Orange Belgium SA

XBRU:OBEL

Earnings Call Transcript 2020-Q4

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Orange Belgium Full Year Results 2020. [Operator Instructions] I would like now to hand the call over to Koen Van Mol, Head of IR. Sir, please go ahead.

[Koen Van Mol, Investor Relations Officer]

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. My name is Koen Van Mol. I am Head of Investor Relations at Orange Belgium. I would like to welcome you to the presentation of the results of the fourth quarter and full year of 2020.Here with me are Xavier Pichon, our CEO; and Arnaud Castille, our CFO. You should all have received our financial communication this morning. The information is also available on our corporate website, together with all other relevant documents related to these results. A Q&A session will follow right after and Xavier's and Arnaud's interventions, which will give you the opportunity to ask additional questions that you may have.Now I am pleased to leave the floor to Xavier.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you, Koen. Welcome, ladies and gentlemen. I am pleased and honored to co-present you this full year 2020 results. This quarter has had a strong commercial and financial results despite the COVID-19 crisis. Our 2020 guidance has been achieved, and as it was announced to the market.So please, if we go to page 5 of the deck. So on this slide, you can see that the measures we -- that have been taken following the COVID-19 impact, including free data to our customers and mandatory teleworking to our team members. Orange Belgium strongly believes that we're part of the societal commitments to help fighting the COVID-19 pandemic.The main impact towards our business are summarized in Slide 6, you can see them. On top of that, our commercial performance was negatively impacted with the lower acquisition of mobile and convergence customers as well as a decrease in handset sales in combination with the decrease in SMS traffic as well as in visitor and customer roaming. This resulted in a decrease in revenue in comparison to last year. As you can see, this one has been significant, EUR 38.3 million. But the good thing is these revenues are mainly low margin. It explains the rough -- not full negative -- not full impact on the EBITDA, and this one has been mitigated.On Slide 7 -- sorry, 8, so our Go Plus portfolio has been, again, doing very well during this quarter. In addition, we improved our offers that also attracted more customers. The increase of data to 8 gigabyte Go Plus offered together with a discount when in combination with Love has been a success during the quarter.Slide 9. On top of that, we had our special Go Unlimited edition offer in Slide 9, with a price of EUR 30 per month. And this special edition has been highly welcomed by our customers.Slide 10. During the quarter, we have also launched a naked broadband offer. Orange Belgium answers with this offer to the demand of those people that do not need or want mobile subscription, but still want to enjoy a fast, reliable and unlimited fixed broadband connection with or without TV. With this offer, the customer does not have any obligation and can choose the option that fits the most.From a network perspective -- sorry, please go Page 11. So we've been able also to enter the -- and to continue to enter the IoT market, as we launched some specific smart parking solution within the Brussels, the Bruges city. And then last but not least, we've been able to continue to be responsive in our offers with greener SIM card and also used smartphone that has been put to the market as well.You know that Page 13, we have been very involved in a kind of iconic proof-of-concept on the 5G B2B side in the Port of Antwerp. I think that we've demonstrated a lot of use cases that could be put into the market in the coming quarters or months, of course. We had a terrific venue with that. A lot of companies have been impressed on this. And we had -- we've been reached out by a lot of companies, not only in Antwerp or in the Port of Antwerp, but also nationwide with companies maybe having some potential issues in their business so far and wanted to improve the way they are managing their activity. So it's a good thing for the future. And I think we've made a good step on this.Page 14, you know that we've selected Nokia from a network perspective. We have selected this vendor for our future mobile radio network. Nokia will progressively renew our existing technologies out of 2G, 3G and 4G. And of course, we'll roll out 5G, with the purpose to be completely upgraded by 2023. This agreement does not change the expected benefits nor the expected implementation cost following the network sharing agreement with Proximus. This upgrade would result in a state-of-the-art and future-proof mobile network to the benefit and the full benefit of our customers. It will also help Orange Belgium to achieve its CO2 reduction objectives, thanks to the significantly increased energy efficiency of this kind of 5G infrastructure.Please move Page 15, as a kind of ramp-up in a nutshell. So the key achievement on the fourth -- of the fourth quarter of 2020 can be seen and found in this slide. Our positioning contributed to a solid commercial results in 2020. We've been able to increase our mobile customer base by 2.4%, reaching about 2.6 million customers. The last quarter of 2020, we added 22,000 new cable customers, reaching them 326,000 customers, an increase of 26.3% on a year-to-year basis, no more than a feat.Our postpaid mobile base is now convergent with 20.3%. These results had a decrease by 7.2% in total revenue to EUR 343 million, with the service revenue, which is a good thing, of course, the main important one grows by 3% to roughly EUR 230 million. The decrease in revenues is mainly following the decrease in low-margin activities, such as SMS and handset sales due to pandemic. Because of the increase in service revenue and management of forecast, we have been able to increase our EBITDAaL by roughly 8% to 88 -- EUR 85.9 million.Slide 16. We reached our 2020 guidance as you've seen this morning. With this decrease on the revenue side, total revenue by 3.5%, while our service revenue increased by 3.1% over the year. We foresaw a slight decrease versus 29% on revenues. The increase in service revenues in combination with our transformation program Bold Inside have resulted to our EBITDAaL reached EUR 323 million, lending inside the range of EUR 310 million by EUR 330 million. Our eCapEx contracted slightly by 1.4%, in line with our guidance.Slide 18, Arnaud. I let you the floor.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Now let's move on to our operational results. So in Slide 18, you will find the results for our cable offers. The last quarter of 2020, we acquired 22,000 new cable customers, which are volumes comparable before the pandemic. With 326,000 customers, we have 26.3% more than at the end of 2019. Today, 20.3% of our total postpaid mobile base is convergent in comparison to 15.9% and on 2019.So now Slide 19 shows you the steady growth of the mobile postpaid customer base with 26,000 net adds over the last quarter, the main component being the net adds coming from convergent customers, of course.Now on Slide 22, we indicate both a decrease in our convergent and mobile ARPO. Our convergent ARPO decreased because our Love Duo represents already more than 20% of the customer base. Also the discounts on mobile tariff plans in convergent influenced the convergent ARPO. The mobile-only postpaid ARPO declined by 3.1% to EUR 19.8 due to the decrease in out-of-bundle revenues from roaming and mobile data, partially offset by migrating customers to higher tariff plans in the new Go portfolio.That being said, I continue with the Slide 31 -- or 29, excuse me, 27. So like Xavier already mentioned, our financial results are in line with the guidance we have provided for year 2020, with revenues of EUR 1.3149 billion. We decreased by 3.5% on a comparable basis. But our retail service revenues increased by 3.1%. The EBITDAaL has reached EUR 323 million, which is an increase of 8.1% in comparison to 2019.Now let's go a little bit further into detail in Slide 31. Yes, this one. So you see the waterfall of the revenues for Q4 2020. The decrease in our mobile service revenues due to lower ARPO and slight decrease in customer base were largely compensated by the increase of our convergent service revenues, increasing our retail service revenue by EUR 6.7 million. Our wholesale revenues decreased mainly because of decrease in SMS and roaming traffic following the COVID-19 measures. They were partially compensated by the MVNO revenues. Equipment sales revenues also decreased significantly because of the limited capacity in the shops due to the COVID-19 measures. This resulted in a decrease of the total revenue by 7.2% in comparison to Q4 2019.Next slide, 32. We had the waterfall of our EBITDAaL. The strong performance of our EBITDAaL was driven by higher retail service revenues increased by EUR 6.7 million. Orange Belgium benefited from its transformation plan initiated in 2019 to improve its operational model. Profitability has improved and EBITDA grew by 7.9% year-on-year.Slide 33. It's our CapEx. So the increase by 16.1% for the quarter as a catch-up has done in comparison to last year. Over the year, there was a slight decrease in eCapEx by 1.4% to EUR 177.7 million. Our net debt amounted to EUR 144.9 million, so gearing remains low with net debt-to-EBITDA 0.5x.So let's go to slide 36. Following the results that we have achieved in 2020, the Board of Directors of Orange Belgium has decided to propose another ordinary dividend for the financial year 2020 of EUR 0.5 per share.Now looking forward in slide 38. In terms of guidance, we expect a low single-digit revenue growth in 2021, taking into account further uptake on our postpaid and convergent customer base. We target an EBITDAaL between a EUR 320 million and EUR 340 million. In addition, total eCapEx is expected to be between EUR 200 million and EUR 220 million.With this, I conclude the presentation. Operator, may I ask you to now open the call for the Q&A session. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question from David Vagman from ING.

[David Vagman, Research Analyst]

So maybe first on the guidance. So the end of the guidance would imply a slight drop in EBITDAaL this year. Could you flag us maybe the risks, the headwinds that you have in mind so concerning the low end of the guidance range? And now second question. I know it's a sensitive topic, but it's a hot topic nonetheless on tower monetization. So what is your view here? So in 2 months' time, we have the auction process of VOO. So you might want to invest in the VOO network. So would you consider selling a stake in MWings to finance these investments, knowing that Proximus might also be bidding to divest assets to pay for fiber.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Thanks, David. Thanks for your questions. Maybe the first one, so on the guidance side, so of course, you've seen that we do have a range and the low part of the range is also a kind of cautious position we might have within the market. So we've seen a quite intense and commercial -- intense commercial dynamic among the top 3 in Belgium. And of course, we are very cautious on this side for the market commercial dynamic for 2021. There is also some uncertainty on the COVID-19 crisis also in pandemic. We've seen earlier this year some quite lockdown among Europe and all globally. And then, of course, we do have the same issue in Belgium. But also, nevertheless, we are confident in our ability to mitigate this risk with our cost policy, as we've done for years, including 2020. That explains maybe the range with the kind of cautious on the low end of the path of the range.Then on your question number two, today, we are not examining any site sell transactions. You know that we are very, very focused on our RAN sharing first year execution, I guess. You know that we do have a kind of 3-year term just to make sure that our network will be consolidated and aggregate. So we are really focused on this so far.

[David Vagman, Research Analyst]

Okay. And maybe just as a follow-up to my first question and your answer. So you were talking about the commercial aggressiveness. So do you see any stabilization from -- especially from peers like Proximus or VOO? Should we expect more ARPO pressure in 2021? Or any change in commercial net adds, be it for fixed or for mobile, in particular, is in demand also maybe the success of the broadband-only offer?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Actually, we don't know what will be their policy. So we can't, of course, take position on this. What we've seen, as I said, is a quite dynamic market in the term 3. So depending on their policy, we'll see for 2021. Our position is to be cautious on this, of course.

[David Vagman, Research Analyst]

And so far this year, you would say that it basically continues. I mean, the pressure that we've seen in Q3, Q4 last year, so as of February, let's say?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

We can't answer this question, you know that. We can't comment to 2021. So we'll see that in the Q1 results, a couple of months -- in a couple of months.

[David Vagman, Research Analyst]

Arnaud, of course, bonjour.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, David.

[Operator]

The next question from Nicolas Cote-Colisson from HSBC.

[Nicolas Cote-Colisson]

On fiber, you are advertising Orange fiber on your website, and we also have the Proximus plans now fully disclosed. So can you take us through the options regarding fiber? And maybe linked to this, how an acquisition of VOO would fit in from a technology point of view? And maybe a question for Arnaud, maybe for the very last time. If you can take us through the revenue to EBITDA bridge for cable? And maybe tell us which measures can be taken to offset the increasing cable wholesale costs? And whether putting prices up is still an option?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Maybe we shall start with the second one, Nicolas, because we know that you're a big fan of the P&L, of the fixed P&L. So there is a slide very old one on the deck. I can't remember the page, but maybe we'll show -- we will on the screen.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Nicolas, hello? Can you hear me, yes? It is okay?

[Nicolas Cote-Colisson]

Yes.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

So yes, for the last time, Nicolas. I can -- so we continue again to improve this P&L. Till the end of my life, I will improve the cable P&L of Orange Belgium. No, I'm kidding. Just now to sum up maybe at unitary level, now we have an EBITDA of about EUR 6 per customer per month for cable. But we still have some CapEx about, on average, EUR 300 of CapEx, cost of acquisition, if I may. So the total P&L, cable P&L, it's a revenue of EUR 39 million and EBITDAaL -- for Q4 an EBITDAaL of EUR 7 million and a CapEx of EUR 10 million. So it's still a negative cash flow of 3.2 -- minus EUR 3.2 million. So it's an improvement even in terms of cash of EUR 2 million, but still negative.So of course, your question is how can we improve this P&L due to the new regulation, which is not very favorable when the speed increase. So you are right, you are right. So it's, of course, a question of regulation, but maybe Xavier is going to explain the current situation with the different fiber initiatives and so on. So in this context, we think there will be -- would be maybe some possible discussion also on the cable price with the cable operators.And there is this wholesale price, but we continue, not me, but the team will continue to improve the P&L. Again, we can improve this P&L mainly with the churn. I think we can improve the churn on cable. And you know the cost of acquisition is quite significative. So we need to still -- we need to improve again and again. So we can also improve our -- the customer journey of our clients, and at the end, the cost of acquisition of those clients. So I tried to give some work for the future generation after me. So he's not -- but I'll let Xavier tell a little bit more about fiber and a little maybe with cable.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you, Arnaud. And you did a huge job and impressive and tremendous job on this, of course. Maybe just to come back a little on -- Nicolas, on your point. There is something we are trying to manage the better we can, which is to be accurate in terms of financial and cash generation on the fix, but also at the same time, just to make sure that we are going to improve our market share. And now that as it is related to variable CapEx, variable cost, it's hard to do so. That's why we are also in a kind of compromise with this. That's why we are above 0 in terms of EBITDA, but also we do have some leakage in terms of cash. The cash and the CapEx are more related to the commercial net adds, gross adds dynamic. And then it's hard to do so at the same time, but we are, thanks to Arnaud, the team, but also thanks to the regulation as well because we are waiting for some important decision-making coming from the BIPT in the Q1 -- over the Q1 on the SLAs, which are a very important part for us in terms of customer experience but also in terms of cost efficiency.On your first question, so of course, you know the context. You know that we do have now some bodies everywhere in the country in each region. So we are talking about Flanders and also, of course, Brussels and Wallonia where Proximus on its own rollout willingness and then on the north and the south with partners. They have now a project on the table. I think you've noticed that, you've seen that, but we do have also a kind of move where public bodies across the country at federal and regional level are also involved in this topic. I think you've seen what has been said by the Brussels Capital region, but also the 25:36. Of course, fiber is seen as a very important lever to digitize and support the economic development of these regions.And also for Orange Belgium, you noted the cable, and you talked about VOO. But the current cable so HFC cable solution provides in the short-to-medium term sufficient bandwidth to meet the needs of our customers. So today, we provide, I think, you've noted that we are providing a boost option already raising up from 100 megabit to 400 megabits per second. And then, of course, we even have the ability to increase that would -- the market require to do so. So on a medium to longer term, of course, Orange Belgium considered that FTTH will be needed. So there is a necessity for us to prepare this in terms of negotiation with these guys. And as we already said, we are currently evaluating all the scenarios on a regional basis, and -- but at this stage, there is no decision that has been taken yet. So we can't say anything on this. But of course, we are evaluating all the scenarios.

[Nicolas Cote-Colisson]

Okay. I understand. And maybe a very short follow-up. Maybe another question. You cannot completely answer right now. It's just about the Orange offer. I was just wondering what's preventing the Board to take a view after a couple of months now that the intention has been made public. So what would be the concrete steps from now in order to move on?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

So you're talking about the takeover bid, the tender.

[Nicolas Cote-Colisson]

Yes. Yes.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Okay. Koen will answer.

[Koen Van Mol, Investor Relations Officer]

Yes. So what has happened now is that actually, as you have seen, the FSMA has given the official notification of -- that the offer has been done, which means that actually, Orange SA has provided a draft prospectus to the FSMA and FSMA has given that to the Board of Orange Belgium. Now the Board has given its preliminary remarks, which are mainly remarks regarding the contact if the content is correct or not. And it is to draft also what they call a memorandum in reply, which actually contains the opinion of the Board. And that goes back to the FSMA, who will actually need to approve the prospectus, need to approve the memorandum in reply. And from that moment on, it becomes public. But we don't have a specific timing on that, but because that is also dependent on the decision -- of the timing of the FSMA.

[Operator]

Next question from Emmanuel Carlier from Kempen.

[Emmanuel Carlier, Research Analyst]

It's Emmanuel Carlier. Three questions from my side, two related to the guidance on EBITDA adjusted for leases. I'm a bit surprised that you use COVID as the reason to be cautious because I think if we look at the 2020 numbers, we have seen some impact on the revenues, but not really on EBITDAaL. So if you could clarify that maybe. Secondly, also related to the EBITDAaL guidance. I think in previous calls, you mentioned that you continue to expect quite some cost savings also beyond 2020. So could you quantify these because, yes, I really have struggled to understand the low end of your guidance range on EBITDAaL? And then the third question is on the towers. So we have seen plenty of tower deals over recent months. I think they all points to, yes, very high valuation multiples, which is not reflected in the bid price, if you ask me. So I'm wondering how Orange is looking at that? And yes, how is that reflected in the offer price?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Thanks, Emmanuel. So maybe I will take the first and the third 1 and maybe Arnaud the point number two. So on your first point, Emmanuel, so we are mentioning COVID actually because we don't know what will happen during this 2021 year. Of course, like maybe everyone in the world, we put some, I would say, positive clues on the vaccine. But actually, in Europe, there is only a few people that could be vaccinated so far. So we don't know what will happen during the H1, maybe 2021 and also, of course, H2. The point is we do have -- we've had some impact, as you can see, with this EUR 38.3 million.And even if we've said that we've been able to mitigate them, the point is we don't know about the shops, we don't know about the trains in terms of shop visit and commercial, of course, flows within the shop and also -- and depending on the economic situation as a whole. There are some B2B and SME companies that are stopped in their activity so far. So we'll see. So we are intending to be cautious on that side. It explains the low range of the consensus. On the point number three, as we said, and I will...

[Emmanuel Carlier, Research Analyst]

Sorry to interrupt. Yes. No, if I may, come back on that point. So what is the quantitative number that you have taken into account with respect to COVID?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

I think we are not providing...

[Emmanuel Carlier, Research Analyst]

Your guidance.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

No, we are not providing these figures in detail. It's something we've put in the math saying that it's a kind of uncertainty we might have for 2021. And that's it, okay. And that's part of our assumption. And honestly, while I see, I would say, the Q1 and then when I see the lockdown here in Belgium, we are forced to be in a mandatory working from home conditions. Honestly, we haven't had this in mind a couple of months ago, okay? We thought that we would be normally -- not in a new normal -- not in a normal, but maybe the new normal positioning. So now so far, okay, to us, it's a kind of uncertainty, and we've took some assumption on that side in terms of commercial flows, in terms of out-of-bundle ARPU and so on. That's it.On your point number 3, I think we've already answered the question earlier. So what I've said is we are not having any site sell transaction. We are focused on the way we are going to implement the RAN sharing agreement with Proximus, within our JV.

[Emmanuel Carlier, Research Analyst]

Yes. But even then, I think the value of the mobile towers is there and needs to be reflected in the offer, and I have difficulties in seeing this.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. It could be your position. It's not ours so far. And you know that we are in a specific condition within Belgium at Orange with the RAN sharing. So it's a bit different. But as I said, we do not have any project on that side so far.

[Emmanuel Carlier, Research Analyst]

And on the cost savings?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. So on the cost and maybe the answer for the question 2 about EBITDAaL is linked with the question one. I don't want to repeat what Xavier said about the risk of 2021. But yes, on cost, we are going to continue our cost savings. You know the midrange of the guidance, it's still an increase of EBITDAaL. So it's quite also challenging. So in this perspective, we are going to continue the 3 main strategic pillars of our cost efficiency, which are simplification, digitalization and empowerment.So I can just repeat little by little, we improve our nonphysical sell channel, thanks to telesales and web. We continue also to migrate from legacy offer to Go portfolio offer, which is simpler and so cheaper for -- in terms of cost. We are going to continue also -- it's also a question, written question our RAN sharing. So in terms of OpEx for the RAN, we are going to start to have some savings, but it will be mainly in 2022 because we are just at the beginning of this RAN sharing. And so also in terms of agile mode of working, we are going to improve and so on. So yes, we continue -- we are going to continue to save cost but in uncertain period of time, as Xavier explained.And you know, just to complete, a big part of our indirect costs are the labor part. And yes, it's true. Due to the lockdown -- 2 lockdowns in 2020, mainly March, April and May last year, we had some savings, thanks to the partial -- the temporary unemployment, clearly. And we cannot repeat such savings in 2021, fortunately, of course.

[Operator]

Next question from David James from Berenberg.

[David Burns, Analyst]

It's David Burns from Berenberg. First of all, I'd like wish all the best to Arnaud. I have three questions, please. Coming back to towers, and now we're sharing agreement with Proximus. Could you please give us an update on the time line of decommissioning the duplicate tower sites in MWings? And secondly, should you or Proximus wish to dispose your towers as discussed previously, how realistic is such a wish from a legal standpoint, especially if Proximus doesn't sort of take? And on to the third question, it's just, if you could give us an update on the expected kickoff of the VOO sale process. And based on your experience, how long should we expect that to last?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Maybe I'm going to take the 2 first questions. About MWings, so as we explained, there is a delay in the RAN sharing due to the COVID. And remember, last year, the complaint of Telenet, so we are just at the beginning of the consolidation of our network. We explained this consolidation is a one-off of EUR 130 million over 3 years. So it's quite simple. For 2021, it will be between EUR 30 million, EUR 40 million for the decommissioning and for the implementation of the consolidated network. And little saving, but very little savings in terms of OpEx because it will be only the beginning of this consolidation.For the disposal of our towers, yes, legally, but I'm not sure I understand all the questions, but legally, yes, we can dispose of our towers and Proximus also in the current contract between Proximus and Orange. Maybe the third one -- if I didn't understand well your question, you can maybe repeat the second one, if there is another issue in your question?

[David Burns, Analyst]

No, that was correct, that was correct.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

And on your question number three, I think we read the same press articles and papers like you. We do not have any, let's say, clear views or clues on that. So we read that the process might sure -- would start in April. But we do not have any official information. We've not been advised by the Board or shareholders of VOO of an idea. So we're in the same situation like you, no more -- not much.

[David Burns, Analyst]

And just on the last one, based on your experience, I understand it's a very rough estimate, how long should we expect the process to last once it kicks off?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

We read that it should be -- if it starts in April, so we read like you that it should finish -- it should be terminated at the end of the year -- by the end of the year, but we don't know so far.

[Operator]

You next question from Polo Tang from UBS.

[Polo Tang, MD & Head of Telecom Research]

I have two. The first 1 is regarding the potential bid from Orange. Can you remind us if there are any key shareholding threshold to Orange. So for example, would they be able to delist the company if they reach 75%? Or is there anything that they could do at 75% or a 90% shareholding that they cannot do currently? And the second question is really just about the 5G spectrum auction. Can you remind us what the latest timing is for the 5G auction? And how should we think about the risk of a fourth operator entering the market?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

So maybe I'm going to take the first question, Arnaud speaking, and Xavier the second one. But on the first one, yes, there is a threshold for the squeezeout by Orange. So it's a threshold of 95%. So to have a squeezeout Orange needs to reach 95%. Yes, that's it.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. On your point number two, so of course, you've seen that. Well, first, I would like to stress and to point out that the fact that we've just had some announcement coming from a potential fourth entrant in the Belgium market, which is Youfone, the MVNO, which has been maybe not launched, but announced a couple of weeks ago. We observe, of course, as I said, a very high level of commercial intensity among the 2 and 3.And just to answer straight your question. So you've seen that the federal government approved the royal decrease and low proposal that set up the framework for the attribution of the 5G spectrum on all bandwidths. It contains a differentiated condition to attract a fourth entrant full MNO. And then the next phase, which is a very important phase because we've had that in the past in Belgium is a potential approval by the Coordination Committee for 3 regions and federal. Nevertheless, and this is very important to us, we will closely monitor that all conditions won't be considered at discriminatory conditions. So that's the only thing we can comment so far on this spectrum auction.

[Polo Tang, MD & Head of Telecom Research]

So you said about 95% threshold for the squeezeout, but specifically talking about delisting, which is slightly different from a squeezeout. So do you know if there's any specific threshold you reached in order to delist the company? Or is it the same threshold as the squeezeout?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

No, no, no, it's not the same. So yes, Orange in the presentation of an offer, as mentioned, that it will keep the part that it has achieved, if it is 75%, if it is -- and the remaining share will remain listed. If they don't achieve the 95% -- there is some echo. Did you understand? Sorry, is it okay for you. So my point is, yes -- do you hear me? Yes. I think you are not in mute. So I answer again your question. So yes, there is a squeezeout if Orange achieves the 95%. But anyway, if they don't achieve this 95%, Orange will keep the share it bought and the company will remain listed.

[Operator]

Next question from Ulrich Rathe from Jefferies.

[Ulrich Rathe, Senior European Telecommunications Analyst]

My first question is what prevented a stable dividend this year, specifically? The second question is, you made some fairly general comments about these fiber conversations continuing and you're exploring all options. Could you give us just a sense where and Flanders and Wallonia separately, at what stage these talks are. For example, in Flanders, is this still a question of whether there is anything one can do together? Or is it already in a more concrete stage of negotiating terms? Or any color on progress would really be quite helpful in this context? Because sort of the general context that all options are evaluated, it's difficult to sort of to evaluate. And the second question is then -- or a similar question on Wallonia. Is there actually anything to talk about with potential partners when the VOO process is underway, and it's entirely unclear what assets you -- who would own what assets in Wallonia as a result. Is there a way to talk about fiber rollout with potential partners? Or does it simply have to wait until that process closes?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Arnaud, you're taking the first one?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, the explanation of the dividend, it's about the same as a guidance, we want to be cautious in a difficult period of time the reason why and the dividend is stable.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Then on your questions, number two, I guess, and number three, this is exactly what we said. We do have all the options on the table, and then we are still evaluating all the scenarios and what could be the impact for Orange Belgium. I said that we are in a quite good position in our current hold and buying positioning with the cable. We are still needing to improve, as you saw. And as you -- maybe you see for a much longer time, the profitability of our convergent and fixed business within OB. And then we are working on both sides. Of course, the first one is to improve, as we said, the profitability of the cable and then also to prepare the future and the midterm and long-term future in Belgium. And then I can't comment and I can't give you any clue on that. Of course, as I said, and as we said in the past, so we do have all the scenarios and all the options on the table, and we haven't taken any position on that. We have not made any decision on this so far.

[Operator]

Next question from Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank.

[Roshan Vijay Ranjit, Research Analyst]

Two for me, please. Just going to the cable product, please and just looking at the product mix maybe, I would say, you've continue to ramp up the Duo ads and that's leading to this dilution at the ARPU level. I think previously, you've said you kind of expect the mix to be around 1/3 of Duo versus the Triple Pay product? Is that kind of still the assumption? And kind of coupled with that, if I look at some of the trends on the fixed side, we've seen a real continued slowdown of the telephony -- fixed telephony line. So are you seeing customers, more customers take that EUR 10 option and, therefore, be supportive for the cable product?And secondly, just going back to the point on COVID. I'm not sure if you mentioned, maybe I misheard. But what are you factoring in, if anything, for the B2B side? Are you seeing an increased pressure on that segment? You obviously integrated the BKM business earlier this year. Is that seeing some pressure or is that still being fairly resilient?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

I'm going to take the first one about the cable. Yes, we are going to change the mix. And now in terms of gross ads, about 30% of our gross asset is coming from Duo. So yes, little by little. And today, in terms of customer base, 20% of our customer base is Duo. So yes, that has an impact on our ARPU. But be careful, it's not the only impact. The ARPU, it's the mix ARPU of mobile and cable. So there is also the impact of the decrease of roaming and data on the mobile part of the ARPU Duo and Trio because it's always mobile and cable. And on your question on the fixed, no, we don't see so much appetite for the fixed option. There is one, but not so much. So it's -- there is no big impact on our ARPU.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Thanks, Arnaud. On the COVID -- on your COVID question, of course, you're right to say so. We are cautiously monitoring some impact on the B2B side. So far, we haven't had so much impact for the Q4 -- on the Q4 in 2020. But we know that in Belgium, there is some freeze in terms of bankruptcy and so on that maybe will be terminated during the Q1. So we are cautious on that side. On BKM, we had some impact on the -- maybe the trend -- on the business trend in Q4, but also in Q3, that's why we are cautious for 2021, as we said. And you're right to say that it's part of the impact we have monitored.

[Operator]

And last question for the moment registered is Ruben Devos from KBC Securities.

[Ruben Devos, Senior Financial Analyst]

Okay. Two questions left. First one related to Mobile Vikings. Basically, mid-December, we had the update of Proximus, who will take over Mobile Vikings. So I can assume those customers will migrate from Orange Belgium network to Proximus. Just curious how impactful that migration will be? And as of when that will start to kick in? That's the first question.And second one relates to come back on VOO. You've talked a bit about the timing. It would kick off most likely in April and outcome of that in September. We understand the merits for Orange Belgium to look at VOO. And some of these were pointed out by, let's say, prior management. But I was curious whether you, as a new CEO, since mid-2020 still supports some of those arguments that were made on a potential takeover? Or do you maybe think about it somewhat differently at this stage?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

So maybe on your first question, your question number 2 is interesting. Maybe on your first question, Arnaud, for the wholesale impact.

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, it's a little bit less than EUR 20 million for 2021, and we expect to keep all this revenue in 2021 due to the delay in terms of migration to the Proximus network. So we will see. It's not done. There is still some topics before closing. So -- but yes, I think it will be not big impact on 2021.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

And then for your question number two, I think when we said, when I said that all the options are on the table, and we are monitoring and studying all the scenarios, of course, it implies that the VOO scenario is part of this. So there is no change in our view, the change of CEO -- the CEO change has not changed what has been seen in the past within the company. And of course, it's part of game we are playing now within the Belgium and all the regions. So that's it.

[Operator]

We don't have any more question for the moment. [Operator Instructions]

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

I think we are done.

[Operator]

We don't have any more question by phone.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. Koen maybe there is 1 question, I think, on the -- from Benjamin Lyons.

[Koen Van Mol, Investor Relations Officer]

There's a question. Given wholesale pricing backdrop, does it make it more attractive to wholesale Proximus fiber lines and also offer higher speeds to customers? And given the balance sheet, are there any fiber co-investment opportunities or is VOO a more attractive opportunity for Orange Belgium?

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

So maybe on this question, it's related to what we said in terms of FTTH, maybe scenarios, on your question related to the wholesale -- sorry, I can't really catch the question. What about the wholesale Proximus?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

The fiber will -- the price for the fiber in Proximus compared to the cable. But still, the cable is still cheaper than fiber. It is not -- today, FTTH rail offer in the country, it's a very, very, very small of footprint of the fiber. So there is no possible migration from cable to fiber at this stage, definitely.Okay. So there is another question from Polygon about the EUR 130 million set up cost. I think I answered this question at the beginning saying, yes, it will be over the 3 next years, this spend for the installation of our consolidated network.

[Xavier Pichon, Chief Executive Officer]

Okay. I think we're done. Thanks a lot for having us. See you next time. Arnaud?

[Arnaud Marie Julien Castille, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, maybe I would like to conclude, and I would like to say how fantastic my more than 4 years, where we have managed a terrific transfer, I think and achieved very strong results until 2020. And vis-à-vis you, the financial community, it has been sometime challenging. But always very exciting. And thanks to you, I have learned a lot, I can say. Thank you very much for your deep analysis and very fruitful dialogues. And so bye-bye and see you maybe. Thank you.