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Granite Real Estate Investment Trust
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Good morning, and welcome to Granite REIT's Q3 2021 Conference Call. Speaking to you on the call this morning is Kevan Gorrie, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Teresa Neto, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Teresa Neto to go over certain advisories, followed by an introduction from Kevan Gorrie. Please go ahead.
Before we begin today's call, we would like to remind everyone that statements and information made in today's discussion may constitute forward-looking statements and forward-looking information, including, but not limited to, expectations regarding future earnings and capital expenditures as well as potential impact of COVID-19 and that actual results could differ materially from any conclusion, forecast or projection.These statements and information are based on certain material facts or assumptions, reflect management's current expectations and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in Granite's material filed with Canadian Securities Administrators and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Risk Factors section of its annual information form for 2021 filled on March -- filed on March 3, 2021.Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any of these forward-looking statements and forward-looking information. Granite undertakes no intention or obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements or forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In addition, the remarks this morning may include financial terms and measures that do not have a standardized meaning under international financial reporting standards. Please refer to Q3 21 -- 2021 condensed combined unaudited financial results and MD&A of Granite Real Estate Investment Trust and Granite REIT Inc. and other materials filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for additional relevant information.Over to you, Kevan, for opening remarks.
Thanks, Teresa, and thank you to everyone for taking the time to join us for our Q3 Earnings Call. As usual, I am pleased to be joined this morning by of course Teresa; Lorne Kumer, our Executive Vice President of Global Real Estate; and Michael Ramparas, our Executive Vice President of Global Real Estate and Head of Investments. For our call this morning, Teresa will begin with a discussion of our financial highlights. I will then provide an update on our operations, acquisitions, developments and ESG and then open up the call for any questions that you may have.
Thanks, Kevan. Good morning, again, everyone. Granite posted solid third quarter results, which are in line with expectations despite FFO and AFFO per unit continuing to realize temporary dilutive effect of Granite's recent equity and debt offerings, where net proceeds have not yet been fully deployed. FFO per unit in Q3 was $0.99, representing a 3.1% increase relative to same quarter prior year and flat to Q2. FFO was positively impacted by 10.5% growth in net operating income relative to prior year, however, FFO was negatively impacted by foreign exchange translation losses of our foreign based income, as both the euro and US dollar are 5% weaker relative to the same quarter last year, resulting in a $0.05 decline in FFO per unit.Partially offsetting these translation losses are $0.8 million of net foreign currency gains realized in the third quarter as a result of Granite's AFFO foreign currency hedging program. Granite's AFFO on a per unit basis in Q3 was $0.93, which is 2.2% higher than prior year and $0.03 lower than Q2. AFFO related capital expenditures leasing cost and tenant allowances incurred in the quarter were $3.1 million, which is $2.3 million higher than the same quarter last year and $1.4 million higher than Q2. The majority of expenditures this quarter to pertains to a lease extension and renewal at one of Granite's Ohio properties.We are expecting an active final quarter in respect of the capital expenditures and estimate maintenance capital and leasing cost of approximately $7 million in Q4 for a total year expenditure of about $13 million, unchanged from estimates provided on the Q2 call. With respect to 2022, an increased level of lease turnover for the year, we are estimating AFFO related maintenance capital expenditures and leasing costs of approximately $15 million. Granite's AFFO payout ratio came in at a conservative 81% for the third quarter and is tracking 79% on a year-to-date basis.NOI on a cash basis for the quarter increased $9.1 million or 12.2% from the same quarter in 2020 and increased $3.7 million or 4.6% from Q2 of this year with some favorable impact coming from the US dollar, which strengthened 2.6% since the second quarter. Same property NOI for Q3 was very strong relative to same quarter last year, increasing 5% on a constant currency basis, but effectively flat when foreign currency effects are included. Same property NOI growth was driven primarily by positive leasing spreads, contractual rent and CPI increases across all of Granite's REIT regions as well as the expiry of free rent periods that were realized in the prior year at Granite's All Points, Indianapolis and Tilburg and Ede, Netherlands assets.G&A for the quarter was $8.9 million, which is $0.7 million lower than the same quarter last year, but $0.6 million higher than Q2. The main variance relative to Q2 is due to the recognition of $1.5 million of unit-based compensation expense as a result of fair value losses recognized on a non-cash compensation liabilities due to an increase in Granite's unit price during the quarter. In comparison to the third quarter of 2020, the $0.7 million positive variance is related to the $1.1 million in severance costs we recognized in the prior year, which is not present this quarter.On a run rate basis, we expect G&A expenses to continue at approximately $8.5 million per quarter or roughly just below 8% of revenues. For income tax, Q3 current income tax was $2.4 million, which is $0.4 million higher than Q2, which excludes the $2.3 million of current taxes we recognized on the sale of an Austrian property in Q2. The increase in current tax relates to a strengthened US dollar this quarter, and an increase in state taxes as a result of Granite's recent acquisition activity in the U.S.On a run rate basis, we estimate current tax at approximately $2.25 million per quarter going forward. With respect to the potential recognition of reversals of tax provisions, as mentioned on previous calls, Granite does still have a further potential $2 million of tax liability reversals that may be recognized in Q4 this year, but we cannot make an estimate until December 31st. The trust balance sheet comprising of total assets of $8.2 million at the end of the quarter was positively impacted by $432 million in fair value gains to Granite's investment property portfolio in the third quarter, plus $69 million of translation gains on Granite's foreign-based investment properties, particularly impacted by the US dollar, which increased 2.2% over Q2.The fair value gains on Granite's investment property portfolio are attributable to fair value gains across all of Granite's regions, but particularly, the trust's assets in the GTA and U.S. due to increases in fair market rent assumptions and declines and cap rates. The trust's overall weighted average cap rate of 4.8% decreased a further 30 basis points from the end of Q2 and has declined a total of 80 basis points year-to-date thus far. Total net leverage as at September 30th was 23%, up 3 percentage points from Q2 and net debt to EBITDA remains healthy at 5.7x. The trust's current liquidity is approximately $1.8 million, representing cash on hand of about $770 million and we still have our undrawn operating line of $998 million.Thank you, and I will turn it over to Kevan.
Thanks, Teresa. As always, I'll keep my comments brief, as I trust, you've had the opportunity to review our MD&A and press release. I'll start by repeating 2 themes from our opening comments on our last call. Once again, we posted an inline quarter, and it is again worth highlighting that FFO and AFFO for the quarter increased year-over-year, despite a corresponding negative move in FX of roughly $0.05 and the drag from the proceeds of the Bought Deal equity offering, as well as the $0.02 impact on our G&A from the appreciation of our unit price in the quarter, which often gets overlooked.Also worth highlighting, I think is the increase in the fair market value of our portfolio in the quarter. As Teresa mentioned, with gains across our entire portfolio on a constant currency basis, led by fair market value increases in the U.S., GTA and the Netherlands due to further increases in market rental rates and conversely declines in cap rates for modern logistics assets across our target markets in those jurisdictions. We continue to execute well on our strategic plan. As disclosed in the MD&A and press release, we acquired 6 income producing properties in our target markets in the U.S. and the Netherlands in the quarter for approximately CAD300 million.In addition, we acquired roughly 130 acres of development land in Brantford, Ontario and Nashville, which will support over 2.2 million square feet when completed. Subsequent to the end of the quarter, we agreed to acquire 74 acres of land and approximately 1 million square feet of new buildings upon completion in Indiana and a 495,000 square foot build-to-suit distribution facility currently being constructed in Tilburg, the Netherlands. Combined, the Nashville, Indiana and Tilburg properties represent roughly CAD310 million in committed capital.We are also conducting due diligence on roughly $390 million in further acquisitions of stabilized assets in our target markets in Germany, the Netherlands and the GTA, which we expect to close on in Q4 or early Q1 2022. Now, as I've stated on previous calls, a central component of our strategy is to leverage our platform and incorporate more development into our growth. We now currently have 4 speculative projects underway, totaling 2.3 million square feet in Dallas, Nashville and Altbach, which is a suburb of Stuttgart, Germany and a further 1.7 million square feet planned for 2022 in Houston, Indiana and the GTA.Keep in mind that this excludes our development site at Brantford, which may also commence in 2022, depending on the pace of our current development projects and associated leasing. We also have 1.25 million square feet of fully leased projects under development in the Netherlands, Houston and the GTA. It is worth noting that aside from the expansion of the Congebec food distribution facility included in that total, the development properties in Houston and the Netherlands are not, per se, build-to-suit projects. They are both generic, functional, distribution and e-commerce buildings that simply have long-term leases in place.Once stabilized, we expect these developments to drive significant NAV and cash flow growth, as well as further enhance the quality of our portfolio. It is also worth noting that all of the abovementioned developments are expected to receive rebuilding certification and will satisfy the criteria outlined in our Green Bond framework.Staying on ESG, as disclosed in our MD&A, we are proud to report that Granite achieved a Global ESG Benchmark or GRESB score of 65 out of 100 for 2021 versus the average for our peer group of 52, of which Granite was the only Canadian reporting entity. We also achieved the highest score in the category of public disclosure. I would like to acknowledge and commend our team for their efforts in improving our ESG performance, and we believe there is an opportunity to further improve our benchmark scores as we set performance targets for 2021 and beyond.Operationally, as stated on our second quarter call, we have now renewed or released all 2.3 million square feet of our 2021 lease expiries, and we have conditional lease deals, totaling approximately 300,000 feet on our vacant space in Atlanta and at our recently acquired property in Utrecht, the Netherlands. Looking to 2022, we have renewed just under 2 million feet in the U.S., at an average rental rate increase of 9.2%. We have further renewal commitments totaling roughly 550,000 feet at an estimated average increase of 38%.So in total, roughly 45% of our 2022 expiries have been renewed, and we expect to achieve an average rental rate increase of between 7% and 8% on the remaining 3 million feet -- 3 million square feet of expiries. As Teresa mentioned earlier and as disclosed in our MD&A, same-property NOI increased by 5% on a constant currency basis, driven by strong re-leasing spreads, contractual rent increases and the expiry of rent-free periods on a few of our newer assets in the U.S. and the Netherlands, offset partially by a contractual free rent period and short-term vacancy at 2 of our properties in Germany.Concurrent with the release of our quarterly earnings, we announced the establishment of an at the market equity distribution program. We believe the ATM is an appropriate option for Granite, given our growth and particularly the scale of our ongoing development program. And furthermore, the timing we feel is appropriate given the recent renewal of our base shelf prospectus in October and the fact that we do not have immediate need for capital. I can assure all of our unitholders, we intend to apply this tool in a thoughtful and prudent manner in the future. We're also excited to announce our 10th consecutive annual distribution increase. Operational performance and accretive acquisitions and developments, combined with a strong balance sheet, have positioned us well to increase the distribution for 2022, while maintaining conservative capital ratios and I think, demonstrates the confidence that the Board has in our ability to drive cash flow growth in the future.In closing, I think the quarter was once again characterized by operational stability and fair value gains. And while our cash flow per unit metrics were impacted somewhat by the dilution from our June equity offering and the timing of acquisitions as mentioned, we are very well positioned to continue to execute on our strategic plan and deliver strong long-term results for our unitholders.On that note, I will open up the floor for any questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Brad Sturges with Raymond James.
Just on the acquisition front there. I think, you highlighted potential for another, call it, $390 million of investments, Q4, Q1. Just what would be the mix of that between income-producing and development?
Sorry, Brad, they're all income producing. They're all stabilized assets.
Got it. Okay. And if I heard you correctly there, the thinking around the ATM program, obviously, you're in a very strong liquidity position now, but that would be, I guess, really just utilized to help fund the development pipeline or program over time, I guess?
And it's -- to be fair, it's a program we have contemplated at Granite for many months now, but we knew that our base shelf was expiring in October of this year. So it didn't make any sense to implement an ATM in the short term, so we decided to wait until we renewed our base shelf prospectus for 25 months in October, so the timing was right and you're right, this is not something that we feel we would need to utilize immediately, but it gives us a useful tool or option in the future to fund development, acquisitions in the short term and just do it on an as-needed basis when appropriate.
In general terms with the development program and there's -- obviously, there's pretty robust rent growth happening, but also increasing costs on the development side. So when you think about your returns or development yields, where do you see that playing out? Have you seen any change in the type of development returns you think you can achieve?
Well, I don't think we see -- we certainly have seen rising cost, and I don't know in the short term, if we've seen the end of that. But we've also seen, as you've mentioned, we've seen rental rates increase, and we've seen cap rates decrease. So the IRR part of our models is more or less intact. If it's hit, I don't think it's materially hit, but the yields may go down. As you've seen, we're not in the low-6s anymore. We're in the low to mid-5s, but at the same time, our exit cap rates have had to be adjusted as well. So the IRR portion of it is more or less intact on our development. We still find them very -- Nashville is a very difficult market to enter. We know that from experience and it's very difficult to find product that meets our investment criteria in terms of quality. So this is the best way for us to enter that market and deliver an outgrowth and the type of returns that make sense for us. So I hope, I'm answering the question. I think, the returns from development overall are intact.
And has your thinking changed at all in terms of the amount of exposure you would want from the development versus what the returns you get for buying stabilized product?
Well, no, and I think, we're bumping up against our range to be honest with you. I think, we have made a lot of investment in development projects in the short term. It's not an accident that the assets we're working on now are all stabilized and so before we -- I would say this, before we were to invest significantly in future development projects, I think, we have some leasing to do on our current pipeline, if that answers the question.
Our next question is from Joanne Chen, BMO Capital Markets.
Thanks for the color on the renewal for the 2022. I just wanted to -- I might have missed this, so I just wanted to clarify, were you saying that you expect to achieve about 7% to 8% rent lift on the remaining renewals for 2022?
Of the $3 million, correct. So this $5.5 million...
Of the $3 million.
Yes. Of the remaining $3 million that have not been spoken for.
And is most of that in the U.S. or is it -- the remaining?
No. Mostly, the remaining is mostly in the U.S., but there is still the large asset in Austria, Lannach with Magna and just to remind everybody, that expires December 31, 2022, but the notice period is December 31, 2021. So we expect to receive notice from the tenant Magna by the end of the year, maybe not before it, but by the end of the year, and that's 800,000 feet. So that is a chunk of that $3 million remaining to be renewed or released.
Okay. Got it. And maybe this is something a little bit more specific, but obviously, very strong organic growth across all your markets on a constant currency basis this quarter, which is great to see. But just wondering, it was a little bit of -- it look a little bit late in Germany. I was wondering if -- I know, obviously, a very small component of the overall portfolio. But just wondering, was there just one-off that happened during the quarter?
Well, it's -- yes, it is -- it kind of is a one-off. We had a short-term vacancy at our asset in Herford. And then there was a contractual free rent period that hit us hard in the quarter, in Q3 in one of our other assets in Germany and that was related to a renewal with the tenant a few years ago. So that was a free rent period that hit us, and I believe that burns off...
After October, I think it's one more month.
Okay. One more month. So we'll hit it somewhat in the fourth quarter, but then that will be it.
Okay. Got it. And within the -- just going back to U.S., have you noticed any change in leasing dynamics during the quarter with respect to any of the delta, I would imagine, normal rate, I imagine, still a very strong demand across the board.
Yes. And I think the best way I would put it is, in Q2, I think we felt -- I think, overall, for 2022, I felt like we would be 7% to 8% ahead in terms of rent. And now, as we sit here today, we're thinking 10% to 11%, and that's mostly driven by our spreads in the U.S. Now, we don't have a lot rolling in Canada to be fair and a lot of the roll is contractually -- it's prescribed under the lease. So there isn't as much ability to move to market per se. So it's really driven by the U.S., and that's moved 2% to 3% in a quarter.
Got it. And I guess, just on the -- within Canada, obviously, the GTA remains red hot. Just kind of wondering, thinking with respect to your growth opportunities within Canada. Would you think you're likely sticking on the GTA or would you start looking at kind of more so of the neighboring secondary markets, which are picking up quite a bit as well?
We monitor other markets outside the GTA. We look at Montreal. We've looked at opportunities in Montreal. We've looked at opportunities in Vancouver, even to a degree, looked at opportunities in Alberta. It is very attractive in the GTA. The growth profile that's available in the GTA and certain assets is admittedly very attractive, but these deals are going. Where you see the growth? These deals are going for 3 now -- north of 320 a foot. And I think for us, I think that there are just better total return, risk-adjusted returns in other markets. So not to say, I mean, we have almost 100 million feet under contract in the GTA that we're working on. So we are pursuing select deals. I just -- I think, there is the ability to overpay for growth. And so I'm not -- we're trying to be as active as possible in the GTA, but I think your question is, is this going to move us into other markets? Well, we are looking at Montreal on a select basis. Vancouver, I just can't see how the returns are going to make sense to us and there may be a time where we look more seriously at Alberta again. But right now, our focus in Canada is essentially the GTA.
Okay. Got it. Okay. Yes, because markets like Limburg is really picking up as well. Okay. And maybe just one last one for me. Any -- do you think we could see some dispositions pick up this quarter, I mean, given where pricing is? Would that make sense for you guys?
Well, we have 2 plans. We have one in Austria, which is a small one and we have the Poland asset and I think, in total, it's almost $50 million that are assets out for sale. We do expect to sell those in the fourth quarter. I can't off the top of my head, think of any large dispositions we have in front of us for 2022, that could change. But right now, I think that our disposition activity will be relatively light to the end of this year or into 2022.
Our next question is from Mike Markidis with Desjardins Capital Markets.
Kevan, could you just remind us on the Lannach asset. Is that a market option or is it a fixed option?
No, it's fixed. There are different cash flow streams, too, but they're all subject to prescribed rental rate adjustments. So that one does not move to market.
It does not move to market and what's the option then? Is it just a flat or is it CPI based or how does it fair?
No, it's -- they're all different. There's all different mechanisms. Some are just fixed increases. Some are CPI look backs. Again, there are different streams at that one property. So they're a mix of all of the above over time. That's the best way I could describe it.
Okay, okay. And then just in terms of -- assuming they do exercise with the average rent lift on that be consistent with the average you're expecting for the remainder of this year on the $3 million or would be materially above or below?
I think -- I don't think it would be materially below, but I think it would be below.
A little bit below. Okay, that's great. Okay. On the development side, I haven't bothered and I don't know if you disclosed this to calculate the amount of your balance sheet that's tied up in development. But just as you look to sort of lever your platform more, in an ideal world, is it at a steady state now where you like the share of the balance sheet in development or is that something you'd like to increase presuming the leasing there over time?
Well, including the commitments, I think we have quite a bit. I think, we've always said being between 5% to 10% makes sense for us. So that would suggest we're building somewhere around -- based on our current size, we're building somewhere around 2.5 to 3.5 million feet and I think that, that's where we'll be. We're slightly elevated right now and frankly, I will tell you the current state of the market gives us that confidence. But I think, steady state will be somewhere between 5% to 8% in development.
Okay. And that's on a dollar basis or just looking at the square footage?
I think, either way. The easiest way of square footage works out to normally the same number on a dollar basis.
Okay. Great. And last one for me before I turn it back. Just with the ATM program that you've launched, which I think is a great program for our reach going forward. And with the market as hot as it is, do you feel that you have the tools or do you have the visibility now, where the cash balance can finally start to come down or do you think that will remain elevated throughout 2022?
I certainly don't -- it will come down. Yes, I wouldn't want to put a number on it. I'm looking at $379 million, not putting an exact number on it, but we do not intend to carry $700 million in cash. Although, it would be nice, it's not our intent to carry at such an elevated level. Now clearly, having development commitments makes us feel like we should -- a higher level of cash makes sense, but certainly not close to $750 million.
Right. Okay. And then when you think about the cash, more in line just thinking about where your leverage sits, because you do have billion dollars of availability on the line as well, right?
Correct. And interestingly, we are not -- we don't -- we're not reluctant to use the line. I don't think we've needed to, but as we've talked internally, even if we're carrying $300 million in cash, and there's a very compelling acquisition opportunity in front of us, I don't pass on it, because we would have to dip into our line. And as you said, the ATM -- for someone that's as active on the development side as us in growing, it seems to make sense. It's not a large number, given our scale, $250 million in total. So it's not meant to replace a discrete equity offering that's tied to a use of funds, a particular use of funds. But it just gives us another tool and I think, we'll see how 2022 goes. But I think that there could very well be a situation, where we're dipping into the line to fund particular transactions.
Got you. Okay. No. And just quite turn it back, completely agree. I think, the ATM is very responsible tool and congratulations on getting that launched.
Our next question is from Sam Damiani, TD Securities.
Just first question, Kevan, I guess, just on the development pipeline, and I appreciate the color and the sort of targeted exposure, but with respect to the existing active projects, what would be the timing we should be expecting in terms of getting meaningful lease-up on that availability?
Yes. I hope when we have our fourth call -- fourth quarter call -- well, certainly, it would be -- we do expect to get some leases completed by the end of the year. But when we have our fourth quarter call, we would expect to have updates on Altbach, which should be completed, I think, in the first quarter of 2022. Dallas, I think, is the second quarter, if I'm not mistaken of next year. Now, Dallas, I mean, the steel has just begun to be erected and I think that, that's an important turning point in terms of marketing leasing. We've already responded to 2 requests for proposals on that project, which I think is still in the early stages from a marketing leasing perspective, but that is going well. So they're coming along. In Houston, our phase 1 was interrupted by our build-to-suit opportunity for the e-commerce user. So we're using those approvals and site works, we're moving it to that build-to-suit and so phase 1 will be delayed into 2022, and we'll start marketing pretty soon on that piece.
So phase 1 is now phase 2.
Exactly.
So maybe just looking at your held for sale in, I guess, Austria and Poland. I'm just wondering, what the rationale was there. Is a decision to sort of exit the Poland market and this Austria asset, just curious why you put that one up for sale today?
Well, the Austrian asset is an older manufacturing site, and it was always identified as noncore, probably one of our toughest assets. So it's one that we never intended to hang on to, and we have an opportunity to sell it, we're taking it. The Poland asset is a little bit more, I think, frustrating to us. It's a market we -- the market is one that we like in Poland, but this just is not the right-sized asset. And the development does not give us enough flexibility to build the type of assets that we think we need in that market. So overall, we like Poland. We even like this market. It's just not the right asset in that market for us. So I think it makes more sense for us to sell it and move on to other opportunities potentially in Poland.
Okay. That's helpful. And last question for me. Is there capacity on the balance sheet today to do more cross-currency interest rate swaps?
There is loss for the US dollar but for the euro, not at this time. I'd say, we're maxed out at this time on the euro, until we get new investments in Europe.
Next question is from Himanshu Gupta, Scotiabank.
So first question is for Teresa. What kind of foreign exchange hedges, if any, do you have in place for the next year? I mean, just wondering, how much fluctuations in currency will impact FFO next year?
Sorry, Himanshu, can you repeat the question? I didn't pick up on it.
Yes. So my question was, do you have any hedging program for 2022 for the next year? I mean, just wondering, the fluctuations in the US dollar and euro, how will that impact the numbers?
Right. No. So the hedging program that we had in place this year, which we've been realizing some gains on, that does end on December 31st. So our only hedging will really be the debt that we have in place. It's a natural hedge in both Europe and the U.S. So of course, in the U.S., we're a little bit more exposed. And I would say, $0.01 change in the US dollar would cause a $0.02 impact on FFO and for the euro, a $0.01 change impacts FFO by $0.01. So we'll just have natural hedges for now. We didn't extend it because we definitely put in place at the right time, which we -- has worked in our favor this year, but the program, it just -- we felt that we would be locking in at rates that we think that would not allow us to participate in any strengthening of the euro on the USD, which, at least on the USD side, their forecast seems to indicate that we will be seeing a rise in US dollar. Euro is another story. Looks like it's -- may be holding flat for a while.
Got it. Okay. And then shifting gears, Kevan, on the GTA development in Brantford, looks like it may not start next year. So are you waiting for zoning or any other approvals before you begin construction there?
No, it's not that. We are actually moving dirt and preparing it, preparing the site for site work. So we want to be in a position where we can respond to build-to-suit opportunities and we'll monitor the market and see. I mean, the market may be so strong we decide to move ahead for -- on the first phase, the speculative. But I would like to see us clear up some of the leasing opportunities on our current development pipeline. So we're preparing the site to be able to respond quickly to any opportunities. I'm just saying right now where we sit, we've got a lot of work to do in the current development pipeline. And so we could see Brantford the commencement of vertical construction start in 2023 versus 2022. I hope that I'm wrong. I think, the team agrees if there is an opportunity for us to move forward with the build-to-suit or something really compelling in 2022, we won't hesitate. But right now, I think we've got enough on our plate as we sit here today, that may change in the coming quarters.
Got it. And will there be persons to prelease some of it or go speculative and then move as it comes closer to completion?
You know what, it's -- we're not -- we don't hesitate to go forward on spec, because at the end of the day, a lot of times these tenants, even the large ones, even the sophisticated ones make leasing decisions within 6 months. And so we will hold out for build-to-suit, but we also have a very good idea in our mind what we want to build. And so we're willing to move forward and do that and try and find a tenant later. So we'll see but right now, we're developing the site so that we can respond to the right build-to-suit opportunities if they come along in 2022.
All right. That’s fair enough. And then on the same lines, on the Houston development, phase 1 is now the phase 2. Is there a change in strategy? How you are approaching the construction? I mean, this phase 2 was more relevant for the type of tenants for that site?
No. And actually, we're building a bigger building in phase 2 for the tenant than we thought we're going to build. So in a way, it's benefiting us because it actually increases our density in site, it makes the site a little more efficient for us. So we have approvals, stormwater approvals, et cetera, for phase 1. We're shifting that to phase 2 to meet the tenants' deadline, and now we will reapply for those site work approvals and stormwater approvals for what is now phase 2, which was phase I, and we'll start construction, hopefully, in 2022. But it has not impacted the site negatively in a way it's made it little more efficient, where we can add more density there without affecting the access or the flow of the site. If you can imagine, phase 2, we thought we're going to build 2 buildings at 700,000 feet. Now, we're building one building at 700,000 feet and just to make the point that phase 3, we've designed the site and phased the site intentionally to leave a large piece to the east that could accommodate 2 500,000 square foot buildings or one building in excess of 1 million feet, just in case there is that need in the market.
Got it. And then, I'm looking at the Nashville forward purchase, that property $66 million, 0.5 million square feet, is the construction cost $130 per foot, I mean, as per my calculation?
That sounds a little high on -- it sounds a little high, but CAD 130?
No, USD 130. So I'm looking at the $66 million of forward purchase, and I think it's 0.5 million square feet. So call it, something like USD130. I thought a bit on the higher side. Just wondering, is that a reflection of the property or the higher construction cost or maybe just a market?
No, it could be -- we have to check -- I know. Thanks, Mike. This project in Nashville is actually 3 smaller mid pay buildings. So the one in Murfreesboro is a large 850,000 foot sort of e-commerce monster. These buildings are smaller pay buildings. So they should carry a higher cost per square foot to build them and that would also -- that would also include the monetizing cost, et cetera.
Okay, okay. That's helpful. And I'm just looking -- and maybe the last question on the acquisition mix. And I know, I think it's been addressed to a very large extent. My question is that next year, the mix is still going to be more U.S. versus Canada and Europe? And are you seeing any like more new supply in any of your U.S. markets?
Sorry, are you talking about 2022 in terms of the turnover?
I'm talking about the acquisition mix for the next year. Will that still be more towards U.S. and are you seeing like new supply pockets, which you may not prefer to be in those markets, because?
I would say, again, I think a lot of it's going to be opportunity-driven. We are -- I would like to keep our mix the way that it is, but this year, we seem to be more active in Europe and I think we'll finish the year pretty active in Europe. So you could see our activity in Europe go up a little more. I think, what we've seen in the past few years, we will see continue. I think, we'll continue to be busy in the U.S. In terms of where we've really seen opportunities, there isn't a lot of pricing opportunities or dislocation in any of our markets. We've identified Savannah, Louisville and a few others as be in those markets that may have been overlooked in the past couple of years, they are no longer overlooked. I think, there's a lot of pricing tension in the market. So -- and hence, to go back to my comments from the second quarter. This is why we're looking at forward purchases. This is why we're looking at development opportunities in these markets because it seems to be the only way we can get the type of assets that meet our quality expectations and deliver decent returns. But there are some opportunities that we're seeing out there. I don't want to say too much, because I don't want to give away any of our competitive advantage but just to make the comment that -- and you've seen it in our fair value gains, the cap rates right now are falling, are very tight and falling across all of our markets and admittedly, we pay more attention to our target markets as we should than other markets. But L.A. is in the 2s. We've seen New Jersey in 2% to 3%, and these are stabilized assets. So clearly, investors believe that there's a lot of runway for rent growth and they're willing to get very aggressive and it's interesting to see, I mean, L.A., your 2% to 3%, you're going to have a negative arbitrage to your financing costs. And so if there are levered buyers out there, which we know that there are, they're clearly -- they're relying on rent growth to create a positive arbitrage to their financing. So it's interesting to see, but the sort of dynamic and falling cap rates we've seen across all of our markets.
Our next question is from Pammi Bir, RBC Capital Markets.
Just with respect to the Brantford side again. I'm just curious, how would the rents today perhaps in that market or maybe the rents that you might be targeting on the site? How would they compare to the GTA and have you seen any expressions of interest yet from a build-to-suit standpoint?
We have received some interest in the site. We're not sure who the tenant is, but I would just say that it's a very initial interest. In terms of the rents, it's one of the things that drew us to this market. As we said, we looked at all of the markets around the GTA and where was the best place for us to deploy capital on the development side in the GTA. We underwrote rents in the $7.50 to $8 range and I feel that, that probably has moved up another $0.50 or so since we first started looking at this site, you compare that to the GTA, where we've seen average rents north of 12% now for similar product. Actually, I wouldn't even say similar product, but -- so we think that there's still quite a difference or an arbitrage between the rents in Brantford and markets like that, and I would say, the central GTA locations.
Got it. And maybe just -- you mentioned, I think it was a 38% spread on 500,000 square feet of leasing that was done. I'm just -- can you provide some context around that, which markets, was it -- or the types of tenants there?
I can't provide too much. I don't want to name the tenants, but roughly half of that is in the GTA and half of it's in Europe.
Okay. And just, again, nice to see the pickup in the organic growth and recognizing that a number of your leases do still have, of course, CPI and fixed rate increases, and you've still got Lannach to address. How does the momentum perhaps impact your outlook for same-property NOI growth next year? And how might that break down regionally?
Well, it's a good question. I mean I think, like we said, as we're looking to 2022, we're seeing very healthy gains in rental rate, but we have a lot of turnover. And so I think that -- and we said before, looking at same-property NOI on an annual basis, may not be the most relevant metric for us. I will look at it on a quarter-over-quarter basis as we move forward. So next year, I think will be -- I would just put it similar to this year, but there will be pockets or quarters where we have turnover. Right now, what we're looking at, of the remaining 3 million feet, there's roughly $1 million where there will be turnover, where the tenant will move out. So we will have short term downtime associated with those assets, but we are projecting rent lifts of between 10% and 20%. So it will set us up for a better 2023, if you will. And I think we're going to finish the year quite strong on a same-property NOI basis next year. So a lot of leasing activity, a lot of strong lifts, but there will be some downtime associated with some of these releasing efforts at these properties.
Got it. Maybe just on the Indiana acqui, just curious whether yourselves or the developer are responsible for leasing there? And what does that sort of targeted yield look like?
No. We will -- when we have more information, we'll share it to you on the yield for Indiana. We really can't say much under the terms of the purchase and sale agreement. I will say this, as with all of our developments, we drive the leasing.
Okay. And is the expectation based on that asset would be income-producing by the end of next year or does that kind of bleed into perhaps 2023, once a tenant may be in place?
I would expect it would bleed into 2023. I think we will -- we are estimating we will have leasing done by the end of the year, whether it's 100%. I don't -- we're not expecting that. I think, it will bleed into 2023.
Okay. And maybe just lastly, and I'll take a shot at this, but based on your last answer, I'm not sure if we'll get color. But on the Tilburg acquisition, what -- that property is I believe, fully leased, what does the other cap rate on that look like or even a range?
3.25% to 3.5%.
Our next question is from Matt Kornack of National Bank of Canada.
I don't know if this is by design or it was just the nature of the opportunity set presented to you, but it seems like the weighted average lease term on the assets you're acquiring has come down this year. Is that a function of just confidence in the leasing market or is it just what was presented in the assets you like for location and other attributes?
Well, I think a lot of them may be just 5-year renewal options the tenant has. I think that would be the reason behind that.
Okay. So it wasn't -- it's not necessarily a shift in strategy that you want to get at potential rent increases earlier in the term?
Well, yes and no. I mean, it's -- I do agree with what you said. I don't feel the need to do long-term leases. I don't feel they need to provide concessions or pay for long-term leases. I'm very comfortable and I think the team is very comfortable in looking at different options, including shorter lease terms and getting to that higher rent in the near term. So we are comfortable with it. It's not a specific strategy that we have. So it's not that we're looking to do 2 and 3 or 5-year terms versus 10-year terms. I think it's just the way it's turning out and a lot of it would be related to renewal options in favor of the tenant.
Okay. That's fair enough. And then with regards to -- because, obviously, in 2020 and 2020 -- sorry, in 2019, you bought some fully leased, longer duration leases on acquisitions. Do you kind of track where in place versus market rents are and can you kind of speak to how that has widened, because presumably, the rents at which you bought these assets, it seems like market is probably increasing at a greater rate than the steps in those leases? So any sense as to where the mark-to-market is?
Yes, we do. And I would characterize it this way, my earlier comment to your question this morning was from Q2, I think we projected next year's turnover and a lot of that was in the U.S. was around 7% to 8%. We're expecting to see that in terms of rent list. We've now changed that to 10% to 11%. So it has moved roughly 3% from last quarter. Now maybe we are a bit conservative but it gives you a sense of how fast the market is moving, the rental market is moving.
And we know, obviously, again, Toronto is strong but in terms of the Midwest, Southeast, Texas, et cetera, where you are. Are those kind of increasing and maybe not at the same rate, but fairly strong rates as well?
Yes. I mean, we've seen -- you mentioned those markets. We've seen 4% to 5%. You're right, is it moving as fast as the GTA? Probably not, but it's moving. That 4% to 5% range is, I think, fair for those markets, rental rate growth.
And next question is from Sumayya Syed with CIBC.
Just curious, Kevan, if you're seeing any of the supply chain issues filtering through to the portfolio and how that's impacting tenant behavior and their demand for space?
Yes, it's a great question. We've talked about it internally. We haven't really seen it manifest itself in a way that's -- that seems to be impacting your tenants. One thing that we've heard is they're very full. They're not able to move goods, particularly in land. A lot of the containers seem to be moving, shuttling back and forth between Asia and they're not making it into the interior part of the U.S. So they're busy, but they're reaching capacity at their warehouses. So I don't know what the impact will be if this sort of supply chain disruption continues for another 6 months or so but it's -- they're busier than they were 6 months ago, because of the supply chain disruptions.
Okay. Interesting. And I just wanted to follow up on, I guess, capital recycling and your footprint, you exited the U.K. and now you're going to be out of Poland. So are you sort of comfortable with your current market footprint or do you see more opportunities to narrow that further?
Well, you're right. We are out of the U.K., but we did look at an opportunity in the U.K. recently. So not to say that we couldn't go back to the U.K. We have stated that the markets we're most focused on in Europe are the Netherlands, Germany and Poland, maybe in that order, maybe not. So even though we expect to sell our loan property in Poland by the end of this year, I would expect us to be in Poland next year in terms of assets. So we are looking at opportunities actively in Poland as well. So those are the 3 markets, where we're spending our time on right now are Germany, the Netherlands and Poland.
And we have a follow-up from Sam Damiani, TD Securities.
Just a couple of quick follow-ups. First of all, you have a number of fixed rent renewal leases in Europe. Is it much of that in the GTA portfolio for Granite?
Yes. Well, the 2 big ones in Milton are CPI annual increases. I think, there's a couple of more of those, but I think that's about it. The vast majority of them on renewal would move to fair market rent.
Okay. Great. And last one for me is -- actually, no, the question was answered earlier.
And those are the questions we have. I'll turn the call back to you for closing remarks.
All right. Thank you, operator. So on behalf of the trustees and management team here at Granite, thank you again for participating on our call today and to our unitholders, thank you for your continued trust and support. Have a great day.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. We thank you all for your participation. Have a great rest of your day. You may disconnect your line.