Nexus Industrial REIT
TSX:NXR.UN

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Nexus Industrial REIT
TSX:NXR.UN
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Price: 7.93 CAD -0.25% Market Closed
Market Cap: 561m CAD
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q3

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Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Nexus Industrial REIT Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. The conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Kelly Hanczyk, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Thank you very much. Joining me today is Mike Rawle, Chief Financial Officer of the REIT. Before we begin, I'd like to caution with regard to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. Certain statements made during this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements, which reflect the REIT's current expectations and projections about future results. Also during this call, we'll be discussing non-GAAP measures. Please refer to our MD&A and the REIT's other securities filings, which can be found on our website and at sedar.com for cautions regarding forward-looking information and for information about non-GAAP measures. 









Through 2023 and the first half of 2024, we invested to improve our business. Our goal was to high-grade and optimize our portfolio, taking advantage of uncertain economic backdrop and a weaker real estate market to acquire and develop high-quality assets at attractive prices. We made 10 targeted acquisitions, and we advanced 4 development projects, 3 of which are already cash flowing. In the third quarter, we entered the next phase of our plan. We are deleveraging our balance sheet and focusing our business further on the industrial sectors through the sale of our legacy office and retail portfolios and some noncore industrial buildings. And this quarter, we made great headway. In September and October, we announced the sale of our portfolio of 8 old Montreal office properties as well as an opportunistic sale of excess land in Fort St. John, BC.

 

Now I'm excited to share that all of our legacy retail portfolio, except for one building is now under a firm sale contract, which is scheduled to close by the end of the year. In addition, we have a firm sale contract for 4 noncore industrial buildings in Regina, Saskatchewan, which will close in December. We also made progress on our remaining office buildings. We now have 2 more under firm sales contracts that are scheduled to close before the end of the year and an additional one under a PSA and in due diligence. This leaves us with one remaining retail building and 2 office buildings.

 

The retail building, Lal has surplus land, which we are selling separately from the building. Once the land is sold, we will then move to sell the building in the new year. Of the remaining office buildings, as mentioned, one office is under a sale contract, which is not yet firmed and the final 2 are joint ventures, and we are not currently marketing them. All told, we are targeting noncore asset sales of approximately $110 million in the second half of 2024, and I'm confident that we'll achieve the goal. We'll use the proceeds from the sales to reduce our debt balance. After completing these sales, our mission to be Canada's pure-play industrial REIT will be complete, and our industrial NOI concentration will be nearly 100%. 





Turning to operating performance. We had a strong third quarter. Our normalized FFO improved 5.6% to $0.188 per unit, and our normalized AFFO improved 6.8% to $0.158 per unit. In both cases, the increase was driven by stronger net operating income, which was up 3% or $1 million compared to last quarter and was up 11% or $3.2 million compared to a year ago. This NOI increase was largely driven by 3 factors: acquisitions, organic growth and development. I'll discuss each of these more in detail. New properties that we acquired in the past year contributed $2.7 million in NOI for the quarter. Within the quarter, we acquired a brand-new single-tenant industrial property in Sherbrooke, Quebec that was a build-to-suit for an existing tenant. The purchase price was $16.6 million at a fixed cap. 









As part of the consideration, we issued the vendor $4.6 million of Class B LP REIT units at $10 per unit, a 45% premium to our trading price on that day. The 62,000 square foot building is fully tenanted, brand new and contributed $200,000 of NOI in the quarter. Our industrial same-property net operating income was $26.3 million in the quarter, a $1.4 million increase from a year ago. The increase was driven primarily by the lease-up of our Richmond BC property. This quarter, our results benefited from the resolution of 2 key vacancies that impacted the first and second quarter. On August 1, a new tenant took the full 29,000 square feet at our 102 Avenue Southeast Calgary building. And at our Exeter Road facility in London, Ontario, a new tenant moved in mid-August, taking all 68,000 square feet of vacant space. 

 

Our Titan Park development in Saskatchewan was the first of our recent development projects to be completed. We finished it on schedule and slightly below budget, and the primary tenant took occupancy of 204,000 square feet April 1. The property contributed a healthy $500,000 of NOI this quarter. We have also inked a tenant for the remaining 109,000 square feet, which takes occupancy in February 2025. Once fully leased, this property will add annual stabilized NOI of approximately $3.8 million, representing a 7.9% cap rate on our investment of $48 million. We still have 6 acres of land at that site that we are possibly looking to finish and lease this truck parking in the future. 

 

This quarter, we also benefited from our Hungry Road industrial intensification project in London, Ontario. We completed this 96,000 square foot building in July, and the tenant took occupancy mid-month. The project will yield 8.4% in the first year on development costs of $14 million, and the project has significant rent escalations thereafter. It also builds on our leadership position in the highly desirable London market, which continues to be one of the tightest industrial markets in Canada. We also completed our 115,000 square foot Glover Road new build in Hamilton by the airport. We own 80% of the property and will earn 5.9% going-in yield on our $25 million share of the development costs. We're currently looking for a tenant and I'm optimistic that will be leased in the first half of 2025. Construction is ongoing at our Dennis Road property in St. Thomas, Ontario.







This project is a 325,000 square foot expansion for an existing tenant at an estimated cost of $49 million. The tenant pays a 7% interest on the development costs that we incur during the construction phase, so there's no drag on our cash flow. When it is completed in the first quarter of 2025, the tenant will pay us rent equal to 9% yield on all the development costs. We have also just started construction of 115,000 square foot small bay industrial building on vacant land that we hold at 102 Avenue in Southeast Calgary. The total project cost is about $15 million and we expect it to be completed mid-2025 and to deliver a 12% unlevered return. Leasing signs are up and the response has been excellent for this highly desirable small bay design. On a full year basis, I expect that the actions we have taken and the positive benefit of embedded rent escalation will drive mid-single-digit same-property NOI growth in our industrial property portfolio. 





Looking beyond 2024, I continue to expect to earn a healthy rent lift on renewals due to the industrial market rents that are, on average, 26% above in-place rents and from rent escalation embedded into our lease contracts. In summary, I expect our results will continue to improve from here. We have firm sales contracts for our legacy office, retail and noncore industrial portfolios, which will further focus our portfolio and delever our balance sheet. We have also resolved key vacancies. Our accretive developments are coming online, we will continue to realize significant organic growth through embedded rent steps and positive mark-to-market on renewal. We have built a strong team. And by the end of the year, our mission to be the Canadian-focused pure-play industrial REIT will be complete, and we will set ourselves up nicely for future growth. I'll now turn the call over to Mike to give some more color on our financials.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Thank you, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Starting with headline earnings in the quarter. Net loss was $46.0 million, a $122.9 million decrease compared to a net income of $77.0 million last year. The decrease was due to noncash fair value adjustments on Class B LP units on investment properties and on derivative financial instruments that combined were $121.1 million lower than last year. This was partially offset by higher net operating income in the quarter. Our third quarter net operating income was $32.6 million, an increase of 11% or $3.2 million compared to last year. Of this amount, new acquisitions accounted for $2.7 million and growth in same-property NOI added $1.2 million. Normalized AFFO for the period was $0.158 per unit, a decrease of $0.01 per unit from a year ago as the benefit from higher net operating income was offset by a combination of higher interest expense and more units outstanding. 





Total general and administrative expenses for the quarter were $1.9 million, which was $0.5 million higher than a year ago, predominantly due to higher employee costs and legal fees. Net interest expense in the quarter was $14.0 million, a $3 million increase from the same period last year. The increase was primarily due to a higher average outstanding debt balance resulting from borrowings to fund acquisitions and construction at our Titan Park, Qubree, Glover and Dennis Road projects. At September 30, 2024, our NAV per unit was $13.06, a $0.14 per unit decrease from last quarter. Our weighted average cap rate increased by 1 basis point to 5.81% in the quarter compared to 5.80% at June 30, 2024. The carrying value of our investment properties increased by $41.1 million in the quarter, primarily due to the acquisition of an industrial property in Sherbrooke, Quebec for $16.6 million, development spend of $15.4 million and $11.1 million of positive fair value adjustments. I'll now turn the call back to Kelly.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

All right. Thanks, Mike. I'm excited about the progress that we've made to date, and I look forward to continuing our momentum through the fourth quarter and into 2025. So with that, operator, please open the lines to any questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Brad Sturges of Raymond James.

B
Bradley Sturges
analyst

Just maybe starting on the development pipeline, just looking at the table you provided, it looks like five or six projects in the planning stage right now. At this point, as we sit here today, what could we expect in terms of new starts heading into 2025?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Right now, all we have planned in the immediate planning is the Calgary, which is going. After that, I think over the next several months, we'll start to identify some others that we may have in London and see what the demand is like. But I know we have a couple in London that are easily expanded upon depending on the tenant demand. So they may pop up next year. But right now, what's in the immediate pipeline is the Calgary asset.

B
Bradley Sturges
analyst

And at this point, is it -- are you waiting for, I guess, is it more like a build-to-suit sort of process? Or would you start anything on spec?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. If we were to start anything on Spec summer right now, I think it would be in the small bay. Small Bay, depending on where you are, has pretty solid demand right now just from the user base. Possibly maybe in Kelowna, maybe actually probably just there. And if we were to do in London, it would be for an expansion probably at one of our existing tenants.

B
Bradley Sturges
analyst

Okay. Last question, just on capital allocation. Clearly, it sounds like the initial plan with the sales proceeds is to repay debt. But how do you think about resuming a little bit more of an active program on the acquisition front next year?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. I mean, ultimately, we do want to pay down debt. So that's our immediate plan. We do have our eyes on some pretty good acquisition opportunities. If we can do them and keep our debt in check, then we would pursue them. Otherwise, we'll see how the market pans out over the next quarter or two, I'd say, before we make any kind of significant moves.

B
Bradley Sturges
analyst

I guess any acquisitions in the pipeline today would be more like share deals in terms of the opportunity set today?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. I mean it's tough to issue a unit deal right now where we're trading at a significant discount and trying to get closer to where we would like to do a deal. So it's really going to depend on unit price going forward.

Operator

The next question comes from Jimmy Shan of RBC Capital Markets.

K
Khing Shan
analyst

Just a couple of questions as we look out to '25. First, do you have an estimate of what the contractual rent escalation would look like sort of portfolio-wide for '25? And then on the expiries, I recall last quarter, you had talked about a large tenant in London that you're working on and sort of you have any update on that front?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

I'll start off with the London one. It's still a bit early. That's kind of more, I believe, a midyear one, and they tend to leave it closer towards that renewal time. So pretty sure they'll stay. They've been at that site for quite a while. I'll pass it to Mike for the other one.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes. So we've laid out in our MD&A, Page 13, you can see basically the average where we're at by average in-place rent of expiries by province. And I would use that as your guideline for coming up with a rough total renewal rate going forward. It's a bit early for us at this point, Jimmy, to start to give a forecast for next year.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. And actually, Jimmy, to answer your question, I think one of the other ones in London is an end of year expiry and a fairly significant one, and we actually are speaking with the tenant right now. So we'll see how that goes. But that's where we have a significant amount of lift on renewal.

K
Khing Shan
analyst

Okay. And your rent expectation, whether it's on those leases or whether it's on the Glover lease-up, they're about the same as it would have been.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. I mean, Glover right now, I would say from where I think the development started to where it is today, maybe some expected rent could have been $16 and now you're probably talking 15, somewhere around there. So it has dropped off there. London, not so much of a drop off. So there's still for a larger space, there isn't a lot available. So at the end of the day, you're still talking in that $12 node.

K
Khing Shan
analyst

Okay. Actually, just, sorry, one last, just the modeling. In the three assets, development assets you had talked about Huber, Glover, Titan, those were all transferred into income-producing properties, correct?

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes, they were. So Titan was in Q2 and Huber and Glover were both in Q3.

Operator

Next question comes from Kyle Stanley of Desjardins.

K
Kyle Stanley
analyst

You had talked about seeing new acquisition opportunities. I'd just be curious to know what type of assets are you seeing out there? What geographies? I just would love to understand how you're thinking about that external growth program evolving in '25 after potentially dealing with the leverage.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. I mean we're seeing some decent ones in London still, one, because we are the biggest landlord there. So I think we're pretty well connected. We've seen some in Edmonton and Calgary, Montreal, Toronto. I would say those are where we're really focused overall. It's going to depend on our cost of capital, what we do, anything we probably do will be have to be nicely accretive from here. We've already high-graded the portfolio significantly. So we'd be looking to add to it. GTA is always a target for us. I think you can find some better deals here, but maybe that's mixed with something out west at the same time on a blended cap rate basis. 





So right now, it's been a huge focus on just getting rid of the retail and the office portfolio, which has been challenging, but it's pretty -- we're happy with the results of it. It took us a while, but we're actually pretty happy with the overall results. So we're focused on closing those and then we'll start taking a good hard look at what we do going forward once we pay down our debt and see where we are.

K
Kyle Stanley
analyst

Okay. That makes sense. Just because you highlighted there the disposition program. Can you remind us how much debt might be on those assets that are being sold? Just trying to think about the net proceeds that could be allocated then to repaying your debt?

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Roughly 65% of total, 65%, 70%.70% LTV.

K
Kyle Stanley
analyst

Okay. Perfect. And then one other one, just you talked about Glover Road and now maybe you've pushed your leasing assumptions out to the middle of next year. Just curious, what kind of tenants are you targeting for the asset? What might be causing a delay? Is it just general market softness? Just curious on your thoughts.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes, there's some competition out there. I hate to jump the gun. We're fairly close. I'm hearing on one. I think they've narrowed down to our property. So whether we get it over the line or not, but I think the overall tenant pool in that market has just taken a pause for a little bit. That whole golf, Cambridge, that whole little node going across through in Hamilton, there's been product that's been delivered. So it's just slower overall for the past, I'd say, 6, 8 months. And the good news I'm hearing some positive about it's starting to pick up a little bit. So we'll see how it goes. But I'm fairly confident that who we're speaking with now, we should be able to get over the line. So hopefully, we can and then have that leased and off our plate in a long-term deal.

K
Kyle Stanley
analyst

Okay. That makes sense. Just a last one. Last quarter, I think committed industrial occupancy was about 98%. This quarter, I know it's about 97%. Can you talk about any changes that might have occurred there?

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes, 2 changes. One is Glubver Road is now being included in that number in the denominator. So now that that's moved out of property under development and into IPP. So as we spoke through, we expect that will be leased up in 2025. And then the other one is we do have at 855 Park Road in Saskatchewan, the tenant left there at the end of September. So that one is vacant at this point.

Operator

The next question comes from Sumayya Syed of CIBC.

S
Sumayya Hussain
analyst

Just on the leasing side, looking at the mark-to-market spread, it went up a little bit from last quarter and it looks like Alberta spreads improved sequentially. But on the flip side, market rent in Quebec was down from last quarter. Can you just provide some color on these markets and generally where you're seeing market rents trending these days?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. So I think Calgary out West has took a little uptick. So it's been a fairly strong market out there. Like I said, we've broken ground on our small bay. And from my speaking with the brokers, the signs literally just went up and their phones started to ring. So the small bay has been fairly strong out there, and it always tends to be in demand. So that's why we went that route. So that was an uptick. Montreal has, I think, definitely come down a little bit. The demand has weakened a little. we're still doing some pretty solid deals out there, again, in our smaller bay because that's what we have near the airport where some of the renewals were pretty good. 

 

But I think overall, the market has dropped a little. And I think even if you look at GTA, same thing, just a little bit of weakness in the market where it's been a little overbuilt in that Cambridge Gulf area, which I think is driving down overall market rents a little bit. So until that gets leased up, I think you're going to see it flat. And I am hearing guys giving a little bit more concessions and dropping the face rates a bit. So that's kind of what's overall driving. London, though, is still pretty strong, not overbuilt, nothing really coming online. So it's holding pretty stable there.

S
Sumayya Hussain
analyst

Okay. And then in your own assets, have you had to offer concessions, for example, in Montreal or in the GTA markets you referenced?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

No. I mean I'm looking at our new leasing. Some of the deals were done quite a while ago. So it hasn't really affected us on that level yet. I would say on a new lease in Glover, what we planned versus where we would be would be slightly off our model where we thought maybe we could push into the 6% returns. It's probably more like 5.9% just from what we'd have to put into the deal and where the face rent is. So a little bit more. That's the real big one. The one we did in Regina, honestly, it was a great deal, put us ahead of our returns. So it's a little bit of a mixed bag all over the country.

S
Sumayya Hussain
analyst

Okay. And then just on occupancy, any known move-outs? I know Mike just mentioned one at the end of September. Are you expecting an uptick in vacancy in the near term and short term maybe as you focus on prioritizing rent as some of your peers are seeing a bit of that play out in terms of transitory vacancies?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. Now, I think we will be pretty stable around these levels, call it, the 97%, 98%.

Operator

The next question comes from Ray Kellff of BMO Capital Markets.

U
Unknown Analyst

Maybe on capitalized interest, it went up a bit higher this quarter. Can you give some color on that?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

So yes, I mean, it's been relatively flat through the year. And I think this quarter, we had greater spend at our St. Thomas facility. So we're building up this new facility in St. Thomas, Ontario, which is $48 million total spend, and we have an increase about $9 million of spend this quarter there, and that's led to higher cap interest there.

U
Unknown Analyst

Got it. And so you delivered Hub Road and Clover Road this quarter, and they were moved to IPP from PUD and current balance on your balance sheet is close to $75 million. But if I look at your development table, the current cost basis or cost incurred is roughly $55 million. So what's causing this difference of $20 million?

M
Michael Rawle
executive

The other piece is our 1584 subservice Road. So Yes, Service Road. We have about $20 million spent there. Service Road in Hamilton, Ontario.

U
Unknown Analyst

Got it. So in H2 2024, you guided to $110 million of dispositions. So maybe for 2025, so what's your strategy going ahead for 2025? I know it's too early for you to give a guidance for 2025. But any color on sort of SBI growth that you're expecting for 2025? Do you expect any acceleration in the rate? Any color would be appreciated.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes, really too early for us to give guidance on that front. I mean we're going through our budgeting process now. And when we've got that nailed down, we'll be able to give you guys a solid outlook like we did this year, which hopefully will paint the paths for you.

U
Unknown Analyst

Okay. And the lease done this year, what's the sort of the retention rate?

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes, I don't have that at hand, I'm afraid.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

We can go offline and get it to you. It is pretty high. We haven't lost too many.

Operator

The next question comes from Himanshu Gupta of Scotiabank.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

So just on the development side, it looks like you're starting work on Calgary small Bay property. Kelly, did you say 12% unlevered return? That implies almost like $15 per foot rent. So that looks pretty strong.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes, it is pretty strong. So the small bay in the node we're in, in Calgary there. So that's adjacent to the one that we just leased that used to be formerly Canada Cartage. We moved Canada Cartage to Balzac in a new build there, and we've re-leased the building, and we have 6 acres vacant. So call it, that's without an implied land value because we own the land already. And we've just used to be leased all in one. So in those rents, the small bay, I think Calgary right now is pushing like around $12 net and the small bay commands a higher rental rate, especially in around that 10,000, 11,000 square foot spaces.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

Yes. And like looking at small bay, is it because of higher rents there? Because many of your otherwise properties are single-tenant properties.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes. This one is a little different. The footprint is a little shallower. So it lends better to a small bay from a shipping perspective than a big box. So when we were speaking with the brokers on how to maximize value on the land, we decided to go to a small bay. And it really also affects the downtime. I think we'll have the majority of it lease by the time we're opening up and finishing it off because right now in that node, there was a new one down the road built it leased up really, really fast at pretty competitive rates. So we're just following suit in what's in the demand for that area.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

Got it. And then Regina, I think the second leg also got done. Was it like very similar pricing, $10 per foot range or any different?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

It's higher. It's leased at higher than that.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

Yes. The new Regina is that we've been able to lease it up exceeding the business case. So it's coming in at 7.9%, nearly 8% yield.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

We actually finished it off a little bit cheaper than what we planned and our lease rates are a little bit higher. So it's pretty good. And we do still have 6 acres of land that we could pay for truck parking or gravel. And so that could just be additional gravy next year. In talking with our existing tenants, they're pretty full. They're pretty active. They're pretty tight on their shipping. So it could be something that we just lock into next year.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

That's excellent. Okay. And then just shifting on the expiries next year. I think Alberta, some expiries are coming up. Do you expect any space coming back in Alberta next year?

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

No, I don't think so. I think Alberta has been pretty strong with us. We've done a lot of the renewals already. There could be 1 or 2 smaller ones, I think. But I think right now, it's looking pretty good.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

We've leased up roughly 50% of next year's expiries already at a pretty healthy lift. So that's looking good.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

Okay. And Mike, just to confirm, 50% already done, this is out of, I mean, 205,000 what is shown in your lease expiry chart.

M
Michael Rawle
executive

No, no, that's the remaining. So I mean, we had what we have coming in and what's remaining is the one of the numbers that are in the table in the MD&A.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

And the last question is on the Ontario lease expiries. I mean, again, next year. I mean, in-place rent is less than $7. I mean, is that correct? I mean it looks pretty low. So it looks like is it any one particular asset or property why this is lower and we can definitely expect some lift on that.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Yes, it's in London. It's got a very, very low in-place rent, just over $4 on one of them. It's really 2 big ones, one in Chatham and one in London. And I think combined, it's like 504,000 square feet. So the one in London is where we expect to see significant amount of lift. The other one we'll see some smaller lift. It's a little bit more price-sensitive tenant, and it's Chatham not London, which isn't as, I guess, active as London is. So on both of them, we're pretty positive on renewal and at a pretty good premium. Those are the 2 big ones.

H
Himanshu Gupta
analyst

Well, with occupancy consistent, I think you mentioned and with lifts, I think we can expect some stronger same property NOI growth next year.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kelly Hanczyk for any closing remarks.

K
Kelly Hanczyk
executive

Just thanks, everyone, for joining. We look forward to a really solid fourth quarter, and we'll see you next year on the next conference call.

Operator

That does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.