Mullen Group Ltd

TSX:MTL

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Mullen Group Limited Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions].

I would now like to turn the conference over to Murray K. Mullen, Chair, Senior Executive Officer and President. Please go ahead.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Thank you. Welcome, everyone, to Mullen Group's quarterly conference call. We'll provide shareholders an interest and investors with an overview of the third-quarter financial results. In addition, we will discuss the main drivers impacting operating performance. Our expectations for the balance of the year and close with a Q&A session. But before I commence today's review, I remind everyone that our presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on our current expectations and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and as such, actual results may differ materially. Further information identifying the risks, uncertainties and assumptions can be found in the disclosure documents, which are filed on SEDAR and at www.mullengroup.com.

So with me this morning, I have our senior team. We have Richard Maloney, who's the Senior Operating Officer; Joanna Scott, Senior Corporate Officer; and Carson Urlacher, who's our Senior Accounting Officer. So as I start looking at Q3 2022 financial operating performance, I'll start by using my recollection from the July investor call in that based upon our strong Q2 results that I believe that we are on target to achieve annual revenues of around $2 billion and EBITDA of $300 million. But based upon our Q3 results, it's evident that I was only half right.

The revenue number looks to be on target. However, it now appears very likely that EBITDA will be higher than the $300 million that I had talked about in Q2. Carson Urlacher will dig deeper into our quarter results in a few moments. But what I can say is that Q3 was another great quarter for our organization. Our focus on yield, margin and profitability shows and results, strong revenues, great EBITDA, improving margins and a cash flow that positions MTL for the very sound future. So now for the details on the quarter, I'll turn it over to Carson Urlacher. Carson, you're up.

[Carson Urlacher, executive]

All right. Well, thank you, Murray, and good morning, everyone. I'll provide a bit more detail. However, our third quarter interim report fully explains our financial performance. As such, I will just speak to some of the highlights. This is the second consecutive quarter where we've generated in excess of $500 million in revenue. And now on a trailing 4 quarters basis, we've generated over $1.9 billion in revenue, along with $318 million in OIBDA and $1.25 in earnings per share. In the third quarter, we generated $518 million in revenue, a record compared to any previous third quarter.

Revenue increased by approximately $86 million or 20% compared to the prior year and was primarily due to 3 reasons: first, general rate increases, along with steady demand, resulted in a $40 million increase in revenue. Secondly, fuel surcharge revenue increased by $37 million due to the 63% year-over-year increase in the price of diesel fuel. And lastly, we recognized $9 million of incremental revenue from acquisitions. In terms of adjusted OIBDA, we generated approximately $98 million, again, a record compared to any previous third quarter and second to only one previous quarter being the first quarter of 2012, where we generated $99 million of adjusted OIBDA -- adjusted OIBDA increased by $33.7 million or 52% compared to the third quarter of 2021, with all three of our asset-based segments contributing to the increase.

In terms of margin, our adjusted OIBDA margin improved by 4% to 18.9% in 2022 compared to 14.9% in 2021 and was mainly due to rate increases implemented in 2022, which more than offset inflationary costs. Sequentially, operating -- adjusted operating margin improved by almost a full point from the 18% generated in the second quarter of 2022. Now let's take a quick look at how we performed by segment.

Starting with our largest asset base segment, our LTL segment grew by $32.5 million to $201 million. $21 million of the increase was due to higher fuel surcharge, $9 million was due to acquisitions, while general rate increases and steady consumer demand added $2.4 million in segment revenue. Adjusted OIBDA increased by $14 million to $41 million in the quarter, which was largely due to rate increases implemented in the current year, while acquisitions accounted for $1.7 million of the increase. The continued strength in consumer spending held freight volume steady, while rate increases led to higher revenue and adjusted OIBDA.

Adjusted operating margin increased by 4.5% to 20.4% as compared to 15.9% in 2021. The adjusted operating margin of 20.4% was relatively flat on a sequential basis. Our second largest asset base segment is our L&W segment, which grew revenues by $34 million to $156 million compared to the prior year and was essentially flat on a sequential basis. Of the $34 million increase in revenue, $22 million was due to general rate increases and strong demand for freight services while fuel surcharge accounted for the remaining $11.9 million increase in revenue. Adjusted OIBDA increased by $10 million to $32.7 million in the quarter and was mainly due to rate increases that led to the strong performance at virtually all of our business units.

Adjusted operating margin increased to 20.9% in 2022 from 18.6% in 2021 as freight rates remained elevated and more than offset inflationary costs. On a sequential basis, adjusted operating margin improved by 1.4%. Our third asset base segment is our S&I segment. Revenues in this segment were up $23 million to $108.8 million in the quarter, which was mainly due to rate increases and strong demand for specialized services, including dewatering, water management, pipeline hauling, oil field activity and construction projects in Northern Manitoba. Adjusted OIBDA increased by $9 million or 57% in the quarter compared to the prior year.

Our adjusted operating margin increased by 4.4% to 22.6% compared to the prior year due to price increases, the strong performance at Canadian Dewatering and greater oilfield activity levels. Sequentially, adjusted operating margins improved by 2.2% compared to our most recent quarter. Lastly, our non-asset-based U.S. 3PL segment. Revenue in this segment was down slightly to $54.7 million as freight demand in the United States for full truckload shipments softened in the third quarter and negatively impacted revenue in this segment. Adjusted operating margins were 2.7% on a gross basis, while operating margins on a net revenue basis were 28.8%.

Margins were negatively impacted by higher-than-normal contractor expense and an increase in S&A costs as we continue to add talented IT staff to continue to build out our technology platform. Our net income was $38 million or $0.41 per common share, both up over 100% compared to the prior year. When we look at net income and EPS on an adjusted basis, which really excludes the gain and loss generated from how we account for our U.S. dollar-denominated debt and our cross-currency swaps, which essentially provides a pure economic hedge on the principal repayment on such debt, we generated $47 million of adjusted net income or $0.51 on an adjusted EPS basis. Our adjusted EPS on a trailing 4 quarters basis was $1.41 per common share. We continue to buy back our stock by repurchasing and canceling just over 206,000 common shares at an average price of $12.11 in the quarter. As a result of our strong performance, our return on equity improved to 16.6% in the quarter and 14.3% on a year-to-date basis.

Looking at some other notable items, we continue to generate cash in excess of our operating needs as net cash from operating activities in the period was $95.7 million compared to $37.3 million in 2021. This increase of $58 million was mainly due to 2 things: one, being the $33.6 million increase in OIBDA and the other was due to a $24 million year-over-year variance and changes from non-cash working capital items.

This strong cash flow generation enabled us to reduce the amount being borrowed on our credit facilities by over $40 million in the third quarter alone. Our balance sheet remains strong. Our debt to operating cash flow covenant under our private debt agreement is down to 1.98:1, which is the lowest level we've seen since 2014. We have a total of $250 million of bank credit facilities available to us, of which we had $98.7 million drawn at the end of the quarter, leaving us with approximately $150 million of room available. This trend of paying down debt on our credit facility has continued into the fourth quarter. The repayment amounts on our credit facilities over the last half of 2022, we believe is just one of the highlights of our results so far this year and really provides us with increased flexibility to be able to adapt to market conditions as we head into 2023. So with that, Murray, I will pass the conference back to you.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well done. Thank you, Carson. So as we shift gears now and we start looking at the outlook section, and I'll give a few comments, and then we'll move right to the Q&A session. But it's pretty obvious that with 3 quarters that are now completed, that we've generated some excellent results for this organization. Economic conditions have been favorable. And we've really grown quite nicely with a couple of some very key good acquisitions. But looking backwards doesn't always foretell the future and one must look at what could change. So investors, in fact, all stakeholders are continuously focused on what comes next.

And when it comes to predicting the future, we all have our thoughts, our opinions and our views, you have yours, and I have mine. So I will use the next few minutes to provide my best analysis of what the balance of '22 looks like for the Mullen Group. Now it should be obvious to everyone on the call today that there's a fair amount of uncertainty these days, which really means that it is difficult to predict with any degree of conviction. Top of the list is financial stress caused by rising interest rates. Wars are ugly and damaging to way too many people and a changing geopolitical landscape, which will undoubtedly alter supply chains need to be taken into consideration.

Energy and all of those important and those all-important computer chips are huge issues and will be front and center as politicians migrate the supply concerns. With these topics in mind, I have a number of thoughts as to how our business should perform. And I'll break from the tradition and some and just use what I call bullet points, and let's call it my Twitter account short and to the point. So let's start with the economy. I don't see any growth. There's downside risks that are now elevated. But let's not listen to me. Let's hear it from the experts.

If we listen to politicians, both sides of the border, there will only be a slight downturn. If you listen to all of the economists, a material downturn is almost certainly. Financial exports, they're warning of the consequences of interest rates continue to be pushed higher. So who do you believe? That's your choice. But what is pretty clear is that manufacturing, at least of critical components is coming back to North America. There's an excellent read on how FedEx [ is ] these new conditions. And for reference, I suggest those interested should read the October 5, '22 economic report that summarizes and really dovetails quite nicely with what our viewpoints are.

Now what about the consumer -- in the absence of significant job losses, I suggest the consumer will continue to spend. So this is the #1 issue I focus on because if the job market remains strong, consumption will remain steady. It will perhaps change, but it will still be okay. And we all must remember that we are a consumer-driven economy. Another important element, capital investment. I'm still of the view that the key to bringing prices down to controlling inflation is adding supply, capital project, construction activity, oil and gas drilling. All of this is required and oh, by the way, speaking of oil and gas drilling, did I just hear that our Minister of Finance. He's advocating that Canada must do more to help our European friends and allies with energy supplies and that the federal government will fast-track projects. Wow, I haven't heard anything like this since the days of the Harper government.

So how about number four, all things considered? How will we be impacted? From my perspective, no growth does not mean contraction. Order book is still sound and based upon everything we currently see. I still expect somewhere around $500 million in consolidated revenues in Q4, meaning that our $2 billion target for 2022 is achievable. At $500 million in revenue, we have the potential of generating in excess of $90 million in EBITDA next quarter, which means 22% will be a record year.

What about on the people side? Well, we're currently fully staffed at this time and people are now available, and we are still here at Mullen Group old school when it comes to recruiting new employees. This means we do the interviewing of the employee. We ask what you bring to our team, and we will not lower our standards. Everyone must contribute and I must say this, some really good candidates have joined our winning team lately. In terms of pricing, rates are stabilizing. Perhaps they might come down somewhat, but cost of remaining sticky eye like wages, facility costs, equipment costs.

Prices will not go back to where they were in 2020. Furthermore, any price declines will be short-lived in my view because low prices, combined with high cost, we'll crush those at price discounts deeply. Now there's one exception that -- in the marketplace that I think prices may still move higher, and that relates to oil and natural gas services activity. We still think prices must rise if drilling activity in Western Canada reaches that magical 250 active rigs working. And if that's the case, then prices will rise in this sector of the economy. Now I don't want to dwell on the oil and natural gas sector because so many investors shown the space, but is becoming increasingly evident that the world steel needs carbon even as economies transition to the net zero world, Canada is blessed with some of the best natural resources in the world.

The only question therefor is, do we share our plentiful bond or not? Ask Europe and they may have the key to Canada's energy riddle. -- supply chain issues. -- pockets of disruption remain, although most issues are starting to be resolved. In saying this, there will always be some disruptions. This is a tight market. For example, let's look at our warehouse space. It is still very tight due to high inventory levels. Quite simply, we can only handle new volumes when existing inventory is sold or liquidated in other words, on Paladin, on pallet out. How about equipment? Virtue everything is on allocation today, even if we wanted to purchase more trucks, for example, we cannot get them. And we expect these challenges to persist into '23, '24.

Secondly, the price of a new heavy-duty truck has virtually doubled since a few years ago. And to Canadian companies, this is partially due to the cap of the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar. But it's also due in inflation and changing truck design. So think about what this will mean with the price of the truck doubling for Canadian truckers or independents that have old trucks, they have to increase their prices dramatically. Competition, as I said, the trucking industry is dominated by independent contractors. They work hard, but many do not have the right equipment for today's market. In other words, it is old and not very fuel efficient. They will struggle, which means supply may shrink. And as I just mentioned, can they even afford a new drug? And I could tell you that it's not if they cut rates.

So fuel prices. This one is tricky because I subscribe to the thesis of the crude oil markets are close to being undersupplied. If you layer on top of tight crude oil markets, you got to think about refining capacity issues. This too is very limited, and it's due to years of chronic underinvesting, meaning that if one thing goes wrong and they usually do at some point, there will be shortage of refined products. Under this scenario, I believe fuel prices will stay elevated. This is why having the right equipment, expect to get good fuel mileage as a competitive advantage. Fuel prices are one of the largest input costs of the transportation set.

So if it only makes sense that one should manage these costs very, very closely, and I can tell you at Mullen Group, we do. What about acquisitions? Well, truthfully, we're being cautious these days, although we have deals thrown at us every week. We will continue to look at tuck-ins and smaller deals that strengthen our current market and competitive positions. And I can also comment that valuations are coming down.

Carson mentioned a little bit about the last topic and then I'll turn it over to the call to the Q&A, and that's the balance sheet. I really don't see any reason to leverage the balance sheet at this time given the uncertainties at the moment. Time is on our side. So we have chosen a path of prudence and caution. And with our decision to slow acquisition growth, that free cash flow we generate simply is allocated to debt repayment. It's quite conceivable in fact, that we have no bank debt by year-end given the cash flow we project and the potential to monetize some non-core assets. So that will leave us with roughly $250 million to pursue growth when the time is right.

So with that, enough of the [ Twitter ] talking points, let's move right to the Q&A session. I'll turn it over to the operator.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from Kevin Chiang of CIBC.

[Kevin Chiang, analyst]

Congrats on a good Q3 there. Murray, maybe I could start with your outlook comments, optimistic about 2022, but cognizant of the risks that could be facing the economy in 2023. I'm just wondering, what does that mean in terms of how you prepare for that? Because it seems like you're facing 2 extreme situations here where you're resourcing for continued strength, which means do over resource in the event that there is a downturn in 2023? Just like how much flexibility do you think you can bring into the operating model in the event that we do enter into a mild recession or a deeper recession, as you mentioned in your prepared remarks?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

And are you specifically referencing '23, Kev?

[Kevin Chiang, analyst]

Yes. Just given our strong 2022, it feels like that you're not going to be pulling resources now.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. Where we still have room, Kev, I think, as you know, in the truckload business, which were really not dominated in our business model with truckload business. We do some but not. That's just a transaction. That's just what does the market do because you can't find yield in truckload. Where do you find yield is in small package or LTL. So we'll focus on yield and management and process improvement that will help -- I'm still optimistic we can improve an LTL a bit. We still have a lot of room there. Now there's a lot of hard work to get yield management, but I still think there's some operating efficiencies we get -- some of the trucking, the logistics warehousing side, now that's going to be a little tricky on yield, but I think that's going to hold in pretty sticky just due to the makeup of our business models that we have in there. We've got warehousing. That's not changing.

Can we drive margin yield next year of that one? I think that would be a bit of a stretch. But we still have lots of levers to pull to protect the margin, but maybe not improve margin in logistics and warehousing. In the U.S. 3PL side, that one is -- that one, I don't have enough to know whether that one I can improve margin there or not. I don't think we will because what we're going to do is really focus on building up the technology there. Even in this quarter, our margin was down a little bit, but that's just because we're investing for the future. And we don't capitalize our IT spend, we just expense it. And -- but IT is the queue to -- and development is the key to that business on a go-forward basis.

And so we'll probably continue to invest in that one. So I don't see margin improvement, but we're going to build for the future because markets come, markets go. And then in the specialized and industrial side, potential margin improvement primarily for the reason I talked about if the oil and gas sector is going to increase drilling activity at all, then prices will rise as activity increases because that market is very, very tight right at the moment. So maybe we can move margin to summarize in LTL a little bit. But truthfully, I think we'll really be focused on protecting margin next year more than coming out aggressively and saying I can increase margin in a tougher economic environment, and that's what we think is going to happen. So we'll work hard on protecting rather than improving. But that means we've got to work hard. We're going to have to have some productivity gains next year, for sure.

[Kevin Chiang, analyst]

That's great color and a fair comment. Your Q3 results were strong, but I'd like to -- if you could provide us a monthly cadence of how that progressed just because some of the U.S. carriers and I know the business hasn't fully overlap with what you do, so the KPIs aren't the same. But a number of the companies that have reported, whether it's FedEx or not wise to suggest that they saw a pretty material deceleration in demand in September, maybe more so than they would have anticipated even back in August. And so you're seeing that play through when they report Q3. What have you seen in your book of business? I know it's primarily Canada. But are you seeing something similar in Canada? Or is that holding up better?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

I don't see material deterioration, Kevin. No, there are certain pockets that you might see material deterioration. If you were in the truckload business, you've seen a material deterioration because the inventory buildup scenario that we had from '20, '21, early '22 is over. Now it's -- they've got to liquidate those high inventories. So I'd expect that will be soft for most of '23. But the retailers have worked through their inventory issues, and then they'll have to go back and replenish again sometime in '23. I'm pretty sure. Unless you have material job losses, which I'm not predicting that, there's a no. I just don't see that happening.

So long as the consumer is strong, I don't see any material downturn in business activity. I see no growth -- and the only growth that we may see is maybe in the energy-related business where you've got to add supply if you want to bring -- if you want to keep prices from going through the roof. I don't see anything material. Now if you have business in Europe, which we do not, we might be talking a different story. So anybody that had business in Europe and FedEx at a whole bunch. That's not a pretty place to be right now. But in North America, where would you rather be? I'd rather be in North America than anywhere. So I like our position.

[Kevin Chiang, analyst]

No, that's great color. Maybe just last one for me. I think on your Q1 call, maybe on your Q4 call, you talked about just -- there's a lot of high-cost capacity in the market, just people that have entered in during the pandemic. And obviously, they're seen higher OpEx costs, higher driver costs, higher trucking costs, capital asset costs. Are you seeing some of that capacity exit the market as we've seen a little bit of softness in the freight world? Or is that just something you think will eventually happen? Or are you actually starting to see that happen today?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. I think that's -- that's exactly what happened. We saw high cost in Q1 and the marketplace was in a bit of disarray in Q1. We were -- our businesses were probably a little bit slow on the pricing side. And because we use so many subcontractors and independents, the independents moved faster than we did. And that's because we have the relationship with the customer and you had to be very careful not to get too far ahead of your customer. They have to see that the things are changing before you go in and slap them with a big price increase.

But you saw what happened post Q1 with all those price increases and all the productivity losses that have been built into the systems post-COVID. Prices went up and then you saw what happened when we raised prices. That's why our EBITDA has gone up into the $90 million to $100 million range just because of pricing increases. The subcontractors are lowering prices now. The market slows down, and we took advantage of the last quarter, which is why we're up over second quarter a bit. They're very, very price sensitive on the day-to-day because they're all spot market, whereas a lot of our business is either through contract with customers or it's with relationships. So you got to be pretty careful how you manage that in our view.

Look, there has been a lack of productivity in our business, in the economy post-COVID. There's more vacation days. There's more leave days. There's lots of weighting is still bottlenecks, the rails, the warehouses, all of that leads to additional cost. And that has to be passed on in your price. And that might normalize here over this next bit as it slows down. And maybe we can get back to getting productivity gains again and growing our business the old-fashioned way, which is you earn it rather than just price it.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Konark Gupta of Scotiabank.

[Konark Gupta, analyst]

Congrats on a good quarter. Great to see the margins expanding in a tough inflationary environment here. So I wanted to dig in on the rate environment, Murray, you mentioned, obviously, the subcontractors are lowering the rates right now. We all know what's happening in the sport markets these days. So the fear is the spot market will eventually transpire into the contract market. So any insights you can provide on your LTL business? Do you think if inflation slows down here and your demand slows down, do you see a risk where the LTO rate environment becomes negative, meaning rates instead of being up high single, low double, can they be down low single, mid-single rate next year?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

I don't really see that, as so long as the consumer stays active. Now the consumer squeeze with inflation, we all know that. And they just adjust their spend, but they're still spending. And so -- and that's really what drives LTL business. So we're okay on that side. And as I said, we still can work on some productivity improvements and drive yield management, and we're looking at all creative things to make sure that we can do that in all of our businesses that are tied to the LTL side. So LTL looks pretty sticky. I don't see a lot of big change there. Where we have seen the big change is in that truckload space where the prices went sky rocket. Well, they're coming back to earth and maybe below. But in the LTL, they just went up steady. Just you can even look at our margin. You're up a couple of points, but it's not a 10-point move.

So there was no big gouging of customers or whatever. There was really good solid demand with steady pricing increases. And I think what we're going to do is just work on high-grading some of our -- the freight that we're hauling to make sure that we get good yield management there. So I think the LTL will stay pretty sticky. No growth. The only growth we get is that we do tuck-in acquisitions, but I think the pricing will stay pretty sticky. And we'll probably get pricing increases in '23, something equal to what labor cost will go up or something like that and those things, which from our perspective, the inflation is coming down fast. We don't have the same pricing leverage in the marketplace that we had before. There's still inflation but nowhere near at the same elevated level that it has been for the last 12 months or so.

[Konark Gupta, analyst]

Okay. No, that's great color. And the last one for me before I turn it over. You talked about the priority being debt repayment right now. So I was just curious, with respect to your capital priorities other than debt repayment, where do you see those as -- especially as the M&A slows down here? I mean, again, in terms of dividend, buybacks or capital envelope, especially in the Alberta market, if you can provide any color.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. I don't think we'll -- we're just going to stay the course here over the next bit, Carson?

[Carson Urlacher, executive]

Yes. I would -- I think what we're doing right now is being prudent with the balance sheet and managing for 2023. Just being cautious just to ensure that either if things go sideways, we're in a debt structure that would be just fine for if things turn and grow positive, we'll then -- then you've got that balance sheet that you can go ahead and do acquisitions and continue the growth story. So by prudently paying down our operating line, we're getting ready for either scenario going into 2023.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

In terms of M&A, really, we take our cue from the -- from our shareholders. And right now, when we speak to shareholders, they're more cautious. They're really not going to reward us for growth. They -- so why would we pursue M&A unless shareholders reward us for that -- for taking that risk? It appears that shareholders are risk-averse. So we'll just take our cue from them. And then any acquisition that we do, we're looking at whether we can see clear and obvious synergies so that we can drive margin out of that for our existing businesses.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from David Ocampo of Cormark Securities.

[David Ocampo, analyst]

I wanted to focus a little bit on the S&I segment. You talked a little bit about rig counts moving up. What's it going to take for you guys to deploy more capital to that division? Is it significant rate increases or more demand from your customers, what they're going to take from you guys commitment from the cash there?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes, commitment from the customers. I always said to our customers, look, you can't ask for commitment, unless you give a commitment. So you give us a commitment, we'll go make the capital. But on the capital front, and even if they gave us a commitment today, I can't get the capital anyhow. The market is too tight. So that would tell me in any -- it's just a market. The market's tight. So if they decide that they're going to spend a little bit more money because they want to add growth or whatever, that's -- the prices are going to going to go up because it's just a very, very tight market right now. So -- but we're not going to make big capital investments until we get a commitment from customers.

[David Ocampo, analyst]

And does the margin profile need to be significantly higher, just given the volatility and the cyclicality of that division? I mean you're doing 20-point margin, you're doing 20 points in your trucking assets, which is almost identical, but the risk profiles are different.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. If you are going to go in the energy space, you're going to need -- if you're going to make a capital commitment, you're going to get a heck of a more than 20% margin, but we won't even entertain anything at a 20-point margin. Now we may make 20-point margins, David, in some of our -- in some of ours, but that's because we use subcontractors, not because we make that cap, we have a big capital commitment. But if we're going to have a big capital commitment, you're going to see north of 25-point margins or else, we're not even going to entertain it.

[David Ocampo, analyst]

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then just going back to Kevin's initial question about your 2023 and how much you can flex the capacity there. And if I go back to the depth of the pandemic, revenues were down 20% in the Q2, but your margins were relatively flat. What's it going to take for the margins to dip? Is it a 30 point drop in revenues, and that's when you can't pull on the levers that you have to keep margins at the same levels that they are today.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well, honestly, I think for us to move that margin dramatically, you'd have to have pricing increases again. And that's really a market-driven thing. Like I said to you, I don't know if we're going to drive margin improvement in '23 unless there's pricing improvements. I don't think we can make it up on productivity massively. What I think we can do is protect margin. I think that's going to be our #1 focus. If we can improve it, I'll do handstands and backflips. I'm not going to predict that. That's -- it's a slowing -- we all know it's got slow. I mean that's how you're going to tame inflation, either team inflation by slowing demand or increase in supply, you can add supply fast. So they're going to slow it for a little bit. I get it. And so we're just going to stand our lane and add to cash. We generate a ton of cash, and that will position us as to when we want to really accelerate our growth one more time through acquisition, and then we'll look for companies that we can find good synergies that can drive margin improvement.

[David Ocampo, analyst]

Let me ask it another way. And if you see a 10-point drop in your top line, do you think you can still defend your margins?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

We can -- I think we can -- a good chunk of our business is with independent contractors, we just manage the spread. So if the -- if business comes down, well, that means on the spot market, if the prices come down. So that really doesn't change a whole bunch. It didn't change on the way up, but it didn't change the way down. You will -- we could lose a little bit of margin if you lose 10%, but that would be a huge drop. I mean I'm not -- we're not going there, but that I see any scenario of 10% drop in business. But it depends, I guess, as to how aggressive the Fed is going to be. If they want to take interest rates up and you have job losses, anything is on the table. We've got multiple scenarios. David, I'll leave it to you to which scenario you think is going to go, and then you can go pick your poison from there. But if we lost 10% of revenue, I doubt if we could maintain margin. I think it's going to be -- you've got a pretty tough environment there. So -- I'm not predicting that, but you may. That's your call.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Matthew Weekes of iA Capital Markets.

[Matthew Weekes, analyst]

My first question is just clarifying an earlier comment. Did you say during the opening remarks that you have the potential to exceed $90 million in EBITDA next quarter?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes, we're doing $500 million. I think it's conceivable that we could do 90%, and that's what I said it's conceivable. If -- and I don't see a big change in the demand for the fourth quarter. So we have the potential to do it. I'm not -- and if we did $500 million, we'll probably do -- we'll do $90 million if we do $500 million. So we're -- that's where we're at. Yes, that's what we think we could do.

So that -- will it be that? I don't know. This is a pretty fluid market right now. But based upon what we see right now, I think we're still on target for roughly $500 million for the fourth quarter.

[Matthew Weekes, analyst]

That makes sense. And I appreciate the clarification on that. And then just one and thinking about demand to maybe different pockets of demand. I'm just wondering if you can roughly break down on exposure on the consumer side of the business. How much of the shipments would generally be discretionary goods, say, non-discretionary?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

You know what, I don't have that at my fingertips. That's I don't have that We don't track... Yes, we don't track it that way. But I think if you looked at the overall economy, and you can look at it and look it up as to what's discretionary and nondiscretionary. You could probably accurately predict that we're somewhere around there because all we do is service the consumer basically with LTL. But I don't have it at my fingertips.

[Matthew Weekes, analyst]

No, that's okay. I figured out ask. And my last question is just on oilfield services. And it seems like there's a lot of structural tightness in that market, driving a lot of high prices. And that was likely to persist and I imagine you've been spending -- investing less in that business over the recent years. I was just wondering if you could comment on what the returns on capital might be like in that area of the business compared to recent years and maybe even compared to pre-2016 years and what returns you might be earning at this point?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well, geez, I don't have that. It's an asset-based business. So let me just comment on the oilfield service for a second before I try and get into that granular stuff you're asking. Number one is oilfield services, we think, will remain tighter than the overall economy for the reasons that we've talked about is that there's a chronic under shortage -- under the market's undersupply for energy. So that market will stay tighter than the overall economy in our view. So that means prices will stay up or may stay elevated or maybe go up.

On our returns on capital employed, we don't have -- I think we have to go through that. And before I comment on that, we'd have to do that off-line. I think, Matthew, that's I don't have that right here on each one. Our business are different. Some of our old patch, we use subcontractors. Some is -- we got a lot of -- we got a lot of capital employed. In the old days, we used to make 25, 30 points on capital employed over the last bit, that's been way, way down. But in the future, if we're going to put new capital work, we're going to make 25 to 30 points. So we're not making the capital investment. It's that simple.

[Matthew Weekes, analyst]

So that makes sense. I appreciate the commentary. And apologies if the questions were a little bit granular. And I think that's it for me. So I'll turn the callback.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. Okay. Very good. I think just give Carson a call and maybe we can work through that specific one, but we don't have that right in front of us here on that question.

[Matthew Weekes, analyst]

No, no problem. Yes, maybe we can touch base after the call.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Walter Spracklin of RBC Capital Markets.

[Walter Spracklin, analyst]

I guess I'm a little surprised, Murray, by your comment on acquisitions because you mentioned it was based on what investors in the market is valuing and I always look at your commentary in the past in your acquisition strategy as being something more long-term oriented that you're focusing less on what your stock is doing day to day and more on getting good businesses that can reinforce your business model going forward. You mentioned valuations are coming down and you have a prime balance sheet. So I would have thought that this would be the time you would start looking to ramp up acquisitions opportunistically regardless of what the market is doing day-to-day if it can improve your business. And I would have thought you'd be dedicating more capital toward it. So just curious to flesh out why you -- you're indicating you're going to step on the sidelines here on the acquisition side.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well, I think the #1 reason is that I think shareholders and equity markets are going to be -- have changed. We've now got a higher interest rate environment and growth at all costs is not a focus anymore of the markets. Profitability, returns running a great business. Those are things that are probably even more valued, and that's what I'm hearing from investors. But when I look at the markets, growth is not rewarded today as it once was in a very low interest rate environment. If interest rates are going to be up or stay elevated for a period of time, growth is going to be difficult. And if thing gets to the market is going to get tough next year, why would I buy somebody today valuations are coming down. Does that make any sense?

[Walter Spracklin, analyst]

Okay. Fair enough. That actually is a good segue into my next question for next year. Are you still planning on giving guidance in the same framework that you gave in the last -- in prior years? And if so, how do you approach giving guidance for next year? Are you going to assume a slowdown? You mentioned it can be anything from modest to really severe. What's going to be the approach that you take when you sit down and put pen to paper and give guidance for next year...

[Murray Mullen, executive]

That's an excellent question, one that we've debated here. And I think given all the crosscurrents that we see, it's really difficult to predict what will happen in '23 right now. We're winning -- I guess, unlike the Fed and the central bankers and everybody else and looking for more data points. I think we'll be in a better position to say what's 23 going to look like after we get through Q4. Thus far, I've said, I think we can maintain $500 million and still be very profitable in the fourth quarter. But I'm not ready to -- what I said is I thought that the slowdown that is going to come is a 23 what's going to happen in '23. So I want to see how Q4 really shakes out and see how my competitors respond and all those things before I really start talking about 23, Walter. I don't know if we'll come out in December with a 23%. If I -- if we have comfort that we know what's happening, I'll come out and they'll say, here's what we're going to do and this is how we think we'll shake it -- how it will shake out.

Otherwise, we might wait until we get Q4 out before I get too aggressive on trying to predict what the heck is going to happen next year. I'm trying to predict what will happen this quarter, and I hedge my bets on that. So I'll probably getting economic reports and listen to central bankers and listen to our customers. That's a big thing. We're listening to our customers, and we're watching what consumers do, those are the things we're really watching, along with really paying attention to how our competitors are handling this situation. We're in a way better position than most of our competitors. So we might have to -- we're just going to be cautious for the next bit. I think that's the right thing. And that's a message that we're telling to our shareholders. We're going to be prudent. We're going to be cautious and don't worry this market will go -- if it slows down, it's only going to slow down for a bit, and then we'll pick our spots when we do acquisitions. We are not going to force growth and leverage the balance sheet. I'd rather protect the balance sheet and wait for another day.

[Walter Spracklin, analyst]

That's great. And then my last question relates to something you mentioned there about listening to your customers, which customers do you think give you the best lead time for where the economy is going, where demand is going. In other words, what particular -- not the specific customer name, but perhaps what segment of your customer base do you really pay attention to when you look to gauge the tea leaves for how demand is developing over the foreseeable future?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

As you know, we just don't have one customer base. We're in nearly every vertical in terms of logistics that the Canadian economy covers. So we don't have this one. We look at all of them. What's happening in the auto sector, what's happening with consumer spend, what's happening with -- on the retail side, what's happening in the -- with our big industrial customers like Finning, what are they saying? What are the big oil and gas companies saying, what are they saying?

So we listen to all of them and then we package it all together and -- that's what we do. But I don't have just one we listen to. I watch one data point for a lot of cues, and that is the employment statistics. If deployment stays strong, we don't have to worry that much. If you start having job losses, we're going to have to have a rethink as to what's going to happen. There'll be a lot of people in a lot of trouble. And I'm not predicting that. I'm just saying that's the one I watch the most, is employment data.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Tim James of TD Securities.

[Tim James, analyst]

Congratulations on a great quarter here. I guess my first question, I'm going to return once again to this kind of M&A theme and there's 2 parts to this. One, maybe, Murray, can you reflect back in your experience? If you had to look forward to past or at the right time when M&A starts to make sense again, can you foresee any particular regions or characteristics of targets that may appear for you in segments of your business or maybe it's regionally. Maybe just talk about what are most likely the kinds of opportunities that you'll eventually see. And then secondly is more of a confirmation. I mean do you feel that if you want to look on the bright side, the tougher next year is while it may obviously impact you next year, it might actually create even better opportunities from an M&A perspective, which over the long term, will actually put you even further ahead.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well, that's so here's our strategy on acquisitions. Number one is every acquisition we do has to fit our strategy. We don't do it, and growth is not the strategy. It's about whether it fits in the markets that we see the future of logistics and transportation going. So we'll always make long-term investments if the right opportunity comes along. But number 2, is you'd love to do acquisitions when you see some change and in the markets. And we hit some really well in '21 when we saw markets tightening and potential for getting pricing increases. And therefore, you not only do you grow, but you get margin improvement, which means the valuation metrics that you paid on, you look really smart with that. You don't want to be conversely buying doing an acquisition and paying and then you have margin deterioration.

So based upon what you're saying and every analyst that I heard this morning and nobody knows what's going to happen, why would we take a guess on what's going to happen with the margins next year when I don't know what -- I know we're going to have to work hard to protect margins. So you never want to do an acquisition and then margins go down. And then I think the third one is, can we find synergy? Can I find a way that we get market penetration that we get yield management and that we can reduce cost to drive margin. It's not about growth, it's about margin. And in saying that, I should also say, of course, that it's also a return on capital because some of the business we acquire are non-asset businesses correct. And so they may have a lower margin, but they got a great return on capital employed.

[Tim James, analyst]

Right. Okay. That's helpful. My second question, when you talk about what you see right now, how far out is your visibility now? And I'm thinking fairly short term. Obviously, you've got a good sense for what October holds and I suppose left for November and then December. But do you have good visibility on the pricing side as you look through the rest of the quarter and it's maybe more a volume question that gives more uncertainty? I'm wondering if you could talk through what your visibility time frame looks like.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Well, I don't have any visibility. I'll be in with you on that. That's why weren't touch with all of our businesses every week, and we get -- we have regular updates from them. What's happening in the marketplace right now because all the other stuff is just the markets move so fast today and they'll move on anything. So we don't have great visibility. What we have is basic assumptions. And we've said, I feel better about I think volumes will hold in pretty steady because there's backlogs and we're still going to move stuff. I haven't seen -- there's no real crack in pricing on the contract side. It's getting tougher, but it's -- I don't see the cracks where there is cracks and pricing is on the spot market.

If you're reliant upon the spot market, there's a big delta in that for sure right now. But we haven't seen too much on the contract side yet. And we're entering into with some of our major clients. And -- but it's -- those are getting to be tougher conversations. I'll be blunt on that. That's why I say it's absolutely important that we work on productivity improvements to mitigate the challenges that might arise in the market on the pricing getting pricing. And that's healthy for the economy long term that we start focusing on productivity, again, not just getting pricing increases. That's good for everyone. And that really fits in our bailiwick because that's going to put pressure on our competitors that don't take that long-term view that we do.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. Our next question comes from Michael Robertson of National Bank Financial.

[Michael Storry-Robertson, analyst]

Congrats on another really solid quarter here, and -- most of the things I wanted to touch on have been covered already. I was just wondering -- I noted in the MD&A, you guys highlighted that -- of the 3 noncore or potential noncore asset divestitures, you noted on the Q2 call with the LOIs. One of them had expired without closing. The other 2 were still ongoing, I guess. I was just wondering, if you'd expect that to be a Q4 event, how that was progressing. And also what EBITDA loss you guys would expect with that potential divestment?

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Yes. So you're right. The one expired. The other 2 are still we expect to close. But this -- I think if they don't close, that's really foretelling that the financial markets have something has happened in the financial markets. It's not the business side. And I think that really happened on the first one where they just couldn't come up with a financing. So I think a lot of it will do how the financial markets respond over the next bit as to whether those other 2 close in the fourth quarter, which we expect -- that is our expectation. At the moment, they will close. And it will have minimal impact on our EBITDA. I think, of course, in terms of that.

So really what the storyline on that will be is that we just bring in a lot of cash. And that's why we say we could be at net 0 in terms of bank debt by the end of the year if we close these 2 transactions and with the cash flow that we're going to generate from operations in Q4, like even right now, I mean our bank debt is below where we were at the end of the quarter end of Q3. So we keep paying off debt quite nicely. What you want to do is interest rate -- interest rates are going to go up again. So we want to have less debt in a high interest rate environment, and we'll see whether those other two close. I'm optimistic. I'm hopeful, but I don't -- we've got to get through the rest of the due diligence and to closing dates. We will know by the end of the year. Yes. We will know that in Q4, in December as we come out.

[Operator]

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mullen for any closing remarks.

[Murray Mullen, executive]

Thanks for joining us folks. I think that covers it all. Really a strong quarter for us again, and we look forward to another strong quarter this one coming up. Hopefully, we can deliver the same quality results that we've delivered for the last while. So until then, we're going to be very, very prudent with our investors' capital. Thank you very much, and have a great day.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.