Knaus Tabbert AG

XETRA:KTA

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome to today's earnings call of the Knaus Tabbert AG regarding the publication of the Q3 figures of 2024. I am delighted to welcome the Interim CEO and COO, Werner Vaterl; and Manuel Taverne from Investor Relations.

The gentlemen will speak in a moment and guide us through the presentation and the results. After the presentation, we will move on to a Q&A session, in which you will be allowed to place your questions directly to the management. We're looking forward to the results. And having said this, Mr. Taverne, please, the stage is yours.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Also from my side, Manuel Taverne speaking. And as already informed, we have to take a different set of how we'll present figures and also some -- give some background information about the current developments. With me today is Werner Vaterl, CEO and COO of the company; and myself. And today, I will present the figures. And before I start with the presentation, Werner will give you some flavor of the current situation.

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

Thank you, Emmanuel.

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining our Q3 earnings call. Most of you already know me as the CEO of Knaus Tabbert. But so far, we have only had direct interactions on very few occasions. I would, therefore, like to introduce myself to you briefly. My name is Werner Vaterl, and I am with Knaus Tabbert for over 30 years. As COO, I have been managing the operational business of our company since 2013, and as of last week, I took over the role of CEO.

For background on this change, our long-standing colleague, Wolfgang Speck, decided to leave Knaus Tabbert at short notice at the end of October for personal reasons. We have worked together very successfully, and I would like to thank him for the excellent cooperation over a long period.

Ladies and gentlemen, I really could tell you now in detail that we have grown strongly and steadily since our IPO four years ago, but you know it, where on top of a long-term strong tailwind for our industry, in the past couple of years, we have benefited from an exceptional market environment. And many people have already discovered camping holidays during this time, but you can see that.

I could also tell you now that camping is not a short-lived trend, but an established lifestyle, and that we are attracting more and more young people to this way of traveling, and you know it too. I could tell you how we serve almost all segments of the market, from entry-level models to first-class motorhomes, and that we are one of the market leaders with a very competitive offering, but you already know it too.

What do I want to tell you instead? I would like to share with you 2 essential objectives that are currently of paramount importance to Knaus Tabbert and, finally, to you. We strive to foster stability and create value. Before I explain my view of these 2 important cornerstones, I would like to ask Manuel Taverne to provide you with a more detailed view of the third quarter, respectively, for the first 9 months.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Werner.

Ladies and gentlemen, today, I will be presenting the economic development and the events underlying the figures in detail. Let me start with a look at the market situation. Even in a more difficult overall economic environment, interest in camping and holidays with a more -- and motorhome remains high, and with the interest of end customers in our products. This is also shown by the registration figures for the first 9 months of the current calendar year.

What gives us the confidence to continue? On the one hand, registrations, as shown on the slide, we are seeing an increase of 13% for motorhomes and 4% for camper vans. We are only seeing a slightly negative trend for caravans. Demand for leisure vehicles from all Knaus Tabbert's group brands has also remained solid and in line with our expectations in the 2024 financial year-to-date. Following the presentation of the '25 model year in mid-June, the order backlog is once again showing the expected momentum and remains constant at well over EUR 0.5 billion.

At the Caravans alone in Düsseldorf, which is an important indicator of the general sentiment for the season ahead, currently the model year 2025 season, we were also registering good sales from our dealers. In the premium segment, these were at the level of the previous year, 2023, around 1,000 units. In the luxury segment, the previous year's result was even exceeded by a good 60%. MORELO sold over 100 vehicles to the end customer at the trade fair.

Let us now move on to the revenue development in the first 9 months of 2024. With consolidated revenue of EUR 897.2 million, we are down significantly by 16.4% on the previous year. The decline in revenue also had a disproportionately high impact on adjusted EBITDA in the first 9 months of 2024, which totaled EUR 42.9 million. One of the main reasons for this development is that we temporarily reduced production volumes, partly due to the extended planned holidays in the third quarter. This resulted in additional costs, particularly related to the targeted marketing campaigns and various sales campaigns concerning the 2023 and 2024 model years. In addition, especially the insolvency of one of our dealers in Germany is reflected in the figures with a one-off burden on earnings of more than EUR 5 million in the third quarter.

As we already explained in our report on the first half of the year, the significant rise in interest rates of up to 8% after more than a decade of low interest rates is placing a strain on our more than 500 dealers and presenting them with immense challenges when it comes to financing their inventories. Stock levels in relation to volume are, in some cases, significantly higher this year than in the past, as dealers have adjusted to rising demand.

The stock value in euros has increased disproportionately due to the change in demand towards higher-priced motorhomes or camper vans. On average, around 30% of the annual expected sales are currently in dealer stock centers. More vehicles that are on the market for longer and have to be financed with higher interest rates cause considerable margin pressure and create cost pressure. As a result, our dealers are reducing their stocks and ordering more slowly.

Ladies and gentlemen, as we have received many questions about the sales campaigns in the forefront of this call, I would like to summarize, once again, what makes necessary to support dealers with targeted marketing campaigns is not, as it's often assumed, generally weaker demand. As I showed at the beginning of the presentation, the registration statistics continue to paint a positive picture. This is primarily due to the higher financing costs of dealers.

What do these campaigns look like? The Champions Deals, as we call this promotion in marketing, have been well received by dealers so far. They will continue until mid-December 2024 and, importantly, apply exclusively to existing vehicles from the 2023 and 2024 model years of the participating dealer. What price advantages are we currently offering for those model years are strictly limited to these model years.

Motorhomes and camper vans, the customer benefit is EUR 6,000 to EUR 8,000, depending on the chassis. Motorized edition models, the customer benefit is EUR 4,000. For caravans, the customer benefit is EUR 3,000. This promotion is also linked to a condition for participating dealers. If a vehicle for model year 2023 or 2024 is sold under the aforementioned conditions, a vehicle from the same category must be ordered as model year 2025. The current model year 2025 is sold consistently and without exceptions at normal conditions, without special discounts, and is not affected by this.

So far, this has reduced the utilization of dealer financing lines from 83% at the beginning of the year 2024 to 72% by the end of the third quarter. The total volume of the credit line currently available to finance dealers and their inventories is currently around EUR 500 million, compared to around EUR 460 million in the previous year as at September 30. The higher financing lines compared to the previous year is a further signal of the positive expectations of the market. Higher lines generally mean positive expectations.

I would like to briefly return to the guidance update on 21st of October and clarify that all the negative effects explained today have already been taken into account. However, it is not yet possible for us to provide a specific earnings figure, as we are still faced with significant uncertainties. This mainly relates to short-term and unforeseeable cost developments that could still affect the overall result by the time the annual financial statements are finalized.

Let us now turn to the balance sheet and cash flow. When reporting on the 2023 financial year, we already focused on optimizing the balance sheet for 2024. In the further course of the financial year, we aim to significantly release cash and cash equivalents by systematically reducing inventories of finished goods and work in progress. The reduction in inventories of raw materials and supplies by EUR 880.8 million to EUR 107.1 million is an encouraging initial success in which we have made progress. We achieved this primarily by renegotiating the contracts with the chassis suppliers.

Ladies and gentlemen, noncurrent assets totaled EUR 253.9 million in the first 9 months of 2024. This is only around EUR 1 million more than the balance sheet value of EUR 253.0 million as at December 31, 2023. This is mainly due to the fact that we had higher depreciation and amortization in this period and our investments fell noticeably compared to the previous year. Current liabilities increased by EUR [ 9,029.1 ] million to EUR 384.2 million as of September 30, 2024. Trade payables decreased in line with the level of raw materials and supplies. This is offset by a significant increase in current bank liabilities, which is attributable to an increase in working capital.

Knaus Tabbert generated an operating cash flow of minus EUR 0.7 million from operating activities in the first 9 months of 2024. This is EUR 12.5 million less than in the same period of the previous year. Cash flow from investing activities fell significantly in the first 9 months of 2024 and now stands at EUR 27.2 million. In the previous year, this figure was EUR 35.1 million. The majority of this is attributable to investments in the new production line in Schlüsselfeld, Germany. In addition, the rental, test, and [ priced ] vehicles were capitalized as property, plant, and equipment, which can be seen in the cash flow from investing activities at EUR 8.1 million. Overall, Knaus Tabbert thus generated a free cash flow of minus EUR 27.9 million.

As already announced, we concluded a syndicated loan for EUR 250 million in June 2024, together with our long-standing banking partners, Commerzbank, Nord/LB, and Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberösterreich. The conditions of the syndicated loan specify that certain financial ratios must be complied with. These are the ratio of net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization less than or equal to 2.75x and the equity ratio greater than or equal to 27.5%. As at 30 September '24, both the ratio of net debt to EBITDA and the equity ratio were not within the agreed target figures. We have, therefore, concluded a waiver agreement with the banks, and under this agreement, the banks waived the right of cancellation.

Ladies and gentlemen, despite all the current challenges that we have had to overcome in the last 9 months, and especially in the third quarter, it should not be overlooked that we have also pressed ahead with our strategic developments. I would like to briefly emphasize 2 topics in conclusion.

The expansion of our digital rental brand, RENT AND TRAVEL. Knaus Tabbert has recently expanded its rental offering to 2 other important European travel markets. Since October, motorhomes, camper vans, and caravans can be rented in the Netherlands and Austria via RENT AND TRAVEL. The digital rental brand, RENT AND TRAVEL, is thus continuing its expansion into other European countries, which began with Italy at the end of last year. Over 3,500 leisure vehicles from Knaus, Tabbert, Weinsberg, or T@B, brands can now be rented at over 200 stations in Germany, Austria, Italy, and the Netherlands. RENT AND TRAVEL has developed very successfully in recent years. Renting a motorhome or caravan is often the basis for purchase decisions. Around 40% of buyers have first tested this form of holiday with a rental vehicle. RENT AND TRAVEL, therefore, offers an excellent opportunity to appeal to new groups of buyers. Further countries are planned for the next year.

The second topic is XPERIAN. Under the name XPERIAN, we gave a preview of exciting and innovative products at the Caravan Salon that are set to define new standards in the industry. The brand will focus specifically on customers and their individual interests and needs. Anyone who would like to can already get a first impression of the journey on the brand website, www.xperian.de.

I would now like to hand over to Werner Vaterl once again.

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

Dear ladies and gentlemen, after a long period of steady growth, we are today presenting figures of the third quarter, which are admittedly disappointing. We have to accept at this point that our expectations from earlier this year and the reality are not in line. Ultimately, this led us to adjust our 2024 forecast for the second time this year on October 21.

We are currently confronted with a situation where a strong focus on the customer, on the one hand, as well as costs on the other hand, are essential. This challenging situation for some of our dealers is not caused by low or declining demand for this form of travel. It is still due to a negative impact on the financing of retailers' inventories. In some cases, there are also problems very specific to individual business decisions of these dealers. As a result, some dealers are focused on decreasing and keeping their stocks low, therefore a slowdown in ordering new vehicles during the winter months.

At the same time, we are supporting them with time-limited marketing initiatives to help them accelerating the sale for existing units. As a result of these 2 factors, we are expecting a negative impact on our results due to cost contributions for sales campaigns and negative impacts on production. In this context, it is important to note that these sales campaigns only apply to model years 2024 and 2023, and new vehicles from model year 2025 are being sold at list prices. As a result, this promotion is also technically limited in time. However, we currently assume this topic will be with us at least until the beginning of 2025 when the annual cycle of seasonally stronger sales starts.

The financing issue also affects the entire market, and it's not limited to Knaus Tabbert. This situation is changing the short-term dynamics of the entire market. Why is that? More vehicles have come onto the market from these channels in relatively short frame of time, and of course, they have to be sold off first. What is encouraging, however, is that our observations show that our main competitors are reacting in a similar way. This will allow the market to readjust faster and to return to healthier dynamics soon.

Ladies and gentlemen, in light of the specific situation described earlier, we are actively talking on these challenges. We are working on measures to decrease output and reduce costs. At the same time, we are committed to support our partners. More than ever, this currently challenging situation is also an opportunity to prove ourselves as a reliable partner to our dealers.

This brings me to our core task which we put even more emphasis on: fostering stability and creating value. In the coming months, we will focus on defining and implementing measures to consolidate. These measures will also be aimed at further enhancing the stability of Knaus Tabbert and making us even more resilient to external factors in the future. Consolidation and stability go hand-in-hand with profitability.

While the short-term impact of our support for the distribution channel results in decreasing profitability, it is also an impulse that we are using to start initiatives that will help us achieve our long-term profitability targets. In concrete terms, this means adjusting costs, improving efficiency and adjusting volume and production in the coming months. It is too early to talk about how the program will look in detail, but I can confirm that we are working on defining and implementing measures to achieve our goal, some of which have already started.

We will be able to provide you with detailed information on this latest in Q1 next year. It is important to me that you understand that we are keeping an eye on the current situation, and we are proactively steering the company towards the future. You can be assured that we on the management board, my colleague Gerd Adamietzki and myself, together with a wider executive team that has worked with us over the past years, have more than the necessary drive and experience to lead the company in the coming weeks and months.

I'm convinced that together, we will master the tasks and challenges ahead of us, that Knaus Tabbert will once again be able to create the value expected of us by all our stakeholders.

Thank you for your attention and for your trust.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Werner. Let's now start with the Q&A session. You've kindly sent us or me as I asked you some questions in advance, which we will answer first. Afterwards, you will also have a few minutes to ask open questions. Werner, please?

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

One of the questions you asked was, who is running for show and when will the CFO position be filled? I took over the CEO position after Wolfgang Speck left, and I am here to stay. At the moment, our Management Board consists of me and my colleague of CSO, Gerd Adamietzki.

You can be sure that we, together with a wider executive team that has worked with us over the past years, have more than the necessary drive and experience to lead the company in the coming weeks and months. We will fill the CFO position again in the short term. Our Supervisory Board started planning to bring in a CFO again already some months ago. The process is well advanced.

You asked what can be expected with the management change and when this will be communicated. At the moment, we are working on measures to reduce costs. With this, we aim to further enhance the stability of Knaus Tabbert and make us even more resilient to external factors in the future. Consolidation and stability go hand-in-hand with profitability. Our approach includes reducing costs, improving efficiency, adapting production and volumes, and support for our partners. However, it is too early to talk about details. We will inform you about the next steps, latest in Q1 2025.

One question was, what is your management vision? We have a clear vision to strengthen our position as one of the leading manufacturers of motorhomes, caravans, camper vans in Europe. As mentioned, we are working on further measures to foster stability and create value for Knaus Tabbert.

You also asked, do the major shareholders support the Management Board and your strategy for Knaus Tabbert? Yes, you can be sure that we rely on the full support of [ AVA ], our anchor shareholder, as well as the Supervisory Board, and we will lead Knaus Tabbert into a stable future.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Thank you, Werner.

Some questions and answers from my side. Another question was, are you going to adjust the guidance once again? We have updated our forecast for 2024 on October 21. And for 2024, we now expect sales of around EUR 1.3 billion. The adjusted EBITDA margin is expected, as already informed, to be significantly below the original forecast of 7% to 8%.

What are the reasons for the decline in sales? In the third quarter, our dealer network was carrying high inventory levels, which needed to be reduced before new stock could be delivered. As a result, we focused on facilitating the sale of existing stock with our network, leading to a temporary reduction in orders and a corresponding decrease in production volumes at Knaus Tabbert.

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

Thank you, Manuel.

One more question to me: What has happened to get back on a growth trajectory and how we want to restore investors' confidence after 2 profit warnings in recent months?

2025 will be a year to adapt to changing market dynamics. This means to adjust our production to normalized volumes. Midterm, we will return to a stable growth path, as we had in pre-corona years. As mentioned, we have already taken effective measures that will have a positive impact on our business results. This includes supporting our dealers to reduce inventories, adjusting costs, improving efficiency and adjusting volume and production in the coming months.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Can you help me understand the stagnation in the order book over the last few quarters? The order backlog amounted to EUR 577 million by the end of September 2024 and thus remained at a solid level. This still indicates that the measures to support the dealer have taken effect and lead to a normalized order level like seen in the times before corona. Why did you not specify any new margin range at the last revision? It isn't possible for us to provide a specific earnings figure as we are still faced with significant uncertainties. This mainly relates to short-term and unforeseeable cost developments that could still affect the overall result by the year-end.

Will you have achieved balance sheet optimization by year-end? Or could this continue into H1? The aim is to optimize the balance sheet already as of end of December or end of the year, but we expect that this will continue into H1.

What do you expect in terms of capital expenditures this year and in 2025? Investments in our capacity expansion have been completed and concluded. So there is no need for further investments here, which will result in a significant reduction in investments. Of course, the investments in the products remain.

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

The next question, you have added capacity to deliver growth. Does this need to be restructured? We have modernized our production in recent years and increased the level of automatization, which is also benefiting us in the current situation. There is currently no need for restructuring.

You asked, "What do you need to bring production back to normal levels?" To benefit from the opportunities that the caravan market continues to offer, we need to do our homework. In the coming weeks and months, we will, therefore, work on cost-saving measures and to reduce our leverage to make us even more resilient for external factors in the future.

Another question was, what is the status of the dealer inventory situation? The dealers are still challenged by the negative impact on the financing of their inventories. As a result, they intend to keep their stocks low. We are supporting them with marketing packages, which apply to model years 2024 and 2023. We expect that this will continue until the beginning of the 2025 financial year when the annual cycle of seasonally stronger sales starts.

Someone asked, what level of discounting we have been seeing? If we have single-digit margins with no discounts, but are now moving inventory with 15% discount, where does that leave us? As part of our discount campaigns with retailers, we provided targeted discounts each year of up to EUR 3,000 for caravans, up to EUR 6,000 for camper vans, and up to EUR 8,000 for motorhomes. These marketing packages apply to model years 2023 and 2024 and will run until 15 December. There is no such thing as a standard discount.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Werner. And I think these were the most important questions we received upfront. I will now give back to the host to also answer your questions in the call now.

[Operator]

Thank you very much for your presentation, the outlook and answering the questions sent to you before. We will now move on to the live Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] Please note, there already are a lot of hands up in line. Due to the time, we won't be able to take all your questions in this call. Manuel Taverne will be reachable for your questions afterwards as well. And I already noted who'll ask questions. And Frank, Frank [ Weisen ] you should be able to speak now. [ Peter ], please unmute yourself. Okay. I will move on to the person with the phone number ending 766. Martha Ford, you should be able to speak now.

[Martha Ford, analyst]

Can you hear me?

[Werner Vaterl, executive]

Yes.

[Operator]

Yes.

I just had a question on the guidance. So it now seems to imply 10% growth in Q4 to get to your revenue guidance. Does that not seem ambitious? Or do you see the EUR 1.3 billion as a sort of rounding target rather than...

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. Maybe I will answer the question. Maybe one is we have a revenue target, EUR 1.3 billion, and we are working to achieve the target for sure. And also as stated before, when we talk about EBITDA margin and earnings expectation, we see still uncertainty. So we cannot be more precise today. But we gave a revenue target, and we work on that. That's what I confirm today.

[Martha Ford, analyst]

Okay. And then on the dealer stock, you said it was 30% of the average annual sales in dealer stocks. What's the historical average level? Can you give any guidance?

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

This is a normal level, Martha. This is not a new level. This is a level what we were used to before the pandemic. And as also said in many calls, we are back to normal more or less, and this is a normal inventory level. But it's a higher level in units and it's a higher level in -- especially in value, and this is the challenge.

[Martha Ford, analyst]

Okay. And just quickly, are you planning to put the presentation on your website? I couldn't find it.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Yes. It will be on the website after the call.

[Operator]

And we have one more question in the chat box. "Where do you see production levels for next year?"

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Also an easy question. We are still in the planning phase. So please accept that we cannot give today a production number for next year. As Werner said, we only will adjust volume, and this is the plan.

[Operator]

And the next one is Ellis Acklin.

[Edward Acklin, analyst]

Two things from my side to start off with. You talked a little bit about the -- your rivals, your competition. I was just wondering, you also mentioned that you're only discounting -- you've been very vocal about only discounting the 2023 and 2024 models. Are you seeing any 2025 models being discounted in the market thus far? And what -- in your opinion from today's perspective, what is going to prevent that from becoming an issue next year? So that's one question. And then maybe if I could follow up on Martha's question regarding Q4, what would be the drivers behind the expected uptick in the top line to reach your adjusted revenue guidance?

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Sorry, can you repeat the second question? Sorry for that, but please.

[Edward Acklin, analyst]

Yes, no problem. So I mean -- so you've reduced your guidance for the top line to EUR 1.3 billion, which implies a pretty big Q4 number. I was just curious what the drivers behind the big uptick in revenue Q-on-Q.

[Manuel Taverne, executive]

Lower inventory levels. This is given -- one is the dealer situation. The second is you see our balance sheet, lower inventory levels. And also, maybe as your first question, we do not see -- and as well, part of my presentation before, we do not see the market discounting the current model year.

[Operator]

Thank you. And with an eye on the time, we have to stop today's earnings call at this point. Please feel invited to get in touch with Manuel Taverne to clear all further upcoming questions. He will be available for you the whole day. Thank you, everyone, for joining, your shown interest in Knaus Tabbert AG and this lively conversation. A big thank you also to Mr. Vaterl and Mr. Taverne for the dive into the third quarter and for the outlook. And I wish you all the best and a lovely remaining day. Bye-bye.