Vista Gold Corp

TSX:VGZ

Earnings Call Analysis

Vista Gold Advances Mt Todd Project Amid Strong Gold Prices

In Q3 2024, Vista Gold made significant strides with its Mt Todd gold project, announcing a feasibility study targeting 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of annual production before year-end, with expected initial capital costs under $400 million. The company ended the quarter with $19 million in cash and no debt, despite a net loss of $1.6 million, slightly higher than the previous year. With gold prices surpassing $2,700 per ounce, margin improvement is anticipated. Their ongoing drilling shows positive results, enhancing the project’s potential in a declining gold discovery landscape, presenting a favorable investment opportunity for shareholders.

Vista Gold's Position in a Rising Gold Market

Vista Gold Corp. is strategically situated in a favorable environment characterized by a significant rise in gold prices, which has increased by 50% over the last two years. This creates an exciting landscape for the company, especially with its Mt Todd project, which is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects located in Australia, a stable and mining-friendly jurisdiction. As demand for gold continues to outstrip supply due to fewer major discoveries, Vista expects to reap the benefits of its well-positioned assets.

Financial Results and Loss Analysis

For Q3 2024, Vista reported a consolidated net loss of $1.6 million, slightly up from $1.5 million in the previous year, aligning with management's expectations. The rise in loss can be primarily attributed to increased costs associated with drilling and technical studies aimed at preparing for a future feasibility study. Despite this, the company's financial health remains stable, ending the quarter with $19 million in cash and no debt, which provides a solid foundation as they look to advance the Mt Todd project.

Drilling Program Insights

The ongoing drilling programs at Mt Todd have yielded positive results, confirming extensions of gold mineralization within the project. The Phase 1 drilling confirmed its boundaries, extending to intercepts yielding up to 50 grams of gold per tonne in some instances—significantly higher than expected. Phase 2 efforts are focused on the South Cross Lode zone, revealing high-grade intercepts that suggest valuable exploration potential at the adjacent zone, further bolstering Mt Todd's appeal.

Feasibility Study and Future Development Plans

Looking ahead, Vista plans to initiate a feasibility study aimed at developing an alternative scale project targeting a throughput of 12,000 to 17,000 tonnes per day, with an expected annual gold production of 150,000 to 200,000 ounces. Initial capital expenditures are projected to be under $400 million. Importantly, this study is anticipated to commence before the end of 2024, further solidifying the company's actionable plans and enhancing its value proposition to current and potential shareholders.

Projected Economic Returns

Preliminary reports indicate that Mt Todd's net present value (NPV) is poised to show robust economics; at a gold price of $1,800 per ounce, the NPV stands at $1.1 billion. This figure escalates dramatically as gold prices increase, reaching an estimated $4 billion at $3,000 per ounce. These figures not only highlight the project's potential but also signal a favorable shift in valuation that could attract significant investments as the market recognizes the project's intrinsic value.

Opportunities for Shareholders

Vista envisions a future where the market's recognition of the Mt Todd project's value can substantially benefit shareholders. The company's strategic initiatives positioned against the backdrop of rising gold prices offer a compelling investment narrative, one that Vista encourages both new and existing shareholders to take seriously. The potential upcoming announcements regarding drill results and feasibility will be crucial in maintaining this investment interest.

Market Factors Supporting Future Growth

Research indicates a declining trend in major gold deposit discoveries, leading to increased interest from producers in acquiring advanced stage development projects like Mt Todd. With only five such major discoveries in recent years, Vista stands to gain attention as a shovel-ready asset, ensuring that its project is primed for quicker development and production, giving it a competitive edge in the market.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Vista Gold's Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Corporate Update Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. Today is Thursday, October 24, 2024.

It's now my pleasure to introduce Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Pamela Solly, executive]

Thank you, Andrew, and good day, everyone. Thank you for joining the Vista Gold Corp. Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Corporate Update Conference Call. I'm Pamela Solly, Vice President of Investor Relations. On the call today, we have Fred Earnest, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Tobler, Chief Financial Officer.

At the close of business yesterday, Vista reported its third quarter 2024 operating and financial results. Copies of the news release and quarterly report on Form 10-Q are available on our website at www.vistagold.com.

During the course of this call and the question-and-answer session, we will be making forward-looking statements. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, performance or achievements of Vista to be materially different from results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such statements. Please refer to our most recently filed Form 10-Q for details of risks and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in our forward-looking statements and the cautionary note regarding estimates of mineral resources and mineral reserves.

I will now turn the call over to Fred Earnest.

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

Thank you, Pam, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Vista's Mt Todd gold project is a large, high-quality gold deposit in one of the most attractive mining jurisdictions in the world. It is an especially attractive shovel-ready development opportunity, and we are advancing Mt Todd in ways that efficiently position the project for development while exercising the discipline necessary to best realize value at the right time.

Vista is committed to seeing its development in keeping with the highest mining and ESG standards. On the call today, we will provide you with an overview of our current activities and other market factors that we believe will be drivers for greater shareholder value.

During the third quarter, we continued to successfully execute our corporate strategy and made significant progress toward achieving our 2024 goals and objectives. We announced positive results from our ongoing drilling program, advanced technical studies in anticipation of a decision to commence a feasibility study targeting 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold production per year prior to the end of this year and continued to prioritize low overall spending, and we ended the quarter with $19 million in cash.

I'm pleased to report that we have had no lost time accidents year-to-date, and that the Mt Todd site now has reached 1,077 consecutive accident-free days.

I will discuss some of these topics in greater detail later in the call, but I'll now turn the time over to Doug Tobler for a review of our financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2024.

[Douglas Tobler, executive]

Thank you, Fred. Today, I'll provide a brief recap of our results of operations for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, and our financial position at this date. Our full financial statements and our MD&A are included in our Form 10-Q that was filed yesterday and is available at either sec.gov or sedarplus.ca.

Vista reported a consolidated net loss of $1.6 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. This compared to a consolidated net loss of $1.5 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2023. The loss increased by a net of $100,000 for the current quarter and was in line with our expectations.

Mt Todd related costs were up by about $250,000, mostly because we expensed several of the 2024 drill holes that did not qualify for capitalization, and we experienced increased spending this quarter as we initiated several studies in anticipation of moving forward with a feasibility study for an alternative scale development option. These increases in Mt Todd spending were partially offset by several other items that resulted in a net reduction of the loss by about $150,000.

For the 9 months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023, we reported net income of $12.9 million and a net loss of $4.9 million, respectively. The net income for the 2024 period resulted from recognizing a gain on grant of royalty interest in mineral titles of $16.9 million and the gain on the sale of mill equipment of $800,000. After you account for the effect of these 2 transactions, other expense and income items were generally consistent when considered on a net basis.

Turning to our financial position. Our balance sheet remained in good condition at September 30 this year. We ended with cash of $19 million, as Fred had said, and we also continue to have no debt.

That concludes my remarks for today. I'll turn the call back over to Fred. Thank you.

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

Thank you, Doug. I'll begin with our third quarter achievements and follow that by our outlook for the remainder of the year.

First of all, let me talk about the drilling program. In January of this year, we started a 6,000- to 7,000-meter drilling program that was followed by other technical studies to evaluate an alternative scale development plan at Mt Todd. The drilling program is nearing completion, and we are pleased with the results to date.

Results from the now complete Phase 1 drilling were announced in August and successfully confirmed the extension of the core zone and the mineralized boundaries in the northern section of the Batman deposit, including intercepts outside of the anticipated mineral boundaries at the northern limit that included gold grades that exceeded our expectations.

Interim Phase 2 drilling results for the South Cross Lode were announced in September and identified multiple high-grade intercepts, including 0.5 meters with 50 grams per tonne in drill hole VB24-14. In hole 24-15, we encountered 1 meter with 12.57 grams of gold per tonne. In hole 16, we drilled 2.3 meters with 7.93 grams of gold per tonne. And in hole 22, we intersected 1 meter with 25.89 grams of gold per tonne. For more detail on the results that were announced, please refer to our September 24 press release.

We now understand the South Cross Lode zone to be a narrower mineralized structure compared to the Batman deposit, and it's adjacent to the Batman deposit, and it extends about 400 meters to the northeast. Our geologists are presently working to understand the open pit and underground mining potential of this zone and develop a model for future exploration in this zone, along with other high-grade targets northeast of the Batman deposit. The drilling program is expected to be completed by year-end.

I'll now address the trade-off studies and other value creation opportunities. As I indicated, we initiated studies, and we continue to advance trade-off studies and preliminary evaluations of an alternative scale development plan for Mt Todd. We are focused on a development plan with daily throughput in the range of 12,000 to 17,000 tonnes per day, which equates to somewhere in the range of 4 million to 6 million tonnes per year. And we expect to have the trade-off studies completed by mid-November.

Previous studies demonstrated opportunities to significantly lower the initial CapEx, maintain high margins and deliver attractive economics at this scale while preserving the flexibility for future expansion. With the gold price now more than or higher than $2,700 per ounce and continuing to rise, margins are increasing. Our analysis suggests that higher margins, combined with lower initial capital, provide an avenue for greater value recognition. We believe that an alternative development strategy offers valuable optionality as we focus on creating shareholder value and attracting investor interest in Mt Todd.

Furthermore, we believe there are other market factors that could have a significant positive impact on our future share price. First, research recently published by S&P Global Market Intelligence indicates that major gold deposit discoveries, and they define major gold deposits as deposits greater than 2 million ounces, have significantly declined over the last 35 years.

The data indicates that in the period from 1990 to 1999, there were 183 major gold deposit discoveries. In the period 2000 to 2009, that dropped to 120 discoveries. From 2010 to 2019, 42 discoveries. And from 2020 through the present, there have been 5 major gold deposit discoveries.

We believe that the scarcity of major gold deposit discoveries will result in producers placing greater focus on optimizing existing projects and acquiring advanced stage development projects. Advanced stage shovel-ready projects like Mt Todd will benefit as producers seek demonstrated feasibility, lower risk and a faster path to production.

Second, over the last 2 years, the gold price has increased by 50%. On average, senior gold producers are up much more than that. But developers are lagging the gold price and are, on average, even or only slightly up over the same period. While Vista has outperformed most of its peers during this period, we believe that the current strong and rising gold price will help drive a revaluation of developers with significant benefit for Vista shareholders.

Last, Mt Todd demonstrates robust project economics. Our 2024 Mt Todd feasibility study update reported a net present value at a 5% discount rate of $1.1 billion at an $1,800 gold price and $0.69 foreign exchange rate.

Using the feasibility study cash flow model and updating the prices at a $2,600 gold price, the NPV5 is estimated to be $3.1 billion at a $0.68 foreign exchange rate. And at $3,000 gold price, the NPV5 is $4 billion. We expect continued strength in the gold market and expect that this will result in greater recognition of the intrinsic value of the Mt Todd project over time.

Now let me turn to the recent S-3 shelf registration statement. Last week, the company filed a $50 million shelf registration statement on Form S-3 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The shelf registration statement will replace the previous $100 million shelf registration statement filed on November 19, 2021, that will expire on December 3 of this year. We are under no obligation to use the shelf registration and have filed this registration in the normal course of business, consistent with our practice of maintaining a current shelf registration. Of note, over the life of the previous shelf registration statement, we opportunistically sold shares with a value of approximately $2 million under our ATM agreement.

As we look ahead, our priorities are to maintain a strong balance sheet, complete the Phase 2 of our drilling program, commence a feasibility study for an alternate scale development option at Mt Todd and continue our work to maximize shareholder value.

Allow me to talk about the feasibility study and the work that we're doing to lower the CapEx for development of option of Mt Todd. We anticipate moving forward with a feasibility study, targeting throughput in the range of 12,000 to 17,000 tonnes per day or 4 million to 6 million tonnes per annum with 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of annual gold production, an initial capital cost of less than USD 400 million, and a reserve grade of approximately 1 gram per tonne. This is our target for this feasibility study.

By using contract mining, third-party power generation and construction practices commonly used in Australia, we believe there is an opportunity to maintain high capital efficiency at this project scale. The feasibility study will leverage prior technical studies and the work completed for the 50,000 tonne per day feasibility study, it will preserve the potential for future expansion and demonstrate the opportunity for Mt Todd to deliver substantial economic returns in a range of development scenarios. The decision to initiate the feasibility study is expected prior to the end of the year.

In conclusion, Vista holds the Mt Todd gold project, a shovel-ready development stage gold project located in the Northern Territory of Australia, one of the most attractive jurisdictions in the world. Mt Todd offers significant scale, development optionality, growth opportunities, advanced local infrastructure, community support, and demonstrated economic feasibility. We are positioning Mt Todd as a leading development opportunity within the gold sector.

We expect continued strength in the gold price and believe that shovel-ready projects, like Mt Todd, are especially attractive development opportunities in the current environment of this strong gold market, diminishing major project or major deposit discoveries and depleting gold reserves. We expect our strategy of advancing Mt Todd with discipline to deliver a more fully valued project to our shareholders.

We believe that thoughtful evaluations and a focus on minimizing shareholder risk will help us create and realize greater value for our stakeholders. Vista is committed to seeing the development of Mt Todd in keeping with the highest mining and ESG standards, and we will work diligently toward that goal. It is important to note that we hold approvals for all major permits needed to initiate development.

The Mt Todd gold project is one of the largest and most advanced undeveloped gold projects in Australia with 7 million ounces of proven and probable reserves. In addition to its size, Mt Todd offers a number of other strategic advantages. Mt Todd is ideally located in the Northern Territory of Australia, an extremely stable and mining-friendly jurisdiction. The existing project infrastructure at Mt Todd provides construction time line and risk mitigation advantages. As I indicated, all of the major permits to initiate development of Mt Todd have been approved.

Of equal importance, we have earned the trust of the local stakeholders and are confident that our social license is firmly in hand. Our current technical programs aim to derisk the project by incorporating designs that significantly reduce the initial capital costs while maintaining competitive operating costs and preserving the option for future project expansion. For a more comprehensive review of the work completed by Vista on the Mt Todd project, I refer you to our corporate presentation, which can be found on our website at www.vistagold.com.

We believe that Vista Gold represents an exceptional investment opportunity and that current prices represent tremendous opportunity to establish our position or increase one's holdings in Vista Gold.

This concludes our formal remarks. Andrew, we will now respond to any questions from the participants on this call.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Henry Weingarten, a private investor.

[Henry Weingarten]

I've been curious, at the scale you're at now, you're clearly looking for a partner or a buyout situation. During 2024, ballpark, how many people, parties have you had serious discussions with beyond kicking the tires, and if any? And for those, how many are still alive and how many have said no? And why did they say no?

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

Henry, that's a very interesting question. Unfortunately, we don't disclose who we've signed confidentiality agreements with or how many confidentiality agreements have been signed typically.

I can indicate that over the course of the year that we have had an increase in interest in the Mt Todd gold project. We recently participated in conferences at Beaver Creek, the Precious Metals Summit, and also in Colorado Springs at the Gold Forum Americas.

We have continue to have substantive conversations with groups who are interested in the Mt Todd project. You will have gathered from the prepared remarks that we are, in the very near future, embarking on a feasibility study to evaluate the Mt Todd project that -- in the range of 4 million to 6 million tonnes per year with targeted production of 150,000 to 200,000 ounces of gold production annually.

This smaller scale with significantly reduced initial CapEx has garnered significant interest among interested parties. We have initiated discussions. I will be in meetings next week in Perth with some parties. We expect to be signing additional or new confidentiality agreements.

But the interest in the smaller case will mature as that study advances. There have been a number of companies who have undertaken significant due diligence. Perhaps the one that I can disclose is Newcrest Mining, and you will certainly be aware that -- and I can kind of paint a picture of timing that in -- kind of in the midst of their due diligence that Newmont knocked on their door and that transaction was completed rather than a transaction with Vista.

So there continues to be interest, and we're encouraged by that. But unfortunately, I'm not able to disclose all of the information that you've requested in your question.

[Henry Weingarten]

Okay. Maybe one other is from the new drill results this year, is the average grams per tonne newly found, is that comparable to the existing ore body greater or less than? And what percentage of increase, I guess, in the ore body does this year's drilling represent?

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

Well, so 2 parts to that. The Phase 1 of the drill program was drilled inside of -- or targeted the boundaries of the Batman deposit, which is [ host ] for our reserves at the northern end of the deposit. And I think it would be fair to say that in broad terms and until we have the resource model update, I won't know for sure.

But I think in broad terms, I would say that we have confirmed and that the changes will probably be, net-net, pretty much the same, that boundaries have expanded in some areas, shrunk in others. Grades are higher in some areas than we previously thought, slightly lower of note at the very north end of the -- what we model as the deposit. We did encounter mineralization outside of the area of our anticipated boundaries and it was higher grade than what we would have expected. And so that's a very positive note.

With regards to Phase 2 of the drilling program, we are drilling what we call the South Cross Lode zone. And this is a zone that we're aware of based on shallow historic drilling, but we knew very little about. And so the drilling that we're doing right now is helping us understand the type of mineralization.

And I can comment that what we see in the South Cross Lode zone is mineralization that's distinct from what we see in the Batman deposit. The Batman deposit is a sheeted vein system. In other words, we have a width of mineralization that varies between 200 and 300 meters, where we have small quartz sulfide veins that host the gold mineralization. They vary in thickness from, perhaps, a millimeter or so up to 10 centimeters, occasionally thicker than that. But they're very consistently spaced across this 200 to 300-meter width with vein densities on the order of, say, 7 to 15 or 20 veins per meter. And so that's what a sheeted vein system looks like in the South Cross Lode.

We're seeing -- we're farther away from the heat source for the deposit. The rock is not as altered. The number of fractures or veins is fewer, but we're seeing in instances that they're wider and the results that I highlighted in the formal remarks, we're seeing vein intercepts that are, in instances, much greater than a meter. And we have encountered vein intercepts that are much higher grade. Our grades in the Batman deposit tend to be in the 1 to 2 gram range and yet, in the South Cross Lode zone, as you heard previously, we've had intercepts as high as 50 grams per tonne and -- over 0.5 meter and almost 26 grams per tonne over a meter.

And anyway, we're still seeking to understand what this means. We will not be completing a resource estimate update until, obviously, the drilling is completed and all assays and check assays are received. But we will be announcing another set of interim drill results in the coming weeks for the South Cross Lode. And that will provide all of us with, perhaps, a little bit of understanding of what we're seeing in the South Cross Lode.

But please bear in mind that this is early days, and right now, we're -- our geologists are working very hard to understand the geology, and this may end up giving us a better model for exploration in other parts of the South Cross Lode and in other targets that we've identified north and east of the Batman deposit that we know are narrower structures based on our drilling in 2020 to 2022.

[Henry Weingarten]

You've led me to a third question, if you'll indulge me. If the South Cross Lode develops into a substantial ore body, does that give you 2 different products to sell? Can you sell Batman and South Cross Lode to separate development organizations?

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

No. No. The products that we will sell from any development within the Mt Todd project umbrella will be gold. And our arrangement with Wheaton Precious Metals, they have a first right of refusal on -- and their royalty covers all of the mining licenses. So they have first right on any [indiscernible] considering contemplate doing with regards to the South Cross Lode.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with closing remarks.

[Frederick H. Earnest, executive]

All right. Thank you, Andrew, and thank you to all of you who have joined the call today.

As indicated, we're -- we find ourselves in an environment where we see a strong and rising gold price. We believe that this will continue. The work that we're doing is meant to capitalize on this market. We believe that market factors, specifically the references that we've made to a decreasing number of major gold discoveries, will provide a tailwind for Vista and other well-advanced developers in the future.

I'm very excited about the opportunity that's presented by the feasibility study that we will be initiating or expect to initiate later this year. I think that this will demonstrate, to a greater degree, the optionality that we see at Mt Todd. Not only is this a very large and well-defined project at 50,000 tonnes per day, but I think that we will be able to demonstrate robust economics at a scale that's nominally a third that size with the option for future expansion.

All of this is aimed at helping our shareholders realize greater value from their Vista investment. We believe that we're positioned to deliver a product that will help drive our share price upward in the future. We appreciate the interest that's been shown in Vista Gold. We find ourselves with share price performance that has been significantly better than many of our peers. We believe that, that's a representation of the value that people see in the Mt Todd project.

We invite those of you who are not shareholders to give serious consideration to making an investment. The recent change in share price, I believe, creates an interesting opportunity to initiate a position. For those who are already shareholders, we invite you to consider increasing your shareholding in Vista Gold.

We look forward to being able to announce additional interim drill results for the Phase 2 of our drilling program in the coming weeks. And later this year, we look forward to being able to announce that the feasibility has been initiated. We encourage you to continue to watch Vista Gold and the results that we are generating, and we thank you for taking time to join us on this quarterly results call. We wish you all a very pleasant day.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.