Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide
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Fraport AG Frankfurt Airport Services Worldwide
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2018-Q1

from 0
M
Matthias Zieschang

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and a warm welcome here from Frankfurt. Before I start my today's presentation, let me please introduce Christoph Nanke, our new Head of Finance and Investor Relations. Christoph took over the position of Stefan Rüter last Wednesday and is now fully in charge for all of your belongings. Regarding his background, you will have also read our release about him. Christoph used to run our Western Hemisphere M&A department before, so he knows all about Greece, Lima, our U.S. business and Brazil. So for today, I will hand over all difficult questions regarding our international activities to him, and I will take the easy questions. So, Christoph, welcome again, and now my presentation on our Q1 figures. My first slide today is an overview about the main facts of the first quarter. Indeed, we experienced an ongoing strong traffic growth across our group airports. Here in Frankfurt, it was predominantly Lufthansa and Ryanair that was driving the passenger development on the short-haul. But also our long-haul traffic performed relatively fine, growing at a decent rate of about 5%. In total, we welcomed 10% more passengers compared to the previous year's quarter, which was well above our full year guidance of around 4% to 6%. Here, I like to point out that Q1 2017 was the last quarter without any significant low-cost traffic and had a relatively low growth rate of 1.8%, or in other words, we had a strong basis effect in the past quarter. Hence, our Aviation and Ground Handling segments performed good and translated most of their revenue growth into earnings growth. What kept us busy, however, was a tense situation within our terminals, more precisely the queuing times before the security check and border controls. To be very frank and open, at this point, the strong traffic growth we had in the past quarter was showing some bottlenecks we are having here in our infrastructure. Queuing times of up to 40 minutes were negatively influencing passenger satisfaction and time to dwell. This impact became also visible within our retailing division. Despite 10% more passengers, we recorded a 3% drop in terms of Duty Free shoppers. As a result of those effects, total retail revenue dropped by around EUR 2 million despite the strong traffic growth we had. To overcome this situation, we are now going to implement more security lines within our terminals. 3 security lines, we will implement shortly. 10 additional lanes we plan via attaching a lightweight building to Pier A-Plus. This building, we expect to be done in the first half of next year. Despite this headwind, our commercial revenues in Frankfurt, so including also our car parks, were up. Flat cost items also our EBITDA within the retail and real estate segment was up as well. Within our international holdings, you will also see, on the next slide, Greece and Brazil are now included for the first time during Q1. The revenue contribution of Greece was clearly small, adjusted by IFRIC 12 as expected during the off-season quarter. Brazil was doing quite fine despite the strong devaluation of the local Brazilian real. Accounting for Greece and Brazil also meant higher cost of capital and CapEx. Hence, our EPS was just slightly up, and free cash flow turned negative. This, however, was also due to changes within our working capital. But more on this later during my presentation. Coming to my next slide, which is treating our group traffic figures. The figures shown on the chart are not new as we have published them already a month ago. More important, certainly, are the preliminary figures for Frankfurt in April. Passenger traffic in April was doing quite fine bearing the shift of Easter traffic and the half day of strike in mind. Accounting for those topics and the stronger previous year's basis, April traffic at 5.8% appears quite fine. Year-to-date, you can see, it stands at 8.7%, which is still well above our full year guidance. But please have in mind, the basis effect from Q1 2017, i.e., the low-cost traffic just started as of Q2 '17. So you cannot extrapolate the Q1 2018 growth for the full year. More traffic results of our international airports for April, we are going to publish next Tuesday on May 15 where we expect a continuation of the current positive trends. Coming now to the revenue bridge of the first quarter. As said previously, our Aviation segment performed positively. Main growth drivers here were the aeronautical charges and the security business. Here in the previous year's quarter, we had not deducted all of the growth incentives which we had to pay for the introduced incentive program. So that in Q1 2017, the reported revenue was a bit higher than the actual result would have been. As of Q2, therefore, we expect even more of traffic to be translated into revenue growth. The retail and real estate segment, as such, was not providing for revenue growth. I already talked about the retail and parking elements, so I'd like to focus on real estate now. Within real estate, we were not going for a renewal of an energy supply contract during the first quarter. This lost contract will mean around EUR 10 million lower revenue from energy supply in this full year, but no impact on EBITDA as the whole business is just about changing money without any margin. So we are clearly working on the margins of our businesses. Group-wide, the impact will be minor. But within the retail and real estate segment, the margin improvement will be around 2%. Ground handling, as said, was good due to more maximum takeoff weights, more passengers and more movements handled. In total, Frankfurt, thus, contributed around EUR 21 million to the increase in group revenue. Within our international holdings, you can see the contribution of Greece and Brazil as indicated before. More unusual, certainly, the performance of Lima and Fraport USA. Here, the local accounts in Lima were quite upbeat with 10% more revenue and EBITDA. Due to the negative [ effects ] of some 12% U.S. dollar devaluation, the euro performance of Lima is showing a decline. In addition, our U.S. businesses were down due to the absence of the Boston concession which expired last October. In total, the increase in group revenue, without accounting for the EUR 38 million IFRIC 12 revenue, was quite okay and in line with our expectations. The development of our operating cost is shown on Slide 6. Out of EUR 56 million revenue increase, we translated roughly EUR 38 million into EBITDA growth, reflecting a margin on incremental revenue of around 68%. Reasons for the good revenue translation were besides some base effects, especially good OpEx control here in Frankfurt. Other OpEx, as you can see on the chart, did not move. Likewise, personnel costs remained flat and cost of materials just moved by a tiny EUR 1 million. All-in-all and even if I adjust for base effects from the previous year, like the EUR 5 million restructuring provision or the higher other income relating to a property sale in this year, Frankfurt still was able to translate around EUR 9 million out of EUR 21 million into EBITDA. Within our international holdings, we translated some EUR 12 million out of EUR 35 million more revenue into EBITDA. This has certainly to do with the fact that Greece, as planned during this off-season, was not showing any EBITDA. So the EUR 20 million of revenue were offset by the regular OpEx amount of some EUR 20 million. Adjusted for Greece, the international activities recorded EUR 15 million higher revenue and some EUR 12 million EBITDA. So all-in all, the revenue translation was very good as well. In total, the group EBITDA of EUR 175 million was in line with our traffic and revenue performances. Coming now to our group result on Slide 7. Indeed, the group result of EUR 20 million was more or less unchanged to the previous year's value, despite the EUR 37 million increase in group EBITDA. The headwind in our financial result can mainly be explained by the following. First of all, we needed to account for Greece capital cost, so some EUR 11 million higher D&A and EUR 18 million of additional interest cost, which is a negative contribution of EUR 29 million post EBITDA. The consolidation of Brazil was also leading to higher D&A in an amount of EUR 3 million and some EUR 3 million higher interest cost, which was a total combined of EUR 6 million negative post our EBITDA. On the flipside, the FX in Lima and our U.S. businesses led to a positive effect of some EUR 4 million post-EBITDA. In Lima, the redemption of the project financed last year was also leading to lower interest cost of some EUR 2 million in the period under review. Within our result from associated companies, despite the positive traffic performances, Antalya's net result experienced a dip over the previous year. Here, we needed to revalue the concession liabilities due to the shift of the 2017 concession payment of EUR 100 million into the year 2018. This led to an extraordinary book gain of some EUR 6 million in last year's Q1. On the operational side, Antalya's EBIT was well up. And also for the full year, we are absolutely confident that Antalya will experience its strongest result ever. For the past quarter, however, Antalya recorded a decline of around EUR 2 million. Also, our retail joint venture here in Frankfurt was down as the operations performed certainly a bit weaker. Pulling all those effects together, we come to a more or less flat group result of around EUR 20 million. Leaving now the group P&L behind and coming to our cash flow development in the past quarter. Let me start here, especially with the performance of our operating cash flow. In light of our good operational performances, our cash management team got very active and redeemed most of our outstanding liabilities and obligation. Hence, our net working capital compared to the previous year was negative and reduced operating cash flow by more than EUR 40 million. Please note here that this effect was due to the balance sheet date so that we should see a normalized development of the operating cash flow going forward for the rest of the year. Starting then at the lower operating cash flow level of EUR 80 million, we recorded higher cash outflows, outflows for CapEx, which were well in line with our expectations. [ Sole ] deviation here certainly comes from Lima as we are still waiting for the EPC contract to be tendered. This tendering, which we expect to happen some when by end of this year or start of next year, will provide us further visibility on potential down payments and the development of CapEx and free cash flow going forward. Post-Q1, however, the low operating cash flow and higher CapEx led to a negative off-season free cash flow and an increase in group net debt by around EUR 70 million. Yes, ladies and gentlemen, this was a quick run through our Q1 results. My last slide deals, as always, with our outlook on the full year. And unsurprisingly, we have not adjusted our outlook as it is just 2 months old. So all targets remain in place. Truly, we do see ourselves from today's perspective rather at the upper end of the Frankfurt guidance, but still within our guided ranges. So first of all, thank you for your attention, and we can now go to the Q&A session.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question is from the line of Vittorio Carelli with Santander.

V
Vittorio Carelli
Equity Analyst

The first one is relating to the retail trend you're expecting in 2018. So regarding this aspect, first of all, how many of the growing passengers in the first quarter were channeled through the terminal 1? And how many of them has been channeled through terminal 2? And if this trend will be confirmed also during the year? And if we can give you -- if you can give us more color on the security check, I would say with [indiscernible] what are you going to do there? And which is the CapEx related to this possible [ restructuring ]? And the second question, it's related to the international assets. So if you -- if you can give us an idea of a medium-term EBITDA margin for Fortaleza, Porto Alegre, Lima and Greece. Also Lima, just to see how the EBITDA margin can stabilize assuming the traffic growth trend we will have.

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, thank you, Vittorio. Let's start with your question #1, retail trends. So in -- as I mentioned Q1 '18 was weak, we lost EUR 0.50 per passenger and based on our internal quantitative analysis, so we could say that we had 3 reasons, which are already known. So first of all it's currency effect which perhaps covers about EUR 0.30 of the EUR 0.50 downward trend, and the other EUR 0.20, you can allocate between the structural effects over proportionately growth on the continental side. And the other effect is also already known. This is a problem with the waiting times. So in other words, the dwell times reduced and we suffered in the shops. What is the, let me say, the allocation of the additional growth between terminal 1 and 2? You can say that's, first of all, coming from the traffic growth, 50% more or less is generated by Lufthansa. The other 50% of growth is more or less generated from all the low cost carriers, easyJet with Ryanair. So in other words, 50% of the growth was handled in terminal 2, and the other 50% from Lufthansa and Star Alliance in T1. And CapEx for the security line, so let me say, in the first step, when we introduced the 3 additional lines. This is not combined with additional CapEx. So by reconfiguration of the existing lines, we were able to gain space to allocate the 3 lines in the A, the T1 A area. And then, in the second step, we build this lightweight building on a place where, today, you have parking places. And here, let me say, we calculate an amount between EUR 10 million, maximum EUR 15 million for this building. And then, including the 10 additional security lines. Second question, with regards to international assets. So we are not measuring our activities with the margins. We are focusing on free cash flow, on EBITDA, on net income. But this -- what we can tell you is that in total, the EBITDA margin will go up year-by-year, but it's not an internal target for us. That's the reason why we are not going to communicate any EBITDA margins in the international business.

Operator

And the next question is from the line of Elodie Rall with JPMorgan.

E
Elodie Rall
Research Analyst

I'll have 3, please. The first one is on aviation. I mean, you delivered a very strong EBITDA in Q1, which is up 52%. How can we think about that in light of the 10% traffic growth in Q1? So for example, if you were to take the high end of your guidance for traffic for the year, so say, 6%, could we extrapolate the trends that we've seen in Q1 in terms of aviation for EBITDA delivery? And how can we think -- can you help us -- can you remind us the impact of discounts in this division as well? That's my first question. Second question would be on retail spend per pax, to follow up from the first question. You're taking some actions there in order to reduce the queuing, the waiting time. Should we expect an improvement as soon as Q2? Or when was the timeframe for those actions to actually have an impact? And my third question is on working capital. There was a negative -- I mean, the evolution was negative in Q1 and weighed in on the free cash flow. Can you explain a bit why and how we can think about that for the year?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, first question, aviation. So as I mentioned, with regards to the passenger growth of 10%, please, do not extrapolate this growth for the rest of the year. We stick to our guidance, let me say, about 6% growth. At the end of the year, if it would be 6.5%, it's also fine. So we take all what we get. But I think, more relevant is what do we get for the growth as a -- let me say, as a monetary compensation. And here, we already, when we had the last call, we gave the metric that was one -- that we -- for one additional passenger, we expect about EUR 7.50. So in other words, if we expect 4 million more passengers, which would be equivalent to 6%, a little bit more than 6% passenger growth for the full year, you can say 4 million times EUR 7.50, so the whole positive revenue impact will be about EUR 30 million in the Aviation segment, which directly goes into the EBITDA line. But on the other side of course you have to see that we have some higher personnel costs, which we have to deduct. And now, let me say the open question is how -- what is the increase on the personnel cost side. But the net effect with regards to the EBITDA in this segment will be clearly and significantly positive. Second question, retail spend per pax, we had in Q1 relatively and absolutely seen a reduction. We expect the stabilization of the absolute number. So let me say, the trend on the spent -- the negative trend on the spend per pax will continue because, also in this year, we expect an over proportionately increase on the continental side. But with regards to the absolute retail proceeds, we expect stabilization, first of all, because we have this basis effect in Q1, when we now compare Q1 '18 with Q1 '17. You have to have in mind that in Q1 '17 there have been no low-cost passengers at Frankfurt. So this will change in Q2 but -- latest in Q3, but because then we compare the quarter with the full impact of low cost -- with low cost traffic, which we then already had in Q3 '17. Also, when we look now on the quality KPIs with regards to waiting times, we see already a slight improvement. As I mentioned, we are working on several measures to improve the situation, the most -- the biggest lever we do have when we have the additional security lines, but we are also working on motivation and other productivity measures so that we are also convinced that, for the rest of the year, we can work on the issue, waiting times on 1 side and more dwelling time on the other side. And as a third lever also, we are doing together with our joint venture partner, the Heinemann brothers, we are working a lot of measures and product and pricing policy, things to incentivize the purchasing behavior of the people. So to make the long story short, all-in all, up from Q2 to the rest of the year, we expect the stabilization of -- in absolute retail proceeds. What was the...

E
Elodie Rall
Research Analyst

Working capital.

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, working capital. This is you can say, it's coincidence. We have always this white noise behavior of working capital. And in Q1, it was, let me say, against us. Latest in Q2 or Q3, it will be in favor of us. During the year, this is leveling out. So that's -- this is a one-off and will be compensated in Q2 or latest in Q3. So in other words, when you look on the full year, we do expect an operational cash flow which is higher compared to the operational cash flow in the year 2017. And this includes of course the volatility and the fluctuation of working capital.

Operator

And the next question is from the line of Stephanie D'Ath with RBC.

S
Stephanie Fabienne D'Ath
Analyst

I have 3 questions, please. The first one is on the bottleneck issues. So you mentioned adding 3 security lines. Could you please let us know how many are currently existing and confirm, therefore, that your CapEx guidance for Fraport that's around EUR 450 million for this year is unchanged despite the small increase you just mentioned the EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million CapEx related to the security lines? My second question is regarding traffic. So you confirmed your guidance of 4% to 6% growth for 2018. Up to April, you were growing 9%. Could you give us an indication of summer seat capacity based on the route openings? And finally, my third question is on tariffs. So you decided not to increase tariffs for 2018. Could you maybe share your thinking about 2019 already?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, bottleneck issues are the security lines we have on the Schengen level in T1 A, as of today, 15 security lines. Now we add in the next couple of days, 3. So then we have 18. And then, in the first half of the year '19, we add another 10 lines in this new lightweight building. So then, the final security line capacity in T1 A area is then 28 -- from 15 to 28.

S
Stephanie Fabienne D'Ath
Analyst

Okay, so you don't expect any bottleneck issues anymore by...

M
Matthias Zieschang

I think maybe with -- yes, let me say, I think the additional 3 will relax a little bit the situation. Also including some motivation measures for the staff to run it a little bit faster. And but still there can be, in peak times, some problems during the year. But I think, latest when then -- in next year, we have added another 10 lines, so this must be really enough. So that with the implementation of this additional 10 and going up to 28, then there must be enough capacity really to cover all the peaks which we have in during 2019. The CapEx, yes, in Frankfurt itself, we talked about maintenance Capex and CapEx for T3, up to EUR 500 million. And as I already mentioned, so for the security bottlenecks, so the monetary amount is relatively modest. We talked about EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million. It's a problem...

S
Stephanie Fabienne D'Ath
Analyst

And that includes the 10 additional lines for next year?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, yes. Because for the first 3, again we have already the machine, so we have now to maneuver through these overcrowded area. But this doesn't cost any money. So the EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million, these are the expenses for the lightweight building, including technical equipment into including the additional machines. And traffic, yes, it's 10% in Q1. We -- the range has been 4% to 6% as of today, nobody talks about 4%. So we talk about 6%, what we expect for the full year. And seat capacity, and now we have the summer schedule, it's about 9% plus compared to previous year. So the question is, we have this, which is very fine for us, this high increase of seat capacity. And last year, we benefited not from additional seat capacity but a significantly higher seat load factor. And so one, is the open question is how many of this additional capacity now will be utilized by the airlines and by the passengers. So tariffs, I think, we said for '19, we go for flat round. So same level as in 2018.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andy Chu with Deutsche Bank.

C
Chi Onn Chu
Research Analyst

A few questions from me, please. Just in terms of some operational stats. You mentioned the waiting time of 40 minutes. What is the sort of normal waiting time, please? And where are you running waiting times on average at the moment? In terms of Brazil, Fortaleza and Porto Alegre, could you just give us a flavor please in terms of seasonality, please, at those airports. I'm not sure whether there's any big difference between the two. And then, just in terms of clarity, on the retail revenues, Matthias, just to clarify, you're talking about a stabilization for the year in terms of absolute overall retail revenues? Is that correct?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Yes, last question, as we mentioned, stabilization of the absolute amount, the absolute proceeds compared to previous year. Normal waiting time should be not longer than 10 minutes. This is our expectation. This is our ambition. And as I mentioned now, in peak times, we had up to 40 minutes, and this is not acceptable. And again, we are working on this issue, and we see the first improvements now, and customer satisfaction is going up, is improving. But again, it's a technical issue. It's a capacity issue. And I told you what are the, let me say, the levers to improve the situation. Fortaleza and Porto Alegre, of course, there's some seasonality in Q1 and Q4, but these are not, let me say, leisure airports or touristic airports. So they have a strong, let me say, also business and normal demand so that at the shoulders, of course, the traffic is a little bit lower. But it's not comparable to Bulgaria or Antalya where we have touristic-driven businesses. So it's relatively stable during the year.

C
Chi Onn Chu
Research Analyst

Great. And then, maybe one, just the last one. In terms of sort of any sort of provisioning sort of on the sort of headcount fronts. Obviously, over the last 12 to 18 months, quite a few adjustments on that front in terms of early retirement schemes. So this a pretty clean quarter. Any thoughts there, please, going forward?

M
Matthias Zieschang

You can say it's a boring quarter in a way, in the sense nothing happened. The only thing which happened was -- is the positive trend everywhere with regards to traffic. So we didn't have any extraordinary positive or negative items. And I think that's okay, it can continue for the rest of the year.

C
Chi Onn Chu
Research Analyst

Right, so nothing expected then?

M
Matthias Zieschang

No. Trend -- all the trends seems to be stable now.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the next question is from the line of Arthur Truslove with Crédit Suisse.

A
Arthur David Truslove
Research Analyst

Just a couple for me. So firstly on the ground handling side. It looks like if you strip out the external items, the personnel costs were up around 6% on an underlying basis. Is that what you're expecting to see for the rest of the year or not? Secondly, on the Aviation side, you've mentioned that a couple of million of staff cost came out on an underlying basis if you strip out the security business. Is that, once again, something that you expect to be able to sustain as we go forward? And, the final one for me, just on the security business. Is it still appropriate to assume that this is an extremely low margin business and, therefore, the incremental revenue from that is likely to be wiped out by extra cost?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Security business is not a low margin business, it's a zero margin business because we -- on one side, we have the personnel cost items and some material expenses. And we fully charge all of these cost items to the ministry of inner affairs and this charges then these amounts to the airlines. For us, it's -- we don't have any margin inside this business. So whenever we have higher personnel cost in the security business, we charge this to the -- indirectly to the airlines. In ground handling, we have -- when you look on the EBITDA, you have -- you see this improvement, but you have to have in mind that it is a little bit spoiled by the restructuring provisions which we build in Q1 2017. So in other words, this positive momentum is a little bit overstated because, in this year, we didn't build any provisions. But in last year, we had 3 million, 4 million provisions in the segment. So this you have to have deduct to come to adjusted result in ground handling. But nevertheless, it was an increase -- positive increase. And this has to do with more passengers, more maximum takeoff weights and also more movements. So in last year, we suffered because we didn't have any additional movements and any additional maximum takeoff weights. And now the current trade -- the current trend so was in favor of this segment, and we benefited from this trend. And of course, now we have to introduce more staff because, as I mentioned, the volumes, the movements, they are going up, and we need more staff. But on the other side, we have also higher revenues. And here, we have a margin. It's not a zero margin business like security, but of course, it's a very low margin.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the next question is from the line of Charles Maynadier with Kempen.

C
Charles Maynadier
Analyst

Just one follow-up for me on the regulation and tariffs. So you mentioned, next year we will see flat tariffs again most likely. Could you give us more color on what to expect for 2020 and beyond? Can we potentially see a longer-term agreement?

M
Matthias Zieschang

I think it's a little bit too early to talk about this because we have some constraint. We have to see -- last year, we had a return on assets in aviation of about 5%. Our WACC has been 6.5%. This year, you see already the improvement in aviation. So with other words, at the end of the year, we will see a significant improvement with regards to the return on assets. On the other side, we have pressure on the WACC. And now we are coming into a situation that the returns come very close to the allowed WACC. So with regards to '19 with the flat round and the expected higher number of passengers, we think everything is fine. But then, we have to see in 2020, what is the WACC at that point of time. Is the WACC going up again or still low or even lower? What is the RAB which up from this year, will go up because now we are also ramping up with the CapEx for terminal 3, which goes into the RAB. And on the other side, then we have the passenger growth. So there are 3 elements: passenger growth, development of RAB, and development of WACC, which we cannot influence. This is determining, at the end of the day, our fee policy. And I think in 12 months, in the future, we have more transparency then about all this framework of data.

C
Charles Maynadier
Analyst

Okay. And did you already start discussions with Lufthansa?

M
Matthias Zieschang

We are dominant in discussions with our biggest customers. And I think, we're -- looking forward it's very constructive and we're working together. And when you look on the growth rates, 10%, Lufthansa is also growing with about 10%, which we think is an extraordinary growth. And we are happy that our biggest customer is growing.

Operator

And we have a follow-up question from Arthur Truslove with Crédit Suisse.

A
Arthur David Truslove
Research Analyst

So just quickly on the aviation. Obviously, you've said that you delivered EUR 2 million of staff benefits -- staff cost benefits I should say in the first quarter. Is that a run rate that you expect to continue through the year or is it likely to be one-off?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Let me say, we have -- with regards to personnel cost, we have several elements. First of all, what we have every year is a -- it's a burden, you can say, by the wage increase. And we assume always a wage increase of below 3%, which in this year will be a little bit higher because the new minister for inner affairs, he negotiated this, and now we have a little bit more than 3%. So the burden is a little bit higher, so a little bit more than EUR 20 million increase for the Frankfurt side. On the other side, we -- as you already know, we built these provisions for restructuring measures, more than EUR 40 million in last year. And at that point of time, we guided that the positive impact of this program is up to EUR 10 million. And here, we are very happy to say that it worked 100%. So we have 2 elements, we have wage increase in this year, which is above EUR 20 million. And internally, we are now calculating what does it because it's very complex what was negotiated from Mr. Seehofer and so it's difficult now to work out whether it's EUR 22 million or EUR 25 million, but it's above EUR 20 million. On the other side, we have this positive impact from the restructuring program in this year, already in this year, by close to EUR 10 million. So let me say, the net effect of personnel increase for the full year is, at the end of the day, depends what is now the final outcome of this tariff agreement, but I would say, it's perhaps, as a rough number, EUR 15 million, a EUR 25 million increase, EUR 10 million decrease, net effect about EUR 15 million.

Operator

And the next question is from the line of Michael Kuhn with Societe Generale.

M
Michael Kuhn
Equity analyst

Two questions. Firstly, following up on Lufthansa. What is the growth of continental versus intercontinental capacities for Lufthansa this summer, also in the context of shifting some A380s into Munich. And do you see the risk of further capacity shifts into Lufthansa's second half? And, the second question, in the international business, what about new projects in the pipeline, let's say entirely new projects? And in Fraport USA, you will have the JFK concession soon. Any new projects and will the JFK concession be able to compensate for the Boston loss?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Mr. Kuhn, thank you for the questions. Lufthansa growth -- as I mentioned, Lufthansa grew more or less in line with the total market, so about 10% growth. And also the -- let me say, the ratio between intercont and continental traffic is more or less the same. So in total, the intercontinental traffic increased by roughly 5% in total but also for Lufthansa and the extraordinary and overproportionately growth came from the continent. And here Lufthansa grew by more than 10%. You mentioned the A380 relocation of 5 of them to Munich. You have to see on the other side, we got 5 -- 3 -- 400 aircraft. And so, this is also a compensation of this. But in general, of course, let me say, the seat capacity of this aircraft is a little bit lower. But in total, we can't see any effect from this because, again, look at the growth rates at Munich airport in Q1 and look at the growth rates of Frankfurt Airport in Q1. You'll see the difference. And the second question was international activities. Say, we don't have any new projects in the pipeline. We are waiting for Bulgaria, Sofia airport, this is already known. And your question with regards to the U.S. business. Of course, we lost some EBITDA contribution from Boston. Now we gained JetBlue terminal in JFK. So in the first 2, 3 years, it's a partly compensation. But latest, up from year 4, perhaps already up from year 3, we have a full compensation of Boston. And in the long run, then of course JFK will ramp up and will overcome the EBITDA contribution of Boston.

M
Michael Kuhn
Equity analyst

And is there anything else in the U.S. in preparation?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Not. Let me say, there's nothing in the pipeline but we are permanently looking on the screen what could come up there. But there's nothing on which we are currently working.

M
Michael Kuhn
Equity analyst

Okay. And last question, sorry, on the international daily disposal, also still no progress?

M
Matthias Zieschang

What? No, no, no. Same story as every year.

Operator

And the next question is from the line of Vittorio Carelli with Santander.

V
Vittorio Carelli
Equity Analyst

Matthias, sorry for this follow-up. You mentioned about [ customer ] motivation of the security guys. How can you achieve, let's say, this kind of motivation in those people, please?

M
Matthias Zieschang

Direct approach, direct contracts, more trainings, perhaps some incentives which we are offering to these guys. And I think it's a bunch of measures, which we tried to elaborate and also to -- yes?

V
Vittorio Carelli
Equity Analyst

No, sorry, because those guys looks very motivated that's the problem. [ It looks in the ]...

M
Matthias Zieschang

Of course, they are motivated. We are talking -- it's like on the road when you have some [ juice ] and traffic problems. So we are talking about the last 3%, which we have to incentivize and the biggest lever, as I mentioned, is the technology, is the infrastructure and the capacity. But even when you can, let me say, enhance 3% more productivity with regards to the personnel, even this can -- also this can help us. So we are working on all levers to improve the situation because it's crucial for us and we know this is our operational issue in the moment. And the whole management focus is on this issue, and we try to do all to overcome the situation. And this is one small item, but again the biggest lever is the introduction of new security lines and the starting, of course, of the security lines.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] It seems we have no further questions. I hand back to Matthias Zieschang for closing comments.

C
Christoph Nanke

So let me take on, this is Christoph speaking. I think it has been a good call. Thank you for your time. Looking to meet all of you soon, also in person. And yes, thank you for the time being.