Hudbay Minerals Inc
TSX:HBM
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
5.98
14.15
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches CAD.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Hudbay Minerals Inc
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Hudbay Minerals Inc., First Quarter 2021 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded today, May 12, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.I would now like to turn the conference over to Candace Brule, Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Hudbay's 2021 First Quarter Results Conference Call. Hudbay's financial results were issued yesterday and are available on our website at www.hudbay.com. A corresponding PowerPoint presentation is available and we encourage you to refer to it during this call.Our presenter today is Peter Kukielski, Hudbay's President and Chief Executive Officer. Accompanying Peter for the Q&A portion of the call will be Steve Douglas, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Cashel Meagher, our Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer; and Eugene Lei, our Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Strategy.Please note that comments made on today's call may contain forward-looking information and this information by its nature is subject to risks and uncertainties and as such actual results may differ materially from the views expressed today. For further information on these risks and uncertainties, please consult the company's relevant filings on SEDAR and EDGAR. These documents are also available on our website. As a reminder, all amounts discussed on today's call are in U.S. dollars, unless otherwise noted.And now I'll pass the call over to Peter Kukielski. Peter?
Thank you, Candace. Good morning, everyone, and thanks very much for joining us. Before I begin today's presentation, I wanted to recognize that the COVID situation continues to present a challenging operating environment for our business units.While we are encouraged by the recent rollout of vaccines in certain regions, we remain focused on adhering to our strict COVID protocols and procedures to ensure our workforce returns home safely to their families at the end of every shift. We have recently encountered cases in our operations and our safety protocols and contact tracing efforts have helped to ensure workplace transmission is limited. We are proud of our team's strong efforts over the past year, which has allowed our mines to continue to operate safely and efficiently.In this presentation today, I will touch on the past quarter's results followed by the progress we have made on our growth initiatives, an overview of our leading organic copper growth pipeline, and a recap of the many near-term catalysts at Hudbay. First quarter consolidated copper production was 24,600 tonnes, a 10% decrease from the fourth quarter of 2020. This was primarily as a result of lower mill throughput at Constancia due to a scheduled semi-annual mill maintenance shutdown, partially offset by higher copper grades at 777 and higher copper recoveries at the Flin Flon mill.Consolidated gold production increased by 10% compared to the previous quarter, achieving a new record for Hudbay due to higher gold grades at 777, higher gold recoveries at the Flin Flon concentrator, and higher gold grade at Constancia. Consolidated zinc production in the first quarter was 8% higher than the fourth quarter due to higher zinc grades and throughputs.Consolidated cash cost per pound of copper produced was $1.04 in the first quarter and increased compared to the fourth quarter due to lower copper production, higher operating costs, and lower by-product credits. Incorporating cash sustaining capital, royalties, selling, administrative and regional costs, consolidated all-in sustaining cash cost per pound of copper produced was $2.37, which increased from $2.24 in the fourth quarter due to the same factors impacting cash costs, but was offset by lower sustaining capital. Operating cash flow before change in non-cash working capital was $91 million during the first quarter, a slight increase from the prior period due to higher realized prices offset by lower sales volumes.Adjusted net loss per share and adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $0.06 per share and $104 million respectively after adjusting for one-off financing charges and the net mark-to-market loss on financial instruments among other items. This was relatively unchanged from the fourth quarter as higher realized prices were offset by lower sales volumes.First quarter Peru sales were impacted by a delay in the 10,000 tonnes shipment of copper concentrate valued at $20 million for which a payment was received in the first quarter but did not meet the revenue recognition criteria due to the delayed timing of the shipment into early April. First quarter Manitoba sales were impacted by a delay in accessing additional railcars after a strong copper production quarter. This resulted in the buildup of approximately 5,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in excess of normal operating levels which is valued at approximately $18 million.Had both parcels of copper concentrate been sold during the first quarter, we would have realized approximately $39 million of incremental revenue. These parcels have since been recognized as revenue and copper concentrate inventory levels have normalized in the second quarter.First quarter results were also negatively impacted by the realized copper price hedging of our provisionally priced copper sales. We exited the quarter with $311 million in cash and equivalents lower than end of last year, mainly as the result of capital investments as we complete our growth initiatives in Peru and Manitoba along with interest payments and bond refinancing fees during the quarter. Our full-year 2021 production and operation cost guidance has been reaffirmed and we are pleased to announce Pampacancha commence production at the end of April in line with the timelines incorporated into our guidance and recent updated mine plan.On Slide 4, you will find a summary of our operating results in Peru during the quarter. Constancia produced 17,800 tonnes of copper, 4,600 ounces of gold 406,000 ounces of silver, and 294 tonnes of molybdenum. Production was lower than the fourth quarter primarily because of lower throughput from a scheduled mill maintenance program that was delayed from the fourth quarter into the first quarter.Ore mined during the first quarter was lower than the fourth quarter as mining levels were optimized for low mill throughput while managing the level of contaminants and hardness in the ore sent to the mill. Ore milled during the first quarter was lower compared to the previous quarter due to the plant maintenance shutdown. Milled copper grades were relatively consistent with fourth quarter levels, while milled gold grades were higher as we exit higher grade ore from the deeper banks of the pits. Recoveries of copper were lower than the previous quarter, but in line with the recently issued Constancia mine plan and gold and silver recoveries remained relatively consistent with the previous quarter.Unit operating cost in the first quarter were higher than last quarter, primarily due to fewer tonnes of ore milled and increased operating cost related to the planned mill maintenance shutdown and enhanced COVID-19 protocols. The COVID-related costs amounted approximately $0.72 per tonne in the unit costs. However, even with projected elevated COVID costs for the balance of the year, we expect the full year unit operating costs to decline to be in line with our 2020 guidance range.Peru's cash cost was higher in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, primarily due to higher milling costs and lower copper production. Sustaining cash cost for the first quarter improved to $2.36 compared to $2.58 in the prior quarter due to lower cash sustaining capital spending, partially offset by the same factors affecting cash costs during the quarter.In early April 2021, we finalized the remaining land user agreements for Pampacancha and gained full access to the site, complete pits development activities.First production from Pampacancha was achieved at the end of April, which is consistent with what we assumed in our annual guidance and recently published mine plan. Slide 5 shows real-time photos of the start of mining activities in the Pampacancha pit, a significant positive milestone for both the company and for the community of Chilloroya.Turning to Slide 6. I'd like to talk about our updated Constancia mine plan, which we released on March 29. This update reflects an increase in copper and gold production from 2022 to 2025 as the higher grades from the Pampacancha deposit into the mine plan. It incorporates higher grade reserves from the Constancia in North pit extension, which contributed to an increase in reserves of 33 million tonnes at a grade of 0.48% copper and 0.115 grams per tonne of gold, and extends the higher grade profile to 2028. This resulted in an increase of approximately 11% in contained copper and 12% contained gold over the prior year's reserves.With the incorporation of Pampacancha and Constancia North, annual production at Constancia is expected to average approximately 102,000 tonnes of copper and 58,000 ounces of gold over the next 8 years, an increase of 40% and 367% respectively from 2020 levels. Constancia maintains its low-cost profile with average copper cash cost of $1.18 and sustaining cash cost of $1.71 per pound over the next 8 years.Moving to the next slide on Manitoba. Production during the quarter included 28,000 tonnes of zinc, 6,700 tonnes of copper, 31,000 ounces of gold, and 291,000 ounces of silver. Production results for all metals were higher than the previous quarter, primarily due to higher head grades and recoveries. Ore mined at our Manitoba operations during the first quarter was higher than the fourth quarter due to full production levels at the 777 mine after the shaft repairs were completed in the fourth quarter. Copper and gold grades at 777 were higher than the fourth quarter as higher-grade remnant stopes were mined as 777 near the end of its mine life. The Lalor mine achieved the increased targeted throughput rate of 4,650 tonnes per day during the quarter.Developments and underground construction activities continue in the lower part of the Lalor mine in order to position us well for consistent gold and copper-gold production upon start-up of the New Britannia mill in the third quarter. We have approximately 26,000 tonnes of gold ore stockpiled up from 12,000 tonnes at the end of the fourth quarter and this is expected to continue to grow during the second quarter. The incremental mining activity associated with growing the gold ore stockpiles has contributed to elevated unit operating costs during the first quarter.We continue to see strong performance from the Stall mill. Ore processed during the first quarter was only 3% lower than the record levels achieved during the fourth quarter despite the continued stockpiling of Lalor gold ahead of the New Britannia mill. Ore processed at the Flin Flon concentrator increased compared to the previous quarter as a result of a full quarter of 777 production but were not as high as prior periods due to less of the Lalor ore being diverted to Flin Flon in order to grow the gold ore stockpiles for the New Britannia mill. Recoveries of copper, gold, and silver were higher than the previous quarter due to higher grades.Unit operating cost increased by 8% compared to the fourth quarter but remained within the annual guidance range. The increase was primarily due to lower capitalized development at both Lalor and 777 as well as higher mining activity at Lalor to grow the gold stockpile as I mentioned. Manitoba's cash cost was negative $1.04 higher than the prior quarter primarily due to higher mining and G&A costs and lower by-product credits offset by a higher copper production. Sustaining cash cost was $1.62 which was higher than the previous quarter due to the same factors affecting cash costs.In early April, production at the Stall mill was suspended for 4 days as a proportion due to COVID-related absenteeism. The Lalor mine was not affected, we were able to utilize spare capacity at the Flin Flon concentrator during this period, and therefore, we do not anticipate any material impact to second quarter production as a result.The New Britannia refurbishment project continues to track ahead of the original schedule and is nearing completion with approximately 82% of the project completed as of the end of April. Commissioning of the gold plant is expected in mid-2021 with first gold production expected early in the third quarter. The new copper flotation facility is on track for commissioning and ramp-up in the fourth quarter of 2021. Operational readiness activities are progressing as planned with underground development of Lalor's gold-rich lenses well advanced in preparation for the startup of New Britannia. We continue to see some COVID-related cost pressures on the project capital estimates at New Britannia, which we will continue to manage.On March 29, we also announced many significant advancements as part of the third phase of our Snow Lake gold strategy. The third phase focuses on expansion and further optimization of operations and several of these opportunities were incorporated into an updated mine plan, which is summarized on Slide 9. This enhanced mine plan contemplates an increase in annual gold production from approximately 150,000 ounces to over 180,000 ounces during the first 6 years of New Britannia's operation. The average gold cash cost and sustaining cash costs are expected to be $412 and $788 per ounce respectively over the first 6 years.Mine plan enhancements include optimized recoveries and throughput at Stall, the conversion of additional resources to reserves at Lalor, the plans to expand Lalor to 5,300 tonnes per day by 2023, and the mining of zinc reserves from the 1901 deposit starting in 2026. These mine plan enhancements optimize the processing capacity in Snow Lake in a manner that maximizes the net present value of the operations. As a result of these initiatives, the production of gold, copper, and silver are expected to increase by 18%, 35%, and 27% respectively from 2022 to 2027 compared to the previous mine plan.Slide 10 shows our consolidated copper and gold production profile incorporating the 2 updated mine plans for our flagship operations. These graphs demonstrate that our growth strategy has been successful in significantly increasing near-term copper and gold production. Through our well-thought-out investments in Pampacancha and the New Britannia mill refurbishment, we expect to begin reaping the benefits of these decisions this year and more fully in 2022 and beyond.Our prudent management of capital is expected to begin paying off this year not only in terms of a growing production and cash flow profile but also in being a copper-focused company with a diversified organic growth pipeline. We believe we have 3 of the best undeveloped copper deposits in our portfolio that provide the potential to further grow our medium to long-term production profile as summarized on Slide 11.Rosemont is one of our more advanced projects with attractive returns and a 19-year mine life based on a recent feasibility study. Once in production, Rosemont is slated to be the third-largest copper mine in the United States. Though we have run into a delay with an unprecedented court ruling, we are appealing this ruling alongside the United States government and we continue to explore our wholly-owned private land in the district adjacent to Rosemont.In March of this year, we announced our Copper World discovery where our 2020 initial drill program intersected high-grade copper sulphide and oxide mineralization on our private land at depths much shallower than Rosemont's. In the photo on this slide, you can see the green oxidized copper on the side of the mountain at Copper World. We commenced a larger 2021 drill program to test the limits of these deposits and the potential for a viable open-pit operation at Copper World. We've recently increased the 2021 budget by approximately $24 million, which includes $14 million for additional exploration drilling and $10 million for engineering studies. Depending on the exploration program results, we expect to complete an initial inferred resource estimate before the end of the year and the PEA in the first half of 2022.And in April, we published our initial PEA for Mason, which contemplates a 27-year mine life and production levels that could more than double our production profile. We acquired this project for $50 million and it is 100% owned by Hudbay. At a copper price of $3.10, the after-tax NPV using a 10% discount rate is approximately $520 million and the IRR is approximately 14%. The valuation metrics are highly sensitive to the copper price and at a price of $3.25, the NPV increases to 3 quarters of $1 billion, and the IRR increases to over 15%. Mason has a large measured and indicated resource base at 2.2 billion tonnes and has the potential to host high-grade satellite deposits on our adjacent land claims similar to Copper World.Turning to Slide 12. We also have several exploration initiatives in both of our Peru and Snow Lake operations. In Peru, the Constancia North discovery enhanced the mineral resource estimates through an improvement in the head grade at Constancia, measured and indicated copper grades increased to 0.22% from 0.19% and inferred copper grades increased to 0.3% from 0.18%.The significant portion of the Constancia North resource estimates is classified as inferred due to wide drill spacing but there remains the opportunity to upgrade these inferred resources to a higher classification as we complete infill drilling. There also remains further opportunity to extend the Constancia North resource by incorporating steeply dipping high-grade skarn mineralization through a potential underground operation. The mineralization remains open down plunge to the north.In February of 2021, we commenced drilling on the Quehuincha North high-grade skarn target located approximately 10 kilometers from Constancia and drilling continues of 5 holes completed to date. Discussions continue to progress with the community which of Uchucarcco on the Maria Reyna and Caballito property, both of which are located within 10 kilometers of Constancia and we expect to reach an agreement in due course.We also expect to commence drilling activities at the Llaguen property in the coming weeks, Llaguen is a copper porphyry target located in northern Peru near the city of Trujillo and in close proximity to existing infrastructure. Exploration efforts at the Lalor mine in 2020 continued to be successful with the definition of an additional 1.8 million tonnes of mineral resources increasing total inferred at Lalor to 6.2 million tonnes. The inferred resources have the potential to extend the Lalor mine life beyond the current estimate of 10 years and maintain the 5,300 tonnes per day production level beyond 2027.Preliminary results from Manitoba's 2021 winter drilling program in the Chisel Basin in Snow Lake indicate that a potential copper-gold feeder zone to the 1901 deposit exists with 1 hole intersecting 11.6 meters at 2.7% copper and 3.4 grams per tonne of gold, which is similar to the known geology at the Lalor deposit. The review is underway to determine next steps for exploration at 1901 and whether it will be best conducted from surface or from underground once development of the deposit has commenced and suitable drill platforms can be established. We also continue to test other targets that exist within the Chisel Basin.I'll close on Slide 13 with a recap of our 2021 catalysts, many of which we've touched on throughout the presentation. In Peru, we expect to receive further results from our Quehuincha North drilling program in the coming months, we will begin drilling the Llaguen property in the second quarter, we expect to be advancing exploration permitting process at the other regional Constancia properties this year once we reach a community exploration agreement, and we intend to complete a trade-off study for the Constancia North underground operation before the end of the year.In the medium term, we expect to advance our work on examining ore sorting and copper recovery improvements at Constancia. In Manitoba, we expect to complete commissioning of the New Britannia gold plant in the coming months and to achieve the first gold core early in the third quarter. We have started the work in preparation for the ramp-up to 5,300 tonnes per day at Lalor and the Stall mill recovery improvement program. We also continue this year's exploration program in the Chisel Basin.In the medium term, we will continue to look at future opportunities for expecting gold from the tails that Stall, expanding the New Britannia mill beyond 1,500 tonnes per day, and delineating new reserves and resources in the prospective Snow Lake camp. In Arizona, we look forward to releasing further exploration drilling results to potentially extend the mineralization at Copper World, publish an initial resource estimate before the end of the year, and work towards a PEA to be released in the first half of 2022.We also expect to receive a decision from the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals on Rosemont in the second half of the year. And at Mason, we will continue to compile and interpret historical data on our land package and complete geophysics in preparation for our future drilling program. We are a disciplined, growth-focused company and as we look to deliver the next stage of growth at Hudbay, our priorities over the medium term will be to unlock value at Rosemont, drill the Copper World discovery, chase the Constancia regional exploration targets, add reserves to the Snow Lake mine plan, advance Mason and exploration pipeline projects, and optimize value from Snow Lake gold while remaining vigilant for other opportunities that match our strategic criteria and never losing focus of prudently managing our balance sheet.And with that we now happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Orest Wowkodaw of Scotiabank.
Could we please get a bit more color on sort of what happened at Constancia in the first quarter? I realize there was a maintenance shutdown, but the throughput there is still seemed really low unless the maintenance shutdown was over 2 weeks, I'm not really sure how long it was? And just along those lines, are there any other anticipated maintenance shutdowns later this year?
Orest, thanks for the question. To start out your question. Yes, the maintenance shutdown was longer than planned because we deferred it from the last quarter of last year. So the duration of it certainly would have impacted the results for the quarter but, Cashel -- why don't I ask Cashel to provide a little bit more color on it.
Orest, certainly the maintenance shutdown was a little bit longer than anticipated by the added work from the quarter. Also, it was long due to some of the logistical reasons, granite, a new tool, weather is imminent throughout and not to mention the complications with segregating workforces, contractors, et cetera on site. And so some of the work took longer than what it would be under normal circumstances and obviously impacted the days available for throughput. The other was is, in the beginning, the sequencing of the mine, we're mining a little bit harder ores in the lower part of Constancia, and so throughputs were a little bit down. But fortunately, now we're mining in Pampacancha and that will offset a lot of that hardness that'll be going through and we expect now to be at normal sort of throughput levels going forward with respect, I believe there is also in Q4 another scheduled maintenance shutdown later in the year.
In order to just -- as your question was duration. It was approximately 2 weeks, the shutdown.
Yes.
And just shifting gears, when we think about your medium-term growth, whether it be Rosemont or Copper World, is it fair to say that the earliest we could see or we should anticipate investment from a development perspective is probably 2024 or do you see a scenario that you could see early works begin before that?
Orest, I think your suggestion is certainly reasonable. What I would say with respect to Rosemont is that a number of potential outcomes are possible but if we succeed, we would be in a position to be exactly where we were back in July of 2019, which could mean that we could effectively be moving into new construction pretty quickly. Now remember that back in 20 -- in 2019, the thing that we really had to -- we're focusing on, we're obtaining a partner for Rosemont, I think joint venture partner, as well as we would likely need to just take another look at the estimate in order to re-validated it in the context for some improvement as we made in the interim as well as current pricing. So I think it would be fair to say that if we received a positive court decision this year at Rosemont, we could be in the field as early as 2023, and I would say 2024 is likely a conservative estimate.
Our next question comes from Jackie Przybylowski with BMO Capital Markets.
Pete, I guess I'll just start by following up on Orest's question. When you're talking about doing a PEA at Copper World next year, I think you said, how does that factor in with Rosemont, are you going to contemplate that PEA as a stand-alone or is that going to be a complex between the 2 operations?
Jackie, great question. The PEA that we are conducting is for Copper World as a standalone project. There certainly is the potential for it to be combined with a version of Rosemont but we are approaching it as a standalone project right now.
Okay. And so a positive decision on Rosemont would result in you going forward with the construction of Rosemont and then Copper World would sequence in sort of after that, is that the right way to think about it?
Yes, I think it -- we really needed to complete the work on the PEA for Copper World to better understand how sequencing might occur. So I think what you're saying is a fair assumption but certainly is not certain at this point.
All right. Okay. That's helpful. And then shifting over to Peru. I know you've probably been asked this a million times, but given that we're getting closer to the run-off election in Peru, can you talk about how it's affecting Hudbay if at all at this point? Does the increased kind of attention to different political views, does that change the interactions that you're having with the community and the progress you're making on getting access to the exploration properties that you have out there?
Jackie, in a nutshell I think, the team -- Javier and his team in Peru are doing an extraordinary job of staying out of politics. And as [indiscernible] once I can support, met a contact with our communities in Chumbivilcas in support of those communities. With respect to the election, I really do think that it's too early to predict the direction that the run-off will take. You'll recall that the polls in the first part of the elections didn't even include Mr. Castillo in the top 5 candidates. So again, as I've said before if I view Peru in the context of my personal experience over the past couple of decades, almost every election is characterized by extremes. 10 years ago, the same thing happened with Ollanta Humala who was the left-wing candidate and he was considered to be Armageddon for the mining industry in Peru. But we saw that after his election, he moved to the center and mining continue to be a key driver of the nation's economy and I see no difference now. If Mr. Castillo is already beginning to soften his tone, if he is elected and this is a big if, Hudbay will work with his administration constructively as we always do and we will defend and advance the interests of our investors and our stakeholders. But I do believe sort of going back to the first part of my answer to you is that the best way to do this is to remain deeply focused on our communities in Chumbivilcas and on our common purpose and the team is totally focused on that.
And the ask from the communities hasn't changed materially with this sort of background noise?
No, in fact, we are very, very solidly engaged with the community and we have a number of agreements with the communities.
Our next question comes from Matthew Field (sic) [ Matthew Fields ] of Bank of America.
Thanks for providing the color on the shipments that sort of got pushed into 2Q. Is -- have you been able to sort of think about if that $39 million had been in revenue, kind of what the EBITDA throughput would have been in the first quarter?
Thanks for the question, Matt. Why don't I ask Steve Douglas to respond.
It's not a number we really disclose, but suffice to say, I will get back to you on the number as to what the calculation would be.
Okay. And then just thinking about the rest of the year, obviously global freight, global shipping is challenged right now for a number of reasons. Is there any reason to believe that this is just a onetime issue and 2Q will try to have outsized results because there'll be nothing pushed into 3Q or it's just kind of a thing that you're going to be monitoring for the rest of the year to make sure kind of shipments go out on time and sort of everything that you produce can get sold in a reasonable amount of time?
We have no indication that there is -- will be any change. Certainly, we have no indication in the short term of any changes than we expect. But certainly, expect next quarter to go ahead as planned and there is no indication that things will change from that beyond the second quarter.
And I mean I think it's worth noting and Peter pointed out in his conference call notes. We actually got paid for the shipment in accordance with commercial terms. It was just delayed literally a matter of few days. So I mean these logistical hiccups come and go and we definitely aspire to not have them and I think our marketing team does a fantastic job of dealing with a lot of variables. So absolutely I would reiterate what Peter said that we don't anticipate this occurring again, but that's all subject to the vagaries of the areas in which we function.
All right. Fair point and then last one for me. You start delivering gold ounces under the prepay agreement next year. Given the move significantly in prices on gold but more so on copper since you signed the gold prepay. Is there any thought to kind of taking advantage of the good metal prices to kind of maybe mitigate the impact of those ounces kind of going away on your cash flow from financing in 2022?
Matt, I think that we concluded the agreement at a decent price, which is actually not that far off today's price. So right now, we are not really giving consideration to alternatives with respect to how we make those payments or how we deliver those ounces.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Lawson Winder of Bank of America.
Just a question on Rosemont. In the event that the court actually rules against Rosemont, I'd like to kind of understand what your thinking is in terms of how to proceed. So, one, are you in a position where you could fairly immediately move ahead with some sort of plan that avoids federal lands, and then how long would it be before you could submit for those state approvals? And then secondly, would your intention be to appeal or just leave it at that?
Lawson, look I think that's an insightful question. Our retained -- if we were to lose the case, we would most certainly seek leave to appeal. And the reason why I say that is because this decision, not only does -- it not only affects Hudbay and Rosemont, but it affects the entire industry in the western United States and possibly the entire United States. And we have previously said that there are some 25 or so projects and billions of tonnes of copper that are potentially impacted by this. So it's something that affects the entire industry and we think that appeal and our appeal certainly would be in order and would be certainly appealed by the industry and other industry associations. Now I remain pretty confident that -- or optimistic that the appeal will go away but that's beside the point. Now if -- so if we do appeal, of course, we would look at alternatives for going into production. I think it's fair to say that the Copper World discovery, certainly provides us with an alternative avenue although a slower avenue. But we continue to look at alternatives with respect to how we might move forward if we in fact do lose the appeal.
Okay. That's great. And then maybe if I could just ask on the collective bargaining agreements. It seems like this is a bit delayed. I'm just curious to what you would attribute the delay in getting those contracts finalized? And then I think it would be really helpful to get some color on what proportion of each site is you need to unionize and what job functions are primarily represented by those union members?
Lawson, I would say that in the case of Manitoba, it's a more complex environment given the pending closure of 777, but we continue to advance the collective bargaining process there with our unions to work towards concluding an agreement that works for everybody. Ultimately we and they are focused on the fair settlement and we expect to achieve that. Now, to your question of the proportion of our personnel who unionized. In Manitoba, the entire workforce is unionized and in Peru, approximately 1/3 of the workforce is unionized.
And those in Peru, are they concentrated in one particular function or is spread around?
They're spread around.
Okay. That's great. And then just one final question. I mean you mentioned -- of course, you reiterated the guidance, you reaffirmed that, and you're confident in meeting that. But I did note that you called out $4.6 million in Q1 of additional costs that I think were unexpected related to COVID. And, yes, my question would be how persistence in each of the consecutive quarters in 2021 could that $4.6 million cost be and if you were to get $4.6 million of additional COVID costs in each of Q2, Q3, and Q4 in 2021, would that put the Constancia guidance at risk at all, I mean, think the high-end is $10.90 million, are there any risk of sort of reaching that level?
Yes, Lawson. Thanks for that. So we had initially guided towards some $2.5 million of quarterly cost, with respect to COVID, however with the increased precautions that we're taking, we are now saying that the last quarter was $4.6 million instead of the $2.5 million run rate that we're experiencing. We expect the overall COVID-related costs for this year to be of the order of $20 million, $5 million a quarter, but we do not expect those to impact the guidance that we have issued.
This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Candace Brule for any closing remarks.
Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for participating today. If you have any further questions, feel -- please feel free to reach out to our Investor Relations team. This call has now ended and you may disconnect your line.