Chroma ATE Inc
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Earnings Call Analysis

Q3-2024 Analysis
Chroma ATE Inc

Chroma's Q3 2024: Growth in Semiconductor and Metrology Sectors Amid Challenges

In the third quarter of 2024, Chroma reported TWD 5.6 billion in revenue, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase. Its semiconductor and photonics sectors showed strong growth, while automation sales surged by 133% compared to last year. The company anticipates continued momentum, with expectations for fourth quarter revenues exceeding TWD 10 billion, driven by strong orders from high-performance computing clients. However, a decline in the power testing sector is expected, projecting a 22% decrease this year. Gross margins remain steady at around 59%, and net income for the quarter was TWD 1.4 billion, a 16% increase year-over-year.

Performance Overview

Chroma's third quarter of 2024 exhibited strong growth despite external headwinds. Total sales revenue for the quarter reached TWD 5.6 billion, reflecting a 2% increase from the previous quarter and a notable 16% growth year-over-year. The majority of this revenue stemmed from testing equipment, which accounted for TWD 5.1 billion, remaining consistent with the previous quarter while still growing 12% compared to the prior year. Automation sales surged dramatically, doubling quarter-over-quarter and increasing 133% year-over-year, demonstrating a robust demand in this segment.

Margin Stability and Profitability

The gross margin for the third quarter stood at TWD 3.3 billion, maintaining a solid 59% margin similar to the previous quarter, but up 20% from last year’s figures. Operating income was reported at TWD 1.5 billion, reflecting flat sequential growth but a 22% increase from the same period last year. Net income for the quarter was TWD 1.4 billion, constituting 26% of the total revenue, marking a slight 1% growth from the last quarter and a 16% increase year-over-year. Earnings per share reached TWD 3.39 for this period.

Year-to-Date Performance and Future Guidance

For the first three quarters of 2024, Chroma recorded a cumulative revenue of TWD 15.5 billion, which is a 14% increase compared to TWD 13.6 billion for the same period last year. Both the semiconductor and automation segments exhibited strong performance, with particularly strong growth in automation sales contributing to a projection for overall revenue exceeding TWD 10 billion in the second half of the year. Management remains optimistic, indicating a strong fourth quarter despite typical seasonal declines.

Challenges and Market Dynamics

Despite the positive trends, certain segments like ATS have faced challenges. The ATS sector declined approximately 11% year-over-year due to reduced capital expenditure, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage system (ESS) markets. The expectation for the fourth quarter indicates that this sector may drop further, reflecting the ongoing weakness in capital spending among key customers.

Projected Growth in Semiconductor Sector

Chroma anticipates that their semiconductor segment will continue to perform strongly, propelled by increasing orders from major high-performance computing (HPC) customers. Already transitioning significantly, Chroma expects semiconductor sales to surpass their power business for the first time this year, indicating a positive turn in this core segment. Full-year guidance suggests that the semiconductor segment will be vital in sustaining revenue momentum into 2025.

Focus on Metrology and Competitive Edge

The company is leveraging its capabilities in metrology to access new markets. Chroma's metrology products are expected to contribute significantly to future revenue, with estimated market shares reaching 10% to 20% in specific niches, potentially generating USD 40 million to USD 60 million. This strategic push, alongside maintaining a robust pipeline of orders extending into 2026, underscores Chroma’s positioning as a competitive player in advanced testing technologies.

Shareholder Value and Future Prospects

Regarding their capital return strategy, Chroma maintains a 70% payout ratio. With a return on equity reaching 22%, the company is positioned to reward shareholders while investing in future expansion. However, ongoing investments—including a Phase 2 expansion project slated for completion in 2026—indicate a commitment to long-term growth, with short-term improvements in cash flow expected post-completion.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q3

from 0
Operator

Welcome to Chroma's 2024 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] For your information, a webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit www.chroma.com.tw/investor/index under the Investor Relations section.

And now I would like to introduce the CFO, Paul Ying. Mr. Ying, please begin.

P
Paul Ying
executive

Thank you, Jason. Hi, everyone, ladies and gentlemen. This is Paul Ying from Chroma. And Jennifer Chien is with me today. Welcome to the 2024 third quarter financial release meeting.

Well, first of all, I will thank you for your attendance to this meeting. Simply because this is a public holiday for the Typhoon, and outside of the window from the meeting room at Chroma, I still can see the raindrops and very windy weather outside. So in typical Chinese traditions, I think the waters meaning the fortune. So I wish you all make a big fortune in this year. And well, with the investment in Chroma as well.

Okay. Let's go to the 2024 third quarter's consolidated income statement. I think you can look at the -- from our presentation material at the website. For the third quarter of this year, you can see that the sales revenue for the third quarter is TWD 5.6 billion. And compared to last quarter, it's a 2% growth on a Q-over-Q base. And compared to the last year, third quarter, it's a 16% growth. I think it's a pretty good record.

And for the proportions of the consolidated sales and testing equipment business, it's TWD 5.1 billion, representing 92% of the whole top line. And this is kind of flat to the last quarter. And it's -- again, it's a 12% growth compared to last year. And for the automation sales of the MAS, it's TWD 3.8 billion compared to last year -- compared to the last quarter, it's 100% growth and compared to the last year, it's 133% growth.

So for the gross margin, it comes to the TWD 3.3 billion, represent 59% of the gross margin. And it's kind of flat to the last quarter and with another 20% growth compared to the last year's third quarter. And for the operating income, you can see that for the third quarter, it makes TWD 1.5 billion. It represents a flat to the -- compared to the last quarter. At the same time, compared to the last year's third quarter, it's a 22% growth.

So for the -- net income for the third quarter, it goes with the TWD 1.4 billion, represent 26% of the top line. And it's kind of 1% growth compared to last quarter, but with 16% growth with the Y-o-Y base. So in here, you can see that the earnings per share for the third quarter is TWD 3.39. And this is the third quarter financial result for the year of '24.

And if we accumulated the first 3 quarters for the income statement, you can see that for the first 3 quarter, the net sales is TWD 15.5 billion, compared to last year, TWD 13.6 billion. This is a 14% growth. And again, from the proportion of the consolidated sales of testing equipment business, it's TWD 14.6 billion compared to last year first 3 quarter, it's a 14% growth.

Again, for the automation portion, MAS for the first 3 quarter this year, it's TWD 661 million compared to last year, it's a 7% growth. So here, you can see that the gross margin for this year is TWD 9.1 billion compared to the TWD 8.1 billion last year, it's a 12% growth on the gross profit portion.

And for the operating income, you can see that for this year, first 3 quarter, it's accumulated TWD 3.9 billion, compared to last year, TWD 3.6 billion, it's an 8% growth. So for the net income, it goes to the TWD 3.8 billion, occupied 25% of the top line and represent another 18% growth compared to the last year first 3 quarter. So for the first 9 months accumulation of the earnings per share, it goes to the TWD 9. And this is the financial result for the income statement.

If we look at the balance sheet portion, you can see from next page, the highlight for the balance sheet and the financial ratios, you can see from here that the cash is pretty much the same and inventory a little bit higher than the last year-end.

And again, for the long-term debt is kind of accumulating due to the capital expense for our Phase 2 expansion for our factories. So the total assets is growing like 6%. And again, for the inventory turnover, it's pretty much -- it goes to the 6 months -- a little bit over 6 months of the turnover days. And accounts receivable turnover is pretty much in line with our expectations on the 3 months.

And another thing I would like to share with you is the return on equity. It goes to the 22%, which is fall in our expectations right now and has a bit of a growth compared to the last year and 18%. And for those like the cash positions, like free cash flows, it all in a pretty good positions here.

This is the highlights for the balance sheet and the financial ratios. And then let's go to the operation highlights. And Jennifer, you want to share us with those product mix and those sales breakdown, please?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Jennifer. I will go through the product mix in third quarter and give some colors for each sectors. And please refer to Slide 9. First, the ATS sectors in third quarter was similar to second quarter, but down about 11% compared to last year. Overall, in the first 3 quarters, down about 22% compared to previous year. This is mainly due to a low CapEx sentiment, particularly from EV and ESS markets.

For fourth quarter, which is a typical low season for power testing -- for power industries, so we think it may be lower than third quarter, okay? Our semiconductors and photonics sectors remained strong. Third quarter is similar to second quarter, but compared to 2023, it had increase of 70%. The breakdown in third quarter was 85% IC testing related and 15% photonic sectors. And system-level testers under IC was a major shipment for fourth.

And as our major HPC customers continue to increase orders, so we may have a strong sales momentum in fourth quarter. We believe this year will be the turning point for Chroma. It will be the first year our semi sales over our power business. And for turnkey sectors, in the last 3 quarters, the major delivery was an automation projects. The EV battery cell projects contribution is pretty much limited, okay?

Our key highlights for this call regarding to the operation. First, our view in July, which is our second half will be better than first half, remains no change. We still have very high level of confidence our second half will be doing better than first half. The key driver were coming from our semiconductor sectors.

And as you know, this year is Chroma's 40th anniversary. We're still expecting to have some achievement no matter for ourselves or our profits. So to jump to conclusion, we think we're able to have a good quarter in fourth quarter despite of the low season.

So, I think, we're able to move on to Q&A. Please follow the instructions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] First question, Wern Juan Chng, HSBC.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

I hope you guys are safe given the Typhoon season suddenly. Yes, so my first question is regarding metrology. Just to clarify, you guys are doing surface film metrology for RDL, not inspection. That's my first question. I have a couple of follow-ups.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Metrology cannot be called as inspections. So metrology is -- you can't use inspection equipment for RDL. So for this kind of measurement and inspection equipment for RDL, it's normally called metrology.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Yes. So you guys are doing metrology is essentially assessing the film thickness for RDL, right?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

The film thickness for RDL.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

What do you mean by film?

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Is that correct? The surface film thickness. So understanding essentially the film composition.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Well, I have no -- what do you mean by film this, I don't understand. But basically, what we -- the 2 major spec we cover under our metrology. First one is the interposer alignment. Second one is measure the TSV.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Okay. That's really helpful. So essentially, I've talked to a couple of your competitors and also industry participants at the fair out there. They are talking about USD 200 million to USD 400 million in terms of the market, USD million. So my question to you is how much market share will you be willing to take?

So obviously, this metrology is very small and it's new. So if you assume 10% to 20% market share to metrology, that will be about USD 40 million to USD 60 million in terms of USD contribution to your overall revenue, and that will be high single digits of 2023 revenue. Is that a reasonable assumption? Is that fair? Is that -- the way to think about it? Yes.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. First, actually, foundry customers have very restricted selection process, and this kind of selection process takes out for 1 year. I only could say I have no idea how do you define for the competition and market share, but we are the only one being qualified for the new capacity ramp.

So -- and another key message I could deliver is according to our foundry customers speak in the semicon Taiwan, RDL equipment, which is metrology is one of the major equipment will continue to increase and become -- I mean, the percentage-wise will be continue to increase for the overall CapEx spending. Yes.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

But high single digits your revenue next year is reasonable, right? Or...

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We haven't finalized our budget, we couldn't comment. Yes, sorry.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Okay. Got it. But -- okay, in my opinion, I think that's fair. But you can correct me later on if I'm wrong. Then I guess, any plans to venture into inspection or not really, you just stick with TSV and alignment?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

No, we stick with metrology, but metrology spec and also metrology application will continue to increase. That's why metrology equipment have this kind of upside, not inspection. So currently, we don't consider to move into inspections.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Yes. But I guess growing from a low base, it's still -- it will be a while before you offset essentially system-level tests and EVs, right? It's not going to be anytime soon, it will take a while because…

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Which one?

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Metrology to the contribution to your overall sales will take a while.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

No, we already start. We -- I think, we already start -- I mean, well, if you talk about new capacity, we'll start to deliver from next year. But if you talk about some -- if you say the actual timing to deliver the metrology, I think it will be started from this year, which is fourth quarter. So this is -- okay, qualification process is already complete and we got qualified, yes.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Okay. Got it. I'll hop back to the queue. I've got couple more questions.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes. Sure. Okay.

Operator

Next one, Haas Liu, UBS.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Congratulations on your solid results and thanks for taking my questions. And my first question would be regarding your near-term business outlook. When you talked about second half business will be better than first half. Could you quantify the percentage of their contribution to full year sales and how it would compare with the historical seasonality of that 10% in fourth quarter?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We can't give you a numbers of guidance. I mean we couldn't provide guidance with the numbers. So we already give a very clear guidance regarding to -- since you already have first 3 quarters and then you also have the first half numbers, which is close to TWD 10 billion. And then we definitely will have more than TWD 10 billion in second half. So we think fourth quarter -- we're already using the words called good. So, despite a low season. So don't consider it a low season.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Okay. Yes, that's pretty helpful. And I guess just from the magnitude of the momentum for fourth quarter, could you just try to call the folks, try to elaborate more detail about which business segments will be the main driver because you just mentioned semiconductor will still outperform?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes, semiconductor products.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Yes,

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes. Semiconductors actually bringing out the overall, I mean, the fourth quarter delivery. As we mentioned before, one our major HPC customers have continued to place order. And we believe this kind of order size would meet -- majority will be booked in fourth quarter and some of it will be carried forward to next year first quarter, because the size is quite big.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Yes, that's pretty good. And for first quarter next year, what is your initial view because you still have some spillover into first quarter next year. So it seems that it is still going to be somewhat above seasonal for first half or first quarter next year, if we can assume?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Maybe we'll talk about that early next year.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Okay. Yes, no problem. That's super helpful. And my second question would be regarding the competitive landscape. I believe the first question was regarding that about your metrology and those are the SLT dynamics. So I was just wondering if you could share what is the competitive edge that you think you could hold as the key supplier to your supply chain or customers in the next 2 to 3 years?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I think customers' adoption is already -- just like I mentioned, customers do have very strict big shift in, I mean, the policies and also qualification process and normally it takes out 1 year. And this is already a conclusion. So the decision made after qualified with all the new capacity go to Chroma. So, we were in charge with the phases for coming next 2 years. So our order visibility is already up to 2026 regarding to this metrology equipment.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Okay. Yes, got it. And then lastly, before I move back to the queue because I still have some follow-up questions, but I think others can ask first. I think just regarding the margins, when I look at your third quarter business segment, it seems that semiconductor from the parent company level is actually had actually underperforming power business, although from a very high base through first half of this year.

But I was just wondering, your gross margins was actually able to hold pretty resilient during the quarter. So can we expect that kind of a resilience or even the expansion could continue as you move your mix toward or still toward your mix towards more semiconductor equipment contribution?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We still insist that we will try to maintain our overall gross margin around 55% plus or minus. But we -- to indicate which sectors have a better gross margins, this has already touched our confidentiality.

H
Haas Liu
analyst

Yes. I mean if you could just -- do you think you can reiterate that kind of gross margins or you can actually provide some of the upside to that structural gross margins guidance you have been providing?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We always try our best, as you know, yes.

Operator

Next one, Kevin Chen, Citi.

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

I hope everyone is all right there. First of all, a question on the metrology. I think we're still making the budget for next year. I was just wondering, do you have any sense on the, let's say, the rate of the revenue recognition decline?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

What do you mean?

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

And is it going to be like a fairly straight line increase throughout the year or like it's going to be like more back-end loaded? Yes.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I think you should check with our customers. We follow everything according to their plan. But this plan, the AP7 and AP8 is already confirmed. Yes. I'm not able to disclose their schedules regarding how fast they're going to ramp up AP7 and AP8.

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

Sure, sure. Just give a rough sense on -- I guess, because this is a very promising business. Would you say that, this is going to be comparable to our current SLT business, let's say within the next year or 2 or maybe like half? Just some rough idea based on our current visibility.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

You mean current visibility, metrology compared to sustain level testers?

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

Right.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I want to say both of them are major contribution for next year for sure. I think next year, our biggest drivers still come from semiconductors. Well, if I have to rank, then it's very hard. I have -- it's very difficult for us to comment on that because first, metrology is new to us, and we work really hard for it. And then as you know, capacity, especially for manufacturing parts, we only see signs of increase, but to where it's not something we're able to conclude because it depends on the user.

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

Okay. That's helpful. My second question, I just want to go back to SLT. I'm just wondering because we're seeing very strong order increase towards sometime midyear and second half this year. I was just wondering, how do we see this business going for next year? Could that be the case where the customer are building up pretty much most of the capacity they needed to. And before the next-generation of products, there might be a little bit of a slight window in between the 2 products.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. Regarding to system-level testers, next year, we do have several catalysts, for example, like existing the biggest HPC makers and also other HPC makers. But according to our current sentiment and the preliminary views, we think the momentum is pretty much the same as this year, similar.

K
Kevin Chen
analyst

Okay, similar. Are the other, I guess, secondary or ASIC customers ramping up really fast?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

No, because the biggest customers continue to build up more capacity. And also, we have new other customers decided to shift their order to us. For example, the one who just published their results yesterday.

Operator

Next one, Ken Chee of [ Ken Capital ].

U
Unknown Analyst

First, for the -- this year outlook, can we read your previous comments as the consolidated revenue for this year is likely to reach record high level?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We try, but I think profitability is something we can work on.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And question is that, do you recently receive more SLT orders from key HPC customers like the leading AI GPU player?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes, that's true. That's why we have a peak season for the fourth quarter.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Got it. And third question for the semiconductor photonics segment already reached 46% in third quarter. Do we expect this segment to reach 50% or even 60% in next year?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I think we will have 50% in fourth quarter. And then...

U
Unknown Analyst

About 50% in fourth quarter.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes. And overall, for the whole year, it should be over power business.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And how about...

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

And so we think this kind of breakdown will be also applied for next year.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Okay. Got you. And my last question is also for metrology.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

Are we scheduled to ship to 1 or 2 or more fabs for the foundry players based on current visibility?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Just like I said before, they continue to revise up their forecast for the new capacity. So I only could say, the revised version is more than our preliminary -- the preliminary version they provide to us.

Operator

Next question, [ Anthony Liu, Jieta ]

U
Unknown Analyst

Dear CFO Paul and Jennifer, I hope you are staying safe in this Typhoon Day. And I have a couple of questions related to your semiconductor business. Yes. So my -- the near-term question is, we saw your semiconductor business sequentially a little bit down by like 2% in third quarter. Is this mainly impacted by the decelerated China AT demand? And do we think the semi business can turn the positive sequential growth in the fourth quarter of this year?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. I think your first question is a very good question. Yes, I will consider third quarter is a transition quarter, which is China legacy start to decline and then system level testers start to taking -- is picking up. And currently, our forecast regarding to fourth quarter, just like we mentioned because the major HPC makers, they do place more orders. So yes, our semiconductor in fourth quarter will be more than third quarter.

U
Unknown Analyst

That's very, very clear. And so talking about the SLT business. So we also saw that the SLT business realized a triple-digit growth year-to-date. And now we also see not just your parts in SLT, but also FT tester and handler have very strong momentum in this year and next year.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

You mean the FT is for legacy, right?

U
Unknown Analyst

FT, I mean, in the HPC clients.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

No, we don't cover FT for HPC.

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes, yes. I know it's other players such as like Advent Pass or other like peers. Yes. So looking forward into 2025, we just mentioned about that we can have the same momentum in this year. So the total amount or you mean year-to-year growth in the 2025 can similar to like in this year. And so it means that we can -- like we have the share gains opportunity in some CPU and GPU cases.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I think your question, the volume is same versus dollar, right?

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes. So what's the difference? Yes. But we already give you like our view is similar to '24. Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

I see. I see. So do you think like the CPU, GPU, this new cases will happen very quickly in the next year or maybe need to wait for until second half of next year?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I can't disclose which quarter we're going to deliver, but we already have these new customers for short.

U
Unknown Analyst

No problem.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. But I think according to the major HPC makers, I think we're even not seeing they are slowing down. So...

U
Unknown Analyst

Yes, it's very grateful, because the demand is very strong. Yes.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Because you probably heard recently, they decide to increase the testing times. So initially, they plan to just test for 1 hour, but now has been extended to 2 and probably move on to 2.5 hours. So it depends on the service results and performance, it's highly possible to go like maybe over 2.5 hours. So I think system level test takes a very important role compared to other process, we believe.

U
Unknown Analyst

I see. It's very, very great news. Okay. So I think my last question is regarding to your metrology business. I saw like the market is very excited to this business and first, congratulations for your like cutting into this CoWoS blue ocean market.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

And I'm very curious about that the reason why the foundry client choose our product is because the 79 81 model can detect RDL layer precisely in the CoWoS L like in this process? Or is there any reason that they choose our product, but not other peers?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Of course, we are the local small player if we got qualified, definitely, we are not only outstanding on the performance, but also the throughput. So yes, I think we will definitely have other opportunity for the advanced package, not only limited to CoWoS.

U
Unknown Analyst

I see. Okay. So my last question will be, it seems like Blackwell, this chip is tended to be packaged by CoWoS L, but not the CoWoS S. So do we think like we can replace the former metrology machine in foundry customers. So it's not just NP7 and AP8. Do we think we can have more opportunity in the AP6 or even older fab?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We are trying on it...

Operator

Next one, Arthur Lai, Macquarie.

A
Arthur Lai
analyst

Hope you stay safe and dry. So I think a lot of analysts and Jennifer already discussed with the product. So maybe I switch gear to the Page 7. I do surprise about the free cash flow actually for the 3 quarters, we already reached TWD 1.9 billion and also the year-over-year comparison is also surprising. I guess, there's some good things going on is driven by business. So my question is quite simple. Can we talk about like long-term shareholder return plan or dividend policy? Anything to share with our long-term investors?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

You mean -- but I think our ROE actually reached our targets, which is like over 20%. So you mean.

A
Arthur Lai
analyst

So will we consider to increase the payout ratio in the future?

P
Paul Ying
executive

I think the 70%, I think right now is pretty much the highest one.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

We have extra...

P
Paul Ying
executive

We have extra cash, yes. But right now, I think we still maintain that somewhere like 70% payout ratio.

A
Arthur Lai
analyst

Yes, yes. Good enough. And the other thing is if we look at the -- in the future, we have a more semi and photonics business in terms of the total revenue. Will it change our free cash flow? For example, will it become healthy, healthy, better and stronger?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I think our new factories, I mean, our Phase 2 is under progress at the moment, and then the Phase 2 will not be ready until '26. So I think if your question point on like improved cash flows, maybe not for these 2 years. Yes.

A
Arthur Lai
analyst

Okay. Okay. Got you. Yes, the reason I ask this question is, do we have like -- so what's the account receivable difference between the ATS and also the semiconductor business? So is all the same AIoT days or it's actually case by case different by the segment?

P
Paul Ying
executive

I think, it's pretty similar. I don't think it will be -- yes. I don't think that will be a very big difference on that.

A
Arthur Lai
analyst

Okay. So yes, I don't have any question. Congrats for the strong result.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Next one, Wern Juan Chng, HSBC.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Just a couple of follow-up questions again. So, on metrology, right, just to clarify, obviously, your other competitors like Dragonfly and the product and all that, they have a very strong software AI learning platform, which essentially allow them to assess alignment CSV better. And so my thinking is that -- my thought is just that -- you will likely be second source supply 10% to 20% unless -- obviously, the trust is there between you and your main customer for sure. But I'm just curious to hear your thoughts on how you are going to compete with this U.S., Israeli competitors moving forward. What is your competitive edge in product? And I have a couple of follow-up questions.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Wern Juan, okay, several issues I would like to clarify it, because just I keep repeat, these vendor selection process already complete, and this is very restrict and long-term process. If one's being conclude, there won't be a competition issue. And the only thing I could tell you today is, our current order on hand is already -- I mean, based on the units, is already over the existing makers. So because at that time, our total order on hand is already more than the existing -- current existing vendors.

Okay. So -- okay, let me recap a bit, okay? The conclusions we just made back to maybe August and September is new capacity all go to Chroma. And how to replace existing, there will be another issue subject to discussion. So how to take action and how to replace will be subject to the clients' strategies, and we are unable to comment. So there won't be so-called market share issue.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

That's extremely helpful, Jennifer. My second question is, you mentioned 2x to 2.5x increase in test time. So SLT is obviously 20 minutes more than 1 to 2 minutes for existing burn-in final test, et cetera.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

No system level tester -- hold on system-level tester for Edge series, testing time is 0.5 hour to 1 hour. Initially, the plan for Blackwell, which is GB series around 1 hours. But because recently, they find that GB series is too critical and too complicated. So they decide to extend 2 hours to 2.5 hours. This is already decision made.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

So Blackwell's offer is 2x to 2.5x. Is that correct -- if I mean, is that correct?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes, this is already the final decision. So that is why, I guess, all of us got the increasing orders. Remember, I mentioned to you before, a number of units, it depends on the cycle time. If the cycle time increase, then unit number will have to increase.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Okay. Okay. Your EV -- okay, last question. Your EV power orders, right, given some of your key customers have reported over the last week or so, about -- they are guiding about 30% to 40% decline. Your EV power orders are about 30% down this year. Fair to assume EV power declined by half, EV power declined by half, right, essentially?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

I haven't really...

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Because the U.S. is weak, Europe, I mean, give or take, plus or minus, still having competition from China, still strong, but if you combine U.S. and Europe together, they still decline by half. Is that something you have internally assessed or comment.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. That's a fact. We -- just like we mentioned, we think the power business down about 22% in the first 3 quarters mainly come from the low sentiment CapEx from EV and ESS sectors. And we even guide like fourth quarter will be lower than third quarter. So, how much will be down to this is not something -- as I said, we couldn't give or provide a guidance with numbers. But I think this kind of guidance is already very clear.

W
Wern Juan Chng
analyst

Just to share with you -- I mean, some of your customers at least about 30% to 50% down. But I think that's within range, your semi and metrology should offset.

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Okay. We are taking the last questions.

Operator

Next one, Ken Chee of [ Ken Capital ].

U
Unknown Analyst

I just want to clarify some previous answers in case I mislead. So first of all, for the SLT, do you just mention the momentum for next year could be similar to the momentum for this year?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes, overall semiconductor sector system level testers. This is based on the customers' preliminary order guidance.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. Okay. And second is about the metrology. You just say for the all new capacity, that will all go to Chroma, right?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

New capacity, yes.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then so do you expect it to be multiple billion revenue for next year?

J
Jennifer Chieng
executive

Yes. Okay. Thank you, everyone's participation. So operator, can you close out the call? Thank you.

P
Paul Ying
executive

Thank you.

Operator

All right. Thank you for all your questions. That will be the end of the conference. We thank you for your participation in Chroma's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.chroma.com.tw/investor/index under the Investor Relations section. You may now disconnect. Take care, and goodbye.