Universal Music Group NV
VSE:UMG
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one UMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 23.21 EUR. Compared to the current market price of 23.4 EUR, Universal Music Group NV is Overvalued by 1%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Universal Music Group NV
Run backtest to discover the historical profit from buying and selling UMG based on its intrinsic value.
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Fundamental Analysis
![](https://ik.imagekit.io/kkbzr2uz4cp/other/ai-assistant.png)
Universal Music Group NV (UMG) stands as a formidable player in the global music industry, renowned for its extensive roster of artists and vast catalog of music. With a legacy that traces back over a century, UMG has evolved from a traditional record label to a multifaceted entertainment powerhouse, leveraging digital platforms to adapt to changing consumer behaviors. The company operates through various segments, including recorded music, music publishing, and merchandising, enabling it to diversify its revenue streams and capture growth across multiple areas. Major artists from varied genres, such as Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Billie Eilish, are part of UMG's impressive lineup, solidif...
Universal Music Group NV (UMG) stands as a formidable player in the global music industry, renowned for its extensive roster of artists and vast catalog of music. With a legacy that traces back over a century, UMG has evolved from a traditional record label to a multifaceted entertainment powerhouse, leveraging digital platforms to adapt to changing consumer behaviors. The company operates through various segments, including recorded music, music publishing, and merchandising, enabling it to diversify its revenue streams and capture growth across multiple areas. Major artists from varied genres, such as Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Billie Eilish, are part of UMG's impressive lineup, solidifying its position as a leader in talent representation.
Investors are particularly attracted to UMG's innovative approach and strategic investments in technology, which have allowed the company to capitalize on the rise of streaming services and the growing importance of digital engagement. By embracing new revenue models and establishing partnerships with platforms like Spotify and YouTube, UMG has positioned itself to harness the ongoing transformation within the music landscape. With a strong financial performance characterized by consistent revenue growth and healthy profit margins, UMG presents a compelling investment opportunity. Its ability to adapt to industry shifts and leverage its rich catalog, combined with an ever-expanding global market for music consumption, underlines UMG’s potential for continued success and long-term value creation for shareholders.
Universal Music Group NV (UMG) operates through several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue and market presence. The main segments include:
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Recorded Music: This is the largest segment and includes the development, production, and distribution of music recordings. UMG's recorded music division encompasses a wide array of artists across various genres and markets. This segment generates revenue through physical and digital sales, streaming platforms, and licensing deals.
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Music Publishing: UMG's music publishing division focuses on the management and exploitation of music copyrights. This includes licensing songs for use in films, television, commercials, and other media. The publishing segment also collects royalties for songwriters and composers, making it a vital part of UMG’s business model.
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Merchandising and Other: This segment encompasses various ancillary businesses, including artist merchandise sales, live concert promotions, and ticketing services. UMG often collaborates with artists to produce branded merchandise, enhancing brand loyalty and generating additional revenue streams.
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Artist Services and Related Income: UMG offers a range of services to artists and bands, including marketing, branding, and management support. This segment often generates revenue through live performances, sponsorships, and strategic partnerships.
Overall, Universal Music Group's diverse business segments allow it to leverage multiple revenue sources and maintain a competitive edge in the ever-evolving music industry. Each segment plays a crucial role in supporting and promoting their artists while capitalizing on the growing demand for music in various formats.
Universal Music Group NV (UMG) holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the music industry:
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Diverse Roster of Artists: UMG boasts an extensive and diverse lineup of renowned artists across various genres. This broad talent pool allows the company to attract a wide audience and maintain significant market share.
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Global Reach: UMG operates in numerous markets around the world, giving it an extensive distribution network and the ability to capitalize on global music trends. This international presence enables UMG to generate revenue from various regions simultaneously.
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Strong Brand and Reputation: With a long history and established reputation in the industry, UMG benefits from brand recognition that attracts both artists and consumers. This brand equity aids in negotiating contracts and partnerships.
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Ownership of a Vast Catalog: UMG controls an extensive catalog of music, including many iconic recordings. This ownership not only brings in consistent revenue from royalties but also creates opportunities for licensing, merchandising, and partnerships.
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Innovative Technology and Distribution: UMG has invested in technology and partnerships with digital platforms (like Spotify and Apple Music) to enhance its distribution capabilities. This strategic positioning allows UMG to remain at the forefront of the shifting landscape in music consumption.
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Robust Marketing and Promotion Strategies: The company excels in marketing and promoting its artists and their music, leveraging data analytics, social media, and targeted advertising to maximize reach and engagement.
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Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: UMG has established various partnerships with tech companies, brands, and other industry players, which enable it to enhance its offerings and create cross-promotional opportunities.
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Vertical Integration: UMG’s operations encompass many aspects of the music industry, including talent management, publishing, and live events. This vertical integration allows for better control over the entire music value chain.
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Investment in Talent Development: UMG emphasizes scouting and nurturing new talent, ensuring a steady pipeline of emerging artists that can become the next big names in the industry.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Universal Music Group NV positions itself effectively in the competitive landscape of the music industry, ensuring sustained growth and market leadership.
Universal Music Group NV (UMG) faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can significantly affect its operations and growth. Here are some of the key factors to consider:
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Digital Distribution and Streaming Competition:
- The music industry is heavily reliant on streaming platforms, and UMG faces intense competition from other major labels and independent artists. The rise of new and emerging streaming services could threaten market share.
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Changing Consumer Preferences:
- Consumers are increasingly shifting towards niche genres and independent artists, which may challenge UMG’s ability to attract and retain listeners. Adapting to evolving tastes requires continual investment in talent and marketing.
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Intellectual Property and Copyright Issues:
- Navigating complex copyright laws and protecting intellectual property rights remain significant challenges. The rise of user-generated content platforms complicates how copyright laws are applied in the digital environment.
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Economic Factors:
- Economic downturns or recessions can impact consumer spending on music, concerts, and merchandise. UMG must strategize to mitigate the financial effects of global economic challenges.
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Technological Advances:
- The rapid pace of technological changes in music consumption (like AI and virtual reality) requires UMG to innovate continually. Failing to adapt could lead to a loss of relevance in the marketplace.
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Artist Relations and Contracts:
- Retaining top talent and negotiating favorable contracts are ongoing challenges. High-profile artists seeking more control or alternative financing arrangements can impact UMG’s revenue streams.
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Global Market Variability:
- UMG operates in various international markets, and political, cultural, or regulatory changes can affect operations and profitability. Localization strategies may be necessary but can be complex and resource-intensive.
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Impact of Social Media:
- While social media can be a tool for promotion, it also presents challenges regarding public relations, artist image management, and potential backlash from controversial content.
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Pandemic Recovery:
- The lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, including changes in live event dynamics and merchandise sales, continue to pose uncertainties. UMG must navigate the evolving landscape of live performances and fan engagement.
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Regulatory and Legal Risks:
- Changes in regulations governing the music industry, such as antitrust laws and data privacy legislation, can impact how UMG operates and its revenue models.
In conclusion, UMG must navigate a complex landscape of challenges while leveraging its strengths in talent management, content creation, and market presence to sustain growth and profitability. Continuous adaptation and strategic foresight will be crucial for the company in the near future.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Universal Music Group NV
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Universal Music Group NV
Current Assets | 4.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 457m |
Receivables | 2.4B |
Other Current Assets | 1.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 11B |
Long-Term Investments | 2.9B |
PP&E | 652m |
Intangibles | 6.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 576m |
Current Liabilities | 7.2B |
Accounts Payable | 5.6B |
Short-Term Debt | 24m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.5B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.3B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 2.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Universal Music Group NV
Revenue
|
11.5B
EUR
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-6.5B
EUR
|
Gross Profit
|
5B
EUR
|
Operating Expenses
|
-3.4B
EUR
|
Operating Income
|
1.6B
EUR
|
Other Expenses
|
-35m
EUR
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Net Income
|
1.5B
EUR
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Universal Music Group NV
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
Universal Music Group saw a 10% revenue increase and an 11% rise in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2024, marking its 12th consecutive quarter of high single-digit revenue growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin also expanded to 22.1%. Despite a slowdown in streaming and subscription growth, merchandising revenue surged by 44% due to strong direct-to-consumer and touring sales. Net profit for H1 2024 jumped to EUR 914 million, up from EUR 625 million in H1 2023, with earnings per share rising to EUR 0.50 from EUR 0.34. UMG remains optimistic about future growth, focusing on product innovation and strategic partnerships to enhance long-term success.
What is Earnings Call?
UMG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Universal Music Group NV's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Universal Music Group NV's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
UMG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Universal Music Group NV's solvency score is 50/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Universal Music Group NV's solvency score is 50/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
UMG Price Targets Summary
Universal Music Group NV
Shareholder Yield
Current shareholder yield for UMG is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
UMG Price
Universal Music Group NV
Average Annual Return | -0.46% |
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 8.87% |
Max Drawdown | -38% |
Market Capitalization | 42.8B EUR |
Shares Outstanding | 1 829 040 000 |
Percentage of Shares Shorted |
N/A
|
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Universal Music Group NV engages in the music entertainment business. The company is headquartered in Hilversum, Noord-Holland. The company went IPO on 2021-09-21. The firm is focused on the discovery and development of artists and songwriters and the marketing, promotion, distribution, sales and licensing of audio and audio-visual content. Universal Music Group BV includes music publishing companies Universal Music Publishing Group. Its recorded music catalog consists more than three million recordings includes a wide array of performers such as ABBA, Louis Armstrong, The Beatles, The Beach Boys, The Bee Gees, Ariana Grande, Imagine Dragons, Lady Gaga, James Brown, Bon Jovi, Neil Diamond, Marvin Gaye, Drake, Billie Eilish, Eminem, Selena Gomez Guns N’ Roses, Elton John, Bob Marley, Paul McCartney, Nirvana, Luciano Pavarotti, Queen, The Rolling Stones, Frank Sinatra, U2, Amy Winehouse and Stevie Wonder among others.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one UMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 23.21 EUR.
Compared to the current market price of 23.4 EUR, Universal Music Group NV is Overvalued by 1%.