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Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
China Development Financial Holding Corp
In the third quarter of 2023, CDF's net income reached TWD 17.5 billion with earnings per share of $1.05. The company's strategic pivot towards the 'ABCD' strategies and focus on innovation led to the reception of the IDC Digital Infrastructure award and a continuous spot in the FTSE4Good Emerging Index. There's a strong trajectory with executive confidence in paying dividends in 2024, pending approval at the AGM and by the Board of directors.
Subsidiaries of CDF have shown remarkable growth, with KGI Bank's net income at TWD 4.2 billion, driven by a substantial 252% year-on-year increase in consumer finance business. KGI Securities saw a net income leap by 101% from the previous year, with customer assets under management (AUM) rising by 25% to TWD 413 billion. CDIB Capital also demonstrated strong performance with a TWD 1.4 billion net income and progressive investment initiatives, expecting to yield TWD 6.4 billion in fee-paying AUM next year.
Despite an 11% decrease in KGI's three months net income due to negative carry from bond positions, CDF anticipates an easing situation with the upcoming rate environment. Overall, the consolidated net income increased by 5% to TWD 3.7 trillion. There's notable improvement in the double leverage ratio, reduced to 124% from 128%, showcasing strong capitalization and sound regulatory standing.
China Life, facing a decline in premium income due to rapid rate hikes, has prioritized high-value '6-pay' products, especially in foreign currencies. It's witnessed a 36% year-over-year growth in traditional regular pay policies, making up 53% of the First Year Premium (FYP). As a market leader in USD policies, China Life holds a #1 industry ranking with more than 50% FYP market share.
CFO Jenny Huang expressed a positive outlook on CDF's financial health, with the nine-month net income standing at TWD 17.51 billion. The company's net worth increased to TWD 235 billion, up from TWD 209 billion, while all three subsidiaries maintained very sound capital adequacy, indicating strong financial buffers and robust risk management practices.
Good afternoon. I'm the speaker at the moment from CDF [indiscernible]. Welcome all of you to joining CDF's 2023 Q3 Investor Conference Call. And today's agenda will have 4 parts it. First of all, we will invite a CEO and President, Steve, to talk about the overall performance review of and so the strategy uptake of ABCD strategies. Next, our CFO, Jenny Huang, will explain the financial overview. Then for each subsidiary, we will invite Melanie Nan to cover the performance upgrade, and next session will be QA.
Before I invite Steve, you can use the interpretation function in [indiscernible].
[Foreign Language] So I want to give you a brief update of our financial performance for the first 9 months of 2023. Net income was TWD 17.5 billion, earnings per share of $1.05. We continue to drive innovation and transformation as a sole recipient of the IDC Digital Infrastructure award in Taiwan, and we're also selected to the FTSE4Good Emerging Index for the seventh consecutive year.
In terms of China Life, 9-month net income was TWD 11.3 billion. They continue to remain focused on high-value products and increase the market share of regular-paid policies. D&B margin also continued to go up 35.3% versus 29.3% in the same period last year. And we managed to also increase our pre-hedging recurring yield by 10 basis points up to 3.85 as of the end of September.
For KGI Bank, net income of TWD 4.2 billion and annualized ROE of 8.9%. We continue to grow our SME and personal loan business, which grew 16% and 24%, respectively. And our consumer finance business is up 252% year-on-year. The profit of CNY 325 million in 2023 so far this year. Also, our customer wealth management fee income grew 30% compared to the same period last year, and our AUM is now in excess of TWD 500 billion.
CDIB Capital 9-month net income was TWD 1.4 billion, with an annualized ROE of 6.5%. The Board approved new investments in both Innolux Fund II and our data center project fund, which is expected to yield TWD 6.4 billion in fee-paying AUM next year. We also pledged up to TWD 3 million in a matching fund in the NDC's regional revitalization initiative and partnership to support micro and small businesses to energize local economies.
KGI Securities delivered a very strong set of results with net income of TWD 5.4 billion, a 101% increase on last year. And overseas contribution was also up 172%, with a 13% ROE, which is above the industry average. [indiscernible] also increased our brokerage market share from 10.4% and to 11.4%. Customer AUM also continues to grow strongly, up 25% year-on-year, up to TWD 413 billion as of September. Also as of late November, ROCI valuations remain at a comfortable level, which should enable us to pay dividend in 2024, subject to AGM and Board directors' approval.
We now turn to the next page, a quick update on our overall strategy. We continue to accelerate our digital efforts and have expanded our partnerships and alliances to build ecosystems. We're also beginning to include AI to our leading innovation part of the strategy. Our employee engagement continues to improve. Results for this survey this year were 73, which were up on 68 the year before, 61 2 years ago and 53 3 years ago. Anything above 70 is outstanding.
In terms of customer focus, we've continued to drive NPS. We recently received overall results based on third-party, double-blind studies, which are #1 overall, and also tied for #1 in digital. We continue to reposition our brand and uncommitted to your prosperity. And you'll hear shortly a quick update on where we are with Channel Life rename KDI Life.
We remain focused on driving growth and our AUM is now TWD 4.3 billion for the group, on target towards our goal of TWD 5 billion by 2025. We continue to focus on transforming our IT infrastructure and a lot of work continues on building open AIs and shifting more of applications to the cloud. And as you saw a few moments ago, we continue to maintain very strong ESG leadership.
If you go to the next page, I'll only touch on a few examples of what's occurring in our businesses. China Life has launched over 100 new functions in our customer app, and the percentage of self-service ratio has increased from 9% to 17%. We will complete the rebrand of Channel Life to KGI Life in January 1 of this year, and there will be a press conference in December to announce this in more detail. We remain focused on driving foreign currencies, and market share is now #1, with FYP reaching TWD 21.2 billion. And we remain ranked #2 in protection-type products, with FYP reaching TWD 15 billion, a 30% year-on-year growth.
For KGI Bank, we continue to expand our alliance networks to now 11 partners. We launched KGIB-KGIS consolidated onboarding process, which, by automating over half the information, continues to optimize the customer experience. The number of mobile app logins also continues to increase, up 20%, and now 87% of all our transactions are digital. And in terms of industry-leading deposit collaboration with nonprofit organizations, we reached 600 million during the first 9 months of this year.
For CDIB Capital, we continue to explore new asset management products, for example, fund of funds and our corporate ventures. We also kicked off a beneficiary note program with a target size of USD 33 billion, which is off to a very strong start. And our green asset investments reached TWD 2.8 billion, up 7.4% on last year. KGI Securities also continues to increase their share of straight-through processing transactions up to 50%, compared to 23% at the end of last year.
We strengthened our TCF and launched [indiscernible] hot lines for customers. We've now trained over 1,000 Channel Life agents who have passed the Security Special License exam. And we launched a new financial podcast, which was ranked top 15 for business programs during the first week.
I'll now hand it over to Jenny to give you an update on our financials.
[Interpreted] Thank you, Steve. Thank you, investors, now I will cover the 9 months 2023 performance. Please go to Slide 13. Our 9-month net income is TWD 17.51 billion. KGIS profits doubled compared last year. And China Life, due to hedging costs, they have seen some decline in their profitability. In terms of the consolidated net income, we have climbed up to 5% to TWD 3.7 trillion, and our net worth has also grown from TWD 209 billion to TWD 235 billion of this year. Next page.
The first 3 months net income is TWD 4.2 billion, down 11% comparing to last year. This is because of the negative carry from the bond position. However, since we expect the rates will be to begin to ease. And we believe our negative carry situation will be eased. On the upper right chart, CDIB's 9-month profit, due to the recovery of valuation, and we have picked up our loss and then gained TWD 1.4 billion by the first 9 months. And KGIS income is TWD 5.4 billion, which has doubled from the previous year.
For KGIS in traditional brokerage, wealth management business and other business has seen great increase comparing to the last year. And this is the capitalization of our subsidiaries. If we look at CDF, our double leverage ratio has dropped from 128% to -- last year to 124% this year. For the first 3 quarters performance and the recovery in our old CI, they have both benefited in our capitalization in the holdings, and we believe we can maintain our double leverage ratio and regulatory centers. And you can also see the 3 subsidiaries' capital adequacy, they are all on a very sound basis.
And I'll hand over to Mandy to talk about the subsidiaries details. Thank you.
Page 17, China Life. As you can see in the slide, for the premium income, the FYP in the first 9 months, the decline is because of rapid rate hikes. And China Life continues to focus on 6-pay products, including foreign currency products. As you can see on the upper right, the product mix, traditional regular pay has increased 36% Y-o-Y, accounting for 53% of the FYP. To strengthen the matching of asset and liability, China Life also focuses on the [indiscernible] of USD policies. And in the first 9 months, the market share of USD policy rate #1 in the industry, making up more than 50% of FYP.
And for distribution channels, China Life maintains a balanced approach and continues to increase the FYP contribution from its own channel, now for 29%. And also focused on regular pay product and AMH. And if you look at FYPE, all to FYP decline, FYPE is roughly the same compared to last year. And regular pay takes up nearly 90%.
Page 18 for VNB, value of new business, due to weaker premium momentum, VNB dropped around 9% Y-o-Y. However, because we focus on high-value products, as you can see on the slide, VNB margin reached 35.3%, which is much higher compared to last year. And for spread, due to the increase in hedging costs, investment return is 3.57% and COI is at 3.02%, maintaining a positive spread.
And Page 19, our portfolio, we value AUM and focus on long-term and stable income. With fixed income as the main allocation, China Life seizes investment opportunity amid very high -- the asset allocation remains the same compared to last year. Part of the way changes -- from the changes in investment valuation. And the investment returns of each asset are as listed, and the figures for our investment are pre-hedged figures.
Next, Slide 20. Our recurring [indiscernible] due to the increase in return from new money that recurring deal in the [ last 3 quarter ] increased tenants Y-o-Y. And hedging cost, the percentage is 1.27%, which is much better than the first half of the year. And for the hedging structure, the hedging ratio is around 65%. It has been lower slightly. And for our FX reserve, by the end of September, we have reached [ TWD 16.53 billion ]. reaching the legal cap.
Next, KGI Bank. [ 2022 ] net revenue due to rate hike, the financial asset related income increased by 7% Y-o-Y. However, due to rising funding costs, interest income has declining slightly, but the overall net revenue is the same as last year. Fee income grew by 6% Y-o-Y, while management-related fee income grew 30% Y-o-Y. For NIM and spread, due to [indiscernible] optimization, the spread has reached 2.1%, and NIM was affected by rising funding costs. The first 9 months. It has remained at [ 1.33% ].
Continue to maintain sound asset quality for NPL, although the ratio went up slightly, but it's due to a single case. And this case has, however, a sufficient guarantee and now it has been to dispose of assets. If we include that, the figure is 0.21. So we continue to maintain a solid asset quality moving forward. Next slide.
As you can see on the slide, the low mix, which is the same as last year. However, we continue to optimize the mix. As you can see for SME, it grew by any 26%, similar level grew by 7%, among which personal loans increased by [ 24% ]. On the other side for deposit mix, compared to the same period last year, the change in deposit balance was mainly due to the increase in foreign currency and time deposit by 37%. Next CDIB.
[Interpreted] Please go to Page 25. Here, maybe in terms of asset management business, it closed the first round of [indiscernible] business bond, and AUM increased to TWD 52.7 billion. In terms of physical investment compensation by geography, China and global positions are increasing mainly due to fund disbursement and valuation growth. And the overall asset is TWD 3.9 billion. In the next page, in the top right, the fee income -- the [indiscernible] continue to strengthen the asset management business to stable fee income. In the first 9-month fee income is TWD 420 million.
On the top right, return is compared with the MSCI volatility, CDIB's investment positions is more stable than the market. On the bottom left -- bottom right, in terms of the PE business, since 2020 this a new business, private product. And this scale has picked up year-on-year, and it also contribute more interest income and fee income. And it contributes to a more forceable profit for the company, the first 9 months revenue reached TWD 240 million. Next, KGIS. Please go to Page 28.
For the first 9 months, ROE is 13% and outperforming the industry average. Now the key strategy including the overseas expansion and wealth management growth. In overseas, the contribution to accounted for 14.4% compared with 11% last year, a significant growth. In terms of AUM, including wealth management, both take up 22%. On the bottom right, the wealth management-related revenue increased 42% compared with the same period last year.
In Page 29, the net revenue in the first 9 months, KGIS gross revenue amounted to TWD 11 billion, which is 33% compared versus same period last year, and mainly benefiting from the capital market stabilization and successful investment strategies. [indiscernible] income also increased 18%. And on the right chart, we can see the revitalization of KGIS in the market.
And that's the performance review of the 4 subsidiaries in the first 3 quarters. Next, we're going to move to the Q&A session.
[Interpreted] Thank you for your explanation. Now we move to the Q&A. We will invite institutional investors and analysts to raise questions. Please remember to press the wave hand button to raise questions. The first question, Jemmy from JPMorgan. Yes, can you speak louder?
[Interpreted] Yes, okay. I have 2 questions. For CDIB, it seems the NIM quarter-on-quarter is flat. It is an adjusted number for NIM. It is in reported NIM. What is the quarter-on-quarter trend? And second, for the management, do you expect in the future quarters, the outlook will be flat? And second question, NPL. The NPL price is due to a single case. I don't know if you can share more detail about the case, about the region or the industry of the case. You mentioned you have full [indiscernible] of the case. So does that mean we don't have any extra provision for the case and we'll rely on the collateral disposal?
As for China Life, can you share with us the recurring yield? In this interest backdrop, if we look into the future for the next 12 months, how much space for further intrinsic hype? Another question is about hedging costs, you already reached the optimal limit of the FX reserve, so I don't know the exact number of the limit. It really reached the limit event. So in Q4, are there any benefits to the recurring yield in Q4.
The second question about China Life. The FSC is an announcement about ICS intermediate metrics. Interest risk in RBC and [indiscernible], how much percentage in calculation of [indiscernible]. And the last question about CDF, your dividend [indiscernible]. Some of your peers mentioned, based on what I understood, this year, whether a huge [indiscernible] or the division, or rather, it depends on the location and the other equity. Last year, if you have any efficiencies you on your provision, I believe you're facing the same issue. Based on what you may understand, are you going to follow the same approach as the peers? That means this year, based on the variation under shareholders' equity and reclassification. So far, the distributable reserve is still better than the remit earnings.
Thank you, Jemmy, for your questions. For KGIB, China Life and CDF, we'll invite Stephanie Hwang to ansher.
[Interpreted] About the main question now 1.23% is swap included. If we exlude swap, this figure is at 1.13%. The -- there will be a plenty big difference before and after covering swap. And this NIM is actually increasing the swap effect. In the year -- at the beginning of the year, it's about 15 bps. And for the single case that affects our NPL, this is a case of business building in London. Now we are making the reserve based on the regulation. The current valuation of this real estate, we believe, it will fully cover our exposure in the real estate position. And for China Life, you asked about recurring yields and other questions. And I will hand over to Lauren.
[Interpreted] For hedging costs and recurring yield, for the next 12 months, the increase of recurring, if the rate remains high, new money can be benefited. We think it's possible to go up. However, we need to look at the overall position. [indiscernible] need bigger funds. So I think it's about 5 to 10 bps, but it depends on the rates moving forward. For hedging cost, we have reached a limit in September. The figure is TWD 16.5 billion. And how -- what benefits will bring because FX fluctuates a lot, it will affect hedging costs. We will continue to drop a stable approach. And then I will pass the floor to Rochelle.
[indiscernible] Jemmy, based on current calculation, our interest rate risk under RBC and ISS is roughly the same. Starting from last year, Insurance Bureau has a weighted approach. The purpose is to bridge the gap between the 2 themes. Last year and this year, we do not fall in that category. And for the transition, we won't fall into that category as well. So this is my response to that. Now I will pass the floor to Jenny.
[Interpreted] you asked about the dividend-related issue. Our view is the same as our peers. About the distributable dividend or revenue, meaning that if our OCI and our reclassification mark-to-market does -- do not pose any further unrealized loss, then we will be able to use the revenue of the quarter or of the period. But we also need to make a reserve of 10% for capital. And I hope I answered your question.
[Interpreted] I have a follow-up question. Based on what we've seen end of September, end of October on unrealized loss valuation, if we include the shareholders' equity or reclassification, then is the net impact positive or negative?
[Interpreted] Now based on the end of September figure, we have already had the statement that result is a positive impact.
[Interpreted] Okay. Understood.
[Interpreted] are there any other questions? And now Peggy from Morgan Stanley.
[Interpreted] Yes, okay. My question is that we see that the double leverage ratio, by the end of September, you maintained at a level of 124%. And is the -- this is still relatively high since the regulatory limit is 125%. Would this affect the dividend payout of the next year? And what is your view or your strategy over the high [indiscernible] ratio? And how will you -- what will you do to lower that? And also the ADT view on the timely stock, I would like to hear from the management
[Interpreted] You -- we will hand over to Jenny to answer the double leverage ratio issue.
[Interpreted] On the question whether DOR affects the dividend payout, we need to maintain a stable financial status to give dividend. Although the regulation did not say if we exceed [indiscernible], we cannot take the dividend. But we still concern our [indiscernible] of financial figures. And now the ratio is at 124%, we maintain close flow to the risk and capital under the holdings. So our view for next year is still positive. We are we have a level of confidence to maintain the regulatory threshold of DOR. Peggy, your second question, we...
[Interpreted] The Taiwanese stock question. Can you elaborate the ADT transaction volume? What is your view?
I'll talk about the market. I mean, obviously, the market has continued to improve. I mean we're seeing inventory levels being replenished. So our view is that the market trend will remain positive, at least during the first part of next year.
[Interpreted] Are there any other questions? Now we'll hand over to Ms. Wang from Bloomberg.
[Interpreted] [indiscernible] and will you be adding more position on that?
[Interpreted] Thank you. I'll hand over to Lauren.
[Interpreted] We talked about this, the portfolio remains the same. The changes comes from valuation. As you can see for foreign investments, these [indiscernible] override. However, because of rate changes and WB depreciation, it seems like we have increased foreign investment. That's not the case. For the overall portfolio, we only do a minor adjustment. For our fund ETFs, the percentage is not very high. It is at around 4% to 5%. This is my response. Thank you.
[Interpreted] We will continue to increase position. Our product strategy, as we mentioned, we will focus on USD policies. For USD coming in, we will many for investments. With new funds, we will continue to make [indiscernible] use for investment.
[Interpreted] Question from [indiscernible] from President Holdings. [indiscernible]? Yes, the floor is yours.
[Interpreted] I have a few questions here is KGIB, you mentioned the FX. What is the amount for the first 3 quarters? And what is your outlook for F4? Will you be turning on momentum for FX on all the way until Q4? And also, I want to ask about the single placing overseas of the real estate, will you be adding more reserve for that? And what is your cost of credit, because your -- whether your cost of credit will be at a low level? And I will also to know about the loan and the fee strategy of KGIB, because the fee maintains a long strategy to maintain flat and fee is also not increasing. So I would like to know your view for the next year.
And the second question goes to China Life. For FYP, VNB and hedging costs, what will be your guidance for next year? And the third question has to do with venture capital. I know that you are a big shareholder of [indiscernible]. Will [indiscernible] might go to IPO in the next year? And after IPO, would it bring any more benefits to your holdings? And then what is the valuation of working on your book? That will be all.
[Interpreted] Tina, thank you for your question. So banks question, we'll hand over to Chris.
[Interpreted] Regarding the first 3 quarter swap income, it's considered stable. The 9-month figure is about TWD 1 billion. And we said that in Q4, the momentum will continue, will even be better. But for next year, if we are looking forward, I don't think it's a [indiscernible] for us to determine, because we still need to rely on the real life and the market situation. And the single case impact on PL, our credit cost will maintain 3 to 5 bps. So we believe that it wouldn't strike a big impact to our NPL. In terms of loan and fee, [indiscernible] for that.
[Interpreted] The composition or the mix of the loan and fee has [indiscernible]. We have reduced decision coming from large corporation and increased percentage coming from [indiscernible], and they have all seen good momentum. Although the overall fee is [indiscernible], wealth management-related fee increased by 30%, what have gone down is the fee income coming from the large corporations. And we believe our growth momentum will continue, and we will be briefing you on the latest in the next year. For China Life, we'll turn over to Rochelle.
[Interpreted] Next year, with less [indiscernible] fluctuation, VNB will grow by 10% to 20% our target. And for our hedging costs, I will pass the floor to Lauren.
[Interpreted] Next year, because the spread between Taiwan and U.S. is -- the situation won't be resolved soon. So the hedging point costs will remain high at swap and NDF. On the other hand, if we look at TWD exchange rate, it really fluctuates a lot. Next year, we think it is possible to maintain the same level as this year. It really depends on the market condition.
[Interpreted] No questions? We'll open for the question session for the media. Now we'll invite Susan. Can you speak louder, please?
[Interpreted] [indiscernible]
[Interpreted] Thank you, Susan. We'll invite our CFO to answer your question.
[Interpreted] Yes, what you mentioned is correct. And this year, by the end of September, we've mentioned our OCR [indiscernible] reclassification positions. It is a [indiscernible] bigger. So in this situation, when we consider our dividend policies, we can consider our current earnings and that's all.
[Interpreted] Any other questions? So Jemmy from JPMorgan, you can ask questions, please.
[Foreign Language]
[Interpreted] Jemmy, you have more questions?
[Interpreted] Yes.
[Interpreted] You can speak out.
[Interpreted] I would like to confirm with Jenny's answer. Can you hear me?
[Interpreted] Yes. Yes, we can hear you.
[Interpreted] Jenny's answer, do you mean now in the other equity, you see negative numbers and those numbers will not impact the dividend payout next year. I just want to confirm.
[Interpreted] Yes. Because we only look at the current valuation, you look at the accumulation number.
[Interpreted] Are there other questions? Thank you for your questions. And that's all for today's investment conference. And we received a question, [indiscernible].
[Interpreted] [indiscernible] 30 billion reserve.
[Interpreted] Yes, according to the regulation. It is a [indiscernible] dividend. Thank you.
[Interpreted] Okay. So no further questions. And that's all for today's investor conference. And later, you can find today's recording in the investment conference area in our website. You can also download the PowerPoint. If you have further questions, you can call or email us. Thank you for joining today, and wish you all well. Thank you.
[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]