Tourmaline Oil Corp
TSX:TOU
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TOU stock under the Base Case scenario is 102.665 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 63.935 CAD, Tourmaline Oil Corp is Undervalued by 38%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Tourmaline Oil Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Tourmaline Oil Corp. stands as a prominent player in the Canadian energy sector, specializing in the exploration and production of natural gas and oil. Founded in 2008, the company has rapidly ascended to become one of the largest natural gas producers in Canada, driven by its innovative approach to resource development and strategic acquisitions. Tourmaline operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, where it harnesses vast reserves of natural gas, a crucial resource in today’s energy landscape. The company's commitment to sustainable and responsible production practices not only enhances its operational efficiency but also positions it favorably against peers in a world i...
Tourmaline Oil Corp. stands as a prominent player in the Canadian energy sector, specializing in the exploration and production of natural gas and oil. Founded in 2008, the company has rapidly ascended to become one of the largest natural gas producers in Canada, driven by its innovative approach to resource development and strategic acquisitions. Tourmaline operates primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, where it harnesses vast reserves of natural gas, a crucial resource in today’s energy landscape. The company's commitment to sustainable and responsible production practices not only enhances its operational efficiency but also positions it favorably against peers in a world increasingly focused on environmental stewardship.
As an investor, understanding Tourmaline's robust financial performance is essential. The company has consistently delivered strong cash flows and profitability, thanks to its low-cost production model and diversified asset portfolio. By focusing on high-quality resource plays, Tourmaline has successfully mitigated risks associated with volatile energy prices. Additionally, the company’s emphasis on returning value to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks reflects its confidence in long-term growth prospects. With a strategic focus on maintaining operational excellence and capitalizing on market opportunities, Tourmaline Oil Corp. presents an alluring opportunity for investors seeking to capitalize on the growing demand for energy while benefiting from a well-managed and financially sound organization.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. is one of Canada's largest natural gas producers and operates primarily in the oil and gas sector. The company's core business segments typically include:
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Natural Gas Production: This is the primary focus of Tourmaline, as it is one of the largest natural gas producers in Canada. The company has significant holdings in key gas-producing regions in Western Canada, which allows it to leverage rising natural gas prices and demand.
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Crude Oil Production: In addition to natural gas, Tourmaline produces crude oil. While its oil production may not be as large in volume as its gas production, it contributes significantly to the company's overall revenue, especially when oil prices are favorable.
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Liquids Production: This segment includes the extraction and sale of natural gas liquids (NGLs), such as propane, butane, and ethane, which are valuable byproducts of natural gas extraction and processing. This diversification helps mitigate risks related to commodity price fluctuations.
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Infrastructure and Midstream Operations: Tourmaline has invested in infrastructure that supports its production activities, such as gathering systems, processing plants, and transportation networks. This vertical integration enables the company to enhance its operational efficiency and reduce costs.
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Exploration and Development: The company is continually involved in exploration and development activities to find new reserves and optimize existing ones. This includes drilling and acquisition activities to expand its resource base.
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Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives: With the increasing focus on sustainability in the oil and gas sector, Tourmaline is also involved in initiatives that aim to reduce its environmental footprint. This includes efforts in reducing emissions and optimizing resource use.
Tourmaline's diversified portfolio and significant production capacity allow it to navigate through volatile market conditions, making it a strong player in the North American energy sector.
Tourmaline Oil Corp has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the oil and gas industry. Here are some of the key factors:
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Low-Cost Production: Tourmaline benefits from low operating costs due to its efficient production techniques and advanced technologies. This translates into higher profit margins, especially in volatile market conditions.
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Strategic Asset Base: The company has a well-diversified portfolio of high-quality assets, primarily in the Montney and Horn River basins. This geographical diversification allows Tourmaline to mitigate risks related to regional price fluctuations and operational challenges.
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Strong Financial Position: Tourmaline has maintained a robust balance sheet with low debt levels compared to many peers. This financial strength enables the company to withstand industry downturns and pursue strategic acquisitions when opportunities arise.
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Efficient Capital Allocation: Just like Warren Buffett preaches the importance of capital allocation, Tourmaline excels in effectively allocating its capital toward high-return projects, enhancing long-term shareholder value.
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Robust Growth Strategy: The company has a clear and focused growth strategy, including organic growth through drilling programs and strategic acquisitions that enhance its operational scale and efficiency.
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Advanced Infrastructure: Tourmaline has invested in its own infrastructure, including processing and transportation facilities. This reduces reliance on third-party services and enhances the company's overall operational efficiency.
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Experienced Management Team: The leadership team has a deep understanding of the industry, a proven track record, and strong relationships within the sector, providing the company with strategic insights and better decision-making capabilities.
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Sustainability Focus: Tourmaline is increasingly focusing on sustainable practices and reducing its carbon footprint, which can appeal to environmentally conscious investors and customers.
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Technical Expertise: The company has significant technical expertise in reservoir engineering and completion technologies, allowing it to maximize recovery rates and deliver efficient production growth.
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Market Positioning: As one of the largest natural gas producers in Canada, Tourmaline enjoys considerable market influence, enabling it to negotiate favorable terms and conditions with buyers and suppliers.
These competitive advantages collectively position Tourmaline Oil Corp favorably against its rivals, allowing it to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions while pursuing sustainable profitable growth.
Tourmaline Oil Corp, like many companies in the oil and gas sector, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its performance in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Commodity Price Volatility: The prices of crude oil and natural gas are subject to fluctuations due to market conditions, geopolitical factors, and changes in supply and demand. Significant drops in prices could adversely affect revenue and profitability.
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Regulatory Environment: The oil and gas industry is heavily regulated, and changes in environmental regulations or government policies could impact operations. This includes regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which could result in increased costs or operational constraints.
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Operational Risks: Exploration and production activities come with inherent operational risks, including equipment failures, safety incidents, and challenges in maintaining production levels. These risks can lead to increased costs and potential liabilities.
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Sustainability and Transition to Renewables: There is growing pressure from investors, consumers, and governments to transition towards more sustainable energy sources. This shift could reduce demand for fossil fuels and impact the long-term viability of traditional oil and gas companies.
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Financing and Capital Expenditure: Fluctuating oil prices can affect access to financing, especially if market conditions lead to a decline in creditworthiness. High capital expenditure requirements for exploration and development projects can also pose liquidity risks.
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Market Competition: The oil and gas sector is competitive, with many players vying for market share. Competitors may have lower production costs or better access to technology, which can affect market positioning.
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Geopolitical Risks: Political instability in oil-producing regions, trade disputes, or sanctions can disrupt supply chains, impact pricing, and create uncertainty in global markets.
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Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events: Climate change poses risks such as extreme weather events that can disrupt operations. Additionally, companies face increasing pressure from stakeholders to adapt to climate change and reduce their carbon footprint.
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Technological Advancements: The industry is continuously evolving with new technologies. Failing to adopt innovative solutions may place Tourmaline at a competitive disadvantage.
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Public Perception and Activism: Growing public concern about climate change and environmental issues may lead to increased activism against fossil fuel companies. Negative public perception can impact operations and partnerships.
Addressing these risks requires strategic planning, a robust risk management framework, and an awareness of broader industry trends. Companies that successfully navigate these challenges often focus on diversifying their energy portfolio, enhancing operational efficiencies, and investing in sustainable technologies.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Tourmaline Oil Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Tourmaline Oil Corp
Current Assets | 1.3B |
Receivables | 731.1m |
Other Current Assets | 564.3m |
Non-Current Assets | 18.8B |
Long-Term Investments | 608m |
PP&E | 17.5B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 721.6m |
Current Liabilities | 1.6B |
Accounts Payable | 1.1B |
Other Current Liabilities | 492.4m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 1.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 3.4B |
Earnings Waterfall
Tourmaline Oil Corp
Revenue
|
5.5B
CAD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-37.5m
CAD
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Gross Profit
|
5.5B
CAD
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Operating Expenses
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-3.6B
CAD
|
Operating Income
|
1.9B
CAD
|
Other Expenses
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-401.3m
CAD
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Net Income
|
1.5B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Tourmaline Oil Corp
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
Tourmaline reported solid financial and operational performance in Q2 2024. Average daily production rose 13% year-over-year to 562,000 BOEs. Cash flow was robust at $755 million, generating $434 million in free cash flow. Responding to strong cash flow, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 3% to $0.33 per share and declared a special dividend of $0.50 per share. Net debt was reduced by $137 million. Despite revised full-year production guidance, the company anticipates minimal impact on 2024 cash flow and positive effects on 2025 cash flow due to expected stronger natural gas prices.
What is Earnings Call?
TOU Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Tourmaline Oil Corp's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Tourmaline Oil Corp's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TOU Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Tourmaline Oil Corp's solvency score is 62/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Tourmaline Oil Corp's solvency score is 62/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TOU Price Targets Summary
Tourmaline Oil Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TOU is 78.668 CAD with a low forecast of 67.67 CAD and a high forecast of 97.65 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TOU is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Tourmaline Oil Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 242 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2010-11-22. The company is focused on long-term growth through an exploration, development, production and acquisition program in the western Canadian sedimentary basin. The company operates in three basins, which include the Alberta Deep Basin, NEBC Montney Gas/Condensate and Peace River Triassic Oil. The firm has ownership interests in thirteen natural gas plants in the Alberta Deep Basin. The company owns and operates five natural gas processing facilities with aggregate capacity of approximately 325 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) with related gas gathering systems and NGL handling infrastructure at NEBC Montney Gas basin. The company owns and operates two oil batteries at Peace River Triassic Oil basin, which is handling approximately 48,000 barrels per day of fluids and the associated natural gas is delivered to a third party for processing.
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The intrinsic value of one TOU stock under the Base Case scenario is 102.665 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 63.935 CAD, Tourmaline Oil Corp is Undervalued by 38%.