United Microelectronics Corp
TWSE:2303
| US |
|
Johnson & Johnson
NYSE:JNJ
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
| US |
|
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
NYSE:BRK.A
|
Financial Services
|
| US |
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Mastercard Inc
NYSE:MA
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
UnitedHealth Group Inc
NYSE:UNH
|
Health Care
|
| US |
|
Exxon Mobil Corp
NYSE:XOM
|
Energy
|
| US |
|
Pfizer Inc
NYSE:PFE
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
| US |
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Nike Inc
NYSE:NKE
|
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
|
| US |
|
Visa Inc
NYSE:V
|
Technology
|
| CN |
|
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
NYSE:BABA
|
Retail
|
| US |
|
3M Co
NYSE:MMM
|
Industrial Conglomerates
|
| US |
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co
NYSE:JPM
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Coca-Cola Co
NYSE:KO
|
Beverages
|
| US |
|
Walmart Inc
NYSE:WMT
|
Retail
|
| US |
|
Verizon Communications Inc
NYSE:VZ
|
Telecommunication
|
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
41.45
57.7
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches TWD.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
NYSE:JNJ
|
US |
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
NYSE:BRK.A
|
US |
|
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
US |
|
|
Mastercard Inc
NYSE:MA
|
US |
|
|
UnitedHealth Group Inc
NYSE:UNH
|
US |
|
|
Exxon Mobil Corp
NYSE:XOM
|
US |
|
|
Pfizer Inc
NYSE:PFE
|
US |
|
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
US |
|
|
Nike Inc
NYSE:NKE
|
US |
|
|
Visa Inc
NYSE:V
|
US |
|
|
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
NYSE:BABA
|
CN |
|
|
3M Co
NYSE:MMM
|
US |
|
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co
NYSE:JPM
|
US |
|
|
Coca-Cola Co
NYSE:KO
|
US |
|
|
Walmart Inc
NYSE:WMT
|
US |
|
|
Verizon Communications Inc
NYSE:VZ
|
US |
This alert will be permanently deleted.
United Microelectronics Corp
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Welcome everyone to UMC's 2018 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet. Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit our website, www.umc.com, under the Investor Relations, Investors, Events section. And now, I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC. Mr. Lin, you may begin.
Thank you, and welcome to the UMC conference call for the third quarter of 2018. I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, President of UMC; and Mr. Chitung Liu, the CFO of UMC. In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the third quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's forecast and the fourth quarter 2018 guidance. Once our President and CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A session. UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com, under the Investors Financial section.
During this conference, we will make forward-looking statements based on the management's current expectation and beliefs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risk that may be beyond company's control. For these risks, please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC securities authorities. Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Chitung -- Mr. Chitung Liu, to discuss our third quarter 2018 financial results.
Thank you, Michael. I'd like to go through the third quarter '18 investor conference presentation material, which can be downloaded from our website.
Starting on Page 3, the third quarter of 2018 consolidated revenue was TWD 39.39 billion with gross margin at 17.6%. The net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent was TWD 1.72 billion, and the earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 0.14. So for the revenue of $39.3 billion is 1.4% quarter-over-quarter growth and also 4.4% year-over-year growth. And this is also record-high numbers in terms of quarterly revenue for UMC. The utilization rate for the last quarter was 94% compared to 97% in the second quarter of 2018.
On page 4, the third quarter income statement. Other than 1.4% quarterly revenue growth, gross profit margin also extended slightly to 17.6% and grow 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 6.9 billion. And we issued employee stock program to our employee in the third quarter, which costs about TWD 500 million also additional expenses in the third quarter. And as a result, our operating expenses increased TWD 500 million also accordingly or 9.4% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 5.7 billion. And operating income, including other operating income expenses, is now about TWD 2.4 billion, a decline of 23.5% sequentially, and net nonoperating income in the third quarter was TWD 1.6 billion loss compared to the TWD 1 billion loss in the second quarter. The main reason was the weak renminbi change -- exchange rate in the third quarter caused UMC to book unrealized TWD 1 billion also ForEx loss in the third quarter. And the income tax estimated to be about TWD 632 million expenses in the third quarter. So net-net, we are seeing about TWD 1.7 billion net income attributable to stockholder of the parent or an EPS of TWD 0.14 in the third quarter compared to TWD 0.3 in the second quarter.
On Page 5, for the first 3 quarters of the year, revenue grew 2.7% year-over-year to TWD 115 billion and gross profit rate was 15.8% or TWD 18.2 billion and the operating income margin increased to 5.5% from 4.1% in the previous year to TWD 6.38 billion and EPS for the first 3 quarters has reached $0.73 per share compared to $0.64 in the first 3 quarters of 2017.
On Page 6, our cash position has continued to pile up due to slower CapEx and the cash level has now reached TWD 81.5 billion. I think this is reason high number and for the stockholder equity numbers is now TWD 212 billion at the end of third quarter 2018.
And on Page 7, we experienced some price increase for our average selling price in the third quarter by about 1% also and mainly due to the 8-inch wafer price increase.
And on Page 8, our Asia revenue now is the largest portion of our sales breakdown, account for 52% of the total pie and U.S. now is 34%.
On Page 9, the IDM and Fabless breakdown remain the same. And on Page 10, communication portion has come down to 43% compared to 47% in the previous quarter, which made up by computer and some other revenue contribution.
And on Page 11, our 14-nanometer revenue also has come to a record high of 5% in the single quarter, and 28-nanometer revenue at the same time declined to 13% compared to 15% in the previous quarter.
On Page 12, we have prepared the quarterly capacity table for your reference. We continue to see some capacity expansion in our Singapore and also Xiamen fabs.
And on Page 13, our annual budget for CapEx remain unchanged around TWD 1.1 billion. Of course, the actual number still depends on how the cash payment schedule is for the fourth quarter of the year. So the above is the summary of UMC results for the third quarter 2018. More details are available in the report, which can be -- has been posted on our website. I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Wang.
Thank you, Chitung. Good evening, everyone. Here, I would like to update the third quarter operating results of UMC. In the third quarter, foundry revenue reached a record high, as Chitung mentioned, to TWD 39.33 billion, up 1.4% from second quarter '18. Foundry operating margin was 6.4% and utilization rate reached 94%, bringing wafer shipment to 1.8 million 8-inch equivalent wafers, loading across 8-inch and mature 12-inch technologies continued to operate at full capacity. Thus the company generated TWD 10.16 billion of free cash flow during the quarter. In addition, we saw an increase in computing-related applications, which offset a decline in the communications segment. From a longer-term perspective, we believe new and essential semiconductor components will continue to strengthen our specialty technology business. For example, Allegro MicroSystems, a leader in high-performance power and sensor solutions, signed a multi-year manufacturing agreement with UMC to ensure long-term capacity support for their growing wafer requirement in industrial and automotive segment.
Looking into the next quarter, we are seeing a softening of wafer demand from customers, partly due to a continued softness in the entry MEM smartphones. The recent escalation of the trade engine, rising global crude oil prices and continuous weakening of the emerging market currencies could further increase uncertainties in the broader economy. Meanwhile, we will continue to execute our strategy and invest in return-driven goals, while moderating the expansion of advanced technologies. We are confident that UMC's globalization efforts will increase our customers' competitive edge through geopolitical risk mitigation while enhancing shareholder value to preserve the best interest of all our stakeholders. That was our third quarter results.
Now let me go over the fourth quarter 2018 guidance. Wafer shipments will show a decrease of 4% to 5% and ASP in U.S. dollar will show a decline of 4% to 5%. Gross profit margin will be in the mid-teens percentage -- low teens percentage range and capacity utilization rate will be in the high 80% range. For foundry CapEx of 2018, it will be a USD 1.1 billion. That concludes my comments. Thank you all for your attention. Now we are ready for questions.
[Operator Instructions] And our first question is coming from Bill Lu from UBS.
First question is on your guidance for the fourth quarter. I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the sequential decline, where that is coming from in terms of applications and geometry?
Well, for the wafer shipments, we anticipate about 4% to 5% decline, mainly coming out from the 28-nanometers. If we look at from the application, we actually see, across the board, the weakness, the strong -- the most weakness will be coming from computers, and within the computers, the cryptocurrency will be the area that will see -- the weakest area, and then followed by the consumer and communication.
Great. Now there is a lot of uncertainties, I think, for tech general. When you speak to your customers, what are they telling you looking out into, for example, 1Q of next year? Do you have any -- can you give us some hints as how 1Q is progressing?
I mean, Bill, we typically don't want to give up more than a quarter. But at this point, we do see the market uncertainty will continue beyond Q4. So we're going to be very cautious about outlook of the Q1 right now.
Okay. My second question is on gross margin. It looks to me like Q3 gross margin is a little bit better-than-expected, but the decline in Q4 is maybe a little bit sharper. Can you talk about both?
Yes. If we look at our Q4 composition, you'll find we actually generated about 5% revenue coming out from the 14, and the 14 give us much higher ASP. So from the branded ASP point of view, we cited 8-inch -- price slightly increase of 8-inch. We actually see a much better ASP in Q3 so that should give us a boost about a little bit on gross margin side. And when we go into the Q4, given the uncertainty and the weakness in the cryptocurrency market, along with our limited customer base, so the 14 demand will be very volatile. So I would have to say the Q4 mainly the impact coming out on the cryptocurrency area of the 14 nanometers.
Understood. And so if I can ask one last question. On your CapEx, you spent a little more than 500 out of your total budget of 1.1. Was there any reason to think that CapEx is reaccelerating 4Q?
We're still on schedule in terms of our budget CapEx. But this is not a big number in absolute dollar terms. So the real payment schedule sometimes could be moving forward or pushed out later. So we think the number is -- in the ballpark is about right, but the actual payment and the detail of the month won't be confirmed until the end of the quarter.
And next, we'll have Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.
I wanted to ask a question just about the 8-inch where you've seen full capacity and tightness. Now factoring in the slowdown, if you could give a view how 8-inch, and also the mature nodes look, both in terms of full utilization and tightness continuing and plans, if that's the case, to continue to see capacity additions and price increases there? Or if you're seeing any change in momentum on the 8-inch?
Okay. The -- for the 8-inch, we have to remain optimistic -- cautious about the 8-inch outlook. For our Q4 loading, we have pretty good confidence that we remain fully loaded in Q4 2018, mainly driving by some consumer segments of customer. And given we have a much broader and diverse customer base, we think we have a better chance to mitigate our 8-inch loading. So in Q4, we still feel comfortable about the fully-loaded situation. Now the question for the pricing increase, some of the price increase is truly also coming from the product mix improvement, and given the market's uncertainty and we need to keep that option open from mitigating the demand changes and I don't anticipate significant pricing difference in Q4. We probably see a fully loaded and with a pretty flat ASP projection in Q4 on 8-inch to date.
Okay. Great. And then if you could talk a little bit more about the advanced nodes. On 40-nanometer with the decline, I'm curious how much you think is business environment and tied to smartphone versus if you're seeing any application migration from 40 to more advanced nodes like 28? And then also if you could talk about the 28 where it's declining, how you're seeing that also in the business environment versus just say, a decline in number of applications? I think in the past you had an issue from some of your high-volume customers switching strategy. But just how's the outlook for 28? How much is macro versus just issues with the products you're running?
Well, okay, that's quite a bit of questions. Let me first start off with your previous question about the mature 12-inch. If we break it down to mature 12-inch on the 55, 65, 90 area, we remain pretty confident about our loading situation going into Q4. So that said, there's some called the 40-nanometers. And we do see some decline on 40-nanometers and we see some product migration on 40-nanometer as well. But we do believe the 40-nanometer loading will be a temporary issue. It will recover to our corporate average level in the foreseeable future, but near term, we'll probably see some decline. The -- in terms -- where the softness is coming from, again, it's coming from the low-end MEM smartphone area as well as sound and node migration like the WiFi application, okay. As far as your question about the follow-on applications for 40, we see a technology migration from consumer MCU high voltage, RF and connectivity product will migrate into the 40s. So there will be a continuous pipeline going into 40. That's also the reason we believe that 40 loading will recover back to the corporate average level. So that's on the 40.
Let's go to the 28. And on the higher level, we do see a worldwide demand of 28 will remain flat and the 28-nanometer may experience some of the overcapacity situation for the next years. And so that's the overall market situation. In the near term, our 28-nanometer technology business will become post to a more fragmented and small volume type of customer, which we reported in the previous conference call as well. And we see that more and more coming in the second wave is more of those fragmented, it's more volume type of customer. And this type of customer will require higher engineering efforts and take much longer to support and ramp. So that will make the UMC recovery appear probably prolonged, okay. So at the same time, we see that capacity oversupply situation in the next year. But -- although the volume is probably lighter, we will continue to see many of our products tape outs in our engagement today and also projected in the next 12 months. So over a longer period of time, I think that will still help us get back to where we want to be, and I think it will also significant diversify our customer base as well. And so that's sort of what outlook on 2018. I hope I covered all of your questions.
Yes. That was great. And just a quick follow-up to that. I guess, with 40 and 28 loading coming down in the near term, the CapEx this year like, I think, you're confident to still get to close to $1.1 billion, but you added 5% more capacity. So I guess the initial view into next year would be lower capacity growth and lower CapEx. So if you could share kind of how you're thinking at this stage on CapEx outlook?
Yes. I think the next year the CapEx is on the downside. But again, I want to emphasize this $1.1 billion is already a pretty small number in absolute dollar terms. And the magnitude of decrease will be limited next year. We will report the numbers in the coming quarter -- quarterly conference call. But for the current year, again, it largely depends on the payment terms and payment schedules. And it will minorly alter the final number of this year's CapEx.
And next one is coming from Sebastian Hou from CLSA.
My first question is to follow on the 8-inch utilization rate. So I know that you just mentioned that still fully loading in fourth quarter, but how about being selective on the product mix? Can you still be that selective right now in 4Q? Or are you actually resuming doing some low -- ASP low margin products?
Well, I mean, the product mix will change in the Q4 as we're seeing some of the application actually see some weakness. But given some broader customer base, we do have some other products to mitigate that, the main changes. And among all those customer base today is all selective customer and all selected product area. So we see very insignificant changes in terms of ASP level.
Okay. In terms of those segments that you see some weakness, are those specifically related to automotive and industrial?
Are you talking about the weakness area or you actually just...
Yes, yes, the weakness area.
I see. Well, actually across-the-board from consumer, communication and computer as well as automotive. And to date, the computers seem -- is the weakest area.
Okay. I'm actually asking about the 8-inch, specifically.
Right. And the -- on the 8-inch, the computer is weak. Automotive is also weak. Yes.
Okay. Got it. But you can mitigate that by some consumer application.
Yes, that's right.
Okay. And a second -- I'd -- also to follow on that is I remember you had expansion planned in your Hejian fab in China. Then I just wonder, is that still on schedule?
Yes. I mean, that's still on schedule. And we still have confidence in terms of our 8-inch outlook. So we'll be -- that is still ongoing. We anticipate about 2% increase for the year, overall on 8-inch, 2% on 8-inch capacity increase.
For '19 -- 2019?
2018, this year.
Oh, 2018. And, how about next year?
Next year, we still have to find space for the expansion, but the space is very limited. We don't see a whole lot of opportunity to increase the 8-inch capacity.
Oh, I remember that you had a plan to expand your Chinese 8-inch fab for next year. I remember, it is like 10-K capacity increase coming like some time second quarter or mid of next year. I'm asking, is that still on schedule?
Yes. That's still on track, yes.
Right. So based on that, your 8-inch capacity will still increase next year because of the expansion there?
That's correct, yes.
Okay. Okay. Can I ask about the -- your collaboration with the Fu-Chang Ching Huang government on the DRAM side? So any new update, progress on the pile around or mass production over there?
We cannot really comment on there. This is really 2 different companies and the collaboration is rather limited to technology transfer only. So we are working on the final stage for the first generation we try to develop for Qin Wang Company. So this is the latest status. As for Qin Wang's status, we cannot comment on that.
Okay. So don't you say you're at the final stage in terms of your R&D contribution at the final stage?
For the first generation development, yes.
Development, which means that if you're at the final stage, which means that you will reach -- probably reach the production pretty soon?
Well, there will be time -- lead time or learning curve period in terms of technology versus initial production. But again, we are in charge of this technology development part and production part is really up to Qin Wang.
Okay. Got it. And the next question is on the, I think, in the past few quarters you have mentioned about the shortage spike on trends of the railway for materials, and how do you see that so far and going to 2019 in terms of the supply sources in terms of quantity and pricing?
We actually start seeing less of a price increase issue. We're focused on the supply area and we are engaging with our suppliers for the long-term supply discussion. And I think, we -- the situation is more in control now. I won't say we're very safe now, but I think, it's much better, it's actually improved.
And this is from UMC's perspective and mainly due to the longer term -- longer-term contract we have entered with our supplier and we have no intention to comment on the general market situation for the rollover.
Right, right, right. I'm just trying to understand whether there will continue to be some negative margin impacts on the price increase on the raw material into 2019 and '20? Would there be?
Not at this point. We're actually seeing the pricing start fluctuating, as it is in our case, yes.
Okay. Got it. Last question from me is regarding your Asia listing plan. Is this on schedule given the very weak Asia market recently?
We don't have a schedule. We just are doing all the filing and document preparation at this point. So we are doing as quickly as we can. It is a lengthy process. So we are still filing and preparing all the document at this point.
Right. In terms of a very rough timing, is it more possible sometime next year, but not this year, right?
It's really not up to us. I think all we do is once we have all the documents ready in the acceptable format, we will deliver or submit our application. And once we've done that, we will also make a public announcement.
And the next question is coming from the Roland Shu from Citigroup.
First question for your 4Q wafer shipment guidance. You said it will be kind of about 4% to 5% quarter-on-quarter and it will be many from the 28-nanometer. So I just calculated so that means for 28-nanometer wafer shipment in 4Q probably will be declined by more than 50% from 3Q? And so question is on your -- how is your 28-nanometer loading utilization now in 3Q and 4Q?
Well, first of all, we cannot endorse your 50% speculation. The real numbers are a lot less than that. Our loading for 8-inch and mature 12-inch will stay fully loaded in the quarter -- fourth quarter this year. And I did say in the leading edge, including 28 and 14 will be below corporate average and given our guidance of high 80 in the Q4 for the whole company, I think, it might be quite easy for you to calculate the average loading for the NAND 4 part.
Okay. Yes. For -- say -- I think for this 12X, the fab in Fujitsu. So have you figured out how to link up 12X capacity to 28k from our current 17k? [Foreign Language]
The 25k of economic skill level is always our target, but that's still subject to our demand outlooks and given the current demand outlooks, we're putting a pause on the 17k, but we can reactivate that any time when we start seeing some demand changes.
Okay. So there is no planned schedule for the further expansion to 25k? Am I right?
There is some scenario that we are currently to discuss. There is no firm scenario yet.
Okay. Understood. Second question is for 14-nanometer now was the 5% of total revenue in 3Q. So we'd like to know how much revenue upside from 14-nanometer going forward given you are not investing in 14-nanometer anymore.
Well, I kind of touched that earlier, and we have very limited customer base on the 14 and it's actually more associated with the cryptocurrency, and because the cryptocurrency market is down -- witness -- we actually see some declining on the 14 in the upcoming quarters. So at this point we have no plans for expanding our 14 capacity. Although we have engaged many of the non-crypto 14-nanometer customers, and those customers will remain on track with production more into 2020, and by then we can see if we do need additional capacity to grow the 14 business. But even at that time, we're still going to base on ROI and the business justification to do that and to pursue that. So that's kind of where we are on the 14.
Okay. For -- it sounds like in the near-term now you won't have the capacity expansion plan on 14-nanometer and also now you are seeing some demand weakness from your cryptocurrency customer on 14-nanometer. So is there any risk that you cannot run 28-nanometer mass production in China if your 14-nanometer demand has been totally gone? Will it be a risk for your 28-nanometer production in China?
No. This is -- once you hit volume production, which we did many quarters ago, you are allowed to do a minus-run technology in China, not to mention this is a proven 5% of revenue in the previous quarter. So there's no such risk.
And the next question is coming from Szeho Ng from China Renaissance Securities.
Actually my question is on minority interest.
Sorry, can you speak a little bit louder.
Can you hear me now?
Yes.
For minority interest it has been at a pretty high level for 2 consecutive quarters. So I just want to get your input on how to moderate that for Q4 and probably going into 2019?
You mean minority interest?
Right, right, right.
Okay. That's mainly because our Xiamen Fab 12X is experiencing early-stage losses and we are currently -- recently increased our holding to 55% as a group and 35% of the loss will be shared by our investor partners and that percentage is unlikely to change in the near term and the rest is up to the operating loss or profit, how to divide it over the -- through the minority share ownership. So I would say the main focus is still how to we improve the operating result for our 12X operation in Xiamen.
So we could expect the minority interest to hold up at current around $1.5 billion per quarter?
Again, it's a percentage of 35% thanks to our Xiamen losses. So the 35% will become OpEx for the near term. The rest is really after the Xiamen losses.
Okay. All right. Okay. And second question on payout ratio. Would you consider to increase the payout ratio for next year going forward keeping the very strong free cash flow generation?
Yes, it's our intention to maintain at least high payout ratio for our dividend, cash dividend payout. For the last year our payout ratio was already 88% so it's a pretty high number. And of course, UMC will continue to stay at the high payout ratio from our dividend policy point of view.
And next we have Gokul Hariharan from JP Morgan.
First of all, on gross margins, in Q4, could you talk a little bit about what are the drivers for gross margin going down to low teens given most of the weakness appears to be at 28 and mature 12-inch and 18 seems to be holding up quite well. Is it primary utilization or are there other factors that are driving the gross margin lower? And I had one other follow-up question.
Well, I mean, it's a combination of the ASP and the loading because the -- both 14 and 28 has shown weakness in demand. So on a blended ASP point of view, it does affect that and given the lower blended ASP and the lighter loading, that contributed to the gross margin impact.
But even with the higher mix of 8-inch and mature 12-inch, it's not really helping on gross margins or is that how we should think about it? Or are there changes in gross margin within the mature 12-inch and 8-inch process nodes as well?
No. It's mainly coming out from the advanced node.
Yes. The sensitivity for ASP to our gross margin rate is about 0.6. So if we're seeing 4% to 5% drop in ASP that would suggest a 2 to 3 percentage point knockout in terms of gross margin.
Okay. Understood. That's very clear. Also, could you talk a little bit about how much of the confidence you have on the 8-inch process nodes staying relatively full going into, let's say, Q1. We are starting to hear a lot about automotive and industrial demand being weak, I think, DI talking about demand weakness across the board. What do you see in terms of your backlog given that 8-inch demand was extremely tight in Q2 and probably early part of Q3 as well?
Well, you're right. The market does definitely start seeing some softness in the 8-inch area and now the backlog has also lightened up. But for Q4, we do believe that we can remain fully utilized. And for beyond Q4, we'll be a little bit cautious about that given the uncertainty of the market.
Okay, understood. Just one quick one. If we are putting a temporary hold on the CapEx expansion for 2018 dle in 12X fab, where will you focus the spending in 2019 dc on CapEx if you still think that CapEx is going to be lower than this year but not much lower. Like if you were, take a hypothetical situation, you don't have any new capacity addition next year, where would be your maintenance CapEx be?
Well we have about TWD 200 million plus in terms of maintenance CapEx per se and we will also invest in some 8-inch wafer capacity as we discussed earlier mainly in Hejian. Also, we will continue to increase our flexibility in terms of cross-technology capacity support to each other. This may not lead to capacity extension, but it will significantly help our flexibility in terms of mitigate the certain node capacity up and down -- I mean, demand up and down. And lastly, we continue to invest in small manufacturing AI-related type of efficiency enhancement for overall capacity. So that will -- that kind of program will also continue into 2019.
Okay, so is it fair to say maybe TWD 500 million, TWD 600 million is what your CapEx could be if we don’t really spend incremental CapEx on 28 next year?
Again, this number in semiconductor foundry space given our market share, I think, it's coming down to a pretty low number. And all the project has highlighted, and we will continue to invest in the parts, the full spectrum of technology for existing geometry, and even though we are getting moderating in the leading edge node, investment for capacity, but we will not stop, actually we will continue to accelerate for the parts of the technology for existing geometry. So I cannot really give you numbers, but all I can say is, we will be very disciplined in terms of capacity expansion and the number of CapEx will be lower than this year for 2019.
[Operator Instructions] And the next question is coming from Sebastian Hou from CLSA.
I have 2 follow-ups. The first is the -- for Shandon. In terms of depreciation, can you remind us about depreciation for this year, and also the initial outlook for next year?
It's still the same schedule, so we're talking about flattish depreciation expenses for 2018 versus 2017. And we are seeing about 5% also year-over-year decrease in 2019 versus 2018 and followed by more decline in depreciation if we continue the current CapEx trend.
And then how significant decline would that be in 2020?
Of course, eventually, we will see more than double-digit decline. But I mean, this is a long time spend for this kind of projection. So let's stick to this year and also next year for now.
Okay. And a second follow-up is in terms of the growth strategy, apart from organic growth and -- noticed you also made an acquisition of Fujitsu Mie fab this year, how about the future M&A strategy? And are you looking proactively on this -- on some potential acquisition opportunity?
The answer is definitely yes. That's always an option for future growth. Our strategy is simple, it's we're going to be focused on the legacy market and at the same time we will cost-effective path to expansion and the -- any potential acquisition will give us that option. And so we'll continue considering that as well as other option as well so acquisition is definitely part of it.
So assuming if there is a target, is there an opportunity? That opportunity is not just to give you the low-cost or mature capacity, those will come with advanced capacity that's not making any profit. Will you still consider that?
Well, there's many things to consider and it depends what that justifies and so we're going to keep very disciplined with our policy on the cash -- use of cash, and there's many different areas as long as we believe it will benefit our shareholders value and we will do so and the different approach to it. Acquisition is one. Organic investing in capacity expansion also is one consideration, buying stock back. Always, we're going to consider all options and we're now ruling out what you mentioned, but it depends if that benefits our shareholders.
So with that kind of a growth strategy in mind given that, I think, this is very -- could be some -- could be quite hard -- or if you don't know where and when this opportunity will come and will close a deal. So I know you also want to maximize the cash return to shareholders, but we probably will not see over 100% dividend payout in the near term given that you want to give yourself some -- leave yourself with some flexibility for potential acquisition. Is that the right way to think about it?
Yes, well we're at 88% payout ratio already. So it won't increase that much even we increase the payout ratio to over 100%, say 120%. So it's not entirely impossible for UMC to have over 100% payout ratio. But what we do want to do it in a consistent steady way in terms of shareholder returns. So this has very little correlations to the potential M&A if there's any.
I'm sorry, I just have another follow-up because earlier I think you scoped the question, you mentioned about the beyond fourth quarter you're also cautious on the 8-inch outlook so -- which means that you're less confident on the first quarter '19 8-inch being -- staying at 100% UTR?
Well, we're optimistically cautious. Let's put it this way because it's kind of far out, and we do see indication of the market softness. So we don't want to over commit ourselves by going into Q1 via the comments, but a couple mentioned -- asked -- and I do want to give him some kind of indication that we are cautiously looking into Q1 right now, yes.
And there seems no more questions at this point. Thank you for all your questions. That concludes today's Q&A session. I will turn things over to UMC's Head of IR for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for attending this conference today. We appreciate your questions. As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at ir@umc.com. Have a good day. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for third quarter 2018. Thank you for your participation in UMC's conference. There will be a webcast replay within an hour. Please visit www.umc.com, under the Investors, Events section. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.