Basf Se

XETRA:BAS

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to BASF's conference call on the third quarter 2024 results. Today's presentation is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current estimates and projections of the Board of Executive Directors and currently available information. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the future developments and results outlined therein. These are dependent on a number of factors.

They involve various risks and uncertainties, and they are based on assumptions that may not prove to be accurate. Such risk factors include those discussed in opportunities and risks of the BASF report 2023. BASF does not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation above and beyond the legal requirements.

With me on the call today are CEO, Markus Kamieth and CFO, Dirk Elvermann. Please be aware that we have already posted the speech on our website at basf.com/q32024. Now I would like to hand over to Markus.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to our analyst conference call today. Dirk and I will provide you with details on our business development in the third quarter. It's roughly 1 month since we presented BASF's new strategy at our Capital Markets Day. Thanks again to those of you who are able to attend either in person or virtually. And overall, we all have the impression that our key messages were understood and also, in general, well received.

Let's now start with an overview of BASF's performance in Q3. With EUR 15.7 billion, sales matched the level of prior year quarter. Volumes of BASF Group, excluding pressures and base metals increased by 7%. All segments achieved volume growth with the exception of Surface Technologies. Here, the volume in the Catalysts division declined while the Coatings division recorded higher volumes.

Prices were slightly positive, excluding precious and base metals. The pressure on sales prices thus continued to ease. Currency headwinds dampened sales growth by 3%. Negative currency effects were mainly related to the Argentinian peso and the Brazilian eye. EBITDA before special items improved by 5% and came in at EUR 1.6 billion. the positive earnings momentum in our core businesses, which was already visible in the first half of 2024, continued in the third quarter, driven by higher volumes and higher margins considerably higher earnings in BASF's core businesses more than offset lower contributions from the stand-alone businesses in Q3.

Here, you can see a snapshot of how the markets and our segments volumes and specific margins developed in the third quarter. In a slightly improving market environment for base chemicals, we achieved strong volume growth in the Chemicals segment. The Petrochemicals division increased specific margins, while margins in the Intermediates division remained stable.

EBITDA before special items in the Chemicals segment increased considerably compared with the prior year quarter. In an overall stable market environment, the Materials segment benefited from slightly higher volumes, particularly in the MDI propylene oxide and ammonia value chains. The considerable increase in specific margins was largely driven by a few product lines in the Monomers division and led to a significant increase in the segment's EBITDA before special items.

Industrial Solutions operated in an overall stable market environment. Both divisions achieved significant volume growth and improved specific margins slightly. In particular, this was driven by our businesses with the fuel in lubricants, coatings and semiconductor industries. EBITDA before special items rose considerably. The market environment for Nutrition & Care remained favorable.

The segment increased volumes, thanks to the Care Chemicals division, which recorded higher sales to both the home and personal care markets. Specific margins improved strongly in both divisions and EBITDA before special items of the segment increased considerably compared with the prior year quarter.

Global automotive production declined by more than 5% in Q3. And compared with the prior year quarter. In this environment, volumes in the Surface Technologies segment declined due to lower volumes in the Catalysts division, while coatings still recorded volume growth. The overall lower volumes could not be offset by higher specific margins in both divisions.

Therefore, EBITDA before special items declined in the Surface Technologies segment. The market for Agricultural Solutions showed a heterogeneous picture in Q3. On the 1 hand, low crop commodity prices and elevated financing costs impacted farmers' income and also buying behavior. On the other hand, lower channel inventories in Europe and North America were supportive. In this environment, the Agricultural Solutions segment achieved strong volume growth, particularly in fungicides, seeds and trades as well as in insecticides.

However, considerably lower specific margins, partially due to lower prices, especially in South America, and a positive onetime effect in the prior year quarter from an insurance payment led to a decline in EBITDA before special items. In view of the earnings decline in BASF Surface Technologies segment, let me provide you with some additional color on the current challenges that the automotive industry is facing. At the beginning of the year, we had assumed that global light vehicle production would be stable or slightly declining.

After a weaker-than-expected third quarter for global light vehicle production, we have revised our assumptions for 2024 and now anticipate a global decline of up to 2.5% on account of lower production in Western Europe and in North America. Production figures for heavy-duty vehicles in 2024 will likely recede by around 2%. Light vehicle production in Western Europe benefited from pent-up demand in 2023, which was supported by the backlog in orders and the replenishment of inventories.

These one-off effects have now faded. In North America, the automotive industry is burdened by a lack of demand and rising inventories. The industry is postponing and canceling new models. Despite trade and subsidies, domestic demand in China is weak and the market for combustion engines is even declining. However, Chinese exports continue to increase, and China is, therefore, likely to see a slight growth in the automotive production in 2024.

Overall, the current momentum points towards a more challenging outlook for automotive production in Q4. The factors I have described led to the following developments in EBITDA before special items compared with the prior year quarter. Earnings in the core businesses, that means Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions and Nutrition & Care increased strongly and more than offset considerably lower contributions from the stand-alone businesses in the Surface Technologies and Agricultural Solutions segments. Others also recorded lower earnings.

Overall EBITDA before special items increased by EUR 77 million. I would now like to highlight the structural measures in materials that contributed to the growth in EBITDA before special items in the segment. Already in February 2023, we announced several measures to adjust the production structures at the Ludwigshafen site to improve competitiveness and restore profitability. These measures were primarily related to the Monomers division and contribute to our cost savings programs for BASF Group.

As shown on the slide, the structural adjustments are related to the polyamide and ammonia value chains as well as TDI. Thanks to the decisive measures, we are already at a run rate of around EUR 150 million for fixed cost savings in the Monomers division, related onetime costs since the start of implementation amount to around EUR 160 million as of September 30.

We will continue to swiftly implement the outstanding measures, which include the full closure of the adipic acid plant and the shutdown of the production plant for [indiscernible] that announced already in August. This letter plant is part of the Intermediates division. In all our divisions, reviewing the competitiveness of our production assets is a continuous process and not a onetime activity.

This is the basis for implementing measures to improve competitiveness or in certain cases, also deciding to shut down plants. And with that, I hand over to Dirk.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Thank you, Markus, and good morning, everyone. Let's now have a look at further financial details of the group for the third quarter of 2024. EBITDA before special items increased by 5%, thanks to the considerably improved earnings of our core businesses. Overall, the EBITDA margin before special items increased from 9.8% to 10.3%. The EBITDA margin before special items in our businesses improved by 3.6 percentage points compared with the prior year quarter.

EBIT before special items amounted to EUR 635 million, an increase of EUR 59 million or 10% compared with the prior year quarter. Special items amounted to minus EUR 385 million, more than half of which was related to the Agricultural Solutions segment. This is primarily due to the planned closure of the glufosinate ammonium production and formulation facilities in Knapsack in Frankfurt, which we announced already in July 2024.

The remaining special charges were mainly related to group-wide restructuring measures particularly in connection with the ongoing cost-saving programs. Net income came in at EUR 287 million compared with minus EUR 249 million in Q3 2023. In the prior year quarter, a lower earnings contribution from nonintegral companies accounted for using the equity method had negatively impacted net income.

This contribution included special charges for impairments and restructuring measures at [indiscernible] In Q3 2024, earnings were supported by the disposal gain of EUR 389 million, resulting from the transfer of indeed assets to Harbour Energy.

In Q3 2024, cash flows from operating activities decreased by EUR 633 million to EUR 2.1 billion mainly due to lower cash inflows from changes in net working capital. During this quarter, changes in net working capital led to a cash inflow of EUR 487 million a decrease from the strong cash flow inflow of EUR 1.4 billion in Q3 2023. Payments made for property, plant and equipment and intangible assets rose by EUR 262 million to EUR 1.5 billion, particularly on account of the construction of the [ Verbund ] site in South China, which is progressing on time and in budget.

Free cash flow amounted to EUR 569 million compared with EUR 1.5 billion in Q3 2023. Let's now turn to our balance sheet at the end of September 2024 compared with the end of September 2023. Total assets decreased by EUR 3.2 billion and amounted to EUR 79.4 billion. Noncurrent assets decreased slightly by EUR 0.5 billion, there were additions to property, plant and equipment, due largely to our investment in the [ Fabunsite ] in South China.

Furthermore, financial assets increased due to our investments in the wind park projects Northline. These developments were more than offset, among other things, by lower intangible assets and lower nonintegral investments accounted for using the equity method due to the transfer of [indiscernible] idea assets to Harbour Energy at the beginning of September 2024.

Current assets declined by EUR 2.7 billion to EUR 31.7 billion, mainly due to the strong reduction in working capital. Net debt increased slightly to EUR 19.7 billion at the end of September 2024 compared with EUR 18.9 billion at the end of September 2023. With 45.4%, our equity ratio at the end of September 2024 remained solid.

BASF's good credit ratings reflect our strong balance sheet and prudent financial policy. Moving on to a short update of the implementation of BASF cost-saving programs. We are on track to achieve the targeted EUR 2.1 billion annual cost savings by the end of 2026. The implementation of the cost saving programs announced in February 2023 is in full swing.

As of the end of September 2024, we already achieved a cost reduction run rate of around EUR 800 million which is associated with onetime cost of around EUR 500 million. By the end of this year, we now expect a cost reduction run rate of more than EUR 800 million. The associated onetime costs are expected to amount to around EUR 550 million.

We are also moving forward as planned with the additional cost savings program focused on improving our competitiveness in Ludwigshafen. In October, the units at the site were informed about the contributions they are expected to deliver by the end of 2026.

Before I hand back to Markus, I would like to briefly outline changes regarding the publication of BASF's annual report. Due to the extended sustainability reporting requirements resulting from the Corporate Sustainability Reporting directive and the European Sustainability Reporting Standards, we will have 2 publication dates in the future. On February 28, 2025, BASF will publish its unaudited full year results for the business year 2024 via an online report in combination with an investor and news release.

These documents will contain all important financial and nonfinancial figures for 2024 as well as the outlook for 2025, and they will form the basis for our analysts and press conferences on that day. The audited BASF report 2024 will be published on March 21, 2025. The integrated report will contain all legally required financial and ESG information.

The report will be provided in the form of an online report and as a clickable PDF print version will no longer be produced. And with that, back to you, Markus.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Dirk. In addition to the changes in our reporting that Dirk just outlined, I would like to provide you with some information on BASF's Annual Shareholders' Meeting. Next year's Annual Shareholders' Meeting is scheduled for May 2, 2025, and will be held as a virtual meeting. We held 2 in-person annual shareholders meetings at the Congress Center in Manheim since the end of the pandemic. And now for the first time, we would like to hold an entirely virtual Annual Shareholders' Meeting in accordance with the legal requirements that have been in force in Germany since July 2022.

This has been decided by the Board of Executive Directors in alignment with the Supervisory Board. Other DUCs companies have had good experiences with this format, and we would like to try out what works best for us. Let's now turn to the outlook. We are maintaining the outlook for 2024 as published in the BASF Report 2023 at the end of February.

Based on current information, we expect to reach the low end of the EBITDA before special items forecast range for the full year 2024. Generally, the fourth quarter is more difficult to predict. However, due to the positive momentum in our core businesses in Q3, we remain confident despite the continued challenging economic environment and the more tactical buying behavior of customers towards year-end.

Compared to our expectations at the beginning of the year, the business development in the automotive industry and the agricultural sector is weaker. This will continue to negatively impact our earnings development in the Surface Technologies and the Agricultural Solutions segment in the coming months. In Ag, we have also been facing significant FX headwinds which will impact Q4 as well particularly burdening our margins in Brazil and Argentina.

Furthermore, as mentioned during the Capital Markets Day, we expect the force majeure in our Nutrition & Health division to impact EBITDA before special items by a low triple-digit million euro amount in the second half of 2024. This impact in Q3 has not yet been pronounced. So we expect a bigger impact in Q4 that will likely sum up to the indicated order of magnitude. And as always, we will provide our outlook for 2025 at the end of February.

This will also, for sure, not be an easy year to predict but by then at least the U.S. elections will be behind us. What is certain is that we at BASF will execute our winning waste strategy with a clear focus on value creation and by taking a new direction on portfolio steering, capital allocation and performance culture. And now Dirk and I are glad to take your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will now begin with a question from Tom Wrigglesworth, Morgan Stanley, after him we will have Christian Faitz and then Matthew Yates. But now Tom Wigglesworth, please.

[Thomas Wrigglesworth, analyst]

Two questions, if I may. The first one on the guidance. Obviously, normal seasonality is that the fourth quarter would be down somewhere by 20% to 25%. And if we add back the outage impact in nutrition it looks like you're indicating that quarter-on-quarter, things will be up more than 10%.

So I'm keen, is that backed by your view on volumes? Or is that backed by are we seeing better fixed cost absorption? Can you help us understand better the counter seasonal performance that you're indicating for the fourth quarter? The second question is just on this automotive shift that you indicate from U.S., Europe to Chinese exports.

Can you talk about how that impacts your coatings business and how that impacts in terms of the value split between the regions and also how it impacts your polyamide 6 and 6 businesses and how you're thinking about adjusting those accordingly.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Yes, this is Dirk speaking. I maybe take the first question on the guidance. As we said, we expect to reach the low end of the range. What we have seen in this year is quite an extreme volatility. If you think about -- we started strongly in July, had a week, really weak August and then came back strongly in September. And for the last quarter, which is anyway quite a volatile quarter.

There are quite a couple of effects that lead to some uncertainty here. Let me stress that on average for the last year, we reached EUR 1.7 billion of EBITDA before special items in that fourth quarter back to 2015. But what are the uncertainties that we have?

First, you said rightly, we made progress with our cost improvement programs that is clearly so also volume-wise, talking to all our business heads, the volumes are not falling off the cliff clearly, but maintaining and partly even maintaining strongly. With regard to the buyer behavior, there's a couple of question marks.

We see partly this typical inventory management behavior at customers, but also not consistently, there's still the question how much of presales the ag business will generate, which also had quite some volume success, at least also during the third quarter and is working on that and then also the impact that we will see in nutrition from the [ isofisol ] has been not so pronounced in the third quarter. We still have also here products to be sold in the fourth quarter at quite good prices, I'd say.

So just to give you a couple of effects here, which make it hard to lend at a certain number. But all in all, I would say, expecting low end of the guidance is a reasonable stance here.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

Tom, just Markus here. A couple of comments on auto. I mean it is certainly shaping up to become a more challenging year than what we have initially thought. If you look at overall year-to-date, as I said, minus 2% roughly production figures, light-duty vehicles. In Q3, it was minus 5%, particularly pronounced in Europe and certainly the momentum in Europe is challenging. However, coming to your question also how this affects our business.

As we have also said in the past, for us, regional shifts between automotive production are not such a big deal because we have assets for all our automotive-related businesses. all major production areas. And we are also present with all significant OEMs also in China. So market share shifts between regions and also between OEMs, in general, I would say, are not such a big influencing factor for BASF.

So it's more the overall production volume trajectory that is worrying us right now because Q3 momentum has not been good. And with what's to be expected in Q4, that's certainly a headwind that we have to face.

[Operator]

We now have Christian Faitz, Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Christian Faitz, analyst]

Yes. Markus, Dirk, Stephanie and team. Markus, I hope you trip to Berlin yesterday wasn't too boring. Some of your peers are talking about a continued drag in automotive demand into 2025. Would you subscribe to this view? And then the second question is what is your best guess of FX and trading conditions for your Agricultural Solutions in Q4.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

I'll take the first question, Christian. Trip was not boring. It's always a pleasure to go to Berlin. Second question on spillover automotive into 2025. I would say hard to say right now. If you would ask anybody what is the outlook for 2025 automotive, everybody would be fishing a bit in the dark as usual. I would say all the industry, let's say, experts and consultants are projecting slight growth next year. But I have to say, as always, we have to see how the year really starts.

And for me, what always is a big indicator is how China will behave before Chinese New Year and then also what will happen after this. And once that is clear, we have a clear outlook on overall production figures and sales figures, in particular for the automotive industry. China is so big that this really matters. And that's why I would say right now, I would not put a lot of money on speculations on 2025.

But for sure, we are not going to see a big rebound or big growth year but I expect again some positive trends also again to emerge in automotive next year as well.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Yes, Christian, on the FX effect for Agricultural Solutions, this was burdening the business already throughout the year. And as we are now in the midst of the South American season and with the presales also for the Northern Hemisphere, this is going to continue. So we are not expecting any tailwind from FX for the rest of the year, gives also a bit of a positive view on the agricultural business, I think altogether with strong volumes still relatively weak prices, as we said, but the FX effect certainly has to be taken into consideration and 1 point will change, but not in 2024.

[Operator]

So we move on to Matthew Yates, Bank of America. In the following, we will have Chetan Udeshi, then Jaideep Pandya; and then Alex Stewart. But now Matthew Yates, Bank of America.

[Matthew Yates, analyst]

Just one question, and maybe it's for Dirk. It looks like the Chemicals division got weighed down a little bit with an increase in fixed costs related to the new site in China. Is it possible to quantify the impact of that additional fixed cost? And perhaps more importantly, talk a little bit more about the magnitude of those cost increases as you go into 2025 with the site starting to come online and more people, et cetera, that we should start thinking about in terms of the impact on chemical profitability next year?

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Matthew, well spotted already 2024, we are now faced with the first cash fixed cost burden for Sanjiang. Think about it for the entire year 2024 is a low triple-digit number. And then also for going forward for 2025, it will be, I think, around about EUR 100 million per quarter that we have to bear next year before then as of the end of the year, beginning of 2026, we can start operations.

[Matthew Yates, analyst]

And maybe just as a follow-up. I know it's noncash, but what does the depreciation phasing look like in terms of above or below that, sorry, the depreciation incrementally next year?

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Yes. So depreciation is obviously going to start. I don't have the number handy for you, Matthew, now. But think about the Shenzhen [ Fabunsite ] as a normal to extended depreciation period.

[Operator]

Okay. Now Chetan Udeshi, JPMorgan

[Chetan Udeshi, analyst]

I just wanted to follow up on the question on Q4 guidance because I'm sorry, but I really don't understand why you expect Q4 to be better than Q3. So let's try other way around. Can you maybe give us a bit more color by segments where you actually think Q3 will be better than -- sorry, Q4 will be better than Q3 in terms of EBITDA as you seem to suggest in your group guidance? And the second question I had was on Ag division.

Clearly, the volumes are coming back very, very strongly. But I go back to the question I had asked on CMD as well. I'm just surprised that there is Typically, what we see with companies or specialty chemical companies where R&D spending is high, you usually have euro-based pricing. So when FX moves a lot against you sort of try to pass it on to your customers because you've got that differentiated products.

But here in ag chemicals business, what we see is the FX impact is very, very big. And on top, the prices are also down. I mean, that just seems very unlike a specialty business. So just any thoughts around that.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

Yes. Chetan good question. I mean I will not go now into individual segment guidance on Q4. In general, let me give you maybe some thoughts on this. I mean, what we see -- and you have seen this now throughout Q2, Q3 the overall earnings momentum in our chemicals businesses. So what we now call core businesses is actually quite favorable compared to last year. And we are seeing both volume growth in almost all divisions and margin expansion. The trend that certainly in Q4 will be more challenging is the volume picture in this area, the margin is actually holding up quite well because when you look at raw material markets, most of them are actually walking sideways or actually receding.

So the margin picture is actually quite positive, and we are expecting also this momentum most divisions to carry forward. So we're quite optimistic that despite, of course, always year-end challenges in buying behavior of customers, we can see a continued good momentum, especially margin-wise in the chemicals businesses.

And then Dirk has already alluded to some of the effects that we will also see in our P&L coming in the fourth quarter. And so in our books, the EUR 8 billion lower end of the guidance is achievable, and we're confident that we will be there at the end of the year.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Yes, Chetan, I think on the Ag business, I already commented on the FX. You saw strong volume in Q3, but very weak prices and the division is working on a certainly stronger Q4 than Q3. And this is opening also then the new season. So we are very confident that the fourth quarter for Ag will be stronger than compared to I think this is what we can say at this point in time.

[Operator]

Now we have Jaideep Pandya, on Field Research.

[Jaideep Pandya, analyst]

First question I want to ask is really around the citral complex that you have. I think you've increased capacity in Malaysia and also in the plan for China that are supposed to be see trial coming, I think, in due course. Now one of your big Chinese competitors on who are going to enter the market, I think, pretty soon in [indiscernible] looks like citral will go along. So can we go away from the fire a little bit and understand what is your citral strategy? And will you reduce utilization or capacity in Germany to balance this market.

And the second question, I apologize for asking this, but when we look at the moving parts for ag next year, especially in Q1, which is your big quarter, I mean, what other risks do you have? Is it very heavily focused on seed and [indiscernible] or you have enough arrows in your city to sort of offset some of the weaknesses because, I guess, a lot of the 2025 outlook hinges on how good ag is in Q1 next year.

[Marc Ehrhardt, executive]

Yes, Jaideep, I'll take the -- Markus here. I'll take the first question on sea trial and then maybe Dirk can comment on ag. You're right. I mean we have quite a while back, actually invested into a new [indiscernible] plant in Malaysia, also making menthol there out of citral trial, and we will start up a new citral plant in [indiscernible] next year and then use the citral also largely internally to make various different derivatives from it. So most of the sea trial will be used externally to use to make higher value aroma ingredients. Overall, our strategy is to build capacities based on a very strong cost position and a good technology in line with the market expectations and in particular, with close alignment with our large global key accounts.

And you can be assured that also the investment in China is largely say, contracted also with the strongly growing demand of our large customers in this segment. And so overall, yes, there are new competitors entering the field. But with our 3 manufacturing sites in Malaysia, China and in Germany along with the good integration with downstream Aroma derivatives. We feel very good about our setup.

We feel good about our customer relationships and we believe that the growth that we have seen in Aroma over the last years, which is 1 of our strongest growing businesses will be strongly supported also by our strong position in citral. We're not blind towards competitors that are entering the market. But in that particular technology, we feel good with our cost position in our setup.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Yes, this is Dirk. On ag, we likewise feel good the starting of the new season for Ag. We have now observed as less inventories in the channels, both in North America and Europe. So we are waiting and expecting a normal buying behavior throughout our portfolio of ag products. On top of that, we have good news also for our glufosinate ammonium, as you know, we have applied here for the approval for the LGA, which is then to substitute the U.S. part of our [ glufosinate ] ammonium that was now restructured.

And here, we have in the last couple of days, obtained the federal approval from EPA in North America. So I think staying in your picture, we have all the arrows for 2025 to cut and to match and surpass the strong results still in the first half of the year. So I expect first half 2025 for Ag stronger than the first half of 2024.

[Jaideep Pandya, analyst]

Well done on your volume growth.

[Operator]

We will move on now to Alex Stewart, Barclays. We will then have Peter Clark and then Andreas Heine, but now Alex Stewart, Barclays, please.

[Unknown Analyst]

Very simple question, I hope. You called out strong unit margins in the Monomers segment within Materials. Could you perhaps tell us which products are responsible for that and whether that is a sustainable or a temporary benefit? And then just a point of clarification on the [indiscernible] fixed costs. Was I right in hearing that this year was about EUR 100 million headwind and then next year will be about a EUR 400 million headwind in other words, EUR 300 million year-on-year. And would you mind just confirming whether that's across chemicals and materials.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

Markus here, margins on materials, in particular, you asked an interesting -- you have an interesting take on are these margins sustainable or not. It's always difficult to say in a cyclical rather commoditized business, but I will refrain from this. But in general, where we have seen margin -- good margin expansion also in the third quarter, in particular, the ammonia value chain in our Monomers division also had good margin recovery in our PA 66 and PA value chains.

So these are the areas where margin expansion in Q3 has been seen versus prior year. Overall, in the Performance Materials unit, I would say, the margin picture was more stable. We had some margin expansions in individual product lines, but nothing so pronounced. So I would say, overall, if I look at the numbers, the predominant margin expansion comes from the -- the areas that I just mentioned, so ammonia and PA66 and PA6 precursors.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

To the clarification question on the [indiscernible] project in China, low triple-digit extra cost in 2024 full year. and roughly EUR 100 million of extra cost per quarter next year, mainly attributable to the Chemicals division.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

And I just wanted to make this very clear, Alex, in the [indiscernible] startup cost that we are talking about here, materials is not affected. So the material segment, neither the monomers nor the Performance Materials division is affected by this. So this is attributable to a large -- to the, by far, largest extent to the Chemicals segment and to also, to a minor extent to the Nutrition & Care segment because we have both non-ionic effect and complex as well as the sea trial plant in [indiscernible] as well.

[Operator]

Now Peter Clark, Bernstein, please.

[Peter Anthony Clark, analyst]

Yes, I've got 2 questions related to the restructuring. It's good to see you getting ahead on that. And I see you got the EUR 800 million by the third quarter. It was I think the year-end target. I'm just wondering why you didn't actually increase the 800 -- you stay around over EUR 800 million now for the full year, but why you didn't just add EUR 100 million or something to presumably you want to keep beating these numbers. And then I know you don't like talking about the profitability by country, but I'm going to keep batting on about Germany because obviously that was a big standout comment in '23 with the EBIT losses there.

Just wondering if you were to try and pull back if Germany is approaching the breakeven on EBIT now with the performance upswing we've seen.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Peter, on your question for the cost savings we rather like to overdeliver. It's great that we brought in the 800 already by the end of the third quarter. Are we stopping now? Are we pressing forward, of course, the latter a quarter with a lot of things going on as you appreciate. So it doesn't make sense probably at the end of October to come with a new number, but I'm confident that in our next call, we will report then the savings run rate achievement for 2024 that will, for sure, be higher than EUR 800 million.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

So on your Peter, try on your attempt to get the profitability by country out. I'm still not biting. But let me give comfort that we are actually moving in the right direction. If I look at the Germany results, which I have to say also for us, we always have to take these numbers with a grain of salt because of also intra group bookings of cost and so between different countries.

But generally, if I look at this, the majority of our segments actually have a significant improvement in the profitability also in Germany, in our local companies here. Not all of the segments have improved, but most of the segments have actually improved.

So it looks to me like we are on the track, and we're both seeing this operationally as well as the effect already of our restructuring coming in, and this is just the beginning.

[Operator]

Okay. We now have Andreas Heine and later on, Geoff Haire and Sebastian Bray to conclude. But now Andreas Heine Stifel.

[Andreas Heine, analyst]

Actually, I'd like to expand on Peter's question on the regional earnings trends. So if I look on the JV income in the P&L, and it looks like the China has not really improved. Maybe you can qualitatively expand a little bit how the 3 regions, North America, Asia and Europe have contributed to the earnings increase exclusively on the core business, which was a strong part. Can you please expand a little bit more on Care Chemicals, you have quite a strong volume here, peers have seen a slowing in volume trend, you can elucidate a little bit on why care chemicals have been showing this strong trend also in the second half of this year.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

I'll start with the easier question, Andreas, the Care Chemicals business, I don't want to comment now on why my competitors are not seeing what I see, but I can tell you that if I look at the various pieces of the business for Care Chemicals. We actually see positive contribution from volume across all business lines.

So personal care, home care, industrial formulators and [indiscernible] effect into all up in volume in the third quarter compared to prior year. So based on this, I see also an overall a market environment that is, let's say, still compared to some of the more industrial markets that we serve, like automotive, construction and others are in quite good shape. So I'm not surprised by this.

And on top of that, comes a margin expansion also in all of these sub businesses. So our Care Chemicals business really doing quite well and positions itself in the market also favorably, but I don't want to comment on why my competitors are not seeing the same performance that I see. With regards to regions, since I'm not looking at the regional results, so much, I have to actually look this up while we talk a little bit.

So if I look at the regional results, you are right in assuming that the business -- that the results in China have been weaker, but only slightly weaker, I have to say. So not as dramatic as you might think. So they're slightly gone backwards in Q3 versus prior year. And in all other regions, we have actually also increased EBIT before special items. So most pronounced in North America but I cannot give you more details on this because I'm not looking at the individual, let's say, business units by regions on a quarterly basis.

So overall, we're seeing positive earnings trends in all regions in the core businesses with the exception of China where it has slightly received.

[Operator]

Now we have Geoff Haire, UBS.

[Geoffery Haire, analyst]

I just wanted to ask one question. We've seen a number of companies reviewing strategic review in their upstream assets in Europe, particularly U.S. companies died last week. Would you have any interest in being a consolidator in Europe? Or is that something that you would rather focused CapEx or cash elsewhere in the world.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

The answer is very simple. I was I think also maybe not super outspoken, but a bit outspoken on this on the Capital Markets Day. I mean based on the analysis that we have also done now doing our strategy work, again, confirming the largely competitive nature of our key assets here in Europe and, of course, anticipating a wave of also consolidations in the chemical industry in Europe, in particular, but also globally, I consider the consolidation -- the necessary consolidation in Europe in the chemical industry as an opportunity for BASF.

And I will leave it there. I don't want to be more -- any more specific, but that's certainly something where I think based on our strength, our technology position, it is plausible that BASF is rather going to emerge as a consolidator than the opposite

[Operator]

Now the final question or questions from Sebastian -- It's the wrong name he stated from Citi. Please go ahead.

[Sebastian Bray, analyst]

I have 2, please. The first is on the extended deadline for recommencing vitamin production at Ludwigshafen, I imagine that the total loss business and cost of repair are probably in excess of EUR 300 million. I appreciate it was said at the CMD that this was not easily insurable, but is there any chance of getting any of this money back at some stage next year?

My second question is just on the in-principal impact of tariff policy. Depending on the outcome of the U.S. election, there might be substantial increases, at least between U.S. and China. Are there any direct impacts on the BASF structure in terms of importing or exporting within the company from 1 region to another? Or is this broadly neutral for the firm?

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

Sebastian I start with your question on Nutrition. Your estimate of EUR 300 million, I think we can say in all fairness is too high. You're right that there will also be impact on the business for the first half of the year. You may in the meantime, have seen also the announced ramp-up plans for the Roma business, but also for the vitamins so first part already ramping up this year, then vitamins next year, you've seen that probably on the web page.

So it is from all we can safely say today below 300. But next year, we will still have a low triple-digit million impact for sure. Is there insurance in place? And will that be also covered by insurance, certainly partly, as you know, with insurance policies were never be covering the full damage, but partly, there's also insurance claims to be discussed.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

And I'll take your question on tariff policy. It's, of course, that's a big one. We can spend an hour on this going back and forth. I mean -- and we have, in general, and I really have to be broad here now in general, not a big exposure to this in our business because we don't have value chains that really extend beyond the major regions of China, U.S., to a large extent.

So our strategy to have our assets in the markets under a let's say, more tightening trade regime in the world will actually prove to be even more valuable than it was in the past. However, this, of course, affects our customer industries. And now we are also let's say, typically, in our large customer industries exposed in all regions.

So we are nicely present in all regions, but this, of course, could lead to regional shifts. My biggest concern in general is that this will lead to a slower growth overall of the global economy. I'm a big proponent of that, at the end of the day, economies, especially in our current day and age, grow fastest when there is free trade.

If there is hindrances of free trade of, let's say, economically optimized trade flows, then at the end of the day, it might actually lead to lower growth in general, and that will certainly be a challenging at least couple of years until things have realigned. But this is nothing specific to BASF.

I think BASF, if I look across my setup that I have both market-wise as well as supply chain-wise, I feel much better than most companies should feel in this environment where quite drastic tariff regimes might be established in a very quick period of time. So I think we're very robust with regards to this, but it will not be good for the economy.

[Operator]

Okay. And sorry, Sebastian, of course, for [indiscernible] was correct. We have now one more question, if that's okay, because we are still within the time limit, Georgina Fraser, Goldman Sachs. So now you have the final question, please.

[Georgina Iwamoto, analyst]

This time last year, you included in your third quarter presentation, a chart looking at one of your, I think, key internal indicators of demand. It was called indicators for stock levels in manufacturing, our stock purchases per region. And at the time, it showed Western Europe and North America with stock purchases at very low levels and in a zone, which was highlighted as a kind of inflection point, which we obviously didn't see yet.

I was just wondering how do those look today? You also showed Asia Pacific, which was above kind of long-term trends. But if you could just elucidate what those indicators are telling you at the moment, that would be great.

[Markus Kamieth, executive]

I mean I can start, Dirk, I was just looking at whether he has the charts in front of me because we occasionally look at these slides or at these charts and this data again. And I have to tell you, my takeaway is that right now, especially in 2024 if you look at this data, you almost get more question marks than you have answers because if you look, for example, at the inventory levels that are reported to this data for Europe, we would see continued destocking now for a huge period of time, which is just physically, I think, for me, unimaginable.

So I lack a little bit the translation of such data now to the real world. So that's why we are no longer including them here also in this -- in our statements because it doesn't make necessarily too much sense. What I can say is, overall, I think we have to acknowledge that destocking in our supply chains and also downstream in our customers has largely come into an end.

However, we are still facing in many industries, of course, an overall weak demand picture. And so we are not seeing any turnaround of this that people are actually preparing for growth also for going into 2025 that's why I said earlier, I still expect that 2024 Q4, there's room for tactical buying behavior. So we have to be on the watch out here.

But I would say no more destocking across the board that we see and eventually, if demand comes back, there is still quite some refilling of value chains that we can expect. So that's certainly an upside for 2025. But first, the confidence has to come back that actual growth -- actual demand growth is actually materializing in most of the regions.

So I would say there's a pent-up upside if you want, on the supply chain side, but not more at this point in time.

[Dirk Elvermann, executive]

And Georgina, if I may, just support what Markus said. I mean we used at that time, this graph also to corroborate our statement on volume development and price development. Remember, that was the time of high uncertainty, and we started to predict by the middle of the year. That quarter-over-quarter, now the volumes will catch up, which happened and that then the prices will be dragged along, which also happened. And I think so at that time, it was helpful.

But in the current situation, it's probably not so helpful, as Markus said, to include it anymore. These days, we are looking rather into than the purchase manager indices, et cetera. and follow the stocking and destocking behaviors. But at that time, I think it was helpful to somewhat forecast what not really happened in terms of volume and price development.

[Operator]

We are now at the end of today's conference call. Let me take this opportunity to draw your attention to a dinner with Board members that we will host in London on Thursday, November 21. And send out invitations to investors and analysts by the end of this week. Should you have any further questions regarding our Q3 reporting, please do not hesitate to contact a member of the BASF IR team. Thank you for joining us today, and goodbye for now.