Keyera Corp
TSX:KEY
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one KEY stock under the Base Case scenario is 43.23 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 47.39 CAD, Keyera Corp is Overvalued by 9%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Keyera Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Keyera Corp. is a prominent player in the Canadian midstream energy sector, primarily focused on natural gas processing and transportation. Established in 1998 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Keyera operates a vast network of facilities that include gas plants, pipeline systems, and industrial services, all designed to support the thriving natural gas industry in Western Canada. The company’s strategic position in the Montney and Duvernay shale formations, two of North America’s most significant resource plays, allows it to serve a diverse range of customers. By leveraging its integrated asset base, Keyera not only enhances operational efficiency but also provides reliable services th...
Keyera Corp. is a prominent player in the Canadian midstream energy sector, primarily focused on natural gas processing and transportation. Established in 1998 and headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Keyera operates a vast network of facilities that include gas plants, pipeline systems, and industrial services, all designed to support the thriving natural gas industry in Western Canada. The company’s strategic position in the Montney and Duvernay shale formations, two of North America’s most significant resource plays, allows it to serve a diverse range of customers. By leveraging its integrated asset base, Keyera not only enhances operational efficiency but also provides reliable services that bolster the entire natural gas supply chain.
For investors, Keyera presents a compelling opportunity thanks to its solid revenue streams, characterized by long-term contracts and fee-for-service agreements that create a predictable cash flow model. This stability is underscored by the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders through consistent dividend payments. With a strong focus on sustainability and transitioning towards lower-carbon energy solutions, Keyera is positioning itself to adapt to the evolving energy landscape, making it an attractive option for those looking to invest in a resilient and forward-thinking company. The recent expansions and diversification efforts further strengthen Keyera's portfolio, promising potential growth while safeguarding against market volatility.
Keyera Corp. is a Canadian energy company that primarily operates in the oil and gas sector. The core business segments of Keyera can be categorized as follows:
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Natural Gas Processing: This segment involves the processing of natural gas to remove impurities and separate natural gas liquids (NGLs). Keyera operates a network of processing plants that serve various producers, ensuring efficient handling of raw gas and recovery of marketable products.
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NGL Infrastructure: Keyera owns and operates an extensive infrastructure that supports the transportation, storage, and marketing of NGLs. This includes pipelines, tanks, and other facilities that help facilitate the movement of these liquids to markets.
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Transportation and Logistics: In this segment, Keyera provides services related to the transportation of NGLs and other hydrocarbon products. This includes transporting products from processing facilities to end-users or other distribution points.
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Natural Gas Liquids Marketing: Keyera engages in marketing activities for NGLs, helping to optimize the sales and logistics of these products in various markets. This involves trading and negotiating sales agreements to maximize profitability for the company and its customers.
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Midstream Services: Keyera also offers midstream services that include gathering, processing, and transporting hydrocarbons. This segment is crucial for supporting upstream exploration and production activities in the oil and gas sector.
Overall, Keyera Corp. focuses on providing integrated solutions that enhance the efficiency of natural gas and NGL operations, making it a significant player in the midstream segment of the energy industry.
Keyera Corp, a Canadian midstream company, has several competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the oil and gas industry. Here are some of the key factors:
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Integrated Operations: Keyera offers a full suite of midstream services, including natural gas processing, transportation, and storage. This integrated model helps reduce operational costs and improve efficiency, making it more attractive to producers.
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Strategic Location: Its facilities are strategically located in key resource areas in Alberta, which allows for proximity to a high concentration of natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) production. This advantageous positioning can lead to lower transportation costs and enhanced service delivery.
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Established Infrastructure: With a significant investment in infrastructure, Keyera has built an extensive network of processing plants and pipelines. This established infrastructure provides a competitive edge as it creates barriers to entry for new competitors and allows for greater scalability.
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Strong Customer Relationships: Keyera has developed long-term relationships with a diverse customer base, which includes large producers as well as smaller operators. Such relationships can lead to stable revenue through long-term contracts and a better understanding of client needs.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: The company benefits from a diversified portfolio of operations and revenue sources, including fee-based services, which can reduce profitability volatility during different market cycles.
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Financial Strength: Keyera has demonstrated strong financial management through disciplined capital allocation and a focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet. This financial strength allows the company to weather market fluctuations and invest in growth opportunities.
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Commitment to Sustainability: As the industry moves towards more sustainable practices, Keyera's commitment to environmental stewardship and reducing greenhouse gas emissions positions it well among increasingly environmentally conscious stakeholders and investors.
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Experienced Management Team: Keyera’s management team has a deep understanding of the industry, as well as a strong track record of executing strategic initiatives. Their experience can help navigate challenges and seize opportunities in a rapidly evolving market.
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Innovation and Technology: The company invests in technology and innovation, which can improve operational efficiency and cost management, further enhancing its competitive positioning.
By leveraging these advantages, Keyera Corp can effectively differentiate itself and maintain a strong position in the competitive landscape of the midstream oil and gas sector.
Keyera Corp, a Canadian energy company primarily involved in natural gas processing and transportation, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. These include:
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Commodity Price Volatility: Fluctuations in natural gas prices can significantly impact Keyera's revenue and profitability. A decline in prices could reduce demand for processing services.
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Regulatory Changes: The energy industry is subject to extensive regulations. Changes in environmental policies, taxation, or trade can create compliance challenges and affect operational costs.
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Infrastructure Investment: Keyera requires continuous investment in infrastructure to maintain and expand its operations. Delays or cost overruns in these projects can pressure financial performance.
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Market Competition: The energy sector is highly competitive. Keyera faces competition from other midstream operators, which could impact its market share and pricing power.
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Economic Conditions: A downturn in the economy can lead to reduced energy consumption and decreased production from upstream producers, affecting Keyera’s business.
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Operational Risks: The complexity of operating gas processing and transportation facilities includes risks of accidents, equipment failure, or operational inefficiencies that could disrupt service.
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Environmental Concerns: Increased scrutiny concerning environmental impact and climate change could lead to higher operating costs or necessitate changes to operations to meet sustainability goals.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues could impact the availability of necessary equipment and materials, increasing operational costs and delays in project completions.
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Shifts in Energy Demand: The transition towards renewable energy sources may reduce the demand for natural gas over the long term, impacting future growth prospects for Keyera.
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Debt Levels: If Keyera has significant debt, fluctuations in interest rates or cash flow could increase financial risk.
Keyera Corp needs to navigate these challenges strategically to sustain its growth and profitability.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Keyera Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Keyera Corp
Current Assets | 986.4m |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 31.4m |
Receivables | 598m |
Other Current Assets | 357m |
Non-Current Assets | 7.6B |
PP&E | 7.4B |
Intangibles | 77.6m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 148.6m |
Current Liabilities | 750.2m |
Accounts Payable | 663.4m |
Other Current Liabilities | 86.8m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 5B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Keyera Corp
Revenue
|
7.5B
CAD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-6B
CAD
|
Gross Profit
|
1.5B
CAD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-533.5m
CAD
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Operating Income
|
990.6m
CAD
|
Other Expenses
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-543.7m
CAD
|
Net Income
|
446.9m
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Keyera Corp
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
Keyera delivered robust Q3 results with net earnings of $185 million, significantly up from $78 million last year. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $322 million, driven by all business segments. The company reaffirmed its 2024 guidance for Marketing segment margins at $450-$480 million, with growth capital expected at $80-$100 million. Additionally, Keyera plans to pursue strategic share buybacks to enhance shareholder value while maintaining a strong financial position. Continued investments in frac expansions signal a commitment to capitalize on growth opportunities in Western Canada’s burgeoning market, positioning the company for sustainable future gains.
What is Earnings Call?
KEY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Keyera Corp's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Keyera Corp's profitability score is 55/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
KEY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Keyera Corp's solvency score is 36/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Keyera Corp's solvency score is 36/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
KEY Price Targets Summary
Keyera Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KEY is 45.56 CAD with a low forecast of 39.39 CAD and a high forecast of 52.5 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for KEY is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Keyera Corp. engages in the operation of assets in the oil and gas industry between the upstream sectors. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 1,005 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2003-05-30. The firm operates through three segments: Gathering and Processing, Liquids Infrastructure, and Marketing. The Gathering and Processing segment owns and operates raw gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, which collect and process raw natural gas, remove waste products and separate the economic components, primarily natural gas liquids (NGLs). The Liquids Infrastructure segment owns and operates a network of facilities for the gathering, processing, storage and transportation of the by-products of natural gas processing, including NGLs in mix form and specification NGLs such as ethane, propane, butane and condensate. Marketing segment includes marketing a range of products associated with its two infrastructure business lines, primarily propane, butane, condensate and iso-octane, and also engages in liquids blending.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one KEY stock under the Base Case scenario is 43.23 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 47.39 CAD, Keyera Corp is Overvalued by 9%.