Knorr Bremse AG

XETRA:KBX

Earnings Call Analysis

Knorr-Bremse sees strong performance and raises guidance

In the second quarter of 2024, Knorr-Bremse reported significant gains, including a 140 basis points rise in operating EBIT margin to 12.5%, boosted by efficiency measures and better pricing. Despite challenges in the truck market, their rail division exhibited robust performance. The company raised its 2024 guidance, projecting revenues of EUR 7.7-8 billion, an operating EBIT margin of 11.5-13%, and free cash flow between EUR 550-650 million. Order intake remained strong at EUR 2.1 billion, showcasing resilience against market headwinds.

Introduction and Key Highlights

The recent earnings call for Knorr-Bremse AG reflected a company experiencing remarkable progress and resilience, particularly in its rail division. CEO Marc Llistosella highlighted the company's strong performance despite the challenging market environment, emphasizing the success of their Boost 2026 program and maintaining a positive outlook for both the truck and rail divisions.

Financial Performance and Guidance

The company's order intake was impressive, reaching EUR 2.1 billion, with revenues amounting to over EUR 2 billion. This was achieved despite disposals and FX headwinds. The operating EBIT margin saw a significant increase to 12.5%, up by 140 basis points year-over-year. Free cash flow also showed strong improvement, reaching EUR 158 million, a fourfold increase from the previous year. For the full year 2024, Knorr-Bremse expects revenues between EUR 7.7 billion and EUR 8 billion, an operating EBIT margin between 11.5% and 13%, and free cash flow between EUR 550 million and EUR 650 million.

Divisional Performance

The Rail Vehicle Systems (RVS) division recorded an order intake of EUR 1.14 billion, with all regions contributing positively. The division's revenues topped EUR 1 billion, marking a 6% year-over-year increase. Notably, the aftermarket business in RVS accounted for 55% of revenues, significantly boosting profitability. The Commercial Vehicle Systems (CVS) division faced a 5% decline in order intake, primarily due to weaker markets in Europe and Asia Pacific. However, CVS managed to maintain nearly stable revenue levels, with strong performance in North America partially offsetting declines elsewhere.

Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives

For the rail division, Knorr-Bremse is optimistic about the future, supported by ongoing political will for greener mobility and robust demand for new rail vehicles and maintenance. Supply chain challenges persist, but are being managed through better planning and flexible sourcing. For the truck division, North America showed relatively stable production rates, while Europe is expected to see more significant declines. The company has prepared for market volatility with measures like workforce flexibility and strategic pricing. The Boost 2026 program continues to drive efficiency and profitability, with a target EBIT margin of over 14% by 2026.

Conclusion

Knorr-Bremse's recent performance demonstrated its ability to navigate challenging market conditions effectively. The company's strong order intake, improved margins, and robust cash flow generation underscore its resilient business model. With clear strategic initiatives and optimistic guidance for 2024, Knorr-Bremse is well-positioned for sustained growth and profitability.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Operator]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Knorr-Bremse AG conference call regarding the Q2 2024 results. [Operator Instructions]. Let me now turn the floor over to your host, Andreas Spitzauer, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Andreas Spitzauer, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon as well as good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I hope all of you are very fine. My name is Andreas Spitzauer, Head of Investor Relations. I would welcome you to Knorr-Bremse's conference call for the second quarter results of 2024. Today, Marc Llistosella, our CEO; and Frank Weber, our CFO, will present the results of Knorr-Bremse, followed by a Q&A session. The call will be recorded and is available on our homepage www. [indiscernible] in the Investor Relations section. You can find today's presentation and later a transcript of the call. It is now my pleasure to hand over to Marc Llistosella. Please go ahead.

[Marc Llistosella Y Bischoff, executive]

Thank you, Andreas. Thank you. Welcome, everyone, to our call regarding the financial results for the second quarter of 2024. Let's start with Chart #2. As usual, I will start with an overview of the highlights before Frank dives into the details, followed by a Q&A session.

Let's take a look at the key messages from today on Chart 2. Number one, no burn is outperformance and resilience since the beginning of the year. have been remarkable for rail. We continue to see strong demand across all regions and a positive margin trend. Despite the weakening truck market, CVS [ Roy ] latest results confirm its remarkable robustness which is an integral part of its business model. Number two, last year, I presented our Boost 2026 program for the first time, 1 year later. I'm very pleased to inform you as we are fully on track. Later, I will provide more details on the measures we have successfully implemented so far. Number three, with the contract extension of [ Benches ] [indiscernible] as a member of the Executive Board, the Supervisory Board of Knorr-Bremse has ensured further continuity in the leadership team. [ Bernd ] is responsible for the Truck division, and he will continuously drive the success of it entire Executive Board team works extremely well together. The situation that Knorr-Bremse did not have always in the past, and which helps us to achieve our goals quickly for. Last not least, we raised our guidance for 2024 last week due to our strong performance in both divisions in the second quarter and the positive outlook for the rail division in the second half of the year 2024.

So let's please move to Chart #3. The progress of our growth and efficiency program Boost 2026, which we launched 1 year ago at the strategy update, it's very satisfactory. The most important goal is to return programs to its former strength and beyond. That is why we are not only focusing on cost and efficiency, but also want to further boost our profitable growth. The basis of this is to secure a global technology, market leadership positioning in the rail and shock market. At the same time, we are striving to expand into new growth areas in existing and new markets. To achieve these ambitious goals, we have set up 150 specialized working groups around the world. These teams are strategically located across the different regions and consists of experts from various disciplines to optimize processes and structures. Today, we would like to focus on some of them. We'll move on increased capacity in best-cost countries, KB has been successfully decentralized for decades. This means that local management is close to our customers and has a very high level of P&L responsibility. For the next phase of efficient growth, we are now systematically expanding our production sites close to our customers like Poland, Mexico and India as a few examples to be named. Number two, aftermarket. Knorr-Bremse is a vulnerable company compared to our expectations at the beginning of the corporation. The company has developed better and the integration into KB has gone extremely well. What are our next steps and goals. Today, roughly 15,000 diagnostic tools from Knorr-Bremse in workshops worldwide. We would like to leverage these uni-gate based. To further increase the number of applications here. And second, Knorr-Bremse lead in Europe, we see good growth opportunities around US and other markets too. Number three, in order to reduce complexity in the way the cost will decrease the number of legal entities further, beginning of 2023, the number was at 126. Now at the end of 2024, we expect 100 million. Number four, in an increasingly connected and competitive business world, optimizing processes is crucial to success meet these requirements, we are expanding our global business services platform. centralizing functions, such as finance, accounting, human resources or procurement, we can leverage economies of scale and significantly reduce our operating costs. At the same time, we want to be flexible and take local conditions into account. That is why we are currently focusing on our [ CVS Hub ] in Czechoslovakia -- Czechia for Europe, India, as our global hub and for the APAC region, Mexico for North America as well as so too for China.

Coming to Chart #4. Part of Boost is brownfield and our efficiency program, which targets business units with total revenues of EUR 1.4 billion. In brownfield, there are fixed pressures included, which are already defined and mostly implemented for entities, which combine the revenues of roughly EUR 700 million. Compared to the EBIT margin in 2022, we expect these measures to lead to a margin increase by 70 basis points by 2026, [indiscernible] as part of the overall 200 basis points improvement, which also includes solid initiatives. For CVS itself, Boost material includes structural material cost levels such as value and analysis, well engineering, international realignment of the supplier base and an optimized supply chain management content. Global responsibilities, the realignment of the CVS organization will lead to simplification of interfaces and results is to streamline and accelerate key processes. In addition, accountability will be insured for a clear global definition of results [indiscernible] usability and interfaces R&D optimization, CES, strength and USPs are based on innovative and customer products, we want to maintain this. But at the same time, we want to reduce retail specialties more consistently terminate and successful projects and achieve our growth targets with our existing R&D team of today for RVS. And we still see potential for improvement in the areas of inventory, pricing and China, especially in China, cost reduction and the slightly declining OE business longer term and further expansion of the growing aftermarket business. As previously mentioned, we want to further expand production footprint in countries with a good cost structure and no further expand or even reduce the number of employees in high-cost countries. We will take restructuring measures in business areas where we want to benefit from growth opportunities in the long term, and we do not get fully our target. We do not expect high one-off costs, but rather want to make use of staff fluctuations.

Chart #5. Let me explain the current status of our solid program in more detail on Chart 4. And then in Chart 4. Overall we want to lift the EBIT margin additionally by around 130 basis points until 2026. This together with the 70 and combining to 200. This is what we said, this is what we do. That's the difference with promises. We don't promise. We just execute we say. That's something which I would like to highlight before we speak about something like promises. We have finally identified and decided all the business units that we want to sell their combined annual revenues amount to slightly more than EUR 700 million. The first basket mainly includes business from the truck edition and the second base is more focused on rail. Following the sale of [ Keeper ] and Safety Direct, two further companies are in the sales process. Currently, one of them is GT emission systems, which we informed you over the last 2 days. They are still the following units to be installed and larger in terms of revenues, which entail a longer cartoons. Accordingly, we expect the closing to take place more towards 2025, and even '26. Overall, we are fully on track with our sales program and looking forward to see more execution in the next years to come.

Chart #6. Let's have a quick look on the current market environment. Here, we see rail in Europe and North America has experienced a solid growth in both OE and aftermarket currently and going forward. Growth in Europe is supported by the unbroken political build to make the mobility of the future greener and more sustainable. For example, there is a significant push to replace obsolete fleets, which will further fuel demand for new rail vehicles and related infrastructure. China rail market is performing well this year, particularly in the aftermarket, which benefits from last year's pushouts of maintenance topics. Additionally, the high-speed segment continues to receive decent support from the government because leadership levels of today are above the pre-corona. Globally, OEMs are reporting high order books, indicating a robust demand for new rail vehicles and equipment, the pricing of new contracts in rail remains favorable, which is a clear margin driver for our years. The rail industry continue faces supply chain challenges, particularly at the level of small specialist suppliers in the industry. As you know, we have hundreds of them. These issues can cause delays and increase cost but efforts are ongoing to mitigate these disruptions through better planning and flexible sourcing. But as you know, for us, the delivery identity is key of our success. So this is always to keep in balance with our net working capital. The total number of passengers in trains in the full year 2024 is expected to be higher versus last year. So it has to be expected to be a very positive trend also in the year 2024. In the second quarter '24, the reduction rate, especially in Europe remained significantly lower year-over-year, while the price trend for CVS was supported. In North America and China production rates were only declining slightly or signing. Full year level, we believe the decrease of production rates in Europe, CVS will exceed 10% over the year. In North America, the potential decrease should be lower than in Europe, but still negative, slightly negative. The market in turn develops promising but mix, including growth momentum driven by exports, especially into Southeast Asia region, but a weak domestic market. At the same time, we observed the development in the truck market closely, and we've been able to react quickly to all challenges necessary, especially in euros.

Going to Chart #7. Let's move to an overview of our first half year KPIs for 2024. Almost all major financials moved higher year-over-year. Most important for me and us was that the operating EBIT margin is up by 107 basis points to 12.3% in the first half 2024, well supported by an boost efficiency program. You remember, we spoke about EBIT margin, which is exceeding 14% by 2026. We started at 11.1% in 2023. And now we are half prove with 12.3%. So it looks very, very promising that we will reach what we said. In addition, order book remains on a very high level with EUR 6.85 billion. It provides good visibility and confidence for the quarters ahead regarding utilization. [indiscernible] is always included people because that was last year included free cash flow for the first half of the year has reached EUR 64 million positive, a strong improvement versus last year where we still were at this time of the year negative.

I would like now to hand over to Frank for more financial insights regarding our second quarter.

[Frank Weber, executive]

Thank you, Mark, and welcome also from my side. Let's turn to Chart 8 to discuss the financial highlights of our second quarter. Our order intake was again very strong with EUR 2.1 billion. I guess this is a remarkable achievement by both divisions taking into account the tougher market environment in many business segments of cap good companies also the challenging truck production rates currently. Book-to-bill on group level was respectively at 1.06 in revenues amounted to over EUR 2 billion despite disposals and FX headwinds. Rail saw a significant increase of more than 10% organically, while truck faced a decrease of 5%.

The first operating highlight of the quarter was clearly the development of our profitability. Operating EBIT margin benefited mainly from good operating leverage in RVS, our efficiency measures and better pricing. Accordingly, the margin rose to 12.5%, which is 140 basis points higher than a year ago. Both divisions contributed to this profitability improvement. As a result, we increased the upper end of our margin guidance. The second highlight was the free cash flow, which quadrupled year-over-year and came in at EUR 158 million. With that, we were able to break even already in the second quarter of the year, achieving EUR 64 million in the first half of '24. Please keep in mind that this development was expected and follows the typical pattern for us throughout the year. Quarter 1 is always the weakest and quarter 4, the strongest quarter in terms of our free cash flow generation.

Let's move to Chart 9. CapEx in the past quarter amounted to EUR 65 million, representing 3.2% of our revenues. It was lower in absolute terms and on a similar level in relation to revenues year-over-year. In the upcoming quarters, the ratio should increase again, and we expect on a full year basis, a CapEx-to-revenue ratio of 5% to 6%. Net working capital was stable year-over-year, reaching EUR 1.55 billion despite the significant revenue increase. Therefore, and more importantly, the positive trend of improved scope of days in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter continued. This shows our efficiency measures are taking effect, and the turnaround in net working capital is continuously successful. We take action across all working capital areas in particularly -- in particular, further reducing inventories, especially safety stock via our optimization program collect in order to increase our capital efficiency further. Our free cash flow, as mentioned before, was EUR 158 million. It significantly improved versus prior year level, driven by better earnings the success of our collect program as well as less capital expenditures. As mentioned in the past already, we seek to improve the cash generation also throughout the year within the quarters in order to derisk our quarter four cash generation necessities. With these further intra-year improvements, we feel very confident to reach our free cash flow target also for this year. As a result of improved EBIT and the improved capital efficiency in the company, our ROCE increased significantly from 16.6% to 20.2% with a ROCE of more than 20%, we are back in the range we have set ourselves as a target.

Let's take a closer look at the divisional performance is in quarter 2, starting with RVS on Chart 10. In terms of order intake, RVS recorded EUR 1.14 billion in the past quarter. It was particularly interesting that all regions contributed to this positive development. a clear sign that the good demand in the rail segment is based on many pillars. We expect that RVS should achieve the comparable -- should achieve a comparable level of order intake in the second half of this year as in the first half. Growth was particularly strong in the Asia Pacific region. Your order intake growth in India, in the OE segment and in China in the aftermarket segment. Book-to-bill ratio stood at 1.12 in the second quarter. which means RVS posted the 11th quarter in a row, a book-to-bill ratio of above 1. For the second half of the year, we expect the book-to-bill ratio to stay above 1 as well. Order backlog remains at a high level, reaching EUR 4.9 billion. In organic terms, [indiscernible], excluding [ Kipa ], in the second quarter of '23, the order backlog rose by 8% year-over-year. The high order backlog provides a strong basis for the second half of the year and beyond.

Let's move to Chart 11. Revenues of RVS in quarter 2 amounted to more than EUR 1 billion, which represents a new level -- new record level in that quarter. It increased by 6% year-over-year. Organically, the division even lifted its revenues by 11%. We rather flattish OE business overall was strongly outperformed by a strong aftermarket business. As a result, our aftermarket revenue share in RVS even reached 55% in the second quarter. From a regional point of view, our revenue growth was remarkable in the Asia Pacific region and in North America. Europe kept a very good level year-over-year. Operating EBIT margin recorded an increase of 90 basis points to 15.6%, driven by operating leverage. Improved pricing of new contracts and a loan by operating leverage, improved pricing of new contracts and the lower share of legacy business further supported this development. In addition, a positive revenue mix driven by a higher aftermarket share and first benefits of the boost efficiency measures impacted the operating EBIT margin positively as well. In the current quarter, profitability of RVS should stay at this good level.

Let's continue with our Truck division on Chart 12. Order intake in CVS amounted to almost EUR 1 billion, a decline of roughly 5% compared to last year. The positive order development in North America was not able to counterbalance the weaker market situation in Europe and a bit in Asia Pacific. In particular, the trend of incoming orders in Europe was negative, which had already been indicated in the recent communication from our OEM customers and needless to say, also expected from us starting in Q2. Nevertheless, book-to-bill reached almost EUR 1 billion, almost EUR 1 billion in the past quarter, a stable development compared with the last year. order book with almost EUR 2 billion at the end of June remains on a high level and only marks a small decline year-over-year so far. Development in the second half of '24 are expected to face considerable challenges in North America and Europe, in particular. Although the market in North America is holding up better than in Europe. Our expectations indicate that the truck production rates are expected to fall significantly in the second half of '24 year-over-year. We assume that the book-to-bill ratio will be below 1 on a full year basis. However, we are very well prepared to overcome these challenges. In general, the flexibility in our facilities is high. For example, temp workers represent 10% to 15% of our workforce in the production plants in Europe, which we can lay off quickly, if necessary. Secondly, all major plants in Europe are prepared and ready to introduce short-term work within weeks, price increases, which we achieved are fixed and will counterbalance shortfalls of volume. Aftermarket business contributes more than 30% of revenues in Europe and in North America, which is also greatly supporting our resilience. Last but not least, our Boost program targets also structural costs, which already mitigated some of the negative impacts. Please bear in mind that we are not in a crisis mode, but we are very well prepared for a likely negative market development as expected in the months ahead.

Let's move to Chart 13. For the second quarter, we noted for CVS, only a slight decrease in overall revenues. The division posted revenues of almost EUR 1 billion, showing a decline of only 5% year-over-year. CVS achieved even slightly rising revenues in the aftermarket business in the region. OE revenue, on the other hand, declined slightly in all regions, except for South America. In the European market, our revenues have experienced an 8% decline due to the weak demand in both the truck and the trailer segment. alone, the truck production rate declined by 18% at the same time. Despite these challenges, the Aftermarket segment was solid and delivered 35% of total revenues in the region. In the quarters ahead, we expect that aftermarket should provide some stability to the region's overall performance and that our outperformance of the market via content per vehicle continues and supports our resilience of the company. Operating EBIT of our CVS division amounted to EUR 112 million in the past quarter, up 14% year-over-year. As a result, the operating EBIT margin improved by 190 basis points from 9.3% to 11.2%. The remarkable increase of our EBIT margin is based on a combination of achieved prices a higher aftermarket share and positive effects from our efficiency measures. These targeted measures have supported our profitability, and we are best positioned for the second half of the year in which we expect an EBIT margin of only moderately less than 10%. With that, I hand over to Mark again.

[Marc Llistosella Y Bischoff, executive]

Thank you, Frank. In the last year, we have made remarkable progress of the invitational of our Boost program, which has led to this significant turnaround. These developments are a clear proof that we are on track to achieve an EBIT margin of more than 14% latest in full year 2026. We always said it will not be a back-end loaded and rather a linear development towards 2026 despite the anticipated weakness in the truck market so far, fully delivered on that part. Our positive development in the rail division, which is reflected in significantly improved margins with particularly remarkable, we are all positioned well positioned in the rail market, and we are very, very confident that RVS has achieved its share of profitability, respectively, even more than 16.5. From a current point of view and due to the weak truck production rates in Europe, the margin target of about 13.5% in full year 2026 and the truck division was more ambitious, but we have enough more cost measures in our toolbox and growth message and a strong market position and plenty of ideas to drive the performance to CVS and [indiscernible] to achieve the margin target.

On Chart #15, our last one, we will again speak about the guidance I want to finish with the confirmation of our risk guidance for 2024 in charge, 15 major assumptions are unchanged and our line on the right side of this chart. For full year 2024, we expect revenues of EUR 7.7 billion to EUR 8 billion, and operating EBIT margin of 11.5% to 13% and a free cash flow between EUR 550 million and EUR 650 million of fuels. We expect the closing of the signaling deal end of August, which is part of the green field and best to our knowledge, there are no obstacles to finalize the deal. After the closing latest with the release of our quarter 3 '24 results, we will integrate this new assets in our guidance for the full year 2024. Revenues of KB Group will be up by roughly EUR 100 million, and the EBIT margin will increase marginally this year as a minor integration cost will be required. Overall, this is the first step of our greenfield strategy, and it looks extremely promising. And thanks for your attention so far. Frank and I look forward to your questions now.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question goes to Sven Weier from UBS.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

The first one is regarding the updated strategy program now that you rightly said 1 year into it. I was just wondering what do you think -- where the things that have surprised you positively in terms of the things that you have achieved? What are maybe the things where you think it's a bit lagging behind. And then also when you talk about going back to old strength and especially beyond what are maybe some of the things that have encouraged you more in the ones [indiscernible], that's the first one.

[Frank Weber, executive]

Let me maybe start with that, and then Mark dives I think what surprised me the most is the real intrinsic eagerness of the whole organization to basically engage with the Boost strategy program. It was in the past years, not seldom the case that not every part of the organization was really behind some directions being called out going forward, but the whole organization on rail as well as on the truck side is fully behind the program. And that's what you ultimately need as a buy-in for such a strategic program, and that was something that I was very pleased to see and maybe on some more contents what you like and so far and what you didn't like Mark leave it up to the CEO. I think give some insights.

[Marc Llistosella Y Bischoff, executive]

Yes, what is obvious, the business concept is absolutely a lot solid. The products and the market positioning are better than I expected. Not only in rail, but also in truck. I think we have a lot of areas for improvement, which surprised me a little bit, especially in areas where I didn't expect it. When it comes to standardization of processes when it comes to standardization of product development processes when it comes to R&D allocation of ours. Here, I am surprised that we have this kind of room for improvement, which I didn't expect, where I am negative I wouldn't say there's very, very few negatives. I was surprised how many units we have here, how connected or disconnected some of the units are to each other. I think the good message for you as an investor and an analyst is that by having found this kind of, let me say, surprises, it is -- we can help ourselves. And as one of your colleagues just sell the self-healing and the self-helping potential of the company seems to work. And the good thing is, yes, we -- this is not rocket science what we can do here. There's a lot of improvements to be easily done. And it's just a question of consequence and also of pressure to address it in a way that the people are really picking up this topic. So long short story to a long story short, the company is a very, very good company, but there's a lot of potential to make the company even better. So that means without any fancy things and finding measures, we can get on a much better level than I expected. So that's in a very short sentence. And at the beginning of last year, I was told that 14 should be our target. And I was saying, okay, let's do it. I must say the 14 is a very low target for such a company because with the internal potential already, we can reach that.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

Yes. It sounds like an intermediate goal. The second question is just following up on, Frank, what you said on order intake, rail, appreciated on that. Just wondering given the obvious market concern around the truck market, how you kind of had exit rates in June entry rate in July on order intake. I mean do you see kind of a cliff there or is this reducing in a relatively orderly fashion what you see there?

[Frank Weber, executive]

The good news, I would say, and thanks for that question is that we don't see you, Cliff. We have even seen, but there's also a bit specific in North America. We have even seen an increase of order intake compared to the same time around last year. you can argue now that North America last year in the second quarter was a bit weaker after very good order intake quarter 1. We see a solid development, I would say, given the market situation we are in. Keep in mind that the market itself in the second quarter was 18% down in truck production rate compared to last year in Europe. And it was nearly 10% down in North America. Given that market situation, we see a rather stable kind of development going forward in terms of order intake.

[Operator]

And the next question goes to Akash Gupta from JPMorgan.

[Akash Gupta, analyst]

Yes. I got two as well. The first one is on CVS. And again, you had very good margin reaching at highest level in almost 12 quarters and you are indicating some decline in the market driven by the trust production rates. So when you look at your commentary, we get that maybe we will see higher level of decline in Europe than elsewhere. A question I have is on the regional profitability of the segment. Is it fair to say that European business could be more profitable than other businesses, which is why there is a mechanical effect on margin coming from lower European volumes? Because when I look at your commentary on cost optimization, you sound quite update in your ability to reduce cost in line with market volumes. So any color on European profitability would be the first one to start with.

[Frank Weber, executive]

First of all, Europe for us is also the center of all is, for us, the technology hub and the sense of all R&D activities across the globe and not all R&D so to say, is allocated to all the entities around the world because a lot of the fundamental development stuff stays within the region. That's why it's not Europe for us in truck is not China or Asia Pacific in rail, yes, with a very accretive margin. You should rather see the European margin or profitability level on a global basis on the average level. So it's not a very accretive region that we are having here. It's more on the -- in the midfield, so to say, and then the group average the Truck division. That's how I see it. And that's why basically a downswing didn't over doesn't overwhelmingly hit us on the bottom line side. Now it does hit us, of course, yes, but not overwhelmingly.

[Akash Gupta, analyst]

And my second one is on RVS. What you can tell us about where are we on the -- and coming from the orders you received before the inflation shock? And how should we think about the phasing of the remaining legacy backlog between second half of this year and 2025?

[Frank Weber, executive]

Thanks for the question. We have since quite some time, I talked about it. It's as we always said, EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million that we expect these revenues out of these legacy this year, I would say, of course, given, so to say, the time line of these contracts, we see a bit more of that in the first half of the year already a bit less in the second half of this year. So if you take EUR 550 million is an average between 500 and 600 million, so I assume maybe around EUR 300 million more in the first half year already happened. And second half year, less than EUR 300 million. And then next year, we assume some EUR 200 million to EUR 300 million in '25. So only half of that what we have been suffering then in the year '24 to occur next year. But half year 2, a bit less than in half year 1. That's what we assume.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from Gael de-Bray from Deutsche Bank.

[Gael de-Bray, analyst]

I have two questions, too. The first one is on the 70 bps targeted organic margin improvement. Maybe that be useful to understand how much is expected to come from CVS and how much from RVS what's been the level of achievement so far in 2024. That's question #1. And then the second question is about RVS specifically. I think I remember in the past, you had previously indicated that orders of EUR 1 billion or more was not to be expected every quarter. Now it seems that you're guiding for about EUR 1.1 billion for both Q3 and Q4, at least on average, so is it fair that you've upgraded your views on the well market.

[Frank Weber, executive]

For the two questions. Number one, it's rather simple, but that's the matter of the pure facts behind it. The 70 bps on the fixed program is half-half. It's both RVS and CVS. It's on the CVS side, I would say, a bit more back-end loaded because one entity, bigger entity on the CVS side needs a bit of carve-out preparation. I think that Mark already indicated, so that's a bit coming later. That also explains a bit the answer that out of that 70 bps, I would say we are a bit behind the linear purely linear past -- but on the other hand, I think we have on the other 200 bps of operating leverage and other efficiency measures, a very well track record so far over the last 1 year or 1.5 years. So we are very well in line with the linear approach overall to improve our margin from 11% to 14%. As you can see in the program last year in June where we stood at 11%. Now we're at 12.5%, which is already I think, quite an achievement, which is a bit ahead of the linear curve overall. Second question is not an increase of our expectation for the RVS development. We expected a strong development of our division there. I think it's more the usual warning to everybody kind of saying it's a project business that we have with rail. We have big projects at times and not every quarter is developing rather linearly like in a product business, that's why we are usually saying don't draw conclusion from the first quarter to the second and from the second automatically to the third, but as the sheer perspective goes on the second half of the year, we are pretty comfortable that we will not have this big ups and downs, seeing the detailed projects that are sitting in our books. So they have to distinguish both the general, so to say, expression mark of us usually behind the project business, and that is not a linear kind of situation, it might go up and down a bit. And the other thing is the concrete situation that we are in now in '24 and that, so to say, indicates a good level of order intake to come also in the second quarter.

[Operator]

And the next question goes to Ben [ Uglow ] from [ Ox ] Cap Analytics. .

Maybe he is muted on his telephone.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. I had a couple. The first is just very high level. on the sort of macro climate and the customer conversations that you're having if I listen to what companies have been saying in the last week or so, in reporting, we're hearing a lot of companies talk about customer hesitation projects being pushed out. political uncertainty, particularly in the U.S., but I think it is broader than that. And I guess my first question here is, are you sensing or have you sensed any of that at all in the last couple of months, i.e., in terms of talking to your CVS or RVS customers, do you -- is there any change in tone? Or is it still very much business as usual?

[Marc Llistosella Y Bischoff, executive]

Okay. Besides the extreme enlightenment of the German government, though customers are relatively stable. So we don't see we see, especially in the business of rail, we see a certain form of indifference to what is going on. And in terms of truck, there is laser trends. And after we have seen a very good truck market in Europe for the last 3, 4 years, it's more than logic and it is more related to the age of the fleet and on the street, then whether some politicians or some people mind to say how it's going, how it's not going. So in rail, we see a very, very limited impact on the actual politics because the major trends are still valid and nobody's question is in trucks, we are seeing, especially in Europe and America that the markets are very, very sensitive more to the supply chain issues than to anything else. And when it comes to politics. Beside, as I said, the excitement about the German government, there's very, very little new marks on this topic.

[Unknown Analyst]

It sounds fair to say that people aren't if not, like, you've suddenly got a call from the division to say everybody is applying the brakes or not to coin the fund, but nothing like that. There hasn't been a sudden stop in the last month or so.

[Frank Weber, executive]

Absolutely not. Absolutely not.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Very clear. And my second one is -- congratulations on some of these margins. On the truck side, there are a lot of moving parts, if I think about the second half between volume price aftermarket rate I guess my question for Frank is, am I correct to assume that there is no -- even with volume being weaker, there's no reasonable scenario where the CVS margin goes back to the first half '20 or back or below the 9% levels that we were seeing in the first half of last year, i.e., that you are that sort of downside, if you like is Cat?

[Frank Weber, executive]

I don't think that there are so many ingredients, so to say, volatile for the second half of the year. I basically only see volume and the volume is driven by the market. And even there, I basically see only, so to say, Europe and maybe North America as kind of volatile, so to say, with that given and the conversions that you know from us, kind of given. That's why I said moderately below 10. This is what could be expected, not more. This is our belief if it comes to a catastrophe in the market can never rule out that also maybe 9-ish would be then a number, but that's not something that we anticipate at this point in time. So in a nutshell, I would say, yes, you are right. I would see something moderately below 10. If the market deterioration comes as we expect it to be it's getting significantly worse, then of course, it's a different story than we have to reevaluate. But that's nothing we plan for.

[Operator]

And the last question is a follow-up, and it goes to Akash Gupta again.

[Akash Gupta, analyst]

I have one follow-up on the guidance. You increased the margin guidance topping by 50 basis points. And when we look at your first half operating margin, 12.3%, it is roughly in line with the midpoint of the new margin guidance or maybe slightly add. And when we look at your second half margin commentary, you are implying CVS margins below 10%, moderately below 10%. So does it mean that if you have to hit the top end of the guidance of around 13%, we are going to see a substantial recovery in RVS. Or maybe if you can explain the math on what can take you to more like 13% margin for the year.

[Frank Weber, executive]

No, you are not too wrong in that regard, absolutely that is also mathematically particular. So the reason why we have also increased the upper end is because of the good rail performance. So to say, and if it wouldn't be so to say, the uncertainties of the truck market in Europe then we would have maybe even lifted the corridor, the given corridor that we had so far, but we wanted to be on the safe side. Just referring to the question from Ben. So if anything comes weaker than expected in truck in Europe in the market. That's why we have left the lower end, so to say, at the level where it was. But it's clear, yes, to what you asked, rail should be performing better going forward.

[Operator]

And we have a last question from Holger Schmidt from DC Bank. .

[Holger Schmidt, analyst]

I have two. You mentioned the significant decline truck production rates in Europe? And to what extent do you expect this to impact your price setting in CVS going forward? That's the first question. And the second question, moving to North America. Against the background of the new EPA emission regulation, I expect it to come in 2027. How do you think about the likely prebuying in North America? What kind of impact could it have? And when do you expect it to start?

[Frank Weber, executive]

I'll take the first and then Mark and myself will figure out to take the second. It's clear, so to say, that in the market that is booming the flexibility to accept certain price levels is potentially higher than the market that is going downwards. We have made our negotiations in 2022 and in '23 with two big waves with all the customers. We have fixed the prices going forward. We expect them to be sustainable the right of each and every customer, so to say, to come back at a certain point in time to the [indiscernible] table, we expect that this will happen in the future. It's nothing that is on the table at this point in time. We are prepared for that because we also suffered in the past, and that's why we have risen the prices. We have not risen the prices because we were -- we felt like this, but it has a clear reason, and that's why you can expect from us that we will be very, very, very hesitant if anybody is looking at our door in that regard. Second question, maybe I start, even though Mark is technically more advanced in potentially answering this question. We do expect that EPA regulations that we house regulations kicking in '27 in North America should lead to a prebuy effect -- we expect that to come in '26, earliest maybe in the -- towards the end of in a noticeable manner that the industry can feel not earlier, unfortunately, not earlier, but that's the way we think that the fleets need to, so to say, prepare over at least 12 to 16, 18 months. to bring their fleets up to speed, but not more, not earlier.

[Andreas Spitzauer, executive]

Then thank you very much for your participation. We wish you a great summer time. I hope you'll be on vacation, have a good time there. When you come back in September, we will participate at the InnoTrans and at the IRI trucks. So if you want to meet us there, reach out and have a good time. Thanks a lot.

[Marc Llistosella Y Bischoff, executive]

Yes. See you. Thank you.