Granite Real Estate Investment Trust

TSX:GRT.UN

Earnings Call Analysis

Granite REIT Q4 2023 Results and 2024 Forecast

In Q4 2023, Granite REIT experienced a 2.4% FFO per unit increase from Q3 to $1.27, and a 5.8% rise compared to Q4 2022. This was underpinned by strong property NOI growth from new developments and robust leasing activity, particularly in Canada and the U.S., although high interest expenses partly offset these gains. AFFO per unit rose to $1.15, buoyed by lower capital expenditures. Notably, same-property NOI jumped by 4.7% (6.8% with currency effects). Looking ahead, Granite forecasts a 7-10% increase in FFO per unit for 2024, estimating it between $5.30 to $5.45, and expects maintenance and leasing costs of approximately $25 million due to increased leasing activities.

Financial Performance and Outlook

Granite REIT's fourth quarter of 2023 reflected a steadfast performance, with Funds From Operations (FFO) per unit reaching $1.27, marking a 2.4% uptick from the previous quarter and a significant 5.8% leap compared to the same period the previous year. These increases in FFO were underpinned by developments and expansions, strong same-property Net Operating Income (NOI) growth driven by remarkable leasing spreads, and beneficial currency exchange fluctuations, specifically a stronger U.S. dollar. The REIT also achieved an Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) increase, with Q4 per-unit figures hitting $1.15, $0.06 more than Q3 and a $0.10 rise year-over-year. Looking forward, the REIT is guiding for a robust 7% to 10% FFO per unit growth for 2024, proposing ranges of $5.30 to $5.45, while AFFO per unit is expected to grow by 3% to 7%, with forecasted figures between $4.65 to $4.80.

Portfolio Resilience and Cap Rates

Despite a turbulent market, Granite's investment property portfolio experienced just $33 million in fair value losses, while overall weighted average capitalization (cap) rates saw a modest increase of 10 basis points from Q3 2023 and 37 basis points year over year to 5.24%. Although there has been nearly $900 million in value losses recognized since the first quarter of 2022 due to cap rate and discount rate adjustments, the REIT does not foresee substantial further declines in asset values. However, the executive team is keeping a watchful eye on the market for any distressed sales opportunities that could emerge as other owners and developers grapple with debt pressures.

Strategic Flexibility in Capital Management

Granite REIT's executives underscored a pragmatic approach to capital management during the call. The REIT maintains a relatively conservative leverage position, with a net leverage of 33% and net debt to EBITDA ratio standing at 7.3 times, flat compared to previous quarters but an improvement over the prior year. Liquidity remains solid at approximately $1.1 billion. The leadership signaled a readiness to cautiously explore opportunities to increase leverage should compelling investment prospects arise, though specific leverage targets were not disclosed. This indicates the REIT's agility in responding to market conditions while maintaining financial prudence.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to the Granite REIT's Fourth Quarter and Year-end Results for 2023 Conference Call. Speaking to you on this call this morning is Kevan Gorrie, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Teresa Neto, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Teresa Neto to go over certain advisories.

[Teresa Neto, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind you that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements, and forward-looking information including, but not limited to, expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures, and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast or projection. These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations, and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in Granite's material filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time, including the Risk Factors section of its annual information form for 2023 filed on February 28, 2024. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. The REIT reviews its key assumptions regularly and may change its outlook on an ongoing basis if necessary. Granite undertakes no intention or obligation to update or revise its key assumptions, any of forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, the remarks this morning may include financial terms and measures that do not have a standardized meaning under International Financial Reporting Standards. Please refer to the condensed combined audited financial results and management discussion and analysis for the 3 -- for the year ended December 31, 2023, for Granite Real Estate Investment Trust and Granite REIT Inc., and other materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from time to time for additional relevant information. Now, I'll start with the financial highlights, as usual, and Kevan will follow with his operational update. Granite posted Q4 2023 results ahead of Q3 and in line with expectations, supported by strong NOI growth, lower current tax expense, and positive impact from foreign exchange, primarily as a result of the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, partially offset by higher interest costs. FFO per unit in Q4 was $1.27, representing a $0.03 or 2.4% increase over Q3, and a 5.8% increase relative to the same quarter in the prior year. The growth in NOI derived from developments and expansions that came online since the fourth quarter of '22, and strong same-property NOI growth enhanced by leasing spreads in excess of 100% in Canada, double digits in the U.S., and inflationary increases in Europe. Partially offset by the disposition of two properties during the first and third quarters of '23 and some new vacancies in North America. NOI growth was enhanced by foreign exchange as the U.S. dollar was 1.6% stronger in comparison to Q3, while the Euro was flat. In comparison to the prior year, the Euro was 6% stronger and the U.S. dollar was flat, resulting in a $0.02 positive impact to FFO per unit. In Q4 '23, we recognized a net favorable $1.8 million reversal of tax reserves related to a prior year, which resulted in a current tax expense being $2 million lower as compared to Q3, and $1.4 million lower relative to the prior year. Negatively impacting Q4 '23 relative to Q3 and the prior year quarter is higher interest cost, net of interest income of $0.9 million and $0.7 million, respectively, which is primarily related to the full quarter effect of interest costs on our EUR 70 million term loan that closed in early September. And higher interest rate on the $400 million 2029 debenture post the repayment of our '23 debenture on November 30. Granite's AFFO per unit on a per unit basis in Q4 was $1.15, which is $0.06 higher relative to Q3, and $0.10 higher relative to the same quarter last year, with the variance is mostly tied to FFO growth and lower capital expenditures, leasing costs, and tenant allowances incurred due to the timing of leasing turnover and seasonality. AFFO related capital expenditures, leasing costs and tenant allowances incurred in the quarter totaled $6 million with a decrease of $0.7 million and $1.4 million over Q3, and the prior year, respectively. For 2023, total AFFO related capital expenditures, leasing costs and tenant allowances incurred were $18.3 million, which is below prior estimates provided due to timing as certain leasing activity did not occur as forecasted. For 2024, we expect maintenance CapEx, leasing costs and tenant allowances to come in at approximately $25 million, with the increase relative to the past couple of years being a direct result of anticipated leasing activity for the remaining '24 and '25 maturities, as well as the leasing up of existing vacancies. Same-property NOI for Q4 '23 was strong relative to the same quarter last year, increasing 4.7% on a constant currency basis and up 6.8% when foreign currency effects are included. Same-property NOI growth was driven primarily by higher than previous year's CPI adjustments, positive leasing spreads, contractual rent increases across all of Granite's regions. Lease renewals in the U.S., Canada and Netherlands. The lease-up of a prior vacancy in Novi, Michigan, and includes the impact of completed expansion in Indiana, and completed developments in Fort Worth, Texas, and Augsburg, Germany, which had free rent periods in the prior year. Partially offset by vacancy at certain properties in the U.S. and Canada. G&A for the quarter was $9.4 million, which was $0.8 million higher than the same quarter last year, and $1 million higher than Q3. The main variance relative to the prior year quarter in Q3 is the change in noncash compensation liabilities, which generated an unfavorable $0.2 million fair value swing relative to the same quarter last year, and an unfavorable $1.4 million fair value swing relative to Q3. These fair value adjustments do not impact FFO or AFFO metrics. Stripping out the fair value adjustments. As mentioned earlier, G&A expenses that impact FFO and AFFO were approximately $0.1 million lower than Q3, which is mostly related to timing of professional fees and travel expenses. For 2024, we continue to expect G&A expenses of approximately $9.5 million per quarter or roughly 7% to 7.5% of revenues, excluding any amounts for fair value adjustments on noncash compensation liabilities. On income tax, Q4 current income tax was $0.1 million, which is $1.4 million in the prior year, and $2 million lower than Q3. As mentioned earlier, in Q4 '23, we recognized the reversal of tax provisions relating to positions taken on taxation years, which have gone statute barred in our European region of $1.8 million, in contrast to similar favorable adjustments last year of just $0.7 million. For 2024, we are expecting current income taxes to increase slightly to approximately $2.4 million per quarter, and that's as a result of higher revenues and the burn-off of amortization in Austria, related to the breast lease renewal, which commences February 1, 2024, increasing our taxable income in that region. Interest expense was higher in Q4 relative to Q3 by $4.1 million, while interest income also increased by $3.2 million as compared to Q3. As mentioned previously on the Q3 call, on October 12, Granite completed its $400 million green bond offering known as the 2029 debentures, and concurrently entered into a cross-currency interest rate swap to exchange the Canadian dollar-denominated principal and interest payments for euro-denominated payments, resulting in an effective interest rate of approximately 4.93% for the 5.5-year term of the '29 debentures. The net proceeds from the offering were used to repay Granite's 2023 debentures with the same principal amount outstanding of $400 million upon its maturity on November 30. For the period from October 12 to November 30, Granite earned interest on its net proceeds from the '29 debentures at approximately 5.4%. Therefore, relative to Q3, net interest cost increased by $0.9 million. The increase is a result of the full quarter impact, as mentioned earlier, the EUR 70 million 2026 term loan, which has an effective rate of 4.33%, and the 1-month impact of the repayment of the '23 debentures, which had an effective rate of 2.43% in comparison to the higher effective rate on our '29 debentures of 4.93%. The Granite's weighted average cost of debt is approximately 2.59% for '24, given that we have no debt maturing until very late December, our interest expense run rate is estimated to drop to approximately $21 million per quarter, which will be offset by some interest income of approximately $0.5 million to $1 million per quarter. Now, looking out to '24 estimates, Granite is forecasting FFO per unit within the range of $5.30 to $5.45, representing approximately a 7% to 10% increase over 2023. For AFFO per unit, we are forecasting a range of $4.65 to $4.80, representing an increase of 3% to 7%. The high and low ranges are driven by foreign currency rates, where for the high-end of the range, we are assuming foreign exchange rates of Canada to 1.48 and to USD of $1.38. On the low-end of the range, we are assuming exchange rates on the Canadian dollar to euro and Canadian dollar to USD of 1.43 and 1.32, respectively. We continue to estimate that $0.01 movement in the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar impacts FFO and AFFO per unit approximately by $0.02 and a $0.01 movement in the Canadian dollar relative to euro results in a $0.01 annual impact to FFO and AFFO per unit. Granite will provide updates to guidance each quarter as warranted based on leasing activity and other operational events executed to date. The Trust balance sheet comprising of total assets of $9.1 billion at the end of the quarter was negatively impacted by $33 million in fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio in the fourth quarter, and was further reduced by $73 million of translation losses on Granite's foreign-based investment properties.Primarily due to the 2.5% decrease in the spot USD exchange rate, partially offset by a 1.9% increase in the spot euro exchange rate relative to Q3. The fair value losses on Granite's investment property portfolio were attributable to the expansion in the discounted terminal capitalization rates across selective branded markets, largely due to market conditions, partially offset by fair market rent increases primarily in selected U.S. and European markets. The Trust's overall weighted average cap rate of 5.24% on in-place NOI increased 10 basis points from the end of Q3, and has increased 37 basis points since the same quarter last year. Our net leverage at the end of the year was 33%, and net debt to EBITDA was 7.3% -- 7.3x, which is flat relative to Q3 and lower than Q4 2022, as a result of same-property NOI growth, as previously mentioned, and the completion and stabilization of the majority of Granite's development properties. Granite continues to expect its net debt-to-EBITDA to improve in 2024 as the EBITDA from completed developments come online throughout the year. Our current liquidity is approximately $1.1 billion, representing cash on hand of approximately $120 million, and the undrawn line of $997 million. As of today, we have no borrowings outstanding under the credit facility, and there are $2.9 million in letters of credit outstanding. And lastly, on other financing activities for the 3 months in the fourth quarter, Granite repurchased approximately 393,000 stapled units under its NCIB, at an average price of $6.73 for a total proceeds of $27 million. I'll now turn it over the call to Kevan.

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Thanks, Teresa. Certainly, an in-line quarter as NOI continued to increase despite a slight decline in occupancy from the previous quarter. Further, as mentioned, FFO for 2023 was in line with guidance of $4.90 to $5.05, which was provided in March of last year. And I think it is worth noting at the outset that we generated double-digit growth in FFO per unit for the second consecutive year. I'll begin with a brief update on our current development pipeline. As stated in the MD&A, the 19-year lease on our 409,000 square foot build-to-suit project for Barry Callebaut, commenced on schedule in mid-January, which I think is quite an accomplishment by the team for such a complex development project. Additionally, we have executed a new 10-year 3,000 square foot lease on our 50,000 square foot expansion in Ajax, which commences in June of this year. And finally, for development, we have received approvals and executed a lease amending agreement with the tenant for a 52,000 square foot expansion on our property and work the Netherlands. The expansion is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter at a cost of approximately CAD 6 million, and generated a return of roughly 8.5% on cost. As a reminder, all projects are expected to achieve certification in accordance with our published Green Bond framework. In addition to the projects just discussed, we have roughly 160 acres of land remaining for development in Branford, Houston and Columbus, which could accommodate up to 2.4 million square feet of space once constructed. As outlined in our press release and MD&A, the team achieved an average increase in rental rate of 24% on renewals for roughly 3.8 million square feet of leases that expired in the quarter. With respect to our 2024 maturities, we have now renewed $7.8 million, or roughly 79% of our 9.8 million square feet of maturities at an average increase in rental rate of 15%, with the increase ironically muted somewhat by the 10% increase associated with the gross renewals. As Teresa mentioned, same-property NOI increased by 4.7% in the quarter on a constant currency basis, lower than in Q3, but in line with expectations. Same-prop NOI was positive across all our geographies on a constant currency basis, led by the Netherlands and Canada at 9.8% and 7.7%, respectively. And despite higher vacancy, our U.S. portfolio posted same-property NOI of just under 4%. Overall, same-property NOI growth for the quarter -- for the year, sorry, came in at the lower end of our initial guidance of 6% to 7%. As you can see, we project same-property NOI growth within the range of 7% to 8% on a constant currency basis for 2024, and we expect that growth to continue to be strong through 2025, based on today's expected leasing spreads over that period. As you can see from our disclosure, we adjusted cap rates and discount rates nominally in the quarter based on relevant transactional data. Excluding FX movement, we have now recognized roughly $175 million in fair value losses on our investment properties in 2023, and just under $900 million in total since Q1 of 2022 as a result of adjustments at capitalization and discount rates, mitigated partially by increases in market rents and development stabilizations within our portfolio. Based on recent transactional data and a move lower in overnight rates across our jurisdictions from the fourth quarter, at this time, we do not anticipate significant further declines in asset values moving forward. However, we also believe that the prospects for distressed sales is likely to rise over the coming quarters as many owners and developers struggle to cope with debt loads and are unable to capitalize -- recapitalize their investments. And while that increase in activity may provide Granite with compelling investment opportunities, we recognize that a significant number of such sales could concurrently place downward pressure on pricing in the short-term. As a general market update, leasing activity continued to slow in the fourth quarter as higher interest rates and economic uncertainty continue to impact tenant activity broadly across the sector. On a comparative basis, our markets once again represented 8 of the top 9 markets in the U.S. for net absorption, totaling 22 million square feet for the quarter and over 135 million square feet for the year, led by Dallas, Chicago and Houston. As for rates, our market saw a relatively positive year-over-year growth from 1% in Columbus to 16% in Dallas, 19% in Indianapolis and Louisville, 26% in Houston, and over 40% in the I-78/81 corridor. GTA, Netherlands, and Germany posted growth rates of 6.3% and 12%, respectively, over 2022. As for Q1, we are definitely seeing an increase in traffic and leasing activity across our markets, versus levels that we saw in the fourth quarter. I cannot discuss specific deals on the call, but the team is currently negotiating leases or in advanced discussions of approximately 1.5 million square feet of renewals and new leases, which I think bodes well for leasing momentum into the second quarter. At this point, we expect to renew between 85% to 90% of our lease expiries overall in 2024, a very strong number in my opinion. As mentioned in the press release, we have renewed our base shelf prospectus, which expired in November of last year on effectively the same terms as before. As a telegraph on our Q3 call, this renewal is simply a formality and is being executed in normal course to facilitate any potential actions we may contemplate over the next 25 months. Also, as Teresa mentioned, we opportunistically utilize available cash on hand to purchase roughly 400,000 units at an average price of $68.73. As you know, unit buybacks are not our first choice for capital allocation, but we will not hesitate to capitalize when the unit price is out far below now. In closing, our results were in line with expectations. NOI and cash NOI increased each quarter in 2023, and our liquidity position remains very strong at roughly $1.1 billion in cash and available credit. As I have stated on previous calls, we utilized the power of our balance sheet and consciously made a sizable investment in development beginning in 2021, with a goal to deliver when combined with attractive same-property NOI growth and retained earnings, strong cash flow growth for multiple years. Since the beginning of 2022, we have generated FFO growth of over 26%. And per our guidance, we expect to deliver further FFO growth of 7% to 10% in 2024, depending on applicable exchange rates. All of this while continually improving the quality of our portfolio. So addressing our current availabilities and remaining 2024 maturities and preserving capital for future strategic opportunities remains our highest priority, and we are very well-positioned to deliver NOI, FFO and AFFO growth once again in 2024. On that, I will now open up the floor to questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. One moment please for the first question. Our first question comes from Himanshu Gupta with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

Thank you, and good morning. So just on the leasing activity in the quarter, it looks like pretty active there. So around 2 million square feet of leasing done in the U.S. Maybe can you elaborate on that, like which markets and what those end in line with your expectations?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I don't want to get into specifics, but are you referring to the $1.5 million I just mentioned.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

No, Kevan. I'm talking about the one which you achieved in Q4, 1.9 million square feet leasing done in the U.S. in Q4. So anything on that?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I wouldn't get into specifics on that, but I would certainly make the comment that the leasing spreads -- the rental rates that we achieved were very much in line with expectations or above expectations.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

Okay. Fair enough. And then if I look at -- there was a vacancy in Q4, I think around 400,000 square feet. Maybe can you provide some color there, like which market? And I mean, what is the assumption of a lease up on that property?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

There were 2, I think. It was one in Memphis, close to 300,000 square feet, and 1 in Houston, which was, I think, roughly 150,000 feet.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

Okay. Okay. Fair enough. And then maybe the next question is, if I look at your U.S. occupancy, it's like 92%. And if I look at the U.S. market, general market, they can see in your key markets, Indianapolis, Columbus. Market vacancy is also around 8%. So you're pretty much in line there. So do you think overall market occupancy needs to get better before you show occupancy gains on your U.S. occupancy?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

No, I don't. And a couple of things I would point out is, number one, we're dealing with very modern products and very well located within our respective markets. So, I do think it will outperform the market. We have to date anyways on that. And the second one I would point out is, it is a great example. I think the overall vacancy in Indianapolis is in the 8%. But when you break it down, we're in the Southwest, as you know, right by the airport. All points is literally across the street from Ron Regan International Airport. The vacancy rate in the Southwest submarket is 4.3%. Most of the vacancy in Indianapolis is in the East and the Southeast. So if you're going East to greenfield, the vacancy rate is close to 20%. If you're in the Southeast, you're talking about Shelby fill. I think you're 17% to 18%. So there's clear differentiation depending on where you are within the market. Louisville, for example, we're in Bullet County right off the highway. So that's a very well-located asset. So I wouldn't -- I don't think it would be fair or reasonable to compare to the overall vacancy in the markets. We certainly expect to outperform the market. So I don't think we need to see a sort of general major reduction in vacancy within our markets for us to have success leasing this year.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

That's a good point. Clearly, we have to look at the submarket level. And maybe the last question is on your FFO guidance, which obviously looks pretty strong here. Teresa, what are you expecting in terms of lease-up of the current vacancies? Is it mostly Q2 or in Q3?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Most of you would be in the latter half of the year, if that helps.

[Himanshu Gupta, analyst]

Okay. No, I think that helps. I'll turn it back. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Pammi Bir with RBC Capital Markets.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Thanks. Good morning. Just maybe drilling down a little bit further on the lease-up of some of the U.S. assets. What's your sense of the timing for getting veterans drives and some of the Nashville sites leased up over the course of the year?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I would say in terms of activity in our markets, Nashville and Houston have been very active. Indianapolis would be second. I think that there's strong prospects out there, but probably pretty early days for us, I would say. And then Memphis and Louisville would be behind that. So, what we're assuming is that all of the current availabilities will be dealt with this year or the vast majority of them will be dealt with this year, and in the second half of the year.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Okay. And then coming back to the 7% to 8% same-property NOI growth, how do you see that sort of breaking down regionally? And just, I guess, just given your comments on getting most of, I guess, the U.S. vacancy done before year-end or in the second half. Does it skew -- does that 7% to 8% skew more towards the U.S.? Or I'm just curious if you can give us some thoughts on the regional outlook?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I think it would be skewed more towards the U.S. The one thing that's interesting is it's not impacted significantly by developments. So it would be lease-up of existing space, and also the sort of renewal increases we're expecting to achieve or have achieved on the rollover in the U.S. So the U.S. definitely contributes a significant amount of that 7% to 8%.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Okay. And just to clarify, are the Indianapolis, the acquisition that you completed early last year, are you including those in your 7% to 8% or?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

We would, but we always -- we were always clear about how much is attributable to new development. So they would become same-property NOI at some point this year, later on this year. But we would be clear. We will be clear about overall same-property NOI and same-property NOI excluding development.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Right. And I think that speaks to your quarterly average same-property NOI that you --

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Absolutely. And Just to say though, for 2024, we are not expecting development. The new developments, the stabilization of new developments to contribute significantly to that 7% to 8%. It's a very small amount.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Okay. Lastly, just for me. Kevan, you mentioned you expect to see some distressed opportunities surface. It sounds like the acquisitions aren't really factored into your guidance outlook. So, I'm just curious if you can expand on that, what you're seeing out there? Any specific markets that would be of interest for assets?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Well, I don't want to talk about markets, but we are monitoring the markets very closely, and there are a few which are pretty laser-focused on right now. There are a couple in North America, including the GTA obviously, and in Europe. But just looking at some deals, we have seen transactions involving deals that were done a year ago, less than a year ago. And so, we are seeing signs of financial distress among owners. We are seeing it. Now, pricing seems to be holding up. But I do anticipate that, that financial distress not so much a contagion, but certainly, I think there will be a number of examples like that over the coming 6 to 12 months.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

And would you be prepared to push leverage a bit, if stuff does come up that is pretty compelling?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

If it's compelling, I don't know how much we'd be willing to push leverage. I mean, we have a completely unused $1 billion line of credit. But if we had -- and Teresa sitting across me nodding your head. But we would have to have confidence and comfort that interest rates are moving in the right direction as well. So it has to be a combination of both of those things, I think. It has to be a compelling opportunity for us in the right market, and we have to have comfort on the direction trajectory of interest rates.

[Pammi Bir, analyst]

Got it. Thanks very much. I will turn it back.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mike Markidis with BMO Capital Markets.

[Michael Markidis, analyst]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, Granite team. Just good to hear about the increased traffic you're seeing on the leasing. And I think if I heard you correctly, you said that you expect that most of the -- or substantially, all of the existing availabilities are addressed by the end of this year. So just doing some quick math, and if I use your expected retention ratio, should we be thinking about maybe occupancy in the U.S. going from where it's today, 92% to maybe ending the year at 97%? Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I think it would be -- I think that would be a bit high. If you were to say most of the current availabilities will be dealt with this year, but also we would have $1.3 million roughly expected to come back to us this year just through expiries, lease expiries. So we're guiding overall -- I should know it offhand what it would be in the U.S., but we're guiding overall to 96.5% to 97.5% occupancy.

[Michael Markidis, analyst]

Okay. That's great. That's all I have. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Brad Sturges with Raymond James.

[Bradley Sturges, analyst]

Good morning. Just maybe a general comment on the leasing in terms of the commentary around the pickup. Are you seeing incremental activity or interest in bigger boxes at this point?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I would say yes and no. Depending on the market, it does feel like most of the activity we are seeing is in that sort of $250 to $500 range. We have seen a couple of prospects in the $600,000 to $800,000 range. But I think it's a fair point. So far this year, there's been more activity in the sort of mid-day $250,000 to $500,000 range.

[Bradley Sturges, analyst]

And at this point, when you're looking at your vacancies, is still the preference to be focused on single-tenant users or has there been a change in thinking in terms of maybe going to a multi-tenant in certain circumstances?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I don't think I've ever used the word single tenant. It's not our focus. Our focus is modern distribution logistics and e-commerce, whether it's multi-tenant or single tenant is not. Now, depending, saying there are some buildings that are better suited to single tenant use, and most distribution logistics is better suited for single tenant use. So that's really our focus is on that. If the question is, are we willing to look at demising the buildings? Absolutely, if it's the best thing for the building and investing for our returns. Certainly, we would do that. And just to emphasize, all of the buildings we've built, all the buildings we develop are designed to be demised if necessary. And all of the ones, including Indianapolis, both of those buildings in Indianapolis, we were assuming they would be demised and led to multiple tenants. So that was by design. So we're not a single tenant focused. It's really what is the best use of a modern distribution facility. That's what we're focused on.

[Bradley Sturges, analyst]

Yes. Okay. That makes sense. I meant more on the demising aspect rather than the type of user in a general sense, but I appreciate that.

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Yeah. Particularly if we can achieve higher rental rates and higher NERs, we wouldn't hesitate to utilize our capital to do that to achieve that.

[Bradley Sturges, analyst]

Yes. Okay. Last question. How are you thinking about Branford in terms of Phase II at this point? You're getting close to completing Phase I? Would there be an opportunity to start Phase II on SPAC? Or would you wait for pre-leasing or change in sort of the market conditions given the, I guess, a little bit of a slowdown in -- or normalization more specifically in recent months? Just curious to get your thoughts on sort of what timing and sort of thought process on Phase II could look like?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Yes. There are no plans to move ahead with speculative construction at any of our sites. I think we moved all of the land into properties under development, partly because we'll make sure that the land is serviced and ready to go so that we can respond to any build-to-suit opportunities in the short-term. But there are no plans for any speculative development at this time on any of our sites.

[Bradley Sturges, analyst]

Okay. Thanks.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Rothschild with Canaccord Genuity.

[Mark Rothschild, analyst]

Thanks, and good morning. Maybe in regards to the guidance that you guys gave for same-property NOI, and it seems like you're optimistic about having a decent amount of occupancy improvement this year. How much of that -- maybe talk -- I just couldn't get it clear. How much of that is built into the guidance for same-property NOI growth for in 2024?

[Teresa Neto, executive]

Probably can't give you an exact number, but obviously, there is -- in the forecast provided is an assumption on the lease-up of some of the vacant space, the newly developed. And as Kevan has mentioned, and that's very much back half skewed. So it is in there for sure. But remember that same-property NOI, it's a 4-quarter average, right? So it's taking the average of the fourth quarter that we anticipate. So some of the recent developments from last year don't affect all quarters. They will affect more the second half of the year.

[Mark Rothschild, analyst]

Okay. I understand. And I guess that would lead into Kevan, maybe the comments you made about -- I don't remember exactly, but you said about 2025 as well, considering there's more leasing to do then. And some of the occupancy pick up through the year, the growth should continue strong in '25 as well?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Yes. I think that's what a lot of people will miss as you're sort of driving NOI and re-leasing activity through the year, at least into the next year. For us, what's particularly sort of encouraging for 2025 is remember, we have roughly 1.5 million feet rolling in the GTA. And right now, where we stand, I mentioned re-leasing spreads. For 2025, I think there's 5.3 million feet rolling. We're anticipating leasing spreads overall of approximately 40%. So we do expect same-property NOI to continue to be very strong. I won't use the word accelerate at this point. We don't know, but we expect it to stay strong through 2025 and into 2026.

[Mark Rothschild, analyst]

And I have about 1.5 million square feet in Santo. Is that more early in '25, late in the year, spread throughout the year?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I think it's throughout the year. Unfortunately, the big ones in the second half of the year, I guess at the end of September.

[Mark Rothschild, analyst]

Okay. So I'll wait to talk about '26. That's fine. And then on the development, you said you're not looking for speculative development. Is that impacted at all by maybe what was a slower pace of leasing at some of the more recent development projects? Or is that just generally the way you feel with the way the environment is now?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Well, yes, it is impacted by it. I mean, I think we're only comfortable taking on so much speculative development at a time. And I think right now, we want to deal with the availabilities in front of us before we move ahead on a speculative basis. Now, saying that, I think we also want to monitor the fundamentals in the markets for the next little while. So even if we were successful in leasing up the available development projects, I'm not sure we would move ahead speculatively. In Branford or Houston at this time, I think it would have to be a careful decision on our part and to move ahead on a speculative basis.

[Mark Rothschild, analyst]

Okay. Great. Thanks very much. That's helpful.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Sam Damiani with TD Securities.

[Sam Damiani, analyst]

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Maybe, Kevan, in your comments included in the outlook statement last night, talking about moderating market rent growth. Is that meant to indicate a change from what you were seeing last quarter? And I guess, what are your expectations for market rents in the upcoming year?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I think we thought for 2023, it would be in the low double digits. And overall, in our markets, it was. I mean, I referred to some of the market rent growth that we saw in Dallas and Chicago, and others. I mean, it was rather tremendous. The GTA came in in the lower. One of our lowest rent growth markets was the GTA at just over 6%. As we look forward to overall market rent growth for our market, I would say probably low to mid-single digits at this point. We did see some backup in rates in Q4, but it's only 1 quarter, and it depends on the deals that were done, that can be impacted by large deals. But also to point out, when you look overall year-over-year, the two major markets in the U.S. that saw negative growth was Los Angeles and New Jersey. So I think we saw relative strength among our markets in the U.S., if that's really what you're focusing on. And at this point, just looking at overall market rent growth, I think single to mid -- sorry, low to mid-single-digit growth for 2024, which probably makes sense to us.

[Sam Damiani, analyst]

That's helpful. And I guess with the sort of increased traction on leasing activity to address the vacant spaces in the U.S., is that partly a result of, I guess, the bid-ask spread, if you will, between landlord and tenant coming together in favor of the tenant? Like how should we think about -- I guess, what's the reason for the reinvigorated leasing traction?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I just think 2023 was very difficult for tenants from a financial perspective. And then of course, it felt like there -- they spent most of 2023 trying to rightsize their balance sheet, trying to rightsize their business. And now as they're facing 2024, there's a question of how much space that they need. And as we've discussed here internally, I think the geopolitical tensions, the issues that we're seeing sort of around the world, and the impact on supply chain is getting back to tenants need to have resiliency in their supply chain. And I think we're just -- it seems, and we're guessing here, but it seems that there is greater confidence on behalf of tenants to now make that decision on where they're going to expand and how they're going to build more resiliency to their supply chain. So that's just the way it feels, what we're seeing at this point. I think it's early days for the year. But certainly, Q1 is a lot better than Q4 was.

[Sam Damiani, analyst]

That's very helpful. And just on the comment you made about some potential distressed situations arising. I just didn't pick it up. Did you say that was mostly in the U.S. or that would include the GTA in Europe as well?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

No. I can't say we've seen too much of that in the GTA. This would be more the U.S. and Europe. So on both sides of the Atlantic, we've seen process of it.

[Sam Damiani, analyst]

Okay. And last question for me. Teresa, if you were to do fixed rate debt in the market today, is there capacity to swap into Euros? In either way, what would that effective rate be if you were to raise new debt today?

[Teresa Neto, executive]

We don't have a lot of room for incremental Euro swap debt. So we have to replace a financing. So, if you look at it today, we can definitely borrow lower than where we were in October. So around the low 4 percentage, like 4.25%. Roughly, if you're looking at kind of like a 5- to 7-year term on a debenture, that's kind of where we would be today.

[Sam Damiani, analyst]

That's great. Thank you, and I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Kyle Stanley with Desjardins Capital Markets.

[Kyle Stanley, analyst]

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. So I think you -- Kevan, you gave some good color to one of Sam's questions there, just on the demand profile. I mean, I think the common expectation right now is that maybe we're either at or nearing peak deliveries in the U.S., and trending towards peak vacancy. I guess the expectation seems to be things improve in the second half of the year under the current demand dynamics. Is there anything you're seeing that suggests either a positive or potentially negative change in demand that would either expedite the improvement or maybe see the current software environment that persists for a bit longer today?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

First of all, I think in terms of -- you're right. I think there's this sort of consensus that the market will rebound strongly in the second half of 2024. I think we're a little more conservative. I think we think the market will be much stronger in 2025 than will be in the second half of 2024. So, I think there will be a sort of slower recovery to this. But to your point, new starts have completely dried up in most of our markets. So, there's still some supply to work through to be sure, at least through the first half of this year, but that will stop. And in terms of like, take a Louisville, for example, we're one of only 2 buildings in that size range in that market, and one is a brand-new build. And so we should be able to compete strongly against that building in terms of rental rate. And so I think we don't need a very strong recovery overall in the market, I think, to perform this year. But for us, the other thing I would say in terms of tenant demand is, it seems like we are seeing a return of the e-commerce users to the market. We have seen Amazon return to a number of our markets looking for space. And so, if there was a catalyst for above-expectation growth, it would be sort of the return of e-commerce users to the market.

[Kyle Stanley, analyst]

Okay. Now, that's very helpful. Just next on your assumption of kind of high 80% or 90% renewals for 2024, what's driving maybe that elevated level of renewal activity in your view?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I just think it's good buildings. I think it's good assets. I think they're well located. When we underwrite assets, tenant covenants, and the quality of the tenants is important to us. And I think that plays into -- I think that plays as a factor as well on this. But I would just speak to just the quality of the location, the quality of the assets more than anything else. I've listened to the calls on some of the larger U.S. REITs, and they're all in the 70s, some of that are in the low 70s in terms of retention rate. So the B in the mid-80s is very strong, and I think it's a feather in our cap regarding the quality of the portfolio.

[Kyle Stanley, analyst]

Agreed, and exactly why I asked the question. So now that makes sense. And just the last one for me. On your AFFO guidance, what kind of leasing costs have you baked in as part of that guidance for the year?

[Teresa Neto, executive]

So I think -- so of the $25 million, about $10 million is for maintenance CapEx and the rest are for leasing and TA. So about $15 million.

[Kyle Stanley, analyst]

Okay. Perfect. Thank you very much. I'll turn back.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Sumayya Syed with CIBC Capital Markets.

[Sumayya Hussain, analyst]

Thanks. Good morning. Kevan, earlier, you mentioned that for the U.S. lease-up assumes all current availability will be dealt with by H2. So should we take it that that's based on current active discussions, i.e., you would have fairly decent visibility to those leases being firmed up?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Yes. I don't want to get into specific deals, certainly or specific markets, but we're probably, I would say, in advanced discussion on roughly 0.5 million feet of space on the current availabilities. And other than that, there are prospects in the markets that we expect to, at some point, be dealing with, but it would be early days.

[Sumayya Hussain, analyst]

Okay. And then can you just talk a little bit about your contractual rent bonds and what you're including in the new leases you're signing?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I think just generally, in North America, both the GTA, and I've got the team here if I'm wrong. The GTA in the U.S., we've been 3.5% and above, has been what we've been achieving in the U.S. and the GTA.

[Sumayya Hussain, analyst]

Okay. So that's still holding steady. Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Matt Kornack with National Bank Financial.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

Hey, guys. Just a quick broader one, and then some technical stuff. But just with regards to your comments around opportunities potentially given your balance sheet. If you were looking at the market today and opportunities were to arise, is there -- would you deploy capital into the same geographies, look to diversify? Or how should we think about capital allocation if you do take your balance sheet strength?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

I don't want to mention specific markets, but I think that there are 1 or 2 new markets. So, I would say non-markets we have in telegraphed for 4 of the markets we're not currently in. Certainly, that would be a consideration for us. But again, there have to be a few conditions that have to be met for us to do that. And I would say, we talked about this with our Board yesterday. I don't -- it doesn't feel like we've seen any deals that have been that compelling or deals that we've missed. Certainly, we've been surprised by some pricing, some asset pricing on deals, but nothing that's been that compelling. So not to say that there's anything that's imminent. Matt, to be honest with you, we've been sort of waiting for to stress in the system in the markets, and we've been, I don't know, somewhat disappointed, I guess. That we haven't seen it. We're not quite sure why not. But if we're right, and we do see those deals, we do have 2 or 3 markets that we're quite focused on right now, if opportunities arise.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

And even to the extent that there is distress, is your view that there's still capital on the sidelines looking to get into industrial longer term that may not necessarily be pricing adjust or?

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

Yes. Yes. I mean, obviously, the levered buyers are sort of kind of on the sidelines. And I think a number of the private equity players have been quietly selling assets. So is it distressed? Was it planned all along? I'm not really sure. So there are fewer of the levered buyers around for sure, but it looks like people have stepped into, whether it's pension funds or lower leverage private equity. Have stepped in to fill the void for sure. There seems to be no shortage of buyers.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

Okay. And then for Teresa, just on the amortization of tenant incentives, I think most of that related to the 2014 renewal of Graz. Should we assume that amortization of Graz goes to 0 or something much lower than the current?

[Teresa Neto, executive]

That is right. So we'll just have like 1 month, right, because the Graz real in February, and then you can assume CRO for the rest of the year.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

Okay. And then similarly on straight-line rent, you did convert some straight-line to cash rent. It looked like this quarter. But is there more to go? I know there were some free rent periods that we're wearing off.

[Teresa Neto, executive]

Yes. They were wearing off exactly. So that's why we're about $1 million lower this quarter. So I think you can expect like Q1 to be a little bit similar to Q4, and then -- and it should be more or less similar. But then as we lease up some of these developments on the vacant development, then you'll get a bump up -- assuming we have some straight-line rent in those lease deals.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

Okay. So there may be some free rent in the new leasing. So you're probably seeing an FFO, not necessarily in AFFO for this year, and then you get the FFO conversion into '25. And then lastly, S&P NOI, including expansions, do you have a sense as to whether expansions were a contributor in Q4, and then maybe a sense of how much they contribute in 2024 as well?

[Teresa Neto, executive]

The expansion was very little. I think it makes a difference of 0.1%. Yes. So it's not very much.

[Matt Kornack, analyst]

Okay. That's it. Thanks, Teresa.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time.

[Kevan Gorrie, executive]

All right, operator. Well, on behalf of Granite's management team, thank you for being a part of the Q4 call, and look forward to speaking with you again in May.

[Operator]

That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your line. Have a great day, everyone.