalizing it this expense. We think it will significantly grow in quarter 4 and also in the next fiscal year. We have here a further cost and the ramp-up, which are front-loaded before we get the benefits from them. That means also the increase in personnel will further increase and be a burden here on the EBIT line. Regarding the gross profit, to please be aware that we are having a mix effect that we will get more and more client alkaline water electrolysis orders as a share of the sales, which have now initially a lower gross margin than those of the chlor-alkali business traditionally. So we expect also that the gross profits will an average go down.
And then one on working capital, where we saw an increase in the third quarter, especially on the inventory side. Do you expect further substantial increases here over the upcoming quarters. And then do you have a number in mind in terms of what level of inventories you need over the next few quarters to be able to execute your project.
Indeed, we have guided also that we expect that the net working capital will move over time into a slight positive territory. And this is what we have seen here now as an initial step in quarter 3, we think that it will also continue for a while, that it is reflected also in the inventories. We cannot give you a precise number here. It's not only inventories. It's also the balance sheet of the down payments received and processing accordingly. We have here always a mix of various status on the execution of the projects, which are connected also to certain net working capital. But overall, net working capital will increase as we have guided.
And then very last one on your project pipeline and the actively pursued projects. I noticed that the average project size slightly declined. Is that a function of H2 Green Steel not being part of that anymore, or are there other effects involved as well?
Now that the major effect is indeed that, of course, now H2 Green Steel is not part of that pipeline anymore. It's a fully executed contract and as that certainly moved out of that representation. And that's certainly the major effect. Yes, you're right.
At the moment, there are no further questions. [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions. So I'd like to hand back to the speakers.
I think we have one question.
Yes. Now there's just one question coming up, coming from [ Jon Shengta ], Societe Generale.
We cannot hear you.
Apologies. Hopefully, you can hear me.
We can hear you.
Few questions I would like to ask. Yes, hopefully, you can hear me. The first question will be regarding OxyChem. The order you started to recognize through your order intake in the third quarter. Are you able to say, over time, how much further contribution from this contract with OxyChem will be basically reflected through orders going forward?
No. I think that the order intake that we have reflected here for OxyChem is the full order intake. So it's the full order already right now. So for that's different to H2 Green Steel, where we said we're just reflecting here a very minor portion right now. And waiting for further framing conditions actually to be fulfilled before we can further reflect additional order intake for OxyChem, that's the full amount that has been already reflected here in the third quarter.
That's very clear. I would like to ask 2 more questions, if you don't mind. The first one will be on CapEx. In the third quarter, the CapEx has remained relatively low as we have seen year-to-date. Given your guidance or a significant increase in CapEx over the midterm, are you able to provide a bit more color about the ramp-up? And if we should expect a higher figure in the fourth quarter of the year?
Yes. And indeed, we have a slow ramp-up here for the CapEx. We expect also in Q4 very limited CapEx, but significantly more in the next fiscal year.
Arno. And the last question will be in relation to guarantees, that basically are issued to the company's customers. It used to be done by thyssenkrupp. As you all know, basically following this IPO, an independent company. Should we expect going forward, basically a cash consumption from these guarantees on cash flow? And if so, is there a catch-up payment that is expected or let's say, cash catch-up, cash outflow that could be expected in the fourth quarter of this year?
Well, regarding the guarantees, let's answer step by step. Indeed, in former times, thyssenkrupp provided those guarantees with their lines. Since the IPO, we have become our own lines effective. So now thyssenkrupp nucera has own guarantee lines with various banks, which should cover all the needs according to our business plan. We don't expect cash out from the guarantees. That would happen only in a case in which guarantee is practically exercised by a customer, and we do not expect such cases. So the guarantees actually are not means for cash out. But on the contrary, we expect advanced payments for our -- from our customers, which we have then to cover for them with these guarantees. So it's a security for the customers for the cash in that they will provide to us.
There is one follow-up question coming from Michael Kuhn.
One on, let's say, market views, as you have just launched the Indian subsidiary. Maybe a few words on your view on that market and probably also what you've seen very recently in terms of market news and major developments because obviously the sector is still very new flow heavy and sometimes relatively difficult to stay on top of the development.
Okay. I will try to answer that, Michael. So certainly, on the development in India, we do see India, I would say, in the midterm also emerging into a very attractive market for green hydrogen. You've just seen recent developments also driven by the government to push very much on that front, and that certainly will be something that we are currently closely monitoring and tracking.
And having our own legal entity actually in our own site in India is certainly, they are very helpful, and it's certainly also the intention why we have built up that site. I don't forget as well that actually the -- we are not a new actually to the Indian market. We are present through the thyssenkrupp group since many, many years in India already. And we have also established there already a quite significant nucleus, if you want, on electrolyzer expertise that we are now consolidating actually under our own company and our own legal entity. And that will certainly serve the nucleus to further growth also in terms of engineering capacities where you potentially know as well that India is a very interesting and attractive place where you can get very well-educated engineers on board, and it's certainly something that we are looking for as well to execute on our global work share projects as well.
In terms of the general developments, indeed, and that is certainly also reflected in our project pipeline, and we still see a very dynamic development in the market. As mentioned, the U.S. plays more and more an important role here as well when it comes to a regional perspective of growth. That is why we have decided to initially focus now on Europe and the U.S. to use our workforce, our resources as effectively as possible. However, we see also growth, of course, in other regions of the world, and that will continue and certainly over time. So in the next years, step-by-step, we will also include further regions actually into our growth focus, and we'll enter those markets full force.
The next question comes from Kevin Roger, Kepler Cheuvreux.
Just one question on my side. You confirm the midterm guidance for Q4 this year, you are saying that you will be a bit negative due to higher operating costs and that those costs will continue to be seen next year. So for next year, would you say that at the group level, you will be able to be EBIT breakeven or you still expect to be EBIT negative margin for next year, please?
Well, we haven't guided on the EBIT of the next fiscal year. We are preparing that and we'll release that at the fiscal year-end, together with the financial report, and then we will provide guidance also for the fiscal year '23, '24. And therefore, I cannot be so precise at the moment, except for the general statements that we have made already that we expect a dip in the EBIT and that we that will increase significantly the ramp-up cost for the alkaline water electrolysis business, which is connected with the expenses. And of course, that will have an impact here on the EBIT.
At this point, there are no further questions. And I'd like to hand back to Werner Ponikwar.
Well, thank you very much. And ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your time and your questions today. Maybe we will see each other at one of the investor conferences in September that you see here on Page 20 as well. And in case you still have some open questions, of course, please reach out to Investor Relations.
With that, let me conclude today's earnings call. Thank you very much. Goodbye, and all the best to you.