Knorr Bremse AG

XETRA:KBX

Earnings Call Transcript 2020-Q4

[Andreas Spitzauer, Head of Investor Relations]

My name is Andreas Spitzauer, and I'm Head of Investor Relations of Knorr-Bremse. I want to welcome you to Knorr-Bremse's webcast and conference call for the full year preliminary results for 2020. The webcast as well as the conference call will be recorded and are later available on our home page, www.knorr-bremse.com, in the Investor Relations section. Here, you can find today's presentation and later a transcript of the call. It is now my pleasure to hand over to Dr. Jan Michael Mrosik, our CEO; and Frank Markus Weber, our CFO. Please go ahead, Dr. Mrosik.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Thank you, Andreas. Before I start with the formal presentation today, I would first like to talk about a tragic incident that happened last week. With the deepest sadness, we had to inform you that Mr. Heinz Hermann Thiele passed away unexpectedly at the age of 79 surrounded by his family last week. He was one of the greatest industrial leaders in Germany, dedicating his entire life to the service of our company with tireless personal commitment. He always set highest standards for himself as well as for his employees. As a farsighted entrepreneur, Heinz Hermann Thiele had already placed the management of the company in the hands of external managers almost 15 years ago. A further step towards securing the future of Knorr-Bremse was the IPO in 2018. Mr. Thiele always combined entrepreneurial and personal success with social responsibility. We will continue Knorr-Bremse AG's successful growth path in the spirit of Mr. Thiele. Our deepest sympathy and sincere condolences go to his family. Dear ladies and gentlemen, let me continue now with the presentation. My name is Jan Mrosik, and I warmly welcome you to our conference call for our preliminary results of 2020. I highly appreciate you joining us today and hope that you and your families remain healthy and safe. This conference call is special for me as I'm speaking to you for the first time as the new CEO of Knorr-Bremse. Today's call is made up of 3 parts. First, I'd like to introduce myself and want to present the highlights of last year. Then my colleague, CFO, Frank Markus Weber, will present the details of last year's financial results, including the guidance for 2021. And finally, I would like to share with you my first impressions of Knorr-Bremse and the top priorities of the executive team. Afterwards, we look forward to your questions and comments. Before I start with the highlights of 2020, I would like to say a few words about our employees at Knorr-Bremse. The whole Executive Board is very proud of the strong engagement, motivation and execution by the team in the past challenging year. Everyone remains very focused and is highly committed to serve our customers and Knorr-Bremse as a company. We think that this is outstanding and worth mentioning. However, health and safety of our colleagues, our customers and business partners has been and will be our #1 priority at Knorr-Bremse and our guiding principle. So now let me introduce myself. I've been CEO of Knorr-Bremse AG since January 1, 2021. I'm 56 years old, and I've recently moved to Munich with my wife and our 2 children. I studied electrical engineering at RWTH Aachen and also got my PhD in the subject of electrical engineering. On top, I studied business administration to complete my university education. For more than 20 years, I've held various management positions at Siemens. Most recently, I was Chief Operating Officer in the Digital Industries division, which employs 76,000 people, generating an annual turnover of around EUR 16 billion. When I look back on my professional career, I can say that it was often characterized by managing complex and international businesses with a focus on digitalization. In the past, I've had a lot of contact already with customers of Knorr-Bremse. Electrification of rail networks, software management of energy networks for rail operators, automation of production lines for automotive and truck manufacturers and digitalization of product life cycle management, these valuable experiences -- these are valuable experiences that I now bring to Knorr-Bremse. Out of my perspective, Knorr-Bremse is a very exceptional, innovative and global company with a consistently successful track record and an amazing technology portfolio well positioned for the global megatrends. The whole management team has been a great support in helping me during my onboarding at Knorr-Bremse so far. As CEO and Chairman of the Executive Board, I'm looking forward to represent Knorr-Bremse towards our stakeholders, customers, employees, investors, press and the public in general. My key responsibilities inside Knorr-Bremse are strategy, HR, IT, audit, communications, digitalization as well as marketing. I have completed 8 weeks at Knorr-Bremse today and have been able to get a very good introduction into numerous exciting projects. I have found highly committed and very technology-oriented teams in various centers of competence where we manage our different technologies at Knorr-Bremse. Let me start with the group's full year highlights of 2020 on Chart 4. Allow me to walk you through the most interesting events and activities at group level. Corporate governance is a very important topic at Knorr-Bremse. Last year, we were able to make further improvements in this area and, for example, were able to gain some strong additions to our Supervisory Board. Dr. Weimer, CEO of Deutsche Börse, is one of the most reputable advocates of the capital market in Germany. He will support us in our cultural development as a listed company. As CEO of Airbus, Tom Enders, led one of the world's most global companies, and he brings extensive industrial experience to the table. Business expansion last year. In order to benefit from the global megatrends, e-mobility and autonomous driving, we have expanded our truck business by the acquisition of R.H. Sheppard in the United States last June. This was the next step in becoming a global supplier of commercial vehicle steering systems. In addition, we have paved the way to become a global system supplier of integrated steering and braking systems at the same time. This will be the basis for further driver assistance and highly automated driving systems following the acquisition of the Hitachi steering business in early 2019. Let me continue with Chart 5 and the highlights of our rail division in 2020. RVS won major international contracts in this year. Siemens, for example, awarded us a large contract for entrance systems of 94 underground trains in London. In April 2020, at the peak of the first pandemic wave, we received an order from the Russian train manufacturer Transmashholding in Egypt for brake systems with a volume in the mid-double-digit million euro range. Until year-end 2022, we will equip a total of around 1,300 passenger cars in this populous country. Knorr-Bremse also announced in April 2020 to supply Siemens Mobility with braking, entrance and HVAC systems, windscreen wipers and power electrics for 13 high-speed trains in Russia. The Velaro Russia trains require very high-quality components due to difficult weather conditions, which we are able to deliver. Together with the Israeli start-up Rail Vision, we will equip multiple shunting locomotives with a remote-controlled maneuvering system for obstacle detection. After successfully completing the prototype tests at the end of the first quarter of 2021, we are examining further business opportunities for integrating the systems into rail freight vehicles. This is a good example of the high focus of Knorr-Bremse in terms of innovation. As we have almost completed quarter 1 2021, let me say a few words about recent order wins. In January 2021, our rail division announced that it will equip 23 high-speed ECx trains of Talgo with brakes, door and HVAC systems which will be operated by Deutsche Bahn. Additionally, as announced today, Knorr-Bremse was able to secure a major order to equip more than 600 new subway cars for the Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe, BVG, in collaboration with Stadler Rail. We will deliver again, brakes, door and HVAC systems. In addition, our rail division will be responsible for spare parts supply and digital maintenance services for more than 32 years. Let me proceed to Chart 6 with the highlights of our commercial vehicle division in 2020. In November 2020, Knorr-Bremse and Schmitz Cargobull signed a multiyear supply agreement for trailer brake and chassis control solutions. This underlines our long-standing partnership in terms of future technologies as the order covers the next-generation trailer EBS and new universal trailer HMI. In order to meet the strong demand in China, the truck division expanded manufacturing capacities in China. We are market leader there. And by building a new plant, we continue the strategic cooperation on automated manual transmission, advanced driver assistance and highly automated driving with Dongfeng. With a new retrofittable turning assistants introduced, Knorr-Bremse aims to increase safety for all road users and reduce situations with a high risk of accidents. ProFleet Assist+ combines proven technology from Mobileye with Knorr-Bremse's know-how in the development of safety critical products for major OEM and aftermarket customers. I would also like to mention the expansion of our compressor product portfolio with regards to e-mobility. This vane compressor technology called Rotary Vane is scalable to variable e-truck air requirements. As a young listed company on the capital market, it is particularly important for Knorr-Bremse to continuously increase the confidence of our shareholders. Accordingly, it is important to keep promises. At the IPO, we highlighted 2 important cornerstones of our equity story or why investors should have confidence in our business model: growing faster than the respective markets and high resilience of profitability. We were able to prove both topics last year. Knorr-Bremse gained market share during crisis and reached a strong EBITDA margin of 18%. Last year, effective countermeasures were implemented to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. And these measures have fulfilled the expected goals, namely to safeguard the margins and the business development in both divisions. The high focus on cash and cash conversion rate has paid off as well. We achieved a free cash flow of EUR 729 million and a cash conversion rate of 137%. On Chart 8, I would like to give you an update on the impact of COVID-19 on both divisions. Knorr-Bremse is very closely monitoring the situation and is prepared to act quickly if necessary. Let me briefly summarize the situation. In the rail sector, our suppliers have completely recovered from the crisis, and we are not experiencing any shortage of components today. All plants of RVS are experiencing good capacity utilization, and they are performing well. Rail operators are currently running fewer trains on the tracks, which is having a negative impact on our service and spare parts business. But please let me emphasize on a few positive aspects that should not be forgotten here. Some rail operators reported train load factor of only 20%, but the number of trains on the tracks is still high, approximately 80% as the availability of mobility is an essential task of governments and cities. Trains that run on tracks or return to service after breaks must meet all regulatory obligations. Therefore, trains must be maintained regularly. Countries that have lower numbers of people newly infected with COVID again see a significant improvement in train utilization. Furthermore, we have signed an interesting framework agreement with Deutsche Bahn that addresses the opportunities related to condition-based maintenance and the use of data in the field of aftermarket. Last but not least, there are no cancellations of contracts, but postponements and shifts of tenders are ongoing. This is a clear signal for us that future demand of rail mobility is unchanged but still volatile at this moment. On the truck side, the market shows encouraging signs. Truck mileage has recovered, and truck demand is developing very strongly. In our own facilities, the COVID-19-related impacts are under control, and all plants of CVS are reporting quite good capacity utilization. The issue in the truck segment is rather on the supply side. We are currently concerned about the noticeable shortage of semiconductor products and tighter supply of other components, which is having a negative impact on truck manufacturers' production. At this point in time, we assume that these shortages will not lead to a reversal of the positive momentum in the industry, but growth rates should be definitely lower. Let me continue with an overview of the market's development on Chart 9. Overall, we see ongoing good market recovery both in the rail but even more so in the truck industry. Major rail markets in Europe and APAC have further recovered even though pre-COVID-19 levels in some subsegments have not yet been reached again. We have not faced any cancellations of projects, but many projects are still subject to shifts and postponements. This ongoing trend will also have an impact, for example, on order intake in the individual quarters in 2021 especially in quarter 1. Frank will go into more details later. The North American freight and transit markets are still heavily impacted, and projects are still subject to delays. Please keep in mind that RVS top line depends only 10% on the North American market. So what do we expect until year-end for our rail division? Market development in the OE segment should be generally positive and, in the AM segment, stable depending on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our positive assessment regarding the OE business is also reflected by our customers, the rail OEMs, which expect growing order intakes in the coming months. Overall, we expect the OE business of RVS to increase more strongly than the AM business in 2021. The key sales markets of our truck division in Europe and North America have recovered significantly from the lows and are still showing continuous improvements. The Chinese truck market remains a class of its own, with a very strong market development supported by good underlying demand and pull-in effects from 2021 into 2020. In 2021, this will lead to a pullback in market demand especially driven by the introduction of the new emission standard CN 6 in the second half and safety standards like electronic brake systems for trucks loading dangerous goods. Japan and India further recover on a good level. The main drivers for the aftermarket business will be the development of truck -- of mileage of trucks and the inventory situation of workshops. The development of the global truck production rate until year-end 2021 will depend heavily on how the shortage on the supply side will develop. In general, however, we expect a positive trend especially in Europe and North America. Furthermore, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic continues to create uncertainty. And it can still lead to additional restrictions that could impact us, our business partners and our customers. Innovation is the major cornerstone for every company to successfully manage the future. On Chart 10, I put together some examples for innovative products and systems at KB. Overall, we kept our spending on research and development at a constant level in absolute terms in 2020, investing around EUR 400 million. In 2020, we focused, for example, on the following R&D activities. In the rail business, our innovative EP2002 3.0 brake control system enables precise braking and is a basic prerequisite for a smooth train operation. Our HVAC systems support passenger safety on trains through intelligent air distribution as well as filter and purification systems. Here we use, for example, high-intensity UV radiation in the airflow to kill viruses and bacteria. In our truck business, the latest generation of global scalable brake control, GSBC, is the successor to our well-known ABS and EBS solutions. To prepare our truck division for the coming generations of e-vehicles, we have launched the group's internal eCUBATOR as an agile think tank. With this, I would like to hand over to my colleague, Frank Weber.

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Jan, and a warm welcome from my side as well. Thank you for joining us today. I would like to echo Jan's thoughts and especially express my deepest condolences to the family of Heinz Hermann Thiele. Let us get into the numbers now, first, with a look at the overall full year performance before we later look deeper into quarter 4 of 2020. But before I start doing so, let me express my utmost appreciation to all the great colleagues at Knorr-Bremse around the world who worked with their full dedication in order to muster such an extraordinary year for Knorr-Bremse as well. They are all the foundation of what we can see here in terms of facts and figures. Considering the economic environment being strongly impacted by the pandemic around the world last year, Knorr-Bremse's overall performance and resilience has been extraordinary. The numbers confirm the high-performance culture and the special robustness of our business model. Nevertheless, KB was not fully immune to the negative impact caused by the pandemic even though to a significantly lesser extent than compared with other companies in the industrial sector. Order intake was down by almost 9% to EUR 6.4 billion. The order book on the other side grew once again by 6% to record heights of almost EUR 5 billion, a very solid basis for the current fiscal year. Despite the 11% decline in revenue in 2020, we achieved an EBITDA margin of 18%. Significant cash preservation measures led to a strong free cash flow of EUR 729 million and a cash conversion rate of 137%, which is, of course, not sustainable but a very welcomed contribution within the crisis. Let us proceed on Chart 12 and have a look at the guidance 2020. Despite the challenging environment driven by the pandemic, we kept our promises and achieved our revenue and profitability guidance for 2020. Last year, we were one of the first companies to come out with a quantitative guidance again in summer. With better visibility around COVID-19 impacts in July, we did provide a guidance for top line and EBITDA margin. In September, together with the quarter 2 results, we were able to narrow down the guideline ranges and could confirm reaching the upper end in November at our quarter 3 results calls. With revenues of EUR 6.16 billion, we have reached the upper end. Due to our quick reaction and implementation of countermeasures at the start of the pandemic, we were able to safeguard our margins at a high level. We overfulfilled the margin guidance of 16.5% to 17.5% with a group margin of 18% in 2020. Other KPIs are also in line or slightly above market expectations, such as group order backlog of EUR 4.98 billion, EBIT margin at 13.2%, net income of around EUR 532 million. And earnings per share stand at EUR 3.07. Let me give you a short overview about the development of Knorr-Bremse's balance sheet KPIs on a full year basis before diving into the details of the fourth quarter results. Considering the uncertain economic environment last year, it was very important for Knorr-Bremse to maintain a high level of stability and flexibility in terms of our liquidity position. We were able to increase the liquidity by almost 25% to overall EUR 2.3 billion. In this respect, Knorr-Bremse also launched a EUR 3 billion debt issuance program in order to increase the financial flexibility quickly if needed. At the beginning of the pandemic, we drew credit lines of EUR 750 million in April 2020. Due to the good development of our cash flow throughout -- during the year 2020, we were able to pay back EUR 250 million of the credit line already last October and in addition EUR 150 million just last month. Next month, we will be repaying the remaining EUR 350 million. In all our efforts, we tried to maintain a healthy level of equity, which stands at EUR 1.92 billion and represents a relatively stable equity ratio of 26% despite the credit loans -- drawn credit lines I have just mentioned, which we're extending the balance sheet. The strong resilience of our balance sheet and the good development of our business activities are also confirmed by the rating agencies. Moody's, for example, rates us at A2 and Standard & Poor's at A. Both just recently confirmed their ratings. Let's continue on Chart 14. We have initiated a CapEx management program in 2020, and we prioritize and monitor ongoing spending very closely. In the third and fourth quarter 2020, we realized first effects from these measures but with a clear focus to safeguard our position as innovation and quality leader in the respective markets. Accordingly, investments in absolute terms still slightly increased compared to previous year. In relation to sales, investments reached 5.6%. I'd like to mention here a few examples of our investments in future growth technology. We expanded the capacity for air disc brakes in North America. We developed software applications further. We expanded our global steering business and continued to invest what's necessary in technology and innovation. Net working capital at the end of last year showed a decrease to EUR 746 million after EUR 809 million at the end of the previous year. In the first 3 quarters of last year, we had a significant buildup of working capital to ensure the ability to supply our customers. Our corporate policy, customer first, is very important to us and has been a cornerstone of our business success for decades. Accordingly, we have kept a higher level of inventory to support our customers and suppliers in these difficult times by avoiding a potential disruption of their supply chains and liquidity. In this respect, we granted longer payment terms for customers, too. As a consequence, we also accepted a higher level of working capital throughout the year. In quarter 4, we reduced significantly our net working capital by lowering the accounts receivables and inventories and also worked on the payables. At the same time, we reduced CapEx, R&D costs and achieved lower tax payments overall. In addition, net working capital benefited from the improved operating results of the fourth quarter as well. In the current fiscal year, we expect that net working capital should be higher again also due to the impact of sales growth going forward. Annualized operating ROCE, return on capital employed, was impacted by both lower EBIT and increased working capital but still with 26%, well above most other companies in the capital goods sector. Let me continue with our free cash flow on Chart 15. The free cash flow in 2020 reached EUR 729 million, which is 9% higher compared to 2019 when excluding the nonorganic onetime effects of the sale and leaseback transaction in quarter 4 of 2019. Consequently, the cash conversion rate, defined with us as free cash flow divided by profit after tax, reached a very high level of 137%. The main drivers were the effects on net working capital just mentioned. However, our strict management with regard to investments, R&D expenditures as well as lower tax payments and the good quality of earnings also contributed positively to this development. Due to the targeted sales growth and the increased net working capital in 2021, as mentioned before, and impact from higher tax payments, we expect that the cash conversion rate will be below 100% in the current fiscal year. In order to maintain our market leadership, which is based on technological innovation and quality, it is very important for us to keep investing in research and development. During COVID-19, when we saw that some customers pushed several R&D projects, we slowed down our investments in half year 1 accordingly. Due to the recovery of the market sentiment, overall demand in the field of innovation by our customers increased again. As a result, we brought the R&D investments to a higher level in half year 2 and kept R&D in absolute terms on the same level overall like in 2019. In the 2020 financial year, EUR 396 million, 6.4% of sales, were invested in our research and development activities at group level. Our target R&D ratio of 5% to 6% of revenues has not changed and will be focused on going forward. At the start of the crisis, we quickly implemented countermeasures and a stringent cost program, which included strictly managing head count in 2020. Despite employees added through acquisitions last year, we were able to generate our sales and profits with even less employees than previous year on average. Knorr-Bremse is highly flexible in terms of its workforce. We reduced the overall number of employees in 2020, but we rehired new staff when the economic recovery set in again in half year 2. Therefore, we are now also in a position to have sufficient personnel capacities to cope with a good demand going forward. Let me continue on Chart 17. I would like to give you an overview about our ESG activities at Knorr-Bremse and our progress last year as this is one of our major strategic cornerstones. For our group, corporate sustainability means striving for economic, social and ecological goals equally and simultaneously. This is based on the foundation of a good corporate governance. We want to create lasting values, offer good working conditions and treat the environment and resources carefully. Our sustained efforts on ESG issues are also confirmed by our good external ratings. We are rated by the major rating agencies, and we are able to improve our ratings, in some cases, significantly even compared to 2019. With our climate strategy, we want to contribute to achieving the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. Our climate strategy includes to achieve the goal of being carbon-neutral by the end of 2021 and having our CO2 emissions by 2030 halfened. In order to meet this decarbonization target, Knorr-Bremse is continuously working on improving the energy efficiency of our production using more self-generated renewable energy and expanding purchasing of renewable energy as a whole. We have further pushed the measures of reaching the targets, e.g., with placing further photovoltaic systems on our plants in U.S. and in Hungary. We are fully on track to reach our goals for 2020. We have started to take on EcoDesign criteria for the prioritization of our innovation products in the R&D division in 2020. Our employees have the highest priority, and we also strongly focus on their health and safety. As a result, we were able to further decrease the number of accidents to the lowest number ever recorded at Knorr-Bremse. Additionally, in order to increase sustainability across our supply chain, we gradually rolling out our code of conduct for suppliers across our entire supplier base. As already mentioned, in quarter 3 conference call, we plan to anchor ESG targets in the management's compensation system as of 2022 as sustainability is an important topic for us. Besides all these implemented measures and efforts, we truly believe environmentally friendly and efficient mobility is one of the greatest tasks of our future. We see rail and truck as mobility of the future for people and goods. Let me continue with an overview of the financial highlights of the fourth quarter on Chart 18. Order intake was strong at EUR 2.1 billion on group level, and so was our order book reaching EUR 5.0 billion. This provides a very solid foundation of visibility in the coming quarters. At EUR 1.6 billion, revenues only decreased by minus 4% compared to the fourth quarter of last year driven organically by both RVS and CVS but also by FX headwinds. On a comparable level, our EBITDA margin increased from 18.7% to 19.3% in quarter 4 2020 if the nonorganic events, sale and leaseback and additional effects for the closure of the site in Wülfrath back in those days are excluded, which is an apples-to-apples comparison. Free cash flow reached EUR 560 million in the quarter due to the previous mentioned reasons. However, this high figure should not be expected as a sustainable level. Let me dive deeper into order intake and order book on Chart 19. Order intake on group level in quarter 4 increased by 9% to EUR 2.1 billion compared to the same period in the previous year. On an organic basis, the increase was even higher at around 12%. In general, the development of order intake in 2021 should be quite good, but we expect that quarter 1 should be rather a weaker quarter due to seasonality. I will go into this in more detail in the divisional part. Our book-to-bill ratio in quarter 4 was positively impacted as well, reaching 1.33 versus 1.18 in the previous year's quarter. The development of order book at the end of the fourth quarter was also particularly pleasing as it increased by 6% to EUR 4.98 billion. This level marks a new record in Knorr-Bremse's history. Let me continue with our revenue development on Chart 20. In the quarter September to December of 2020, revenue on group level decreased by minus 4% or, in absolute terms, by minus EUR 57 million to EUR 1.57 billion. On an organic level, we saw a better performance. Organically, the decline was only 2%. Just like in the quarters before, the APAC region continued to develop particularly well and showed 2% growth on a year-on-year comparison. This region becomes more and more important for KB's top line and represents almost 1/3 of our global business activities. Europe also continued its recovery, which started in quarter 3 already and was, on a full year basis, with minus 1%, only slightly below previous year's level. It still accounts for the lion's share of our total revenue with a share of around 45%. North America, which was hit by the COVID-19 crisis very intense, recorded double-digit sales decline in the fourth quarter year-over-year, but this decrease was significantly lower than in the first half of 2020. All in all, nevertheless, North America still stood at minus 14% compared to the previous quarter of '19. Let me continue with the development of our profitability on Chart 21. In the fourth quarter of 2020, group's EBITDA was at EUR 303 million after EUR 304 million in the previous year's quarter. Please keep in mind that this operating comparison of profitability excludes the onetime effects of the sale and leaseback transaction in quarter 4 2019 and additional extra costs related to the plant closure in Wülfrath. The EBITDA margin amounted to 19.3% after 18.7% in quarter 4 '19. This increase clearly shows the resilience of our business model. The ongoing negative impact from the market environment could be overcompensated by strict cost measures implemented in both divisions and on group level. In the fourth quarter, we were already able to reduce some of the measures compared to -- compared with other quarters as the demand situation recovered faster than expected in some segments. The aftermarket share remained relatively stable year-over-year at around 35% in the fourth quarter of 2020. In absolute figures, too, aftermarket was not immune to the effects of the pandemic and recorded a decrease of 7% to EUR 553 million. This decrease was driven by both divisions but predominantly by CVS. The group's EBIT of EUR 222 million also only saw a slight decline of EUR 15 million year-over-year. At 14.2%, the EBIT margin was only slightly below the previous year's level of 14.6%. Let's move on to the divisional view, starting with RVS on Slide 22. In the fourth quarter of 2020, order intake of the rail division was at EUR 1.1 billion, a decrease of 4% in total and only 2% on an organic basis. The improvement compared with a weaker third quarter of 2020 is remarkable and amounted to more than EUR 350 million. RVS was able to win some larger contracts in the past quarter as some postponed orders from rail operators were placed. As mentioned before, contract awards in the rail industry are very difficult to put into a quarterly closet as they often span several months and even years. In 2021, we expect RVS to book significantly more orders in quarter 2 to quarter 4 than in the first quarter of the year. It might be that the quarter 1 could be the weakest quarter in 2021 regarding order intake and revenues. The development in China should have a negative impact at the beginning of the year due to shifts in the high-speed segment and in the aftermarket business because governmental restrictions around Chinese New Year slowed down passenger traffic significantly. In addition, we also see postponements of tenders in India especially for coaches. The book-to-bill ratio in quarter 4 developed favorably as well as -- with 1.41 versus 1.32 on a year-to-year comparison. The order book also increased by 4% year-over-year and finished the year 2020 at EUR 3.7 billion. This level provides a good visibility and is the basis for solid revenue growth we expect overall for RVS in '21. I'm now moving on to revenue and profitability for the rail division on Chart 23. In the fourth quarter of 2020, RVS recorded revenues of EUR 774 million, which is a decrease of minus 11% year-over-year, organically minus 8%. RVS recorded declining sales in both the OE and the aftermarket business in the fourth quarter year-over-year. Partly, RVS faced some pull-forward effects in the aftermarket segment from the second half of 2020 into the first half of the year. As a result, revenues in this segment in the fourth quarter of 2020 were overall around 4% below the previous year's figure. Please keep in mind, trains in service are more important than the pure ridership levels. But some operators have reduced the number of trains due to lower ridership numbers. The aftermarket business was affected by this trend in quarter 4 and in the full year. At a closer look, however, the regional development was encouraging. In Asia, where the COVID-19 infection figures have decreased significantly, in some cases, the aftermarket business has already developed positively again. Europe was predominantly affected by lower revenues from all vehicle types. Only OE sales of regional and commuter trains and freight cars increased in this period. The aftermarket business decreased slightly in Q4 2020 year-over-year driven by the tense situation for rail operators. APAC, including China, also declined overall in quarter 4 on a year-over-year basis. This was driven only by the OE business. Aftermarket increased by 3% versus the quarter 4 of 2019. China posted a positive development in the OE business driven by metro as well as in the aftermarket business. In North America, we recorded an overall decline in both segments, OE and aftermarket. Freight improved slightly compared to the third quarter but was still well below last year's level. In 2021, overall, RVS revenues should grow solidly. This development should be supported predominantly by the OE business. Due to the lead time between order intake and turnover of minimum 6 to 9 months, we expect that revenue development in half year 1 2021 will be stronger than in half year -- and half year 2 will be stronger than in half year 1 especially due to the expected slower development in the first quarter of the year. The profitability of RVS in the past quarter was certainly once more remarkable when considering the reduced top line. EBITDA of RVS came in at EUR 196 million in the fourth quarter and was down only minus 6% compared with last year. The EBITDA margin increased from 24.2% to 25.3% as well as the EBITDA -- EBIT margin, which went up from 20.7% to 21.3%. These margin improvements are based on the following topics. First, the COVID-19 countermeasures had a large impact on profitability in quarter 4 2020, contributing roughly EUR 16 million. Please keep in mind that the measures are predominantly of a short-term nature. Second, the accretive aftermarket revenue share increased favorably and went up from 44% in the fourth quarter '19 to 47% in the fourth quarter of 2020 basically led by a stronger decrease of OE sales in that period. Last but not least, the revenue share from accretive regions like Europe and APAC increased year-over-year, saw a positive mix effect. Let us continue with the development of our truck division on Slide 24. Incoming orders of CVS were exceptionally strong and one of the highlights in the fourth quarter of 2020 overall. At EUR 992 million, the overall figure was 29% higher than in the previous year and in line with the organic development of plus 31%. This development is very pleasing after the severe negative impacts on demand through the COVID-19 crisis, especially in Europe and North America in the first half of the year '20. Both regions benefited from catch-up effects in the second half of 2020. Freight volumes of both industrial goods and consumer goods continued to grow in main markets also in the fourth quarter. The e-commerce trend among consumers has been further fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic, which drives freight volumes. Altogether, this has led to increased freight rates and shortages in transport capacity, resulting in truck operators both replacing old trucks and expanding their fleets. In APAC, the development of order intake was again supported by China. The underlying positive trend in China was additionally fueled by pull-forward effects due to regulatory changes in 2021 and governmental stimulus programs in the context of the blue sky program. In terms of order intake in '21, the development of CVS could be other way around compared to RVS. We assume that quarter 1 2021 could tend to be CVS' strongest quarter in terms of order intake and sales in 2021. In the following quarters, we do not expect a trend reversal, but driven by component shortages and other supplier and -- on the supplier and customer side as well as a weaker truck production rate in China, definitely less positive development overall. The order book of our truck division amounted to EUR 1.3 billion at the end of 2020, which is remarkable, higher year-over-year. The order book level of CVS therefore has almost reached pre-COVID levels. Book-to-bill was well above 1 in the fourth quarter. Let's move on to Slide 25. CVS posted EUR 793 million in revenues for the fourth quarter. Compared with last year's figure, this is an increase of 5%. In Europe, top line developed positively compared to previous year's quarter as well as compared to all prior quarters in the year 2020. In North America, the revenue development was stable year-over-year. This was the best quarterly performance in 2020. The region was nevertheless still affected by the pandemic, but we saw a steady improvement in the general conditions. The APAC region posted revenue growth in the fourth quarter 2020, plus 15% year-over-year and plus 22% versus quarter 3 of the same year, well supported by China. The share of aftermarket sales decreased from 29% in the previous year to 24%, which is due to a strong OE business in that fourth quarter. In addition, the aftermarket revenue faced tougher comparables year-over-year because the strong recovery took place in the second half of 2019 after workshops optimized their inventory in the first half of 2019. In terms of revenue development in '21, we expect CVS to have a stronger performance in half year 1 than in half year 2. In the fourth quarter 2020, CVS achieved an EBITDA of EUR 121 million, which is 7% higher than the previous year. The EBITDA margin amounted to 15.3% compared to an operating level of 14.9% a year ago. CVS has thus returned to late 2019 levels in terms of margins, also benefiting from the successfully implemented cost measures. In addition, better capacity utilization, coupled with a lower cost base, supported profitability in the last quarter. Let's move to my last slide, probably one of the most interesting one for most of you, our guidance for the year 2021. As always, the outlook for 2021 is under the disclaimer of a stable political and macroeconomical environment, no further setbacks driven by the COVID-19 pandemic and based on current FX rates. In addition, the shortage in the semiconductor sector should be kept in mind when looking at our outlook for 2021 as we expect that this topic will remain with us in the second half of the year 2021. But at this point in time, we assume that potentially lost production volume can be made up in the further course of 2021 driven by general capacity adjustments of the supplier base of the truck industry. Please note that we will focus more on EBIT regarding profitability guidance when moving towards 2021 -- 2022, sorry, in line with our capital good peers. To make the transition as easy as possible for you, we provide guidance for EBITDA and EBIT along in 2021. We expect revenues between EUR 6.5 billion to EUR 6.9 billion, an EBITDA margin between 17.5% and 19% and an EBIT margin between 13% and 14.5%. In addition, we expect for ROCE, 25% to 30%. And we believe that head count should stay within the range of 29,500 to 30,500 employees. For scope of days in regards to net working capital, our plans are 45 to 50 days, and CapEx should be in the range between 5% and 6% of revenue. Thank you. I will now hand over to Jan.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Thanks, Frank. And congratulations to you and the whole team for the excellent results last year. Let us move to Slide 27. As I have just started at Knorr-Bremse and I'm still in my onboarding process with the company, I would like to share my first insights with you. Knorr-Bremse is an outstanding company with a proven, successful business model and an impressing track record. The people at Knorr-Bremse that I have met so far are characterized by a high-performance culture. They have a deeply rooted working mentality, and the company is highly entrepreneurially orientated, rail and truck focus on the megatrends in both market segments. Knorr-Bremse stands out for quality and innovation and is a strong partner to its customers. We develop products to increase safety and reduce emissions. By doing so, we support the global movement towards green mobility, and we are proud to be an important partner of this development. I don't think that our business model needs a revolution but continuous development. We at Knorr-Bremse consider ourselves as part of change. Rail is the only transport mode which has reduced its emissions while increasing passenger and freight volumes. In addition, energy efficiency could be improved at the same time. Overall, rail accounts for 0.5% of transport greenhouse gas emissions, whereas civil aviation accounts for 14% and road transportation for 72%. The EU wants to become climate neutral by 2050 and reduce transport-related greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. To achieve this goal, the European Commission has launched the Green Deal, which is to be implemented with an investment volume in higher, 3-digit billion euro range. The rail industry is an important pillar of this initiative. For example, 2021 will be the year of rail in Europe. In the coming months, we expect more details regarding this Green Deal initiative. RVS will benefit from this goal in the coming years by selling systems, components and aftermarket products. Attractive new segments like digitalization are also a big opportunity within the rail market. Just 5 weeks ago, RVS and Deutsche Bahn signed a cooperation agreement on the intelligent use of train operating data. The agreement aims to facilitate condition-based maintenance for rail vehicles with a view to optimizing maintenance and enabling database services. On the other hand, we see risks in China due to the autonomous policy. However, aftermarket business is developing well. At 40% to 45%, the Chinese aftermarket revenue share is at the same level as in the rest of the world for RVS. Our Chinese customers trust us and rely on quality and innovations from Knorr-Bremse especially when hunting for tenders outside China. We've been successful with this strategy in the past and look to the future with optimism. Overall, we believe that the opportunities arising from the Green Deal in Europe and other stimulus programs are significantly bigger than potential risks in China. Let me continue with my take on the truck division on Chart 29. Overall, we expect content per vehicle to continue to grow supported by new regulations and standards as well as new technologies. E-mobility and autonomously driving trucks are the big themes, which will change the truck markets most in the next couple of years. Our biggest revenue drivers around braking systems will also continue to evolve but will not fundamentally change due to both themes. Friction braking is and will be the most efficient way to brake a truck. So the defense stands, and if I draw a parallel with a football team, I would then exactly come to that point. What could be additionally in it for CVS? Or how could the offense score additional goals? To answer this question, we founded the eCUBATOR, as mentioned before. We see great opportunities in the combination of brakes and steering systems and adapting our portfolio to the electrification of trucks. Accordingly, we have strengthened our position by acquiring R.H. Sheppard. The advantages are obvious. First, there are not many competitors who have both technologies combined in-house, and second, steering will make technological leap forward in the next few years. Keywords here are steer-by-wire and torque overlay steering. But there are also challenges for CVS. We have already referred in detail to the shortage in the semiconductor sector today. In addition, we are monitoring the competitive situation very closely. Based on these first insights, I've summarized our top priorities we set as a team. Quality and innovation have been the foundation of our success in the past and should be in the future. We will not accept any compromises here. We continue to strengthen the cornerstones of our equity story or why investors should consider Knorr-Bremse, growing stronger than both markets, profitable sales growth and strong free cash flow. We also want to further strengthen our corporate governance and make a contribution to a sustainable and green economic development on KB group level. I would like to finish my presentation with Chart 31. Knorr-Bremse is excellently positioned for the future. We have a strong management team, not just at the top level, engineers who are open to the future products and systems that are appreciated by our customers. We are the market leader in rail and truck, and we fight every day to defend these positions. In the COVID-19 crisis, we have proven that we have delivered on our promises of market outperformance and resilient profitability. We already have good corporate governance in place today and will further strengthen this important issue in the coming years. We are stable and focused on continuity, but we will never be boring, I promise you. With this, I would like to thank you very much for your attention. We will end the webcast now and start the Q&A session in a minute or 2. [Operator Instructions]

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And we've received the first question. It is from Ingo Schachel, Schachel.

[Ingo-Martin Schachel]

Thank you very much, Jan, for sharing the first impressions that you got with Knorr-Bremse. And very interesting points on digitalization products, and we're looking forward to seeing the progress in these areas. One aspect which I think you've not yet touched on very intensively is really on culture and processes. I think at Siemens, you've been part of a journey during which Siemens became much leaner, more agile, more international, more diverse, less bureaucratic and less centralized. At least that's the impression we got. I was just wondering whether Knorr-Bremse reminds you of Siemens in any way regarding those cultural aspects and, if yes, which one of the one at the beginning of Joe Kaeser's tenure at the end or of the one under von Pierer.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes, Ingo. Thank you very much for that question. Indeed, it's -- you're raising some very interesting points here. First of all, talking about digitalization. It is important to see that there are lots of opportunities here on the Knorr-Bremse side. We see lots of pockets of excellence where digitalization is already running and where lighthouse projects are being undertaken that we can see in factories, in areas where processes are being digitalized already. For example, the PLM process. But a holistic kind of program is something that we still need to put in place here in order to start a holistic digitalization transformation journey that will take time and has to be defined first in order to move in the right direction. Talking about culture and processes. What I'm very impressed of is the very strong kind of performance-oriented culture that Knorr-Bremse has embedded in their genes almost. And this is really in each and every of the employees. It is blended with an entrepreneurial spirit, and that stems from the way how Knorr-Bremse is being run. It's a rather decentralized company with lots of decentralized responsibility and P&L ownership that we find throughout the company in the specific regions. And this is so important because the business is very regional. So we have to be pretty much -- to build the solutions according to requirements of the respective truck builders as much as the companies in the countries that build the trains and then put them into operation in specific regions. So it's kind of project business on the RVS side that we are undertaking. And this has been very, very successfully developed in a very profitable way. And this doesn't come without respective culture and respective attitude towards topics. Talking about processes, this is probably something where we could, in some areas, catch up and where there's room to maneuver. The point here is that Knorr-Bremse has been developing through a lot of acquisitions and additional buildups of companies and is, in fact, if you look deeply inside, a conglomerate of different companies. And I think there's scope in terms of streamlining and standardizing processes that can then subsequently also digitalize so that we have a potential here, which is twofold. First, standardization and leanness of processes and then digitalization that helps us in that regard. If I look at the overall structure of Knorr-Bremse -- and I don't want to draw a comparison to any other company here. But what I'm seeing here is a very, very lean approach where efficiency counts. And this kind of attitude of being lean, of driving things with a clear business focus, I would say, is a very, very strong cultural aspect of Knorr-Bremse.

[Ingo-Martin Schachel]

Okay. So from a communication perspective, we should probably also not expect a step change, not a big holistic digitalization program to be announced at one given date, the summer, but probably more gradual, let's say, add-ons, gradual improvements of what you already perceive as quite, quite strong at Knorr?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes, which is from my experience the right way to go in any case. So I'm not a big supporter of kickstarting huge programs that then start becoming very bureaucratic and, at the end of the day, don't touch the bottom line. It is very important that carefully, the right areas of digitalization, of improvement, of process streamlining are being defined. And one -- and then along the areas of best payback and along the areas of quick wins, you work yourself into the improvements and then work on it rather gradually than trying a big bang approach where you just confuse the whole company in terms of using the resources all of a sudden for digitalization, but then no one is available anymore to run the company. So that would be counterproductive. And that's why a careful and meaningful and sensible approach, I think, is of the essence.

[Ingo-Martin Schachel]

Okay. And if I may ask a quick question on KB Holding and then probably quick because the answer is probably no. And of course, we absolutely share the sadness and sympathy that you've expressed in your opening remarks regarding the very sad passing of Mr. Thiele. But if I may ask, can you share with us what you already know about KB Holding's -- or the parent company's, KB Holding's intention to do with the shareholdings, what changes you expect in the shareholder register?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Here, you might appreciate, and you alluded to that already that we don't have any transparency of what's happening in the private considerations of the Thiele family. The point that we just would like to make here is that we don't have any indication as Knorr-Bremse management today that the current stability in the shareholding will be by any means disrupted. So there's no indication to this at this point.

[Operator]

The next question is from Sven Weier, UBS.

[Sven Weier, Executive Director and Analyst]

The first one is also for Dr. Mrosik, and it is more also a strategic question regarding the development of the business areas. So first of all, obviously, in the last few years, KB had done quite a number of acquisition to strengthen the truck business and what you talked about steering, for example. So I was wondering, strategically on the M&A side, what do you think you still have to do maybe on rail in terms of putting the business forward, also with regard to digitization? And what general M&A firepower do you see? Because it seems that the arbitration court ruling means that you have to buy out the Bosch JV, which could cost up to EUR 380 million. So what's the firepower beyond that? That's the first one.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Let me start with the first part, and then I'll hand over to Frank. So we see that we're, as you might appreciate, looking into any kind of opportunity that might arise in our environment, but we have to see and look at 2 things in that regard. Whenever it comes to consideration of acquisitions, it is very important for us that a potential target really fits to Knorr-Bremse. We need to make sure that appropriate synergies are being evaluated there in any case in order to justify such an investment. And therefore, also, this has to be in the core context of what Knorr-Bremse is all about, making sure that it is just addition to our existing portfolio and can become an integral part to this. Digitalization, there, we are certainly investing quite a bit in order to develop digital business models and digital -- the usage of the data that our systems produce at this point in time. A brake, for example, produces data. An HVAC system produces data. A door produces data. All these systems are extremely sensitive to the availability of trains. And therefore, it is just something that makes absolute sense to make this data available for preventative maintenance purposes in order to optimize, first of all, the maintenance cycles on the one hand and to, secondly, do the maintenance cycles at a point in time that they -- just before a certain device's breaking going to take place. And therefore, we would increase then overall availability of equipment. And that's what we're doing. That's what we're working on. And a very good example of this is the recent contract with Deutsche Bahn that I mentioned in my presentation, where data is being made available to exactly optimize this topic of the operations of a train, means the maintenance phase and maintenance cycles. With regard to firepower, Frank, do you want to make a comment?

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

So you think I'm the right person to answer that. So thank you very much, Sven, for the question. I mean you as well know that we have usually a pipeline of 5 to 10 active M&A projects that we are dealing with. None of those 5 to 10 that we currently have on the table is of the sheer size that it would potentially spoil our M&A firepower going forward that I will now relate to as this was your question. But just that like we talked before, it's usually 5 to 10 M&A topics, all in the fields of adjacencies like Jan just mentioned. The revenue on the service side, aftermarket of things, high profitability, software-driven businesses, all those kind of businesses are in focus when we think about M&A going forward. So as you know, our firepower, and look at our balance sheet and in conjunction with the plannings going forward, we do see a significant amount of firepower, which is beyond the EUR 2 billion range. And this has basically -- if you look at this dimension has basically nothing to do with the starting point of your question, which is the Bosch 20% joint venture topic. And we would think that with our financial liability being booked at EUR 379 million, this in regards to this sheer size that we would -- potentially could continue to borrow in order to still keep industrial-grade level at Knorr-Bremse, if I take this as a theoretical ceiling kind of, wouldn't move the needle, yes, so in that regard, yes? So it would be still above -- significantly above additional EUR 2 billion that we would theoretically have. But as I said, and that's why I made this long answer to your precise question. We don't have currently an M&A target on the table, which would require us to think in that dimensions in regards of extension of the balance sheet, yes? But you are right, the Bosch arbitration court ruling has reached us by the end of December. And we now have to get into good-faith discussions with Bosch in regards to negotiate on the price tag of the 20% shareholding. That is absolutely right.

[Sven Weier, Executive Director and Analyst]

The next question I had is also another technological one. You were already referring that the frictionless brake is here to stay. I was just wondering now, with the proliferation of e-trucks likely in the coming years, whether you don't think that the electromechanical braking discussions or the braking by wire is becoming more momentum again. And I guess your competitor, Haldex, is quite aggressive on that, it seems. So I was just wondering if you have any new view on that very topic.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Thank you very much for that question, which is obviously a very, very interesting one. With e-trucks coming in the next years, and I think this is rather a question whether they come sooner or later, not a question if. We will see changes, of course, in the different aggregates and systems on trucks. However, when it comes to a precise braking, an emergency braking or braking on the spot, there is no way around a friction brake. And therefore, we believe that in -- on any kind of a truck drivetrain system, we'll see friction brakes. However, we believe that in Knorr-Bremse, we have a very strong history already and a strong knowledge and track record to blend the different braking systems on a truck, which is the engine may be a combustion engine with flaps today or in the future, an electric engine that will have braking functionality as well to blend it with the friction brake and other devices that will add to the braking system overall and optimize it overall, including recuperation. So that's where we come from. As Knorr-Bremse, that's what we know about. And that's what we are working on in order to also be prepared for the next generation of trucks. And by the way, in order to be prepared for this new generation of trucks, of e-trucks, we just founded our incubator in -- or eCUBATOR we call it in Knorr-Bremse in order to generate these ideas of what kind of product needs to be transferred into the future, what has to be adapted, what kind of new devices do we need in order to also take on the role that we have in today's conventional trucks also in the future of e-trucks. So we're in a good way there, and we are very confident that we'll play a very, very important role in the future of e-trucks as well. And by the way, also electromechanical braking, that's something we are on it today.

[Sven Weier, Executive Director and Analyst]

Yes. And the final one is also relating to Mr. Thiele. And of course, we are all mourning with you on the sad incident. But I was just curious, I mean you referred to the perceived stability on the family side as far as the shareholding is concerned. But I was also wondering, in terms of the day-to-day management of the company, the strategic setting of the company. Of course, we all know that Mr. Thiele was quite influential on the strategy setting. I think he's been even active on a weekly basis still in the company and seeing clients sometimes. So how should we expect that to develop from here? I would assume your answer is also stability there, but yes, just curious on your comments.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

The answer is, of course, stability, but let me expand a little bit on this. Mr. Thiele has been building this company almost from scratch some decades ago. And he was one of the most influential and also knowledgeable person about the industrial segments of truck and rail. And therefore, a very, very important adviser has gone. So he's someone who was, in his role as Vice Chairman of the Supervisory Board and someone who was the majority owner, someone who was a close, of course, adviser to both the Supervisory Board as well as the Managing Board. He will be dearly missed in that regard. But on the other side, he has been a very wise individual by putting the company 15 years ago into the hands of an external management. He was also, together with the whole Supervisory Board, very instrumental in terms of selecting the people that are on the Board today. And he followed the path there very well. Of course, all of this being run under the guidance of Klaus Mangold, who is driving all of these processes, but he was certainly involved there. So he put together, together with the whole Supervisory Board, a team that is running the company now and, by the way, a Supervisory Board that is run by Klaus Mangold that was also strengthened last year with Mr. Enders and Mr. Weimer, who will, with their expertise, also support the Managing Board in terms of taking the right decisions and continuing the path that Mr. Thiele has successfully defined and implemented in the last decades. I think all in all, we are well prepared and well set up despite the fact that certainly, the passing away of Mr. Thiele is a heavy loss to the company, no doubt about that.

[Operator]

The next question is from Ben Uglow of Morgan Stanley.

[Benedict Ernest Uglow]

Can I just start with a little bit of help around the China business? Maybe this one is for Frank. You very kindly talked about the EBITDA margin performance in the quarter. What I'm interested in is how things develop in that market over the next, say, 1 to 2 years, not necessarily what happens this quarter. And in particular, can you talk a little bit about the shift in China from high speed to metro? If I look at your order intake for last year, and I think you said this on the call, I may be wrong, but basically, we are seeing metro being increasingly the dominant driver. Does that -- first of all, does that have implications for your aftermarket margin going forward? And -- yes, and secondly, if I think about the China aftermarket overall this year, just in terms of the growth, is -- should we still expect growth in China aftermarket rail? I'm talking about, sorry, overall?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Ben, thank you very much. I would like to start and then hand over to Frank.

[Benedict Ernest Uglow]

Oh, for sure.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

So on the China market, what we are currently seeing is that indeed, the mainline business, there, a lot of capacity additions have been done in the last couple of years. So that a lot of the buildout, I would say the lion's share probably of the buildout has already happened. There is still new lines being brought into operation, but this is, to some extent, tapering down right now. And it's exactly right, what you're saying that the metro business takes its dominant share right now and is the driving force in that market. Looking at the ridership and the question to what extent this influences the aftermarket business in China, you're absolutely spot on with your comment that obviously, at least in the first quarter, Chinese New Year and the prolongation of the shutdown of a couple of factories at this point in time, some of them are going to be closed even until these days, on the OEM side, are going to -- then to leave a dent in our business. And that's why Frank already made the remark that probably quarter 1 will be the one where we'll see some effects of COVID in our books. And we must not forget that even if a Chinese New Year obviously took place in China, the big travel that usually happens at that time and therefore the business in public transport has been dropping quite heavily because the travel was really discouraged this year. And therefore, the running of the trains did not happen, which obviously reduces wear and tear and will probably have some implications as well on the aftermarket development. Having said that and having made these general market remarks, I would like to hand over to Frank for the specific numbers.

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. Thank you, Jan, and thanks for your question. I mean we -- in order to understand a little bit better where we are currently coming from, I think you have to understand the quarter 4 margin performance of rail. I mean we have significantly benefited from, of course, the cost measures that we implemented in the year 2020, which led also to an effect of EUR 16 million that supported our margin significantly. Our aftermarket share was in the fourth quarter at 47% compared to previous year's level of 44% only, so it's at a really good aftermarket level, and also a good favorable mix we had on the revenue side with a good portion on the APAC and European side versus the rest of the world. So that is somehow the starting point. I think several years ago, also in discussions with many of your colleagues, there was always the 45% of aftermarket share is the target mentioned. You see how strong we are currently, are already in China and in the APAC region with that kind of aftermarket share. So going forward, generally, it's clear that there is much more to lose than to gain, so to say. And we have held the market expectations going forward. We all know that. We know the autonomous policy, with basically the political will kicking in over time, it's more of a headwind, we discussed that also several times, than it is a tailwind. That is pretty clear. I think Knorr-Bremse is well experienced to deal with such a headwind. You remember the situation in 2015, 2016 when Knorr-Bremse had market shares of more than 90% on the high-speed train side and, over a period of 5 years, dramatically lost on that aftermarket -- on that share but, at the same time, was able, due to a continuously growing market per se, to compensate for that. Because in absolute terms, Chinese revenue and then profitability figures have not been declining. And also with new contracts that we won, we were somehow able to compensate for that. So what does that mean? I would say, going forward, yes, all these issues that you mentioned give us headwinds going forward. But we do see, with all the orders on the OE side we have won in the past, especially also, we are strong on the metro side with having nearly 40% of our revenues in the metro business, there will be automatically coming additional aftermarket revenue potential. And only 8% on the high-speed side, there is still a potential there. And if you look at all the stimulus packages that are also ongoing in China, China still wants to expand its network on the non-high-speed side, increase the network towards 2035 by 25% and want to double the high-speed network towards 2035 by 100%. So all these things are a little bit arguments why we should still be able to not lose immediately certain aftermarket shares.

[Benedict Ernest Uglow]

Understood. That's a very helpful explanation. One to follow up for Jan, and I think it's similar to an earlier question. Knorr-Bremse, if we look at it in terms of revenue -- sorry, R&D expenditure and visit to facilities, et cetera, obviously, it is a -- at the forefront of innovation. The flip side, and I don't know how to put it politely, but it never struck me maybe wrongly as being at the forefront of what I would call automation. And when I think about the manufacturing processes within the company, and I appreciate that there's a lot of assembly, et cetera, in there, can you see obvious things that could be done a little bit differently, dare I say a little bit better, and that we could even see a sort of optimization benefit on the actual manufacturing side? I'm not thinking of necessarily design, software or anything like that. Just the way you do business, can that be improved?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes, Ben. Certainly, any kind of business can be improved. There's always scope to be better than we are at a point in time. But that's a fairly general statement. So going into the details of what's probably behind your question, what is being done currently and where we have pilots and where -- found activities in terms of digitalization is in specific lighthouse factories where IoT systems have already been connected to machines where data is being extracted and where also our optimization activities have been started in order to react on the content of these data. But as I already, during my presentation, outlined, there is scope to start with a full-blown and very systematic approach to how manufacturing is being done and apply digital procedures and digital, let's say, measures and tools in order to do a kind of a broad-based optimization. But to go into the details, it's probably a little bit difficult for me after 8 weeks because my experience tells me, you need to go into the details of a deep analysis in order to really define the pockets where you best start first with your investments in order to get the best possible outcome and payback for the undertakings. And that's what we are currently doing. We'll take a little while still, but we're certainly going to take this as a focal point going forward.

[Operator]

The next question is from Gael de-Bray of Deutsche Bank.

[Gael de-Bray]

I have 2, please. The first one is about RVS. I mean I'm curious to hear about the sort of discussions you're having at the moment with rail operators regarding the potential structural consequences of the pandemic and commuting patterns as well as on business passenger traffic data in the longer run due to the development of work from home and of the digital commercial tools. So this is question number one. Question number two is about CVS for which you mentioned an intensifying, sorry, competitive environment. So could you perhaps elaborate a bit more on this, in which areas, products, markets do you really see that happening?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Gael, thank you very much for your questions. The first one I would like to answer with the following statements. So first of all, obviously, we currently have a short-term ridership issue around the world because of the pandemic. But I think we all feel that with vaccinations coming, we'll better get this virus under control, and then this kind of temporary drawback and dent in the ridership of trains will go away. Question is, is there anything structural remaining? And there, the view of the rail operators as much as our view is that on the one hand side, people will work from home. They will commute probably less. On the other side, the economy will grow, and there will be the clear trend, because of CO2 emissions -- let's always keep in mind that once the pandemic will be under control, probably sustainability, greenhouse gas emission reduction will come to the fore, and we'll continuously and more and more talk about this instead of the pandemic. And then we'll see a clear trend, again, where people will move from probably individual cars that they're using today in order to avoid being affected by the pandemic, will move into a public transport again. And there, the ridership will increase. I think according to what we heard -- and by the way, our numbers show that, no big rail projects so far have been canceled. They are being postponed because of the current COVID situation. They are postponed because of the current cash flow issues that the rail companies are in. But there's no intention, at least nothing that we heard so far, that any projects would have been canceled and not being built. So infrastructure buildout is one of the major topics, and that's something to continuously benefit from because we're exactly in the right segments in order to benefit from this. CVS, intensifying competitive environment. So you might have heard about a couple of -- or at least one big merger that happened in our industry. This is, of course, a challenge that we are facing. On the other side, we feel that with our market share that we have today in brakes, then secondly, the strategic move towards steering with the acquisition of Hitachi steering and Sheppard in the United States, we have now a perfect combination of braking and steering. And with that and our partnership with Continental, where we get the sensors from, we'll be able to be a very strong company to deliver systems for autonomous driving and the combination of braking and steering in the future going forward. So we feel very comfortable with our situation even if we know that as always, competition is something to watch and something to take care -- to care.

[Gael de-Bray]

Okay. Can I try perhaps a follow-up on the very, very first question that was asked today? Given your very special experience at Siemens Digital Industries where you certainly had an access to the processes of so many companies in so many different markets, can I ask perhaps, on a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rate firstly the flexibility and automation level of your manufacturing processes today? And secondly, how would you rate the group's expertise in monitoring technology, connectivity and the likes of fee-based models?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. It's always difficult to give school notes, and I will refrain from doing that also in that case. But to put things into perspective, if you look in world terms, there is a few companies that are extremely advanced. There's a lot of companies that are on the way, and there's even more companies that have done nothing. And that's the majority, unfortunately, in a lot of countries, and we experienced a lot of companies in my previous roles that have not even started embarking on a journey towards digitalization. I would say Knorr-Bremse as well understood what needs to be done, what digitalization means and have, in a lot of areas, already started successfully with first programs that one can really build up on. There's still a way to go. Are we best-in-class? Certainly not. So there's a way to go. But the good thing is there is potential for us to improve going forward, and that's what we're going to tackle.

[Operator]

The next question is from Akash Gupta of JPMorgan.

[Akash Gupta, Research Analyst]

It's Akash here from JPMorgan. My first question is on CVS, so maybe 2 small questions to help us modeling -- model the business better. First one is that, can you tell us the share of the business between medium-duty trucks and heavy-duty trucks? And I'm more specific to the OE, original equipment part of the business. So keeping services aside, what is the latest mix between OE -- between heavy duty and medium duty? And the second question I have on CVS is basically what -- if you can tell us what was the outperformance or basically content per vehicle growth in 2020? And any indication for 2021 that do you expect it to go up or at the same level or might be coming down? So that's question number one.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. I would maybe start on the content per vehicle. We expect that over time -- it's hard to say what's going to happen there on an annual basis, but we expect this to grow by 4% annually. But that's more kind of a medium-term indication that I would like to give you. And for the remainder of the question, I would like to refer to Frank.

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Jan. Akash, thank you very much for your question. Basically, heavy-duty Class 8, so to say, we have 90% of our revenues. If you just look at heavy- to medium-duty trucks, 90% to 10%. So I think that's the quick and simple answer to your very first question. And second, you also asked a little bit about the -- if I got it right, in regards to the revenue share aftermarket versus OE business on the truck side. This is roughly 25% to 75% on the truck side. This is the usual pattern that we have. It's lower on the CVS side than we have on the RVS side where we talk about above 40%. We talk here, 25% to 30%, let me put it this way, roughly. And as Jan said, on the content per vehicle, we are not giving yearly figures. But as Jan already indicated, what we said at the IPO timing in our equity story and which -- what I also confirmed by the end of last year is that we also continuously see no issues why we shouldn't achieve the 4% on a yearly basis, yes? And there's, of course, a regional mix behind it. Out of Asia, you have different content per vehicle growth on a yearly basis than you have in North America or in Europe where you have more developed products in the background, so to say. And that's why usually, in Asia, the content per vehicle is higher. The growth of content per vehicle year-over-year is higher than in other parts of this world, but we have confirmed the 4% in 2020 and continuously.

[Akash Gupta, Research Analyst]

And the second question I have is on Bosch arbitration. So if I look at my previous notes, I think one of the point of this agreement was that noncompete in steering, where I think -- and previously, I understood that Bosch was kind of seeking noncompete in steering side where you have acquired some of the businesses. So I'm wondering if there is any update on that aspect.

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. Akash, thanks for that question. I have not proactively stated that. Yes, it was a point of the decision, the court decision. And this was ruled in favor for us. So the court clearly saw it as Knorr-Bremse's right to enter into the field of steering and that we are allowed to continue doing business there. On the other hand, we are obliged to get into negotiations with Bosch in order to fix and to negotiate the purchasing price for the 20% shareholding.

[Akash Gupta, Research Analyst]

And my final quick one is on margin guidance. I think since the IPO, you have been a bit conservative in guiding, and I see that at the lower end of the range, you guide for 6% growth in top line but indicating that EBITDA margin could be down 50 bps or down slightly at EBIT level. I just wanted to check, is that simply conservatism? Or is there anything in terms of higher raw material, which I think is passed through up to a certain -- with a certain delay, like anything that we should be aware of regarding year-on-year margin decline at the lower end of the margin range?

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, thank you. I mean you -- once you decide for a range, you have to pick the floor and the ceiling somehow. And I mean yes, we know that there are not only chances out there in this world, neither on the rail side nor on the truck side, and we have also somehow simulated for us what potential threats going along in 2021 could be. And we have -- we basically came along, most of them potentially continuously low ridership potentially going hand in hand with a reduced number of trains by the operator in the network, on the rail side, postponements of -- or like handling other -- handling of travel restrictions like in Chinese New Year in China, potentially also in other regions, this could endanger our profit situation. On the truck side, we have capacity issues and supply chain issues, like Jan also mentioned in his presentation. So a lot of things can happen. And so it's theoretically also possible that there is a scenario in 2021 where our margin wouldn't be on the level for 2020. And please understand it. And I would say, for the time being, it isn't too far off, I would say, if you'd rather go for average figures in regards to our guidance range then for, let's say, upper end or lower end of our ranges. So -- but thank you for bringing it up.

[Operator]

The next question is from Alexander Hauenstein of DZ Bank.

[Alexander Hauenstein, Analyst]

I have 4 questions. First of all, with regard to the major Berlin metro order, can you give us an idea how much is booked already in 2021 and might materialize into sales and earnings in this year and maybe also next year in order to get some feeling how much of an impact we could see here? And is this order already taken into consideration for the guidance? Or does it simply not materialize to a meaningful extent here in 2021? The second question is about your target 2022. I understand you were going for roughly 20% in margin. But the question is simply, is it still the right year? Is it potentially delayed somewhere? Will we get an update? What kind of sales level should we think about? And third question is on RVS. I'm wondering whether there's any impact from the recently approved infrastructure stimulus packages from Deutsche Bahn or, let's say, the German government to Deutsche Bahn, et cetera. So is there any flow-through from -- for your side? And the last question is on the truck cycle. When you look back, what surprised you in CVS during this pandemic? And what might surprise post the pandemic?

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. It's -- thank you for your question, Alexander. Let me take the first 2 and then maybe the fourth, but I have not heard whom you expect to answer the fourth question. So first of all, the deal that you mentioned is booked in our order intake in the first quarter of 2021 with an amount of EUR 30 million. And in overall, it should be what is bookable, so to say, EUR 60 million overall in our order book. So that is the first question. The second is -- I need maybe a little bit wider explanation. It's about the 20.3% of EBITDA margin for the whole group outlined in the IPO equity story for 2022. I'm absolutely a believer, and I think, Jan -- I know that Jan shares my view on this, that Knorr-Bremse can definitely achieve this level of profitability. We definitely think so despite the fact that we have in the meantime made acquisitions, like, for example, Sheppard where you very well are aware that they are not performing up to the level of such an average performance rate. So we have a systematic dilution in our system in the meantime, which was not -- but let's forget all that. I just want to explain to you that this -- even despite the structural changes of the group revenue and profitability structure, we do think that Knorr-Bremse can achieve the 20.3%, and we are not shying away from implementing this figure in our plans. Do we think that 2022 is the right year to do so? Maybe not. And I just do simple maths here also jointly with my colleagues and, of course, backed by concrete plans of the divisions and the regions. I would say, if you take into consideration one lost year due to COVID, then I would say maybe 2023 is potentially the better year to achieve that and we'd just say 1 year somehow we lost. We are thinking along that line currently. And we are intending to hold for you, colleagues, a Capital Market Day in the second half of the year, you know that. And we're just thinking about the right timing when to do so, and then we will dig deeper with you in that regard.

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes. Alexander, let me take care of your third question. Whenever approved infrastructure for Deutsche Bahn is going to be put in place, of course, there will be in the long run something that will also fall into our segments and where Knorr-Bremse can benefit from. The cyclicity of these projects is typically very, very long term. So that means if an approved budget is there, it takes a while until all the planning is being done then the RFQs go out. And then at the end of the day, really business materializes. From that point of view, it's still a little bit early to judge what exactly this is going to be and at what point in time it will materialize. But we have a strong position in general here in Europe and specifically in Germany in the rail industry. And whenever something major is going to be built there, it is very likely that Knorr-Bremse with their leading technology will also benefit from that. Talking about the truck cycle. This was almost kind of a very, very -- it was almost like a rollercoaster ride. We look at 2019, the end of 2019 and then the first quarters in 2020, business really went substantially down, then all of a sudden in quarter 3, quarter 4, a recovery mainly on the back of increasing demand in China, which was probably something that for the whole industry, this recovery in quarter 3 and 4 was somehow unexpected after the deep dip in quarter 2. And that's a situation that was probably the first surprise in the pandemic that even during the pandemic and at a point in time when the second wave was coming, all of a sudden, a big increase and rise in demand occurred. And what might surprise post-pandemic, so if I knew the surprise that will come in the future, then I would be probably not working here. That's something that's very hard to say what the next surprise is going to look like. We think that in the CVS industry, in the truck industry, the surprise that currently hits us most is the unavailability or lacking availability of electronic components that goes to the industry, which comes together with a very, very high demand. So that all in all, we have almost a perfect market situation where the higher ceiling is currently being pretty much defined by the availability of components, which is almost, for everyone who is working in this industry, something like a perfect storm. And we know that also from the passenger car industry that is currently in a similar situation. So -- but we believe that also the CVS segment, as the rail segment, is going to be in the future a growth field and a growth industry where we'll see with cyclicity which will continue to surprise us, but we don't know when it will occur and when, which where the underlying trends and long-term market prospects are fully intact, and they are encouraging.

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

Let me just -- one thing, Alexander, to your question because you asked about impressions, and this was Jan's impression. I had at the time when I joined Knorr-Bremse one fundamental impression, and this was a surprise for me in regards to CVS, that this management, this organization was able to manage the second quarter without a loss, yes? I have actually not seen too many suppliers at that point in time in that second quarter that did so. So that was for me, to see how disciplined, how encouraged, how brutal at times they were able to manage that business and keep it even up to a level of 3% ROIs at that time.

[Operator]

The next question is from William Mackie of Kepler Cheuvreux.

[William Mackie, Head of Capital Goods Research]

First question, I guess, goes straight to Jan. Could you share with us the sort of the basis at least of the KPIs that drive your remuneration structure just to get an idea of how you will prioritize the actions and projects that you will put into motion across the group, would be the first. The second comes back to perhaps your general statement on achievements last year. Would you share where you think you gained the greatest market share either by region or within the specific divisions? And I guess the last question would be about CVS and the sort of strategic growth. I mean when I look at ZF-WABCO's combination in the combination of steering and braking, they're obviously building up a very -- they have a very strong capability. You have a very strong capability. But how is that future development of autonomous driving beginning to evolve in terms of a relationship between the OEMs and yourselves, i.e., how much control in the development of the software and control systems is being handed to you as a key first tier supplier? And how much is -- actually tends to be retained within the OEMs as a core capability for the future?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes, the KPIs that drive the remuneration structure, so let's start with the structure altogether. So there's a fixed income, as you know, then there is a short-term incentive and then a long-term incentive. The short-term incentive is usually based on the usual KPIs that we know. That's turnover, and that's EBIT-related, and there is a third part, which is dependent on individual targets that are being defined by the Supervisory Board and then assessed by the end of the year. The long-term incentive is based on the -- currently on the shareholder value but in the future on total shareholder return. So that will change this year. And there's another component that adds to the long-term incentive that will be introduced next year, which is ESG-related. So that's more or less the structure. I hope that answers your question in that regard.

[William Mackie, Head of Capital Goods Research]

Yes. I wonder if there's a flavor for how you prioritize whether it's to drive return on capital employed or to allocate the company's balance sheet through effective inorganic acquisitions and those links? So they're linked to the TSR calculation. Is that what you're saying?

[Jan Michael Mrosik, Chairman of the Executive Board]

Yes, indeed, indeed. And that's basically what we put in forefront of our considerations. Then the general statements of achievements, yes, if we look at market share gains, we believe that the market last year globally, in the truck and rail business, went down by roughly 10%. We see that the turnover, as you can see, we checked out, in order to compare apples with apples or comparable turnover, then went down by 8%, which suggests that in total, we won roughly 2% market share last year, and that obviously has been -- Knorr-Bremse has been overperforming the market there to such an extent. The higher part and higher share of that market share gains we see currently on the rail side. So there, the difference between what the market did and what Knorr-Bremse did in terms of going backwards in business volumes is -- the gap there is higher. But nevertheless, both divisions contributed to market share gains. Then there was a third question -- ah, yes, that is the ZF-WABCO combination of steering and braking. Yes, I would rather -- do not want too much talk about competitors. But on the other side, we feel very confident about our strategy that has been started and defined and then implemented a couple of years ago already where we, from a very strong braking position in the market, have been moving towards steering as well, therefore combining these 2 base technologies that are required to control the drive dynamics of both the trailers and the trucks as such. And the brake control that comes associated with that is a part where our major know-how and business relies. So we are, together with Continental that provides the sensors and the sensing systems, in a very positive situation that we as a combined team can address these markets in a very, very good way. How is the whole thing going to develop? And that's a point behind your question. They're going to be a systems approach where all individual parts have to -- will be bought by the OEMs, just stuck together as one system or will that sooner or later be something where the OEMs are going to divide and source the individual components on their own and just doing the integration themselves? That remains to be seen. But we as Knorr-Bremse, together with our partner, are certainly being prepared to follow and lead both directions as and when they arise.

[William Mackie, Head of Capital Goods Research]

One quick follow-up, if I may, please, Mr. Weber. In relation to the temporary cost savings, you mentioned twice that there was approximately EUR 60 million of savings COVID-related in RVS. Do you have a similar figure for CVS just so we can think about as the post-pandemic normalization unfolds, what sort of level of cost can be expected to come back in?

[Frank Markus Weber, Chief Financial Officer]

The starting point to the answer to your question goes back to our presentation this morning when we also talked about the EUR 160 million that we have implemented cost measures in the full year 2020 overall across the 2 divisions and the AG, so the central cost level of the group. EUR 160 million, out of that, EUR 95 million for the full year on the truck side and EUR 55 million roughly on the rail side and another roughly EUR 10 million on the headquarters side, let me put it this way. So if you then divide those EUR 55 million of rail into the quarters, you end up with the EUR 16 million you just mentioned. The respective figures -- figure for CVS is roughly EUR 24 million or, let's say, for CVS, and headquarter cost is EUR 24 million so that overall, we have roughly achieved EUR 40 million of cost savings in the fourth quarter, of which, at least -- I always said when it came down to the peak of our savings, which was at Q2 because we were really on the brakes, it was EUR 60 million in that quarter for the whole group. I always said I want to keep as a target some 25% of those savings that are the whole EUR 60 million, which are not fully sustainable, I want to keep them and take them somehow sustainable into the new year. So that would be roughly EUR 15 million. So I hope out of that EUR 40 million that we have seen in the fourth quarter, we can keep at least some EUR 15 million, maybe EUR 20 million even and have them sustainable then in the full year '21.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. I will now hand back to you.

[Andreas Spitzauer, Head of Investor Relations]

Okay. Thank you very much. If you have further questions, please call us, and we wish you all the best for this afternoon, and stay healthy and safe. Bye-bye.