Bechtle AG

XETRA:BC8

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q3

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome for joining the Bechtle AG conference call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Dr. Thomas Olemotz.

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen from Neckarsulm. Welcome to our analyst call on the results of Q3 and, thus, the first 9 months of the current financial year 2021 of Bechtle AG. I'm very pleased about your interest. As was the case last year, our call coincides with a traditional start of the Carnival season in the so-called Rhineland stronghold on November 11. And as was the case last year, our numbers reflect the same cheerful mood. Despite global supply bottlenecks, Bechtle is headed for yet another record year. We will highlight the details in the course of my presentation.As usual, this presentation will be divided into 4 major parts. The focus being on business development, of course, taking a look at the key financials of the third quarter, in particular, but that's also the first 9 months of the current financial year. We'll then take a look at the rather gratifying share price development over the past few weeks, followed by a few important strategic and qualitative nonfinancial results that are significant for the future development of Bechtle.And as usual, our last part will focus on the fundamentals and targets looking at the final quarter of 2021. But first of all, the development of our business. In our ad hoc announcement of October 25, we already communicated the fundamentals of the third quarter. So you already know that we continue to be very successful in Q3 2021. The demand is still high and our customers seek to invest in their IT systems, particularly in challenging times like these. The only thing clouding the picture are global supply shortages. We clearly see this looking at our order backlog. As of September 30, it amounted to EUR 1.5 billion, which equals an increase of 75% year-on-year. And here, we're talking about the volume of a full quarter that we are pushing ahead of us, so to speak.Having said that, we still managed to generate significant growth in sales revenues. The following chart exemplifies this trend, which shows the revenue trends this year. Q3 revenue growth amounted to a striking 9.1%, thus keeping up with the high level of the previous quarter. The organic growth rate is almost at 9%. Over the past 9 months, we thus achieved a 10% growth rate exactly, which is really something considering the aforementioned supply bottlenecks. When we're looking at the different quarters this year, what strikes me is the impressive level of Bechtle's consistency, a sign of the stability and resilience of our business model, particularly in difficult times. Our growth rate over the course of the year remains virtually unchanged.Let's take a look at the revenue development in the segments. As in Q2, the segment view is affected by prior year effect. In Q3 2020, the IT System House & Managed Services segment showed very good results. This is one of the reasons for the growth rate of 2.1% in the quarter under review. In addition, the current supply shortages have had a stronger effect here than in the sister segment. In the project business and in the case of framework agreements, we often find concrete and sometimes custom-configured products. And this is the area where delivery times are currently the longest. In Q3 2021 at 23.4%, the IT e-commerce segment, on the other hand, was able to grow significantly. Here, our customers find it easier to respond flexibly to supply constraints and switch over to alternative products, if necessary. May I also remind you that last year in Q3, this segment was still under pressure due to its international orientation. So the takeoff point clearly wasn't the same as for the IT System House & Managed Services segment. Let us now turn to the profit side and start with this year's -- or rather this quarter's EBIT trends. This year, Bechtle's profit situation really is extraordinary. We have shown high double-digit growth throughout the 3 quarters. But as gratifying as these growth figures may be, they are not sustainable from today's perspective, at least in terms of the magnitude. There are 2 factors that influence this picture. One, we see extraordinary effect in the quarter under review, especially caused by the deconsolidation of PSB IT-Service GmbH. And second, an additional effect is our high inventory levels in connection with the current price developments in the IT market. Rising or even constant prices are atypical for our market, but in combination with our stockpiling lead to higher profitability. So these are both effects that cannot be projected into the future as far as the order of magnitude is concerned. So let us take a look at the segment trends. In the IT System Health & Managed Services segment, EBIT grew by 23.3% in the period under review. The margin went up to 6.6% from 5.5%. This is where we see the effects of the 2 factors we just talked about. This is the only segment where the deconsolidation of PBS-IT service amounting to a net total of roughly EUR 3 million shows its effect. In addition, the higher profitability of the project business becomes noticeable here.In the IT e-commerce segment, EBIT grew by 14.6%. The margin declined slightly from 5.1% to 4.8%. The reason being the increased share of high-volume business, which usually tends to dilute margins. From a year-to-date perspective, profit trends for the 2 segments are much more similar. Growth in IT System House & Managed Services amounts to 27.4% and in IT e-commerce, 22.3%. We'll conclude the financials review by looking at operating cash flow, reflecting the current supply shortages in Q3.In the last 9 months, operating cash flow was at roughly EUR 26 million. This is where the high stock levels aiming to ensure delivery capacity show their effect. In addition, inventories include a large share of project-related products, which could not be delivered to the customer yet because other components of the same order are missing. It was a conscious choice of ours to increase inventories because in the current situation, customers value availability as the single most important criterion of differentiation. According to our current assessment, we believe that this effect will not be sustainable. But as long as supply bottlenecks persist, availability takes precedence over cash flow optimization, at least for those companies who can afford to do so.Now let us take a look at our headcount. At September 30, this year, 12,744 people worked for Bechtle, which equals a year-on-year increase of 5.7% or 689 heads. Thus, the increase in staff numbers is still moderate, but more marked than in the previous quarter. 689 people as an absolute number are quite something after all, 534 of them were new hires by the way. So as you can see, we still managed to fill open positions at short notice. This is the most important message behind these numbers. And now let us take a look at the performance of our share. Global Capital markets have experienced an upswing throughout the year despite COVID-19 and more importantly, despite the global shortage of many products and supply bottlenecks.In Q3, the fear of inflation resurfaced and the macroeconomic outlook became less optimistic in part. But so far, this has not affected the bullish sentiment and our Bechtle share too developed very well over the past few weeks. Since July, our shares have been on the rise, possibly also supported by the implementation of our forward stock split on 16th of August. In the middle of September, we hit an all-time high at EUR 67.16. After that, our share came under pressure, following poor results and even profit warnings from the tech sector in whose wake, we caught up -- we got caught up. However, the publication of our preliminary Q3 figures on the 25th of October initiated a stable upward trend and this stable upward trend then led to an all-time high of EUR 69.14. So let us now come to the highlights of Q3. Today, we're going to shed light on 3 areas that will keep us busy far beyond the third quarter, namely employees and training, mergers and acquisition and sustainability. Let us begin with a very positive bit of news from early September. The start of the 2021-'22 training year. As of September 1, 244 new trainees and students started their career at Bechtle. The number of new hires thus reaches a record level. Altogether, throughout the group, we are training 709 junior staff in 12 different technical and commercial trades. 634 out of the 220 trainees and students, that is the vast majority, are located at the German Bechtle sites. The current trading ratio in Germany amounts to 7%; by 2030, we want to see that figure rise to 10%.Let us move on to M&A. Bechtle IT System House Austria acquired IT service provider Open Networks GmbH located in Vienna. This further strengthens Bechtle's competitive standing as IT solution provider and service provider in the Austrian market. Open Networks is a specialist in the realization of IT infrastructure solutions and application services, data center security and network services, in particular. The company found in 2008 currently has 25 employees and expect for business year '21. Sales in the amount of roughly EUR 12.5 million. And the third and last highlight refers to the topic of sustainability, which is getting ever more important, both for our customers as well as for the capital market.In September, Bechtle AG published its Sustainability Strategy 2030. Bechtle began taking a systematic approach to sustainability as early as 2011, and has been publishing all the relevant activities in an annual sustainable report for 6 years now. The newly published Bechtle Sustainability Strategy 2030 builds on the organization's achievements while adding new and ambitious plans for the future. At its heart are 4 strategic areas of action: ethical business practices, people, the environment and the digital future, each with 3 focal points and strategic goals attached. For progress to be consistently tracked and measures to be adjusted as and when this becomes necessary, Bechtle has defined milestones and operative actions. The list of aspirations includes Bechtle's objective to become carbon neutral in areas it can influence by 2030.And to conclude the presentation, ladies and gentlemen, let us cast a glance to the remaining weeks of the year. So we start the outlook. The question of how successful Bechtle AG is going to close the current business year hinges almost exclusively on whether the continuing high demand for IT solutions can actually be met by us. So in a nutshell, you might say supply capacity is key. But to provide even a reasonably reliable assessment of this question has never been more difficult than today. The level of uncertainty remains thus very high for the remaining weeks of this business year.And in view of the initially mentioned high order backlog, we mustn't rest. But we have to use the remaining weeks of 2021 to turn as much of this order backlog into sales as possible. This holds particularly true in view of the fact that the fourth quarter traditionally shows very strong growth. Despite all that, however, our customers' willingness to invest remains unbroken. Therefore, we continue to be extremely optimistic in the mid and long term. We thus confirm once again our forecast for the year 2021 and confirm likewise, the mid- to long-term outlook for Bechtle AG. We continue to be confident and optimistic for the current business year and beyond. Thank you very much for your attention, and I'm looking forward to your questions now.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Knut Woller of Baader Bank comes first.

[Knut Woller, Analyst]

I have a few questions, in fact. The first question, Dr. Olemotz on the System House segment. I think it was the best margin you ever achieved in the segment. You have already mentioned a few of the effects that come into play. But is it possible that you also benefit from the fact that you can price certain services or put a price tag on certain services that you couldn't in the past, like in remote services, things that only came up during the pandemic? And if so, is that an effect that will persist? And the question on the cash flows. You mentioned the inventories, but trade receivables probably had a counter effect here, which might hint at a strong December business. If you take a look at the Q3 business that certainly is true. And then some crystal ball gazing, you probably can't tell us a lot about 2022. But the question that I am being asked of rather often is the following. For how long do you think the supply shortages are going to last? And is it fair to assume that if these bottlenecks persist in the first half of next year, you will be able to achieve further markups on inventories?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Thank you, Mr. Woller for the questions. Let me deal with them one by one. The first question related to the System House margin. We see 2 major effects here. One of which was mentioned by you, it is true. In the course of the pandemic and not just last quarter, but for a longer period of time, we've seen rather satisfying trend in the service business, and that also included the fact that the services, which were considered obligatory in the past can now -- well, we can now ask a price for them, and that includes remote services, as you mentioned correctly. And yes, this has a measurable effect on our margin. And the second effect is one that both segments can benefit from to different degrees, though. And that is stable, good pricing development and situation in the classic retail business. We currently see that the available -- the availability of products is the most important criterion for our customers to decide where to buy. And this criterion also means that how to put it? People are more ready to pay for these products, and they are more willing to accept that once a reseller is able to deliver certain price points are being accepted by the customers.So to put it in a nutshell, the good margin situation in the System House segment is due to 2 factors: one, the development in the services area. And secondly, the good front and back-end margin in the classic retail business. So as far as the trade receivables are concerned, you are right, of course, during the quarter, we saw that the month of September was going very strong, and we had a certain cutoff date effect for the relevant KPIs. And I would assume that we'll probably go back to the level in Q4, the level we used to have in recent quarters, rather stable situation.And the question that is probably the hardest to answer for all of us right now is when the supply bottlenecks in our industry are going to improve or maybe even dissolve. Well, currently -- well, and let me stress that we are rather optimistic here. We believe that this trend is going to be around for at least first 6 months of the next year, probably not as marked as we see these difficulties right now, but it's going to remain a major problem in our industry. There are even manufacturers who believe that the full financial year of 2022 is going to be impacted by the supply shortages.Now this trend is probably going to improve successively over time, continuously as it also built up over time, EUR 1.5 billion that I mentioned is approximately the volume of a quarter for us. So if the availability of products were much better, the question is how long would it take us to work on this backlog. I think that once the supply situation improves, this order backlog can probably develop its own dynamics going hand-in-hand with the growth we hope to see then. And on the other hand, we need to acknowledge the fact that we'll have to live with the situation for various quarters now. So thank you very much.

[Knut Woller, Analyst]

One follow-up. Is it fair to assume that if the supply bottlenecks are going to be here in Q1, this will probably also have an impact on your inventory levels?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Well, I think that we'll be able to benefit from the situation in the next year as well. We have the usual, the most common product on stock right now. You may ask the question, why don't you sell these products when they're so common -- commonly asked for? Well, this is because an order usually is made up of various components, and it's no good if just one component is available, if the other components are not, and if we can't invoice those. So this is probably the explanation for the strange duration that we're faced with. I'm a bit worried about -- rather, I'm not worried about us not being able to benefit from these high inventory levels. Once the supply bottlenecks are being reduced over time, I don't think we'll be back at a point where the front and back-end end margin in the classic retail segment come under pressure immediately. We'll see this effect trailing on for some time. And this would give us this positive effect that you just explained from us selling off our inventories.

[Operator]

Next question, Florian Treisch, ODDO BHF.

[Florian Treisch, Analyst]

Hello, Dr. Olemotz. Thank you for answering my questions. I have some of them. The first relates to the one we've just heard. You said a very strong September. We might reduce that Q4 until today. So October is continuing to show a strong performance around 10%. So the question now is, will you make sales in Q4 or in the next Q1. And then you also discussed the margin in the system house business. You talked about positive price effects. But with the reverse documentation at the beginning of the year, you built up reserves at the beginning of the year arguing that if you have agreed supply volumes and you keep the prices that you expect a margin squeeze, that doesn't seem to have happened. So will we see significant resolution of these reserves in Q4 and a bit of crystal gazing for 2022?As far as the market leaders, you get more volumes than the many small players in the market. Do you think that this will continue to be like that in 2022? So the big OEMs will be nicer to the smaller players? Or do you think that the big players will continue to expect and force the consolidation?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Let me start with the last question. Well, I think, as long as the supply constraints remain, the big players, the other competitors amongst us, will benefit from this out of proportion. So in other words, if the supply bottleneck constraints resolve, the physical distribution will be more widely spread. That at least is what I expect. And by the way, this is not primarily linked to the sheer size of Bechtle's, also linked to the size of the projects that we service at the manufacturers. And as a big market player, you have framework contracts in the public sector and in the industry. And you just have big volumes allocated to certain contracts. And if a manufacturer wants to comply with these contracts, they have to deal with the big players in the sector. That is the logic behind it. And it also explains the fact that once availability increases or improves, this uneven distribution will be more balanced in the future. And the second question address the reserve for risks. Well, 2 comments on that. There are 2 major risk areas for which we've made these provisions: one, possible defaults due to deterioration in customers' capacity to pay. And we've built these provisions in 2020, not this business year, but last business year in the fourth quarter of 2020, essentially. And the second aspect, risks that might encourage you to ability not to -- disability to supply in framework context where a certain service level has been agreed. These are the 2 major risks fields. And we have appropriate reserves here. And throughout the year, at the quarterly cutoff date, we've seen changes here. In particular, as regards the payment default due to a deterioration -- theoretical deterioration of the payment capacities of customers, so across the year, this reserve has been reduced. As far as I remember, we've done so in the second quarter of 2021, and we are adjusting it. Why have we reduced it? Well, so far, we haven't had any material risks that occurred, the provisions for penalties or penal payments is something we're going to look at towards the end of the year. So this really hinges on the risk assessment at the end of the year, whether these 2 big areas need to be changed, yes or no. Right now, we can't decide yet. But once again, as managers, we're always required to do a risk assessment on a quarterly basis. And based on that, we decide on the provisions. And again, in the second quarter, I think we've decreased it by EUR 3 million, this one risk area, for payment defaults. And once again, to remind you of another aspect. The reason why we've done this -- prepared this provision, this was the impending insolvency wave, so to speak. You might remember what was discussed at the beginning of the pandemic. But according to the current assessment, there is such risk still around. I've just read it the other day. I think in the report of the federal bank. But it is assumed that this will materialize later than expected. So not in 2021, but maybe in the second half of 2022 because the state support measures for these companies have been extended, and that has changed competitive situation at the beginning of the pandemic. And that is why, once again, at a quarterly basis, we have adjusted our assessment, and we are looking at this on a quarterly basis and take actions. Now with the first question, what about the fourth quarter? Well, I'm very grateful for this question, quite honestly. Because in the fourth quarter, especially -- well, how can I put it? We are running against 2 trends, which at good times provide the dynamic which we've always seen in the past. On the one hand, we are very strong and successful in the public sector business. The public sector traditionally is the customer group that invests traditionally in the fourth quarter. And they contributed greatly to the seasonality we've seen in the past years. The fourth quarter was always the strongest quarter within the year. When we published the second quarter figures, I've already pointed out that for this year, I don't assume that we'll see this strong seasonality this year that we have a more moderate development and the current development underpins this if you look at the quarters. I've just underlined this in my presentation. We have a stable development plus/minus 10% in the top line and no outliers here. And that, of course, catches up with us now, so to speak. And here the bottlenecks of the manufacture really hit us massively in the fourth quarter. That is why I assume that the dynamism we've seen in terms of revenue growth will not come to play this year. And the value plus 10% you've mentioned the growth year-to-date. If you look at the current development, I don't assume that we can show this top line. As regards to bottom line, well, I am slightly more relaxed to put it like that.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We'll just wait for a moment. The next question is by Florian Treisch, ODDO.

[Florian Treisch, Analyst]

Right. So if I am able to ask another question, I surely will. Thank you very much. You just mentioned that M&A has become more important again. Now the Austrian situation is a rather small one by Bechtle's standards. And at the last call -- during the last call, you said you finished your screening after having promoted it and we'll be looking at that in 2022. Can you give us some insight on where you stand right now? What your thoughts are on this?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Yes, I'd be happy to. As you said, the analysis phase is over, and we're focused on the following markets, mostly France, Benelux, especially the Netherlands. We're also looking at Spain and the U.K., to a lesser degree. So these are the markets that we are focused on. And in all of these markets, we've also already looked at the first targets, target companies, and we decided that we're going to take a structured approach, which we've already initiated, looking at the French market, first, also with external support. That is something that's very important in France. We're working together with an institute there that is located in France. So [ surprise, ] certainly, this is not going to happen this year. You all know the kind of run-up times this takes 6 months plus, rather more these days. So I don't believe that we're going to see another transaction this year still. So definitely, it's a topic for the coming year 2022.

[Operator]

We'll then switch over to the English room. Just bear with us, please, an English question waiting. So the next question is from the line of Jad Younes with UBS.

[Jad J. Younes, Research Analyst]

Dr. Olemotz, regarding the number of new employees that you've hired during this quarter, I see quite a bit of them are in the System House division. Given the supply change shortages, I mean, are you expecting sort of a bounce back in the System House division in Q1 and Q2 of next year? And also, are you seeing sort of higher wage inflation while hiring these people?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Thanks for your question. To your first question, no, I don't expect any bounce back in the first quarter regarding the employee development, especially in our System House segment. I even expect an increase in employees in the 2020. So regarding the figures, to be precise, no. Probably no bounce back in the first quarter. Regarding the level of wages, what we see over the -- what we saw over the last years, I have to say, is that wage is already increased significantly. But I don't expect a larger development on that. Looking at the cost of personnel, we grew even a disproportional in the first 3 quarters of the year '21, and that fits exactly to what I said before.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no questions in the English room, one second, and we move back to the German room.The next question in the German room is by Knut Woller of Baader Bank.

[Knut Woller, Analyst]

Yes, question coming from me again. So a question on the Cloud segment, Dr. Olemotz. Can you give us an update here on what's happening? We've been reading a lot about reseller service showing us that the conversion of cloud opportunities is a major theme offering growth opportunities in the future. So can you give us an update on Bechtle Cloud and how you manage this conversion? And what you think about this kind of momentum?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Yes, I'd be happy to tell you about that. Let me give you some concrete figures. As you know, Mr. Woller, in the past, I wasn't able to give you concrete numbers. The reason not being that I didn't want to tell them, but rather that we didn't have any valid reference values. But meanwhile, we have a dashboard that I can refer to. So I'd be happy to give you some concrete numbers. We're talking about year-to-date, the first 3 quarters of 2021, so not just Q3 and compared to the same period last year, the first 3 quarters of 2020. The number of customers has risen by 40% roughly, number of seats was almost doubled during that time, a growth of 106%. Contracts growth, 60% almost, 57.7% to be precise. And revenue growth of 73% in the 3 quarters of the current year related to -- on a year to -- on a year-on-year basis. So we believe that we'll see top line growth for the full financial year amounting to a total of over 150%, clearly above 150%. And that's an excellent performance, of course.

[Knut Woller, Analyst]

And can you tell us something about the breakeven point? When are you going to reach it? And when will this business have a positive impact on your bottom line. Though I think it was a 3-digit number we're talking about, is that correct?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Well, end-to-end, we're already at this breakeven point. Why I'm saying end-to-end? Well, because major parts of the contribution margin and our structure are not in the cloud unit, but in the decentralized sales unit. So the cloud business will make a positive impact on our bottom line as a group this year already. And here, we're talking about sales volume of roughly EUR 120 million for the full year.

[Operator]

Next question, Andreas Wolf, Warburg Research.

[Andreas Wolf, Research Analyst]

One question, Dr. Olemotz. I would like to know if the customers know that they have to order early on because there's a delivery delay due to the bottleneck situation. Do you have this in the books? And could you also comment on how the different investment programs that focus on schools, for instance, in the public sector, how that impacts you because as a rule, the service was one of the reasons why the funds weren't used because the services were not funded by the government.

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Thank you for this question. Yes, the customers are aware of that by now, I'd like to add. Though there are still customers who in the first months of the pandemic, when it was still unclear when the macroeconomic situation is going to change. So the customers were rather hesitant as regards to IT budget, which I can understand from a entrepreneurial point of view. But now the economic pessimism, so to speak, has gone and the customers, and you can see this from the growth rates for this and next year, if you look at the economic cycle, there is more optimism here. The problems now are the delivery times indeed. So many of the customers have this insight too late, so to speak. There are some customers who obviously have detected the tricky situations in the supply chain early on, and these are the customers who benefit from our delivery capacities. But some customers sort of failed to notice this situation.[Technical Difficulty]

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, please -- apologize for this interruption, we'll reconnect the speaker. Just a second.

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

So we are back online. Okay. I don't know as of when you couldn't hear me. I'm going to repeat what I've said, on the question of early orders of the customers. Well, some customers were able to foresee the situations, others didn't. So ordered early on, others are running after procurement problem, so to speak. So there is no overall statement that fits the situation. As regards to the investment programs, above all those of the public sector in the education sector. Well, the situation -- it's rather tricky. We don't see that after the public discussions that there are fundamental changes in terms of the difficult approval situation, unfortunately, I'd like to add. [indiscernible] when it comes to the educational pact.

[Andreas Wolf, Research Analyst]

And another question, if I may. Trick is in some areas. Does that mean that service business can't be provided by you? So that would result in underutilization of the System House business?

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

No, no, quite the opposite. Quite the opposite. That's what Mr. Woller has addressed. We have a good utilization in the service field because services which, in the past, were expected by the customers without us being billing, that were not billable. That has changed, that affects the remote services. So the customers are now willing here. We -- in the past, we had difficulties to provide our services on-premises at the customers. So in my opinion, there is a major change to be observed. So the situation in the service field is quite positive, part of the reason for the strong margin, the system has business.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions, and I hand back to Dr. Thomas Olemotz.

[Thomas Olemotz, CEO & Chairman of The Executive Board]

Yes. Thank you. Well, lively discussion. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm grateful for your questions. I think we have covered all essential aspects throughout our discussions. It will be a thrilling fourth quarter to summarize it like that. And I think we've been able to indicate where the challenges will be in the fourth quarter. So in your comments, you will thus not be lost -- and forgive I'm looking out of the window, that comes to mind as regards to future expectations. So once again, thank you very much, and I wish you a successful remaining week and stay healthy.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now concluded. Thank you for joining, and have a pleasant day. Goodbye.