Warehouses de Pauw NV
XBRU:WDP
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This meeting is being recorded and transcribed. You've been muted.
Good afternoon, everybody. [Operator Instructions] But first, now we'll start with the presentation, but don't hesitate to put all your questions in the chat box. Good afternoon or good morning, everybody. Vaccinated or not, we all hope you are doing well and that you stay healthy and stay safe until the end of this pandemic. But in the meantime, I think we made the perfect start of the second part of our growth plan. We realized EUR 100 million of new investments with -- and we could keep our occupancy rate at a very high level, even a little bit higher, of 99%. And we realized an EPS of EUR 0.24 or higher by 8% year-on-year.So I think this is what we promised in the beginning of the year. This is what we had to do, and we did it. So indeed by having all this, we can say that we have a very solid start with -- and the basis and the heart in our existing portfolio with new investments and having the return we wanted.And this makes that we are indeed today at EUR 1.1 billion of new investments into our new growth plan, and indeed, the same regions and the same kind of business. So continuing what we did before on our way to EUR 6 billion and -- on our way to a portfolio of EUR 6 billion, and an earnings per share level of at least EUR 1.25. Driven by the industry drivers, I think we went in detail on all those drivers with our annual results, so we won't repeat it. But indeed the same industry drivers are all still there and helps us to grow further together with our clients. And this counts also for our ESG journey. It's an ongoing journey where, as mentioned also at the year results. We are concentrating now on our climate action plan in order to be able to get the goals we have foreseen on the level of the corporate ratings and the indexes. If we then go into detail of our activity report, I can advise you our virtual property tour amongst all those new projects by looking and clicking to all of the movies, which are included in our presentation and in the press release. And indeed, these are much more than movies, these are real projects. Also up the execution level, it was an normal quarters with around -- a little bit less than EUR 100 million of projects executed will start contributing to our results as from now. And indeed I think the biggest points are our projects in execution. It's a very nice and big pipeline of 850,000 square meters of building. And there, I would say it is indeed growing together with our existing clients on existing land bank are in the existing portfolio. So for me, this is internal growth and not external growth, internal thanks to our land bank and our clients.And just to show you one example of how we work and we think about our projects, the biggest projects of Q1 was The Bay in Breda. But it was a site who was already a time, I think for almost more than 1 year, almost 2 years within our land bank, but it was a big piece of land near our offices in Breda. And I think by sitting together with the Dutch team, we said, how can we make there the perfect product for this region for the Breda region. And so we came with a total concept and based on real needs in the region for our clients. And so together with our marketing, we made that movie you can find it on the page before.And so once this project -- this product was made some months later, we already had a first client, an existing client. Brand Masters, who was already an active client in Breda with 10,000 square meters, but they wanted to double their surface. And so they came to us and they said, "Can you help us? We want to double." And we could move them to that region, an so getting this project started. In the meantime, further negotiations are running. And so we will be able to fill it up in the next period. But so we are really starting from the land bank, thinking what our clients needs depending on the region. So -- but in global -- I won't go through them all. You can always if you have specific questions ask them. But in globally, let's say, well spread amongst the regions, amongst the kind of projects and more than 850,000 square meters of running projects. And important, above this we still have a very nice land bank. And there, I think it's not only the land bank, but it's the evolution of the land bank and the potential -- the dynamics, the dynamics of this chart are very important. And indeed it's a growing land bank, and we will even grow the land bank up to EUR 150 million, which gives us indeed above the existing projects a very nice potential for further growth. And if -- there you can see, if you want you can look to those different movies. And there you see for Germany, what are the possibilities on our land bank and also on the land bank near Bucharest. You can see already what we realized there, so a fine property tour.And if we then go to the portfolio, indeed there the portfolio has grown further. We realized now and we reached EUR 5 billion portfolio in our existing regions. And there was a small further yield compression. And indeed now at the fair value, the value per square meter is just a little bit below EUR 800.On the basics of our portfolio, nothing changed. It was indeed, it's still a very high qualitative portfolio, very well rented with a very high occupancy rate, of which this year we have to relet 10% of the portfolio, let's say, a normal year. And there 2/3 are already re-leased. And there indeed, our clients stayed with us for more than 90%. So before we go to the figures and the impact of all this evolution, I would say as an operational conclusion, we see healthy activities in our existing portfolio and on the development demand driven by clients. And so we can look forward with a lot of confidence so that we can grow further and grow with another EUR 1 billion towards the EUR 6 billion portfolio, together with our clients and with the possibilities in our land bank. So I think this is the basis of it. And so I would give the word to Mick in order to explain a little bit more about the figures.
Thank you, Joost. And indeed I can confirm that what Joost mentioned on the operational side has translated into the numbers. Because when we look at our results from core activities or EPRA earnings, then in terms of rental income evolution, we show a 13% year-on-year increase, which is for 1.8% composed of like-for-like rental growth. That is mainly due to indexation for 2/3, 1.2%, and the remainder, 0.6%, is due to a rise in the occupancy rate. Now note that with almost full occupancy right now, this figure will soon start -- the like-for-like figure will soon start to revert, of course, towards the actual indexation of the rental contract. The remainder is driven by external growth as we have this steady stream already for a couple of years now of around 100,000 square meters per quarter, mainly coming from The Netherlands and Romania.In terms of EPRA earnings, these are, let's say, perfectly in line with our communicated budget or guidance for 2021. There 2 noteworthy items I would like to share with you. First, the results are as communicated extensively during the full year results, drafted as if we do not longer have the Dutch FB REIT status or FDI status in The Netherlands just for cautiousness reasons. It's a 1 million tax impact per quarter in the EPRA earnings. And in the line of the minority, there for WDP Romania, we realized a capital increase due to the further strong growth of that entity. And as a result of that, we now own 85% of instead of 80%. So that means that we now deduct 15% as a minority for WDP Romania as opposed to 20% until the end of last year.So all in all for EPRA earnings, that's on a per share basis, plus 8%. So that's including already the part of the ABB because it's started -- the ABB of EUR 200 million was realized early February. So that counts for 2 months, so up plus 8% for the quarter, EUR 0.24. And that's on EPRA earnings that's perfectly in sync with our budget. And on second, on portfolio results, you can see the revaluations of over EUR 100 million, which is partly driven by uplifts on development completions. But the most impact this quarter, around 80%, 85% comes from a 10 bps yield shift or 2% revaluation in the standing portfolio, mainly in The Netherlands due to the continued strength of the investment market.So that's on the results. And then when we move to the balance sheet, they're strengthened, of course, after the ABB in February with very solid metrics. What is important to point out here are the receivables, of course. There, we continue to see a very good rent collection, very good payment behavior amongst our clients. The same pattern, actually a good regular pattern. 98% of the rents were collected for Q1, and with only still only EUR 500,000 outstanding related to COVID-induced payment rescheduling we granted last year, we expect to recover that shortly. And for April for the monthly rent, or for Q2 for the quarterly rent, we have now received already 85%. So that's a confirmation that everything there is proceeding well. And then of course, when we look at the liabilities side and balance sheet metrics, there continue to be a strong net investment, but also to be -- continue to have a strong balance sheet and above all, a liquid balance sheet. Because when moving to the next slide, take a look at the actual metrics, LTV at 40%, and more important adjusted net debt to EBITDA around 7.5, at the lower end of our 8% -- 8x target, which we believe screens very well in a wider European context. But here, we will continue to stick to our principle of matching the growth with simultaneous debt and equity issuance on a 50-50 basis. And as I mentioned liquidity, very important, at EUR 850 million of undrawn credit facilities, which allows us to comfortably execute all our committed capital expenditure plus debt maturities at least until the end of '22, next year. And that is excluding any refinancing done or excluding the around EUR 100 million impact per year of retained earnings and stock dividends. So here, the baseline is balance sheet -- a well-funded balance sheet and ready for further growth. Then next -- on the next slide on the financing. In terms of debt financing, we're now at an average cost of 2.1%, which will decline further towards of 1.8%, both organically and mechanically. As -- the thing is that last year, we raised EUR 700 million in 2020 at 1.1% average all-in cost. And it is only, of course, when that is fully put to work when you will notice that in our cost of funding. And also, our hedge ratio is a bit higher now at 96% after the ABB, of course. And we are well covered in terms of any potential interest rate hike or volatility. Also on the debt maturities, well spread over the next 10 years. Now you can see that there is still EUR 175 million of long-term debt to be refinanced or -- let's say in '21 or still open. That is mainly related to the retail bond, which -- EUR 125 million, which will mature in June, and some smaller loans. And we will all refinance them, and we will be happy to do so because the bond is still running at a 3.4% cost. Then on the next slide, as for the outlook -- yes, as far as the outlook is concerned, I think we've pretty much set all of that. And what we can do is today having made a good start of the year, and we are perfectly on track to meet this guidance for 2021. And so I think -- and that's also based on -- that is always very important, based on solid operational and financial KPIs.That's my part on financing and outlook. And I'll now pass over to Joost for any concluding remarks or start the Q&A.
We'll start Q&A first before concluding. And then we will open the chat.
Okay. I'm just opening the chat.
Some hands raised already as well. Some hands have been raised too.
We'll just start at the beginning.
No question.
I don't see -- for the moment, I don't see any questions in the chat. [Operator Instructions] I see..
We have some hands raised as well.
Yes. And indeed some hands raised as well. I see Francesca from ING. Could you please tell us how recent negotiations are performing beyond the pure -- it's difficult to read -- beyond the pure discussion on rent levels? Is there any new trend that you see emerging talking to tenants in terms of duration, the dimension needs, physical criteria and any specific sustainable themes or [indiscernible]? Do we see any, let's say, specific questions? Are things changing? Not really. Let's say, it's steady going forward, of course. I would say there is still a healthy demand. We see healthy demand for existing buildings, for new buildings, for redevelopment. So we see a very broad and a big variety in all our questions, but no specific new trends. The trends are still there, as discussed before. If I would say one thing, that is that I would not say for the first time that -- but that's some more times there is a little bit more questions about sustainability and about ESG and climate action plan I would say for the first time with other clients.Before the questions were only there from the investors. And now we see that for the first time, we have some sustainability questions in general from our clients. This is what you could see something new coming up. But that's it. No. And then your -- yes. So for the rest everything, renegotiations are performing well. We have already done 2/3 of the renegotiations of this year. And of those, most of that status are relet them at, I would say, the same levels. So indeed there, we feel comfortable and everything is going into the good direction. Francesca, I hope this answers your question.Then the next question is coming from Pieter Runneboom. We witnessed a growing number of new developments in Romania from WDP, but also other companies. Is there another market demand for all this new supply?Well, Pieter, there we can say that we -- let's say, we buy lands on risk. And we go for general permits for the whole industry zone. But we wait until client demand. And we don't build speculative not in Romania, but also not here. And let's say, we do it just here if it's technically better or we have just rented partially a building, and it's technically and more efficient to build the whole building, then we will do it. But we don't aim for any speculative development because we think we don't need it. And you still can develop and build soon enough so that it's not needed, let's say, to do any speculative demand. And we don't lose any client by such demand and indeed specifically for Romania, there is another company doing -- who has always had the philosophy of doing speculative developments, but they are very concentrate on one location, on the biggest location where he is active on the West of Bucharest. But that is indeed the market is still a very good, healthy market, as I mentioned in the beginning. [ Michael Slater ]. What can you say about the rent levels versus prior passing on the -- first prior on the 2/3 expiring in '21 leases that had been concluded?" I think there, Mick, we can say that...
Technically, at the same rents, that's virtually all at the same rents. And that's why also in the like-for-like growth decomposition, I did not give any impact from renegotiations because it was 0%. And you could say that in the past until 2 years ago, we needed to give back, on aggregate, half of the inflation of the indexation of the contracts. And now since 2 years and what we foresee from the existing business plan is still that we just capture the indexation of the contracts.However, what could be a scenario, and -- but we are still cautious in that in advocating market rental growth, a scenario that could unfold is that you now have, let's say, a contractual rent and market rents that are very close to that. And that due to the growing scarcity of land that you see a growing discrepancy between the ERV and the contractual rents, and when that would be material enough that you could start to capture that. But note that also the existing leases are there for at least 7 years, so it would be done for another business plan. And also know that in general, yes there is scarcity of land, growing scarcity but still you wouldn't normally expect in a normal cycle. But what is normal to expect that rental prices should go up with land prices going up so fast. But on the other hand, that is also being downplayed right now, compensated by the fact that for new developments, yields are so low. So that downplays or compensates that effect to a certain extent.
Yes. Francesca from ING, again. Few questions on Romania. Would love to have a general update on this market and what are you experiencing here lately? What do you think will be the main reason for a yield compression? And do you see any market entrants? A lot of questions. Would you be on a long-term base, eventually focused to enter the new Eastern Europe market?Well, Francesca, I think there we can say that the market has not changed. There are no new players in the market today. I think just for the investor market, it's changed because one of our colleagues entered [ VGP ] with a good colleague in Romania as from the beginning, entered the investment market. But so there is a change on the investment market, but there is no change in the real world. In Romania, he is there already a long time.And also, VGP is there, a small spin -- a small player already long term. And there are 6, 7 logistic players like us active in Romania. It's a good market. It's a healthy market. And indeed the market is growing since the country is growing. And we see indeed more -- in general a little bit more competition coming for companies who are, let's say, investing more of their business, a bigger part of their business into Romania. Reason for yield compression, it would be...
That would be to keep transactional evidence. Because now the market is in effect a bit divided between a couple of large players, developers but also end investors. So there is afterwards no liquidity in the market because nothing changes, no product changes hands. Once there would be, and there would -- once something would come to the market, there would be substantial investment, investor interest. But then there needs to be something on the market. And we think that for us to see yield compression in that market, you would need to have, let's say, an established start of more market evidence by -- an established investment market, which is not there today.
It's a development market, and indeed development yields came down a little bit. But that you don't see in any figures of growth. And therefore, we need an investment market and a more liquid investment market. Today, everyone is keeping all his developments. And then would you be also thinking to another Eastern European market? Well, at the moment, we said that for this plan, we don't need any new country. Let me stay with our 3 platforms, in The Netherlands, Belgium, Romania; or 2 markets, the Benelux, north of France [indiscernible] and Romania. So today we are not looking to any other markets. But I'd say the questions are open and we have not the answers yet that will be done. For next growth plan, what will we do? I would say we just updated this plan, so we have still over the time before we answer that question.And then I see questions from Frederic Renard. I have 3 questions. Do you expect some normalization in the occupancy rate by the end of the year, additional vacancies?Well, I think there you want to say, Frederic, do see clients during the year. And that our very high, which is -- which should be a normal action there because we are late cyclical in the beginning of the cycle -- at the beginning of the crisis, as the warehouses are getting full because everybody ordered too many goods and they have to be stored, at least temporarily in warehouses. And then by the end of the crisis, those warehouses will be empty again. But there -- yes, for the moment there we have to say, Mick, that nothing -- we have had, let's say, 3 small issues. But 2 of them have been sold at the same levels. And for another one, we have to, let's say, diminish the surface from 10,000 to 5,000 square meters. So for the moment, we don't see it. And indeed if there is something empty or something coming empty into the portfolio, we have directly different negotiations with new clients. So there -- and like I mentioned, the activity stays very healthy.Next question is, Do you have an estimation of the rental reversion in the portfolio today?
I think what we can say today is that we are rented -- our portfolio is rented at the lower end of what you could call a fair market bracket. So it's difficult to put a number on that, but at the lower end of the market is we have always preferred not to have high contractual or facial rents and low economic rents. No, we don't give any incentive. It's just the rent is the rent, and it's -- we always prefer a lower rent. But it's difficult to argue today that there is already a strong reversionary potential for the reasons I just came to mention. However, a scenario could be that it starts to build up in the next couple of years. then in the next business plan and business cycle, we could capture that. But it's, let's say, a bit too early to start to build a plan on that.
Next question from Frederic. And do you expect the pace of revaluation to continue -- the level of revaluation continue going forward? And can you explain why there has been no revaluation in Romania that was flattish, even slightly negative?Well, Frederic, I think we told the reason of Romania. And we need investors, buyers, not only developers. So we are waiting for the investment market. The value stays the same in Romania.And concerning revaluation, it's difficult to speak on behalf of other valuators. But we can just say one thing that on average, the gross yield in our portfolio is now 6%. And, let's say, in Western Europe, the top yields are now going even below 3.5%. So they are, let's say, in between 3 and 4 or say in between 3% and 5%, and we are on 6%. So I think there is still place for revaluation that you have to add to our valuators.Yes. [indiscernible]. Could you please share your observations in relation to the land acquisition prices of global markets where you operate, timing between the start of negotiation and conclusion?Observations concerning land and the duration. I would say, our land acquisition stayed difficult. Land is becoming scarce everywhere. Even in Romania, it's not easy to get new big pieces of land which are, let's say, connected to the roads and connected to water, gas and electricity. So that stays difficult. There you need not to put a lot of attention to get new land. And it does mean, of course, that land prices are getting up. And indeed the as the time between start of negotiation and conclusion, timing of developments take longer, takes a little bit longer than before. First of all, most of the time, getting permits takes longer and is more difficult today. And projects are more complex. Let's say, a client is asking more than just an empty warehouse, the specifications, the updations, all the automation in the buildings, so there is much more demand for what we call as is and above-standard tenant improvements. So this takes longer. And so I think in general you can say that negotiations are taking longer than some years ago.I think there are no questions further in the chat box. But that I just will look who raised their hands further and it was Frederic or Niko. Niko, probably you have more questions in the chat box. So I think you still have your question.
Yes. No, I can go ahead.
Okay. Sorry. So excuse me.
Yes. So I have follow-on questions. I mean what do you see in the leasing market at the moment has an impact from the speculative developments of some of your industry peers, particularly with the other lesser ones, like [indiscernible], for example? Is this something that you see reflected in the negotiations that you do with the potential tenants? Or any comments there?
So this is still a very healthy leasing market. Yes, there are some speculative developments in mostly in the Netherlands. And there so -- and let's say, a lot of those projects are also projects on paper, and they are not really constructed or starting construction. We see a lot of speculative development, but never really started, just on paper and speculative on paper. So we don't feel or it's not giving any problem for us because we have -- basically, we can adopt them, we can make the right building on the right -- really, on the right location with the right measures with the right specifications.So we don't -- for us, for the moment, it does not give any problem, and they are on specific locations. It's not everywhere. For example, in Romania, yes, you have there speculative development of CTP, but that is also very concentrated on Bucharest. So it's not giving problems for us for the moment.
Okay. Much appreciate it. As your second question, you obviously already referred to the minority stake from the [indiscernible] that sell you to, let's say, 15% in the case of the Romanian entity. Can we expect going forward that it will further reduce its ownership of the Romanian vehicle?
No. I think for the time being it will stay stable. Of course, it will always depend -- I will mention that for the time being, it should remain stable. But obviously it will depend on how fast we grow. And then he will also benefit from that because he is fully aligned and he did not sell. It's for a private person. We have a balance sheet of EUR 5 billion. He has another balance sheet with its private fortune. He is still committed, engaged and aligned with us. It was simply to fund the further growth of the operations in Romania, and he kept his stake in absolute terms. And we provided further capital to support the growth in the business plan for WDP Romania. Nothing more than that. That's just something technical.
Also it's not a dividend model. So we have no [indiscernible] state and the company. And yes, because he has no liquidity to follow because it was only for the capital increase. But let's say for the future, I think in the model, the asset will sustain. But of course if we grow further and other capital increases are needed at that moment, that could be that he can sell.
For the time being, it remained stable, but for -- let's say, it depends on the further growth, of course, and especially the speed of the growth in Romania. But he is fully aligned. And all the cash flow that is generated by this entity, so the EPRA earnings, his and ours, are reinvested in the company, in the growth.
Yes. So that was effectively what I was referring to anyways that if there would be further equity raises that he wouldn't, let's say, participate. But yes, that's very clear.
He will reinvest. He will for sure already reinvest the automatic equity increase that is each year by reinvesting full EPRA earnings.
Okay. I think I see another question in the chat box. I'm going to the chat box now. Frederic Renard has 2 other questions. Can you shed light whether or not municipalities are stricter in granting permits? From ESG angle, what is your view on greenfield activities? Obviously -- what's happening here? Obviously, your assets are more energy-friendly, but you still need a lot of CO2 to erect the building. Any view in the future on how you can try to lower that carbon footprint? Possibly wait for EMG road map later this year to have the answer. I think there are more than 2 questions, Frederic. But no problem. Our municipality is more strict with formats. They're always very difficult, let's say, depending on the region. They are more strict. But I would say not from an ESG point of view. From, let's say, it's more a problem of private people fighting against activities around their home and not in my backyard, than just from, you don't get a permit because of ESG.There are problems in getting a permit, for example, with nitrogen rules in The Netherlands, but that general law in The Netherlands and not specific law, but the municipality has nothing to do with that. So it's not driven by municipalities. But in general of course, the legislative frame around new buildings is getting more and more difficult. And your buildings need to be better, need to be better isolated a lot more questions in the form the sustainability in general low of buildings are indeed eco-friendly. But indeed erecting a building as CO2 still asks a lot of CO2. But there also, our suppliers are working on that. And indeed that's one of the points we are working and that we will capture in our Climate Action Plan. And so we are looking into details and the whole life cycle of our buildings. So indeed I think that's clear answer on that. Then I think there are no further questions.
Can you hear me, sorry?
Yes. Yes.
Yes, it's [ Marcus ] from Bank of America. I just have a quick question on the asset revaluation. If I'm right, it's around 2% in Q1. What do we expect for Q2 or H1?
That will be up to the valuers, I think. We think the trend is there. You know the discrepancy between our fair value of the portfolio, the yields we publish and market yields as Joost just came to explain. And ultimately how fast and how strong they reflect it will be -- that's the job of the valuators.
Yes. And they go step by step that's what we know and what we have seen in the past. But let's hope that they keep stepping forward.
Yes. Normally, if I take the same assumption from Q1 in Q2, it's a big acceleration compared to the past.
No. There has also been a big acceleration in the market. Because when the market goes from between 4% to 5% and then below -- to below 4%, that's another big step in the market. And we are only talking about 10 bps in our existing portfolio. But I'd say we can say as much as we want about that. It's up to the valuators to reflect that...
Then Mick is that this year, quarter 1 was a small quarter in the finalization of products. And that more of the new projects will be, let's say, finalized, and that is an important moment for evaluator. And that's when you really -- the project is there, delivered then we make this final call. And we have more...
There will be more, more impact in the next quarters, more impact from development completions. But you are right that for a typical Q1 revaluation, for a desktop review, it was a bit stronger. But they said, we will do it because the market has evolved as well.
But it's more than a normal year.
Yes.
And driven by developments. Okay then next, Niko.
Yes. Sorry, I was we capable to ask my questions for the block. But how are things going in Germany? Are you there on schedule?
Well, yes, we could finally buy the land after the cleaning and the cleaning of the bombs of the World War II, who were still there. So everything is cleaned now. We were able to buy really the land. And we started immediately -- we contracted a contractor. And so we started the work now. So let's say, and we planted our flag, and it's not needed. And you say we don't need speculative development. And then in Germany, you do it. Okay, yes, we do it, only for 20,000 square meters. But that is because we have to show in a new country that you are really a player, that you mean it. So -- and we had to plant our flag and show that we really should start and want to be a real player in that market. And so there we start speculatively. And now, let's say once we have started, we can really start speaking with the brokers and go forward and make success of it.
Okay. And then a second question, can you give me more light on the new tenants in the sectors that are they occupied, e-commerce like industry?
New ones or the new project, [ Marc ]?
New ones but maybe also new tenants for buildings [indiscernible]?
Very broad. Yes, I think of course, there's the 2 sectors which were very active already last year. It's the food industry and the pharma industry. So they stayed very active. Besides this also general logistics and indeed also of course the e-commerce, more in general, the omnichannel players...
Pent-up demand from parcel companies for e-commerce, all kinds of suppliers to the e-commerce industry, and also strong healthy companies that are investing massively in omnichannel.
Any other questions? The room is free. No hands up any more. I'm looking if there is still somebody, nobody is raising his hands. So then I don't think I will look to the chat box too, then I don't think there is any further questions. So we would ask them for the long time, no questions, everything clear. Then I would thank you all for attending this call. It was detail, the start of the year, Q1. And let's say, we will continue working together with our clients.And at the latest, we come back somewhere in summer for half year results. Hopefully at that moment that the world is already any further with vaccination. But we all stay healthy, and we hope that you all stay healthy and that we can see each other somewhere in the future physically again. Thank you all, and see you next time.
Thank you. Bye.
Thank you.