Merck KGaA

XETRA:MRK

Earnings Call Analysis

Merck Reports Strong Q3 with Growth Across All Sectors and Confident Outlook

In Q3 2024, Merck achieved a 4% organic sales growth, highlighted by a remarkable 17% rise in EBITDA. The Life Science segment returned to growth with a 2% increase, while Healthcare led with a 6% boost driven by strong oncology sales. The Electronics sector grew 2%, spearheaded by semiconductor solutions at 7%. Merck confirmed its 2024 sales guidance at EUR 20.7 to 22.1 billion and EBITDA of EUR 5.8 to 6.4 billion, aiming for sales towards the lower end and EBITDA around the midpoint. Confidence in continued profitable growth into 2025 is underscored by positive market developments.

Strong Finish in Q3 2024

In the third quarter of 2024, Merck reported an impressive 4% organic sales growth across all sectors, showcasing an increase in group-level performance. EBITDA pre rose by 17%, reflecting the company's ability to generate profits despite various headwinds, notably from currency fluctuations. Merck's reported sales for the quarter reached EUR 5.266 billion, and EPS pre climbed to EUR 2.30, marking an 11% increase year-on-year.

Sector Breakdown and Performance

Three business sectors contributed to Merck's robust sales performance. Healthcare led the way with 6% organic growth driven by its innovative oncology and Neurology & Immunology (N&I) franchises. This growth was supported heavily by strong sales from the Erbitux portfolio. Life Science, making a return to organic growth for the first time since last year, posted a 2% increase in sales. Meanwhile, the Electronics sector achieved 2% organic sales growth, primarily due to continued expansions in semiconductor solutions, which benefited from AI and advanced technologies.

Geographical Insights

Merck's diverse geographical performance was notable. Europe was the standout region, boasting a 6% organic sales growth, with strong contributions from both Healthcare and Life Science sectors. Asia Pacific also performed well, with a 3% growth driven by Electronics. However, North America remained slightly down, affecting overall sales figures. Emerging markets showed significant potential, with the Middle East and Africa achieving a remarkable 14% growth.

Guidance for 2024 and Beyond

Merck confirmed its guidance for full-year 2024, expecting sales in the range of EUR 20.7 billion to EUR 22.1 billion and EBITDA pre between EUR 5.8 billion to EUR 6.4 billion. The company anticipates growth towards the lower end of the sales corridor and the midpoint for EBITDA pre. Looking ahead to 2025, Merck expressed confidence in maintaining its growth trajectory and expects a more normalized year for its Process Solutions business.

Impact of Recent Acquisitions

The recent acquisition of Unity-SC was a strategic move aimed at enhancing Merck's capabilities in the optoelectronics and semiconductor fields. This acquisition is expected to bolster future product development. Despite the long-term prospects, attention to short-term integration and market adaptation will be critical.

Cash Flow and Financial Health

Merck reported robust operating cash flow of EUR 1.458 billion, up 16.2% year-on-year. Increased cash reserves, alongside slight increases in financial debt due to the acquisition, indicate solid financial health. The equity ratio improved from 55% to 57%, reflecting positive earnings and a strong balance sheet.

Market Challenges and Outlook

While Merck demonstrated strong performance across sectors, challenges remain. The Pharma market, particularly in the North American region, is facing cautious spending and competitive pressures. Merck's management remains optimistic, planning for gradual improvement in order intake within its Process Solutions market as destocking trends recede.

Conclusion: A Promising Yet Cautious Future

Overall, Merck delivered a strong quarter backed by diverse performance across its sectors. The company is confident in driving growth, particularly in Healthcare and Life Science, while also navigating through challenges in the electronic and pharmaceutical landscapes. Investors should watch for the execution of guidance targets into 2024 and beyond, along with continued monitoring of market conditions.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Dear, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Merck Investor and Analyst Conference Call on Third Quarter 2024. [Operator Instructions] I am now handing over to Constantin Fest, Head of Investor Relations, who will lead you through the conference. Please go ahead, sir.

[Constantin Fest, executive]

Thank you very much, Heidi. A very warm welcome to this Merck Q3 2024 Results Call. My name is Constantin Fest. I'm Head of Investor Relations here at Merck.

Today, I'm delighted to be joined by Belen Garijo, Group CEO; as well as Helene von Roeder, Group CFO. For the Q&A part of this call, Matthias called in sick and Sebastian Arana, Head of Process Solutions was in Germany and could join on short notice. We're delighted to have him with us covering Process Solutions questions. Science and Lab Solutions and Life Science Services will be covered by Belen and Helene. Also joining for the Q&A of this call, we have Peter Guenter, CEO of Healthcare; as well as Kai Beckmann, CEO of Electronics. We would now like to guide you through the key slides of this presentation. And after that, we'll be happy to take all of your questions.

And with this, over to you, Belen.

[Belén Garijo López, executive]

Thank you very much, Constantin, and welcome, everybody, from my side to our Q3 earnings call. Please go to Slide #5 on the deck, where I will be starting with the highlights.

As you saw, we had a strong Q3 in which we further accelerated organic growth to 4% at the group level. And I am delighted to say that we also generated strong profitable growth in the third quarter, supported by all 3 sectors. Life Science delivered organic growth for the first time since Q1 last year.

Healthcare continues to show strong performance across the whole portfolio and the semi market for AI and advanced nodes continues to perform very well, driving semiconductor solution sales and supporting Electronics in achieving organic growth in the quarter.

Back to the group, sales increased by 4% organically, while EBITDA pre achieved an outstanding organic growth of 17% in Q3. Life Science delivered 2% organic sales growth in the quarter. And this is a great achievement in a very highly demanding market environment which, however, is steadily improving.

And as I have said multiple times already, while we no longer distinguish the impact of COVID-related sales, it still represents a headwind in 2024. Healthcare was the best-performing sector in Q3, with 6% organic sales growth driven by our innovative franchises. That means oncology and N&I as well as by our CM&E portfolio.

Electronics showed organic sales growth of 2%, mostly driven by semiconductor solutions, which now showed year-on-year growth for the third quarter in a row at 7% organically. Now on reported sales, we reached EUR 5.266 billion, which is an increase of 2% as currency was a 2 percentage point headwind.

Reported EBITDA pre of EUR 1.618 billion was strongly up at 12%, including a 5 percentage point headwind from currency. On EPS pre, we delivered EUR 2.30 in the quarter, which is a robust increase of 11%. Therefore, we are happy to confirm our absolute sales and earnings target corridors for 2024, which, as you may remember, we raised with our Q2 results, and I will come back with more assumptions on the guidance later on.

Now moving into Slide #6. We have a bit more color on the performance by business sector. All our business sectors contributed to the 4% organic growth of the group in Q3. In Life Science, Process Solutions returned to organic sales growth, while delivering sequential sales growth in a gradually improving market environment. The sequential increase and the year-on-year growth of our order intake now for 3 quarters in a row raises confidence about the further evolution of our Process Solutions business.

Book-to-bill was solid again, staying at around 1. SLS, Science & Lab Solutions, achieved organic sales growth in what is still a cautious spending environment for pharma research. Turning to Healthcare. Oncology was supported by strong Erbitux sales and all across regions and indications while Bavencio has slowed on the back of increasing competition in the U.S. market.

Our N&I franchise got the benefit from Mavenclad in Q3 as the product confirmed its record sales performance from Q2 in Q3, now against easier comparables. Electronics showed slight organic sales growth driven by our semi material business, which grew in the double-digit percentages due to AI-driven demand growth and growth in mature nodes in the Asian markets in particular.

Regarding earnings, EBITDA pre came in at EUR 1.618 billion would represent a strong increase of 12% or EUR 172 million. While all business sectors contributed, this was mainly due in the case of EBITDA pre, mainly due to Healthcare where we saw an EBITDA increase of EUR 151 million in the quarter, driven by robust sales performance and a temporarily lower R&D spending.

In Q3, Life Science and Electronics showed a positive EBITDA growth contribution to the group for the first time in 2024. Now let's move on to Slide #7 for a few remarks on our sales by region. Q3 once again demonstrated the advantages of our globally diversified business with the right mix of business sectors in the different regions supporting our growth trajectory.

In Q3, 2 of the 3 larger regions that is Asia Pacific and Europe were up organically, while North America was still slightly down. Europe grew the strongest and was up 6% organically, with strong growth in Healthcare across all franchises as well as process solutions, driving Life Science sales in the region.

Asia Pacific was up 3% organically in Q3, which was mainly driven by the strong growth of Electronics and further supported by Healthcare. North America was slightly down by 0.6% organically as the slight growth in Healthcare was offset by slightly lower sales in Life Science. Looking at the 2 smallest regions, Middle East and Africa was up 14%, while LatAm also grew strongly at 12%. Both regions were mainly boosted by Healthcare, while Life Science also showed strong growth in Latin America.

And with this, let me hand it over to Helene for a more detailed view of our financials.

[Helene von Roeder, executive]

Thank you very much, Belen, and welcome also from my side. I'm now on Slide 9 for an overview of our key figures in the third quarter. Taking into account currency headwinds of minus 2%, net sales increased by 1.8% to EUR 5.266 billion. With EBITDA pre growth and margin expansions in all businesses, we've achieved strongly leveraged growth. Healthcare was the main driver of this development.

EBITDA pre was up by 11.9% to EUR 1.618 billion even with a higher FX headwind on EBITDA pre of minus 5% compared with sales. EPS pre increased by 11.1% to EUR 2.30. Operating cash flow came in strong at EUR 1.458 billion, which represents an increase of 16.2% over the year-earlier period.

This exceeds the increase in EBITDA pre, mainly due to higher operative profitability and improvements in our net working capital. Net financial debt was slightly up compared with the end of December '23, which was mainly due to the acquisition of Mirus Bio, which closed on August 1. Let me also briefly comment on our reported results.

And with that, I'm now on Slide 10. EBIT was up by 11.6% year-on-year, in line with EBITDA pre. The financial result was slightly down from minus EUR 46 million in Q3 of last year to minus EUR 54 million this year. The effective tax rate came in at 22.2%, which is around the midpoint of our guidance range of 21% to 23% and actually in line with the effective tax rate from Q1 '24.

You may remember that the tax rate is showing an increase due to the expected pillar 2 expenses. And as a reminder, the effective tax rate in Q2 '24 was at the top end of the guidance range as it also reflected the termination of xevinapant program.

In the first 9 months of '24, the effective tax rate, therefore, came in at 22.4%, which is in the upper half of our tax guidance range. Reported EPS came in at EUR 1.86, which is an increase of 9.4% year-on-year. And with that, let's move on to the review by business sector, and we're starting with Life Science on Slide 11.

Overall, Life Science delivered on its goal to return to organic growth in the second half of the year and showed the first positive organic sales performance since Q1 '23. Sales increased by 2.1% organically in the quarter, and we still expect to stay on the growth path for the remainder of '24.

Process Solutions returned to organic growth in Q3 while Science and Lab Solutions has now achieved organic growth for the second quarter in a row. Life Science Services was down, but against a high base.

Looking at Process Solutions first. Sales were up by 3.7% organically, once again showing a positive sequential trend and increasing by 3% quarter-on-quarter. Order intake continues to improve sequentially as we had expected. I can confirm that we expect Process Solutions to deliver a sequential improvement in both order intake and sales for the remainder of '24.

At plus 4.3% in Q3, Science and Lab Solutions achieved organic sales growth for the second quarter in a row, again, driven by high demand from industrial and testing and diagnostics. Excluding the SAP migration effect, which impacted the business by a mid-double-digit euro million amount in Q3 last year, Science and Lab Solutions would have shown slight growth organically.

Demand from pharma companies that has remained soft, especially in North America. And as you heard me say at our Capital Markets Day, we are currently seeing a stronger focus on later-stage clinical development projects at our customers. And China remains muted.

Turning to Life Science Services. Sales were down by minus 17% organically. While sales of our clinical testing business has increased in the high single digits, sales of our CDMO activities were down. As a reminder, we benefited from an end of contract payment in a low to mid-double-digit euro million amount related to COVID in Q3 of last year.

Turning to margins. EBITDA pre increased by 7.1% organically in Q3, which is well above organic sales growth, with the EBITDA pre margin having improved by 120 basis points year-on-year and by 30 basis points sequentially.

For the remainder of 2024, let me say the following. First, we expect the recovery in Process Solutions to remain gradual. Second, the demand from pharma customers remain soft, which impacts Science and Lab Solutions. And finally, you might have noticed that the sequential step-ups in our EBITDA pre margin during 2024 have become smaller. The biggest positive margin driver would be volume growth, while at the same time, we expect the R&D to sales ratio to increase and start-up costs to grow as some CapEx projects come to completion.

I'm now on Slide 12 for an overview of the performance of the Healthcare business sector. Healthcare continues to deliver robust organic sales growth and was up 6.2% in Q3. By franchise, the 2 portfolios growing the strongest were oncology with plus 9% organic growth and CM&E with plus 8% organic growth. Our N&I franchise achieved organic growth of plus 7%. This was driven by strong Mavenclad performance of plus 20% organically against soft comps of last year.

Oncology was mainly driven by Erbitux, which showed a stellar performance of plus 14% organically in Q3 driven by growth in all major regions. Tepmetko was strongly up organically at plus 37%. Bavencio was slightly down in Q3 at minus 1% organic performance. Similar to Q2, all regions were up except North America, where increasing competitive pressures led to an organic decline.

Turning to our CM&E portfolio. This showed a strong performance against Q3 with plus 8% organic growth, which was supported by contributions across all regions and all segments especially from diabetes, cardiovascular and thyroids. Mavenclad confirmed the record sales levels from Q2 of this year with strong growth in demand from the United States as well as Europe.

Regarding the pipeline, as announced at the Capital Markets Day, in the cutaneous lupus part of a Phase II study of enpatoran, we have seen a positive proof of concept with clinically meaningful efficacy and a good safety profile. In oncology, we are excited about the data that came from the readout of pimicotinib Phase III study in TGCT run by our partner, Abbisko, which was announced a couple of days ago.

Coming to EBITDA pre, we achieved a record margin of 39.2% in the quarter. That is 600 basis points above Q3 last year. This was driven by the decline in R&D expenses, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of sales and by strong sales growth amidst strict cost control. We also experienced a shift of commercial spending from Q3 into Q4, which overall makes the EBITDA pre margin appear outstanding in Q3.

As a reminder, the Bavencio repatriation came into force in Q3 last year with its effect now being annualized for the first time. Overall, EBITDA pre amounted to EUR 836 million in Q3 and was up 27% organically. For modeling, in the absence of a major new R&D in-licensing deal, we expect the R&D to sales ratio to remain at this low level in Q4, while seeing a higher commercial spending in Q4 compared to Q3 in line with our typical season pattern.

So let's move on to Electronics on Slide 13. Electronics showed organic growth of plus 2.4% in Q3. The key driver here was Semiconductor Solutions, which was up 7% organically. Within Semiconductor Solutions, Semiconductor Materials showed a strong double-digit percentage organic growth in the quarter as AI-driven trends and growth in Asia-centric material nodes persisted. Our DS&S business was down.

In the last earnings call in Q2, we explained that an anticipated increase in demand for delivery equipment compensated for a decline in the project business. As a result, the DS&S business was flat in Q2. The anticipated decline in the project business was not compensated in Q3, which resulted in an overall decline of the DS&S business. Projects have been pushed out into at least 2025.

Semi Materials continued to deliver strong organic growth year-on-year and also grew sequentially as thin films and other materials for advanced nodes and AI continue to drive growth. However, a wider inflection of mainstream semiconductor end markets has not yet happened. Turning to Display Solutions. We saw an organic sales decline of 9% against high comps. This was mainly due to continuous price pressure and also declining volumes in Liquid Crystals in Q3.

You will have seen that we closed the acquisition of Unity-SC just 2 weeks ago. We will be consolidating the business into Display Solutions with the goal of developing and delivering new products in the area of optoelectronics with applications in semiconductors. To signify the expanded focus, Display Solutions will be renamed Optronics from the financial year 2025 onwards, starting with Q1 '25.

Looking at our EBITDA pre performance in the quarter. The EBITDA pre margin increased by 280 basis points to 25.5%. This reflects our operating leverage through higher volumes in semi materials as well as cost efficiencies also compared against the low base.

For the remainder of '24, the trends I mentioned earlier for our Semi Materials and DS&S business are set to continue. Further, Display Solutions usually benefits from Christmas ordering in Q3 with Q4 being quieter. Regarding EBITDA pre margins, we said we want to bring capacity expansions online such as our new plant in Taiwan that supports advanced nodes with thin films and other semiconductor materials.

This results in start-up costs in the low double-digit million euro amount, which were only partially booked for in Q3. And while we want to sustain a high level of R&D to benefit from the long-term secular growth of semiconductors, our R&D expenses have also remained stable in Q3.

So before handing back to Belen, let me also briefly comment on our balance sheet and cash flow statement. As you can see on Slide 14, our balance sheet increased by EUR 1.6 billion compared with the end of December of '23. Taking a closer look on the asset side. Cash and cash equivalents increased to EUR 3.2 billion from EUR 2 billion at the end of '23, driven by strong operating cash flow and proceeds from the issuance of a hybrid bond.

Inventories went down with receivables remaining stable. Property, plant and equipment increased as a result of our CapEx investments. Other assets increased, which is mainly due to the reclassification of Surface Solutions as an asset held for sale. And lastly, intangible assets decreased, reflecting the net effect of a number of items, including the impairment of xevinapant. On the liability side, financial debt increased by EUR 1.5 billion, which was -- this was partially offset by a decline in other liabilities, which were in turn affected by the dividend payments in Q2.

Pension provisions were down due to interest rate changes and payables decreased from EUR 3.4 billion to EUR 2.8 billion due to in-licensing deals signed in the prior period, which then resulted in payments this year. And net equity increased by EUR 1.6 billion, thanks to growth in profit after tax.

As a result, our equity ratio strengthened from 55% at the end of December '23 to 57% now. Now we will turn to cash flows on Slide 15. Operating cash flow came in strong again at EUR 1.458 billion and was up EUR 203 million compared with Q3 of last year. That is higher than the increase in profit after tax of EUR 72 million. This was mainly due to changes.

First, in other operating activities, which include last year's accounting treatment of the biosimilars divestment. Second, in other assets and liabilities which were in turn driven by lower bonus payouts and taxes in the quarter. And third, in working capital. Cash out for investing activities increased due primarily to higher investments of our excess liquidity in nonfinancial assets and the acquisition of Mirus Bio, which closed on August 1 and which slightly increased CapEx on property, plant and equipment.

Last but not least, the difference in financing cash flow can be explained mainly by the issuance of the hybrid bond in the nominal amount of EUR 800 million during the quarter. The proceeds from the issuance will be used to repay 2 hybrid bonds in the total nominal amount of EUR 1 billion in December.

And with that, let me hand back to Belen for the outlook.

[Belén Garijo López, executive]

Sorry, I don't know if I have been heard. Okay. I continue. So I will start in case this hasn't been heard by everybody because my microphone was off. So I was saying that as you have seen this morning, we confirm our 2024 target corridors for the group. That is that we continue to expect sales in a range of EUR 20.7 billion to EUR 22.1 billion. EBITDA pre in a range of EUR 5.8 billion to EUR 6.4 billion and EPS pre in a range of EUR 8.20 to EUR 9.30.

However, with 3 quarters of the year now behind us, we want to offer a more precise view and are happy to point you to the lower half of the sales corridor and around the midpoint of the earnings corridor. Organically, we expect sales towards the bottom end of the range and EBITDA pre around the midpoint.

Now before you ask about 2025, let me share confidence. Why is that? In addition to the known positive structural trends in Healthcare, we are confident on our ability to continuously benefit from the expected positive end market developments and trends in Life Science and Electronics and we are confident to keep Merck on the profitable growth trajectory that we have recovered in 2024.

Having said this, and as I mentioned repeatedly during our Capital Markets Day, we will provide further qualitative guidance during our full year Q4 earnings call in March. Now for some additional details by business sector.

Let's move on to Slide #18. As for the group, we leave the absolute sales and EBITDA pre guidance corridors unchanged for all the 3 sectors while giving you an indication of where we believe we are currently trending within. For Life Science, our best estimate to date is that we will end the year slightly above the respective lower ends of the absolute sales and earning corridors and around the respective bottom end of the organic growth corridors.

Keep in mind that organic sales growth turned positive in Q3 amid still somewhat soft market, and we expect positive organic growth to continue in Q4. For Healthcare, we expect sales slightly below the midpoint of both the absolute and organic growth ranges. EBITDA pre is forecasted in the upper half of the absolute range and around the top end organically. Key drivers include strongly leveraged growth paired with cost discipline and as mentioned already, temporarily lower R&D cost.

For Electronics, we currently see sales trending in the lower half of the absolute corridor and towards the bottom end organically. Remember that we raised our guidance for Electronics in Q2. EBITDA pre should come in slightly above the lower end of the absolute corridor and in the lower half of the organic growth corridor.

Allow me before I close to make one additional technical remark on Electronics related to Surface Solutions. While it's too early to guide on 2025, I want to remind everyone that things are progressing well, and we are on track to close the transaction in the second half of 2025. At jet, Surface Solutions is still part of Electronics and we are planning to still include a full 12 months of Surface Solutions in our 2025 guidance. Back to Q3 '24, and to conclude, please note that all our currency guidance ranges remain unchanged. For the group, let me summarize. Growth momentum is strong and allowing us to confirm our guidance bands for net sales, EBITDA pre and EPS pre. And Q3 is a good illustration of our ambition to return to profitable growth in 2024.

Now with this, we will be all happy to take your questions. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Sachin Jain from Bank of America.

[Sachin Jain, analyst]

Sachin Jain, Bank of America. Two questions, please. Firstly, on Life Science margins. Helene in your introductory commentary, you referenced slower sequential growth for Life Sci margins. Should we extrapolate that commentary into '25? 3Q margin improvement was 20 basis points sequentially, is that an indicator for '25 over '24. I ask the question as consensus has margins of about 200 basis points.

And then the second question is just trying to get a sense of the pushes and pulls for Electronics into next year. The commentary is clear that materials is doing very well with some pressure on memory and logged DS&S. So I'm just wondering if you'd be willing to comment directionally on '25 sales growth related to midterm. I know we have directional kind of Life Sci trending towards midterm. I wonder if there any comments for Electronics from your side.

[Helene von Roeder, executive]

So on margins for Life Science, overall, I would like to lead you to what we said at the capital markets and also our midterm guide, which is basically we're saying we used to have pre-COVID margins of 31%. We had in-COVID margins of like 38%, and we're expecting to go midterm back somewhere into that range. Now as I said, it's pretty clear that the more volume we have, the better our margins will become.

And I think overall, with Belen pointing towards us looking positively in the future, you can see that this operational leverage should be helping us. I hope that helps you in your model. As you know, we don't give '25 guidance.

[Kai Beckmann, executive]

Sachin, we have to take this one as a segue into your question on Electronics as well. We don't give '25 guidance yet. But if you just do the math on where we land in 2024, we see that with our guidance that we provided today, we will be then for Electronics core already at the lower end of the new midterm guidance that will give you an indication on how we maneuver going forward. And already at the very upper end of our old midterm guidance, we are kind of outgrowing our old midterm guidance already. How is that composed?

You have seen the continued strong performance of Semiconductor Materials. Now with fifth quarter in a row of sequential growth. And the last 2 quarters have been in the mid-teens already in the performance. And of course, in DS&S, we are comparing with extremely strong 2023 and 3 consecutive years of record performance this year is obviously a bit softer. But this gives you then kind of the math on how that whole thing is going forward.

The market itself will see a continuous gradual recovery. So step by step, we see markets coming back and, of course, driven this year clearly by advanced nodes and AI leading to performance I've just mentioned. So this is a systematic that you can put together in order to get an understanding how markets will develop going forward. Of course, guidance will only be provided 1 quarter from now.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jo Walton from UBS.

[Jo Walton, analyst]

Can I ask a bit about the pharma R&D just to think about the timeframe over which you will be going back from the lower end of the number what we saw in 3Q through to a range. Is it next year or is it the year after just to give us some sense of how quickly you will increase that reinvestment?

And in terms of Life Sciences, I wonder if you could tell us a little bit more just thinking about the book-to-bill at 1. Just some of your thoughts there, please.

[Peter Guenter, executive]

Jo, it's Peter speaking. To your question on R&D. So first of all, as mentioned already by Helene, for Q4, of course, we shouldn't expect any material change in R&D spend given the fact that we haven't done any major licensing deals in that quarter.

In 2025 and beyond, I think you have to look at 2 blocks, the internal blocks of all the products we have in the pipeline and what we know about them, and then, of course, the other, which is a more unknown block is future in-licensing, when does it come? How large will it be and how many products we are talking about?

What I can tell you about the internal R&D that we see a positive momentum, both in N&I and oncology in our internal pipeline. I'll remind you that, as mentioned also by Helene that we had the positive readout for enpatoran in the CLE cohorts, and we will read out the SLE cohorts early 2025. We have our cladribine Phase III study in MG where the recruitment is actually ramping up very nicely. In oncology, we're going ahead with our plans for DDR with, for example, the Tuvusertib combinations. And then also, we have a quite exciting pipeline in ADCs, where we just started the anti-GD2 and then the anti-CEACAM5, our front runner, is moving into Phase Ib earlier this year and is ongoing.

Everything obviously, that would be external innovation would be on top of these. So for your modeling, I would say account for 2025 to a gradual recovery of these numbers and more of a steady state beyond 2025. I hope that helps.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

For your second question here, Sebastian Arana, for Process Solutions. Yes, as you noticed, book-to-bill was again around 1, reflecting both the sequential increase in order intake and sales in Q3. But as we know and as we have shared before, we believe in the short term, a better leading indicator for now is order intake and the quality of the orders we're receiving.

I'm happy to report that we're seeing in both sides, sequential improvement, as we have said before, there's an H2-H1 dynamic where we're seeing sequential growth both in sales and order intake in H2 versus H1 but also, we are seeing a gradual improvement in order cycle time and order size coming back to recovered levels.

So all in all, we continue to feel cautiously optimistic about the recovery in the bioprocessing market.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Sophia Graeff from JPMorgan.

[Sophia Graeff Buhl Nielsen, analyst]

One on Life Science. How are you seeing the Process Solutions recovery vary by customer group, including pharma, CDMO, larger biotech and emerging biotech? And how do you expect this to develop going forward? And then just on Electronics. What are your latest thoughts on the shape of recovery for the remainder of the semiconductor market into 2025? Can we expect continued momentum in the AI and advanced nodes portion of the market given the strong growth we've seen this year?

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

Yes. Maybe I can start with the first question regarding Process Solutions. To create context, right, we confirm again H2 versus H1 gradual order intake and sales recovery. As we have said before, the CDMO space and customers have recovered faster than originators. Also, regional pharma accounts have recovered faster than originators.

And having said that originators order intake is sequentially now coming back to a positive order intake trend. Regarding emerging biotech, we don't have a big exposure there. So really a minor percentage of our sales are coming from this segment. So it's not impacting significantly our sales performance for next year. So all in all, the summary, I would say, all major customer segments are in a positive trend, positive trajectory with the order intake sequentially and year-over-year better.

[Kai Beckmann, executive]

So let me take the Electronics question. So given the experience of the last quarter, I'm getting more careful on predicting the exact quarters of recovery in the -- for the semiconductor market. But I think what's obvious is for AI and AI-related technologies. There are 2 drivers of growth in next year. One is additional capacity and node transitions of our main customers.

And second is the adoption of what is called AI at the edge, so AI compute on end devices. Those 2 drivers will, at the end, define how fast AI will be driving growth into next year. For the other areas like memory and analog, we will continue to see a gradual recovery. We don't exactly know at what quarter that will get steeper, but I think it will continue on the level that we have seen for the past quarters, at least, for the next couple of weeks or months.

And then we shall see some more drive in that growth according to the market analysts and according to our customers' reporting currently as well.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of James Quigley from Goldman Sachs.

[James Quigley, analyst]

I've got one on Process Solutions and one on pimicotinib. On the Process Solutions recovery, can you give us the reasons as to why we're seeing significant growth in Europe and slight declines in North America and rest of the world, and what this means in terms of the recovery going forward? Is it going to continue to be driven by Europe? At what point would the other 2 regions catch up, and some bioprocessing?

And on pimicotinib, we obviously saw the positive data earlier this week. So what are your initial thoughts on the data that we've seen so far and particularly with respect to the competitive dynamics? And how does this data influence your decision on the timing around the option exercise for global rights?

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

So I can start with your question around Process Solutions. Maybe I can start framing regarding order intake, our major leading indicator. We are seeing sequential improvement in order intake across all regions. So behind the EMEA, North America and APAC results, there's a positive year-over-year and sequential order intake improvement that gives us confidence that the growth is coming across all regions, right?

Regarding sales performance in Q3, effectively, as you said, EMEA was driving the growth for Process Solutions, reflecting that the recovery in our major customer segments in EMEA was a little bit earlier than the rest of the regions and -- but we see this normalizing in the next few quarters as order intake comes back to growth, and it's coming back to growth as we speak. So pretty confident of the growth projection for all regions across Process Solutions.

[Peter Guenter, executive]

Yes, James, it's Peter speaking. Regarding your question on pimicotinib. Obviously, we're very happy with the readout that we got very recently, primary endpoints, ORRs of 54% at week 25, which looks actually well differentiated, if you would look at cross-study comparisons. Moreover, every single secondary endpoint was met. It was met like, for example, stiffness, pain, range of motion, et cetera. And then last but not least, we saw actually a very low discontinuation for treatment-related adverse events. We think TGCT is a market with actually very high unmet medical needs, especially the diffuse forms of TGCT, which actually create for those patients very severe disabilities.

Treatment today is actually surgery, which actually where patients relapse very often. And there is actually no global systemic standard of care. In terms of competitive dynamics, well, let's say, the front runner, which is pexidartinib, has an FDA approval, but with a black box warning and with the REMS program has not made it through the EMA.

And then we have ensartinib. And then again, if you compare cross-study comparison, I would say that the ORRs of pimi seem to be higher. And also when you look at the in-vitro profile of the 2 products, you will see that pimicotinib has actually superior potency and selectivity. So again, very happy about that. Now in terms of your question, exercising the option, look, we just received the data 48 hours ago. The open-label extension is ongoing and we will decide on the option exercise in due course.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Pitman-King from Barclays.

[Charles Pitman, analyst]

Two on Life Sciences, if I may. Just firstly on Science and Lab Solutions. I was wondering if you could give us a few comments on how you see the funding environment evolving particularly given your comments around the stabilizing APAC region? And then for the U.S. following election, how impactful NIH funding could be for your outlook?

And then a question on Process Solutions. I know that we discussed the exit rate of Life Sciences going into FY '25 at the CMD. But I was wondering if you could just kind of give us more of an idea of how you feel orders will progress through to FY '25 as an exit rate. And specifically on your very appreciated guidance on 4Q, what has changed to provide you that visibility and have that confidence in providing that information today?

[Helene von Roeder, executive]

So on SLS, let's go through the 3 buckets. On Academia, indeed, NIH funding has been approved in March, but it has been slightly cautious. And what is important for us is it represents less than 10% of sales in SLS. If you then look at the U.S. pharma market, indeed, we have seen temporary weakness, and we attribute that to the fact that like basically, people are spending more money in the development part rather than the research part. That is good for Sebastian, but it's not as good for the SLS business.

And then indeed, China, we have seen really at the beginning of the year, the China market bottoming out -- sorry, my English. But what we haven't seen is the recovery that we have had projected into going forward. Now if you look at China, we can see that the market continues to remain muted.

And as you know, in our Capital Markets Day, we toned down our midterm guidance in Life Science as a result of China not expecting to be growing double digit going forward.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

If I can comment on your second question regarding order progression and 2025 confidence for Process Solutions. Well, as I said before, the sequential growth in order intake that we are seeing in H2 versus H1 across our portfolios, across our regions is really giving us confidence in 2025, right? We see 2025 more of a normal year for us in terms of growth for Process Solutions.

You also asked about our exit rates. Even though we are not guiding 2025, we don't see -- we don't give precise quarter view. Our growth in Q4 should be trending towards our midterm guidance. So again, we are feeling good with the order progression in 2025 as most of our customers have gone through the destocking period and is part of the past that we continuously confirm in our conversations face-to-face to customers and also during the multiple surveys we're doing throughout the year.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Thibault Boutherin from Morgan Stanley.

[Thibault Boutherin, analyst]

Just first question on Science and Lab Solutions. You were quite cautious at the CMD and flagged it as a reason for reaching the bottom of the guidance this year for Life Science. You -- even adjusting for the SAP impact in Q3 last year, there was still a slight growth in Q3 this year.

So can you just comment on was there any SAP impact in Q4 last year? And is this kind of slight growth in line with the comments you made on the biopharma R&D being weak. So is it a slight type of growth to expect in this environment?

Second question on the Life Science Services. You highlighted a large COVID-19 impact in Q3 last year and Q4 last year was quite strong as well. So is there anything specific we should keep in mind in terms of the comp base in Q4 for Life Science Services?

[Helene von Roeder, executive]

So on SLS, indeed, we had an SAP impact in Q4 also last year. And so we do have a relatively easy comp for Q4. I think what you need to know in SLS is something that when we look back, pre-COVID, we had seen pretty clear seasonality across Q3 and Q4 with the Q4, a rather stronger quarter and Q3, a rather weaker quarter.

So overall, we remain very confident in the business. We are seeing good growth in our Lab Water business, in our Biomonitoring business. And hence, we feel like we're well on track here. If we look at LSS, I think overall, nothing comps wise that we have to keep in mind. Now to be perfectly honest, as we've said many, many times, our CDMO business is rather a start-up business.

And because of the actual size of the start-up business, it could be that we have simple batches moving back and forth, and we have phasing element. So to me, as a CFO, and Matthias, I'm stepping in here for you. So changing side, I'm rather looking at the annual result of LSS rather than quarter-on-quarter progression.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Falko Friedrichs from Deutsche Bank.

[Falko Friedrichs, analyst]

Two questions, please, from me on Healthcare. Firstly, on Bavencio. I think this has been the first quarter where we saw a sales decline for this drug. So could you elaborate a little bit on the reasons for that? And also how we should think about growth next year? Is it plateauing now? Or is there still further growth potential with that drug?

Secondly, on Erbitux, very nice growth again. Maybe you could spend a minute on the drivers behind that? And also whether that is something we could expect to continue in 2025.

[Peter Guenter, executive]

Yes. Falko, thanks for your 2 questions. So first of all, let's remind ourselves that the U.S. part of Bavencio is around about 30%. We also flagged a bit of a pricing impact in Japan. And nevertheless, we have an overall stable result, and that is, of course, due to continued growth ex U.S. and ex Japan.

What we also said is that we see a maturing growth profile, obviously, given the competitive intensity of EV-302. And that I think the market is gradually, also in the U.S., by the way, understanding that EV-302 is not a one-stop solution for all patients and that it's really on an individualized patient profile that both options, so EV-302 and maintenance therapy with Bavencio remain actually first-line options. So thinking about next year, obviously, we won't see growth anymore next year, but I would reserve a more precise guidance for later during 2025.

On Erbitux, actually, we see that strong momentum continuing. And actually, there are a couple of reasons for that. I think the most structural fundamental reason is the fact that Erbitux is really a backbone therapy for many other let's say, options especially in the field of colorectal cancer.

So there's a lot of studies ongoing, even some with registrational intent of products that combine with Erbitux. And then the second element is the market expansion in China because of NRDL listing, both, by the way, in colorectal as head and neck cancer. So I hope that gives you a little bit of insight.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Dylan van Haaften from Stifel.

[Dylan van Haaften, analyst]

Excellent. Just 2 questions from my side. Firstly, just a clarification just on LSS. So if we take the testing business out and really look at CDMO business ex the COVID one-off, did you guys grow year-over-year?

And then my second question just would be on Process Solutions. So given that you guys are guiding towards another sequential order book growth, and overall growth was pretty good on a soft comp, but the fourth quarter comp is also pretty weak. Why -- are you guys a little bit more, let's say, cautious in affirming maybe a mid-single-digit exit of the year in Process Solutions?

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

Let me start with the second question regarding Process Solutions. Again, we see order intake sequentially improving H2 versus H1. We expect Q4 to continue that trend in order intake sequentially improving. And we see our -- as I said before, right, Q4 trending towards our midterm guidance.

What I think is important to mention here is we -- as we have said in the last couple of quarters, we see a gradual recovery in the order intake trends. It's not going to be a hockey stick or a deeper or a huge rapid order intake trend upwards. It's more a gradual recovery. That will lead us into this growth in -- exit growth in Q4 trending towards our midterm guidance.

We remain positive and confident in 2025 as we continue to see the market recovering back to bioprocessing. So -- and again, I would like to reinforce this with the latest survey we did in the market in Q3, where 70% of our customers are saying that the destocking is part of the past.

Still about 30% are navigating the final phase of the destocking in H2 of this year and early in 2025, again reflecting this gradual recovery, again, in a very positive trend towards 2025.

[Helene von Roeder, executive]

And so on CDMO, sorry, we had to do a bit of math here. And the answer is we're more or less flat. So if you look at the CDMO business, you then take the one-timer off, the rest of the underlying business has been behaving pretty flat.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Oliver Metzger from ODDO BHF.

[Oliver Metzger, analyst]

First one, just a clarification in Process Solutions. You made your comment about the Q4 sales sequential improvement. Is this commitment on absolute sales? Or do you see -- expect also sequential improvement of the organic growth rate?

Second one is on Electronics, DS&S. There are different cycles to my understanding. Last year, it was more about the infrastructure and now it's about equipping all the fabs. Can you comment about the underlying volatility and where do you see the current cycle now?

And the last one is on Healthcare, a comment on fertility. So last year, you had a strong tailwind from the competitor stock out, therefore, very tough comps. You still achieved, in my view, quite decent results. So can you just give a few -- say a few words about the underlying trends why still sales remains on this attractive level.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

Maybe I can start with Process Solutions. So building on my previous statements, the answer is yes. We are expecting both sequential improvement both in absolute values and in organic growth. So again, reflecting the positive trend we're seeing in order intake.

[Kai Beckmann, executive]

Yes. Oliver, on DS&S. So last year, we saw the so-called shell-first approach in many new construction projects. So -- and we had multiple projects at the same time. It is defining a bit kind of the starting point where we're coming from. This year, it's more equipping, like you said, equipping the fabs with additional equipment.

And of course, our service -- our third part of the DS&S business, our service business revenues continue to grow as volumes continue to grow. These are the 3 moving parts. The new factory, large projects, turnkey projects, second is equipment and services and equipment is now continuously deployed while the fab projects are a bit more put on a longer timeline.

[Peter Guenter, executive]

Yes. Oliver, on fertility, I think you're exactly right. Of course, we have difficult comps and we guided towards stable to slightly growing sales. That's exactly where we are actually. But of course, the underlying fundamentals remain very healthy in this business.

And actually, the main factor is, of course, couples waiting longer to achieve that dream of parenthood and therefore, infertility rates go up. And we see, indeed, a continued increase in cycles in the market. Of course, there are other elements that also support additional tailwind. For example, I was in Korea the other day, and you see that fertility rates are actually at a record low, 0.73 in this country.

And as a result, actually, the South Korean government declared infertility a national emergency. And I think that's absolutely warranted. And we see that then certain subsidies come into play to also make the whole procedure of infertility treatments, not only the drugs, but the whole procedure more affordable.

And therefore, you see also then a volume increase. So long story short, we remain confident in the mid-single-digit growth rate moving forward.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Rajesh Kumar from HSBC.

[Rajesh Kumar, analyst]

Just thinking through your 2025 expectations on Process Solutions, understandably, order books are sequentially improving, and you expect a gradual recovery coming to the 7% to 9% growth, I'm assuming towards the bottom end next year and then building from there. And then you clearly know more about the supply chain than we do.

What is it that you're seeing in either the inventory levels, order patterns that makes you so certain that the growth will be towards the bottom end of the range next year, especially given the soft comps and potentially the first year of recovery after 2 years of decline. Or is it a conservative stance here adopting until you know better by first quarter next year and then you would revisit this assumption.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

Well, thank you for your question on Process Solutions. Maybe let me start clarifying a few things. We did not say bottom end next year. We're saying we bridged towards our midterm guidance for 2025. But let me give you some color on the reasons why, right? Because that's, I think, is an important element here.

Number one, based on the data we have, we see majority of our customers have gone through the destocking process. So most of the destocking effect is over in the industry. That's number one. Number two, the order intake pattern is coming back to normal. Again, the sequential growth improvement is reflecting that across our portfolios, across our geography.

And the third element here is the quality of the orders is also improving. The size of the orders is back to normal. And the cycle time reduction -- the cycle time of the orders is also coming down, reflecting that lead times in the industry are back to normal and for sure in our case. So that's -- those are some of the market dynamics that we're seeing as we speak that give us confidence in 2025.

But again, 2025 will be more of a normal year for us in Process Solutions, trending towards our midterm guidance in terms of growth.

[Rajesh Kumar, analyst]

So just to be clear, you do not have a leading indicator that tells you what the Q4 growth would be. So you've made some assumptions there, right?

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

We have a pretty good view of Q4 based on the order intake we have for the quarter. That's how -- can you repeat, please?

[Rajesh Kumar, analyst]

Not this quarter, the next quarter, but Q4 in '25. I'm assuming your visibility is to quarter 1, quarter 2 next year, not beyond.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

We have pretty good visibility on the order book. Of course, Q4 2025 is way above lead times, right? So the closer the quarter, the more visibility we get, but based on the trends we are seeing in the market, and again, the destocking effect and some of the order patterns we were reflecting, we feel pretty confident that 2025 will be more of a normal year.

Having said that, it's also important to mention we don't comment quarter breakdown in 2025. At this time, it's more a total year view.

[Rajesh Kumar, analyst]

So it could be very well above the range if the recovery is stronger than you are factoring in.

[Sebastian Arana, executive]

We don't comment on that. I think we're sharing everything we're seeing now in a very, I would say, gradual recovery towards 2025, yes.

[Constantin Fest, executive]

I think we have time, Heidi, for one last question, please.

[Operator]

And your final question comes from the line of Simon Baker from Redburn Atlantic.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is [ Charlie ] speaking on behalf of Simon Baker. Just 2 questions. If you could just give an update on the partnership with Telix. That would be helpful. And the second one is, can you update on the time to stabilization in display beyond '25?

[Constantin Fest, executive]

Can you repeat the question, please? We didn't get it. Partnership with whom? Sorry.

[Unknown Analyst]

The partnership with Telix.

[Constantin Fest, executive]

Do you have additive context on the question, please?

[Unknown Analyst]

If you could just update on how you're managing, how you're progressing with that? That would be really helpful.

[Constantin Fest, executive]

This is the other Merck.

[Belén Garijo López, executive]

This is a question for MSD. Sorry to say, we have no partnership with Telix. Look, I mean, you caught us off guard on this topic. So we need to come back to you on this topic. We just announced, definitely, the fact that the Board is not yet on the topic. It's a very early supply-related partnership.

That is what we can guess because we are not able to give you an update. We will come back to you on this topic. It's very small, and it doesn't really have implications on the quarter and the future -- the short-term future.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. And then the second question is from the Electronics business. If you could update on the time to stabilization in display beyond '25?

[Kai Beckmann, executive]

Let's go for Display. So we said always in our strategy from 2025 onwards, we start growing again. We're a bit more ambitious at the Capital Market Day by saying 2025 is supposed to be the first year, of course, it is still within the original scope of Display. It doesn't include the recent acquisition of Unity.

We just closed the acquisition of Unity-SC, a company in heterogeneous integration metrology space, very interesting technology for driving the advanced integration schemes for artificial intelligence that is just being done. This is not yet included in the guidance. So -- and the moving parts are increased revenues for OLED as well as increased revenues for the Display patterning business, then compensating for the continuous decline of our liquid crystal business. That's what we call the stabilization of Display. We are well on track as per those commitments. And I think the development this year was exactly confirming what we have said at the Capital Market Day as well.

[Constantin Fest, executive]

Yes. This is, I think, all the time we have for Q&A. Thank you so much for all of your questions. And with this, I'd like to hand over to Belen for some closing words. Over to you, Belen.

[Belén Garijo López, executive]

Thank you, Constantin, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call. I would like to wrap it up with 3 main messages. One, we have delivered a super strong quarter with Life Science for the first time is back to organic growth with excellent prospects in Process Solutions and very well placed in the other 2 business units.

The other 2 business sectors are performing as planned. Message number two, based on all leading indicators that are available to us to date, as we have been discussing during the call, we have a strong confidence on deliver a very solid 2024. Point number three, and more important, we are also confident to keep our profitable growth trajectory in 2025.

And with this, more to come in our coming roadshows and conversations in coming days and looking forward to meeting many of you in those growth shows. Thank you so much for your interest in Merck, and goodbye.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.