Traton SE

XETRA:8TRA

Earnings Call Analysis

TRATON Group Strong Performance, Upbeat 2023 Outlook

TRATON Group reported a 7% sales revenue growth to EUR 11.3 billion, showing resilience with an 8.4% adjusted return on sales, climbing by 320 basis points year-over-year. Vehicle Services business saw mixed performance, with Scania and MAN expanding, and Navistar declining due to a previous divestiture. The company expects a 2023 sales growth of 10-20% and has raised the full year adjusted return on sales forecast to 7.5-8.5%, from the previous 7.0-8.0%. They've also increased net cash flow forecast for TRATON Operations to EUR 2.3-2.8 billion. New electric vehicle (EV) offerings and established TRATON Charging Solutions are set to capitalize on the growing demand for EVs, despite current modest order translations.

TRATON Optimistic Amidst Geopolitical and Market Challenges

TRATON Group navigated a complex geopolitical landscape, facing a global economic downturn and variable transport activities. Despite such challenges, the company delivered remarkably robust demand, thanks to backlog orders and resilience in most markets. The ongoing normalization of operations after fluctuating years saw unit sales rise and revenues grow to EUR 955 million, underpinned by improved supply chains and successful vehicle services. Impressively, TRATON holds a strong order book, even with attempts to reduce lengthy lead times, as they march steadily towards their strategic goals.

A Closer Look at TRATON's Financial Fortitude

TRATON's financial narrative in the third quarter reflected continued momentum, with earnings nearly touching the EUR 1 billion mark and a respectable 8.4% adjusted return on sales—a 320 basis point leap year-over-year. This result stems from amplified production, efficient pricing strategies, and rigid cost management, despite increased input costs. The brands shone individually, with Scania and Navistar displaying strong operational capability, and Volkswagen Truck & Bus tackling tough markets with agility. The quarter also positioned TRATON well on its way to achieving a strategic 9% adjusted return on sales by 2024.

Refined Outlook as TRATON Eyes Market Expansion

With the third quarter showcasing financial strength, TRATON revised forecasts upwards for the full-year outlook, expecting adjusted operating returns on sales now to be within 7.5% to 8.5% for the group, and 8.0% to 9.0% for TRATON Operations, thanks to the high order backlog and steady production upswing fueled by supply chain improvements. The projected net cash flow range has also been extended to EUR 2.3 billion - EUR 2.8 billion. Encouraged by the financial results of the first nine months, TRATON anticipates closing the fiscal year toward the higher end of the updated guidance range.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the TRATON 9 months 2023 Interim Statement Results Conference Call. Thank you for joining us today.Before we start, let me first make you aware of the disclaimer. As always, you can find all relevant documents on our 9 months and third quarter performance on our website, traton.com/ir, including the slides of today's presentation.Together with me are Christian Levin, our CEO; and Michael Jackstein, our CFO and CHRO. I'm also joined by Camilla Dewoon, Head of Corporate Relations. Christian will start with an overview. Michael will then explain the financial performance in the third quarter in more detail before we conclude the presentation with the full year outlook. After the presentation, we look forward to answering your questions. We will start with questions from analysts and investors. And in the final minutes of our call, we will open the floor for questions from the media as well.With that, I hand it over to Christian.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Excellent. Thank you very much, Thomas, and thanks, everyone, for being with us this morning.So yes, let's have a look at the third quarter of this year. Evidently, we are in a tricky geopolitical environment. Macroeconomics are not particularly in favor any more. We see weaken trends in global economy. And as a result, we start to see lower transport activities, but not in all markets as we're coming back to. So, despite that, we still have a robust demand. We, of course, live partly from the high pent-up demand, but we also see this in transport activity in most of the market. So you could say that we're returning to something that could look like more of a normal situation after these last years of ups and downs. In this challenging environment, I think we have performed an excellent performance in Q3. We see a lower order intake on 3 of our brands, at least. But still on a high comparable level and with a very strong order book with reduced lead times, but still too long lead times to be really where we want them.Unit sales are up. We continue to increase our production volumes with the exception of a contract of a bus in Brazil. Thanks to improved supply chain situation. So we still see an upside here as we are working hard to decrease the order book.So sales revenues continued to increase. We have higher volumes. We have a positive mix. We see really good price realization and as a result, a very -- and also to the result of very solid Vehicle Services business. So all in all, if we summarize, we are achieving EUR 955 million, which in adjusted terms, return on sales takes us to 8.4%. So as you, I'm happy with the results in our first 9 months. And what we're now doing is that, we, of course, have full focus on continuing to deliver towards our full year guidance. And, of course, for next year, trying for the first time ever to achieve our strategic target.On the next page, let's also have a few looks at the perhaps not direct financial results, but other positive developments in the group so far this year and a few highlights. First of all, looking at the financial services side, where you're well aware that we have grouped all the brands under TRATON Financial Services umbrella, and we went live now in North America with Navistar Financial Services, meaning that we are coming back in the market with a Captive Financial Services organization, which is so important in the overall services business where we can make tailor-made solutions for customers and by that, grabbing a bigger part of their wallet. On top of that, this is, of course, a way to leverage our competencies and our systems, and you can call that, of course, synergies.On the sustainability journey, I think many of you noticed that we opened up a new battery assembly plant in Sodertalje, where we will assemble the cells, the unique cells coming from Northvolt, where we have also seen fantastic results, bringing lifetime up to 1.5 million kilometers. We have also stopped the line of assembly in Sodertalje throughout summer. And as we're speaking, we're just restarting in order to adapt it to full serial production of a mix and actually any mix between 0%, 100%, 0% BEVs and ICE vehicles.We also, in Volkswagen Truck & Bus brand, delivered our first full BEV, 100% BEV in Argentina to Express Logistica, it was an e-delivery with the higher tonnage, the 14-tonne version with a range up to 250 kilometers. And that's, of course, an important market of Volkswagen Truck & Bus. The biggest export market, and we're seeing then finally, ambitions also in Argentina to grow with electrification. Another e-mobility adoption is the first delivery of an MAN eBus outside of Europe, where we in South Africa are delivering the first eBus. Also, Navistar, joining in on the pathway towards science-based targets have now signed with UN Global Compact, which is underlining that we, as a group, are all in on the sustainability journey that started many years ago in Scania.And finally, I think worth noticing that the super powertrain continue. It's a long straight of winning press tests this time, the so-called European Truck Challenge, which is a multi-magazine, multinational test run out of Germany. And we did that with quite a distance in terms of fuel consumption to the next brand and that is, of course, extremely promising for the ongoing launch in the United States with the so-called S13, which is the same engine in international products.On next page, we look a little bit more into our figures. And seeing then incoming orders at 64,400 units, which, yes, it is a decline to the very high prior year level, and it's giving us a book-to-bill ratio of 0.8x. At the same time, we managed to increase quarter-to-quarter last year, Q3 to Q3. Our unit sales, another 2% up to 81,400. And as I said, we're doing that despite still challenging market environment, but also challenges in the supply chain. Yes, it's better. We see a further stabilization, but we have disruptions and especially in the United States where the supplier market is extremely stretched. We do continue to experience regular bottlenecks.So, with that, we were then able to shorten down delivery times. So we are going towards normalization, but we still, in most of our brands, experienced a 6-month waiting time for customers, meaning that we're well into 2024 in some cases, all the way up to next summer for new orders, which leads me into the next page, where you then see that overall demand remains on a high level. Europe is weakening. There's no doubt about it. We've previously talked about market ordering to Russia, but now we see a general weakening throughout most of the markets in Europe and especially the big and important market of Germany is seeing a more pronounced decline. Why is this? Well, obviously, we have grown the rolling fleet already. And we have, of course, the interest rates that are making financing more expensive and on top of that, very high diesel prices.MAN being more exposed to the European market is here experiencing a tougher situation in Scania. Scania, having a very good run in Latin America, where we -- in the segments where Scania's presence see a strong recovery, means in, for instance, the important agricultural segment, but also mining and forestry. And therefore, as a result, you actually see Scania overall order intake continuing to grow in the third quarter.In North America, we see a gradual normalization of the demand, and I'm sure we will come back to this in the questions-and-answer session. But on Navistar, we see then a rather sharp decline in order intake. Remember, we still have the long order book. We have the biggest challenges to deliver vehicles. But at the same time, and perhaps a paradox, we see market shares for international continuing to grow and according to plan.South America, we've talked about that previous quarters is affected by, well, the challenges after the elections. The CONOMA P8, the new emission legislation and overall economic weakness. But good news, we see on the heavy end as I would into specific segments in stabilization and actually even an increase, whereas in the medium-duty and lighter-duty segments, we still are on a lower level, which is reflected in the order intake and delivery results from Volkswagen Truck & Bus. So that was the quick fly in.And with that, I will leave over to Michael to go more into the financial outcome on this third quarter, and then I'm coming back to you in a moment. Michael, please?

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Yes. Thank you very much, Christian. And also good morning from my side. As Christian said, let's dive into our financial performance. On Slide 10, you can see our sales revenue development. Sales revenue increased by 7% to EUR 11.3 billion compared to a high prior year basis. This development was mainly driven by the growth of new vehicle sales and favorable mix effects. In addition, we continued to benefit from the successful realization of higher vehicle prices. Another factor continuing to support our top line is the Vehicle Services business. Demand for spare parts and repair and maintenance service remains high given aged fleets and strong utilization.Moving on to Slide 11 and the bottom line performance. As you can see, the TRATON Group continued its strong earnings momentum, both in absolute and relative terms, even though slightly not reaching the Q2 level. The adjusted operating result again came close to the EUR 1 billion mark. This corresponds to a strong adjusted return on sales of 8.4%, up by 320 basis points year-over-year compared to an admittedly low comparison base in the prior year quarter. The positive development was, in particular, due to the higher utilization of our production capacities, higher vehicle deliveries and the associated better fixed cost absorption. In addition, thanks to the successful execution of pricing initiatives for new vehicles across all our brands over the last quarters, we're able to compensate for the significantly increased prices for energy, raw materials, labor costs and bought-in components, not to forget our strong focus on cost management.A side note, in the third quarter, we had adjustments of EUR 59 million for the provisions for civil lawsuits against Scania and MAN in connection with the EU truck cases in individual countries. These were recognized as a consequence of the update remeasurement of risks. Overall, another strong quarter, which impressively underlines that the TRATON Group is on track towards the strategic adjusted return on sales target of 9% by 2024.Let us now have a closer look at the performance of our brands and segments. In the third quarter, all brands except for Volkswagen Truck & Bus benefited from robust volumes and therefore, good production capacity utilization. Sales revenues in the Vehicle Services business continued to expand at both Scania and MAN, while Navistar recorded a decline, mainly due to the sale of MWM in late 2022. Another common theme across all our brands with different dynamics was successful pricing initiatives, which helped to compensate for strong input cost pressures.On a brand level, Scania achieved 11.5% RoS, clearly up year-over-year, but weaker than the exceptionally strong H1 figures. Scania was influenced by the typical vacation effects and a different market mix as the proportion of the European unit sales went down quarter-over-quarter and South America, where the penetration of the new Scania Super is lower, went up.After an already strong first half, MAN Truck & Bus recorded another impressive step up to an adjusted return on sales of 7.8% in the third quarter, despite the usual production pause in the summer. One more proof point that MAN is on track with the execution of the realignment program.Navistar showed a robust performance at a return on sales of 7.3%, outgrowing the margin levels achieved in the past quarters. Better pricing, as well as better cost control, gain traction and help to increase return on sales, despite lower unit sales compared to the third quarter last year. Within the group, Navistar was most affected by supply chain constraints, which limited their ability to deliver higher volumes.Volkswagen Truck & Bus continuously facing challenging market conditions. However, recorded a remarkably strong return on sales of 10.1%, despite significantly lower unit sales. This is another proof of the brand's ability to master stormy markets with its highly flexible business model.Finally, TRATON Financial Services recorded a double-digit percentage growth on the back of an expansion of its portfolio and increased interest income. Higher funding costs and lower spreads had a counteracting effect on profitability.This leads me to our net cash flow development on the next page, Page 13. TRATON Operations recorded a strong net cash flow of EUR 649 million in the third quarter, bringing the 9 months figure to plus EUR 2.4 billion. Excluding the special effects, highlighted in the first and second quarter, net cash flow of TRATON Operations amounted to EUR 1.5 billion in the first 9 months, reflecting the strongly improved operating performance. Nevertheless, net cash flow is still held back by an increase in working capital. EUR 1.4 billion cash was tied up in the 9-month period because of the strong expansion of production volumes and ongoing logistics shortages. This also ensures that we can keep our delivery promises to our customers.On a positive note, in the third quarter, the negative effect of working capital was much less pronounced with EUR 0.2 billion and cash conversion has been gradually improving quarter-over-quarter this year. A note on this, with adjusted operating profit nearly unchanged from first quarter, we were able to almost double our net cash flow, excluding special effects in the third quarter compared to the first quarter. Optimizing working capital and reducing our net debt position remains a key priority for us, which brings me to the next page.During the first 9 months, we were able to reduce the net financial debt of TRATON Operations, including corporate items by about EUR 1.1 billion to EUR 6.6 billion as per end of September. In the third quarter alone, we were able to reduce net debt by more than EUR 400 million. The main driver was the strongly improved operating performance, partly compensated by the just mentioned working capital development. While the net debt position benefited from the EUR 400 million proceeds from the sale of Scania Finance Russia early in the year, the impact from the intragroup transfer of Scania Financial Services was neutral. Also, important to notice that we paid out the dividend for fiscal year 2022, amounting to a cash out of EUR 350 million in the second quarter.With that, back to you, Christian.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Good. Thank you, Michael. And then we're stepping into the section where we talk a little bit about the outlook for the rest of the year 2023 here in our main regions, starting with Europe, where we continue to see increases to exceptionally high levels and our expectation for 2023 is continue to see a growth in the range of 10% to maybe 20%, which would mean that we must probably see an all-time high all times, real all-time high in the European market this year 2023.Interesting dynamics in the North American market, where we have a range of plus 10% to plus 20%, where, as we've already been into here several times were held back by supply chain issues. And I guess that is the same for most players in the market as our market shares at the same time continue in a good direction upwards. We also have different dynamics here in different parts of the market. We see a stronger development in the severe and the mid, the Class 6 and 7 medium-duty trucks than in the heavy-duty trucks.And finally, South America, where we have seen a rather sharp decline, and we are talking now about the minus in the range of even minus 25%, even if, as I said, we also see some lights at the end of the tunnel here. But the heavy part of the Brazilian market, for instance, is showing a recovery. And so does Chile, whereas most other markets remain low. We should also mention here Mexico, that is actually developing at a very, very good pace.So let's see where that brings us. I think the essence of this whole section is that, it's very difficult to predict, and we need to be prepared also when entering into 2024 to react both to ups and downs in different parts of the world.So with that, Michael, back to you.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Thanks, Christian, and then we move to the next slide. And here, in the light of the strong results in the third quarter, we are raising our forecast for the full year outlook, which we had upgraded in May with the release of the first quarter results. Based on the current high order backlog and the rising production volumes, resulting from the improved supply chain situation, we continue to expect to grow both unit sales and sales revenue by 5% to 15%. Overall, for the group, we are raising our forecast for the adjusted operating return on sales in the full year 2023 and now expecting a range of 7.5% to 8.5% from 7.0% to 8.0% before. For the TRATON Operations business area, we're now anticipating an adjusted operating return on sales of between 8.0% and 9.0%. Also, we're increasing the forecast range for the net cash flow of TRATON Operations to EUR 2.3 billion to EUR 2.8 billion. Please bear in mind that the effect from the Scania Financial Services intragroup transfer and the sale of Scania Finance Russia are included. On the back of a strong financial performance in the first 9 months of the year with an adjusted operating return on sales of 8.6%, we expect to close the full year rather towards the upper end of guidance range.With that, back to you, Christian, for the final remarks.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Michael. Just a few words before we go into the Q&A. So as we said last year and at the beginning of this year, we have now a new management team fully on board. Our focus has been to deliver and force execution of the strategy, the so-called TRATON Way Forward. And I think this quarter is yet another proof point that we're moving in the right direction. And I think we do that by succeeding in a rather challenging market environment.So a strong performance, I would say, across all of our 4 brands and in several of our segments. The focus continues to be on the customer, the customer needs and, of course, creating flexibility depending on the market development. We see a very good net cash flow development and our net debt position, which we know is stretched is, however, thanks to our own performance now, a little bit improved. And I think there is, as Michael was into -- going into the fourth quarter room for further improvement.We're raising our positive full year '23 outlook. We're targeting the upper end of that guidance range for adjusted return on sales, and I really look forward to ending this year with that very positive outcome. So we're driving strategy execution by developing both the companies, the product and the services portfolio.A few highlight lately, taking new technology to the street and further expanding our electric vehicle portfolio, we started sales of the new MAN eTruck, end of October here this month, and we delivered the first truck, as I already mentioned, for Volkswagen Truck & Bus in Argentina, and we see further increased demand on electric vehicles, albeit with still small transformations into orders and deliveries.We have established TRATON Charging Solutions, something that enables the most extensive network of public charging locations with right now 11 countries, and the first customers to benefit this will be coming from the Scania brand. Navistar starts up production right now of the S13 international integrated powertrain based on our Common Base Engine in the group, and we will shortly see that on the roads and get the first real customer feedbacks, so extremely exciting times in the U.S. in the upcoming months.Our Captive Financial Services business has now rolled out in the U.S. and Canada -- sorry, in U.S., and we are aiming also for Canada. And as already mentioned, this Navistar Financial Services retail business is a great complement to growing our overall service business in the American market where we see so much potential.So to keep it short and summarize, I think we keep on delivering as TRATON, both in operating terms, in financial performance and finally, in executing on our strategy.So with that, summary, I hand back to Thomas to lead us into the Q&A.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Let us now open the floor for the Q&A. As said, we will start with questions from analysts and investors, and we'll take questions from media at the end. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

[Hampus Engellau, analyst]

Two questions from me. First question is on -- if you could share some thoughts on how we see next year development? We had Volvo talking about 290,000 units for Europe and North America. We had PACCAR yesterday talking about 280,000 for Europe and 280,000 for U.S. and Canada, so ex Mexico.Second question is, is this also coming on your guidance? Still a quite big range, 5% to 15%. We have 1 quarter left. Should we read that as the supply chain and component availability that make you keeping this big range given that's only 1 quarter left? Those are my 2 questions.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Okay. Thanks, Hampus, Christian here. I can take the first one. Yes, we're very much in line with both what you heard from Volvo and PACCAR in terms of total market outlook. And to put that a little bit into context, if we start with U.S. or North America, including Mexico, there is a very good momentum in the market. And we see the big fleets continuing to buy. We see a little bit of weakening in the Class 8, as I was saying too, but we see Class 6 and 7 with at least a flat outlook compared to this year. And on top of that, with all the construction initiatives now happening as a result of the IRA, there is massive investments into the severe segment as it's called in the U.S., basically construction, vehicle construction material vehicles. So I'm looking very positively to the development in the U.S. And, of course, we're also aiming to grow market shares there as we are still under critical, I would say. But we stick to our plan, we've said 1% to 2% per year is what we should take and with the launch of the S13, I think there's a good chance. So really, I think, more confident that the U.S. market keeps up.In Europe, we rely more on the pent-up demand. We will, for sure, see some kind of weakening downwards. We will not see an all-time high like this year, but if we are in the range 280,000, 290,000, I think that's still a very high good European market. Our order book takes us well into the first half of the year up towards summer. Question is, of course, and I said that in the last Q call as well, what is going to happen in the second half of the year. But when we look to the last 4 years where demand has been suppressed by COVID and then later by shortages, it's reasonable to believe that with the new more efficient machines that we put into the market, the pent-up demand will be compensated and there will not be so much hesitation for customers to shift over. It will make sense for them still financially when the interest rates for them are now in the range of 6% or even 6.5% for the financing costs. So yes, that's to give us -- give you a little bit more -- a little more flesh on the bones when it comes to total market development, U.S. and Europe.Your second question was a bit on our guidance, and I hand that over to Michael.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Yes. And happy to answer that question, of course. I mean, we left the range. That was your question, let's say, by 1 percentage point, and we raised it to 7.5% to 8.5%. As I said before, we expect to close the full year rather towards the upper end of this guidance range. But nevertheless, there are quite some elements, some cost elements, which are typically higher in the fourth quarter compared to the 9 months before. And we all know that we are still in an inflationary environment. And then as already mentioned during the call and as said by Christian also, there are still high macroeconomic uncertainties. We still have, as you mentioned, vulnerable situation in the global supply chain. Overall, we see an ease, but it's still -- and it remains challenging, will remain challenging in the next year, too. We still have tight logistic capacities, and we see movements in prices for energy, raw materials, bought-in components. So there are a couple of factors also why we think that this is the right range, 7.5% to 8.5%. But again, we expect to end rather towards the upper end of the guidance.

[Christian Levin, executive]

I can just add on one thing when you went into the supply chain, Hampus. And I mean -- and you've seen it in our stock buildup. I mean, we're stabilizing production and we're doing rather good runs now on the much higher levels in all the 3 big brands. But we're not getting the vehicles through to end customers and out of our books. And why is that? Why is it so difficult to get the vehicles through? Well, it is really still about the supply chain because, yes, we managed to produce, but we don't produce in the sequence and in the time slot that we had planned, meaning that the body builder or the dealer that is supposed to receive the vehicle where the customer is waiting doesn't get it in the right time, which creates tremendous planning problems in the other, which is kind of an industrial flow as well. I mean, you're doing hundreds of operations on a vehicle when it's -- after it's a left factory. And they need to be planned, of course. There are parts to be purchased. There are paint shops to be booked. There are workshops to be booked. There are technical controls to be booked and not least to talk about all the body builders.So with a very short planning horizon, we keep changing the dates, and this is now our challenge here for the coming 6 months. We have stabilized production. Now we need also to stabilize the delivery, what we -- I mean, the delivery functions in all our dealers. That's a huge job. It will take time, and that gives us -- there's a big risk that we're not getting the complete volumes through. And that will then, of course, have an effect on the results. So that's why the supply chain is really creating uncertainty for the Q4. Production wise, we're aiming at very high volumes. I stop there.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Our next question comes from Michael Jacks from Bank of America.

[Michael Jacks, analyst]

I'll limit myself to 2. Maybe just firstly, are you able to perhaps quantify the benefits expected next year from restructuring that's now been implemented at MAN and rising commonality across the group? I'm just trying to get a feel for the level of internal buffers that you might have to offset any expected volume declines into next year.And then just in terms of the Common Base Engine rollout at Navistar. I appreciate that order books aren't fully open yet. But should we expect a fairly strong uptick in orders here in the fourth quarter already? Or would you expect that sort of truck market normalization effects will be the more dominant force?

[Christian Levin, executive]

Okay. Thank you very much, Michael. If I start with your second one on the Common Base Engine, which we call S13 in Navistar. So, we're starting with a small volume of deliveries during Q4. That will not have any impact on our volumes, but it will have a good impact on these vehicles on profitability. As you might remember, we have talked about fuel savings in the range of 15%, even 16%. So basically the double from what we managed to get out on the Scania product. On the Scania product, we're getting an average EUR 3,000 extra per vehicle based on that. So we are expecting to get an even better price leverage when we start to deliver these vehicles in the international chassis.Moving into next year, we are, of course, increasing production, but there are, as always, in industrial projects, there are a number of constraints. So we're looking at total volumes of the S13 next year in the range of 15,000 to 20,000. So meaning somewhere up to 1/4 of the Navistar volumes. I'm not expecting -- the team is not expecting that either to drive order intake. And I know that you see a sharp decline in our order intake figures in the U.S., which is a paradox because we really are filling and we are full up until summer. But -- so I think we will use this more to make sure that we increase profitability. And that, of course, this product has to prove itself in the market. But we really predominantly use it in order to gain profitability.And then market share ambitions, if we're able to end this year in the range 15.5% to 16%, then we follow the path since our takeover of Navistar to gain 1% to 2% per year. If you remember, we were down to 11% when we finalized the takeover. So if we're up towards 16% this year, I would be very happy. Could we then continue next year by hopefully the vertical stabilization in supply chain to gain market share at 17% would, of course, be fantastic. And then with a good price realization, we will get a really, really good leverage from our U.S. business. So, that's a few words around the CBE launch in Navistar.I could expand that also by saying or by reminding you that with the launch, we also go kind of, what I would say, go European, in terms of services sales, meaning we start to commercialize full repair and maintenance contracts also financed over the Navistar Financial Services in the U.S., meaning that we try to bundle in with the S13 product, more service content to reverse or to move towards the European way of selling trucks where you know that on an absolute majority, there are several services contracts adapted or added to the vehicle, which brings a lot of profitability to the brand. So that's to be said in addition. So we really use this for a double leverage, not volumes, but price realization and services sales.Good. Your first question was really on MAN, and I leave that over to Michael to elaborate a little bit.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Yes. Maybe not too long, but I mean, you asked a question here regarding the realignment program of MAN. And then what can we expect for next year, even though, let's say, I cannot give you a concrete figure, but I think I can describe a little bit what we also expect and anticipate here from MAN. And first, let me say, of course, the realignment program at various components. Typically, it's not one single thing that you do, it's many things. And, of course, the MAN team has looked into typical topics like creating efficiencies, looking for synergies, of course, working on costs, what they keep on doing.And then one of the big factors that you're well aware, of course, is the sale of the Steyr plant, which took place already in 2022. We continued to get the trucks out of Steyr light- and medium-duty trucks until the end of September, which means that now in October, we have shifted the production of light- and medium-duty trucks fully to our plant in Krakow. In addition to this, we are not only talking about the shift from Steyr to the Krakow plant. Partially, we also shift volume from the Munich plant to the Krakow plant. So you have to take that into consideration as well. Bottom line is when we talk about the Steyr plant, you can say that we now exploit the full financial benefit of the sale of the Steyr plant and the optimized production network.And then when we come to what do we have to expect for 2024. I mean, we want to really make the point that you have seen the figures of MAN in quarter 1, 2 and 3. We clearly believe this is sustainable. And what MAN is aiming for, for next year. Of course, as Christian has mentioned, when we look at the markets, the market environment is not getting easier. But we are quite confident that we see a sustainable development here at MAN for the various reasons I mentioned. And I can show you that the MAN management team here that they see what's happening right now, and they clearly have the ambition to keep that level or even increase it and to say they want more. So, we're, from my point of view, on a good track. So we will see the positive effects of the realignment program continue next year.I hope that answers your question.

[Michael Jacks, analyst]

Yes. That's great detail. And Christian, maybe just 1 quick follow-up, Christian, on the first one. I haven't fully appreciated the extent of the market share gains at Navistar over the last year or so. Are you able to just give a little bit of color behind that? What's driven this?

[Christian Levin, executive]

Yes. Of course, I mean, if you look historically, international, it's an iconic brand with the biggest dealer network in the U.S. was enjoying market shares in the Class 6, 7 up to 50% and in the Class 8 up to 25% and has done throughout the challenges on the emission side with the A26, the derivative of the MAN D26 engine problems challenged by EPA for emissions. And customers having severe quality problems have then dropped. And when we took over, as I said, we were down to 11-point-something percent, but that's, of course, not at all aligned with neither production capacity, nor dealer capacity, nor customer base.So what weighted us in the U.S. when we started to travel there and when Mathias Carlbaum came as new CEO was really a dealer and customer base who just told us, please give us good products, give us a good service, we want you back. We do not want this market, especially on the fleet side to be dominated by Freightliner. We need you guys. And that gave us a lot of energy to restart, you could say, Navistar with completely different ambitions and set up a renewal program on basically everything, starting with culture in the company, getting the dealers along and that we have now been voted by the dealer associations as the best supplier actually. So we've done a good job there with the dealers. We're reviewing the product program. So we have now a very consistent road map, both for electric vehicles and buses and for trucks, which is, of course, giving a lot of hope to the dealer network. And we're working very hard to bring in the European way of thinking in terms of services and part of that financial services. And I think we are building trust, we're gradually delivering what the customers expect from us, including a lot of -- there's a lot of details in our industry. I mean, we have parts available with shorter lead times, better availability. We're meeting with customers more often. We are working hard with the methods in our workshops to get the vehicles out on the streets again, after maintenance and repairs. So all of these differences are noted by the customer base, and we see a very continued positive feedback.At the same time, we must be very careful not to grow market shares too quickly, both because we don't want to -- we may want to make sure we're not being accused of using the price weapon, which we certainly have not been doing in this market. We are coming from the lowest price point of all brands. We, of course, have the ambition to up that as we deserve it. But also, you need to have an organization that follows because if you deliver too many vehicles in too short time, you will not give the service that the customer requires.So I know it's not a very precise answer to your question, but we're working on all fronts to make Navistar the preferred supplier, not only for big fleets, but also for retail customers. And we're doing that, I think, with all the instruments that the big group, such as ours and with a tremendous experience also from the European side can bring, which I maybe should add that we have brought more than 50 people in from the other brands in the group to the U.S. to support the Navistar team on this journey. So the strategy is just to continue this growth. And again, I would be happy to see this year and towards the 16 and could we then gain another 1% or 2% next year. I would be extremely happy with the outcome. And again, this journey should continue.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

[Operator Instructions] Next question coming from Anthony Dick from ODDO BHF.

[Anthony Dick, analyst]

Yes. So you mentioned the higher interest costs in the financing environment. Could you maybe give some indication on what impact that will have on your own operation, on your own financial costs?

[Christian Levin, executive]

Okay. I think that's a question for Michael. So if I understand it, it was not for the Financial Services operation, it's really our own our own funding costs as straight, am I right, Anthony?

[Anthony Dick, analyst]

Yes, exactly.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Okay. Yes. I leave that to my CFO. Funding costs based on higher interest rates, Michael.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Well, I mean, the question is, I understand that you say how do we refinance what we have out here in the market, right?

[Anthony Dick, analyst]

Yes, just a question on your -- the impact of the higher rates on your interest cost, basically in your P&L, whether in the operations or the total group?

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

I mean, I cannot actually give you a concrete figure here, honestly speaking. I mean, in general, yes, we have both effects. I mean, we have effects on the negative side and on the positive side from the higher interest rates that we are seeing right now. I mean, what I can say is, I can give you an example to say if the market interest rates had been 100 basis points higher as of December 31, 2021, then the earnings after tax would have been EUR 41 million low in the previous year that would have been EUR 36 million lower. This is, I think, the best indication that I can give you to get some feeling regarding this question. I hope that supports what you're up to.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Next question is coming from Nicolai Kempf from Deutsche Bank.

[Nicolai Kempf, analyst]

Nicolai here from Deutsche Bank. Also 2 on my side. The first one would be on Scania. Scania seems a bit touch weaker here in Q3. We understand the summer break, and high input cost. But still, if you compare it to your Swedish peers in Gothenburg, it still seems a bit soft.And my second one is also regarding 2024. And I'm looking at the overall production cost of a truck. If you think about the moving parts here, labor costs will probably go up, input for us and raw material and steel going down. So what do you think that the overall cost of a truck will be go up or down next year?

[Christian Levin, executive]

Yes. Okay. Thanks, Nicolai. I guess, I have to take that one as CEO of Scania. So yes, you're right. I was not entirely happy with the 11.5% in Q3. I thought we could have done better, especially based on the good run in Q1 and Q2. What kept us back are a few things, which I can take you through, then the first is that, we -- and I touched it earlier, we had to close one of the assembly plants in Europe, the one in Sodertalje in Sweden because we rebuilt it for serial production of BEV vehicles. So we had it actually closed for almost 3 months. Normally, we close 3 or 4 weeks for maintenance over summer holidays, but we had to put in new floors to cope with the higher weights and the new [ ATD ] systems and so on and so forth. So rather big investments we had to do. And therefore, our logistic flows had to be -- became more complicated. We had to shift production over to France and Netherlands and then ship from there to customers in the North. And, of course, we came also into capacity restraints, both in production and logistics. I mean, this was planned. So as a consequence, we saw a lower volume output than what we would have seen otherwise. Most of that volume is now in Q4 and provided that Sodertalje as it seems now, we have a 1-week delay, but as it seems it's restarting in the way it should we get out of these challenges.So secondly, we have -- as was into here, we've had the reduced capacity in Brazil in production because of the very weak start of the year. But we see that now picking up in the third quarter. The but is that we then do not have the good product mix as we have in the European production system with a high proportion of the new driveline giving us an average EUR 3,000 only for the engine. And on top of that, actually a bit more because we have higher specification on the S13.And the third reason is that, we see a quite high increase of R&D costs, R&D and related CapEx costs in Scania. As Scania is now based on the decision to go with the TRATON Modular System based on the Scania Modular System taking lead in a lot of the R&D work that needs to be performed for all the brands in the group. You are seeing the first results with the driveline on the combustion engine side. But, of course, this will continue in terms of common chassis, common electrical system, common battery electric vehicles, both drives, software and well, the batteries as such. And a big part of that investments that we have to do now in the rather short term to quickly come common and ripe the benefits of scale are now taken on the Scania brand. Going forward, we will, of course, look into how we share these costs, and we are working on a new financial model that we will talk more about, Michael, in the upcoming calls later on. But that is the third reason why Scania's result is a bit weaker than what we perhaps all expected. I hope that's okay Nicolai.And then your second question, I think, was on the product costs in 2024, what do we really expect with all the pluses and the minuses and the big movements we see on energy cost on raw material cost, on labor costs? And if I summarize our forecast, we actually see a slight, not big, but a slight reduction of cost, which -- yes, you see raw materials coming down. Our contracts are long, so it's taking a long time. You see energy prices volatile, but in Sweden, predominantly coming down. So for Scania positive. But, of course, you see labor costs coming up steeply, not only what we agreed in negotiations, but also with -- yes, sliding whatever you call that in English, but we see an increase of salaries beyond what we have agreed in central negotiations, which is hurting us. So all in all, a summary of all of that is that we see slight decreases.And your follow-up question will then, of course, be, so is that reflected in negotiations with customers in terms of pricing? And the only thing I can say there is that, we're holding up. We have a very good price positioning in all our brands, and we have agreed to keep that up. And at the same time, of course, as the market is normalizing, and I'm expecting somewhere towards second quarter to see more of a tough market, again, where you fight for every order, you never know. And that's how our industry always worked. But I think we're coming out of this period where customers just had to accept price increases. And we're more going to come into a period where we will try to hold our prices.I stop there, Nicolai. I hope that was adequate answer.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Next question coming from Erik Golrang from SEB.

[Erik Golrang, analyst]

And I appreciate that color on the cost development. Two questions then. First, on the fully electric order intake, if you could just update on the composition of that? What's the heavy-duty share of it?And then secondly, on cash flow, EUR 1.4 billion working capital build so far, what you expect for the full year? And what's your basic thinking for how working capital develops next year in relation to sales?

[Christian Levin, executive]

Are we on? Yes, we're on. Yes. Okay. Yes, order intake on full electric vehicle is far from satisfactory. I don't have the figure top of mind. I'm looking at my team here to see if they can get me that. But we have delays on the Scania side, which is supposed to be the front-runner here in terms of battery electric vehicles. We have had challenges getting the cell supply from Northvolt coming up as expected. But the order intake that you do have on the Scania side, which is a bit above 600 trucks is the entire order intake for electric trucks of the group. There is no other brands. MAN is starting, as I said, this month to open up. So we have -- I'm here in Munich today actually and the sales training ongoing for the battery electric truck range. But that will not be delivered in this year, but towards the end of next year. So that's the 650 trucks. So on top of that, we have around about 1,000 preorders of electric trucks based on the new truck model that we will start to deliver here in November with the Northvolt cells then hopefully coming to us now according to the final agreement. On top of that, you have 500-something electric buses. The majority of that is MAN, heavy buses. And then you have a small proportion of light, medium, so 12- or 14-tonne trucks from Volkswagen Truck & Bus.I think overall, as I said, it's not satisfactory. We see too many hurdles in the customer base to go for electric vehicles. They are more expensive, quite much more expensive 2 to 3x. The charging infrastructure is not there. The electricity prices have been very volatile. And here, our customers require stability. So yes, I hope and I continue to think we're at the beginning of an S curve, where we will see in the coming 2 years, a sharp increase, up towards 10% of our total sales. The product is now here. The product is performing, but it's a whole system that we are changing. It's not just the truck that needs to be in place.So that was -- I hope that answered your question, Erik, on the electric, yes. I hand over to Michael for your follow-up question on the cash flow.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Yes. So let me start with, let's say, the situation in 2023, and then I will end with to say a trend because you asked for 2024 and then I come to 2024. So when we look at this year, then during the first 9 months, about EUR 1.4 billion cash was tied up in working capital of TRATON Operations. And when we look at this on the quarterly level, then the working capital increased by about EUR 200 million in the third and by about EUR 600 million in both the first and the second quarter. Of course, this was largely due to the higher inventories which is obvious a result of the strong increase of the production volumes that we mentioned before, but also that was linked to the ongoing outbound logistics shortages. At the same time, we recorded relatively minor movements in trade receivables and accounts payable compared to the year-end 2022.So, as I said at the beginning, and I think this is important here to mention that when we look at the cash conversion that this rate has been improving quarter-over-quarter in 2023. And based on this trend, I think it's clear we want to continue that trend also when we look at 2024. And I think that we can expect an easier in the logistics and the outbound logistics constraints that we've seen this year. So, I would say, I'm slightly positive and optimistic that we will see a positive development here regarding our working capital in 2024 and that the trend with the increasing rate of the cash conversion rate continues.I stop here.

[Thomas Paschen, executive]

Great. Thank you very much. There are no further questions and no questions from the media. So I would say this concludes our 9 months results conference. As always, of course, please reach out to the team in case of further questions. Thank you for joining us today. We wish you all a nice remaining day, and goodbye, and see you next time, and hear you. Bye-bye.

[Christian Levin, executive]

Bye. Thank you.

[Michael Jackstein, executive]

Bye-bye.