Flughafen Wien AG
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Okay. So ladies and gentlemen, welcome to our conference call for the first 9 months of 2021 of Vienna Airport. Today's presentation will be held by our Board members, Mr. Günther Ofner; and Mr. Julian Jäger. [Operator Instructions]. As you might have noticed, the call will be recorded and will be available on our website shortly. With regards to the slides of the presentation that will be held now, these are also available on our website under Presentations.
And now I would like to hand over to our CFO, Mr. Ofner. Please go ahead, sir.
Good afternoon, and good morning and best regards from Vienna. We today presented our third quarter results. And the good news in regard of our balance sheet and our financial results is that we are very close to breakeven with loss in the net result of only EUR 0.1 million. And what we see is that passenger numbers are going up constantly since beginning of July. And also, we see again discussions about measures to combat COVID-19. We have not been severely affected so far in the last days or weeks. And what we hear from the airlines is that Christmas traveling should be rather intense.
So we could slightly improve our passenger guidance from 10 million in Vienna to more than 10 million in Vienna. And overall, we expect the passenger numbers in the range of 10 million to 13 million, including Malta and Kosice.
If you look at the financial results, and this is also part of our guidance, we can be very sure that we reach a positive net result for year. And some of you who looked at figures from analysts, were maybe a little bit surprised that we did not fully meet the expected results, but you have to have in mind that our third quarter results do not include our transaction with a new investor, and these results to roughly EUR 7 million profit from the sale of land. And it does also not include all the subsidies we expect from the COVID-19 support of the Austrian government. So in putting that into account, we are pretty sure that we will see the positive net result.
So overall, revenue will come around EUR 380 million, maybe slightly above, an EBITDA at roughly EUR 150 million, also maybe slightly above. And as we saw already in the third quarter, a positive net cash flow, our net debt for sure will decrease until the end of the year. Our investments will be around EUR 60 million, EUR 50 million in Vienna, EUR 10 million in Malta. What we always have to add under the current circumstances is that COVID-19 related interventions and trade barriers could somehow negatively affect the last 6 weeks of this year. Hopefully, it will not, but nobody can really predict what will happen.
So if we go to the revenue details, you see that revenue '20 and '21 is more or less the same. What you have to have in mind is that in the first 10 weeks of last year, we saw a very good growth of roughly 10% compared to '19 figures. And then the first problems mid of March started. And in the rest of the year, it was a very bad situation, as you might remember. This year, it was the other way around. So we had very weak traffic in the first 6 months and a relatively strong recovery in the third quarter.
Thanks to our successful cost savings program and the public subsidies we received, especially for short-term work, our EBITDA went up EUR 44 million from EUR 62 million to EUR 106 million. And our EBIT was minus 43.6% last year and is now with 6.9% in the positive. Better financial results finally led to a net profit for the period of minus EUR 100,000. So it's more or less even.
What you see if you look at the following table is that we have been successful in reducing all major cost positions except depreciation, because that's not influenceable at all. But other operating expenses, personnel expenses and consumables and services used could be reduced. Our net debt position now is at EUR 201 million. And as shown in our guidance, will go down. What you cannot foresee is where exactly it will be end of the year. So let's see what the final 3 months will bring.
Free cash flow is at EUR 21.4 million positive compared to EUR 65.3 million negative last year. And clearly, CapEx is less than 50% of last year. On the other hand, equity went up slightly and is now with 64.1% in a very high ratio and shows the overall financial strength. And this is caused by the fact that, through depreciation, our balance sheet was cut slightly.
The share price development is still positive at 35% compared with January 2016, and still, we are able to outperform Fraport and Zurich. And I think that given the expectations for the next year for '22, that overall, we can be rather optimistic that the recovery of the aviation sector can be continued.
So if we conclude with the financial forecast, we see revenues around or above EUR 380 million, EBITDA around or above EUR 150 million, consolidated net profit around or above EUR 4 million, net debt around EUR 100 million and CapEx, around EUR 60 million.
Still, we are very vigilant in regard of the COVID-19 situation, and we are still operating our test facility. So we had more than 300,000 PCR and antigen tests since we opened last year. What is especially noticeable is that our airport region is growing very fastly. So a lot of new businesses are attracted and are interested to come to the airport, especially 1 investor who is buying roughly 24 hectares of land just nearby the airport. And we hope that within 2 years, the land will be developed and the distortions in the logistic chain the whole world is experiencing right now is supporting companies to settle down nearby the airport. And especially, they are in need of storage holes and room for logistic activities. And we have not seen so high interest ever before than is underway right now.
What is also very interesting is that DHL Air established its headquarters in our airport city, creating 54 new jobs. And they are not placing planes now to Vienna, but they are operating out of Vienna.
What is very, very essential in our strategy since 1 decade is to be 1 of the leading airports in regard of CO2 neutrality. Despite the current problems, we have not stopped our investments in doing so. And we are already constructing the biggest photovoltaic plant of Austria with a size of 24-hectare and 24 megawatts of peak performance, which will and should enter into operation already in April '22. And together with the 7 other plants we already operate on the roofs of buildings in the airport, we will have a total capacity of roughly 30 megawatts and will produce roughly 1/3 of the electricity we need. And so far, we are also shielded a little bit against the prices hiking, I think, right now on the electricity markets and we will definitely continue in that sense.
The last big step towards CO2 neutrality will be the conversion to district heating CO2-free, which will save roughly 10,000 tonnes of CO2 per year. And then only our fuel exposure is left. And therefore, it will be very likely that soon we get CO2 neutral for our operations.
So that's the important facts from my side. Thank you for your interest. And I hand over to Julian Jäger.
Thank you, Günther. Good afternoon. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to continue with the traffic development. I mean, overall, I think we had a very good development starting in June, then significant improvements in July, peaking so far in August. But still until this very day, we are, given the circumstances, pretty happy with the development we've seen in terms of passenger numbers. We are still above 50% compared to 2019. I think October was pretty good. And still, I'm very optimistic for the summer schedule 2022. Obviously, the situation in Austria is pretty grim in terms of new infections right now. So what we see today in Austria is that there's quite an alarming mood amongst the hotel operators mainly in the West of Austria because of the ski season, but to a certain extent as well in Vienna. So far, we don't see an impact. Actually, in the last 7 days, the passenger numbers in relative terms compared to 2019 were even increasing. As I said, we are still above 50%.
And therefore, our guidance of 10 million roughly in Vienna and 12 million to 13 million in the group is very solid. But it's obvious that given the circumstances, it's pretty difficult to have a good feeling about December. I'm very optimistic for the high season in -- over Christmas. I would say the first half of December is a question mark, but we feel very safe in terms of our 10 million Vienna guidance. If we are along the lines what we've seen so far in November, it could be a bit more as well, but we feel the 10 million pretty safe.
In the group in the first 3 quarters, we were pretty much in line with the 2020 figures, but as Günther said, in a completely different scenario, obviously seat load factors are significantly below 2019. Cargo is below 2019, but 20% above 2020. So overall, a pretty consistent picture in the group of Vienna, Malta and Kosice.
I mean I would like to take this opportunity to answer the first question which was posted in terms of strategic opportunities to invest. We still stick to our strategy in terms of other airports than outside of Vienna, Malta and Kosice -- that we are not interested to buy additional airports. The only airport where if there would -- at any time in the future if an opportunity would arise we would be interested in, is Bratislava Airport, but that's not on the horizon at this point in time. And therefore, we are not still not interested to buy any other airports.
Let's continue with the next slide. I think what is probably interesting is that in the first 9 months of this year, Austrian, Ryanair and Wizz Air are the 3 top airlines in Vienna. Austrian with a market share of above 50%. I can tell you that this picture changed a bit in the peak season. So if I look at the third quarter only, Austrian has a market share of roughly 45% and the whole market of Lufthansa Group, therefore, is a bit above 50%.
Ryanair and Wizz Air are in the third quarter and right now, roughly 30% market share and the other airlines have a 20% market share, which is significantly below 2017 to '19. And obviously, what we feel there is that Asia is still very difficult. And many other markets are not operating to the same extent as we used to see there. So I would expect that roughly a market share of 50% Lufthansa Group, 30%, the low-cost carriers and 20%, the other carriers is probably a likely scenario for 2022 as well.
October was not bad, I would say. In Vienna, we were -- we had 1.6 million passengers, so even better than July, down roughly 45% over 2019. Local passengers, and this is obviously driven by the low-cost carriers, pretty good. 60% of the 2019 level transfer passengers, 47% of the 2019 levels. But I think in the months to come and definitely starting from next summer schedule, I think transfers should get a boost from the opening up of the U.S. market. We've already seen, in the last couple of months, good loads on Air Canada, which is flying to Toronto. Austrian has started Montreal on the 1st of October. And this is obviously a market which should drive transfer traffic because we've got pretty stable and strong traffic patterns from Eastern and Southeastern Europe to North America.
Obviously, a worry for the airlines is still the seat load factor. We've seen some improvements in the summer months. Still, even in October, we are 10 percentage points below 2019 levels, about 24 percentage points above 2020 levels. So overall, I would say we are on the right track and still cargo is decent with a growth of 26% with a decrease of 7% over 2019. But again, we are almost on the 2019 levels, and therefore, this is a good development.
What we've seen so far is a good winter flight plan, I would say, for us. We've seen that the Ryanair, that Wizz Air, that Austrian added a very significant number of new destinations. I think overall, we are almost 90% of the precrisis level in terms of destinations. Obviously, the frequencies are not on the same level. We are happy that Etihad started, despite the crisis, Vienna. We are seeing that Austrian has a strong focus on sun and sea destinations in the winter, so they're opening Cancun. Maldives are doing very well. So it seems that there's a strong -- those people who can afford will go in droves now to the Caribbean or the Indian Ocean. So I think this -- Austrian should have a pretty good winter business in these regions. And then obviously, we waited very long for the U.S. to open up for vaccinated European travelers. And therefore, we should see some positive movement there as well, definitely by summer schedule.
Looking at Ryanair, they've announced 10 new destinations for the winter schedule. They've announced another 6 new destinations for the summer schedule, very strong for the summer schedule, very strong Italian focus plus Manchester and winter, it's a mix of Middle East with Amman; Lappeenranta in Finland; and then a bit of Eastern Europe, Gdansk, Kosice, Banja Luka and a bit of some with Agadir and Pisa. So overall, it seems that Ryanair is on the same track as all over Europe, all over Europe, true if anybody has seen the latest anchor report. They've increased their market share very significantly in the intra-European traffic. They've got a market share here from now -- of 16% of intra-European routes, up from roughly 10%, so very significant growth. And this is what they are saying they want to do next year in summer as well. They are talking about 5 additional aircraft in Vienna, which does not mean that they will actually start and land in Vienna, but I think it's a good sign and it shows in my perspective, that we will be in 2022 as well, a major area where Ryanair and Wizz Air -- I think in the end, Vienna is one ground where Ryanair wants to slow down the growth of Wizz Air in Western Europe. And this is my impression from this year as well that with -- that Ryanair has a strong focus of adding capacity wherever Wizz Air is flying to.
From November onwards, from now on essentially, Wizz Air will have a pure A321 fleet. Obviously, a very significant increase in seat capacity. In my expectation, they will put another aircraft in Vienna -- into Vienna in summer 2022. They added some frequencies at some destinations and added some new destinations now in winter as well: Marrakech, Amman, Akaba and Sharm El Sheikh. So Middle East, plus sun and sea. So overall, as I said, I'm optimistic for summer '22. And let's see how the next few months will be impacted by the high figures -- the high COVID figures in Austria. But as I said, so far, we don't see it in our passenger numbers.
Whoever is looking at OAG data, don't get too excited about it. The OAG, in my point of view, has too many seats in the summer schedule for Vienna. Nevertheless, I'm optimistic for summer '22, and we will give you an update in January about our [ seated ] expectations for the traffic in 2022. But OAG is most of the times, I would say, they're not accurate, and they are probably putting in too many seats for 2022.
Yes, one word in terms of infrastructure. I think overall, we are very happy with our operational performance right now. We have a punctuality with [ our home care ] of more than 90% throughout the weeks, sometimes a bit below, sometimes a bit above that, but on average, roughly 90%. And this despite the still very strict COVID measures, which people have to endure when they enter Austria.
We are operating right now Terminal 3 and Terminal 1 and a very small part of Terminal 2. From summer schedule next year, we will open Terminal 2 fully, and we'll operate pier East and West as well, to be prepared for the hopefully strong summer season in Vienna in 2022.
Let's move on. As I said, in the group, 12 million to 13 million passengers is our forecast for 2021 and above 10 million in Vienna. This is something where we don't see any reason to change this.
Finally, a few words regarding our segments. I think the Airport segment has done reasonably well given the circumstances. We had, in terms of external revenue in the first 3 quarters, essentially on the same lines as 2020: insignificant reduction. EBITDA is up to EUR 45 million, EBIT minus EUR 14 million.
We see now at -- or we look at an increase of our airport charges in 2022 by 1.75%. As we've told you before, there's an amendment of the law in Austria, which essentially says that we should be in a position, unless we have a very significant traffic growth, until 2026 to grow our airport charges by inflation.
Let's continue with the Handling & Security Services. Here, we see a reduction in revenue compared to 2020 by 7%. EBITDA is essentially 0 down EUR 13 million -- it was minus EUR 13 million in the first 3 quarters of 2020. EBIT minus 7 million and -- compared to EUR 20 million (sic) [ minus EUR 20 million ] in 2020. This is obviously the area where it's hardest to get to a flat 0 again. I mean, this is a very tough environment, as you know.
We are trying to cut costs here as much as possible. We were down on material by about 34.9%; staff expenses down by roughly 20%. So we are trying hard to breakeven here, and this is definitely the target for the next 2 years when we expect a significantly higher passenger number to bring this segment into profitability as well.
And the last segment or the third segment, Retail & Properties. Parking is down 3% versus 2020, rentals is essentially on par with 2020 and center management and hospitality is down 10%. We see external revenue, which is down overall by roughly 5%. EBITDA, which has increased by 27% up to EUR 35 million and an EBIT of EUR 20 million, up from EUR 13.5 million in 2020.
The picture we see in the center management and hospitality is that still those passengers who travel spend more than they used to, but we missed the real high spenders from Asia, from China, from Russia, mainly. Obviously, we have less passengers from the Arabian Peninsula as well. So this is what on average hurts us, although I'm pretty happy with the development in the duty free. F&Bs are doing well and specialty retailers, in particular, very, very difficult. I think this is the area where we feel most the lack of passengers from East Asia, plus the bank. So as you can imagine, there are very few passengers which need or much fewer passengers than we used to have who do some foreign exchange transactions at the airport, which used to be a very good business for us. So that's why we are down here in this area.
We don't have empty space right now. We will have 3 new outlets to rent out in the next few months in the specialty retail area launching, and so here we are having a lot of discussions. Right now, there is not a single shop empty at the airport and what we are doing now is to improve the F&B offer. So we've recently opened a new Dean & David in the arrival hall. We will open a new Manner-Shop, or we have already opened a new Manner-Shop in Terminal 3. We've got -- we've opened a new AIDA Café in Terminal 3. And we will add -- not add, but we will change the main restaurant in our arrivals hall to a Wolfgang Puck Kitchen & Bar. The Hollywood star chef is returning to Austria where he started off many decades ago and is opening his first restaurant in Vienna at Vienna airport.
Malta is doing well. I mean, Malta was struggling even in summer compared to many other sun and sea destinations, but now in autumn, they are doing very well. Overall, I think we can be happy with the result of the first 3 quarters. External revenue EUR 32 million, EBITDA EUR 16 million and an EBIT of EUR 6 million. The personnel expenses fell by 21% to EUR 4.6 million due to lower average headcount and cost savings and the COVID wage subsidies from the government.
Again, we have a very good relation with Maltese government, which is supporting the tourism sector in the airport wherever they can. And therefore, I'm optimistic as well for next year. Malta is one of the European countries with the highest vaccination rate. So the fourth wave in Malta so far is pretty mild. And therefore, I'm optimistic here for the next month to come. And that's been -- definitely for next summer as well.
That's it for the time being from my end, and I'm looking forward to our discussion now.
[Operator Instructions] To start it off to kick it off, I will ask the first question out of the chat, which has been asked and which might be of interest to everyone here in this call. The estimated time and pathway for reinstatement of the dividend. To Mr. Ofner, when will we pay dividends again?
Yes, I mean, from today's perspective, I would assume that for the business year '22, we will pay out a dividend. And given the fact that we -- and our shareholders now lost definitely a long period, we will discuss about the payout ratio, and there might be the possibility even to increase the payout ratio. So for '22, we are confident to be in the position to pay again dividend.
[Operator Instructions]
It's Ruxandra Haradau-Doser with Kepler Cheuvreux. I have 4 questions, please. First, you highlighted capacities of low-cost carriers, Ryanair's capacities are above the level of 2019 during the current winter flight schedule and Ryanair's CEO indicated significant capacity increases in Vienna next summer. Do you expect this trend in terms of low cost capacity to result in some shifts in the short-haul network of your main airline in Vienna, Austrian?
Second, looking at capacities to North America in the Lufthansa Group in Q4 relative to Q3, seat capacity are increasing quarter-over-quarter at Lufthansa Airline and Swiss but are decreasing at Austrian and Brussels. What are your thoughts on this? And how confident are you that long haul and transfer traffic could return to 2019 level in Vienna over the next years?
Third, there has been some deterioration in your Skytrax rankings this year. Do you think the driver for that is airport specific? Or is it due to the customer satisfaction deterioration at Austrian Airlines since the start of this crisis?
And finally, if travel restrictions were to intensify again, do you see potential for slot requirements to be waived again -- short term during the winter flight schedule? And what is your view on slot requirements during the next summer flight schedule?
Thanks a lot for your questions. In terms of low-cost carriers and Austrian for next summer, I don't think that this will have an impact on the short-haul network of Austrian Airlines. If it has an impact, I think it will have an optimistic or a positive impact for us. What Austrian Airlines has stated recently in the media is that they want to increase their leisure offer. They are putting a lot of capacity into Spain, in particular, Palma. And overall, I think they want to fight back on the sun and sea market, where everybody expects that the sun and sea market will be very strong next summer.
And 1 positive development as well, what we've seen in the last couple of days is that Condor announced that they will come back to Vienna. We had Condor before the crisis on the long-haul sun and sea sector, and they are now coming back next summer with sun and sea destinations within Europe. So I think, overall, there are some legacy carriers who want to add now capacity in the sun and sea market for next summer as well. And as I said, I don't think that Austrian Airlines would simply give up to the new capacity of Ryanair.
In terms of capacity -- long-haul capacity, I'm sure that Austrian will increase their capacity definitely by next summer to North America. Overall, we will see less capacity, long-haul capacity from Austrian Airlines in the years to come. They've reduced the fleet to 9 aircraft. So therefore, they can't have the same capacity as they used to have before the crisis. But what they are doing as well is to change the destinations a bit. I don't think that we will see Austrian Airlines again in LA. So I think the target of Austrian Airlines is to have a relative stable number in terms of seats by shifting destinations which are significantly further away than other destinations. So I think we will see additional capacity on the East Coast of North America, and we won't see LA again. And I would expect that for next summer, we will not see all the Asian destinations again. So therefore, I'm optimistic that we will see more capacity on North America.
Your third question in terms of Skytrax, I think this is a mix. So definitely, what does not help us right now in terms of passenger satisfaction are the very strict measures when entering Austria. This leads to queues. This leads to situations where people are -- yes, a lot of people are in 1 room waiting before passport control and waiting before the health inspections, which are done by the Austrian Army in for the Austrian Health authorities. I mean this doesn't help.
Secondly, we have closed Terminal 2. We have not operated Terminal -- pier East and West this summer. So we had -- at the peak, we had more passengers in Terminal 3 than in 2019. And I mean it's obviously to and this was part of our cost saving measures, otherwise, we would not be in a position to have a positive result this year. And yes, so obviously, cutting costs has an impact on quality. This will change by next summer, and this should not be a long-term effect. But this year, I think our passengers were impacted by the tight checks, which led to a lot of queues when entering Austria. This led to some transfer passengers as well, missing their flights, their connecting flights. And secondly, that we were not operating all the capacity in Vienna Airport.
In terms of slots, I mean, we will know more in a couple of days. Right now, there's the slot conference in Rome, and we should get the idea about the summer schedule here in the coming days and weeks. I mean what we know from Austrian Airlines is that they want to even out their wave system here in Vienna, which would be obviously good for us and should reduce the peak if they actually do it and how -- this is something we will find out in the coming weeks. What we've seen this year is that the peaks are very high. So we don't see the -- essentially, as an airport, there are more peaks than there used to be pre-COVID.
So the summer months are much stronger compared to the winter months. The freight Friday and Sunday are significantly stronger than the Tuesday and Wednesday. And overall, we see that the peaks in relative terms have grown very significantly. I hope this answers your questions.
So next on line, I can see Vladimira Urbankova from Erste Group.
Just I have only a few questions. One would be related to your reiterated positive net profit guidance. What are the assumptions behind? You mentioned that you basically included in it some one-off income, if you could summarize these one-offs you expect?
And then what would you assume will be your government support? And out of this, short-term work allowance as a full year support measure?
This is tacked to that, I would have also a question. If you should assume that this kind of government support could continue into 2022, especially as pandemic is still not over. So what are your expectations here?
And then next question would be just a bigger picture. Of course, this is a moving target. But how do you see the move in percentage numbers to both the pre-pandemic levels by year? That means in '22, how many -- how big a percentage out of 2019 is expected and when we get finally to 100% or above 100% of the 2019? So this would be my questions.
Maybe Günther, if you don't mind, I would start with the last question and then leave the other questions to you. I think it will take a number of years until we reach the 2019 levels. But what you have to see as well that 2019 for us was an exceptionally strong year. If you remember, we had in 2017, 24.4 million passengers; in 2019, 31.7 million passengers.
So I still think that what we've said even already last year for 2023, that the target would be roughly 80% of the 2019 levels is something which should be definitely doable. Then it might take another few years until we reach the 2019 level. I think nobody really knows, but I would not be surprised if it would -- if it would take until 2026, '27 or even '28 until 2019 levels. But I'm very optimistic that we will reach the 2017 level significantly before. And therefore, I still think that the 80% are very realistic for 2023.
Okay. And '22, if you maybe can add what is your estimate?
This is something we will give you in detail in January.
Mid of January, we will have our press conference with our expectations for '22. In regard of short-term work, yes, there is the possibility that we apply for it also in '22. So the legal framework right now goes up to end of June. So the maximum for now would be another 6 months. To what extent we will remain in the short work program is under discussion right now but not yet decided.
And regarding extra subsidies for fixed cost and lost turnover, unfortunately, I cannot give you an exact figure because we are right now in the process of fulfilling all the requests and determining to what extent we are eligible for the extra subsidies. But in any case, it will not be 0. So it will be a certain amount. I would assume a single-digit million amount that finally will be the result. When exactly we will be able to book the transaction from the land purchase is connected with formalities, as you know. And we are right now processing these formalities. And maybe it's possible to include it this year or it will be shifted to the first quarter of next year. We are working on the issue and let's see how far we come.
I was just interested if it's conditioned for you to achieve this EUR 4 million net profit. So because this is a relatively sizable amount. So is it a condition or not, you can achieve the EUR 4 million regardless?
It's not a condition, no.
Okay. So then this would be on the top of your estimated EUR 4 million?
It could something of -- it could be on top, yes.
Okay. Thank you. Any further questions?
Bernd speaking from RBI. One question, back to the state subsidies. Am I right, there's -- you booked now in the third quarter some fixed cost subsidies within the financial result, booking them against our financial expenses? Am I right to assume that this was the 1 or the other million euros, so a low single-digit [indiscernible]?
Yes. To be very precise, it is, to a certain extent, related to 2020. So it took a considerable time unless things have been clear. So we are still in the process of fulfilling all the requirements to include then also '21.
And one clarification to your answer to the previous question. You said we expect a further couple of millions of subsidies. Did you here refer to Q4 or to 2022?
If I would know, it would be fine. Hopefully, we can expect something for Q4 but it might be the case that it takes until the first quarter.
Is this in short time work or also some fixed cost subsidies we have various things in...
No, no short-term work is fully included. These are extra items, especially also related to daughter companies, so not only the FW AG, but also to our subsidies.
This can be again in the financial result as well that you book it against some operating expenses or as other operating income?
Both. Both.
Any other questions?
Yes, it's Andrew from HSBC. I'm sorry, this is a stupid question. How -- what's going on with the net debt guidance for '21? Is this a disposal which didn't go through? I mean, how did we get from EUR 200 to EUR 100 million?
It might not exactly end up with EUR 100 million.
That's got a big gap there. How are we getting there?
Yes. Let's see. You know we closed the books on the 31st of December. So let's see where we are exactly at that point in time. But if you followed our discussions and my answers before, you see that there are some items that are not still liquidated. So for example, only to give you a clue of it, the land sale is in total roughly EUR 24 million. And it could be the case that it is already flowing this year, was slightly in January or in February. So there are substantial volumes that can shift from here to there or backward.
And therefore, I'm still on the optimistic side that we will end up somewhere there. And as I said before, also in regard of state subsidies, there is always a very substantial time lag. So for example, the liquidity for the short-term work still is pending from April on. So there are 8 months pending in liquidating the receivables. And to what extent exactly this will be liquidated until the 31st of December I think nobody is able to exactly forecast that. But the cash is on the way somewhere sooner or later.
It's a combination of working capital moves, realistically, and disposal?
Yes.
Okay. So to finish off, I would like to ask 1 final question from the chats, which is given your comment on passenger numbers for 2023 being estimated at 80%, can you share thoughts on profitability relative to 2019 at that passenger level, assuming that COVID will leave some permanent changes to travel behavior? Very tricky.
I think this is definitely too early. So I would suggest, let's discuss in January our forecast for '22 and you will get our guidance there for the results in 2022 as well. I agree that there will be some changes in terms of the passenger profile. I think that we will see a long-term impact in terms of business passenger numbers. I hope that 2023 will have a normalized passenger flow between Europe and Asia and Europe and North America. And I would not take it as an estimation, I'm optimistic that 80% could be doable in '23. But I would ask for a bit of patience that we discuss these things in detail in the next year.
Okay. Thank you very much. That concludes today's session. Please highlight the 18th of January 2022 in your calendars for the traffic figures for 2021 and the forecast for 2022, and also stay tuned for our traffic figures for November 2021 in mid-December.
Gentlemen, thank you very much. All the best to all of you and stay healthy as usual. Thank you. Bye-bye.
Bye.
Bye. Thank you.