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Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Evonik Industries AG
The company reported another quarter of robust performance, characterized by sector-leading earnings growth and impressive free cash flow generation. CEO Christian Kullmann highlighted that their strategy is yielding positive results, particularly due to a combination of internal measures and strategic positioning in high-growth sectors like Specialty Additives and Care Solutions. The company inaugurated a new world-scale biosurfactants plant in May, which is expected to contribute to future growth.
The Evonik Tailor Made program is a key initiative for structural cost savings. Maike Schuh reported that the company has realized first savings and expects significant cumulative savings of EUR 200 million by the end of 2025. This initiative will positively impact the bottom line, surpassing annual cash outflows over the next three years.
The company's confidence in its upgraded EBITDA outlook is evident. They expect EBITDA to fall between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2.2 billion, with the lower end appearing increasingly unlikely. This conservative outlook leads them to believe there might be an upside from the midpoint.
M&A activities are off the table for the next two years as the company focuses on internal restructuring and organic growth investments. The Performance Materials and Superabsorbent businesses are marked for divestment, with the closing of the latter anticipated in the coming weeks.
Despite competitive pressures, particularly in Crosslinkers, the Specialty Additives division is on track to return to historical EBITDA levels. New investments, such as the biosurfactants plant, are expected to drive future revenue and EBITDA growth.
The company's disciplined approach to investments and cost management is designed to maintain a healthy balance sheet. Free cash flow is expected to show year-on-year improvement, further aiding future business optimization and efficiency initiatives. The strong cash generation will focus on reducing debt and possibly increasing shareholder dividends.
The company experienced a solid start to Q3 with positive trends continuing from Q2 in Smart Materials and Specialty Additives. However, Performance Materials is expected to see a sequential decline. The overall guidance for Q3 EBITDA aligns with the strong Q2 results.
While there are concerns about personnel changes, the company believes their talent management strategies will bring in better employees. They are confident that their restructuring efforts, like Evonik Tailor Made, will enhance technological competitiveness and career progression for their employees.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Evonik Industries AG Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. I am Vassilios, the course call operator. I would like to remind you that [Operator Instructions] and the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Christian Kullmann, CEO. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot, and welcome to our quarterly earnings call also from my side. To sum it up, it was another quarter in which we have pre-released our numbers. It was another quarter where we have again delivered on the quiet elevated expectations. Another quarter of sector leading earnings growth and ladies and gentlemen, another quarter of very strong free cash flow generation.
So, ladies and gentlemen, let's go right into the topics of today. Second quarter has once again more proven that our strategy, [ our ] agenda is paying off. And our own numbers are more and more reflecting exactly that.
What is driving our growth? It is a combination. It is a combination of, first of all, self-helping measures and at the same time, our positioning in the right pockets of growth.
The right pockets of growth, that is, for example, our Specialty Additives business, which has had an unusually tough last year and is now on the path of recovery back to old strengths, or our resilient and steadily growing Care Solutions business. We continue with its targeted investments into these pockets of growth, like the first world-scale biosurfactants plant which we inaugurated in May.
Biosurfactants will be an additional growth contributor over the next years in an attractive market with strong sustainability trends and already contracted volumes.
In respect of self-helping measures, these are our shorter-term contingency measures which continue to support our earnings this year, going at, this will be accomplished by the ramp up of the structural cost savings under our Evonik Tailor Made program, and by our business optimization programs like the one in Animal Nutrition you are well familiar with.
We'll continue, ladies and gentlemen, with this strategic approach, currently in the still sluggish environment, our full focus is on executing our internal measures and programs like Evonik Tailor Made, like reorganization of Technology & Infrastructure, or like our business optimization programs.
So let me be very clear, I dare even say crystal clear. This means also that any kind of M&A is currently not -- 3 letters, 1 message, not on our agenda. Not for this year and also not for the next year.
Maike, why don't we go into more detail on one of these internal programs, for example, Evonik Tailor Made.
Sure, Christian. This is really a topic very high on our daily agenda these days. We are progressing well. Have booked the full provision of EUR 240 million this quarter and are just about to start the third and last phase of the program. The implementation of the target organizations all across our teams and units.
We will have the first savings already this year and then ramping up over the next 3 years. At the end of 2025, we will have realized quite significant cumulative savings of EUR 200 million already.
And from a cash perspective, the net savings of Tailor Made coming through in the bottom line will be higher than the annual cash out in this and each of the upcoming 3 years. This means that the program will be net positive for our free cash flow year-by-year.
This is a perfect transition of our free cash flow development. Just like in Q1, we have significantly exceeded our prior year's free cash flow in Q2 as well. In total, this is a swing of EUR 500 million in free cash flow in the first 6 months.
However, let me add one little caveat. Our cash generation this year will be more evenly distributed over the individual quarters. Last year, we had a weaker first and a very strong second half of free cash flow. The weak environment and demand situation allowed us to reduce our net working capital quite drastically towards the end of the year.
Luckily, the demand in our business has improved, which on the flip side also means less strong net working capital inflow in the second half of this year. Nevertheless, on a full year basis, we will again deliver a year-on-year higher free cash flow, with hopefully less stress for the entire organization, leaving us more room to focus on the next optimization and efficiency topics.
Jumping to our outlook, first on Q3 with me and then on the full year with Christian. The start in Q3 has been quite good, very similar to the trends we have seen across Q2. [ Autobooks ] and volumes are still looking healthy in Smart Materials and Specialty Additives. Let's see if the latter one can deliver another strong quarter like Q2. Typically, there is a bit of seasonality in Specialty Additives over the summer months.
What is for sure, nutrition & Care will be up sequentially driven by higher volumes in Animal Nutrition after our shutdown and the typical H2 weighted seasonality in Health Care.
Performance Materials will be down sequentially.
The other line should reflect our ongoing cost savings with the effect of bonus provisions is typically difficult predict at this stage.
All in all, Q3 EBITDA is expected to be on the pretty strong Q2 level.
Maike, Maike, Maike. Please forgive me to interrupt and to intervene. And ladies and gentlemen, give me a chance to dismantle. Let's keep it like a tiny secret to you. During my Saturdays joining [ Grammar School ], I was anything else than a monster in math. But having said this, I do really believe, Maike, that even from my, let me say, dry point of view, we will have a tremendous good chance to come close to EUR 1.7 billion of EBITDA already after 9 months.
Christian, actually, yes. That's also my understanding.
Great. Great. And with this, ladies and gentlemen, that should give us some good confidence. Good confidence even for upgraded outlook range. As you know we expect EBITDA to come out between EUR 1.9 billion and EUR 2.2 billion. And from what we know and from what we see today the lower end of this range appears more and more unlikely.
Third quarter has started well, and currently we are seeing no -- definitely no area where business is weakening. But as you know, visibility on the other side beyond August still remains limited.
And as you know us, we prefer to be conservative. But even for me as a conservative, as mentioned, it is difficult to ignore that there is probably some further upside from the midpoint of our new guidance range. Those are nice, I guess.
Those are my closing remarks for our call so far and now we are happy to take your questions. Thanks a lot for listening so far.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Sebastian Bray with Berenberg.
And congratulations on the results. They are pretty good. Can [ you ] help me with a question, Christian, on your comments earlier around M&A being off the agenda for the next 2 years, for '24 and '25? Does that also apply to divestments or is it shorthand for acquisitions? What I mean by that is the potential divestment of Performance Materials or partnering up and the handful of other noncore assets that Evonik has outside Superabsorbers. Is that something which we shouldn't be assuming could happen in 2025?
And my second question is on Tech & Infrastructure. It looks as if there has been some underlying improvement in the infrastructure side of the profitability. And I remember Evonik previously had indicated, correct me if I'm wrong, that these assets might move into their own area, presumably with a move to carving out or selling later down the line. Could you give us an idea of what the EBITDA associated with Evonik's infrastructure assets is, please?
I'll start with the first question about M&A. Here you have to split up. For sure, we will go ahead strictly, [ disciplinedly ] in respect of selling the C4 business. Here the carve-out is already done, and yes, the business has improved. Numbers and figures over the course of the year, we have seen they are not at all in a hurry, we'll continue to observe the market, but to be crystal clear about it, C4 is on the list of our disposal candidates, and that is what we are still going to do. Here we do stay put. Here we do remain.
In respect of the Superabsorbent business signing, we do expect the closing in respect of the incoming next weeks. Then we will have the deconsolidation and then I guess the deal is done.
I have talked about M&A in respect of try to buy other companies or try to buy portfolio parts of other companies. That is what we will definitely quit on for the next 2 years. That is not on our agenda for the next 2 years.
We will exclusively focus on first, our internal self-helping measures to restructure the company, to create a better company than it is in current days.
And second, on investments, tiny and disciplined ones in organic growth. So to be very clear, once again, yes, we move on selling the disposal candidates, and yes, we will quit on doing any M&A in the other respect.
With this, I hand over to Maike.
Yes, Sebastian. Thank you for the congratulations, and we are also very pleased. And with regards to your Technology & Infrastructure question, on the one hand side, we have mentioned before that, yes, there is a really good transition. It's also partly related to the service dividend that we do not bring into our chemical divisions. However, yes, you're right, the assets -- with regards to the assets, we have altogether we had a EUR 3.2 billion sales in 2023. So 1/3 of this is external versus 2/3 are internal sales. And so the split, we weren't sure in which way your question was going, but the split, if that was what you wanted to hear, is that technology is 25% and the infrastructure part is 75% going into this Marl, Wesseling and Antwerp part. As I said, we are not sure if this was what you asked us. We are not clear how...
Yes. Let's pretend that Evonik in 3, 4years' time says infrastructure is a nice asset. We want to follow in the footsteps of some other firms that have split these assets out. Is the correct way to say we take 75% of the sales of externals, so call it EUR 750 million, and then apply whatever margin we might think would be appropriate for a utilities business to it? Is that fair, or?
I think, to be quite clear, this is definitely too early to answer that. On the one hand side, what we are currently doing is we put the whole infrastructure, Technology Infrastructure division on its -- yes, on a carve out versus we bring parts of it also into our chemical divisions. Let us move forward with that and then we can see how the split will be. And also, to be very clear, we have mentioned before that we are still open to [ repursue ] all possible next steps. So we are not really clear on how to proceed and bear with us for another couple of quarters here.
The next question comes from the line of Andreas Heine with Stifel.
Yes, 3 questions, if I may. The first is on biosurfactants. So you open up the plant. Can you share with us how do you expect the ramp up to be? You mentioned that you have already take off agreements. Maybe some words on this. That's the first question.
The second, Smart Materials with very nice progress year-over-year. But if I compare that with margins of peers, those are still quite a bit higher. Is that something what you can keep up with as the economy comes back? Or how do you think about this issue?
The last one is capital allocation. So you will not go for M&A. You have strong cash generation. You send the main task to use these free cash to reduce that? Or would you also consider to increase the dividend?
Andreas, thank you very much for the question. I propose Maike takes the first one on biosurfactants and Christian the next 2 ones on Smart Materials, margin potential, and capital allocation and dividend.
Yes, Andreas. And regarding your biosurfactants plant question or market question, so what we see is that there will be, in our expectations, the market will go to EUR 1 billion biosurfactants markets by 2023 on the one hand side, replacement and new applications. Our target is actually that we will have [ 30% ] of the market share in 2032. That would mean around EUR 300 million of sales.
We see that the current focus is clearly on personal and Home Care markets. But we also see further applications and further potential in areas that will be addressed from us, agriculture, animal nutrition, coding, additive, you name it, you get it. The new plant in Slovakia is probably full in our expectations, running on full capacity by 2026. And should then generate a triple digit million sales and EBITDA margins of 25%. So this is probably, if you do the math, that will hopefully be helpful in this.
With that, I hand over to Christian.
Thanks a lot, Andreas. First about Smart Materials, yes. Here we do have good chances to improve the profitability in future. Think about utilization rate, which is a little bit higher than 70%. So that translates into additional EBITDA in future terms if the markets in those businesses, in those respective businesses will be back. So there's more to come.
And second, what do we do? What do we have in our own hands? Here it means that we will activate additional potential in particular on the cost side. As you know, here we have different initiatives in place which will pay off over the course of the incoming month.
And then there was a third question, somewhat like an evergreen about capital allocation. And as you know, I'm in love with evergreens. Having said this, first, it is that we will stay disciplined. Disciplined in respect of our investments. Here we will focus on decent and disciplined investments in organic growth and focus thereby on our innovational potential.
Second, I'm in love, the same holds true for Maike, with our investors. That means we will work our knuckles bloody to make sure that the already [ led ] high and attractive dividend level will remain, will stay put.
And third, not to forget, and that is Maike's job because she's a math monster, that we will work on a healthy, that we will work on an attractive balance sheet. And after all the initiatives, all the measures, all the decisions we have taken, the continuing strong free cash flow generation, after all those major restructuring processes I've mentioned, after all of this, we will definitely have an open eye and an open ear to listen to the preferences of our shareholders. I guess that it is what I can convey to you honestly.
The next question comes from the line of Jaideep Pandya with On Field Research.
My first question is around the Health Care business actually, or more so health care and consumer care. I mean, your portfolio is very specialty here. Could you just give us some color of the margin profile? Because we -- when we back out the Animal Nutrition business, at least I get to an average margin of around 15%, 16%, 17%, which is similar to some of the peers, which have a slightly higher chemicals or ethylene-oriented portfolio. So what are we missing here? I mean, do you have a tale of products which you need to prune and improve the quality? So that's the -- that's my first question.
The second question is on the, yes, moving parts. If you can be -- I know we always demand a lot from you guys, but if you can be generous enough, given the visibility you have today for key moving parts for 2025, that would be very helpful.
And then the last question really to you, Christian, is sort of tying to Andreas' question, but asking it differently. I mean, your share price hovers around EUR 18 to EUR 20, and you're basically doing a lot operationally. I guess the Achilles heel has always been your anchor shareholder dropping shares at untimely manners. Now that they are 25% of the free float and your balance sheet is robust. Is there a likelihood that you sort of backstop them and therefore prevent this untimely shares coming to the market?
Thank you, Jaideep. I suggest the first one, Maike takes on Health & Care. Christian, the next 2 on 2025 and our majority shareholder [Indiscernible].
And regarding your Health & Care question, maybe let me shed some light there. On the one hand side, we mentioned before that the Health Care, especially, yes, the Health Care business is very much H2 centered. So we will see better margins and also better sales in the second half of the year. This is a typical seasonality we have in our Health Care business line.
Also, what we have -- what we see and what we have expected is, although we build our lipid plant production in the U.S., it is clear that with our mRNA technology, this is ramping up only in the next couple of, let's say, 2 to 3 years. This was planned like this. And because we are currently not with -- struck by with covid-19 or another pandemic situation, the [ lipid ] sales is of course lower. As I said, that was totally expected like this. So we see some, I would call it maybe some also challengers. We are pruning our business line in Health Care currently. But from an expectation perspective, we are perfectly in line.
And also, that also holds true for Care Solutions. There is a constant pruning going on. We see now the ramp up of the biosurfactants plant. And so this is why it's becoming bigger and bigger. And we are going more and more in this specialty pocket.
And with that, I hope that was helpful. I hand over to Christian.
Thanks a lot, Maike. I guess you are pretty well informed about the RAG. And you are so right. The CEO of the RAG Foundation, the Chairman of the RAG Foundation, Bernd Tönjes has announced a couple of weeks ago publicly, during the annual press conference of the Foundation, that they are committed to hold 25% in Evonik. And having said this, and taking in mind that they have outstanding exchangeables of an amount by, give or take, 20% of Evonik shares. It is a fair assumption that they are not far away from this goal. So in other words, the so often cited so called overhang topic is frankly and freely no longer existing.
Having said this, you have asked about another detail. If we could buy share backs directly from RAG Foundation, here it is that we are constrained to do so. It is from a legal point, in other words, close to be impossible. So that is not an opportunity which we do have at hand.
Then there was a third question of yours. It is about our expectations for 2025. Let's keep it like this. This year will be, I dare say, even at the conservative as you know, this year will be a pretty good one for Evonik Industries. And it is now summer 2024 little bit hard. A little bit hard to predict what we will see in 2025. Please take in consideration, we do have to deal with political turmoils, we do have to deal with economical headwind, with inflation, with the global recession and so on. But we I'm sorry, but we, as Evonik, we are, let's say, confident in a robust way. And that is, for example, because of 3 nameable self-helping factors, self-helping measures we have already in place for the next year.
First, we will have a significant, a significant savings impact from our Evonik Tailor Made program, which will be around an amount of, give or take, EUR 150 million.
Second, think about the benefits, the additional benefits from our business restructuring programs here. Please, for example, think about Animal Nutrition, which will contribute in 2025 additional EUR 100 million.
And then that is what we have in mind, in respect of the third point, think about lower energy costs for Evonik Industries. And here we judge it could be an amount of around EUR 50 million, which would come additionally in.
So in other words, it might be, it might be that in 2025, there will be a hefty and hefty hail storm outside. But we doing our homework, focusing on our self-helping measures and being invested in the right pockets of growth. We are, in this respect, really keen on doing better than this year, so far, our answers to your questions.
The next question comes from the line of Chetan Udeshi with JPMorgan.
I had a very quick question. Given the volatility and Christian, you mentioned the visibility is still low. I just wanted to -- I was just curious, what is your pulse of where we are in the cycle right now? I mean, you guys play into different end markets. Clearly, you've seen ups and downs over the last 6 quarters. What is your pulse of where we are? I mean, do you think we found a proper bottom? Or do you think it's too difficult to see beyond August, you might have more wobbles down the line?
No, no. If you like, please. Ladies first.
I can start with the capacity utilization. That gives us some ideas on where we are, Chetan, and then Christian, if you want to add on that, let's do that.
So if I come --- if I try to answer your question regarding where we are, I think the volume, the capacity utilization, our plants give us probably quite a good idea on where we are. And we came from this super low volumes, super low profitability in 2023. And there we definitely have hit the trough. So we are coming back. We see that the volumes. It's always difficult because you know that we are in quite a few end markets, but the volumes are really coming back. It's not where it should be. So what we say roughly is everything beyond 80% utilization rate is very strong. We are clearly not there yet. In 2023 we had a utilization rate of 70%. So the fixed costs were really hurting us. And so now we are somewhere in between. So we are in 2024, we see a few percentages per percentage points coming up let's -- well between, let's say 75% roughly. And so we are getting better.
I think Christian has mentioned it before. We don't see this big macro improvement yet. We are in the right -- we haven't invested in the right pockets. We are pretty tough on our cost, but it's not all green out there.
So with that I hand over to Christian if you want to add something.
Thanks a lot, Maike. But I'm listening to you and here in this respect we're on the same page. It's really hard for me to add anything. So I guess that's it.
The next question comes from the line of Martin Roediger with Kepler Cheuvreux.
Your guidance, what are the implied parameters for the lower and the higher end of that range? And I'm particularly keen about your volume growth parameters. You mentioned that the low end is very unlikely, although obviously indicating that things massively worsen from what you see at the beginning of Q3.
Then secondly, the guidance range was already wide at the beginning of the year with a spread of EUR 300 million. And that spread is unchanged. Can you explain why you did not reduce the widespread knowing that H1 is already in your books, and Evonik is specialty chemical company, which normally means low volatility in earnings and margins?
And the third question is on CapEx, you guide for EUR 750 million this year, down from last year. At your last Capital Markets Day in 2022, you said that the mid-term CapEx will be between EUR 900 million and EUR 1 billion annually, partly because of the next generation technologies investments. So do you intend to get back to this corridor? And should we expect that to happen in the years to come? And also, is this corridor average figure so that it eventually could be that in some years you will be above that average range of EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion?
I try to tackle your question about our guidance quality. Maybe, please forgive me, but first of all, I want to express that we are a little bit, let me say, proud what we've gained already this year. And that means also -- that holds also true for increasing our guidance, our guidance range by EUR 200 million and fair, I guess, to assume, to say that that is somewhat like a strong statement.
The midpoint, what we have talked about was in the older guidance and in the former guidance, one point, what was it, EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 2 billion. So midpoint was EUR 1,850 million. Now it is from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 2.2 million. So in other words, EUR 2,050 million. And as you know, because of listening to our call, we have already given you some hint that even I, that even we couldn't ignore that there is some room that it could come out better.
Now about the range, my God, please forgive me. Is it a broader range? Is it a tighter range? Is it worthwhile sometimes to narrow the range? Or is it more prudent to lift the range up? It depends. It depends. And here, I guess it is fair to say that sometimes the ideas about how to deal are somewhat different, but worthwhile. And most important is that we are the ones having lifted up our guidance range, that we are the ones who are, in respect of EBITDA development in this year, are significantly above our peers, and that we are the ones who have already, during the first days of the year, said without, we will do so without once more, without any pronounced macro recovery. So that is what I could give to you about the guidance range and meeting you next time, maybe during an investors and analyst conference, we could have a beer about it, discussing the question, is it more clever to lift it up? Is it more clever to tighten or to narrow the guidance range? I guess that is a question. It depends.
And with this to Maike.
Yes, with this to me. I think what is left for me to answer is, on the one hand side, your question regarding volume assumptions for H2, which is pretty easy on H1 level. So we see that the Q4 seasonality, of course, is a little bit always lower. And I think Christian has mentioned that we expect pre-merge H1, same level like H2 minus the seasonality in Q4, and that also goes for the volumes.
Regarding your capex, the EUR 750 million, what is the mid-term level? I think the EUR 750 million is probably on a lower end versus fortunately, we don't see any effect that we will need to put another EUR 250 million on 2025 to reach the EUR 1 billion. So we won't see a EUR 1.25 billion CapEx in the years to come. So this is the reason on the one hand side we have mentioned the volume. So we have some time that volumes are -- utilization rates are at the 100% level, so we don't need to put additional debottlenecking CapEx into our assumptions.
And also, we have moved into our specialty chemical, a little asset investment lighter region. So I think the EUR 900 million to EUR 1 billion lies behind us. And we don't see the EUR 750. I think that was probably on a lower end. If you expect a little higher, EUR 800 million plus, then I think you are good to go. I hope that was helpful.
The next and last question comes from the line of Jonathan Chung with Morgan Stanley.
I've got 2, please. The first one on Crosslinkers. I think in previous quarters you flagged that there are some competition pressure in Crosslinkers. Do you still see that as a weakness in Q2 and in Q3? And then more broadly in Specialty Additives, based on your current run rate order book, when do you think this division will return to the EUR 900 million EBITDA that you flagged on the slides?
And then my second question is around your Tailor Made program, which is largely personnel-driven. I noted that one of your talents recently moved to head up Croda's Life Science business.
Do you feel that Evonik will save cost, but at the expense of your technology competitiveness because your talents are moving to the competitions?
I take the second question about your possible concerns of the impact of Evonik Tailor Made. Here we at Evonik, here's a very simple saying that goes like this, good employees do sometimes leave, better employees do for sure come. Having said this, Evonik Tailor Made will help and will therefore open gates, very attractive gates for our, let me say, talents, highly gifted talents, that is somewhat like a booster for their career. And therefore, we do believe, we are convinced that also in this respect, Evonik Tailor Made will benefit, the company will benefit from Evonik Tailor Made also in enhancing and bettering the careers of our highly gifted talents. And once again, good men leave, good employees leave, better ones do come, and we do hire.
And with this, to Maike.
Yes, Jonathan, and with that to the Crosslinkers, Specialty Additive question. Yes, Crosslinkers, we have not put it today too much on the -- onto the, yes, scene, but Crosslinkers still feel competitive pressure. We had some, you call it smart inventory management here in Q2. So it was stronger, put it like this, than expected, despite an additional shutdown, a planned shutdown we had. But it's still not there where it was before. So this is, you are totally right, Specialty Additives is still currently limited to catch up to the historical levels by Crosslinkers. And that's pretty much all I can say that, yes, you were totally right in your estimation.
And with that, I hand over to the closing remarks by Christian.
Thanks a lot, dear Maike. Ladies and gentlemen, it was a great pleasure for us having had you today. For a summer vacation, we wish you all the best and hope to see you soon in person during an investors or analyst conference. So take care and all the best.
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