Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA
WSE:PKN
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Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the conference call regarding Q1 consolidated results of ORLEN Group. My name is Konrad Wlodarczyk. I am IR Director. I will moderate this call.
The presentation that you see on the screen will be delivered by me; Michal Perlik, Executive Director for Finance Management; and [ Oleg Konik ], Chief Specialist in IR department.
As usual, after the presentation, we will open Q&A session. The whole meeting is recorded, and the recording will be available on the web page. During the presentation, please switch off your microphones. So with no further delay, let's kick off.
So let's start from Slide #3, key facts of the last quarter. Just to summarize, more than PLN 110 billion revenues and more than PLN 17 billion EBITDA LIFO. So this shows the magnitude of fully consolidated ORLEN growth. Just a reminder, this is the first quarter where we fully consolidate Grupa LOTOS and PGNiG Group.
What is worth to underline, due to decent results achieved in 2022, management Board recommended historically high dividend, PLN 5.5 per share. Of course, the final decision belongs to the shareholders on AGM that must be held until the end of the June. Of course, if the decision will be taken, we will publish the regulatory announcement.
And as usual, we did a lot of things in the quarter, which are presented on the slide. So just to name them, in the green investments, we selected 7 potential location for SMS, so small module reactors. We started construction of an onshore substation within offshore project on the Baltic Sea. We launched 2 PV farms, and we launched first hydrogen stations in the Czech Republic.
In gas, we started construction of CCGT Grudziadz. We got 4 new concessions and integrated upstream assets in Norway. We realized first LNG delivery to Poland via our own vessel. And we also signed a long-term contract for purchasing LNG from the U.S.
In retail, we rebranded 100 fuel stations that we took over as a remedy [ part ], so in Hungary and Slovakia, and purchased 17 fuel stations in Germany. In terms of cooperation with Saudi Aramco, just for information, 40% of processed crude oil in ORLEN Group comes from Saudi Aramco, and we also analyze the potential petrochemical project in Gdansk. As you see, we also strengthened our logistics position in Q1 in terms of assets in Gdansk and launching fuel pipeline BoronówTrzebinia.
So now let's move to Slide #5, macro environment. Q1 was characterized by high volatility, truly saying. So comparing to the fourth quarter of the last year, macro environment was worse in refining petchem and upstream segments. Model refining margin dropped by 20% quarter-on-quarter due to negative impact of lower diesel cracks that were partially limited by higher cracks on gasoline and HSFO as well as nat gas prices.
Diesel cracks dropped by over 30% quarter-on-quarter due to negative impact of lower diesel cracks and higher supply on the market, including high inventories created due to fear of the product availability after the introduction of the EU import ban on fuels from Russia that's [ entered ] 5th of February.
Gasoline cracks increased 20% quarter-on-quarter. Now that was due to reduced availability of the product on the European market and also due to suspension of fuel production in 2 big French refineries. Differential decreases from quarter-to-quarter as a result of lower Russian crude oil throughput in ORLEN Group. In Poland, we do not process Russian crude oil anymore. At the end of January, contract with Rosneft expired. And in February, contract with Tatneft was terminated due to suspension of crude oil supplies to Plock.
Currently, in ORLEN Group, we are processing around 10% of Russian crude oil, which is delivered only to our Czech refineries due to, let's say, fulfilling the long-term contract with Rosneft valid until mid of 2025.
In case of petchem, macro was weaker both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. We still observe low demand for petrochemical products as well as, let's say, this is a part of economic slowdown. Model petchem margin dropped 4% quarter-on-quarter due to worsening margins on polyolefins.
Quotations of all hydrocarbons dropped in Q1 quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, which is a negative on Upstream segment. However, the decrease on the nat gas prices on the Polish Power Exchange by over 40% had a positive impact on the Gas Trading segment.
Nat gas prices in Q1 were decreasing more than electricity prices. So this definitely resulted in a higher spread electricity versus nat gas. And also it means higher utilization of our CCGTs. Relatively weak zloty against the dollar was factor significantly supporting our operational results.
So now let's move to Slide #6. In the first quarter, we see lower fuel consumption of all the markets year-on-year. The dynamics is one digit, but definitely it shows that we have the economic slowdown, GDP dynamics in all markets. With exception of Germany, shows a decrease compared to the previous year, which is the result of energy crisis and high inflation in Europe.
Let's move to Slide #8, financial results. In Q1, we generated, as I've mentioned at the beginning, more than PLN 110 billion of revenues. This is due to higher sales volumes coming from consolidation of LOTOS Group and PGNiG Group as well as higher quotations of refining products at lower quotation of petchem and hydrocarbon prices.
EBITDA LIFO, PLN 17.2 billion, was higher by PLN 14.4 billion compared to previous year, mainly due to consolidation of LOTOS Group and PGNiG Group, summing up to PLN 9.8 billion contribution but also higher refining margins, weakening of Polish zloty versus U.S. dollar, higher nonfuel margins in retail and positive impact of hedging.
Those above-mentioned results were limited by negative impact of lower petchem margins, lower fuel margins in retail, usage of historical inventory layers, CO2 reserves increase and higher overheads and labor costs.
Negative impact of changes in crude oil prices on inventory valuations of LIFO effect amounted, in Q1, minus PLN 1.2 billion what caused the drop of reported EBITDA to the level of PLN 16 billion.
Financials below EBIT line amounted to PLN 0.8 billion, mainly due to, let's say, surplus of positive FX differences and interest. Net profit in Q1 amounted to PLN 9.2 billion.
So now let's move to Slide #9. EBITDA split by segment. Refining, PLN 5.5 billion, higher results by PLN 4.6 billion year-on-year. This is mainly due to positive macro impact and the consolidation of LOTOS Group in the amount of PLN 0.9 billion and negative impact of historical inventory layers and higher overheads and labor costs.
Petchem, very weak result, PLN 0.1 billion, decreased by PLN 0.4 billion year-on-year due to negative impact of lower sales volumes, usage of historical inventory layers and the higher overheads and labor costs and positive macro impact.
Energy, PLN 3.3 billion, so higher by PLN 2.3 billion year-on-year. This is a result of positive impact of macro, higher sales volumes and consolidation of PGNiG in the amount of PLN 0.6 billion. So those effects were limited by negative impact of higher overheads and labor costs.
Retail, PLN 0.2 billion, decreased by PLN 0.4 billion due to negative impact of lower fuel margins, higher cost of running business and positive impact of higher nonfuel margins.
Upstream PLN 2.3 billion, increased by PLN 2.1 billion. This is due to consolidation of results of LOTOS Group and PGNiG Group in the amount of PLN 2.2 billion and negative impact of higher overheads and labor costs.
Gas, significant result, PLN 6.2 billion. Of course, this result is not comparable and it comes from the consolidation of acquired PGNiG Group.
In terms of corporate functions, minus PLN 0.4 billion, higher costs by PLN 0.1 billion year-on-year, and this is due to increase in the scale of operations of ORLEN Group.
So now let's move to the details of each segments, starting from refining EBITDA LIFO, as I've mentioned, PLN 5.5 billion year-on-year. The result was higher by PLN 4.6 billion, and this was the result of positive macro impact in the amount of PLN 5.6 billion. So we see higher margins on light and middle distillates, weaker Polish zloty versus U.S. dollar, positive impact of hedging and valuation of CO2 contracts as well as lower internal cost of usage as a result of lower oil prices. And we also had a negative impact of higher CO2 provisions.
Additionally, the refining segment results were positively affected by consolidation of LOTOS Group, PLN 0.9 billion, and higher trade margins with the negative impact of the usage of historical inventory layers, higher overheads and labor costs.
As a result of consolidation, sales volumes increased by 26% year-on-year. We observed sales of all products increased, including gasoline by 21%; diesel, 25%; LPG, 34%; jet fuel, 36%; and HSFO, 20%. So significant increases.
Despite the increase in the sales volumes, the volume effect was negative due to changes in the structure of processed crude oil. So we reduced significantly throughput of REBCO and we were processing more expensive grades.
So now let's move to Slide #11, operational data. In Q1, we processed 9.5 million tonnes of crude oil, which is 90% of capacity utilization. Comparing year-on-year, the throughput was higher by 1.3 million tonnes, of which we had a higher throughput in PKN ORLEN by 1.4, resulting from mainly a throughput of Gdansk refinery in the amount of 1.8 million tonnes, so full utilization, at lower throughput of Plock refinery by 0.4 million tonnes due to realization of maintenance shutdowns that are listed in the slide. We had a higher fuel yield by 2% year-on-year. This is a result of lower share of high sulfur crude oils in the throughput structure.
In ORLEN Unipetrol, higher throughput by 0.1. This is a result of favorable macro environment. However, we recorded lower fuel yield by 5 percentage points year-on-year. And this was due to a higher share of high sulfur crude oils in the throughput structure.
In ORLEN Lietuva, lower throughput by minus 0.1. This is the result of maintenance shutdowns of visbreaking units that we conducted in Q1. And in terms of fuel yields, this increased by 2 percentage points due to improved structure of processed crude oils.
Sales, 7.4 million tonnes, so 26% year-on-year, as I've mentioned. And this is mainly due to consolidation of volumes of the Gdansk refinery. If we look on sales on particular countries, in Poland, higher by 54%, lower sales in Czech Republic by 8% and Lithuania by 7%.
Slide #12, petchem. Petchem achieved only PLN 100 million EBITDA LIFO, which means a decrease by almost 80% year-on-year. And this is a consequence of lower sales volumes by 20% year-on-year. We recorded a decrease in sales in all markets. Other factors that had a negative impact on the results in the first quarter was a negative impact of usage of historical inventory layers, lower trade margins and higher overheads and labor costs.
Q1 results were positively affected by macro environment, including mainly valuation of CO2 contracts hedging with negative impact of lower margins on petrochemical products, all petrochemical products really saying, weakening of euro versus U.S. dollar and CO2 provisions.
Slide #13. So operational data of petchem segment. As you see on the slide, we recorded in Q1 decrease year-on-year in the utilization of the capacity of the main petrochemical units. And this was due to the market challenges and the decrease in the demand for petrochemical products.
Higher utilization year-on-year was recorded only in fertilizer installation Wloclawek but that was only the effect of lack of the shutdown that we had last year, so the base was significantly higher.
Sales amounted to 1.1 million tonnes and was lower by 20% year-on-year, including sales of monomers by minus 26%; aromatics, 16%; fertilizers, 20%; plastics, 28%; PTA, 42%; slightly higher sales of polymers. So at this stage, this is all from my side. So now I will let [ Oleg ] to describe other segments. So [ Oleg ], floor is yours.
Thank you, Konrad. Good morning, everyone. So let's start from the financial results of Energy segment. In Energy segment In the first quarter posted EBITDA of PLN 3.3 billion, mainly as a result of Energa Group EBITDA of PLN 2.3 billion. The assets of ORLEN Group, including ex PGNiG assets have increased segment results by almost PLN 1 billion. The positive macro year-on-year was an important factor supporting the result, especially a favorable price ratio of energy sales to purchase on the Polish Power Exchange in the Energa Group as well as the positive impact of the valuation of CO2 future contracts and the gradual utilization of the provision from December 2022 for onerous contracts with the negative impact of the provision on CO2 emissions.
We recorded an increase in the production and sales of electricity year-on-year in CCGT Wloclawek and Plock due to decrease of natural gas prices and positive spread between electricity and gas quotations. Production and sales volumes in the entire ORLEN Group remained at a similar level compared to the first quarter of 2022.
Higher cost of production due to higher prices of raw materials, mainly coal and gas, have been compensated by 26% higher tariff on heat sales compared to the tariff levels in the end of 2022. As a result, the impact of ex PGNiG Group amounted to over PLN 560 million.
Let's move to Slide #15, operational data of Energy segment. In the first quarter, ORLEN Group produced 4.7 terawatt hour of electricity, of which almost 60% of production has been generated in renewable energy services and gas-fired units. Production and sales of electricity, including ex PGNiG and ex LOTOS remained at a comparable level year-on-year. Distribution of electricity dropped by 6% year-on-year as a result of limiting consumption by business customers. Heat sales volumes from own production amounted to 30.2 terawatt hours and was lower by 3% year-on-year with temperature higher by 1.3 Celsius degree in the quarter.
Slide #16, financial results of Retail segment. Retail, in the first quarter of 2023 achieved EBITDA of PLN 233 million and was lower by PLN 352 million compared to first quarter of 2022, which was mainly due to a decrease in the fuel margin year-on-year on each of the markets. In addition, we recorded a negative impact of higher operating cost of fuel station due to increase in the number of fuel stations and higher overheads and labor costs year-on-year.
The above effects were limited by the positive impact of the increase in nonfuel margins year-on-year on the Polish and Czech markets with comparable margins on the German and Lithuania markets.
Slide #17, operational data Retail segment. Sales volumes in the first quarter of 2023 were comparable year-on-year, including lower sales in Poland by 5% and in Germany by 3% with higher sales in the Czech Republic by 44% and in Lithuania by 14%. The number of fuel stations at the end of first quarter of 2022 was -- 2023, sorry, sorry -- at the end of the first quarter of 2023 was 3,122, up by 244 compared to the end of first quarter of 2022.
The number of fuel stations increased in Poland and Hungary as a result of the merger with LOTOS Group and implementation of remedies and in Slovakia as a result of launching and rebranding self-service fuel stations acquired from the local network.
Market share increased in Poland, Hungary and Slovakia with decrease in the Czech Republic year-on-year. Number of nonfuel locations increased by 230 year-on-year to 2,530. Number of alternative fuel points amounted to 650 compared to 560 in the same period a year earlier. The number of ORLEN Paczka locations exceeded 9,100 after increase of 2,438 locations year-on-year.
Now let's move to financial results of Upstream division. Upstream segment posted EBITDA of PLN 2.3 billion, 14x growth compared with the first quarter of 2022. It's mainly a consolidation effect of the finance of PGNiG Group and LOTOS Group. In the first quarter of 2023, a positive impact in this respect amounted to PLN 1.7 billion and PLN 0.5 billion, respectively.
In the first quarter, average production of hydrocarbon increased by over 173,000 BOE per day year-on-year including natural gas by almost 131,000 and crude oil and NGL by 42,500 BOE per day year-on-year.
Comparing to the first quarter 2022 quotations of hydrocarbons dropped significantly. Brent crude oil price was lower by 21% year-on-year. And gas prices on spot market decreased by 43% year-on-year. Moreover, EBITDA in Upstream segment was affected by gas write-down on the Price Difference Payment Fund in the amount of PLN 3.4 billion in the first quarter.
Slide #19, operational data of Upstream segment. Total 2P hydrocarbon reserves amounted to 1,278 million BOE. Average gas and oil production in the first quarter of 2023 remained on the level of around 190,000 BOE per day, including Poland with 83,500 BOE per day; in Norway, almost 87,000; Canada, 14,000; Pakistan over 5,000; and Lithuania with 400 BOE per day. Natural gas accounts for over 70% of production structure.
Let's move to Slide #20, financial results of Gas segment. The Gas segment covers activities in the fields of trading, storage and distribution of gas conducted by companies from the former PGNiG Group.
In the first quarter of 2023, the segment generated EBITDA level of PLN 6.2 billion, including PLN 5.1 billion generated by trade and storage and PLN 1.1 billion by distribution segment. In the first quarter, we introduced gas price reduction by minus 21% for retail customers and by minus 55% for business. Significant impact on segment's result especially lower cost of gas in the segment as a result of falling prices on the spot market and in monthly contracts with relatively high average execution price of contracts on Polish Power Exchange amounting to approximately PLN 528 per megawatt hour. Average price of natural gas transferred from Upstream division to Gas segment amounted to PLN 274 per megawatt hour.
In the first quarter, we received also compensations from the Price Difference Payment Fund in the amount of PLN 7.4 billion.
The results from distribution activities remain stable. The group generated EBITDA of PLN 1.1 billion, which means growth by PLN 100 million year-on-year. Positive impact on EBITDA as most of all average growth of network charges by 21% applied in accordance with the act of freezing gas prices, which allows the company to pay compensations.
And Slide #21, operational data of segment gas. Gas imports to Poland in the first quarter 2023 amounted to 33.1 terawatt hours, of which 43% was import via [ Baltic ] part and 27% LNG from United States.
Total gas sales outside the ORLEN Group in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 23% year-on-year. And consumption limiting factors were gas prices, which remained in the future contracts on relatively high levels despite significant drops on the spot market.
Additional impact on demand reduction hit weather. Average temperatures in the first quarter of 2023 were by 1.3 Celsius degree higher year-on-year.
The largest decrease in gas sales year-on-year was recorded among large industrial customers. It amounted to 26.1 terawatt hours. However, it's worth noting that the decrease is caused largely due to the effect of company's mergers. Significant part of the sales volumes compared to first quarter of 2022 is no longer classified as external sales.
As a result of mild winter and lower gas consumption in Poland, gas distribution volumes has also dropped. In the first quarter of 2023, it amounted to 43 terawatt hours. That is minus 7% year-on-year.
The volume of gas stored in Poland at the end of March 2023 amounted to 20 terawatt hours, which was 55% of the total gas storage capacity in Poland. PKN ORLEN has owned over 11 terawatt hours gas stored both in Poland and abroad at the end of the first quarter.
Okay. So thank you, [ Oleg ]. So now I will ask Michal Perlik to describe the cash flow and the debt situation. Please Michal, unmute your microphone. So the floor is yours.
Thank you. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear you, Michal.
Okay. Great. Good morning, everyone. So shortly about cash flow and then debt position. Another strong quarter from the operational cash flow perspective, over PLN 23 billion of positive net inflow from operations and generated by 3 main contributors, meaning EBITDA of PLN 16 billion. We recorded also a positive impact on the working capital, decreasing our needs on working capital by PLN 6 billion and a positive settlement of deposits securing our hedge instruments, mainly on gas and crude oil of PLN 4.7 billion, partially offset by minus PLN 2 billion of impact on derivatives.
On the investment side, we recorded PLN 5.3 billion spent for CapEx and PLN 1.7 billion of change in advance payment. What we are observing here is also purchase of treasury bonds for over PLN 3 billion and purchase of CO2 allowances which we made in first quarter for PLN 3.8 billion.
Now altogether, our net debt has decreased by PLN 9.2 billion over the last quarter, except the reasons I just mentioned, the also one more significant impact was related to payment of income tax, which was minus PLN 4 billion in last quarter.
On the next slide, you can see the evolution of the net debt, which is -- which was, at the end of the first quarter, minus 11.5 billion. The composition of the debt has not changed significantly. As you all know, we have termination of euro bonds issued by PKN ORLEN by ORLEN Capital 20 years ago, and we are working on update of our EMTN documentation to be able to come to the market and refinance this bond issue.
The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is minus 0.26, so we're in safe and -- very safe situation. No changes also in terms of ratings and outlooks. So very stable liquidity situation. Thank you very much. That's all from my side.
Thank you, Michal. Konrad Wlodarczyk speaking. So now let's move to Slide #25, CapEx in Q1. CapEx amounted to PLN 5.3 billion. So nearly half of the amount was spent in refining, energy and petchem. PLN 2.1 billion was spent in upstream and for the expansion of distribution network in the gas segment. Just to remind you, for this year, our planned CapEx amounts over PLN 36 billion, of which over 70% for development projects. So we may say that more or less equally, we plan to spend in refining, petchem energy and upstream segments. And the detailed list of the major growth projects you have on this slide on the right-hand side.
Now let's move to the macro environment, current macro, so Slide #27. So if we look on the current macro environment, definitely quarter-on-quarter, we observed a decrease. So model refining margin is lower by more than 30% quarter-on-quarter. So average is USD 11.7 per barrel, Spot currently is USD 13 per barrel. And this is mainly due to negative impact of lower diesel cracks and gasoline cracks, partially limited by higher HSFO cracks and lower gas prices.
Refining margins are still sound, truly saying, even despite a sharp drop in April due to back on stream French refining capacities after strikes and also the rebound in China's domestic demand. In the short term, I think that there is a potential for an upside for margins, on one hand, lower supply as a result of maintenance season in Europe and lower utilization of Russian refineries. On the other hand, higher demand due to China reopening also air travel recover and also upcoming driving season.
Crude oil price flat quarter-on-quarter at the level of USD 81 per barrel. Spot is below USD 80. In terms of diesel cracks, which are at high pressure, so decreased by more than 50% quarter-on-quarter, average USD 118 per tonne, Spot USD 120 per tonne. So comparing to, let's say, to the previous quarters when we observed extraordinary levels of USD 200 per tonne, USD 300 per tonne. So we see a huge downward trend. And this comes from restart of the production in French refineries but also lower demand for middle distillates due to concerns on the global economic recession, higher export from China and also quite high inventories in ARA region.
In terms of gasoline cracks, it's slightly lower quarter-on-quarter, average slightly below USD 300 per tonne, spot USD 320 per tonne. So this is mainly due to lower exports from Northwest Europe, lower demand for gasoline in U.S., higher inventories in ARA region.
HSFO cracks increased more than 20% quarter-on-quarter as an average minus USD 190 per tonne, Spot minus USD 170 per tonne aided to lower availability of high sulfur crude oil. But also, we may say it's a fact of higher demand from Saudi Arabia for HSFO to generate energy in the summer season.
In terms of Gas prices, decreased by almost 30% quarter-on-quarter, average almost PLN 200 per megawatt hour, Spot PLN 140. And this is mainly due to mild winter and, of course, ongoing high LNG import to Europe. So this is close to last year highs. EU gas storages are at, let's say, 65% full, so 25 percentage points higher year-on-year and around 20 percentage points above the 5-year average. So the refill of European storages is according to the seasonal pattern.
Differential, significantly lower, almost 50% drop quarter-on-quarter, average USD 2.7 per barrel, and this is mainly due to a lower share of euros in ORLEN Group throughput quarter-on-quarter and also lower BU differential. Just to remind you, we are processing, roughly speaking, slightly above 10% of fuels in ORLEN Group.
China and India are still main buyers of Russian crude oil, but also, we see some imports to Turkey that's increased significantly. In terms of petrochemicals, margin increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter average EUR 1,072 per tonne, slightly lower spot, and this is mainly due to higher polymer prices at lower feedstock due to decrease in crude oil price.
Last slide, Slide 28. So market outlook for this year. In terms of macro, we did not change our assumptions in respect to this year. So crude oil price range USD 85 per barrel, USD 95 per barrel, refining margin, USD 11 per barrel; differential, USD 5 per barrel. However, currently observing the trend, it could be slightly lower. In terms of petchem margins, EUR 1,100 per tonne; nat gas prices, PLN 200 per megawatt hour; and electricity prices, the level of PLN 500 per megawatt hour.
If we have a quick look on GDP forecast on our major market, we may say that it looks more optimistic versus previous quarter. But still, we expect drop of fuel consumption and petchem products year-on-year due to economic slowdown, lower nat gas consumption year-on-year due to energy crisis and record high feedstock prices, but also savings in the consumption of gas. And in terms of electricity, we expect comparable consumption comparing to the previous year.
In terms of regulations affecting our business. So European Union embargo on fuels from Russia. Increase in national index target, up to 8.9. But please bear in mind that we have a reduced ratio at the level of 5.8. And this act of the special protection of the certain customers consuming gas.
But I would like also to point out, let's say, new fuel that is going to be, let's say, implemented on fuel stations, so E10. So this is, let's say, the fuel with higher bioethanol content. And here, we declare, let's say, the technical readiness for the implementation of this gasoline on ORLEN stations from the beginning of 2024.
So that's all from my side as for now. So thank you for the attention, and please feel free to ask questions. [Operator Instructions]
Lukasz Prokopiuk. Could I take 2 questions, please?
Yes, go ahead, please.
I'll have them one by one, if I may. The first question is a hypothetical one. If you were offered to buy, a, [indiscernible]; b, [indiscernible]; and c, the PDH project, would you be interested in it?
The answer is simple. At this stage, our approach is that we do not comment maybe speculations on our, let's say, potential interest in purchasing assets of other entities, especially those entities that are listed. So I know that it's not satisfactory for you. Even hypothetically, we cannot answer this question precisely.
Okay. Okay. And the second question is it's on your dividend policy. If I understand correctly, your dividend policy is to pay 40% of generated free cash flows, but not lower than the specified floor level. And the question is, how do you calculate the free cash flow? Like on Page 23 of the presentation, you show free cash flows, yes. And is it -- is the PLN 9.2 billion figure. Is it -- is this used as an approximate measure to calculate the dividend? Or is it calculated differently?
Michal, if I may ask you to answer the question, that will be great.
Sorry, can you hear me now?
Yes, we hear you.
Okay. Okay. So we had some technical problems with microphone. So in general, yes, you're right. This is the policy, except some small adjustment. We have defined that it will be adjusted free cash flow, meaning that adjusted for some really unexpected one-off issues that we cannot even predict. But in general, how we are approaching it, it's 40% of the cash flow for operation minus schedule from investment. So this is the general approach.
However, we, let's say, the guarantee also the right to make some adjustment if we see that there is a need to make such adjustment. There was, for example, a need to make it last year because part of the debt that we, I would say, heritage or take over with LOTOS and PGNiG, taking LOTOS and consolidating LOTOS and PGNiG. The debt that was actually brought by 2 companies was not presented in the cash flow. So we had to make this kind of adjustment.
So in general, it's free cash flow from operation, cash flow from operation and cash flow -- minus cash flow from investment, and 40% of it. And there might be some adjustment if needed. And not less than the base, the guarantee dividend, which will be 4.15 next year.
I understood everything, but like a follow-up question, because first of all, like you bought PLN 3 billion of government bonds, yes? It's in the investment cash flow. So like it's -- it should be excluded from free cash flow so...
It might be, too early to mention. Really, we didn't have such discussions so far so...
Okay. So I have a small request...
We have a right to some adjustments. They must be reasonable. And of course, we also have to look at the total liquidity of the group when making the decision or the recommendation to the general meeting. And I think it's really too early to discuss the potential level of the dividend for next year.
Yes. But well, I would like to ask, is it -- if you could, like, present free cash flow level, that would be the best proxy for the incoming dividend. I know it's too early, it's the first quarter, but I understand the PLN 9.2 billion is some kind of proxy for the dividend next year, yes?
No, 40% of it, yes. 40% of it.
40%, yes. Okay.
So yes, if we keep it for the remaining part of the year, so you can kind of [ assume ] it, yes.
It's Tamas Pletser speaking for Erste Bank. May I have 2 questions, please?
Tamas, yes, go ahead.
My first question, actually, both questions with regard to your Russian crude oil supply. There were some news recently that you want to turn Litvinov refinery to seaborne crude and receive the crude from the TAL pipeline. My question is, how long would it take to make this switch? And what is the investment on your side? So that would be my first question.
And my second question with regard to the supply of your Polish refineries. Do you still receive any crude on the northern part of the Druzhba pipeline? Because I read some newspaper reports saying that some Kazakh crude is still arriving on the Druzhba to your refineries.
Okay. So answering your questions, if we are talking about the REBCO, REBCO is delivered only to our Czech refineries. So in Q1, deliveries to Poland were completely stopped. So first of all, one of the contract with Rosneft simply expired at the end of January. And then the contract with Tatneft was terminated due to the fact that Russian sites stopped delivering crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline. So we withdraw from this contract without, let's say, any consequences. So for Polish operations, no Russian crude oil is processed anymore.
In terms of ORLEN Lietuva, they stopped processing just after the war started last year. But in terms of Czech operations, we have still a long-term contract with Rosneft for 5 million tonnes of crude oil, which is going to expire in the mid of 2025. Of course, in terms of, let's say, Czech operations, currently it's a little bit too hard to decrease dependence on the Russian crude oil due to, let's say, the capacity of IPL or TAL pipeline, yes, because in terms of Czech operations, we have 2 routes of supply, the crude oil could be delivered via the Druzhba pipeline from Russia, or via, let's say, the pipeline from Adriatic. So there are, let's say, close stocks with Czech sites to speed up the investments and, let's say, reduce the dependence on the Russian crude oil, but I think it's year 2024, late 2024 or, let's say, the beginning of 2025.
That was -- that was confirmed by the meeting of the CEO, Mr. Obajtek, with the Czech government this week in Prague. So we want to get rid of Czech, gas and crude in Czech Republic by beginning of 2025 and increase the utilization of TAL pipeline.
So basically, by early 2025, you can get rid of completely on the REBCO crude, if I understand this correctly?
Yes, you understand correctly. The only way, in case of, let's say, some sanctions on, let's say, processing of Russian crude oil via the pipelines, the only way to solve this problem is just to reduce the capacity of one of the Czech refineries at least. We do not see such a scenario, so don't worry.
Okay. And do you receive any other types of crude on the Druzhba? Like there were some talks about Kazakh crudes to be carried over towards Poland. Is this the case? Or is it completely empty now?
We do not receive Kazakh crudes from Druzhba. We are aware of some discussions between Germans and supplies of Kazakh crude to Schwedt refinery in Germany. But I don't know the details right now, and I don't want to mislead you.
So currently, if you look on the structure of crude oil that we process, so REBCO is, let's say, 10%. In terms of Arabian crude oil is more than 45%. Then the big chunk of Norwegian crude oil, so Johan Sverdrup, more than 20%; WTI, more than 5%; and comparable level of Azeri Light 5%. So this is the current structure of crude oils that we process in ORLEN Group.
It's Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citi. Can I ask a question?
Yes, go ahead, Piotr.
So firstly I wanted to ask about your gas mix profitability. So clearly, we've seen a big uplift. But how sustainable do you think this operation will be going forward? And can you give some clarity on what the -- how would you think about the normalized level of contribution of this business? So that's the first question.
Second question I had, I have on the Czech energy tax. What is the impact on your company? And as you -- was there anything coming out of the discussions that the company had in the Czech Republic last week?
And then thirdly, I wanted to ask you a question of this working capital release that you've seen in the first quarter. Which company was this responsible to a large extent? Was it at PGNiG side? Or was it PKN side? Or where did it happen?
Yes, according to your first question about the perspective of gas segment in this year, what we can expect that, of course, in this quarter, the environment was especially good for the gas segment because of the difference between the spot prices, which were going down and the prices which are realized from the past in contracts.
And we see this in the results and in the EBITDA level. And of course, in the future quarters, we don't expect so good, let's say, an environment to achieve a similar level of EBITDA looking at the current level of spot market and falling down levels of realized contracts in the future.
Of course, the question is what will be the market and how the gas prices will be in the future because it's hard to say what will be in the winter. And yes -- it's possible that...
I guess -- sorry to interrupt. I guess I was asking you what's the kind of -- like how do you think about the business model of this segment? What's the main exposure? Let's assume there is no volatility in the market. In a normal year, what's the exposure of kind of you buy gas from upstream and import, market and sell it and how much margin you charge on, I don't know, SME or B2B customers? And how much is the contribution of LNG contracts? Can you break it down this way? And what's your targeted normalized level? And why you are not hedging this spread? Why do you accept this volatility?
I am afraid that you won't be satisfied by my answer. But we -- as before, we don't reveal the margins in our customers. So all I can say that is you can look at the current prices in the, let's say, retail segment. And of course, looking at the current prices of contracts when you want to try, calculate margins in the big industrial clients.
According to hedging, as you can see, we generated positive hedge in the first quarter, and the level of hedging is much lower than in the past. But it all depends how the market will be in the future. So it's hard to say about hedging policy in the future. We maintain our hedging policy, not to speculate, just to hedge our contract to be sure that we have safe contracts.
Understood.
In terms of windfall tax, yes, the windfall tax in the Czech Republic is a fact. It is set at the level of, if I remember correctly, 60% of the profits exceeding 120% of the average from last 4 years. So years 2018, 2021. And this, of course, comes on top of, let's say, 90% of corporate tax rate. So the tax similarly to those imposed on other European countries, will be applied for 3 years. So from 2023 till '25. And we calculated Barden from this tax at the level of PLN 700 million on the yearly basis on the group level.
Okay. That's very clear. And the last question on the working capital, please?
Michal, if I may ask you to answer the question, that would be great.
Can you remind the question, sorry?
Sure. Which component, the working capital -- yes.
Both actually on the gas side and the crude oil side and the refinery products. So actually, all the major elements were contributing positively to improve working capital.
This is Tomasz Krukowski, Santander. Can I go ahead?
Yes, Tomasz. Yes, please.
So just a follow-up on this working capital. Do you expect this working capital release to continue in the following quarter? Or do you think it's just going to be stable?
We do not hear you, Michal. I see that your microphone is working, but we do not hear you.
Sorry. I didn't hear the question. Once again, could you please repeat, sorry.
The question was about the working capital. Given the fact that you released already something in the first quarter, do you expect this release to continue in the following quarters? Or do you think your working capital level will be stable from now on?
[indiscernible]
We do not hear you.
Can you hear me now?
Yes. Now it works.
Hello. Can you hear me now?
Yes, we can hear you.
Sorry, because today, we are working from different locations. So this is the reason for this technical problems. So the answer is pretty straightforward because the improvement of the working capital that we're observing right now is mainly related to the price of the gas of the crude oil and the products. And not that -- to that extent, it's related to the change of the payment terms or the change of inventory addition. So I would say that everything depends on the further trend of the change of the prices of the commodity sales of crude oil and gas. And it's difficult to predict which direction it will go. If we observe further drop, then we can potentially observe further improvement in working capital.
Understand. And one more question, if I may. I just want to ask you about the profitability of your regulated businesses, the heat or grid business in Energa or gas distribution business, can you walk me through how the profitability or the major parameters of this business change year-over-year? I'm talking about the rate on regulated asset base, how we change year-over-year. And the tariffs in your heat business, whether the new one which you received for this year, this is something which will stay for the entire year or it's just -- it was just for the first quarter to help you?
You asked only about, let's say, the regulations. So the tariffs, yes, that are imposed on energy segment, let's say.
No. I'm asking about work in -- which you right now allowed to charge on our regulated asset base in gas distribution and in Energa's grid business, energy distribution.
We will check the data and come back, okay, to you.
Lukasz Prokopiuk. Could I have a follow-up question, please?
Yes, go ahead.
CapEx. The CapEx in the first quarter was relatively low at PLN 5.3 billion. You mentioned that you intend to spend PLN 36 billion, if I remember correctly. So what can we expect from CapEx in the next quarters? Will it accumulate in the second part of the year? Or is the PLN 36 billion benchmark may be too high?
I think it should speed up. So we still stick to our, let's say, projections, so PLN 36 billion. Usually, Q1, in terms of CapEx spending is less packed with -- less packed than other quarters. So usually, as you said, the second half of the year is more CapEx spending for the projects. So we stick to the projections of PLN 36 billion CapEx for this year is still valid.
Okay. And the second question connected with investment cash flow. You bought PLN 3 billion of CO2 allowances in the quarter. I mean, how much do you expect to buy more allowances to fill in -- to have all the requirements for the year of the required year allowances?
For this year?
Yes.
For this year, we already have enough.
So if -- can we expect no other major negatives cash outflows for CO2 allowances in the next quarters? Yes, that's correct?
Depends on the trends. If we see -- if we observe opportunity to purchase CO2, then we can decide to invest. In general, we are gradually opening our position. So it very much depends on the situation on the market.
But if the situation doesn't change, we may assume that no other big cash outflows will be recorded in next quarters, yes?
No, I wouldn't say that there will be no other cash flow because we are saving for the next year already proportionally. So there will be for sure some outflows, but not massive ones.
We have [ Oleg ]. That's -- he may answer the question of Tomasz.
Yes. I'm coming back with the tariff to distribution segment. And the current level of WACC is 5.6%, and the regulated asset base is around PLN 19.8 billion.
It's Anna Kishmariya from UBS. May I ask a question, please? Can you hear me?
Yes.
So first one would be on the compensation. And would you expect further payments this year? And second one will be on the windfall taxes in Poland. Is there any updates you can share on windfall tax discussion in the country?
Truly saying, there is no update on the windfall taxation in Poland, yes. So nothing to add. Yes, nothing has changed. So this topic is on the agenda for more than 1 year, but there is no final decision truly saying.
And on the compensation?
Can you repeat the question about the compensation?
Yes. So the question is whether you expect further payments this year?
On the gas compensation?
Yes.
Yes, we are. We have paid like over PLN 8 billion so far. So we expect further payments.
Will it be like evenly paid over the next quarters? Or could you give rough estimate there?
Rather second half of the year.
Okay. So if there are no more questions -- yes, no questions? So this concludes our conf call. Thank you very much for attending the conference call. Take care and have a good day. Bye.
Bye.
Thank you.