Atal SA

WSE:1AT

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Andrzej Biedronka-Tetla, executive]

Okay. It is 11. So good morning, and welcome to the Quarterly Conference, the Results Conference. This is now the First Quarter of 2024. These are the results of Atal Group. And our conference is being transmitted in two language versions, the Polish and the English version. You can choose linguistic version, choosing the interpretation button for the interpretation.And today, as usual, the President of Management Board, Mr. Juroszek will participate in the conference, and I shall be the moderate. My name is Andrzej Biedronka-Tetla, I am the member of the Board for Financial CFO. So I will just announce that we will traditionally present the results presentation. And then we shall ask you to forward your questions using Zoom and our chart show. So we -- shall we start the presentation and let us then sum up the results for the first quarter of 2024.Operating activities, and here, there's a novelty. This is a slide you must know perfectly well already, but it's slightly different than the slides we used to present in the previous quarters and even years, due to the 8 branch we have opened recently in [indiscernible]. And currently, there is land purchase for 2 investments there. And we are also -- we were presenting the data as at the end of March here, where there was a single land investment 404 flats.And across Poland, we are currently implementing 35 development project for 7,000 more than 7, 411 flats, and this is a total service area of 428,000 square meters. And in the future on land, we have available. We actually own this land. Let us emphasize this. So either we are owners or perpetual [ use of fructuaries ]. We will have 48 investment projects. This -- these are the flats, 12,664, flats.Now as far as flat sales concerned, in Q1, 2024, yes, we have 730 flats sold, and this is higher than the poor, let's say, quarter of last year 2023 because this is up 82%. So we can see these bars in the chart below quarterly sales at 730. This is comparable to Q2 and Q3 of last year. So this is more or less a level, which is stable, and it is not yet impacted by the flats program we are expecting in the future.Obviously, Atal compared to the competition with 730 flats, it comes fourth for Q1 2024. And our offering, yes, there's quite a big surprise, I suppose, because there is an increase in the number of flats we had in our offer. As at the end of Q1 that was quite a significant increase because we had 5,000, terminate 61 flats, as at the end of the first quarter of 2024. So quite a significant increase compared to the first quarter of 2023 and to the end of the year 2023. This is a result of us actually implementing quite a few construction projects in Q4, as well as of 10 actually and in Q1, 2024, so in the last quarter of 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024. So these are new projects, which we believe will also lead to an increase in sales in the future.And what usually is of highest interest to us and translate into the results disclosed by Atal Group. This is the number of handed over flats by city, in particular, in Q1 2024, 667 flats. And now Krakow, but also mainly [ Wroclaw ] and Tri-City. So these are projects located in mainly in these cities decided on the result of Q1.Handovers volume versus the previous period. Here, we have a 100% increase compared to Q1 2023. And this is how the construction sites were completed, the construction was completed. So hence, this high increase.Now handovers in Q1 in terms of the surface area of flats handed over. Here, we see an increase, not by 100%, but by 114%. So this surface area of flats handed over was larger than last year in Q1. And the average surface area of the flat was also larger.New land purchased in 2024. In Q1, we spent PLN 75 million on land, and this will allow us to implement investments [ worth 40 ] -- well, with -- sorry, with 42,000 square meters of useful surface area. Apart from land, we purchased in Krakow, Katowice and stretching after the balance sheet date, 1st of April 2024. Until today, we purchased other land for PLN 64 million. So we have spent, well, nearly PLN 140 million this year on land, as far as Q1 is concerned.Coming back to Q1, the average price of purchase of a single square meter of useful surface area was [ PLN 1,795 ] per square meter. So it's quite a decent and not excessively high price. The land bank as at 31st March allowed us to implement projects for a total useful service area of 702,000 square meters.And now let us pass to dividend for the previous years. You know the situation perfectly well, I suppose, and our dividend policy, at least 70% of our net profit to be paid out as dividend. And this year, the management Board of Atal recommended or confirmed informed that it would recommend to the General Meeting of Shareholders, which will be convened soon, most probably payment of dividend in the amount of PLN 259 million, which is basically 76% of the profit of Atal.So our presence on the market, on the stock exchange in total, with this planned dividend, it will be [ PLN 1.209 billion ]. So we have paid, and we will pay what the Management Board has recommended this year. Obviously, there is a key decision to be taken by the General Shareholders' Meeting, and this is the recommendation of the management board for the time being.Now let us pass to the potential of handovers for 2024. And this is as at the 31st of March, we [ have ] used permits are planned to be obtained for new tenant flats of which the numbers sold, you can see the number here. So the contractual number is actually quite high. The contracting is at [ 80 ] -- sales contracting is at 80%. So as at the end of 2023, we had quite a significant number of flats not handed over, which will also increase the potential of handovers for the year 2024.Now coming back to the end of March 2024, so to be handed over on investments completed 436 flats. Now the potential of handovers for 2025, this is over 3,000 flats, 3,062 to be exact, of which sold is 1,035 flats and as at the balance sheet date of the 31st March, and this is the level of contracting at 34%.The total potential of handovers for planned projects after 2026. So flats to be handed over from 2026 is 59 projects in total for 851,877 square meters and 15,290 flats to be exact. And so, stretching will definitely -- another project will be added there. So there will be a bit more than that.Now let us pass to the second part of the presentation, the consolidated financial results. And here the company shares its consolidated result, well, the group's results. The group generated profit -- sorry, revenues from sales of PLN 390 million, and that's a gross net result of PLN 120 -- or nearly PLN 122 million. That's the gross results on sale and the net results PLN 95 million. And the profit per share was PLN 2.23 [indiscernible].And the gross margin on sales, you can see the red bar in the chart, this is over 31%, whilst the net margin is nearly 25%. So this is lower than in Q1 2022, but actually higher than the whole of 2023. The first quarter of 2023 was quite particular because there was quite a low number of handovers in the first quarter of 2023, but high-margin projects. So this is why this margin for the first quarter somehow distorts this comparison.And let us look at the consolidated financials. 2023, we have [ PLN 1.5 billion ] in revenues, whilst the first quarter of 2024, this is PLN 390 million in revenues. And compared to the same period of last year, this is an increase by 106%.Net result in the same period, 80%, up [ PLN 34 million ] to EUR 97 million. And gross and net margin, if we compare it to the same period of last year, is in a downward trend, as I said just a while ago. Although as you compare it to profitability in previous years, if you compare this to profitability in previous years, for instance, gross margin, that's '23, '20 and so on, then gross margin is much higher.And here, again, a comparison of what I said just a while ago, so gross margin and net margin on a quarterly basis. So we see that the 31.2% of gross margin is quite solid, quite robust compared to the previous quarters.Now going towards the balance sheet, we can say that it's quite consistent. So up by 4% in terms of current assets and inventory. This increase was financed with the increase in net profit, which we can see in equity.Some key items of the statement of financial position, increase in inventory by around PLN 100 million. We will look at the reasons for this in a while. In terms of cash and equivalents, this is an increase versus 2023 because we obviously compare ourselves to the end of 2023 in the balance sheet and an increase in equity by the amount of net profit, slightly higher liabilities.And now we should pass to the inventory, which has increased by around PLN 100 million. You can see that here, we have on the right-hand side of the blue line, there's an increase in work in progress. And the increase in offering is the reason for this and is obviously translated into work in progress and also in expenditures on inventories that is the flats under construction.But on the extreme right-hand side, you can see finished products that means the flats, which are ready to be handed over. And here, there's quite a significant decrease down to PLN 124 million, which means that we are spending less and that we are selling most of the flats we have built.And finally, structural debt maturity, as at the 31st of March 2024, we still had [ 70 million ] in bonds to be purchased. They were actually quoted on the catalyst market. And then they were actually redeemed in accordance with the maturity dates according to the issue terms. And we have 2 series of obligations also quoted on the catalyst market, and this is a total nominal amount of PLN 640 million and loans granted by the shareholder of PLN 300 million. So that's basically the shareholder declaring the financing of the company and of the group.And a slide that sums it will up in terms of financing sources for our business. This is mainly equity. This is [ PLN 1.8 billion ] more or less. And the next item is prepayments from customers, PLN 866 million, and this is followed by corporate bonds and loans granted by the shareholder. Well, and that's it as far as the summary is concerned.In the first quarter, we started 4 projects for 510 flats in total. So we also launched 4 investments and we -- that's 1,057 flats and we finished the construction of 5 investments, 639 flats. And so that, that in terms of our introduction.The bond redemption I told you in February and April a total -- back in February bonds were redeemed in a total amount of PLN 163 million. So now we would like to ask you to ask questions using the Q&A feature, and we will finish in a minute and give you time to basically ask the questions in Q&A. So you have a minute more or less to ask the questions using Q&A feature and this will be followed by our answers and the situation will be presented. Thank you for your attention and waiting for the questions in a minute.

[Andrzej Biedronka-Tetla, executive]

Okay. We're back after the short break. About a dozen of questions have appeared and we show either myself or the President will seek to answer them.And we shall read them now. Some of them we might answer after the conference because they are quite detail. So we don't want to go into so much detail here. However during the reading of these questions, the President will comment on the situation -- on the current situation.The first question, do you, are you planning to expand to other markets this year. What kind of land purchase can we expect this year higher than in 2023?

[Zbigniew Juroszek, executive]

So once again, once again, good morning, and I wanted to comment generally on the situation in the company for the time being, as well as on the prospect. So from this presentation, you ca get the picture here, and we as the Management Board are very happy with the results of Q1 with the flows, with the prospects of the company has and with our plans for the coming quarters because in the coming quarters, we are not expecting any distortions. We are planning to open other 15 projects. And more than 3,000 flats to be offered for sale. So this offering is being supplemented and the perspective of entering another market and [ additional ] market of stretching.So Andrzej has mentioned this, we have been watching this market for long time I have to say. And it was kind of in the pipeline to be addressed later. However, we decided that this was the good moment. There are not too many possibilities in these major cities. So at the end of the day, we actually [ got warm to this ] move. And so, we're entering a 2 quite big projects, and it will be a fully-fledged branch ultimately. So it's not -- no coincidence here. It will be a fully, it's not incidental. It will be a fully-fledged branch in the scale of our company. It will have its position, and hopefully, it will be the best possible position obviously. And so, in terms of the scale, we are scaling the business, traditionally, no acquisitions, just normal organic growth.In terms of the situation on the market, there's some questions are recurring here, asked in different ways. So I'll just mention this and then supplement it. So we have the situation in Q1 generally it's good, the sales situation. And the month of April and some part of May is already past us, so the sales are there still. And we have this element of waiting for this new program. And you are in every other question, you are coming back to this.We would also like to see the final version of that program. But we are actually implementing all sorts of inventive ideas and we have an amazing situation in terms of cash in the company, which can be seen in the individual slides. So we can afford this bridge treatment of this and this favorable treatment of customers. And so, this is more like contact with customers, the customers, who are expecting this program, than any specific measurement, as to how much this method and what we implemented would yield in terms of effects. This is not the point. The better the contact of the customer and that was the intent behind this support program.And so, the customers are still there in Poland, and they will keep actually being there for long time for various reasons. We don't see any major threats, whether on the cost side of construction sites. There's not really much change. For a couple of years, we've had some staff issues with the individual subcontractors, but these resources are being supplemented on a current basis somehow.So in terms of the flat prices, some questions have been surfacing. So as you know, we are quite cautious in our outlooks, in our guidance. But this internal assumption is that the prices will go along with the inflation rate. So if it's [ 5% or 4% ], then over the year we should expect this kind of increase. So this is our assumption. We don't want to -- we don't engage in speculation at this point.As you know, that was said at a certain point, but hasn't been always received very warmly, that all the data, we are quite conservative, we are quite cautious in stating the data, so that when we have a final results presentation, the final effects are better in terms of sales, in terms of the assumptions, in terms of the growth perspectives and the final net result translate into dividend. We do everything we can to make the assumptions slightly lower, while our aim is to have them higher.And for several years we've been succeeding in this, and our assumption is that this year will be good, and we want to have a good net result at the end and we want to have the level of dividend to be good. And of course, Q1 is too early to say this, but for the time being the recommendation of the Management Board is still up to date concerning last year. So it's all going according to plan. And I'll come back to the program.Of course, everyday new supplements keep servicing. And the most recent, the relevant one, that there might be a cap, a cap for a price of square meter -- of 1 square meter. It might appear I wouldn't have too many reservations with regard to that. No major reservations. Although the program is already complicated enough in terms of the method of calculation.So we know that the number of children designs, as well as many other factors. And if we take into account that every city would have a different price tag, well, the level of complexity would further increase. So perhaps, I don't know, maybe some one cap would be acceptable, but we don't know that. But these are just some reports, press reports from some, from some basically sources. And nevertheless, let us assume that this will be enacted in some -- to some extent similar to the last version. And this is our base scenario, and we are focusing on our internal affairs.Actually, the effects were seen two years or three years ago, reported by the company, that there had been a lot of internal movement. And I don't talk to you about all of this because this is not the topic of the conference, but this organic growth of the company is quite significant.A lot is happening between the individual branches. [indiscernible] obtained a lot of progress here, a lot of progress, huge progress, which has increased our net margin above all. And even if the sales due to some delays in this program -- support program have been there, the effects in our company then this wide geographic diversification and this very wide product diversification, we assume that in the coming two years at least we should have good results. So that's that.And could you quote any specific question?

[Andrzej Biedronka-Tetla, executive]

Okay. Specific, detailed question. The President has answered quite widely, but I'll try to answer -- to read these questions. Request for a short comment concerning sales in April and May? According to preliminary market data, the sales volumes on the top six markets are lower than in Q1, '24. I've already said a bit about this. Of course, they can be lower.But I don't want to speculate because the quarter is still in progress and June is around the corner, and it may be a record month because there's the perspective of the program, or, you know, there's a last mile. So there might be some acceleration, but it's not that there's some drastic growth. There's a slight slowdown. [ Our aim ] is to be, however, to be caught up with.Okay. Another question about the margin in Q1, 2024. Gross margin on sales exceeded 31% in the whole of 2024. Can we expect a similar margin level?Well, we were assuming in our multi annual strategy that it shouldn't be lower than 25% and we are constantly above this mark. So if there is a surprise, it's positive. So 31% in gross margin, that's a high margin. And the average annual margin may be slightly lower. But as I've registered, we're not stating overly optimistic data to be able to actually fulfill the forecast. So it will be definitely higher than 25%. It might be slightly lower than 31%, but well, let's not expect. We can expect a surprise, actually, because Atal often brings surprises.How many flats are we planning to introduce into sales in the whole of '24?1,457 have already been put up for sale and 3,000 by the end of the year apart from what we've already placed on the market.What are the plans in terms of purchasing of land, in terms of value and volume for the whole of 2024?We've spent around PLN 140 million until now. And on a working basis, we might assume that this will be at least doubled. It's not easy to buy land that would meet our stringent criteria. However, we also have a large amount of cash, which is available, so that's even more than we need for our current purposes. So if there are some opportunities, we will definitely be reacting very quickly indeed. But on a working basis, double, double amount, double to around PLN 300 million.Is Atal planning to enter the market with another bond issue in the coming quarters?Well, this will obviously be subject to analyses by the company. But we've already got you kind of used to the fact that once every half a year we issue bonds, and we go to the market for new funds. And in this half year this hasn't happened perhaps it won't, but next year, we would like to come back to the situation with previous years. But this will be analyzed in detail.How many new flats we've already had this the company wants to offer? What kind of interest is enjoyed by your program? That is [indiscernible]?Well, it's at an initial stage. We have kind of contacted the customers. We'll see.. Okay. Profitability?We've already covered that.Sales in April?We've covered that.Okay. Reservations, prolonged reservations?This was discussed and it's a preliminary stage, this program. We don't want to go into the details during the conference.What's the plan for [ development ] in stretching?Well, as we've mentioned, we want this to be a fully-fledged branch, which will have normal activity. And like an Atal branch, we're not talking about just an incident, but we're talking about a branch that will function on a constant basis. Okay. This has been going on for a couple of months. As you know, the first stage has been sold. The investment in Germany, we're talking about that, what it's thinking. And our plans to sell one or two flats, still two years to go. So here we don't really have anything spectacular to communicate.Now another question. 3,000 -- 3,000. Is this the cap without the [ credit North Star ] the loan because its fate is quite turbulent.Yes. We were assuming it with this loan. The question is when it will enter into force at the latest on the 1st of September. So still a couple of months to go and it might cause some significant revenue. But for the time being, this scenario is still actually in force. So from September and 3,000 we want to sell.Okay. Does this market give any possibilities for price increases for flats? What are the expectations of Management, both in terms of the average annual change in prices, 2024 versus 2023?We've already answered that in part. Now the plan, how many flats to be placed in the offering. Okay. We've talked about that target for sales for full year '24 is still 3,000 Germany. To specify in more detail, the context of the price decreases in Germany, this will kind of -- I found that lacking. Oh, there's a lot of talk about this. However, we are not -- we not at the stage, where the price would be highest. So the decreases actually followed the biggest increases. So we took in Dusseldorf, Munich there the increases were huge, and now there's an adjustment.In terms of Dresden, the increases were not that high and the adjustment can't be seen there. So it's more like less under construction. But these are speculations. Please forgive us, but you know, this investment will be finished in two years. And the interest rates may be totally different, and the situation will be totally different two years from now. So for the time being, we're implementing.So this was the last question you asked. Since there are no more questions, thank you very much for attending today's meeting, and I invite you to follow another conference in September for the first half of the year results. And as usual, follow the Investor Relations section with your more detailed questions. Thank you for your attention. Thank you very much.