Bechtle AG

XETRA:BC8

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our analyst call on Q3 and thus also on the first 9 months of the ongoing financial year 2022 of Bechtle AG. I'm very happy to see that many of you are interested in our company. The year is trying to close the general framework conditions we've been dealing with for the whole year far from over. We all know that and the war in Russia - of Russia in Ukraine is unrelenting, and there is high-risk inflation. The situation in the global supply chain has improved somewhat, but it's still far from being back to normal. And also, the situation around COVID-19 is still with us, and we'll have to wait and see how we get through this winter together.

Against this general backdrop, we're very happy that in Q3, Bechtle AG has developed very positively. We're a rock in stormy seas as it were. And we'll show you the numbers in a minute that will reflect that trend. But first of all, just quick technical remark by way of exception. I'm not going to be the one presenting the presentation today, but Martin Link, the Head of Investor Relations. The reason for this is that I am somewhat sick. So if you know me, you will have heard that my voice is not what it usually is, but I am going to be ready to answer your questions in the Q&A session later on. So I hope that you will understand why we have chosen to have Mr. Link present the presentation.

[Martin Link, executive]

[Interpreted] Good morning, everyone. Even though I'm a different speakers, the presentation as a whole is going to remain unchanged. It is subdivided in 4 major sections. We're first going to take a look at the key financials for Q3. And we'll take a quick glance at our share performance. We'll also look at the highlights, the non-financial highlights of Q3. And of course, we'll also end with an outlook for the remainder of the year, although it's already November now. Let's start with business development. I'm sure you've looked at the numbers that we published at 7:30, and you will have seen that we have experienced an unchanged high pace of growth at basically driven by our customers consistently high demand for IT solutions.

We're not yet registering any major restraint on the part of our customers. This is especially important because we've been asked many times whether we are seeing the first indications for recession, but that is definitely not the case across the board for our customers. Our customers have recognized the high level of relevance of IT and investments continue at a high level. At the same time, we are becoming better at gradually reducing our historically high order backlog compared with the level at June 30th, 2022, it has already decreased by around EUR 200 million to EUR 1.6 billion. We also see this positive trend reflected in the development of our business volume.

Business volume growth gained further momentum in the third quarter, now totaling over 20%, even more momentum than in the first 2 quarters of the year at 18.9%, most of the growth we saw in Q3 was organic. In the first 9 months of the current year, our growth rate was almost 15%, given the challenging underlying conditions, I consider this a really impressive performance. Another thing you see looking at these figures is that in a quarter like the one under review Q3, that is it becomes particularly clear how important it is to also focus on business volume. We introduced this ratio as an alternative ratio because software revenues are no longer to be reported under revenue according to IFRS 15. So business volume is the only ratio that fully reflects the scope of our software business.

And this business, unfortunately, we're no longer able to show it under our revenue is a very important business area and has been one of the growth drivers in Q3. From here, let's turn to our revenue with revenue growth at 14.6%. Bechtle managed to maintain the high level of the previous quarter. Organic revenue growth was 12.7%. You see high discrepancy between business volume and revenue, and this is due to a higher demand for software overall in Q3, but also 2 large volume software business that basically conducted in the period under review. But demand was also high in the service and hardware areas. As figures show, the global supply chain situation has continued to improve. But we've heard it were far from business as usual, and we see improvement for individual product categories only and not yet across the board.

Let's now take a look at revenue development in the segments and the different regions. In the segment view, we see that the roles that we've seen signed over the past few quarters have been reversed. In the third quarter, our growth engine was the IT System House and Managed Services segment. At 21.7%, we were able to significantly boost sales in Q3 organic sales to increase considerably by 18.6%. And Year-to-date, we were able to grow from quarter-to-quarter. Business is returning to normal after COVID-19 and customers are increasingly investing in their existing IT infrastructure.

We've always pointed out that our customers have focused on the newly created home office structures and investments into on-site infrastructures were not prevalent in 2020 and '21. So there is a catch-up effect. And as a rule, the revenue growth of 21.7% also includes some large volume projects at such a level of sales growth, this is stating the obvious. In the IT e-commerce segment, revenue increased by 3% compared to the previous quarter. In addition to the challenging comparative figures from the previous year. This is also due to high software share in the business. In terms of business volume, however, growth in this leasing segment was at a remarkable 7.4%. So the 3% is somewhat misleading.

But still, we see that the software business is a driver. Let's quickly take a look at the distinction between Germany and abroad. The picture is rather balanced with a slight advantage for our companies abroad. And this brings us to the development of our earnings, and we will first take a look at EBIT trends by quarter. It is relatively obvious that pressure has increased from quarter-to-quarter, a trend we anticipated for 2 main reasons: one, some of the cost savings resulting from the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, no longer applied in the course of this year.

And the effect was even stronger than anticipated, and we have seen that things went back to normal, and the cost base increased year-on-year, particularly in the case of vehicle costs and travel expenses. Secondly, inflation has left its mark in the form of higher costs. especially in the area of facility costs due to the increase in energy prices. What is more, our business in Q3 was characterized by a comparatively high proportion of large volume and thus low margin hardware and software projects. And finally, we were up against a positive net extraordinary effect of EUR 3 million in the previous year. We managed to at least partially offset this effect by writing back risk provisions in Q3. So it was a low-digit million amount.

Let's take a look at the development of our segments. In the System House segment, this effect was more pronounced due to close and direct customer contact, vehicle costs are more associated with this segment's business model. Likewise, building costs have a greater impact since we're talking about more than 80 different locations. And the large-volume projects mostly took place in the System House segment, which also resulted in greater pressure on our earnings and margins. In addition, the one-off effect in the previous year was fully accounted for by this segment, the System House segment.

So the effects are more marked in this segment. But having said that, a margin of 6% in the System House segment is still very good. So the level of the previous year, 7.8% is definitely not the normal numbers. In addition to the offsetting effects of all these factors, there is yet another reason for the very positive development in the IT e-commerce segment, thanks to the higher share of smaller-scale business, price effects have had a more positive effect impact and these effects had been obviously in the first 2 quarters for both segments, but this has changed somewhat.

Let's now take a look at cash flow still showing a positive trend. Operating cash flow in Q3 was minus EUR 28.3 million. It goes without saying that we cannot be satisfied with this number. But as you can see in this chart, there are some positive aspects here, which we want to explain. One is that cash outflow from inflated inventories no longer reached the high level of the previous year. And the same goes for the buildup in accounts receivable. For both items, we see positive effects now. And this is, of course, a trend that we would like to see continue towards the end of the year.

Another thing we saw in Q3 was that cash outflow from the reduction of accounts payable is more marked. However, this effect was deliberate, and we trust that we can manage this effect in Q4. It's difficult to manage inventories. It all depends on the supply chain shortages. It depends on whether our customers are ready to accept partial deliveries. It also depends on revenue growth in Q3 or Q4 rather. So we don't have much leverage here. But in terms of accounts payable, we have some discretion, and we are planning to do -- use that discretion.

Let's now turn to our head count development. As of September 30th, 2022, baseless head count was 13,789. This equals 8.2% or 1,045 people more than in the same quarter last year. 239 new colleagues joined basically in the course of acquisitions, which amounts to around 1/4 of the total increase. In organic terms, our head count grew by 6.3%. In addition to recruiting new employees, the focus of human resources work at Bechtle has always been on training and further education and that was definitely the case in Q3. We continuously invest in certifications for our employees, for instance, in the vital areas of security and multi-cloud architectures.

Now I'm going to be brief, but still, we'll take a look at the performance of our Bechtle share. Now we're not an outlier. The situation on the stock markets remains very tense. The reasons are well known. Dr. Olemotz already mentioned the framework conditions, the war in Ukraine with its economic rig percussions such as the energy crisis and increased inflation, the ongoing problems in the global supply chains, the uncertainties about the overall economic development and the interest rate policy of the central banks. So this unfavorable mix has also hit the development of our share. So you can see here that since the beginning of the year, our share price has dropped with slight ups and downs in July and August. And you know the reasons tech values are under pressure.

And the situation is still ongoing. There's the assumption that cap values show higher flexibility and also sensitivity to interest rates, whether this is true remains to be seen. And we can see that this is a trend that we cannot simply ignore or withdraw from and it also hits us. So it's not possible for a single share to withdraw from that. We had excellent press statements such as, for example, the further internationalization. If you take a look at the share price development, you can see that this hasn't really reflected itself on our share place. So these statements come and go and afterwards, the share price of Bechtle just follows the overall trend of the stock market, which this year has been downwards, unfortunately. Now as unfortunate, this is for our shareholders on the one hand, that doesn't really affect us because we still focus on our operational business because we are convinced that valuation in the capital markets will also reward our success.

As usual, let's then talk about the non-financial special highlights in Q3. Now we'll talk about the 3 highlights, and they cover our strategically most important fields of action, namely training and securing skilled workers, our international positioning, and our further expansion of cloud services. Let's start with some beautiful news regarding the new training year, which started in September 2022. In the trailing year 2022, Bechtle set a new record with 256 trainees and bachelor students, more young people started their careers at Bechtle than ever before.

Across the group, we're currently training 815 junior staff in 12 technical and commercial apprenticeships and 9 deal university program students, 106 more than in the previous year. The training ratio across the group is around 6% and Bechtle aims to increase this to 10% by 2030, as you know. There's a new vocational training course because we've now got the so-called digitalization management assistant. And as far as the causes of study are concerned, we've now got cybersecurity, data science, and software engineering as new degrees.

So as you can see that with vocational training and university degrees, we're leading again. The next highlight concerns a partner award that we're particularly pleased about. Let me say this upfront. Every day, we could come up with statements about awards, almost every day. And let's just talk about this one here because it's really special for us. The U.S. network specialist Cisco has honored bases public sector partner of the year in the EMEA region. With this award, the manufacturer once again acknowledges the outstanding development of the corporation and public sector digitalization projects in the modernization of network infrastructure for customers from all industries.

Why is that so special? For 2 reasons. They're honoring our international positioning because this EMEA award doesn't focus on our strength in the [ DACH ] region, but recognized specialty as an international player. And you know that internationalization is particularly important in our strategy. It's important to us to be a really true European player. Therefore, we're pleased that Cisco has recognized us as an international player and has given us that fantastic award. Now in addition, the award underlines our extremely successful positioning in the public sector. Bechtle is one of Cisco's strongest partners in the education sector, especially in the high-growth market segments of schools and universities. Now the third highlight is the expansion of our data center capacity to our customers. Bechtle is expanding its capacity for private cloud services with a new data center in the Rhine-Neckar metropolitan region.

To this end, we are cooperating with a co-location provider, PFALZKOM. In addition to high availability and comprehensive security, PFALZKOM's data centers already meet the essential criteria of the climate-neutral data center packed whether significantly expanding the existing capacities is not only important for us, but customers can basically then use this also for their sustainability reporting. They can report that they are using a data center, which is fulfilling largely all of the criteria of the climate-neutral data center requirements. And therefore, this is important also for the usage of renewable energies. So the Bechtle data center built in Mutterstadt enables the highly available and scalable operation of private cloud services.

And it allows us to use cloud services, and this will be good news for medium-sized and large companies as well as public clients. To conclude the presentation, I would like to take a look at the remaining weeks of the year and give you our outlook. Now it's the middle of November, the year 2022 will be soon over. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. We still don't know what the last weeks of December and even November will look like. And unfortunately, there will, of course, also be uncertainty, especially for the year 2023. We at Bechtle be very satisfied with what we have achieved so far. The year-to-date development is completely in line with our expectations and in some cases, even exceeds them.

And you've seen this by looking at our figures. However, the fourth quarter is again decisive for the success of the year as a whole. And therefore, some of you who've been also attending Capital Markets Day you have been chatting with us in between. We'll know this, we are confirming our outlook, our forecast for 2022. So even back in August with the Q2 figures, we confirm the guidance, and we haven't increased it. Some of you might have expected that we're not increasing it.

Let me also tell you why we're fully aware that the top line is above our guidance about -- above our forecast. And that the good chances we will exceed it. Also, the October figures are not the reason as to why we're confirming our guidance or our forecast because, again, the top-line growth is extremely good and has reached a great level. However, the forecast is composed of various components after all. And there's not only top-line growth, but also bottom-line growth.

And then you also have to consider the margin development. And if we don't increase our forecast, it doesn't mean that there will be a bad top-line development in Q4, but it means that uncertainties regarding cost development are extremely high. And the overall macroeconomic development continues to be uncertain. And for that reason, we prefer to leave our forecast, our guidance as it is. And let me just give you the following because if I'm in the [ drivers ] side might also be allowed to make a personal comment. If we consider that other companies on 2 occasions have hard to correct the guidance downwards twice.

We think it's very wise of best leave our guidance as it is. That doesn't have to be a disappointment to the capital market. As I just explained, we believe that we have a very clear view on top-line development. Yes, we're exceeding our forecast, but uncertainties regarding bottom line and margin are such that we should be in line with the consensus of the capital market. We're still positive and optimistic as far as the trend towards the end of the year is concerned and also the development in 2023. So that was it. Thank you very much indeed for listening.

And we're now looking forward, Dr. Olemotz and myself to answering your questions.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] [Operator Instructions] We'll start with the German language questions and then switch over to the English room. We first have Knut Woller of Baader Bank.

[Knut Woller, analyst]

[Interpreted] I hope you'll be well soon, Dr. Olemotz. And first question, strong growth in System House managed services. So would you say that the weakness in consumer business helps you somewhat also with a view to supply chain shortages that prevail? And if we assume that this were to continue in the next year, what options do you have in order to keep the margins at a high level? That was my first question. Second question on business volume. You said that there is strong demand for software, also some large volume orders. So would you say that software demand provides support for your business overall? And we also said that inventories have built up less quickly than in the previous year. What do you expect? When are we going to see a reduction of inventories? Are you expecting a further slowdown of the previous trend? What is your outlook for the coming year?

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Thank you very much, Mr. Woller for your questions and also for wishing me well. Much appreciated. So one by one, growth in the System House and Managed Services segment. Of course, it's also supported by the weakness you mentioned of the B2C business, especially when it comes to the client business, the classical modern workplace business as it were. So it really helps us that manufacturers are rerouting volumes, so to speak. So at any rate, that would provide some tailwind for our development. Now going forward, also in connection with our order backlog, Mr. Link has said it, there has been a reduction -- order backlog amounting to EUR 200 million in a single quarter.

Now if you remember, we always said that at the peak of EUR 1.8 billion to EUR 2 billion order backlog, we said that it's going to take 6 to 12 months at least to get back to normal levels. And I think our numbers fit very well here. So with that volume of EUR 200 million, we feel quite good. And of course, you're right, the IT system has a Managed Services segment benefits from this trend in particular because we've given you the rationale in the past because here, we find large volume projects that are made up of different components.

So your classical case would be network components with delivery times of 6 to 12 months, even beyond that in some cases. So in some small projects and data center projects, these are impacted and were impacted. But now this trend is starting to reverse. And the larger projects will now benefit from that. As far as the margin level is concerned, it is true. We're still at a comparatively good level, especially when you look in the rearview mirror, we're still very profitable in our classical System House business, but Mr. Link has said it.

More and more, we see cost inflation, leaving its mark especially energy costs, travel expenses, building costs. And that's quite really in our case. So it's hard to cost whether we'll be able to maintain our margin level. It will depend on the development of the front-end and back-end margins, whether we'll be able to push through higher price points in this environment. All of this amounts to the uncertainties that Mr. Link mentioned. And here, our rationale is quite consistent, and it doesn't fit the general environment, although some figures may have suggested that we increase our guidance.

But in the general environment, we do not think it would be sound to do that. And we said that uncertainties were simply too high at this point in time. But after this good month of October, we're quite bullish going into the rest of the quarter. The development of business volume, which has been very positive, I have to say, is also thanks to the development of our cloud business, not exclusively so, but very much so. So in the first 9 months of the year, we're at 60% above the level of the previous year, which is really a fantastic development. And we assume that taking advantage of the year-end sprint, we will be able to further grow this percentage growth significantly, whether it will be enough to double revenue well, we'll have to wait and see, but growth rates are very impressive and also serves as a confirmation of our cloud strategy.

And secondly, Mr. Link mentioned it during the presentation, there are some large-volume software deals, which meant that percentage growth of our business volume was as strong as it was also compared to the still impressive revenue growth in this quarter. And this positive discrepancy is rather unusual, I admit, but it is thanks to our software business, especially also in the enterprise segment and with public sector clients. And the last part of your question was about the cash flow and the trend going forward.

We saw that in the past 3 quarters of this year, we already had a very sustainable positive trend here, and we always pointed out what the reasons for this trend were, and it has become clear, I believe, in the general macroeconomic environment that these causes haven't changed substantially. Still, we need to work with a higher capital tie-up. So the major cash flow drivers remain under pressure, unchanged. And we managed on the other hand, to get closer to the most important levers in this context, and we're quite confident that we will manage to maintain this positive trend in Q4.

So we believe that the good trend we saw in the first 3 quarters can be maintained, and there will be yet more positive development of cash flow in Q4 more so than last year even. And of course, we hope that we'll be able to reduce our inventories, but that would require supply chains to work better as we've seen in recent weeks and months, but we definitely depend on our supply chain in this context.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] Yannik Siering from Stifel is asking the next question.

[Yannik Siering, analyst]

[Interpreted] Best wishes to you, Dr. Olemotz. 4 questions. First, the number of employees for a couple of quarters, there's been a strong increase. Now is that an expression that you're very confident in the development in 2023, I wonder? Next question, what are the most important levers to control increasing costs in many areas, especially in view of 2023? Then regarding your M&A pipeline, would you kindly talk about that briefly? Is it realistic that even this year, there will be further acquisitions after the couple of acquisitions you've already talked about this year? And last question regarding bonus, payments and kickbacks. How significant was that aspect also considering a further strong growth in Q3?

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Thank you very much, Mr. Siering, for these questions. That gives me the opportunity of talking about the business momentum and breaking it down, and that might also be important for the other listeners because they are also important for the development going forward in 2023, and that was your question. Let's start about the last question, development of bonus payments and kickbacks. So the back-end margin.

We still have a situation, and you can see this quite clearly if you compare our growth rates with those of our peers that we are gaining market shares significantly so. This is not a new situation for us because especially in times where the going gets tough a little bit, if I may put it like this, as Bechtle. When I started, I talked about the rock, that were solid as a rock when I started my presentation. And so especially when the going gets tough, we usually show that we're very resilient indeed. That's decisively so thanks to the market position that we've developed over the last decades, we have to say. And in that, we also be in the back-end margin from that.

Currently, we're one of the few big manufacturers or resellers that a manufacturer has to count on when they're operating in a difficult market environment. And if they want to carry on growing at double-digit rates. And for the big manufacturers, share of wallet with Bechtle, this is an important KPI, which is decisive at the end of the day, also for the way how you shape your kickback and bonus programs. And in all of those programs, basically speaking, we are more than good in the money because all of our growth plans with the shown figures, revenues plus 15%, almost growth, business volume, even more than that, that's important because big OEMs are also software manufacturers.

So all of our growth programs have been beaten with our growth rate. And that has contributed strongly to our back-end margin still despite the strong cost increases that we have, having led to a situation where we believe that our overall margin is very comfortable also because the front-end margin is still comparably stable because of the ongoing delivery issues and supply issues. So I assume that if we're looking forward now that going forward, the general situation will continue in the new year.

Never waste a good crisis is what you sometimes say there's this sloppy thing. So we assume that 2023, of course, will not be an easy year. However, we believe it could be here at least for the strategically strong-positioned companies in our industry, where despite worsening framework conditions, you can use the opportunity to gain market shares, and that is our clearly defined target also for next year. And what is helping us here, and that might sound strange now against the backdrop of the cash flow, which is still under pressure, of course, is our financial strength.

Because in this situation, the tied-up capital has gone up and we have got sufficiently high liquidity, thanks to an increase in line so that our business can still be driven going forward with a growth strategy. And you can only do that if you are very solidly positioned. And if there are many other small companies in our industry that certainly don't have that same possibility, and therefore, higher capital tie-up, then hampers their growth because they can't prefinance growth. The figures we have now presented for Q3 do show that Bechtle is managing very well indeed.

Where are we positioned in terms of M&A projects, I'm pretty confident that this year, we will come forward with an announcement, maybe more than one However, due to the most recent development, I just got an update this morning. So please bear with me if I can't tell you whether this will be in France, U.K. or the Netherlands. However, at least 1 of the 3 countries or at least in 1 of the 3 countries it should work out.

So this is a statement, Mr. Siering that we'll have to suffice right now. As far as the development of employees is concerned, the absolute figure is diluting a little bit because there have been many acquisitions that explain these figures. So the organic growth of employees is such that the growth is 6.3%. And therefore, if we compare this with the past, it's still below the speed that we have wanted to grow at, but we're growing. And usually, at least a prudent businessman only hires or increases their head count if they're confident in the company's future.

And in our case, that certainly applies, although we are a little bit more cautious, we do assume that 2023 will again be a good year for Bechtle, whatever this will mean then at the end of the day in figures. And those topics which explain the growth of employees or demographic change, lack of talent, qualification. Those topics continue to exist just because other factors are dominating the news these days. But we mustn't overreact. So we believe that with a slightly reduced but still visible organic growth of staff we feel it is. 6.3% is the exact same growth rate that we had in Q2 without big acquisitions either. So no change in the hirings. Where are the levers considering higher costs? Certainly, I don't want to avoid that question either. It's the same factors that each and every company has to address.

So we make sure that the head count increase remains within a certain range. We've just said this, due to the salary structure in Bechtle, we've got high variable components across the bench and that gives us the possibility of using variable salary components which are performance focused. We can grow this way and therefore, shift the cost pressure on variable salary components. We've got not so many possibilities to deviate from the high energy costs, such as all of the other companies. We rely on Germany as a location of course. But one possibility we're managing quite successfully these days continues to be a pretty stable front and back-end margin.

We've already talked about the back-end margin a minute ago. But also the front-end margin, if we compare it with a normal situation of the past, if I may put it like this, continues to be rather stable. So we're pretty confident that also in '23, with the admittedly worsening framework conditions, we will still manage quite well. I'd like to add that we will try to pass on higher costs as far as possible to our customers, but that's not always possible. If you've got extremely well-trained IT service providers, it's easier.

But if you're talking about admin costs, so it's difficult to pass them on to the customers. But we have to watch out that we managed to increase productivity because then you can also explain higher HR costs, personnel costs. So these are the challenges for '23. You've also mentioned this, and that's true. And you've also seen that the organic growth is 6.3% top-line growth is 20%, revenue growth, 14%. So that's not so bad. That's the figures from Q3. Mr. Siering that was all you wanted to ask?

[Operator]

[Interpreted] Now Martin Jungfleisch from BNP Paribas is asking the next question.

[Martin Jungfleisch, analyst]

[Interpreted] 2 questions. First, the demand situation. Is there a difference between the public sector, the medium-sized and the bigger companies? And how -- to what degree do you see a shift from investments, for example, from typical workstations to more complex projects and what effects should that have on your margin? And the second question regards the e-commerce segment growth here was pretty low with 3% and in Q3. Can you suggest what the development was driven -- to what grade was driven by public sector as opposed to the private sector? And you noticed a certain restrained by customers but hasn't historically a reduction in e-commerce been an indicator for a reduction in the overall business?

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Mr. Jungfleisch, let me start with the second question, which was about the structure of our demand. Indeed, we have noticed that currently, but that is certainly just true for the moment and not structurally true. But in the third quarter, in particular, not in the first half of the year, our enterprise business and also the public sector business has developed better than our classical SMB business. So that's also shown that coming from our basis, which is the broad anchoring in SMB business, which is still true. Enterprise business and the public business in the last years has been strengthened strongly, and we're benefiting from this.

And especially now, thanks to our stronger international positioning, we are well positioned. And that's why we have received the awards and have chosen to talk to you about the Cisco award because this is about our broader international positioning. And thanks to that, we have managed to become a partner of big enterprise customers starting from Germany usually. So the typical situation is that -- we are in touch with big German corporations that have chosen us as their IT service provider because we can accompany them abroad with a classical hard and software business and going beyond that, we can also then orchestrate the service business.

And it still applies that there are not all that many companies in our industry that can do this. And that's still surprising. There are not that many who can do this. There's no European provider that would be capable of providing, at the same time, campaigns in 14 countries about product launches. That is still the situation. And against this backdrop, we have been benefiting from this, and we've also benefited from this in Q3. So if you wish, Mr. Jungfleisch, that's the structural change in business.

However, we're assuming that in Q4, because of the strength of the public business, this will come into perspective a little bit. October has already shown that this will exactly happen probably. So because of the relative strength of the public business, again, we will get back to normal if we want to call it that, as far as the demand is concerned. Now in terms of technological change in our projects, and that was your second question. It's not the case that currently big complex projects are high-end demand. They are supplied and fulfilled, but that is due to the fact that, as I mentioned earlier on, in -- they are in our order books.

So what this means is that current demand behavior doesn't really reflect this. But thanks to the improved delivery capabilities and the fact that many delivery projects were tied for 12 months in the high order book. Indeed, you're right. As far as the content of your comment is concerned. But this change isn't due to current changes, but rather due that to the fact that we had a higher share of these projects in our order book. And server storage and network components, those are the product categories where it's still difficult. And if the customer was interested in such a project, we then have to say, well, you can get this in 6 to 12 months.

So because of current uncertainties, the customer says, "Well, in that case, I'd rather than have the high volume, small business because I can receive the product in a couple of weeks." That's the main reason. So it's not that customers wouldn't be interested in these projects, but currently, they can't be implemented in short term. The third question then, let me have a little bit more strong wording. The 3% e-commerce growth, a weak signal is your question. So this is show that we're going up against the crisis?

I don't see this at all. The 3% today is a one-off effect, I believe. Now if I remember correctly, we had a very strong development in the same period of the last year, it was a very strong value that we had then in e-commerce, and that was even due to the fact that we had 1 or 2 really big customer projects, which were unusually big. That's why I even say that if we manage to compensate this with running business in the structure, then the 3% to me, are very strong value.

And apart from this, I assume that also in e-commerce will grow again in Q4 and October has already shown that trend going in the right direction. Let me just corroborate this by giving you a couple of [ kips ] 3.4% was the growth in Q3 '21. So that's a strong basis of the last year. And let me also point out that even in the presentation, I said that 3% revenues, yes, doesn't look like a lot. But in business volume, we grew by 7.4%. So the software business mustn't be forgotten, 7.4% doesn't look weak at all, is it or customer restraint.

You're right, e-commerce, is the segment that much more quickly and much more sensitively react to overall macroeconomic conditions. And you might interpret, therefore, that e-commerce develops weekly, more weak than System House, but that is more that we had a extremely high level last year, and the October figures do not show any weakness. In e-commerce abroad, we grew at double-digit rates. So if you wanted to interpret a weakness here, then if anything, this would be in Germany, but certainly not across Europe. And that -- this is also my feeling here that in Germany, there's much more talk about recession than abroad. In France, for example, that doesn't seem to be a big issue at all.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] Next question is by Florian Treisch by Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Florian Treisch, analyst]

[Interpreted] I have 1 or 2 questions about provisions. You said that you wrote back some provisions. My question would be, which area did that happen in? And second question, you set up provisions for long-term risks where you said that if customers were to stick to prices that were originally agreed. Is that a problem now availability is back and people would think why should we grant a higher price for Bechtle? Is that a risk for you? And also, I would like to wish you well.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Thank you. Let me start by starting with the topic of penalties. I said it in my presentation, it's a low single-digit number that we wrote back. As I said, it's not a lot. And the well-known relationships still apply. We have a larger item in terms of provisions for penalties and then one for any impairments from accounts receivable. And the PSP IT service sale that happened last year was also compensated for. So in operating terms, the numbers are really basically the same. And to answer your question, going forward, I don't see that there is an increased risk here because we haven't seen any increase in customer requirements in that sense.

And we're not writing back provisions just any day. And we have sound calculations that we tested together with our auditors. And of course, we're not free to do as we please. And when we find that for a period of 9 months, not a single claim emerged in terms of demand, then this provision would have been risky for us at the end of the year at the latest. And in the current situation, it's definitely also something that we couldn't have continued beyond this year. Now risk positions for defaulting receivables. Here, of course, we're still going strong and in a difficult macroeconomic environment, there are some defaults that you would have to reckon with.

[Operator]

[Interpreted] Next question is by Andreas Wolf, Warburg Research.

[Andreas Wolf, analyst]

[Interpreted] I have a question on your orders on hand, and I would assume that you fixed your orders when there was the demand on the customer side. Now can it happen that the products are available, but at higher prices than were agreed at the time when customers voice their demand? So that could increase pressure on margins? I would assume that this is not the case, but maybe you can elaborate on that. And then a question on prices for nonlisted companies compared with multiple in the market. Third question relating to the supply side. Last year, you wouldn't have dreamt of asking such a question. But here we are, will Bechtle think about geographical diversification in order to reduce its dependency on individual regions?

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

[Interpreted] Well, Mr. Wolf, I'll start in the same sequence, higher prices and thus an imputed risk on margins for our orders on hand. It's not the case. I can assure you because our customers are still happy. Just imagine, you have a complex infrastructure and service project, which is all scheduled to be implemented and then you have to wait a year because our components are not available for it to be implemented. So as a customer, you are indeed happy to see that their components are available now and you can go through with your project.

Now the price discussion is no longer that important in that context. And it also applies to framework contracts where you don't have any price clauses, which is still the exception in our industry. But in the past, there was almost a price reduction that people could hope for every year. We are indeed looking at these kinds of discussions with our customers. But so far, we've been quite successful in our negotiations, and I do not believe that our orders on hand can only be reduced at a significantly lower margin than what we get in terms of new business.

Then next question, M&A and multiple. You're correct. There's a really high discrepancy between listed and nonlisted companies. The listed companies. And you can tell by looking at our company, here the multiples have clearly returned. But in the area of nonlisted companies, at least if we're talking about interesting companies, this is not the case yet to this extent. And some of the investment banks we're working together with have said that it will take at least half a year or a year before the valuation level has also penetrated the area of nonlisted companies.

So the 3 opportunities that I just hinted that in the U.K., in France and the Netherlands are all highly attractive companies. And well, they're not exactly cheap either. But rest assured, we are not going to pay more than we have to pay, and we're looking at multiples, of course. Then next question on supply and dependency on certain geographical regions. In the short term, you do not need to expect any change in our strategy.

Our strategy is very clear in the European countries where we're represented. We're still thinking about acquisitions in order to strengthen our footprint. And in countries where there is system integration, we want to strengthen our business where we only have e-commerce business so far. And so our European omnichannel approach, if I may say. So actually constitutes our strategy in terms of mergers and acquisitions. And remind you, current dependencies would not change that strategy because compared to the big vendors who need to think about whether they still have production facilities in China and which countries to move to. These are questions that we do not need to deal with at Bechtle. But unfortunately, of course, we're impacted indirectly. Now -- just to add a comment here, 80% of the global IT production comes from China, and that's a fact we cannot change. So even if we wanted to diversify, it wouldn't be possible yet.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Right now, we do not have any German-speaking questions. We'll change over to the English room now. And the first English question is from the line of Ross Jobber from Citi.

[Rosslyn Jobber, analyst]

A couple of questions, if I may. First of all, on costs, it's quite understandable that the COVID-related cost savings have now reversed. Could you just confirm that is entirely the case? Or do you think that in 2023, there will be a further bit of additional cost from a full year, if you like, of normalization on the cost base? So that's my first question. My second question is around revenue growth rates and whether or not you can give us some idea as to what impact third-party product price rises may have been either I presume, a tailwind as opposed to a headwind to the revenues in the third quarter. So to what extent did third-party price rises actually impact your revenue growth? And then the third point, just on head count plans, you very kindly explained a 6.3% organic head count growth. Just to get your thoughts for 2023, presumably you plan these things a long way in advance, is that the head count growth all else being equal, that you would expect in 2023?

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

Thank you for your questions. I'll start with the question regarding our cost basis. Do we expect further additional costs in '23? Yes, I expect some cost increases, especially coming from the wage side which is not covered in the actual figures so far, I have to say, but not in a, let's say, significant size. Third-party price rises, your second question are always a tailwind for us if the market except them. That is the exception from the rule. And your third question regarding our head count growth. Yes, I expect the growth being also limited in the coming fiscal year 2023. If it's a 6.3% or is it below or is it above that figure, it's not really reliable to answer, I would say, coming from the current figures. But I expect, let's say, be a disproportional figure regarding our top-line growth.

[Martin Link, executive]

If I may add to your second question, the tailwind from the higher prices, we have calculated that. It's roughly some 15% of our growth rate. That is our growth that is coming from the higher prices. So a smaller part. And now at least in the second quarter, that [ Thomas ] mentioned that 1/3 of that was coming from higher prices in the second quarter and the third quarter, it was not as high expected. In the second quarter was some 10% to 15% plus what or some 15%.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

So the major part of our growth is really based on higher volume.

[Rosslyn Jobber, analyst]

Great. One small question, if I may, as well. On e-commerce, I know it's the most international. I understand it's most international parts of the group. Was there much of an FX impact either way in e-commerce in Q3 on revenue?

[Martin Link, executive]

It's the same for both segments. Do you mean the price effects?

[Rosslyn Jobber, analyst]

No, the foreign exchange effects.

[Martin Link, executive]

Okay, sorry. The major part of the country, so you [ question are you can't ] -- we have a strong business in Switzerland. We have business in the U.K., but we have some positive effects in Switzerland coming from the high Swiss franc. But compared to the overall size of the group, net legible.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

We do have some U.S. dollar exposure as well. But as Martin already explained in a limited size. And if I remember right, it's 100% hedged.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Gustav Froberg from Berenberg.

[Gustav Froberg, analyst]

Most of mine have been answered, but I have one quick one on backlog. You mentioned backlog has come down quarter-on-quarter. And I was wondering if you could tell us a little bit about the revenue that you generated in Q3, whether or not a large portion of this has come from the backlog reduction? Or if there indeed has been a lot of new business as well within the quarter? And then as a short follow-up to that, how are you seeing the business developing into Q4? Are you mostly working down backlog? Or are you also receiving new orders from customers?

[Martin Link, executive]

Okay. We expect both good stuff. Just give us some time to have a look at the figures. If we adjust growth only in the third quarter, regarding the backlog issue you mentioned in your question, growth was something around 10% regarding the business volume, more or less. So it's a 50-50 situation. 50% of our growth came from the backlog issue and 50% is really new business.

[Gustav Froberg, analyst]

That's great. And into Q4, is the split similar 50-50? Or is it more backlog skewed?

[Martin Link, executive]

I expect it to be similar, and that comes from some, let's say, logistic challenges we are confronted with, especially in Germany. So 50-50 is probably a reliable ratio for the future as well. But I think 50 is reliable, but we should not expect that order backlog part is increasing because in the fourth quarter, normally, we all hope that we can see more or less normal fourth quarter. Normally, we have really a high order income. We have a high part of new business. And especially if you look at our public sector customers who normally invest more in the fourth quarter, we should not think that the order backlog as would be increasing.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

But at the end of the day, Gustav, you know that it mainly depends on the supply chain frictions we are still confronted with. And that is really not easy to predict regarding the development in the fourth quarter.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Michael Briest from UBS.

[Michael Briest, analyst]

Just continuing on the backlog, the orders -- or the backlog has obviously dropped to nearly a couple of hundred million quarter-on-quarter and yet the inventory has gone up. I would have expected more of the inventory was tied up in these incomplete orders. Can you maybe say how much of the backlog and inventory tied together? Because it's a little surprising that they're not both moving in the same direction. And then just in terms of the cost base, I got the impression that the reason you're not raising the guidance is you feel good about revenues, but there's a lot more uncertainty on cost. What specifically in the cost base for Q4, do you feel could surprise you one way or the other?

[Martin Link, executive]

Okay. Thank you for the question. So we would have hoped to see it in inventories to come down if we decrease our order backlog, given the fact that we have increased the revenue in the fourth so the third quarter by some 15%, it's just not possible to realize such a high number of revenue growth, you need to have products in the warehouse. So yes, we have decreased the inventory related to pending customer projects, but really to tell you how it is every place that was emptied in the warehouse was in the second -- was newly filled with new products coming in. That's the situation. That is a problem for inventory. It might be a poor cash flow that looking at the operating business, it's great to know that we don't use our order backlog and don't have any new incoming orders. So therefore, it's a positive news, but looking at inventory, and that is a definite inventory, yes, we could not decrease that.

And that is what I tried to point out in the presentation that it's really up to the development in the fourth quarter, whether we see a high revenue growth, then it will be hard to decrease inventory to decrease trade receivables. If we see a revenue growth, let's say, of 8%, 9%, yes, maybe it would be more realistic that we decreased sharply. Surely, we want to see a decrease in inventory. But if you say, decrease really a sharp decrease. It's all up to the business in the fourth quarter, it's up like Thomas eventually, it's up to the friction of the supply chain to the ability of the OEMs to send out products to us. So a lot of question marks, I know.

And the last point is that even if we could send out some of the long-standing projects and even if our customers right now are not so much asking for the, let's say, higher sophisticated large projects. Nevertheless, we get new orders of larger projects. And therefore, we have new inventory coming in because we must wait for some products to have the full amount to do the customer side. So that's the situation or the linking between inventory and order backlog though there's not so much leaking as you might would say.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

And regarding your second question, dealing with the question of potential cost surprises, which might occur in the fourth quarter. From my point of view, I see mainly direct and indirect energy cost-linked positions. We are -- we have a strong focus on our car costs, energy costs in general, heating costs and so on. And there is a lot of uncertainty, especially in Germany, how the prices for energy will develop in the fourth quarter. And that might lead to some surprises.

[Martin Link, executive]

We already had high car costs. We want it to fuel. We must not see -- we don't hope that we will see an increase in the fourth quarter. We had high riveting costs because all OEMs had their events this year, and most of these took place in the third quarter. [ HPE ] when in Las Vegas. And I don't know where our colleagues have been all around the world. With now in the fourth quarter with these events not taking place, it's such a high number, maybe the revenue costs will come down a little bit. But as Thomas said, the major impact or the major uncertainty is related to energy costs.

[Michael Briest, analyst]

And could you just maybe say how much of the inventory is tied up in the incomplete orders rather than that to fulfill new ones and have quick cycle time?

[Martin Link, executive]

It's still the major part of our inventory that is related to pending projects, some 80%. This number did not change because, as I mentioned, with some of the longer pending projects being sent out, we have new projects coming in. So it's still some 80%. There's no real change that, let's say, the free inventory is increasing and the binded inventory is decreasing. No change to that.

[Michael Briest, analyst]

And just a tiny one, have there been any order cancellations? Or is that just a natural decline as orders are fulfilled?

[Martin Link, executive]

No more cancellations than normally. So completely really only a small part. This business as usual, looking at that. So really, we still think that the order backlog, as we see it right now, EUR 1.6 billion will be more or less to 100% transferred into revenue.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time, and I hand back to Dr. Thomas Alamo for closing comments.

[Thomas Olemotz, executive]

So thanks a lot for your question and an interesting discussion. As always, I enjoyed discussing with you. I'm looking forward for -- I'm looking forward to your reports and to your results regarding your view at Bechtle and thank you. All the best for you for the future.

[Martin Link, executive]

Bye.

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]