Wheaton Precious Metals Corp

TSX:WPM

Earnings Call Analysis

Wheaton Maintains Strong Growth Outlook

In the third quarter of 2023, Wheaton Precious Metals delivered robust performance despite operational challenges. Salobo's gold production soared by 56% to 69,000 ounces, with significant increases in throughput and recovery; and Constancia's output grew by 24% for silver and 164% for gold, driven by rich deposits and improving processes. However, no production from Penasquito was reported due to a resolved labor dispute. The overall guidance remains steady, forecasting 600,000 to 660,000 gold equivalent ounces for 2023, reflecting Wheaton's resilient business model in a high-interest environment. Looking ahead, impressive organic growth is set to exceed 40%, with a target of 810,000 to 850,000 ounces annually by 2027, and ultimately surpassing 900,000 ounces by the year's end.

Financial Health and Investment Activities in Q3 2023

During the third quarter, Wheaton Precious Metals displayed clear financial discipline and growth through strategic actions. The company allocated approximately $90 million in upfront cash for the Artemis' Blackwater project and disbursed $67 million in dividends. These steps signify Wheaton's commitment to sustainable growth and rewarding shareholders. Additionally, the organization reported a modest net cash inflow of $5 million, resulting in a strong cash and cash equivalents position of $834 million as of September 30, 2023. This level of liquidity, complemented by a $2 billion undrawn credit facility, indicates significant financial flexibility and foresight for future investments and acquisitions.

Operational Performance and Dividend Announcement

Wheaton celebrated a robust third quarter with commendable revenue, earnings, and strong operational cash flow, leading to the declaration of a 15% quarterly dividend. This announcement highlights the company's consistency in achieving solid financial results while maintaining its commitment to return value to its shareholders.

Projected Growth and Production Guidance

Randy Smallwood, Wheaton's executive, presented a confident outlook for the company's future, reiterating the annual production guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 gold equivalent ounces. With a steady improvement seen over the last 18 months, especially with the Salobo operations, the company is poised to reach a run rate close to 35 million tonnes per annum by the end of the next year. As forecasting and risk evaluation are crucial for investors, such steady progress in key projects is very reassuring.

Long-Term Production Expectations

When reflecting on long-term expectations, the company's leadership reinforced their comfort with a production outlook exceeding 900,000 gold equivalent ounces by 2027, suggesting ample organic growth potential that may be currently undervalued by the market. Such anticipations of strong growth trajectories are vital for investors looking for long-term value creation.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Wheaton Precious Metals 2023 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator instructions]. I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded on Friday, November 10, 2023 at 11 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. I will now turn the call over to Emma Murray, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Emma Murray, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for participating in today's call. I'm joined today by Randy Smallwood, Wheaton Precious Metals' President and Chief Executive Officer; Gary Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Haytham Hodaly, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development; and Wes Carson, Vice President, Mining Operations.Please note that for those not currently on the webcast, a slide presentation accompanying this conference call is available in PDF format on the presentations page of our website. Some of the commentary on today's call may contain forward-looking statements, and I would direct everyone to review Slide 2 of the presentation, which contains important cautionary notes regarding such statements.It should be noted that all figures referred to on today's call are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Randy Smallwood, our President and Chief Executive Officer.

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Thank you, Emma, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Wheaton's third quarter results of 2023. I am pleased to announce that our portfolio of long-life, low-cost assets delivered another solid quarter, generating strong metal production and robust cash flows with a number of our assets hitting record quarterly production levels.The importance of having a diversified portfolio of high-quality, low-cost assets was evidenced by Wheaton's ability to deliver solid operating results despite operations at Penasquito being suspended for the entire third quarter. Strong outperformances from Salobo and Constancia resulted in quarter-over-quarter production growth, further highlighting the resilience of our diversified asset base and delivering on our commitment of continuous growth over the next 5 years.Our strong quarterly performance was underscored by significant progress at the expansion of our largest asset, Salobo, which is now expected to reach a throughput capacity of 32 million tonnes per annum in the fourth quarter of 2023. Our growth pipeline of development projects was further derisked in the quarter as Artemis received their Fisheries Act authorization for the Blackwater project, which continues to advance on schedule with first gold pour targeted for the second half of 2024.In addition, Aris Mining announced that they have received approval of their environmental management plan, which now permits the development of the Marmato Lower Mine. These projects are among a few of the assets that are forecast to contribute to our impressive organic growth profile of over 40% production growth in the next 5 years.During this quarter, we are also proud to have been recognized by ESG Investing's corporate ESG awards as the best company for ESG and sustainability in the metals and mining sector.Looking to the remainder of 2023 and given that Penasquito has resumed operations, we are very pleased to confirm our previously forecasted annual guidance of 660 or between 600,000 to 660,000 gold equivalent ounces, albeit with a slightly higher weighting towards gold.In this high interest rate environment, streaming continues to be one of the most attractive sources of capital, and our corporate development team remains exceptionally busy evaluating opportunities.Subsequent to the quarter end, we announced the acquisition of a silver stream on Waterton Copper's Mineral Park Mine for which Haytham will provide an overview on shortly. This latest acquisition is an example of our commitment to enhancing our portfolio with growth that is accretive and sustainable benefiting all stakeholders. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Wes Carson, our Vice President of Operations, who will provide more details on our operating results. Wes?

[Wes Carson, executive]

Thanks, Randy. Good morning. Overall, it was a strong quarter, with production coming in higher than expected which, as Randy highlighted, was driven by strong outperformances at both Salobo and Constancia, partially offset by the temporary suspension at Penasquito.In the third quarter of 2023, Salobo produced 69,000 ounces of attributable gold, an increase of approximately 56% relative to the third quarter of 2022, driven by higher throughput with production from the third concentrator line commencing at the end of 2022 and higher gold recoveries.In the third quarter of 2023, Salobo reached its highest production level since the fourth quarter of 2019 as the ramp-up of the Salobo expansion continues to advance and overall improvements at both Salobo 1 and 2 Continue. The overall Salobo site with the inclusion of the Salobo III expansion is expected to reach a capacity of 32 million tonnes per annum in the fourth quarter of 2023 and full throughput capacity by the end of 2024.In the third quarter of 2023, Constancia produced 700,000 ounces of attributable silver and 19,000 ounces of attributable gold, an increase of approximately 24% and 164%, respectively, relative to the third quarter of 2022.Record quarterly gold production combined with strong solar production as a result of significantly higher grades from the mining of the high-grade zones of the Pampacancha deposit, higher recoveries and higher throughput. As stated by Hudbay, production is expected to continue to benefit from higher grades in the fourth quarter of 2023.Also in the third quarter of 2023, Penasquito had no production resulting from the suspension of operations at the mine, which began on June 7, 2023 due to a labor dispute. On October 13, 2023, Newmont reached a definitive agreement to end the strike and has since begun the safe ramp-up of operations. Newmont expects to reach full operating capacity by the end of the fourth quarter.Due to the delay between production and sales, the impact of Penasquito suspended operations will be reflected in our sales results in the fourth quarter of 2023, resulting in a significant quarter-over-quarter decrease to our reported Penasquito sales volumes. Wheaton's estimated attributable production for 2023 is forecast to be approximately 600,000 to 660,000 gold equivalent ounces, unchanged from our previous guidance.For the 5-year period ending in 2027, the company estimates the average annual production will amount to 810,000 gold equivalent ounces and for the 10-year period ending in 2032, the company estimates the average annual production will amount to 850,000 gold equivalent ounces. This includes sector-leading organic growth of over 40% with total production from our current portfolio increasing to over 900,000 gold equivalent ounces by the end of 2027. That concludes the operations overview. And with that, I will turn the call over to Gary.

[Gary Brown, executive]

Thank you, Wes. As described by Wes, production in the third quarter amounted to 155,000 GEOs, a 6% increase relative to the second quarter of 2023 and consistent with the comparable period of the prior year. Worth noting is that in addition to the quarterly record achieved for gold production at Constancia, Zinkgruvan achieved a new record for silver production, which is a stream that has been part of our portfolio since 2004.Relative to Q3 2022, gold production increased 46%, primarily due to outperformances at Salobo and Constancia, partially offset by a 42% decrease in silver production, due primarily to the now resolved labor dispute at Penasquito and the divestment of the Yauliyacu [ PIMPA ], which occurred during 2022.Sales volumes amounted to 119,000 GEOs, a 14% decrease relative to the second quarter of 2023 and a 12% decrease relative to the comparable period of the prior year. With the year-over-year variance being primarily due to relative changes in ounces produced but not yet delivered or PBND, which reduced sales volumes by 18,000 GEOs, which is simply driven by the timing of shipments.Strong commodity prices, coupled with our solid production base resulted in revenue of $223 million and a gross margin of $127 million and a total cash margin of $173 million. Of this revenue, 65% was attributable to gold, 32% to silver, 2% to palladium and 1% to Cobalt.As at September 30, 2023, approximately 125,000 GEOs were in PBND and cobalt inventory, representing approximately 2.4 months of payable production, which is a level that is slightly higher than the preceding 4 quarters, but within our expected range of 2 to 3 months.G&A expenses amounted to $9 million for the third quarter, and the company anticipates that G&A will total $40 million to $42 million for the year. The company generated $10 million of interest income on its cash balances, $8 million higher than the comparable quarter of the prior year.Adjusted net earnings amounted to $121 million, with the $28 million increase from the prior year due primarily to the higher gross margins and higher interest income. Despite the persistent inflationary environment, Wheaton continued to deliver robust cash operating margins in the second quarter, resulting in cash flow from operations of over $171 million and a quarterly dividend of $0.15 per share, consistent with the third quarter of 2022.During the quarter, Wheaton made total upfront cash payments of approximately $90 million towards Artemis' Blackwater project, along with dividend payments totaling $67 million. Overall, net cash inflows amounted to $5 million in Q3 2023, resulting in cash and cash equivalents as at September 30th of $834 million. This significant cash balance, combined with the fully undrawn $2 billion revolving credit facility and the strength of our forecasted operating cash flows positions the company exceptionally well to satisfy its funding commitments and provides us with the financial flexibility to acquire additional accretive mineral stream interests.That concludes the financial summary. And with that, I will turn the call over to Haytham.

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone. As Randy mentioned, the corporate development team remains exceptionally busy evaluating opportunities, and we're excited to have recently announced a precious metal streaming agreement on Waterton Copper's Mineral Park Mine located in Arizona. Mineral Park Mine is a polymetallic mine currently under construction with production expected to reach full capacity in 2026.Attributable production is forecast to average over 690,000 ounces of silver per year for the first 5 years of production and over 740,000 ounces of silver per year for the life of mine. In exchange, Wheaton will pay Waterton and Copper $115 million in 4 payments during construction. We're excited to welcome Mineral Park in our portfolio and to be partnering with Water and Copper who is investing over $600 million at Mineral Park, which they expect to result in decades of operational excellence at the mine. With that, I'll pass it back to Randy.

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Thank you, Haytham. In summary, Wheaton's third quarter was distinguished by several key highlights. We achieved solid 3-month revenue, earnings and cash flow and declared a 15% quarterly dividend. We maintained our previously announced annual guidance of 600,000 to 660,000 gold equivalent ounces, bolstered by a significant quarter-over-quarter production growth.Our pipeline of development projects was further de-risked, supporting our impressive organic growth profile of over 40% in the next 5 years, and we continue to grow our asset base, welcoming the Mineral Park Mine into our portfolio.Our balance sheet remains one of the strongest in the industry, providing ample capacity to add accretive, high-quality streams into our portfolio. And lastly, we continue to demonstrate leadership and sustainability with sector-leading ESG ratings and external recognition. So with that, I would like to open up the call for questions, operator.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu of CIBC. We have momentarily lost Cosmos. In the meantime, we'll go to our next question from the line of Richard Hatch of Berenberg.

[Richard Hatch, analyst]

Congrats on the very strong set numbers as usual. Just a few questions. Gary, I appreciate the PBND is a difficult one to forecast. But can you help us just a little bit with whether you expect to see Q4 some of that gold release into Q4? That's the first one.

[Gary Brown, executive]

Yes. The buildup primarily came from Salobo during the quarter as they're ramping up the third line here. And so we would expect that, that would come down in Q4. I would say, though, that the 2.4 months average production that sits in PBND right now is not anomalous for us. You look at what happened over the quarter, we had a 23,000 gold equivalent ounce buildup in PBND over the quarter. as compared to 5,000 ounce buildup in Q3 of 2022. So the difference there results in a reduction in sales year-over-year of about 18,000 ounces, which, again, is simply driven by the timing of shipments.

[Richard Hatch, analyst]

Okay. Understood. Second one is just on Salobo. We've finally cut their base metals guidance recently. There is a technical report out there on Salobo, which I guess a few of us have been kind of using as a rule of thumb for what that asset could be. Are you able just to sort of give us any kind of star or flavor as to what you're thinking into '24, just on that one just because it's so important to the sort of the broader piece?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Well, Richard, it's Randy. I'll pipe in here and then let Wes add any finishing statements. They've had great success in terms of ramping up that Line 3 expansion. And as we said in the opening statements, they're going to reach their 32 million tonne per annum average this year, and they're rolling through it. We just had, Wes was down on site and was very impressed with everything that we saw in terms of what's going on down there. So we fully expect that they're going to continue that ramp-up through the course of 2024 and expect that by the end of the year, they'll be satisfying the second phase of the expansion payment, which is 35 million tonnes per annum.The design capacity of that current system right now, line-in 1 and 2 and now line 3 is 36 million tonnes per annum. So I would expect by the end of the next year, they're going to be at a run rate very close to that. So I don't know, Wes, if you can add anything to that.

[Wes Carson, executive]

Yes, I'd just say, I mean, we as a team and myself included down on site 2 weeks ago and just looking at what was going on with the ramp-up there and really getting confidence in how quickly things were ramping up. And I'll say that, I mean, we've seen a steady improvement there over the last 18 months. I mean as you know, we had some challenges there last year with maintenance and just getting things kind of going and it's been a significant improvement over the last 18 months, and that's really continued kind of through this quarter for sure as well. And I think we'll see that continue through next year. And as Randy said, in hitting that kind of 35 million tonne by the next year, I think, is a very viable goal for them to get to.So it's been very impressive to see just the focus the team has had down there and really on working this through and making the improvements they needed to both get Salobo1 and 2 kind of back in line and also that ramp up and really on top 3 has been, I would say, I mean, world class and how quickly they've managed to get that going.

[Richard Hatch, analyst]

Okay. Got you. And then sorry, just last couple. First one on Analyst just travelled down in Portugal. I guess the guide there is just to be 0 until Q2 '25, right?

[Wes Carson, executive]

Yes. That's what we're looking at right now. They've switched over fully to the copper ore mining there, but they are looking at getting back into the zinc in Q2 '25.

[Richard Hatch, analyst]

Okay. Cool. And then the last one, I mean, just if I look at the growth profile, I mean you spent the last few years kind of just doggedly sort of having nice streams that sort of pan out in the midterm. I mean, as I look at it, it seems like you're going to be producing well over 900,000 ounces of gold equivalent, if these sort of all come online over the next few years. I mean is that in line with your thinking? I appreciate your guidance to $850 million on a 10-year average, but you've got a few years where it's perhaps labor has been underperforming a bit. But is that plus 900 still something you're comfortable with because it just sort of feels that there's a lot of growth in this stock that isn't being appreciated by the market?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Yes. I mean, I hate to say it, sometimes it's quite misleading in terms of doing the average because the average, of course, counts this year down in the 600s. And so for us to get to that kind of an average, we will be over 900,000 ounces gold equivalent production by 2027. And I tell you, with the work that Haytham's doing and what the whole team is doing on the corporate development front, but Haytham's team is leading, I'm confident that we'll even have a few more acquisitions that will be adding towards that over the next couple of years. And so I'm incredibly confident. I think one of the things that's important to highlight is the bulk of that growth is actually coming from assets that are already operating in our portfolio, truly organic growth, not greenfield development stuff. And so to have that amount of growth already coming from assets that are in production just gives us all a higher confidence level in terms of getting there. And so Richard, we're at the point of taking Wheaton to a level never seen by any streaming or royalty company in terms of precious metals production, and it's pretty exciting times.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu of CIBC.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

Please, let's try this again.

[Operator]

I And we have just lost Cosmos Chiu again. Again, if you could press star one again. In the meantime, we'll go to our next question from the line of Tanya Jakusconek of Deutsche Scotiabank.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

So I have a couple, if I could. I'm going to start with the guidance for this year. So I just want to make sure that our model is correct. You are maintaining guidance. And I'm just looking at the guidance, and we're just slightly below the lower end of your 600,000 GEOs. So can I just get some guidance for where you think you will be on the gold side, you said more gold exposure? Should I be thinking you would be at the upper end of that 350 range?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Well, we're definitely going to outperform on the gold side. As we've seen, we've seen Constancia doing very well with the Pampacancha zone setting record, gold production out of that asset like significantly record production. But I think what is important to sort of highlight is how well Salobo is doing. As we mentioned, we're very close to them satisfying the first phase of this expansion payment, which means that they have to run at 32 million tonnes per annum. They have to do that for 90 days, which means, I mean they're already running at those levels because to satisfy that average over a 90-day period, that would mean that they're have to exceed at a certain point for a good portion of that 90-day period.And so, we're really impressed with what we've seen on the Vale-based metal side in terms of taking Salobo and bringing it back up to where it's spent most of its life. The first 7 years of our streaming agreements on Salobo, it was always an outperformer, and we think it's well on its way to becoming an outperformer again. And so there's no doubt that the gold is going to be to the high end of that guidance at the cost of silver, obviously, from Penasquito and might even wind up pushing a bit over.We're very comfortable with where we see our guidance. And so it sounds like we're a little bit more optimistic than you are, Tanya.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

I will take the conservative side. Just on Penasquito, just to make sure, are you expecting any contribution in Q4? We have nothing in Q4. And that's again from a ramp-up and then who knows what is shipped out. So we've assumed nothing, but have you assumed something for Q4?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

On the sales side, unlikely. We don't think there's going to be anything on the sales side. And so obviously, production will be ramping up. We'll have something through that. But our approach has been 0 on Penasquito on the sales side.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. Well, at least were the same on that one, Randy. I appreciate the color on that. And then my second question, if I could, on 3. So maybe I'll support at Haytham, if I could, just on Mineral Park and looking at that transaction and when you were thinking about it, what internal rate of return, and you can use whatever silver price you want, but what internal rate of return did this asset generate for you that you thought was well good enough for you to do? It just has had a bit of a checkered history.

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

Sure. So if you look at it based on the current mine life, the current reserve relate of 12 years, which is currently permitted from report. Keep in mind, we think it's actually going to be much, much more than that. Our analysis shows that it's low double-digit returns on this.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. So the price of?

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

Spot price at the time of announcement. Yes.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. I appreciate it. I just want to benchmark and --

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

One of the things to keep in mind there, Tanya, is that yes, as you mentioned, it's had a bit of a checkered history. But with the reinvestment that Waterton Copper has put in, in terms of the expanded capacity on the milling side, one of the challenges that deposit has had is over time as it got deeper, the rock was just getting harder and harder. And the existing billing setup just wasn't sufficient for it to operate. And the investment that we've seen Waterton put into it, we think is truly setting it up for long-term prosperity. It's a game changer on this asset in terms of that capacity on the front end of the mill. And as you know, we are already familiar with the Orebody itself, but the challenges in the past, I think, really related to a dated infrastructure, dated mill setup that just wasn't capable of dealing with the changes in the Orebody.The new investments, I can tell you, our team, our metallurgical team went down had to look at, we're very impressed with what we see coming out of that asset. So we're excited about it.

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

Yes. Originally, the mill was designed for 35,000 short tons a day. They're trying to flip through 50,000 short tons per day, a very, very hard material. So now with the reinvestment of up to $600 million in total by the time all is said and done, this will easily get to 50,000 tonnes a day. And this is a company now that has no debt and is planning on advancing this project very, very aggressively. So we're very excited about this one.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu of CIBC.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

But maybe if we can start off on Salobo. You've talked a bit about the expansion already. But could you maybe talk about what that means to weaken precious metals and the production profile? Are we going to continue to see the number to Wheaton precious metals continue to increase? Is it going to be a straight line sort of increase into 2024 as they reach full capacity? But then again, Q3 was slightly less than Q2. So how should we model it from your perspective?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

It's tough to expand beyond where we've already described. I mean we see it climbing up to 35 million tonnes per annum average next year, satisfying the Phase 2 of the expansion test. The capacity is 36 million tonnes per annum for what's built there right now currently. And again, I go back to the -- everyone should keep in mind the history of Salobo, but it definitely has had a couple of tough years, but we signed that initial contract back in 2013, and we had 7, 8 years of outperformance in terms of higher than design capacity.So with the team that's in there, the spirited motivated team that we see on the site right now in terms of moving this forward, the management team at Vale base metals is, we've just seen a real change in the approach there, and there's a very, very strong desire to outperform and so it wouldn't surprise me at all to ultimately, 2 years out, see them exceeding over 36 million tonnes per annum.There's long been discussion about a Phase 4 expansion, the possibility of it. They're still exploring that concept. That's, of course, multiyears out. But what we have is Vale-based metals as it's getting more of an individual presence in itself, focusing on its flagship. And of course, it's flagship is our flagship. So we're going to reap the benefits. We and our shareholders are going to reap the benefits of that focus. And so we're really excited about where Salobo stands right now.

[Gary Brown, executive]

Sorry, cosmos. I just want to respond to your point about Q3 being lower than Q2. I think you're talking about sales there. Production is now significantly higher. And the reason sales were down was because there was over 20,000 ounce buildup of PBND during Q3 2023. If that hadn't happened, sales would have been significantly higher as well.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

Of course, yes. I was just trying to ask about, I guess, you did 69,000 ounces, Gary, as you mentioned in Q3, is that going to continue to increase? You did 43% in Q1, 54% in Q2, 69,000 ounces in Q3. Are we going to see that continue to increase at least to your accounts as the expansion continues? So I was trying to link the $35 million times per annum expansion back to what we could expect for WPM.

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Yes. It just goes without saying as the throughput increases and they fine-tune not only are we seeing the enhanced throughput, we're also seeing better recoveries than we've seen in a very long time. And so the combination of those 2 is just aligning up to be, as I said, an exciting time.

[Wes Carson, executive]

It does start to level off at some point here, I mean we're seeing that increase as we go through the quarters here. And we are getting close to kind of that kind of $32 million that we're expecting, and we'll see it continue to increase next year with the throughput. But at some point, the growth that we've seen in the last 3 quarters does start to level off at some point.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

Okay. That's what I want to get to. And then in terms of the payment, as we understand, you need to make a payment for the expansion. If I look at your MD&A, the other obligations and contingency section, you had $370 million year mark for 2023, $163 million year marked for 2024, 2025 for this payment. I don't think you've made that payment yet. And if that's the case, I know it's based on the matrix. It's based on a maximum of $552 million if they reach $35 million by January 1, 2024. I guess what I'm trying to get to is when should we expect that payment to be made?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Yes. I mean, they're not quite there yet, but they should be there within a very short period of time. We expect to be making the first phase payments in the fourth quarter of this year. So that's $370 million. With respect to the second phase, we hope we'll be making it sometime next year. That's definitely the objective of Vale and they're definitely on track. We don't see why that shouldn't happen. And so we would hope that, that $35 million or 35 million tonne per annum payment would be triggered next year.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

And then maybe on Penasquito, you mentioned that Q4 sales is going to decrease due to the strike that ended in October. Could you remind me again in terms of the timing? Like are we going to see -- is the impact of the strike that continue again to Wheaton Precious Metals accounts into Q1 2024? Or should Q1 2024 be fairly normalized by that?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

So production should definitely be up to full levels by the end of this year. Sales, there may still be a residual. As mentioned earlier, we don't see any sales from Penasquito in Q4 if we get some at the end of the year. I mean it's always interesting in Q4 because every one of our partners tends to try and squeeze a bit of extra out of the system and as we say, squeeze the pipeline. And as has been clear in these Q3 results, our pipeline is a little bit full right now. Although it's not out of normal, but we do have a lot of produced but not yet delivered. And so we do expect to see a bit of a bump on the sales side during Q4 but unlikely to see anything out of Penasquito. There may still be a residual slowdown because it is going to be a gradual ramp-up. And then with the time it takes to get to the sales stage, we may see a little bit of a residual effect on sales in Q1 of next year, but we'll definitely have better guidance for you at the end of the fourth quarter from that perspective.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

Great. And then maybe one last question Broader scale, as you mentioned, very good growth, sector-leading growth for the company. You mentioned 810,000 ounces GEOs for the 5 years ending 2027 on average, 850,000 ounces for the 10 years ending 2032 for the 10-year average. But you also mentioned that you're going to give us an update in Q1 2024 updated sort of longer-term numbers. I guess you can't really tell us details at this point in time, but more broadly, you've given that you've made some additions to the portfolio, like should the direction of these longer-term numbers trend up? Or am I mistaken?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

We definitely have added some assets. And so I mean, we determined a long time ago to just maintain our long-term guidance come out at the start of the year and and not adjust that as we add assets over the course of the year. I wouldn't say there's going to be significant growth. What I think we're doing is building a good longer-term structure. Some of the assets we've built that we've added. We're hopeful we'll come in and we're sort of waiting for further clarity in terms of timing as they come forward. And so we're definitely going in the right direction but it'd be tough to sort of give you a firmer guidance for something that we sit down during the first quarter, the first couple of months of the new year and have a really good look at all of our production visits and stuff like that. To keep you in mind or just to remind you, Cosmos, I mean our production forecast, we do it based on our site visits and our read-through in terms of how the operations are going. And so it is something that we take very seriously in terms of putting the time into. So I don't want to preempt that effort in terms of pushing forward. What I can assure you is that we will be up over 900,000 ounces a year of production by 2027. And we've got a path that keeps us well up into that range. And I think on a track towards 1 million gold equivalent ounces of production shortly thereafter it may even be at that time but stay tuned. We will give you further clarity in the first quarter as we always do.

[Cosmos Chiu, analyst]

Of course. That's great to hear. Thanks once again, Randy, Gary, Haytham, Wes and Emma. Congrats on a very strong quarter and have a good weekend.

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Cosmos, apologies again for the technical issues here. And hopefully, we can get Tanya back on again.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

So I just wanted to come back to just the Haythan on M&A, and then I have one for Gary on the global minimum tax in Cayman. So just on the M&A, Haytham, if I could just ask, I've seen some of the peers increasing exposure to existing assets, albeit it has been in royalty form. But I'm just wondering if when you look at your own assets internally and your streams, are there anything that I should think about whether you could see increased exposure within your portfolio like upping some of these streams in the portfolio? Is that an option as well?

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

We're always considering that, Tanya, but I would say the majority of the stuff that we're looking at in terms of growth going forward are new opportunities. We've seen an influx of new opportunities just within the last few months, obviously, with the equity markets tighten the debt markets overpriced. Streaming tends to be one of the lowest cost capital type of funding opportunities. So we're mostly focused on relatively small, when I say small, it's anywhere between, call it, 100 to 300. But there are still some chunky ones out there, and we hope to get some of these things across the line here in the next little while. So focus remains on precious metals, obviously.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Yes. And is that when you say chunky, are those the one from $500 million to $1 billion of those types?

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

Well, you know what, I would say they're 400 plus.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. I appreciate that. And mostly on development of how helping development or funding the development projects, was that the capital?

[Haytham Hodaly, executive]

That's right. The majority are development-stage opportunities, but some of them are quite advanced.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. And then if I could, for Gary, just on the global minimum tax, we did see your competitor in Barbados? Barbados had made some comments on what they're doing in terms of the global minimum tax. Just wondering if you have any update for us in terms of anything from Cayman and anything of your insights into the global minimum tax.

[Gary Brown, executive]

Yes. Cayman has not proposed adopting global minimum tax. So it's still Canada that is the jurisdiction that we're looking to govern how GMT will impact us. So there's really no change on that front. We're still assuming that the draft legislation will be adopted and approved by the Canadian government here for effect January 1 of next year, and we're totally prepared internally for that to happen. But there's a lot of work, I think, that still needs to be done from the government side to get that across the line. So if it does get pushed out, that would just be a benefit, I think.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

Okay. Now, I'm just interested if Cayman had done anything. At the end of the day, Gary, we all know the tax taxes are going up. It's just who takes that, it's 300 cans right?

[Gary Brown, executive]

Yes.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

That's the bottom line. It doesn't really matter from your perspective, it's 15% on any of the assets that were with the contract placed in Cayman. So it doesn't matter. It's just wondering if Cayman has said anything and like they have or so to their way of getting 15%?

[Gary Brown, executive]

They haven't.

[Tanya Jakusconek, analyst]

I appreciate it. Thanks. Thank you, operator.

[Operator]

Our last question comes from the line of John Tumazos of John Tumazos Very Independent Re Research.

[John Tumazos, analyst]

I have 3 follow-up questions on Mineral Park and congratulations. Arizona is a nicer place in Panama or Ecuador, some other places. First, is the capital budget $600 or $600 plus your $115?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Total of $600.

[John Tumazos, analyst]

Could you break down a little bit the $600 million budget, there has been a mine built and operating 13, 14 years ago. Was there stripping that was let go at the end or equipment that was sold off in the bankruptcy? I know there was lots of equipment that was installed that didn't work. The poor guy had like at least 5 mill motors that didn't work on original installation on a bad like I have a car battery getting fixed at 3:00 o'clock, it didn't work when they put it in as well. Then finally, has Waterton copper produced anything before? And maybe does that mean that if Cosmos returned your eye started a project, we could bring it to Wheaton for a stream too?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

So maybe I'll take your last question since I've answered the first question and I'll take the last question first. Last question, have they produced. They've actually got a pretty incredible technical team. Their objective in the past has been to pick up projects that have been somewhat starved for capital, ramp them up and sell them. So they have produced on small-scale projects that they've tried to sell off. Specifically, on Mineral Park, there actually is an actual SACW operation that's actually producing there right now. So they have been producing for a few months, quite a few months at this point.In terms of your second question, in terms of capital cost, John, they have put in, I think, close to about $160 million since they acquired it. And so in total, I think what's remaining is about 200 and, I would say, let's say, $260 million plus a contingency plus management, there's probably somewhere around $330 million in total CapEx left to go. So, all in total by the time since they acquired it, they will have spent close to $600 million on it, of which roughly, I would say half has been spent.

[John Tumazos, analyst]

I'm sorry, I believe the dollars are going out the door, but like is it stripping? Are they ripping out old equipment and putting in new equipment? Or are they merely adding 15,000 tons a day of additional grinding and flotation capacity?

[Randy Smallwood, executive]

Well, a big chunk of it is that just that the crushing and grinding is about $70 million to $75 million. The flotation and the control modernization, et cetera, is about another $75 million. Indirect, excluding EPCM, is about another $60-plus million. So those are the big factors, big chunks there, John.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion of today's conference call.

[Wes Carson, executive]

Yes. Randy had to run to a meeting. So I'd just like to thank everyone for participating. And as you can see, we are taking the company to a level not seen before in the royalty and streaming space and believe it has never been a better time to own more Wheaton. We look forward to speaking with you all again soon, and thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes this conference call for today. Thank you for participating. Participants, please disconnect your lines.