thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co KgaA

XETRA:NCH2

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Hendrik Finger, executive]

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our Q2 6M earnings call. Thanks for dialing in and for your interest in thyssenkrupp nucera. With me today are our CEO, Werner Ponikwar; and our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt. They will guide you through today's presentation.

Now before we start, let me briefly address the usual formalities. Firstly, this call is being recorded. A replay will be made available on our website later today. Secondly, don't forget that today's presentation and potentially some answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. For additional information in this regard, please refer to disclaimer.

And with that, let me hand over to our CEO, Werner Ponikwar.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Thank you, Hendrik, and good morning, everyone, and thank you all for joining us today. I'm really excited to update you on our latest developments and guide you through the highlights of the second quarter of our financial year '23, '24. Let me start with a few general observations. The growth momentum in the market for green hydrogen remains strong even if challenges like uncertainties on regulation, funding rules, high interest rates or recurring inflation remain and continue to cause delays in project FIDs.

Although this temporary situation led to phasing effects on our order intake and consequently, in our revenue recognition, I can confidently say that our business model has proven to be robust and continues to enable us to take advantage of the opportunities that arise. The figures on the right-hand side clearly demonstrate that we are progressing well. Driven by an almost 60% increase in AWA sales, our total sales reached EUR 168 million in the second quarter. The combined order backlog of EUR 1.2 billion for chlor-alkali and alkaline water electrolysis remains on a very high level, and we expect it to grow significantly in the next months. This development is underpinned by a further contract signing in April for our European AWE project and the full notice to proceed from H2 Green Steel, which we have received just recently. With that, we remain confident to see even more significant order intake in the second half of our current financial year.

Moreover, project execution remains fully on plan which means that our modules and sales are fabricated and delivered in line with the schedules we have agreed upon with our customers. Although I'll come to that in a second in more detail. I would like to highlight here our 20-megawatt project, the CF Industries in Louisiana, in the U.S. The commission commissioning activities for that plant are nearing completion now. And it could well be that the first green hydrogen with a full 20-megawatt module is being produced over summer already. We have also achieved further milestones in our [indiscernible] in the second quarter. The announced strategic partnership with the Fraunhofer IKTS, in the field of high-temperature electrolysis will enable us to further expand our technology portfolio and thus enhance our offering and our access to new markets and applications.

Moreover, our geographical expansion in the gas is well underway and will be supported by a USD 50 million grant for a joint project with our long-standing supplier De Nora to implement mass production of alkaline water electrolysis cells and the establishment of an automated cell assembly line in the U.S.

Finally, two points on our guidance. Firstly, we have confirmed our group guidance for EBIT and sales while we have narrowed down the original quite wide interval for sales. Secondly, we have adjusted our expectations for the AWE sales in the financial year '23, '24 and also '24, '25 due to the mentioned phasing effects and incoming orders. We will explain this in more detail later.

Let me now walk you through a few more details on our project pipeline and our operations. As already mentioned, we continue to receive important orders for large scale electrolysis plans from our customers. Most importantly, we have signed a contract for more than 100-megawatt AWE plant in April. A european company from a [indiscernible] industry has opted for our highly efficient standardized 20-megawatt water electrolysis module scale for the decarbonization of its production. Please understand that we are not yet able to disclose the name of the company. Order intake for that project will be recognized after the final investment decision on the client side, which we expect in the next few months. At that point in time, we will also be able then to tell you more about the customer and, of course, of the location of the project.

From a revenue recognition perspective, we expect the majority of the sales from this order to be recognized in the next financial year, '24, '25. The two projects I would like to mention aren't that far advanced just yet, but they are also very promising. The Spanish energy company, CEPSA, asked us to provide a phase engineering and design package for a new 300-megawatt green hydrogen plant. CEPSA selection of [ Tyson sera ] as the preferred supplier represents an important step for the development of the CEPSA Andalusian Green Hydrogen Valley in Southern Spain, one of the largest projects of its kind in Europe. In the long run, CEPSA plans to develop here 2 gigawatts of green hydrogen capacity in this area by 2030.

Another example comes from Australia, where we are -- we see more and more activities towards developing a significant green hydrogen market. ABEL Energy, thyssenkrupp nucera is the preferred supplier for a 260-megawatt project, which is aiming at green methanol production. As you can see, we at thyssenkrupp nucera continued to systematically exploit the growth opportunities the market for green hydrogen is offering. We are convinced that the market will continue to grow dynamically in the mid- to long term.

Next is our project pipeline on Page 7, a chart you are already familiar with. In line with the examples I've just shown to you, we continue to see strong demand for large-scale green hydrogen electrolyzer fueling our product pipeline. Despite short-term delays, many of the 34 projects we are actively pursuing as of May, are getting closer to FID. Some of these projects, we have certainly expected to decide to be decided sooner, but we remain very confident that we will see a fair share of further project wins over the next quarters. At the same time, we see a global search in new promising green hydrogen projects being announced, especially in the Americas, Europe, India and Africa. We relentlessly work on our organizational ramp-up and the implementation of our growth strategy in order to deliver against this pipeline and to leverage the opportunities this is presenting as well.

On Slide 8, we want to provide you with an update on some of our ongoing projects. Regarding NEOM in Saudi Arabia, we are well underway. The delivery of further modules is ongoing and in line with customer schedule. The erection of the first modules has already started, and our modular concept has proven to reduce risk and cost on the construction side and enables fast assembly. We are also pleased to see that the overall construction site is making good progress. As far as the green ammonia electrolysis project of CF Industries in Louisiana is concerned, I shared earlier that commissioning activities for the 20-megawatt electrolyzer are nearing completion. So it is our most advanced project at this point in time, and we are thrilled to witness the start of hydrogen production probably this summer.

From H2 Green Steel, we have received now the full notice to proceed just a couple of days ago. This enables us to book the remaining order intake of a bit more than EUR 200 million which will be reflected in our Q3 figures. Let me also briefly comment on the status of the Unigel project because we have received questions about the project and the situation of our customers just recently. First of all, module and cell production for that project was finalized in the first months of '24. We have already received payments for that project and have recognized revenues in line with the progress of the project.

Secondly, for the time being, it is indeed unclear if and when we will deliver these 3 electrolyzer modules to the construction side of [ UVG ]. The equipment is currently in stretch, and we are coordinating the next steps with the customer.

Thirdly, the remaining payments are secured by a nonrevocable letter of credit of a reputable bank, so there is limited to no financial risk on our side at the moment. To sum it up, our project execution is on plan, and we are excited for the next months to come.

Besides flawlessly executing our existing AWE backlog, we also strive to maintain a leading knowledge position in the future electrolysis market. In this context, I am pleased to talk about our recently announced partnership with the Fraunhofer IKTS, in the field of SOEC technology on Slide 9. High-temperature electrolysis holds an incredible potential for existing and new applications, which is perfectly in line with our growth strategy and complements our existing technology portfolio. The SOEC technology is still immature, but promising methods for large-scale hydrogen production. The high operating temperatures of SOEC allow for very high efficiency in comparison to other current electrolysis technologies.

The Research Institute, IKTS is at the forefront of research and development in the highly innovative field of SOEC and has already carried out the initial preparatory work to commercialize the technology. We invest now in the further development and industrialization of the SOEC technology and have also acquired a license for the exclusive use of the technology going forward. As early as the first quarter of 2025, a pilot plant is scheduled to start operation for the mass production of high-temperature electrolysis cells and stacks in Italy, of course, in small quantities only. However, the experience gained from the pilot plant will enable full industrialization of the SOEC technology based on continuous research and development activities.

In the mid to long term, we aim at offering our customers an extremely powerful technology for industrial scale in addition to or in combination with our AWE technology to further contribute to a climate friendly mix. We will continue to update you regularly on the partnership and respective developments.

As part of our growth plans, we are making good progress in ramping up our resources and capacities in the U.S. We are, therefore, very pleased to have been selected for a USD 50 million grant by the U.S. Department of Energy as part of the bipartisan infrastructure law funding of clean hydrogen and electrolysis manufacturing. As part of the funding program, we will work with our long-standing partner, De Nora to develop automated AWE manufacturing lines [indiscernible] scale for customers in the United States. Transitioning cell manufacturing into automotive light mass production that can serve multiple gigawatt projects per year will be the key factor to best position our business in the U.S.

Currently, we are in final talks with the DOE on the funding rules and are finalizing the process of selecting the ideal site for this project to be closed for customers use the strong U.S. job market and integrate ourselves as part of the local community. We are grateful for the trust of the DOE and the strong support that underscores once again the critical role our technology will play in achieving the goals of the energy transit.

And now before we go into the quarterly figures in detail, a lighter but very pleasing topic. We were nominated in 2 categories of the prestigious World Hydrogen Awards 2024 in which we were presented -- which were presented last [indiscernible]. First, together with our partner, Shell, in the category Clean Hydrogen Project, and secondly, also for our 20-megawatt AWE electrolyzer module scale in the category, Hydrogen Industrial Applications. And Shell's Hydrogen Holland I project in the Port of Rotterdam, which is supplied with thyssenkrupp nucera electrolyzer modules was indeed awarded to Clean Hydrogen Project of the year. This is a great success on which we congratulate the project team. And at the same time, we are delighted to contribute to such a great project with our technology.

With that, I will hand over now to our CFO, Arno Pfannschmidt, to provide you with an update on our financials.

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Thank you very much, Werner. A warm welcome also from my side. I'm pleased to present you the financial performance of thyssenkrupp nucera for the second quarter and first half year of this fiscal year and share some key highlights with you.

Ladies and gentlemen, our company delivered solid results in the second quarter. Order intake declined year-on-year, mainly due to lower [indiscernible] intake in alkaline water electrolysis reflecting usual volatility in the project business. Group sales grew by 11% in the second quarter compared to the previous year, thanks to a strongly growing AWE business, which was up 59% year-on-year. NEOM continues to be the key top line driver here. In EBIT, we recorded a year-on-year decline of EUR 13 million to minus EUR 11 million, driven by the expected lower gross margin and planned higher OpEx.

Let me also reiterate once more our strong cash position. At the end of the second quarter, net financial assets stood at EUR 740 million. With that, our growth strategy is fully funded.

On Page 14, we have a more detailed look on order intake. In the second quarter, order intake declined to EUR 75 million, 42% below the corresponding prior year figure. Order intake in the chlor-alkali business increased to EUR 64 million which was driven largely by service orders in segment Germany and new build business in segment China. In contrast, order intake for AWE was below previous year, reflecting some usual volatility in the project business. In this context, it is important to know that the remaining order intake from H2 Green Steel was booked in May and will be visible in our Q3 figures. So in Q3, we will see a significant year-on-year increase in AWE order intake with slightly more than EUR 200 million just from H2GS.

Accumulated over the first 6 months of the current fiscal year, order intake reached EUR 251 million, EUR 121 million were attributable to the AWE business and mainly include the EUR 100 million tranche from H2 Green Steel, which was recognized in the first quarter. In the chlor-alkali business, order intake came in on prior year's level at EUR 130 million especially driven by projects in China and Brazil. The order backlog at the end of March 2024, stood at around EUR 1.2 billion with alkaline water electrolysis business contributing around EUR 0.8 billion.

Now diving into our sales development on Page 15. In the second quarter, sales increased by 11% to EUR 168 million. AWE sales increased significantly by [ 9% ] to EUR 95 million. This increase is mainly due to the ongoing implementation of our projects in Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Sweden. In contrast, chlor-alkali sales declined to EUR 73 million. Sales from new build business improved slightly but were overcompensated by an expected decline in the service business against previous year's high level.

In the first 6 months of '23, '24, group sales increased by 23% to EUR 376 million. Again, the increase in sales is driven by our strongly growing AWE business, which was up 69% year-on-year due to the ongoing implementation of the [indiscernible] project in Saudi Arabia. The Unigel project in Brazil and the H2 Green Steel in Sweden also contributed to the positive sales trend in the half year period. Revenue recognition for the Shell project in the Netherlands decreased against previous year given the already achieved high percentage of completion. Overall, I'm pleased with the ongoing dynamic sales development, which is expected to further accelerate in the second half of the current fiscal year.

Now let's take a moment to look back and to reflect on thyssenkrupp nucera's development in the field of green hydrogen. In a nutshell, it is an amazing growth story, and it is continuing. As communicated before, there can always be some volatility among the quarters due to the applied revenue recognition logic, which is percentage of completion. And you can see that on this chart, the bars are not increasing linear. But what is also displayed on that slide is the rolling LTM or last 12 months sales trend over the last years. And that shows perfectly how rapid and how steadily we are growing our sales in the AWE business.

With the most recent quarter, the last 12 months sales figure stands at EUR 411 million. And if we compare that with 12 months ago, where the figure was only EUR 163 million, we see that sales more than doubled in just 1 year. Also looking forward, our sales growth trajectory is very promising. We have a significant backlog and huge market potential, which offer tremendous growth opportunities.

Moving on to the EBIT development on Page 17. In the second quarter, EBIT declined by EUR 13 million to minus EUR 11 million. The decline was as expected, mainly driven by the lower gross margin in percentage terms due to both volume and mix effects, meaning a higher sales share of the NEOM project, which comes with a lower gross margin and a lower share of service business in chlor-alkali. We have also seen additional other cost of sales for the planned and ongoing AWE ramp-up and capacity increase. In addition, we saw a strong increase in G&A and selling expenses driven by the planned ramp-up of the organization. We also had higher R&D expenses related to cell and module development in the AWE business. We expect ramp-up costs to further accelerate in the second half of this financial year.

EBIT in the first 6 months of 2024 was minus EUR 11 million and thereby EUR 25 million lower than the corresponding figure for the previous year. This development is in line with our full year EBIT guidance for which we expect a further decline in the second half of the fiscal year.

Let's now take a quick look at the performance of the geographical segments. In the second quarter, and similar to the development on group level, the sales increase in segment Germany was mainly driven by progress in the execution of the NEOM project. Also similar to the development on group level, EBIT and segment Germany declined strongly due to the planned ramp-up costs as well as volume and mix effects in the gross margin.

In segment Italy, the main driver for the strong sales performance was the AWE business. But chlor-alkali sales were also up compared to prior year for the 6 months period. EBIT rose as a result of the higher revenue. Sales declined in the other segments, Japan, China and Rest of the World due to lower sales in [indiscernible].

Moving on to the outlook for financial year '23, '24 on Page 19. Based on our first half year performance, we confirm for the group the outlook for EBIT and specify the outlook for group sales. In line with the previously communicated mid-double-digit percentage range compared to previous year, we now expect group sales to come in between EUR 820 million and EUR 900 million. The execution of already contractually agreed AWE projects will be the major driver here. Nevertheless, we updated our AWE sales ambition as part of the overall sales target for the group, but I will come to that in a minute on the next slide. For group EBIT, we continue to expect a negative figure in the mid-double-digit [indiscernible] range. As I said before, we expect ramp-up costs to further accelerate in the second half of this financial year.

On Slide 20, you will see our updated AWE ambition. We expect a continuous strong sales growth, which is driven by the execution of our existing order backlog. However, with the existing order backlog alone, we will not reach the sales ranges we outlined -- we outlined in 2022 for the first time and which we confirmed during our IPO process last year. Delays in project FIDs and order intake leads to later-than-expected revenue recognition for some of the projects we are working on. And therefore, we need to adjust our sales ambition for the AWE business for this financial year and for the next one. We now expect EUR 500 million to EUR 550 million in the current financial year and EUR 700 million to EUR 800 million in financial year '24, '25.

About 2/3 of the range for '24, '25 is already secured by our order backlog and by signed orders. The midpoints of these ranges equal a 60% increase against previous year's base for current financial year and 130% increase over 2 years in '24, '25. This is undoubtedly a very strong increase, but initially we thought that we could grow even faster.

Lastly, on EBIT for the AWE business, we are more optimistic. From today's perspective, based on enhanced cost control, it seems possible to get close to breakeven in the next financial year, despite the lower sales volume we are expecting now. Let me explain why we are updating our AWE outlook now. Almost 2 years ago, when the ambition was published and even just a couple of months ago, we expected sooner project FIDs. Now mainly due to regulatory uncertainties, this has taken a bit longer. Additionally, the conversion of the existing capacity reservations has fallen behind initially agreed schedule.

Also, the remaining more than EUR 200 million of order intake from H2 Green Steel were booked just recently. And that combined leads to a later-than-expected start or ramp-up of revenue recognition for a couple of projects. For the long-term perspective of the company, nothing has really changed. We are very confident regarding the green hydrogen sector, and we still expect significant order intake in the second half of 2024. But the knock-on effect of up to now delayed order intake leads to lower revenue recognition and reduced gross margin contribution in the next quarters. We are reacting to that situation with a strict focus on active cost control and high efficiency in the development of our organization and the expansion of our supply chain. Overall, we are convinced that we can come close to breakeven in the fiscal year 2024, '25, despite slower sales growth in the short term.

With that, I hand back to Werner, who will summarize today's earnings call.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Arno. Now wrapping up today's earnings call, I would like to reiterate some of our key messages. We delivered a solid financial performance in the second quarter. Sales grew dynamically thanks to our AWE business. The EBIT development was in line with our expectations. Our project execution efforts are in full swing and on plan. And I'm proud to say that our Modular Electrolyzer Concept is a success and highly appreciated by our customers.

Our commercial momentum remains strong we have signed a contract for more than 100-megawatt AWE project. This clearly demonstrates the trust our customers have placed in us and the value we bring to the table. At the same time, we want to position ourselves even better for the electrolysis market of the future. The partnership with Fraunhofer IKTS, enables us to strengthen our technology portfolio. And with the DOE funding, we aim to further expand our footprint in North America, hydrogen market and support the global transition towards a cleaner, more resilient energy infrastructure.

Overall, I am confident that our strong performance, strategic growth efforts and partnerships as well as our relentless focus on project execution will continue to drive our success in the quarter to come. Thank you for your attention, and we now look forward to receiving your questions.

[Operator]

So the first question is coming from James Carmichael from Berenberg.

[James Carmichael, analyst]

Just a couple, I guess, just on the guidance for FY '25, just interested in when you sort of need to get those orders in to sort of fill the 1/3 of revenue that isn't covered by current backlog. And then, I guess, what sort of level of confidence you have in the regulatory conditions improving over the next, say, 6, 9 months to help support project FIDs and obviously get those orders coming?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Well, thanks for the question. Maybe I'll start with the regulatory improvement and what we expect. I mean, we have no crystal ball, of course. But we see actually that there is certainly a movement in particular in the U.S. where actually the final ruling on the 45 [indiscernible] , which is the important section actually of the [ IRE ], which is currently obviously also delaying decisions of our customers. We hear that actually it is expected that in June, July, actually, those rulings will be firmed out. And we would also expect along those lines that after we have clear rulings in the U.S. actually that projects will move ahead quickly, in particular, for customers who are more industrial investors. And that would be particularly also hold true for our reservation agreement in the U.S. that we would then expect to be converted [indiscernible] into a contract.

Maybe for the first question in terms of the guidance. Arno, might take that.

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Yes. I think we have mentioned here for the sales guidance, '24, '25 that this is based 2/3 on order backlog and signed contracts, and the other 1/3 is expected to be based on new order intakes. As Werner just mentioned, we are confident that the certainty in the U.S. would come rather soon in the next few months and that this would then lead also to these order intakes, which then would cover the remaining third. So still in this fiscal year, a portion, but also at the beginning of the next fiscal year.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

[indiscernible] fiscal year. That is for this fiscal year?

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Yes, I think the focus was here on '25 and '24 is mainly based on backlog, of course.

[Operator]

Yes. And the next question is coming from Alexander Jones from BofA.

[Alexander Jones, analyst]

Two questions, please. Just first as a follow-up or clarification on the '25 guidance, the 2/3 coverage. Does that include the capacity reservation agreements or since they're not yet signed orders that they're in this sort of other 1/3 that makes up the rest.

And then the second question, you talked about efficiency measures to help profitability next year. Could you give us a little bit more detail on those and how you balance that against the need to continue investing for the sort of long-term growth that you continue to see being very strong?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Sure. Thank you, Alex, for your questions. First of all, for the '24, '25 guidance and how much actually the reservation agreements are playing a role here. Yes, there certainly do like a role here. Even if we expect actually that these reservation agreements will be signed for this year, still actually, then, of course, in terms of revenue recognition, you will see the effect actually in next year in terms of our revenues in the years to come.

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Maybe to specify that. So the 2/3 is based on backlog and signed contracts. And signed contracts doesn't mean purely reservation agreements. It's signed contract. Yes, so the reservation agreements would come on top of that, actually, and if they would behind this year still, then, of course, actually, they will have an effect on additional effect on the 2/3 actually contributing to our guided sales volumes.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

And for the second question, maybe you want to start with that, Arno, in terms of our cost measures.

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Yes, certainly. I mean you see that EBIT at the moment is very much impacted by this front-loaded capacity buildup cost. And if we now see here slower top line, it means that also we have to adjust the speed of capacity ramp up accordingly. Capacity ramp-up is connected with cost and that means here both the speed up of the organization as well as the speed up of the supply chain and the capacity buildup will be adjusted accordingly, according to the top line development, that will save cost, and this is what we mean here with higher efficiency. So we are looking here, of course, on profitability of those investments, so to say, on the cost. And we see here definitely options to contain also the cost development.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Maybe to add on that, I mean, still, it will remain front loaded, clearly, and it needs to be -- otherwise, actually, it will be very difficult to cope with the growth that we still expect to come. But as Arno was explaining, we're now seeing a slower sales development, actually, this gives us the opportunity also to adapt actually our ramping speed on the organizational supply chain side. And this is actually the major effect that is counteracting to the lower gross margin contribution and the lower cost absorption there.

[Operator]

And the next question is calling from Martin Wilkie from Citi.

[Martin Wilkie, analyst]

It's Martin from Citi. I had a question on your pipeline. You've shown the usual chart about how the pipeline is progressing, and it has increased again or for the period to me, given obviously your comments about there is some uncertainty in the years about customers, waiting for final guidance on tax [indiscernible] and so forth. It seems that the customer is still in the medium term, increasing their expectations in that pipeline increase.

If you just talk a little bit about that, how you're seeing the pipeline continue to expand, even though in the short run, there's still obviously a little couple of bumps in the road.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Yes, Martin, thank you for the question. That's definitely what we see and what is reflected here in our pipeline as well, that the market continue to further develop and announce projects in the field of green hydrogen. And that's seen in particular in the U.S. but also in Europe, but in the meantime, also more and more in India and also in parts of Africa. That's a development, which is, of course, very encouraging and promising and this is still based actually on the drivers that are still intact, which definitely actually is driving the green hydrogen development also over the last 1 or 2 years. Which also shows that actually the world is still believing that this is required actually to build a strong green hydrogen network globally. As a intrinsic piece of a clean and Net Zero energy system.

However, as you were saying, there are a few bumps on the road now short term that we -- it's out of our control, if you want, actually, that we simply have to deal with. But as also explained, we believe that the uncertainty around the rules and regulations actually that we see in particular in [indiscernible] but also in Europe, let's not forget that also here in terms of the regulatory framework, even though on the European level, actually, that is -- in the meantime, I would say, quite well established actually pushing that down on the individual country level that obviously still takes a while and imposes new uncertainties in some of the countries where those regulations are not implemented right now. And it certainly faces difficulties actually for project developers -- developers here.

At the same time, and I think that is also why we believe also in these increases that we see in the market, we see, of course, also encouraging development when it comes to real funding being awarded, right? I mean, in the U.S., you see that actually there are significant funds being made available and being granted already, and we are one of the beneficiaries for that as well as mentioned. But also, if you look at the European market, and the hydrogen bank, I mean, they have just announced, I think it was 7 projects. that will receive funding in Europe. And let's not forget that on top of that, just over the last couple of months, there have been billions, billions of funding being granted to the steel industry in Germany, for example, with [ Sesen Crop ] Steel, but also with [ ArcelorMittal ] and [ Salzgitter ] to convert actually the blast furnaces to DRI systems. And of course, I mean, these funds are now granted. There are also rules and time lines behind it. So there is a very clear drive also in really converting and also building up and producing green hydrogen to feed those systems.

So these are, for us, very encouraging signs in the market that also we see reflected in our substantial pipeline, which is still growing and which is actually something which we believe is very encouraging.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from Mike Kuhn from Deutsche Bank.

[Michael Kuhn, analyst]

Yes. A few mostly follow-ups. Firstly, on the pipeline, looking at the actively pursued projects one less compared with February and the overall size was said to be more than EUR 9 billion previously, now more than EUR 8 billion. Is that one big project having dropped out or rather project sizes right size? So some comments here would be helpful.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Yes, Michael, thank you for the question. That's indeed several projects, actually. So we had some movements here in our actively project pipeline also based on the fact that there are, that we see actually delays in project development and FIDs in the market. This is not a single project that is moved out of the actively project pipeline, that's a combination of several projects that we have either moved out or came newly into the pipeline, really based on the likelihood that these projects will move ahead now quickly.

[Michael Kuhn, analyst]

Okay. And so the average project size has come down somewhat due to those mix changes and projects moving in and out?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Yes, but not very significantly. If you look at actually the EBIT project size is still in the same ballpark of 550 megawatts.

[Michael Kuhn, analyst]

All right. Then one on Unigel that you already commented on. Good to have, let's say, the financial safety here, but I think, ideally, the project would be realized. Is there still, let's say, realistic chances that this will be realized? Or would you rather expect those modules to be, let's say, rediverted into other projects?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

I think that's the question. This is very difficult to answer at this point in time. That's certainly very much depending actually on the development and integrations actually on our customer side, which is certainly not in our control and also not something that we know in very much detail. So difficult to say. We are actually prepared for every action, if you want. I mean, certainly, as you were saying, we are in a very good situation actually financially wise. So it's not going to have an impact on our P&L or our balance sheet in any case.

We certainly will, in any case, also support our customers here in whatever is required actually to get those 3 modules up and running. This it would go the other way around, actually. And we would have to look for a new outlet for these modules. We also would believe that is something that we would be trying to support as well and our customers.

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Maybe to add here, we have a clear contractual situation, which is protecting here our situation. And that's practically the limits we are, of course, willing to help our customer in that situation. But that doesn't necessarily mean that we kind of draw back the contract, we have here very strong securities. And in that sense, we have also red lines, so to say, regarding such a support.

[Michael Kuhn, analyst]

All right. Understood, very clear. And then one more on let's say, the U.S. situation and the finalization of the tax credits. You mentioned June, July as a potential time line and especially the reservation agreement that you have to be turned into a contract pretty quickly [indiscernible]. Could that with the June, July time line then still happen in your current financial year? So let's say if it's early July, it would be in the same quarter. Or would that be realistically fast? And would that rather be something for the upcoming financial year?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

It still would be likely if the rules are released now early, let's say, June, July, why is it still likely actually to be converted in this year because we are very far advanced in our negotiations on the contract for this particular project. And it's really a question then of, if you want weeks, after those finalized actually when we would be ready to convert. But again, it's very much depending actually on our clients and how they want to play that out.

I mean you have heard also maybe in the market just recently that big companies also like [ Air ] Products basically have announced during their earnings call that they will not sign any deals before the ruling are finalized.

So it's -- we cannot twist the arms of course. I mean we can only do our homework and drive those negotiations as far as possible, and that's what we are doing and what we have done and then we certainly have to wait actually for our customers being ready to sign.

[Michael Kuhn, analyst]

Understood. And then very last one on the preferred supplier contracts, namely CEPSA and ABEL. Looking at the time lines and planning for those projects, realistically, when can we expect those to be turned into and to firm contacts based on FIDs?

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

So for ABEL Energy, we would not expect that to contribute significantly actually for the next fiscal year. For CEPSA, as mentioned, we have here, we just signed a contract for a basic design and engineering, which typically takes up to 12 months. So in such basically, we would understand that actually after that 12 months that will roll into a full EP contract for us as well. And with that basically also the contribution for next year will be at all then quite limited.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from [ Jon Cheriton ] from Bernstein.

[Unknown Analyst]

I would like to ask two questions. One maybe for Arno and it's related to the guidance. So we have a bit more granularity for this year and next year in terms of sales and EBIT expectation. Unable as well to provide an update on the other items of the guidance. And for example, I'm trying to understand what will be level of gross margin, consistent with your expectation to be close to breakeven next year?

The second question will be in relation to the European [indiscernible] that you just referred to earlier during this presentation. So you have seen the outcome and some of the data points released by the European Commission, what are the main takeaways from the perspective of the European headquarters electrolyzer OEM?

[Arno Pfannschmidt, executive]

Maybe I'll start here with the first question on the guidance. And indeed, we guide here on sales and EBIT and not particularly on gross margin, but we have used the gross margin development of the NEOM project to explain a little bit the EBIT development, particularly in this fiscal year, the share of the NEOM project as a percentage of the AWE sales is pretty high, and it has a very low gross margin, whereas in the next fiscal year, the share of NEOM is being reduced and the new projects which we signed later are becoming more and more important.

So that means that AWE gross margin as a percentage will increase definitely next year. And here, we are pretty much in line with our original expectations. The main thing is here the volume effect from the related order intakes that they don't come with the sales volumes and the corresponding higher gross margins compared to the NEOM project.

So yes, the gross margin for AWE will become better and will help us to reach then the close to EBIT breakeven situation, which we expect for '24, '25.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

So it definitely also shows actually that our business model, in particular in the AWE business, is already scaling, right? I mean, otherwise, it would be very difficult to achieve that as well. But of course, actually, we also need to counter act a little bit actually to remain close to the expected breakeven level.

Maybe quickly actually to the European Hydrogen Bank and your question around that. I think we see here I would say, a very effective instruments being put in place with the European Hydrogen Bank. I mean if you look at actually the first round of auction, it turned out actually that I believe that the projects that received now the fundings, actually, they are in the right spot. And you also see -- looks like in terms of the price funding actually that comes along with that. We are seeing here encouraging signs the prices are not such high as potentially initially expected. And also with that, actually, the support that is required actually is not so overwhelmingly high.

However, I believe that actually going forward, there needs to be more of that funding. I mean the second round has been announced already. I believe, with a way larger fund to be granted finally, that's certainly the right thing to do. I would believe that in terms of the rules to prioritize those projects actually, there is room for improvement. I do believe that you're just looking at cost, this might not be the best option here. I think all the debt is understood in the [indiscernible] by the Urban Commission and we will potentially also see here a couple of changes on the rules as well.

In general, this is -- this will certainly also drive the market. And as such, I believe that's a very encouraging development.

[Operator]

Mr. Dr. Hendrik Finger, there are no further questions.

[Hendrik Finger, executive]

Okay. Well, if that's the case, then thank you very much for attending our call today. It was again a pleasure to discuss with you. Yes, if you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact Investor Relations. And with that, thank you again. Have a nice day, and talk to you soon. Thank you very much.

[Werner Ponikwar, executive]

Thank you very much. Bye-bye.