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Scout24 SE
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of Scout24 AG. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. [Operator Instructions] May I now hand you over to Christian Gisy, who will lead you for this conference. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you very much, and good day, everybody, and thank you for joining our Q1 analyst call and investors call. Today, we will start on Page 3 with a recap. Obviously, you know that the IFRS changes are occurring quite substantially in 2018. And to be very clear and transparent to you, and to be -- put you also in a position to basically model this in, we have decided to basically start with that piece. Obviously, IFRS 15 is mandatory starting January '18. And we are, in this case, restating our full year 2017 financials as well because of IFRS 15. This results in a decrease in revenues of EUR 7.2 million in 2017 and an expected decrease in revenues of about EUR 8 million in 2018. As you know, IFRS 16 is mandatory as of January '19. However, we are an earlier adopter because we don't want to have every year a change in IFRS basically changing our number set. That's the reason why we have decided to be an early adopter here as well. This means we are not restating 2017 financials in this case, but we're adjusting our according -- our accounting in 2018 accordingly. The results of IFRS 16 is a positive EUR 6 million in 2018. Pro forma restatement, if we do it to be on a like-for-like basis, would lead to a similar amount. IFRS 9 is mandatory as of January 2018. There is no impact on P&L, but we see a EUR 3.9 million decrease in trade receivables for the opening balance sheet of 2018. This basically is a recap and gives you a highlight summary. Obviously, all the numbers that I would present you in due course will be with the restated element as well. So if we turn to Page 2 -- Page 4 and go to the key financial highlights of Q1. We see that we have been able to deliver a strong organic revenue growth of about 10% to EUR 123 million group revenues as of the end of Q1 2018. Profitability has gone up by 13%. And if we do -- if we would look on a like-for-like basis, it would have gone up by 10%. Obviously, the things that are in bracket and are highlighted with the square that is interrupted is basically the like-for-like comparison. So basically, the margin this year of 52% equals a like-for-like margin of 52% last year. On the cash contribution side, we see an increase of 6%. We are showing an 88% cash conversion as at -- of end Q1 2018, which is obviously impacted by IFRS changes. It usually would have been at 94% on a like-for-like basis. We turn the page, and we move on to ImmobilienScout24, which is our platform for continued growth. And we have shown growth. As you see, Q1 2017 towards Q1 2018 has grown revenues by 6%. EBITDA has gone up by 4%. On a like-for-like basis, it has gone up by 2%, obviously with a slight margin decrease. The margin decrease is mainly attributable to timing issues, which have to deal with marketing effect. And we'll see that on the group P&L later on. To give you a bit more of sense to ImmobilienScout24 on Page 6, obviously, the product that is most relevant to us because that's where we see the growth coming in 2018, 2019 and going forward. Obviously, the VIA product is providing value to our partners' businesses. And I'd like to remind you now what is inside of the VIA product set. We have obviously 3 different elements that are included, given our solution sales approach, which we want to support our customers in running their business. The one is obviously the marketing of the existing objects, which is called -- which is our premium listing products, like the showcase, the premium and/or the top product, which offers obviously an enhanced listing position as well as additional premium features like bigger and more pictures. And we'll take and we'll tackle also [indiscernible]. It also helps obviously to build brand and reputation. Hence, it obviously is driven to help our customers to increase their stock and market share. And therefore, we introduced last year our realtor lead engine, where we qualify homeowner leads and forward them to our customers. Our product, VIA product solutions currently have a share of 29% of total IS24 revenues. This 29% is delivered on the premium listing products, is attributable to the media display advertising products and is also relevant for acquisition products. If you remember, we have been talking in the past of a EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million run rate, which in this case would only apply to the premium listing product if we would look on it on a yearly comparable. The 29%, again, is relevant for premium listing product, for media display and for the so-called acquisition product. In order to drive VIA and to introduce our customers to VIA, we do not heavily discount VIA products. If we grant a discount in a [ binding ] contract, the discount is usually given on the membership. That's reason why, and if you basically -- customers cancel VIA, the discount is then no longer applied to the VIA product -- no longer apply obviously to the membership contract, excuse me. So this is basically the relevance for VIA in the first quarter of 2018. AutoScout is continuing to deliver on its growth potential. Obviously, it's continuing on its growth track with 16% on a yearly comparison. It has grown EBITDA by 28% on a yearly comparison, and on a like-for-like basis, it would have been 25%. Dealers, especially in the core European countries, are fueled by a successful price increase campaign and the gradual introduction of the 360-degree product in European countries. We have just introduced it in Belgium. It is about to be introduced in Italy, and we'll continue to introduce it later in the year in Holland. Obviously, Germany has already seen the introduction of the product, and it grew quite nicely across the first quarter. OEMs and other revenues showed a solid start into the year, and we are here again confident to reach our guidance. Obviously, the operating EBITDA margin is well on track and showing a very strong 45% margin as of Q1 -- as end of Q1 2018. Page 8 depicts basically the value-added production solutions that we have implemented in AutoScout. This is not called VIA. In this case, this is called MIA as a differentiator. Here you can see that 19% of our overall revenues as of total AS24 revenues in Q1 are coming -- 19% are coming out of those value-added product solutions. This is something that we have seen already across the years, and which is steadily growing, and which would continue to grow with the 360-degree product that we have lately introduced into the markets. Obviously, the media display product will also help, like on the real estate side, will help dealers to increase reach and their brand awareness against their competitors. Consumer services is on its way to become a EUR 100-and-plus million business. It grew in the first quarter by 13%, and increased margin by 8% and realizing a margin of 32%, which is slightly below last year on a like-for-like basis, which again has to do with timing of marketing spendings. And we'll see that again later in the P&L of the group. Revenue with finance partners went up with 11.2%. And even third-party display revenues, that were quite weak in the course of 2017, grew by 5.2% and are, therefore, well on track to deliver on our guidance. Obviously, the main elements of growth in the first quarter is attributable to our so-called services revenues with our premium membership product, which grew by 22.5%. As you can see, the direct consumer monetization on the right-hand side of Page 10, and that's where the 22.2 -- 22.5% profit was coming from, is exactly coming out of this direct consumer monetization. We have been able to increase our paying subscribers currently to 54,000, which you can remember that that's from the Capital Markets Day. At that point in time, we were at 17,000, which gives you an impression of how successful the product is and how the growth rate is around it. Obviously, on the finance side, the most important product throughout this year is bringing the car financing to the next level. And we have just recently launched an MVP to make sure that this part of the business will start to grow in '18 and will especially deliver growth in '19 going forward. If we go on to the ordinary operating cost side of the business. Revenues obviously have increased by 10%. The own work capitalized has increased again by roughly 2.1%, which has to do with a change in the methodology of accounting, mostly on the AutoScout side. Personnel has increased quite substantially by roughly 10%, which is mostly an increase of 8% in own staff costs, and obviously also partially due to a change in the methodology of accounting in the area of external labor, which then implies a change in the own work capitalized. But as we said already, the number of FTEs in Q1 is about 10% also higher than in 2017. That's what leads to that increase, which will obviously normalize across the year. Marketing, online and offline, there we see spending to support mainly our realtor lead engine and the premium membership, and is for timing considerations. And that's the reason why we have increased this on a Q -- on a quarterly comparison. IT remains quite stable. And other costs is mainly decreasing because of the IFRS 16 effect, which is to the [ right of the ] leasing of assets. Overall, our total operating costs increased by 6.6% and delivered a margin of 51.6% on an ordinary operating EBITDA level. Below EBITDA items, nonoperating items are EUR 2.9 million. Those are including EUR 1.6 million of external income for the sale of trademark of JobScout24 Switzerland, which happened to happen in the first quarter of 2018, which was a positive effect. We have negative effect out of the including expenses of the share-based compensation and PMI-related activities as well as EUR 0.7 million for reorganization and EUR 0.4 million of the office relocation in Munich. D&A is -- depreciation and amortization is going up and includes EUR 1.5 million of depreciation resulting from the adoption of IFRS 16. So the decrease in, let's say, other cost that increases the ordinary operating EBITDA margin has obviously an impact on the EBIT as it increases the D&A. Earnings before taxes are going up by roughly EUR 4 million. Earnings after taxes and having an effective tax rate of 26%, driven by a one-off reduction of deferred tax liabilities and reduced tax rate, 31% versus the usual 33%, increases the earnings after tax there to EUR 30.2 million, which gives us an earnings per share of EUR 0.28. If we adjust earnings, we see an earnings per share adjusted of EUR 0.34 compared to EUR 0.31 in Q1 2017. Our capital structure, we're continuing to deleverage and to partially pay back loans. The reason why you see at the moment an increase at the end of Q1 is because of the first-time adoption of IFRS 16. If we wouldn't have had the adoption of IFRS 16, we would have shown a 2.0 net debt-to-EBITDA leverage. Obviously, we are also offering -- the management and supervisory board are offering a EUR 0.50 (sic) [ EUR 0.56 ] dividend per share to the Annual General Meeting. That is going to happen June 2018, which is reflecting a 40% payout ratio, which is in line with our dividend policy. We have, again, also placed Schuldschein at the end of Q1 2018 for partially refinancing our bank debt, and we are expecting further interest savings of EUR 1 million in the first full year when the Schuldschein applies.Obviously, the outlook for 2018, we are reiterating that full year outlook. We're expecting ImmobilienScout to grow in between 4% to 6%. We're expecting AutoScout24 to show revenues of at least to EUR 180.5 million. We're expecting consumer services to show around EUR 87 million of revenues, which means that the Scout24 Group overall would show a revenue growth of between 9% and 11%. The ordinary operating EBITDA margins that we are showing here are both adopted for IFRS 15 and 16. On ImmobilienScout, we are now expecting to show at least 68%. AutoScout should be around 52%. And consumer services, again, should increase by at least 1 percentage point compared to last year, which leaves us with an EBITDA margin range of between 56% and 57.5%, what again is adopted for IFRS 15, 16. And that's the reason why the EBITDA margin is going up from what we've shown you during our annual report call. It is to say that the adoption of the guidance obviously, and also the adoption of IFRS 15 and 16, has no impact on underlying operational growth and profitability trajectory. And I think that this also can become very clear with the remarks at the beginning and also at the end of the presentation. Thank you very much. And now we are open for your questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Joe Barnet-Lamb of Crédit Suisse.
So a few from me. Firstly, with regards to the marketing phasing, could you help us understand what the absolute marketing phasing impact is between Q1 and Q2? Secondly, given you didn't disclose subdivisional or KPIs today, could you give us a little bit more detail around the acceleration in IS24 in the quarter, please? And then finally, on VIA, so obviously, you're saying 29% of revenues came from VIA. Has every customer now had their initial VIA conversation? And what was the EUR 1 million upsell of VIA -- incremental upsell of in VIA over and above what they have been contracted to take? So there's 4, sorry.
Yes. So starting with the marketing, I think it's not about phasing in Q1 or Q2, it's a more deliberate decision to phase it into Q1 because we felt that we need to basically continue to push the realtor lead engine because this is something that obviously agents are requiring very much at the moment. And that's the reason why we decided to basically go on and obviously push traffic in that area. And the second area, because we felt that it's also something that consumers are really asking for and looking for, is the premium subscription. So those are the 2 main elements where we have -- we decided to basically push into Q1 2018. Obviously, I believe that throughout the year, this phasing will then normalize. So it's not a play, Joe, between Q1 and Q2. It's rather a decision to basically [indiscernible] Q1, and then basically phase it across the rest of the year. To give you a certain amount of color around basically our different revenue lines, residential estate partners grew revenue by 6.6% quarter-on-quarter, and business real estate partners went up 8.7%. That means that basically resi, who was at 2.2% in Q4, and business was 6.2% in Q4 as well. This basically tells you and shows you quite a significant acceleration compared also to the last quarter growth rates. And as we said, we are confident that basically with that, we are also fully in line with the guidance and delivering on the guidance. On the VIA conversation, Joe, I would have to go back. But I would say that basically, we have now touched probably 80%, I guess, but -- 80% of our customers, roughly. But we need confirm that number correctly to be able to give you a clear sense how many, really, customers we have touched now with the VIA product.
Yes. And please keep in mind, we are talking constantly to our customers. So as our contracts are running out more or less equally throughout the year, we do have conversations with our customers on a regular basis. And each of these conversations will be a VIA conversation.
So sorry. Just on the second question, you said quarter-on-quarter growth, both residential and business. Did you mean year-on-year in the quarter?
It was year-over-year growth in the quarter.
In the quarter.
Yes, that's what I thought. And then, sorry, just finally, on the optional upsell of VIA within the quarter over and above initial conversations?
So you mean VIA outside of the renewal conversation?
Correct, yes, or where they have chosen, they have opted to spend more, and it is not then part of a contract discussion. So where they have made that decision entirely themselves.
Well, it's -- we know it, but it's certainly something we certainly wouldn't want to disclose.
The next question is from Craig Abbott of Kepler Cheuvreux.
I just got in with the previous -- with my colleague. I just wondered if there was another -- a data point you can maybe provide on some of the VIA products. Could you maybe provide us as a reference point either for Q4 or year-ago Q1, just so we can get a feel for the pace of growth in VIA?
I think -- Craig, I think it's difficult to give this because we have seen oscillations in 2017. We have had in the -- it's not applying to Q1. But in Q2, we have had the sort of a VIA push. That's the reason why we are very cautious in basically handing something out that is probably not a like-for-like comparison.
Okay. But the take-up rate is very much in line with your expectations?
Absolutely. That's the reason why we are, on the one hand, saying we have seen strong acceleration in the quarter compared to Q1 2017, and why we're reiterating clearly the guidance.
Okay. And the marketing spend in Q1, you just focused on the lead generating. That was also part of your guidance, and it's also linked to your revenue growth expectations that you've already given for IS24 this year, correct?
Can you -- I didn't get the...
The investments that you made in Q1, you said you accelerated them in Q1. But were they additional investments beyond your original guidance? Or is it part of your original guidance?
It's part of the original guidance. But it's just a decision from our end how we drive the business because we see that basically we have favorable [ back winds ] to do certain things because the product uptake is good.
The next question is from Andrea Ferraz of Morgan Stanley.
Just to dig in a little bit more into the VIA product implications. I mean, if your residential real estate partner revenue was up 6.6%, and agents continue to grow sequentially, that must mean that ARPU growth is still low single digit, which makes me think that the VIA uptake, it's very much just part of core subscription revenue on a [ tough and ] driven sort of a meaningful incremental revenue growth over the quarter. Is that assessment right? Am I missing something on mix? Can you just help us understand, out of the revenue growth, how much would have been driven by sort of by VIA take-up outside of what the core membership fee is?
So you are right in what you're saying, Andrea. I think, again, ARPU growth coming from customers that we are acquiring at the moment is low because we are talking small customers, as we have depicted. Obviously, we are having -- it's a combination of different elements to describe the 6.6%. It's a low churn rate. It's still a good acquisition rate. And obviously, it's VIA upsell, and partially also outside of the membership. But we'll not, let's say, declare how much it is outside of it. So -- but your assessment at the moment that this is not as meaningful as they were expecting it to be in '19, no doubt about it. Because it's a run rate business. We have to -- that's the reason why we have also been phasing 2018 across the quarters because we know that basically it will take us a certain amount of time to make it meaningful, as you're saying.
And presumably, the initial feedback has been good. Or can you tell us sort of what gives you confidence that next year will be sort of a greater driver of that ARPU growth?
You remember the slide that we showed you in the Capital Markets Day, where we -- where you saw the renewal? Well, we have confidence that this slide has continued to grow.
Okay. And can I -- if I may follow up with another one. Can you just talk a little bit about how you see agents moving towards the end of this year? How do you see the market environment? A little bit more color on that.
I think the market overall, Andrea, hasn't really changed. It is still hot or booming, depending on which city you're looking into. We don't see any really structural change. We ourselves are surprised that, basically, the amount of agent is not going back because you would normally expect, since you have a bit of a contraction in the amount of supply, that basically agent would go out of business. But they are still able to basically hold their business. But overall, we don’t see any change in '18 compared to '17 at the moment. There's no reason for it. The economic situation in Germany is strong. All of that is working perfectly well.
And your agent growth is then sort of coming from agents coming back from Immowelt and Immonet?
It's partly. I mean, obviously, there are also a couple of new on it, but it's mainly basically the guys that have been with Immowelt and Immonet that are coming back, yes.
Look, maybe to add one thing, Andrea. I think in comparing it to the last years, the agent base in itself is more stable. And we still see customers leaving the business, not in an amount which we would expect based on the situation Christian just elaborated on. However, there are new entrants to the market, and these are our new acquisition customers.
They may have split from a franchise or whatever.
The next question is from Andrew Ross of Barclays.
Just a couple of follow-ups on ones that have already been asked. So to come back on the VIA revenues as a percentage of total ImmoScout, which was 29% in Q1, can you help me understand on a like-for-like basis then how that relates to the EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million run rate revenues you talked about from October to January on your Q4 call? So either can you -- what would that EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million be on a like-for-like basis in Q1 this year? Or what would that 29% from Q1 this year have been in Q4 last year? Just so we can get a sense of tracking it. Second question is just on the phasing of growth in IS24 this year. You've clearly started the year at 6%. Your guidance is 4% to 6%. So everything you're saying suggests that ARPU growth should accelerate in the second half. And there's no reason to think we are going to start losing agents. So why -- within your guidance, there's no acceleration of growth factored in. And so the question is, why not? Is it just conservatism? Or is there something else going on there that I've missed and don't understand?
So coming back to VIA piece, Andrew. The 29%, as I said before, is basically irrelevant for the whole VIA product set, which is consisting of the premium listing products, of the media display advertising products and of the acquisition products. The EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million that Greg was talking about on the fourth quarter of last year or on the call of the annual report is only relevant for the product that is called premium listing products. It basically would compare this to Q4, how it has developed on a run rate level. You can say that, basically, the growth rate in that product was low to mid-single digit exactly.
So [ about ] EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million has gone up by low to mid-single digits quarter-on-quarter?
Yes. If you basically would do the like-for-like. If you would take EUR 40 million -- if you take Q4 as EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million on yearly level, and you would compare it to Q1, it would now represent low to mid.
Okay. And on the phasing of growth through the year with ARPU?
So basically Q1 has just happened, and we are obviously very pleased with the results. And we have at the moment no reason to basically change the guidance and percent of the revenues and/or the margins.
And there's nothing you're thinking is going to start to go the other way that should dissuade us from thinking that if ARPU growth does accelerate as you say, that it should [indiscernible]...
The ARPU growth, as you know, is nothing that we are really looking into because the ARPU growth, as you know, is a very tricky metric in our company because of residential, because of business real estate part, et cetera. So basically, what we are really looking into is the absolute revenue growth that is coming. And this obviously has been -- has proven to be quite strong in the Q1. And we don’t have any reason why we believe that the contractual revenues that we are seeing are not continuing to grow as they have done in Q1.
[Operator Instructions] We have received a follow-up of Joe Barnet-Lamb from Crédit Suisse.
Actually, I think my last one was effectively answered on Andrew's. So I think I'll leave it, sorry.
The next is a follow-up of Craig Abbott from Kepler Cheuvreux.
Just a follow-up on your current thoughts on the M&A landscape, obviously, to the extent you can talk about [ the link ]. But I was just wondered if there's been any moves in the industry or in your line of thinking that has changed recently? If you could maybe just give us kind of a broad-picture update on your line of thought there?
Well, so on the M&A piece -- and it will probably not change. I mean, M&A is something that if opportunities arise in our core geographies and in our core vertical is certainly something we're looking at. The market at the moment is showing here and there certain assets that may come to the market. And obviously, we will have a look at that.
There are no further questions. I hand back to the speakers. Just a second. We received another one. It's from Patricia Pare of UBS.
Yes. I just have a very quick question on VIA. I think in the past, you have said that VIA shares, like the share of revenues, was something like 1%. Just wondering whether this is comparable to the 29% or maybe the 1% just reflects one of these [ 3 deferred ] items within VIA. And then just on a longer-term view, do you have any target of how much do you want VIA to represent of overall IS24 revenues?
Patricia, so to your first question to the low single digit percentage, I think that referred to VIA uptake outside of renewals and listings, as you definitely know, so it's not comparable to the share we are now showing, as we found it more fair to -- given the strategy Christian explained on how we sell VIA as well in our membership contracts, it gives a better and more transparent picture if we include that. And on the target, I think we do not have a specific target for VIA share, how far it could grow. Our aim is to grow VIA share definitely because the strategic rationale behind is that the customer picks the product he needs and gives us more flexibility on pricing them.
Now there are no further questions. I hand back to the speakers.
Thanks, everybody, for joining the conference call. Have a great day. And yes, I'll talk to you -- some of you soon, I believe. And yes, I hope you can enjoy some summer weather.
And probably just a last remark, and thank you, Britta, for saying goodbye. As you have seen, we have released on Friday an announcement around changes in our supervisory board, which I think is something that for most of you is very clear. H&F, obviously, any [ directors ] that are representing H&F, after H&F has sold its final stake in the end of February 2018, have decided to basically move away from Scout24. This is going to happen by the end of the next general assembly, which is happening on the 21st of July. And we are -- and we have 2 new persons that are supposed to join that would be offered -- or not be offered, but that will be submission to the -- for election to the AGM, which is Ciara Smyth and Hans-Holger Albrecht. And Hans-Holger is supposed to become the new Supervisory Board Chairman of the Scout24 Group. Hans-Holger is a very senior and seasoned executive at the moment, CEO of Deezer and has long-standing experience in the media industry as a CEO as well. So I think we have there made the right choice, which proves continuity and stability within the company. If you have any sort of questions around that topic, please feel free to [ shoot ] now.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect now.