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FACC AG
VSE:FACC

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FACC AG
VSE:FACC
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Price: 5.8 EUR -1.86% Market Closed
Market Cap: 265.6m EUR
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Earnings Call Analysis

Summary
Q3-2023

Encouraging Outlook Amid Production Boost

The company is ramping up production, with the Boeing 787 set to increase from 4 to 12 airplanes per month by 2027, while the A350 will see a 60% rate increase to 10 per month. Investment in the Croatian plant expansion is underway, a EUR 20 million initiative expected to double productive hours, signaling strong future growth. Financials indicate a Q3 loss of EUR 10 million but an anticipated stronger Q4, keeping the full-year guidance steady with expected sales growth of 12-16%. The company confirms it is on the upper range of this guidance. Cash flow was negatively impacted by investments and working capital changes, but some costs, such as logistics and energy, are normalizing. A significant contract with Pratt & Whitney Canada marks a major opportunity for aviation's MRO sector, with effects likely visible by 2024.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2023-Q3

from 0
U
Unknown Executive

[Technical Difficulty] I'd like to especially welcome the management of the company who is going to present today's figures. So hello to you, Mr. Machtlinger; Mr. Starek; and Mr. Steirer. First of all, we're going to see a company presentation. And later on, there will be a Q&A session where you will have the opportunity to ask your questions.Yes, and with that, I hand over to Mr. Steirer for his introduction.

M
Michael Steirer
executive

Thank you, Mr. [ Jeking ]. Good morning to everyone. Welcome to FACC's Earnings Call in regard to the Q3 Fiscal Year 2023. My name is Michael Steirer and together with me, as already mentioned, are Robert Machtlinger, our CEO; as well as Ales Starek, our CFO.Earlier this morning, we have already provided some detailed information in our press release. So in case of any detailed information, you will see it up there. And in case it shouldn't be possible to address all questions in today's call due to some time constraints, we would be happy to receive some information afterwards, and then we will be able to arrange some meetings in addition in order to clarify everything.I think now I will turn the call over to Robert Machtlinger, our CEO. Thank you.

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. Robert Machtlinger speaking. Thank you for joining the early morning call. As Michael already mentioned, we have published our results, and I would like to guide you through a couple of slides.If we can go to the highlights in our Q3. Overall, I would say, the top line is developing as planned. So we have seen, over the first 9 months of the fiscal year, a 22.5% growth compared to the previous year which is pretty much in line with our rate expectations during the year. However, the operational performance was impacted, especially in the third quarter for a couple of reasons. I will talk about this a little bit more in detail.First of all, one was a seasonality effect, which is not [ unnormal ]. I have to say, we always know that the month of July and August has a lower demand in our industry because of certain company shutdowns also with our customers worldwide. So this again happened this year, as said, not unexpected and pretty much in line with our expectations. Rate increases still confirmed, however, and as you all know, with some adjustments to the current global supply chain situation, so unchanged.The demand for airplanes is higher than the supply. So airlines asked for earlier deliveries of airplanes. But due to some constraints globally, the rates are still picking up, but not in the speed as airlines want to see that. Also nothing changed, I think, to the previous quarters. However, we see a stabilization after some rate adjustments have been done in the half -- first half year of 2023. We have not had too many indications of additional changes. So we are assuming, based on today's input and global environment, that those rates ramp ups probably can be executed.So the environment still remains difficult. Challenging still is the supply chain of certain materials and commodities. There is not one reason, I would say. If we just talk FACC, we are currently having a little bit more than 500 suppliers worldwide. We see a step-by-step improvement. However, some of our suppliers are still struggling with the ramp-up. We're helping them, as you will see in Ales' slides, also by level loading and keeping a little bit more inventory to protect us, but also our customers. Nevertheless, we see slight improvement. However, there is always the one or the other surprise just if we look into the ongoing crisis we are recognizing in Israel and Gaza, not impacting FACC too much. However, we also have one supplier there, we are currently working on risk mitigations.Overall, recruitment, which is, of course, an important thing, we are ramping up our staff with the end of Q3. We have 3,294 full-time equivalent on board. This is good, I have to say, because some other people are more struggling with personnel recruitment. We don't have that issue at the time being. We also have a little bit -- we are a little bit ahead of our recruitment. So in terms, I can give you the numbers, 175 people in the workers' environment are already onboard, above the current production output requirement. Why is that? This is uncontrolled, and intentionally. We need to train our people, we need to qualify our people to aerospace standards. We have ramp-ups in front of us, and we have to deal with it. So I would say the positive news, we are able to attract people. We are onboarding globally, but also mainly in Austria. Training is performing well, and those people will be available for [ monitoring ] of further ramp-ups. However, especially in Q3, we saw output personnel costs in relation to total cost, of course, went up because sales have been low. This will turn around already. So September, October, already showed good pickup in revenues. And Ales and I will talk a little bit on the Q3 -- Q4 and full year forecast.Significant airplane deals are ongoing. So airlines are buying airplanes, not only short and mid-haul airplanes like single-aisle like A320s and 737s. So we also see the wide-body aircraft coming back. So quite significant sales on the A350 and the Boeing 787. This is important for FACC as well because before the crisis in 2019, FACC had a revenue of EUR 0.25 billion with the A350 and 787 combined. As you all remember from the previous calls, we had significant impact in terms of revenue generation because those airplanes did not produce at high rate. The 787 was on a production pause most of last year. Right now, we see a constant pickup in rates. This certainly is supporting FACC and we see organic growth from programs we already had on board and still having on board in the next period to come. A little bit more specific on rates and the meaning to FACC on a later slide.Also positive Croatian extension groundbreaking was executed as planned. We are currently extending the facility and the floor space -- extra floors. This will be available for production in the second quarter of 2024. Also explained and positive for FACC, especially in our MRO segment, we have been able to sign up a multiyear significant contract with Pratt & Whitney Canada for the overhaul of engine composites. So this is a long-term contract on a specific engine family of Pratt & Whitney. Good business for us and having significant volume potential starting in 2024.If you go into the next slide, development of the divisions. All divisions are growing, quite promising Aerostructures with a 27% growth between the most difficult year 2021, Q3 and 2023, Q3. As you all know, from history, Aerostructures is the best-performing division of FACC with EBIT potential. So this growth is good and also good keeping you, let's say, reminded the COVID impact in Aerostructures was the most severe in FACC. We lost 46% of revenue and a significant portion already is recovered.Engines & Nacelles, 10% growth, a little bit less steep. Again, this is driven by the A350 and 787, which are the major platforms in our Engines & Nacelles business. Well, positive, the revenues are picking up. And with the continuous growth on the A350, 787 rates in the next periods to come, we also will see a more steeper recovery on the Engines & Nacelles side.And Interiors are pretty much following the trend of the last couple of years, 18% growth, mainly driven by the A320 family, which is the backbone of our business, but also business jets for Embraer and Bombardier are picking up quite significantly in rates.So overall, all divisions are growing in line with the market, in some areas a little bit faster than the rest of the market because of new programs we brought on board.Unchanged picture on the next page on airplane demand. I will not go into the details. You know the chart, we have talked about this chart in our H1. This is a long-term chart and no change at the time being.Next slide, airplane platform requirements. We already talked a little bit, and you all know A320 family is the most important platform in FACC. We are ramping up this platform as we speak, in line with our customers. We are not the source of any delays, I have to say. So we are on time, on quality. This is important, I think, for us. From today end 2026, we will see another 35% rate increases out of the current established business we already have on board. What we see currently on this A320, there is a shift in the cabin. As you all know, FACC is doing most of the floor to floor cabin for the A320 family, all categories.The latest configuration, which was the so-called Airspace configuration is the higher-value configuration for that airplane. This configuration right now is sold better to the market, even increasing the volume in FACC above the history because the enhanced cabin as we have produced it more than 10,000 times in the last 15 years is ramping down at the same time, positive.And I want to talk a little bit on the widebody families. The 2 significant platforms here is the Airbus A350 and the Boeing 787. Before the crisis, the 787 produced at the rate of 14 [ ship sets ] a month. the A350 had a rate per month of 10 [ ship sets ]. We all know that 787 was in a production pause all of last year, we only delivered 22 airplane sets. This is right now stabilizing. The Boeing 787 between today and the end of 2027, will ramp up to a rate of 12 airplanes from currently a little bit more than 4, we are producing at the time being. So significant increase in demand there, helping our Engines & Nacelles business to ramp up in output and utilization as well.The A350, not as steep as a requirement because the A350 certainly dropped during the COVID-19 crisis in rate by half. So from 10 down to 5. We are currently producing at a rate of 6 plus/minus a month. This rate will step up by 60% to a rate to 10 by 2027, again, benefiting our Engines & Nacelles business, and especially our utilization in Plant 4. So this is positive. It's organic growth without additional investment because we already produce those platforms at high rate. And I'm glad that we can ramp up again also besides the single-aisle business and the business [indiscernible] business on the widebody segment as well.FACC Croatia plant extension, we talked about just very briefly, it's a EUR 20 million investment we are going for in the next 3 quarters of a year. We are expanding the site by another 12,500 square meters supporting our strategy to move a significant portion of the Interiors business from Upper Austria to Croatia, benefiting from the labor cost savings. The equipment and facilities in Upper Austria will be used for Aerostructures, basically on new programs. So that's the good thing. Overall, by 2026, our Croatian hub will run at roughly 600 employees, just giving a little bit of a heads-up based on our current insight into 2024, the productive hours in our Croatian facility will double next year from today's number. So Croatia is nicely picking up and we start to harvest on the benefits of our investments.A little bit details on our Pratt & Whitney Canada cooperation and contract. What we have signed up is basically a global worldwide deal for Pratt & Whitney Canada doing engine fan case overhaul and repair for the Pratt & Whitney 800 turbofan engines. The Pratt & Whitney 800 engine is one of the most successful engines in the business jet area. FACC is doing composite parts for that engine already as an original equipment supplier. Once engines are returning back to maintenance and services, FACC will be a strong partner to Pratt & Whitney, being responsible as an exclusive partner on the engine case overall and repair. This is a multimillion sized contract spanning over the next 5 years. So good access, I think, to the market, and it's completing our strategy of being a turnkey supplier from development, R&D, OEM production, but also aftermarket support.While I'm saying that, I would like to hand over to Ales, giving you a little bit more insight on the financials.

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Thank you, Robert, and good morning to everybody on the call.Let's go to the next slide on revenues and EBIT. And what you see here again is a nice illustration of the revenue profile that we have. In 2023, we are getting more to the regular pattern of seasonality in terms of revenues, while the 2022 was still a quarter-by-quarter increase, and in revenues, now we are basically returning to the traditional pattern. So you'll see a [ slow ] Q1 in terms of revenues and then a strong Q2, and then basically, in Q3, we are getting back to the levels that we've seen in Q1.Overall, on a Q3-to-Q3 comparison, it's a slight increase from EUR 149 million to EUR 159 million. That decrease in sales is basically, I'll say the volumes, the EUR 159 million has been driven by a very weak July and August in terms of sales and also in terms of profitability. September was a better month, was a good month, kind of a starting point of the year and raise in terms of aircraft delivery and also our production. However, the September could not make up for the losses of the summer months. So we ended up the quarter with a loss of EUR 10 million, which is a little bit less than some of you expected. However, it's within the range that we have actually projected and expected. So no need to be excited about that number. We are expecting a stronger Q4 and as we have always been telling. So therefore, basically, our guidance for the full year is unchanged.On the next slide, we turn attention to the free cash flow. And here you see that basically, we have still consumed cash in Q3. The cash consumption is primarily driven by the increase in investments on one hand side, investments in Croatia. That's a big portion of the EUR 14.2 million. Secondly, it's been driven by what we call here on that side, the changes in working capital, the minus EUR 55 million. When we go to the next slide, you'll see that basically the working capital in a tighter sense, when we look at inventories, accounts receivables and payables, the working capital actually remained unchanged. So we are running a kind of flat working capital situation since actually Q1.The step-up that we see here on the cash flow side, when you go back in time and then you see the Q2, then you will see that there was a EUR 47 million. So the EUR 47 million cash consumption in Q2 versus the EUR 55 million cash consumption in Q3, the EUR 7 million is primarily driven by other short-term working capital elements, basically capitalizations of engineering development related to milestone payments. And that's a little bit giving you a hint on Q4. So those EUR 7 million that we have spent on engineering and capitalized is related basically to our urban mobility projects. And in the urban mobility projects, they have a very short time lag between the cost and then actually the invoicing and the payments. So all of the EUR 7 million that we have spent on development in the summer time, will be invoiced in Q4 and also paid by our customers in Q4. So that's the cash flow picture in Q3 with a little bit of an outlook on Q4.When we go on the next slide, then basically -- and this is what you see on the right-hand side, the net working capital as calculated as inventories, accounts receivables and payables is pretty much flat. And actually, it slightly improved in Q3 from EUR 175 million to EUR 172 million. On the right -- on the left-hand side, in terms of investments, you see basically the EUR 14.2 million; the increase in investments in fixed assets, it was EUR 3.1 million year-to-date in Q2. It's 14.2% in Q3 and then a big portion of this EUR 11 million has been invested in Croatia.On the reclassifications and additions into contract costs, which is basically the engineering expenses for our core business of our commercial aviation business also increased. So we do develop not only the UAV business, we also develop our core business, and we have added another EUR 1.6 million in engineering expenses or development expenses to our core programs.Coming to the last page, with the financials, the net debt and the leverage. The net debt, basically after the improvement in Q2, bounced back to the levels of Q1. That's again within the range of our expectations. And for the end of the year, we expect we will be in the same area of net debt as we have been in Q2. So basically, it's kind of a reverse pattern that you see on the sales. The reverse pattern is what we see on the net debt.With that, I would basically hand over back to Robert and to the outlook.

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Thank you very much, Ales. Well, I think we talked a little bit already on the outlook in the end. Basically, as Ales already said, and we confirm the guidance with no change. We still see a sales growth of 12% to 16% year-on-year. Customer demands are booked, and we are delivering and, as Ales said, Q4 will be closer to Q2 actually. We focus on industry ramp-up. We are still working heavily in close collaboration with our supply chain partners worldwide. We still have teams on site on critical supplies and, on some areas, we are setting up double sourcing, just to protect future ramp-ups. Also positive is we see increasing learning curve from the new trained staff. So this will benefit us mostly in 2024. So there will be some effect in the last quarter, but the significant upstream effects, we see during the course of 2024.Well, efficiency is increasing on new programs as well. We are coming into rates at the time being, especially on the Airbus 320 and on the new cabin configurations for business jet applications. So here we see a normalization and the improvements are pretty much in line with our planning.As Ales said, focus on cash flow and profitability, we are driving by increasing by optimized working capital. As said again, we're currently holding quite a lot of safety stock. We will burn this down step-by-step in line with the stabilization of the supply chain. We need to protect ourselves from [ stop-and-go ], but we also need to protect our customers from any impact. Still, there is a high inflation, as we all know, especially in Europe and Central Europe. We are in close contact with our partners; partners here is intentionally because we talk to our suppliers in terms of what we can do to mitigate price adjustments or cost adjustments but we also have good and fair discussions with our customers in terms of readjustments of our contract pricing, including inflation compensation.Also good thing is here, and I would like to mention that some cost drivers are normalizing. As you all know, 2022 was heavy cost increases in terms of global logistic costs. Global logistic costs, we see normalizing, not fully back to 2019, '20 levels, but close to it. Energy costs, certainly is on the way down, also not fully back to the previous numbers, but significantly reduced to the 2022 all-time high. Also worthwhile to mention, energy cost, of course, is a factor for FACC but we've done a lot in sustainable energy generation and the energy costs, the total cost in relation to producing or the revenue is in the very low single-digit percentage. So it's a factor, of course, but not troubling our business.We also are benefiting from the industry development. We are very active with our customers on potential work packages. As soon as we have something concluded, certainty we will put out.And in saying that, I would like to close our presentation and give the floor to [ Panu ] for answering your questions. Thank you for your attention.

U
Unknown Executive

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from Mr. [ Marten ].

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes. Thank you for the presentation. My first question would be regarding investments because we've seen a strong uptick in Q3. And therefore, I would like to ask what are your expectations towards the fourth quarter?

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Yes. I think the -- as I said, the majority of the investments is related to our Croatian expansion. Overall, I would expect that -- and it was approximately EUR 11 million in Q3. In terms of cash-out, Croatia will be a little bit lower than in Q3, we started the construction in Q3. So there was quite a lot of payments to the construction company related to the start of the construction. There will be some milestones payments as well. So overall, I would see that the overall investments in the year, we will end up slightly over EUR 20 million. So it should be probably another EUR 7 million, EUR 8 million in total investments in Q4.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And the second question is regarding the outlook because you already mentioned that you will be reimbursed for development costs with around EUR 7 million. And now I would also like to know if you expect any reimbursements or achievements for certain milestones in the fourth quarter?

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

So yes, the fourth quarter, and I think the result from the fourth quarter will be primarily driven by -- or let's say, primarily, there will be a combination of, of course, the underlying business volume increase. We're expecting, in terms of deliveries, a very strong Q4. And then additionally, it will be NRCs relating to milestones, the milestones that we have spent money on in Q3, and we have finalized now and additional milestones and additional settlements with our customers. Yes. So it will be a combination of the 3 elements; business volume increase, settlement of NRCs, and settlements of claims with customers.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And the final question I would have is regarding the Pratt & Whitney contract. And here, I would add, if you could attach a number to it, which revenues are you expecting early?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Well, the revenue stream will increase. We know what the demand will be. I need to apologize, we have agreed with Pratt & Whitney not to disclose the value of the contract at the time being. We will follow up at the right time. But I can tell you, it's definitely a double-digit million revenue over 5 years, double-digit started 11 and ended 99, I'm sorry, I cannot be more specific at the time being. So it's certainly a sizable contract in our MRO area and if we talk single contract in the MRO, it's the largest single contract we have signed up with any customer yet in the MRO business. So it's sizable. And I would say, during the course of 2024, I think with our reporting, you will see the effect of it. I'm sorry, I cannot be more specific because we agreed with our customer not to be specific.

U
Unknown Executive

And the next question comes from Miguel Lago.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Yes. First question from my side would be on top line development. You mentioned that you expect a strong Q4. I mean your sales guidance implies at the lower end, a 10% downturn in Q4. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit on what is baked in at the lower end for the full year sales guidance?

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Yes, I think the best way to address it is, if you look at it from the overall perspective, yes? And we are actually not looking at the lower end of the guidance. The, let's say, range that we have provided is actually very conservative. So what we expect is we will actually be more on the upper range of the sales guidance, maybe even slightly exceeding it at the end of the year. That's our expectation.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Okay. So you're expecting to exceed it at the upper end. So is that correct?

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

At the moment, yes. I mean it's a very dynamic environment at the moment. So that's why we basically tried to put a range on it. Today, we are moving right at the upper range, and there is some upside potential.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

All right. Then on profitability and, call it, compensation payments in Q3, is it correct that there were some payments as well in Q3 and we sill see some...

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

No.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Okay. So there were no payments in Q3, and we will see some EUR 7 million in Q4. Is that correct?

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Yes. Well, the EUR 7 million was relating to the NRCs, related to the milestones. What we do have is, on one hand side, as I said, we have the underlying business, we have NRCs. A big portion of the NRCs is milestones, and we have basically open claims with customers still. So as you -- if you look at that, we had that first wave of, let's say, inflation compensation settlements with customers in Q2, and there will be a second -- I do not want to call it a second phase, but there will be a second portion of additional inflation compensation settlements with customers in Q4. But there was no compensation settlements in Q3, and there was little NRC payments in Q3. Yes?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

And if you may allow me, I would not call it a claim because we are discussing and negotiating in good faith. So there is a broad understanding of the situation. So -- however, we need to do this during the next couple of weeks, finish it. So it's ongoing and still ongoing discussion. So it's...

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Settlements of inflation compensation. Let's call it that way. Yes?

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Okay. Quick follow-up, if I may. Can you maybe elaborate a little bit? I mean you touched upon it already, but maybe elaborate on the mechanism of those payments? I take from your remarks now that you sort of negotiated from quarter-to-quarter or maybe every 6 months. Is that the right way to approach it? Or is it something else?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Well, I think it's a mix, it's not one answer covering all discussions. There is settlements for [indiscernible] one-off because it's peaks as we had it in logistics, and rather normalizing and there is other ones where we are going for sustainable price adjustments because costs are high and will stay high at least or let's say, which they adjusted in the next couple of periods. So it's not to say it's a certain percentage across the business. It's a little bit depending on the portfolio. It's a little bit depending on the labor and material mix on the contracts. There is one-offs compensating us for extra cost we had to pay for in logistics and there is sustainable cost increases, which are linked to personnel cost increases, which once up, they will not go down. They will not disappear in the next period. So overall, this is ongoing discussions for 2023. It's more a quarterly or half year compensation in 2024. We rather see, let's say, adjustments in certain pricing going forward and less of a quarter-to-quarter compensation because we all are expecting a more normalized environment. I hope that is answering your question.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Yes, pretty well. Two more from my side. First one would be on the MRO contract with Pratt & Whitney. How is this connected to the -- yes, the news we read over the couple of months concerning Pratt & Whitney and the engine generations, is that somehow linked? Or is it...

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

A bit different. The Pratt & Whitney 800 engine is a smaller engine, mainly used on business jet applications. And the other thing you're currently touching is a larger engine used on the A320 family, that's completely different, not related at all.

M
Miguel Lago Mascato
analyst

Okay. Okay. Then last one on the employee ramp-up. You mentioned something in your statement this morning that you're planning to ramp up 500 more employees over the next couple of months. which seemed very ambitious when I read it, but now that you mentioned you have sort of not that much of a problem ramping up or finding new workforce, seems reasonable, but still a large number. Can you maybe give us some more color on your long -- mid- to long-term employee ramp-up plan? So for this year, it will be roughly 500. What's planned for '24 and beyond? Is that sort of in the process right now? Or is it -- can you maybe elaborate?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

It's a continuous process. Thank you for [ answering ]. So giving a little bit of an insight, in 2022, within a year, we have increased our workforce by 400; 392, I think, was the exact number during 2022. In the first half of 2023, we added another 197 people. So bringing the number within 18 months to 600 new employees across FACC. At the time being, we are onboarding between 10 and 20 people every week. While onboarding the people in aerospace is certainly a major good step, first step, but those people need to train -- training, basic training, advanced training before they can be released to operational jobs. So well, in the next 8 to 10 months, we have a demand for another 300 to 500 people. So while 300 to 500, it's a little bit depending on the speed of learning curve, of course. So we are watching people development on a weekly and monthly basis. And well, if the learning curve is picking up faster, the demand is more going to be towards 300 to 400. If the learning curve is a little bit less steep, we might need another 100 on and above.So basically, reaction to our request on the labor market is very good. I also need to say that some industries are currently suffering from lower demand also in the neighborhood of FACC. And I also can say a big -- well, a portion of the people we unfortunately had to lay off in 2020 during the COVID crisis are rejoining FACC. So it's a bundle of activities we have started. And for the time being, it's not easy. So this is not a home run, I have to say, but we can attract people coming back or attract new people working for FACC.

U
Unknown Executive

Next, we got some -- a couple of questions in the chat box. The first one you might have already answered with your comments on Q4. But it is, you said October was a strong month and that you may receive extra price compensations from OEMs to cover inflation. In this case, why would you guide for 12% to 16% and an implied low growth in Q4? Maybe you can elaborate a bit on the price compensation.

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Yes. Thank you for the question. It wasn't October I was referring to. It was September because September was a very strong month. And as we already talked, as we discussed, let's say, it's a very dynamic environment when we were compiling this, we basically settled on 12% to 16%. Today, we basically see that it's a little bit on the higher side. So it's 16%, maybe even 16-plus, yes? So that's what we are looking at.The second question that you are asking for in terms of what percentage of the 12% to 16% increase is inflation compensation. So basically, what you are probably asking or what you would like to know is what part of the overall turnover that we realize in 2024 will be basically due to the inflation compensation with our customers. And what I would like to do here is maybe give you a little bit of a guidance how to get to that number. If basically, we look at it and we are really talking about indexations and then we see what is the percentage of personnel cost, what was the increases in there, what is the material cost increases, on the personnel cost, it's pretty transparent, you can think about it. I mean it's -- when you look at that, the personnel cost increases across the board in the world are around 6%, then our share of cost and in terms of total turnover is 30%. So it's 30% and 6%, which would be 1.8%. So 1.8% of the turnover is basically inflation compensation for personnel expenses.And then you take the material costs, you make an assumption for inflation and what your material cost is and then you get there. So it's pretty much top down -- top level. And then if you follow the calculation scheme, then you will be able to have a good estimation for that.

U
Unknown Executive

Very clear. [Operator Instructions] Another question I can see is, can you please provide an update on your air mobility projects as we have seen some news during the past weeks from different market participants here?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Well, as you know, we are active in this field since a couple of years. I would say the most positive news for this, let's say, milestone in this new mobility concept was a Type Certificate EHang received in China. This Type Certificate has still some limitations, but Ehang in China right now has the authority to fly passengers from A to B at the time being in a nonurban area. So they are certainly a front runner in terms of moving into revenue service. This is good. We are having meetings with EHang again in the next weeks to come, discussing on the next steps, especially outside of China. And well, since Ehang was our first customers, we are having a close relationship there and watching the further needs to have.Other programs, as you also know, we have engaged with U.S. manufacturer, Archer, we have put public. For Archer, we are producing the entire wing, the complete fuselage and also the interior. Archer has started flight testing with their serial production vehicle just recently, very straightforward structured plane to complete flight testing in the next couple of periods with a plan together with United Airlines to start revenue service during the course of the year 2025. So with Archer, we have a strong development contract. As Ales already said before, we are engineering and developing as we speak based on certain agreements. In the third quarter, we have spent money. Based on the milestones we are fulfilling, in the fourth quarter, payment will come.For the next year, we have serial production orders already in from Archer, starting with a slight ramp-up of production needs for their fleet. Exact numbers, we can confirm later, I would say, in 2024. There is another program where we have been engaged for some time. Also, I cannot disclose the customer yet, but they hope to do that soon, and we have signed up a [ forward ] contract just recently in September. We are working with this potential customer giving us allowance to make a public announcement of what it is, but the vehicle is very similar to the Archer vehicle.So overall, I think looking a little bit ahead, the development contracts we currently have under contract between today and 2027 has a volume of roughly EUR 100 million. So this is development contracts we have currently under contract. Production volume, we are not yet specific because our production ramp-up in volume is still pending on the certification and [ anchoring ] the service of every -- each vehicle we are working on. I hope this is giving you a top level overview on where we are, what we do and what the potentials could be.

U
Unknown Executive

Very clear. The last question I can see so far is, can you provide an update on the COMAC deliveries and FACCs revenue share for 9M from COMAC production?

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Well, COMAC production is very stable right now on the ARJ21. We are producing 36 airplanes a year. This was the case in 2022. This will be the case in 2023 and the forecast for 2024, 2025 is pretty much stable rate on the ARJ21. On the 919, the first 3 airplanes are delivered to airlines with consuming revenue service hours at the time being. With COMAC, we are currently working on the ramp-up of the program for 2024, the ramp-up is quite steep. So basically, in the year 2023, we have delivered, in total, 12 airplane sets to COMAC. We are currently discussing with COMAC on the rate ramp up for 2024, but we see at least doubling the rate, even a little bit more than doubling the rate for 2024. And then there will be a steady increase into 2025, '26 and '27.COMAC is expecting hitting a rate of round about 70 to 100 airplanes between 2027 plus/minus. So certainly strong depending on the ramp-up performance of the entire industry. Overall, if the COMAC 919 and the ARJ -- if the COMAC 919 runs at a rate of 100 airplanes a year and the ARJ21 at 36, the revenue stream out of COMAC is round about EUR 100 million a year.

U
Unknown Executive

It seems like there are no further questions. So we now reach the end of today's call, and I say thank you to all participants. And yes, and back to you for some closing remarks.

M
Michael Steirer
executive

Thank you so much. Thanks for joining us. And in case of any further open questions, please get in touch with the IR department, so even [ Panu ] or myself. And maybe for the closing statement, I will once again pass over to Robert. Thank you.

R
Robert Machtlinger
executive

Well, thank you, Michael. Everything said, thank you for participating. Thank you for listening. Thank you for your questions. And as Michael said, if there is any question popping up, please don't hesitate to call us. I wish you a good day, and talk to you very soon. Bye-bye.

M
Michael Steirer
executive

Bye-bye. Thank you.

A
Aleš Stárek
executive

Thank you. Bye-bye.

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