Suncor Energy Inc
TSX:SU
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one SU stock under the Base Case scenario is 65.16 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 53.01 CAD, Suncor Energy Inc is Undervalued by 19%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Suncor Energy Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Suncor Energy Inc. is a leading integrated energy company based in Calgary, Canada, with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1919. Initially focused on oil sands development, Suncor has evolved into a diversified energy producer, engaging in crude oil extraction, refining, and marketing operations. The company's core assets lie in Alberta's oil sands, where it has established a significant footprint, allowing it to tap into one of the world's largest reserves of crude oil. By balancing its upstream activities—focusing on exploration and production—with a robust downstream segment that includes refineries and retail gasoline stations, Suncor has built a resilient business model desi...
Suncor Energy Inc. is a leading integrated energy company based in Calgary, Canada, with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1919. Initially focused on oil sands development, Suncor has evolved into a diversified energy producer, engaging in crude oil extraction, refining, and marketing operations. The company's core assets lie in Alberta's oil sands, where it has established a significant footprint, allowing it to tap into one of the world's largest reserves of crude oil. By balancing its upstream activities—focusing on exploration and production—with a robust downstream segment that includes refineries and retail gasoline stations, Suncor has built a resilient business model designed to withstand price volatility in the energy market. Furthermore, the company has made strides toward sustainability, investing in renewable energy and carbon capture technologies, demonstrating its commitment to a more sustainable future while still delivering value to shareholders.
For investors, Suncor represents a compelling opportunity in the energy sector, especially as global demand for energy continues to evolve. The company's strong financial position, supported by prudent capital management and a history of generating free cash flow, positions it well for both short- and long-term growth. With significant investments in growth projects and a disciplined approach to capital allocation, Suncor aims to increase its production capacity while enhancing its operational efficiencies. Notably, Suncor's strategic initiatives in decarbonization and innovation align with the global shift towards cleaner energy, setting the stage for future growth. As the world transitions to a more sustainable energy landscape, Suncor's commitment to balancing traditional energy production with emerging technologies makes it a noteworthy consideration for investors looking to capitalize on the dynamic energy market.
Suncor Energy Inc. operates primarily in the oil and gas sector and is known for its integrated operations across the oil value chain. Its core business segments include:
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Oil Sands: This segment is the largest contributor to Suncor's production and revenue. It involves the extraction and upgrading of bitumen from Canada's oil sands deposits. Suncor operates large-scale mining operations and in-situ projects to harvest this resource. The company also has facilities to upgrade bitumen into synthetic crude oil.
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Exploration and Production (E&P): Through this segment, Suncor explores and produces crude oil and natural gas both in Canada and internationally. This includes operations in conventional oil fields and offshore projects, particularly in the North Sea.
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Refining and Marketing: Suncor owns and operates refineries that process crude oil into various petroleum products. This segment is also responsible for marketing these products, which include gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt. The refining segment helps Suncor manage its supply chain and provides a buffer against price volatility.
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Renewables: In response to the energy transition and growing focus on sustainability, Suncor is investing in renewable energy sources, including biofuels and solar power. This segment reflects the company's commitment to diversifying its energy portfolio and reducing its carbon footprint.
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Retail and Wholesale: Suncor operates a retail business under the Petro-Canada brand, which includes gas stations and convenience stores across Canada, providing consumers with fuel and other related services.
These segments collectively contribute to Suncor's business model, allowing for integrated operations that enhance operational efficiencies, manage risk, and leverage different market dynamics. The company’s focus on sustainability and renewable energy also indicates its strategic direction toward a more diversified energy future.
Suncor Energy Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the energy sector:
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Integrated Business Model: Suncor operates across the entire oil and gas value chain, including oil sands extraction, refining, and retail. This vertical integration allows for better control over costs, increased efficiency, and the ability to capture value at multiple stages of production.
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Expertise in Oil Sands: Suncor is one of the pioneers in oil sands development in Canada. Its extensive experience and knowledge in this area provide technical advantages and operational efficiencies that newer entrants may lack.
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Strong Asset Base: The company holds significant reserves and resources in the Athabasca oil sands, which are among the largest oil sands deposits globally. This access to reserves positions Suncor favorably within the industry.
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Operational Efficiency: Suncor has invested in advanced technologies and processes to improve its production efficiency while reducing environmental impacts. This commitment to innovation helps decrease operational costs and enhance profitability.
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Sustainability Initiatives: Suncor has embraced sustainability and is increasingly focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and diversifying its energy offerings. This strategic focus on sustainability may resonate well with stakeholders and investors seeking ethical investments.
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Strong Financial Position: Suncor has a robust balance sheet and strong cash flow generation capabilities. This financial strength enables the company to invest in new projects and navigate market fluctuations more effectively than some of its competitors.
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Diverse Product Portfolio: Beyond its core oil sands production, Suncor has a diverse product portfolio that includes refining, petrochemicals, and renewable energy initiatives. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with dependence on a single market or product.
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Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: Suncor has established various partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach, allowing for shared expertise and risk sharing in key projects.
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Brand Recognition: With well-known retail brands such as Petro-Canada, Suncor benefits from strong brand loyalty and recognition, which aids in its market presence and customer engagement.
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Access to Infrastructure: Suncor has a well-developed infrastructure for transportation, refining, and distribution, including pipelines and refineries. This access reduces logistical costs and improves market access for its products.
These competitive advantages position Suncor Energy Inc. favorably in the energy marketplace as it strives to navigate the evolving energy landscape and capitalize on new opportunities.
Suncor Energy Inc., like many companies in the energy sector, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some of the key factors to consider:
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Regulatory Changes: The energy sector is heavily regulated, and Suncor may face challenges due to changes in environmental regulations, carbon pricing, and climate policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
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Market Volatility: Fluctuations in crude oil prices can significantly impact Suncor's revenues and profitability. This volatility can stem from geopolitical tensions, changes in OPEC policies, and broader economic conditions.
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Transition to Renewable Energy: As the global focus shifts towards renewable energy sources, Suncor may face pressure to diversify its energy portfolio, which could involve substantial investments and strategic reorientations.
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Operational Challenges: Suncor has operations in various regions, and operational risks such as equipment failures, labor disputes, and resource availability could disrupt production and impact financial performance.
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Environmental Concerns: The oil sands production processes that Suncor is involved in attract scrutiny for their environmental impact, which can lead to public relations challenges and affect investor sentiment.
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Financial Health and Debt Levels: Managing debt levels and maintaining financial health in a volatile market is crucial. High levels of debt could limit Suncor’s ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather downturns.
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Indigenous Relations and land rights: The company operates in areas that are also ancestral lands for Indigenous peoples. Navigating these relationships and addressing land rights issues will be important for Suncor’s social license to operate.
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Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation, interest rates, and global economic growth, can impact energy demand and, consequently, Suncor’s performance.
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Technological Disruption: Advances in renewable technologies and battery storage could displace traditional oil and gas production methods. Suncor must be proactive in adopting new technologies to remain competitive.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues can impact Suncor's ability to source necessary materials and equipment, potentially affecting production schedules and costs.
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Workforce Management: The energy sector often faces challenges in attracting and retaining skilled labor, further complicated by challenges such as remote work and shifts in workforce preferences.
To navigate these risks and challenges, Suncor will need to develop robust risk management strategies, invest in innovation, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Suncor Energy Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Suncor Energy Inc
Current Assets | 15.3B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 2.4B |
Receivables | 7.4B |
Other Current Assets | 5.5B |
Non-Current Assets | 75.1B |
PP&E | 69.5B |
Intangibles | 3.5B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 2.1B |
Current Liabilities | 10.5B |
Accounts Payable | 9.1B |
Short-Term Debt | 38m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.4B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 35.4B |
Long-Term Debt | 15.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 20.3B |
Earnings Waterfall
Suncor Energy Inc
Revenue
|
50.7B
CAD
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Cost of Revenue
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-19.3B
CAD
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Gross Profit
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31.4B
CAD
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Operating Expenses
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-21.1B
CAD
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Operating Income
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10.4B
CAD
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Other Expenses
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-2.8B
CAD
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Net Income
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7.5B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Suncor Energy Inc
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
In the second quarter of 2024, Suncor Energy achieved remarkable operational and financial results. The company's upstream production reached 771,000 barrels per day, setting new records for oil sands production. Refining utilization hit 92%, driving refined product sales to a record 595,000 barrels per day. Disciplined cost management reduced quarterly operating expenses by over $250 million compared to the previous quarter. Suncor generated $3.4 billion in adjusted funds from operations and returned $1.5 billion to shareholders. The company aims to reduce net debt to $8 billion by mid-next year, reflecting robust financial health and strategic execution.
What is Earnings Call?
SU Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Suncor Energy Inc's profitability score is 62/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Suncor Energy Inc's profitability score is 62/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SU Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Suncor Energy Inc's solvency score is 53/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Suncor Energy Inc's solvency score is 53/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SU Price Targets Summary
Suncor Energy Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SU is 61.18 CAD with a low forecast of 52.11 CAD and a high forecast of 76.65 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for SU is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Suncor Energy, Inc. is an integrated energy company, which develops petroleum resource basins. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 16,922 full-time employees. The firm's segments include Oil Sands, Exploration and Production (E&P), and Refining and Marketing. The Oil Sands segment includes the Company's owned operations in the Athabasca oil sands in Alberta to explore, develop and produce bitumen, synthetic crude oil and related products, through the recovery and upgrading of bitumen from mining and in situ operations. The E&P segment includes offshore activity in East Coast Canada, with interests in the Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose and Hebron oilfields, the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas at Buzzard and Golden Eagle Area Development in the United Kingdom, and exploration and production of crude oil and gas at Oda. The Refining and Marketing segment includes the refining of crude oil products, and the distribution, marketing, transportation and risk management of refined and petrochemical products, and other purchased products.
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The intrinsic value of one SU stock under the Base Case scenario is 65.16 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 53.01 CAD, Suncor Energy Inc is Undervalued by 19%.