Element Fleet Management Corp
TSX:EFN

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Element Fleet Management Corp
TSX:EFN
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Price: 29.61 CAD -0.37% Market Closed
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Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2019-Q1

from 0
Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Element Fleet Management First Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]Element wishes to remind listeners that some of the information in today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on assumptions that are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. The company refers you to the cautionary statements and risk factors of its most recent MD&A and AIF for a description of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although management believes that the expectations reflected in the statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that the expectations of any forward-looking statements will prove to be correct.Element's earnings release, financial statements, MD&A, supplementary information document and today's call include references to non-IFRS measures, which management believes are helpful to present the company and its operations in ways that are useful to investors. A reconciliation of these non-IFRS measures to IFRS measures can be found in the MD&A.I would now like to turn the call over to Jay Forbes, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Thank you, operator, and good morning and thanks to all of you for joining us this morning to discuss our first quarter results, the progress that we're making on our transformation and our latest initiatives to strengthen the business and as we evolve our capital structure.Let me kick things off with a discussion of the core fleet management business, which continues to stabilize and strengthen from the multi-faceted transformation program we launched last October. Building on the success of the quick wins in Q4, we've used the last 3 months to advance improvements to the client experience and to identify and action an additional $12 million of annual run rate profitability improvements as we shift to the basics phase of this transformation program. This brings the cumulative pretax run rate profitability improvements action to date to $70 million, $10 million ahead of plan, positioning us nicely to hit our $100 million of action target on exit from 2019.To give a sense of what type of back to basics initiatives are now underway, they include enhancing our ordering platform to provide a simpler, better and more consistent experience to our clients; upgrading our data and analytics capabilities to improve the quality and processing speed of our systems and generate additional insight for us and for our clients; and for highly repetitive and manual tasks that can only be partially automated, evaluating like showing options to optimize the cost of execution.As importantly, we're seeing the profitability improvements we've actioned flow through to deliver on the bottom line. Initiatives actioned to date will improve Element's adjusted operating income by $52 million in 2019 and approximately $11 million of such improvement was delivered in Q1, slightly better than planned. As you can also see in our supplementary, we have invested a total of $45 million through quarter-end to deliver these benefits, this too are slightly better than planned.As discussed from the outset, our transformation strategy is designed to consistently deliver a superior client experience that will in turn generate $150 million in pretax run rate profitability improvement. And while we're only now wrapping up month 7 of a 27-month journey, the multitude of changes we have made to date are starting to have a very positive impact on the client experience. For instance, we stated last quarter that the worst was over in terms of client attrition. As further evidence of this fact, we didn't lose a single enterprise or mid-market client in March. This was the first month since April 2015 that this has happened.As for new business, we secured client wins in every geography, which again speaks to the compelling nature of the platform and our ability to help our clients better manage their fleets. Fleet assets under management as at the end of the quarter showed increases in the U.S. and Canada on a constant currency basis as well as Mexico. In the U.S. and Canada, we see growth from our core group of larger clients. More broadly across this geographic market, we're holding our own, having arrested the revenue decline, but we still see more work to do as we anticipate growth. To that end, we will begin building our go-to-market strategy to generate that broad-based growth and will share our progress on same in the coming quarters.In Australia and New Zealand, we're pleased with the performance of the business in a softening environment. While our competitors have otherwise been occupied, we've been focused on client acquisition and strengthening our service offering. And finally, we continue to see very strong growth in Mexico as our market leading client experience has allowed us to capture a disproportionate share of that fast growing market of both large local and large multinational clients.While it's too early to declare victory, we have lots of things we want to do to create that consistent ideal experience for our clients. I nonetheless see these data points as clear indications that current and prospective clients are seeing the obvious value of entrusting Element with their fleets and their drivers.Another important milestone in the quarter was the implementation of our balanced scorecard. As I've said previously, the balanced scorecard is really the embodiment of our strategy. Having our people able to see it and see how we're doing is going to be a very powerful tool in terms of enabling us to course correct, allocate resources and make decisions to achieve our strategic goals. We've shared our global balanced scorecard with you this quarter in our MD&A and we look forward to sharing with you how we are scoring on our objectives and metrics on a quarterly basis beginning in another quarter or 2.Regarding our non-core assets, having positioned 19th Capital for runoff and/or a potential sale, it is performing in line with expectations and we received $26 million of cash in the first quarter. The only other significant non-core asset, our interest in ECAF, was successfully sold for proceeds equal to its carrying value of approximately $97 million, in line with the plan we laid out in October. The combined proceeds from 19th Capital and the sale of ECAF will be used to produce the refinancing requirement regarding the 2020 convertible debentures.As we look at what is next, at what is the best capital structure for the company over the longer term, our view is that we would like to reduce the cost of our funding while of course maintaining our ready access to financial markets. Convertible debentures are expensive, and we would like to minimize and ideally eliminate them from our capital structure. We would also like to access unsecured bond markets, including the U.S. unsecured bond market. The latter would entail us securing another investment grade rating from a U.S. agency, and that is predicated on us being able to deleverage our balance sheet.While we know given sufficient time we can work through the investment in our transformation and harvest the gains to achieve a lower leverage ratio, next year's convertible debenture maturity challenge management to surface alternative options to deleverage more quickly in order to create alternative refinancing options. And after extensive analysis of these options, we concluded that if we broadened our use of syndication as a funding tool, we could accelerate the deleveraging process, positioning Element for another investment grade rating and thus access to a broader set of financial instruments.What's more? Syndication has 2 additional and significant benefits. It create a means of managing client concentration limits, while funding the asset growth of 1 large, rapidly growing client, and it generates a whole new and material source of recurring revenue.Let me step you through the first quarter syndication activities as a means of providing some additional color. During the first quarter, we syndicated $488 million of assets. In doing so, we decreased tangible leverage by 5% and generated $17 million in new revenues, all of which fall to the adjusted operating income line. Over coming quarters, we anticipate syndicating approximately $600 million of assets per quarter. These assets will predominantly be new originations but also some existing assets from our balance sheet.In evaluating syndication, as a tool to further strengthen the balance sheet and to lower our cost of capital, we needed to be confident that there will be a strong demand for fleet assets over time and through cycles, that we can originate sufficient assets to maintain our leverage targets, we can earn consistent and predictable transaction fees from syndication and lastly that we have the people, the processes and the systems to support the intended volumes of transactions.Regarding demand, our investor presentation this quarter sets forth data that speaks to both the sizable and sustained appetite for this type of paper in the equipment syndication market. Further, we believe the attributes of our offerings could grow this market further. Moreover, we have a demonstrated track record in being able to further develop markets for our paper. For instance, consider what Element treasury did to establish a deep and robust market for fleet ABS.Regarding supply, we originate more than $6 billion of assets annually, much of this in the U.S. and much of that eligible for syndication. Accordingly, we don't see constraints in our ability to sustain quarterly syndication activity in the $600 million range for the foreseeable future. This is the right volume for us to be able to continue to support the 1 large, rapidly growing client I mentioned earlier, while managing client concentration limits on our balance sheet and accelerate our deleveraging efforts towards evolving our capital structure in the medium term.Our ability to contribute supply to meet the equipment syndication markets' healthy demand for quality assets makes syndication a predictable and sustainable source of transaction fees for Element. This recurring revenue stream increases the company's earning power.Now you may be asking yourself how we can sell an asset without diminishing future income. The answer is that we are selling something, the tax treatment of fleet assets that has no value to us at this time. We can't use it because we have a surplus. We are selling this tax treatment to buyers who can use the asset immediately so they place a value on that asset. So we have established the infrastructure, the people, the processes and the systems to consistently deliver these earnings quarter after quarter. Our confidence in being able to do so is reflected in our addition of syndication revenue as a standalone item on our income statement, and Vito will speak further to that in a moment.Having said all of this, I also want to stress here that we're not moving away from being an on-balance sheet lender. We will continue to fund on our balance sheet and use our asset backed facilities in the US, Canada and Australia to securitize. You may wonder how we will choose which assets go into our ABS facility and which we will syndicate to ensure that we retain the high quality of asset-backed securities in that facility. The answer is that the ABS offering remains key to our funding strategy and so we're very focused on ensuring that ABS offering is of the very highest quality. And I would tell you that we will have more than enough top-flight assets to go around given the high quality of our customer base and the magnitude of originations.Moreover, the facility is rated so the rating agents are keen to ensure the assets remain in top notch. And finally, ABS investors have a great deal of transparency as to what's in that facility. So in syndication, we're adding another programmatic means of funding to our toolkit, while simultaneously deleveraging and enhancing our return on equity.Economically, again, syndication creates for Element another source of quality, recurring, predictable revenue. And you can see that impact in our increased 2020 guidance. Given the stabilized and growing fleet management business, confidence in realizing the full $150 million of profitability improvements to be actioned by the end of 2020 and the positive and sustainable income statement impact we will enjoy from syndication as we accelerate deleveraging, Element is increasing its 2020 guidance on after-tax adjusted operating income per share from $0.90 to $0.95 to a range of $1 to $1.05. Furthermore, we're targeting a return on equity in the range of 13% to 13.5% a tangible leverage ratio below 6x exiting 2020.I'd like to circle back to the topic of capital structure because broadening our use of syndication should enable us to be in a position sooner, all else being equal, to seek an additional investment grade rating from a U.S. agency. That additional investment grade rating should enable us to access new markets for lower cost capital, including potentially the U.S. unsecured debt market, and that ought to improve our funding costs. So syndication gives us a more flexible balance sheet, lower leverage sooner and a source of recurring sustainable revenue right away and in the medium term will pave the way to more economical funding structure for our on-balance sheet business.All of this, as you might appreciate, is powerful recipe for success for Element. Now, no doubt, you'll ask me what the optimal [ pen ] state is, what is the right balance between syndication and our other sources of funding and how that change might change, how does the change with the lower cost of capital added to the mix in due course when we ultimately get there. My answer today is that we have laid out a strategy and a pace that we believe is right for the company at this time, knowing what we know about client concentration limits, our growth pipeline and our resources. If we need or want to flex that up or down, we're confident in our capabilities and the market capacity will be such that we'll be able to do so. As we grow, it is incredibly valuable to have the ability and the optionality to access multiple funding sources. Today, we like having syndication on our menu.With that, I'll turn it over to Vito to talk through our results in more detail for the quarter as well as discuss the new way in which we're presenting our results to reflect how we think about the business and syndication. Vito?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

Thank you, Jay, and good morning, everyone.It's great to be with you this morning to share our Q1 results and further update you on our transformation journey. It's a very exciting and busy time for us, and as Jay has indicated, while much work remains ahead, we are pleased with our progress today.Before jumping into my commentary of the Q1 results, let me take this opportunity to highlight the changes we have made to the presentation and classification of the net revenue section of our P&L.At the highest level, we believe our business disaggregates to 3 distinct revenue streams. They are financing revenue, servicing revenue and now, the emerging syndication revenue. As a result, we made several reclassifications, including reclassification of syndication revenue from service revenue and other to its own line item; reclassification of gain on sale of disposition of equipment under operating leases from service revenue and other to rental revenue and other; reclassification of certain contract costs from interest income to servicing income; and reclassification of certain U.S. financing leases to equipment under operating leases. Additionally, we've modified our geographic locations from the US, Canada and Other to the U.S. and Canada, Australia and New Zealand and thirdly, Mexico, to distinguish between the company's primary locations.The changes in presentation have been applied retrospectively to the 2018 comparative amounts in the balance sheet, income statement, statement of cash flows and the geographic locations disclosed in the following notes to the interim condensed consolidated financial statements. I refer you to the financial statements, MD&A and supplementary information for additional information.Additionally, effective January 1, 2019, we adopted IFRS 16, leases, which increased our assets and liabilities by $80 million for the right of use assets and lease liabilities associated primarily with our real estate leases. The income statement impact is primarily the classification of rent expense moving to depreciation and interest expense. This change in accounting did not require a restatement of prior-year balance sheet or income statement. Therefore, we had an increase of $3.3 million and $600,000 to depreciation expense and interest expense, respectively, with an offset -- with an approximate offset in general and admin expense.Now on to the Q1 results for our core fleet management business. Q1 adjusted operating income from core fleet management business increased 38% from Q1 2018 and 23% from Q4 2018 to $122 million or $0.21 per share after-tax. The strong performance in Q1 was driven by both growth in revenue and reductions in our operating expenses.Net revenue in Q1 was $237.7 million, an increase of $29.3 million or 14% versus prior year. Those increases were driven primarily by a $13 million increase in finance and service revenue attributable to growth in NEA and positive foreign exchange impact and a $16 million increase in syndication revenue.As Jay indicated, during Q1 we expanded the syndication program to reduce our overall leverage and manage customer concentration risk. This resulted in syndicating $488 million in net book value of finance receivables compared to approximately $48 million in Q1 2018. At the time the finance receivables are syndicated, the net book value of the asset is removed from the statement of financial position and the associated revenue and expenses are recognized immediately in the P&L.The $17.2 million of syndication revenue in the current quarter implies a yield greater than 3% against the $488 million assets sold, and while we expect syndication revenue to remain fairly steady over the first 3 quarters and then grow in the fourth quarter of 2019, it's important to note that the yield on these syndicated assets will vary from quarter-to-quarter based on a number of factors, including client mix, asset mix, lease term, et cetera.We have received positive feedback on our supplementary information material and we'll continue to look for ways to provide you more insightful information about the characteristic of Element's business and the progress we are making. In regards to the drivers of the $22.8 million improvement in quarter-over-quarter core AOI, I refer you to the walk we outline in Section 2 of this quarter's supplementary.Turning to our core fleet expenses. Adjusted operating expenses of $115.7 million in Q1 decreased $5.9 million from $121.6 million in Q4 2018 and decreased $4.5 million from $120.2 million in Q1 of 2018. We're pleased with the progress. These reductions primarily reflect the savings from our transformation initiative flowing through to the reporting lines, as we expected.Let's turn briefly now to earning assets. Our total core earning assets at period end were $12.7 billion, a $500 million reduction from the end of calendar year 2018 levels. This of course includes the $488 million reduction related to the syndicated assets, along with a $200 million reduction for changes in foreign exchange levels, offset by net growth representing originations less amortization in all geographies amounting to $200 million.Given the expanded use of syndication as a financing tool, it's important that we pivot to the measurement of assets under management as a key indicator for our business. Accordingly, in Section 3.4 and 3.5 of our supplementary material, you'll find our view of core fleet assets under management for the last 9 quarters. Our aggregate assets under management at the end of Q1 2019 was $15.5 billion, a $100 million increase over the Q4 levels on a constant currency basis.Let me also touch on a couple of other key financial indicators for us moving forward. Our consolidated tangible leverage ratio at the end of Q1 calculated to 7.4x, a reduction from 7.8x at the end of calendar year 2018. The reduction reflects the impact of syndication, coupled with all the other measures we've taken to de-risk our balance sheet thus far. We're targeting a ratio below [ 6.x ] exiting 2020.Our consolidated return on equity at the end of Q1 calculated to 10.9% and our target range is 13% to 13.5% as Jay indicated exiting 2020.And finally, of course, our confidence in a stronger growth profile for the business and the sustainability of our syndication strategy results in an increase to our 2020 aftertax adjusted EPS guidance from $0.90 to $0.95 to $1 to $1.05.Before I hand the call back to Jay, let me take the opportunity on behalf of the entire executive team to thank all the employees at Element across all of our geographies for their incredible commitment, diligence and hard work. Their collective efforts are truly making a difference. Thanks, Jay, and back to you.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Perfect. Thanks, Vito.I will conclude by saying that we're very pleased with our progress on all fronts. We're transforming the core, we're strengthening the balance sheet, we're improving profitability, all in keeping with the commitments that we made to you last October.Let's now open the line to take any questions that you might have. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Paul Holden with CIBC.

P
Paul David Holden

So, Jay, I know you made a number of comments regarding the persistency of syndication. I just wanted to drill down a little bit more so people can get comfort around the quality of that earnings stream. So how do we think about -- or how do you view the perspective on quarter-to-quarter volumes, like what gives you the confidence that you have the insight to know kind of what's coming over the next 3 to 7 quarters?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

In terms of the profile, so firstly, we have good visibility by virtue of having a keen line of sight to that $6 billion of annual originations that the company does. So understanding that which is eligible for syndication has allowed us to profile that over the 12-month period and understand in great level of detail where we can expect that volume to originate and ultimately activate and be eligible for syndication. So both the sustainability, if you will, of that $6 billion and the consistent nature of that $6 billion of origination, coupled with our ability to qualify that and profile that on a monthly basis allows us to understand the supply aspect of this very well. And having been in the market for more than the last 10 years and having a well-established and a growing network of syndication investors, we know there's ample market demand for this type of asset. So marrying those 2 together gives us very good line of sight in terms of syndication revenue profile over any given 4 quarters. In terms of managing expectations, I would also say that we would expect that the first 3 quarters of the year would be relatively similar in terms of the revenue that would be booked with the fourth quarter being larger due to a number of market factors.

P
Paul David Holden

Got it. And then the second question, similar vein, is kind of the persistency of syndication earnings beyond, let's say, your 2020 guidance. There's going to be -- maybe [indiscernible] really just a way of pulling forward earnings and maybe having to give up something in the future, maybe you can address those potential questions as well.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. And -- really, this is all about an economic trade-off, receiving recurring revenue over time versus recurring revenue at a point in time. And so, whether you're talking about securitization or syndication on or off book, there really are essentially 2 primary factors that you need to consider as you assess the viability of either funding strategy, supply and demand. And so when we think about supply, it's actually a factor that is common to both. We need a recurring source of originations to replace the amortizing lease book that drives NIM over time under a securitization program or at a point in time with syndication. And so, again, we come back to, for securitization we have a $6 billion book of -- annual block of originations, much of which would qualify for the various securitization programs that we have in effect. For syndications, we would have approximately half of that $6 billion of global originations available for syndication in the U.S. market. And to that, we'd also add the originations generated by this new large fast growing client whose size requires us to syndicate significant amounts of credit exposure. So, clearly, we have ample supply to feed either of those funding vehicles and that remains consistent across an on-balance sheet or an off-balance sheet funding strategy.

P
Paul David Holden

All right. And then final question from me is related to the tax angle you mentioned. So Element can't currently benefit from additional tax shield, but purchasers of the syndication or participants of the syndication can. Can you share your perspective on when that balance might change, i.e., will there be a point in time when Element could benefit from additional tax shield?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

We have a large and growing tax shield as a consequence of the underlying business dynamics, coupled with our tax planning strategies. And for the foreseeable future, we continue -- would anticipate that that shield would hold and continue to grow.

Operator

The next question comes from Mario Mendonca with TD Securities.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

Can you talk about any risks related to recourse, either that exist contractually or more along the lines of -- is there a situation where you're not legally required to take back the asset but it's simply the right thing to do as we saw in the ABCP market? Do you see any risks like that playing in?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

No material risks of that nature.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

To your knowledge, has there ever been the case, either while you've been there or over time where assets have had to be taken back?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

I'm staring across the table from Karen Martin, our Treasurer, and she has given me no. So I have not encountered any of those instances in my brief tenure with the organization, and in Karen's longstanding nature with the organization she has not encountered anything of that nature either, Mario.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. Maybe -- and this one might be appropriate for Vito as well. Vito, you referred to the assets under management as an appropriate way to look at the company now. And I think I get that because the stuff subject to NII, the assets that you'd earn NII are obviously going to go down as you syndicate. But maybe you could help me understand, then, what sort of management fees do you earn on those syndicated assets?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

Well, we obviously maintain the relationship with the client, which is the most important component, and the service income stream continues with respect to that in addition to any management fees that would be embedded in our original contractual relationships. So what we are syndicating is the interest income component of the contractual relationship with the existing client.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

So, I'm just trying to understand. Are there actually management fees you earn on the amount you call syndicated assets, like specifically related to those syndicated assets? Because--

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

There would be. Each client arrangement has its own peculiarities, if you will, from how the contract is composed. But there would be management fees in many cases, yes.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

And, Mario, maybe for a greater certainty and clarity around that, so -- and perhaps by way of example. If we add a client that we ultimately syndicated 1,000 units -- leases on a 1000 units, we would still service that client in terms of the provision of maintenance, fuel, tolls and licensing, remarketing, et cetera. So we -- as Vito has indicated, we are effectively selling off the lease obligation but maintaining the service contract and the obligations and benefits that accrue with that.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

That makes perfect sense. Those are fees that always existed, I thought. What I'm asking is if there was something -- if there is a new type of management fee that's created from the syndication activity itself. And I get it -- I understand you continue to service the asset. But--

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. No additional management fee, no.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

Okay. No additional management fee besides what you already have, correct?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

That's correct.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

So when I think about how to model this going forward, like, my inclination is just to take the NII down a little bit, but not down because presumably the assets may still grow, but the growth won't be there as -- because you're syndicating it. The syndication obviously goes up a fair bit. What then would you say leads to the increase in your estimate? Is it simply the syndication activity is just a higher yielding or a higher-margin business than the NII?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

That is correct. And again, as you might appreciate, there's a variety of factors that come into play in terms of that pricing as you look at client profile, asset profile, duration of the lease and the tax benefits and the ability of the purchaser to utilize those tax benefits. Those are all key contributors in terms of the yield. And to your point -- and importantly, we should just kind of step back and frame this. Syndication is an enabler of 2 important strategies: an opportunity to reduce concentration risk in terms of a single name, coupled with an opportunity to rapidly de-lever the balance sheet, allowing us access to alternative financing instruments. And the wondrous thing that, as we've spent the last 5 months thinking through and preparing for this, it became readily apparent, not only with both of those important initiatives to be advanced, but this was actually economically attractive, given the pricing dynamics of the marketplace. And again, as indicated, that's a combination of a multitude of factors that include the client mix, asset mix, tax shields, lease term, et cetera.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

Okay. So you kind of hit on the last thing I wanted to talk about. You referred to the benefits from a leverage perspective, and I think I follow that, it lowers the leverage ratio, reduces cost of funds; that makes a lot of sense to me. Where I struggled a little bit was with the ROE number you come up with for Q4 2020 because I can see there is certainly the benefit from an earnings perspective, but getting to 13.5% or 13%, it strikes me that you'd have to do something at the capital structure as well, like there has to be something you would do to the equity to get to that 13.5%. And I -- just because I'm playing with numbers here in my office, and it doesn't seem like you can get there just by growing the earnings number. Does that 13% to 13.5% contemplate something like reducing the equity in some way, the shareholders' equity?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

No, it does not. Now -- and maybe what we'll do is we'll take that under consideration. Maybe there is a waterfall that we could build for the Q2 disclosures. That will give you better visibility on that.

M
Mario Mendonca
MD & Research Analyst

That'd be great because it's a little -- it's challenging to get to that number. I can get close, but not quite there.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Okay.

Operator

Next question comes from Geoff Kwan with RBC Capital Markets.

G
Geoffrey Kwan
Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just, Vito, I know you mentioned with the syndication fee that it can vary quarter-to-quarter because of all these different factors there, but the, call it 3.5%, that was in the first quarter. If you think about it maybe on a normalized basis for the full year, is that where you would think is a reasonable number? Or is it something that might be a little bit higher or lower?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

No, I think the Q1 number is probably at the high end of the range for where we would expect it to be and we would expect on an average basis to be lower than the 3.5%.

G
Geoffrey Kwan
Analyst

Okay, because I think in the other quarters that you gave the information, like, it was kind of in the 2.85% range and year-over-year like it was closer to 2%. I'm guessing the 2% is probably a little bit too low?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

Yes, I think we're going to have to wait and see. We have -- as I said, we gave a fair bit of indication about where we expect the aggregate syndicated revenue to be on a quarter-to-quarter basis; expect to be in that $17 million range in the next few quarters. And then, your rate is dependent on all the factors that we've outlined. So lower than 3.5% perhaps is a safe bet, and we'll just leave it at that, Geoff.

G
Geoffrey Kwan
Analyst

Okay. And then just on the syndication partner demand. I know that you have some slides talking about the size of the market, and you've talked about a little bit already, but just wanting to understand, like, with fees, syndication partners you have, are there kind of agreements you have in place in terms of contracted volume expectations over, let's call it an annual basis? And then also conversely, since you're going to be not tapping the ABS market as much, is that a potential source for you would have had some buyers in that market that might now be syndication partners?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Geoff, we have well established relationships in this equipment syndication markets by virtue of the 10-plus years that we've been active in that market and anticipation of enlarging the size of this program and developing this as a fully functioning funding for the organization. We've been out introducing ourselves and our paper to a larger group of participants in that market. It's a market of, call it 70 to 80 participants, well established and we believe capable of further expansion, given just how good the quality of asset we have on offer. In terms of demand, again, for those that we've had relationships with, they are eager to take on additional paper, given, again, the longstanding relationship and the quality and performance of the underlying asset. And while this isn't a market in which they are able to give long-dated forward commitments, the indications are strong in terms of their appetite and interest in participating.

G
Geoffrey Kwan
Analyst

Okay, perfect. And one last question I had was -- I know you have intentions of getting rid of the converts out of the capital structure and you've got a maturity coming up next year. But how are the converts right now being allocated between the core and the non-core? And does that change at all as you kind of whittle down the non-core part of the business?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

Yes, and the methodology hasn't changed, Geoff, there on how we're allocating effectively. The non-core gets the proportionate share of the converts, as we have in the previous quarters. And clearly, as our non-core winds down, as we reported ECAFs coming out, then all that interest expense will obviously move into the core as we move forward, which is obviously embedded in our 2020 guidance as well.

G
Geoffrey Kwan
Analyst

So, Vito, you said it was -- it's getting allocated on a proportionate basis. I'm assuming based on assets?

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

It's actually 75% of the converts effectively are allocated to non-core. That's a rough range, consistent with previous quarters.

Operator

The next question comes from Jaeme Gloyn with National Bank Financial.

J
Jaeme Gloyn
Analyst

My first question again still down the line of syndication income. So in that 3.5% this quarter, is that only reflecting the gain on sale income? And in this quarter, in Q1, were the syndicated assets sold primarily existing assets or originations?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

So, in terms of the $17 million of revenue recognized in quarter was indeed the revenue generated on the syndication of $488 million worth of assets, and in terms of the composition of that, we would have drawn from existing book as well as new originations as we ramp up the program. And as I commented in reply to Paul's question earlier, we would expect, given the $6 billion of annual originations and half of those being eligible for syndication as we ramp this program up, it will be largely just drawing from new originations.

J
Jaeme Gloyn
Analyst

Okay. So I would interpret that to mean that in this quarter, it was more 50-50 between existing originations or even tilted more heavily toward existing assets.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

I'll leave the assumptions to you.

J
Jaeme Gloyn
Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And then in terms of the target or the goal to acquire a second U.S. credit rating, can you talk about what are the major criteria in achieving that outcome? Is it simply just the tangible leverage ratio? Or are there other factors that we should think about as you go down that path?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

We wish it was just one factor. There is a multitude of factors and problematically, they vary greatly, whether you're talking about a Fitch and Moody's or an S&P. And so we have a good understanding of the expectations and requirements. And while a lot will bear heavily on the decision process of each one of those rating agencies, certainly tangible leverage is a -- or a derivative thereof is a very important area of focus. And so as Vito has communicated, we have targeted to be sub-6x tangible leverage on exited 2020, and obviously we believe that as a basis of any calculation that a Moody's or an S&P would make would be satisfactory in terms of meeting that particular hurdle. But I would caution you that there are a multitude of factors to be considered.

J
Jaeme Gloyn
Analyst

I guess would you be able to share what are the kind of number 2 and number 3 factors that you would be focused on in terms of achieving?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

I'd be willing to share that we have a good understanding of those and are comfortable that we're on the right track to address those to the satisfaction of the rating agencies in line with the timelines that we have communicated regarding achievement of another investment-grade rating.

J
Jaeme Gloyn
Analyst

Okay. And then on the same topic, as we look out further beyond 2020, where do you expect to see tangible leverage, let's say, on a run rate basis? Is it right at that 6x level? Or do you see that trending lower?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes, we believe, we want to be at sub-6 and, like, it gives us 7 quarters to achieve that. And again, given the progression that we're seeing in the core business, given the success that we're enjoying in the transformation of the business, coupled with the plan of action that we have for syndication, we think that's well in hand.

Operator

Next question comes from Tom MacKinnon with BMO Capital.

T
Tom MacKinnon
MD & Analyst

Just a couple of questions again with respect to syndication. Just from your customers' perspective, what's their view? Does it really matter to them? They just pay lease payment, you just pass it through and pay it to these people that you syndicate everything else to? Is that the way it would work? And does it matter to them?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Good morning, Tom. Ultimately, when we work with our clients, one of the overriding considerations and areas of focus for them is total cost of ownership and driving down that total cost of ownership. And with the amortization cost being one of the more significant costs they're constantly looking for ways to drive that down, and whether that's lower acquisition costs, higher remarketing costs or lower interest rates on the financing, those are primarily the 3 levers that you have available to you to effect economies around that aspect of the total cost of ownership. And so us being able to offer them a better cost of capital by virtue of enlarging the funding sources that are available to the business would be seen as a positive and enabling them to reduce that total cost of ownership.

T
Tom MacKinnon
MD & Analyst

And then you talked about pricing dynamics with respect to syndicating these assets. Can you elaborate on how this market has trended, what are the key risks, what drives it and why you think it's favorable now?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. And so I would say to you, demand has been very stable and very strong in this particular market. And even when we saw demand apparently dwindle, contract during the economic crisis, that was more, as we understand it, an issue of supply versus demand. There was healthy interest and active market but there weren't as many originations to be syndicated. So we think that there is a strong stable and we believe an opportunity to grow demand in this market. In terms of pricing, and not wishing to be the least bit evasive here, it is entirely dependent and varies meaningfully based on client mix and the name and creditworthiness of those clients as well as even client concentration. It varies in terms of asset mix and the nature of that asset and how much [ up-fitting ] and uniqueness that asset has, the term of the lease, how many payments are left and, again, the ability for the buyer to make use of tax benefits that accrue with buying that asset. So it is actually quite amazing to see how that can vary depending on those factors, and again, it gives us great peace of mind that we have been doing this as long as we have, have developed that knowledge and are thus able to quite accurately determine which assets will yield the best margins for this business as we think about syndication versus securitization.

V
Vito Culmone
Executive VP & CFO

And Tom, maybe I'll just add. I mean, the very characteristics that make it attractive for securitization, which are the quality of the underlying assets and obviously the quality of our client base, make it equally attractive from a syndication perspective.

T
Tom MacKinnon
MD & Analyst

Yes, it sounds that way. And as you step up your efforts in this, is there any impact on OpEx?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

No. It will be marginal compared to the revenue lift that we're seeing. An incremental person or 2, but again, the processes and systems are in place to manage this and are readily scalable.

T
Tom MacKinnon
MD & Analyst

And then finally, you go over 2 year -- last couple of MD&As and could hardly even find the 3 letters, R-O-E, and now you put it into a slide show with a guidance on it. So you are becoming I guess more of a fee-type company as you move to syndication and you do have a lot of other service type fees. Is this a metric that matters to you, ROE? Is it -- the rating agencies care about it? Or so we just focus more on why put it out there, so we just focus more on the EPS?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Tom, I think it is a metric that does indeed matter to us as we think about capital allocation on behalf of our shareholders. So yes, it is absolutely a matter -- a measure that matters. And to that end, it is a measure, 1 of 4 financial measures that comprise our balanced scorecard for this organization. So gives you an idea as to the criticality of it from management's point of view. And again, ROE, like other metrics and other information that we're putting in the supplemental is quite honestly designed to give you, our investment community, full view as to the business, how we're thinking about the business and the dynamics of the business. So yes, we are providing more of a spotlight on that. We're introducing assets under management. Again, just to try and give you greater transparency as to how we're thinking about the business and how the business model is evolving. You might remember in a previous call I had mentioned to you one of the fascinating things about transforming an organization is you have your game plan, you're executing that game plan, then you're building momentum, you're achieving success and lo and behold, you start to see other opportunities to view the business differently by virtue of the new perspectives and the new successes that you are enjoying. And syndication, a tool that we've used and deployed for many years, was sitting there effectively idle relative to the utility that we could derive from it as we start to think about the long-term evolution of the capital structure, reducing our cost of capital, addressing single credit risk. So it's things like that that again are a delightful byproduct of the current thrust of this plan. And so as we discover these different opportunities to add value and as those means of adding value start to morph our view of the business, we want to try and share that with you in real time through the provision of supplementary information in that companion document.

T
Tom MacKinnon
MD & Analyst

Okay. And this will be my last. When you mentioned 4 financial measures of which ROE is one, what are the others? Is it maybe EPS, AUM [indiscernible] others?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. EPS is one, leverage is one, ROE is one and the fourth is actually a metric under construction. It's our enterprise risk [ index ]. And so one of the references that we made in the MD&A to the balanced scorecard is we want to earn an appropriate risk adjusted return. We think it important, given the nature of our business that the organization in its totality has an appreciation for risk, what is inherent in the business model and thus making a conscious decision as to how we mitigate and manage that risk exposure of the organization. So Vito and his team are working on that as the fourth metric as we think about our investors and how to best serve our investors in terms of long-term shareholder value creation.

Operator

Next question is from (technical difficulty).

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

So I wanted to start with the impact of syndication on the net interest margin for the remaining on balance sheet finance receivables. A bunch of moving parts, but do we think of this as a lower proportion is funded via the Chesapeake facilities such that we would expect margin compression? Or are there other things to think about there?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. We're not giving specific guidance in terms of NIM. As we go forward, I'll say we spin our tradition established last October -- we'll put that stake out in terms of 2020 and adjusted EPS and then try and provide you as much visibility on the components in our full compendium of disclosures.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

Okay. And as Mexico becomes a larger part of the business, can you then maybe tell us where this [ regional ] NIM then ranks relative to the U.S. business?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

We don't disclose that level of detail. I will say that just really, really impressed with the job that David and his team are doing there. They've invested heavily over the years in terms of the relationships with existing clients as well as prospective clients, and that's just paying off for them brilliantly as they capture a disproportionate share of a very fast growing market.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

Okay. And as we think about the components of syndication revenue, you mentioned you're selling the net interest margin, you're selling the credit exposure, you're selling the tax shields. How do we think about those proportionate amounts as they translate into the yields that your purchasing partner is earning? And I think in the past you've mentioned amortization of purchase discount in there. Is there room for that to expand as your overall volumes increase?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. And you are correct in terms of what would comprise that syndication revenue stream. That said, again, I'll come back to -- it will be totally dependent on the client, the asset mix, the lease term, the lease interest rate, the tax benefits and their ability to be utilized by the acquirer. There's just so many factors that come into play. And again, I was quite surprised by how inconsistent the pricing was given, just how variable each one of those different attributes would be and how they would be considered by the purchaser. So that's a level of detail that at this point in time, that we have chosen not to disclose [indiscernible] the more high-level guidance in terms of our progression over the first 3 quarters and what we would generally expect to happen in the fourth quarter.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

Okay. And the large customer that you've made reference to, is this customer strictly utilizing finance service? Or are they using service revenues from you guys as well?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

So, many of our clients request anonymity in terms of our dealings, and this happens to be one of them. So I'll refrain from offering any commentary.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

Okay. And then switching gears to the profitability improvements. You referenced building internal capabilities. Could you just flush out the details on what you see as the opportunity there? How you expect to be more efficient doing it in-house? Do you think that serves to get you deeper penetration with some of your big clients?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. In terms of a productivity strategy for us, we're looking at all the levers available to us as exemplified by some of the actions that have been taken in quick wins as well as early actions under our back to basics program for 2019. And again, for us there was for instance a fair amount of IP that ended up getting outsourced to IT service providers as they worked on coding for us on different applications. We're looking at opportunities to bring aspects of that coding back in-house, aspects of certainly the management of that function back in-house to take full ownership of the IP surrounding our applications and where possible to reduce the total cost; so, again, looking at this from a number of perspectives with productivity being an overarching ambition for us.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

So that would -- we should think of that as sort of a complementary functionality versus potentially in-housing some components of your service revenue offerings?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

That is correct, yes. So this would have been a -- yes, support costs that would have been provided through third parties being repatriated in some way, shape or fashion to lower costs and to have tighter alignment in terms of the execution of responsibilities in particular areas. This would not be about reaching down the value chain and starting to take on some functionality that third-party strategic suppliers are providing as part of our client value proposition.

B
Brenna Phelan
Equity Analyst

Okay, very helpful. And then last one from me. When you're thinking about your capital structure, and now you reference converts a few times as really not featuring in a long-term structure. How are you thinking about preferred shares?

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. So preferred shares, at this particular juncture, are a key component of our capital structure. A favorable treatment by the rating agencies is helpful and so we don't see any material change in terms of our [ for ] preferred shares as a component of our capital structure for the foreseeable future.

Operator

Next question comes from John Aiken with Barclays.

J
John Aiken
Director & Senior Analyst

Good morning. I appreciate you taking my questions since we're over the hour. Hopefully, it'd be reasonably brief. In terms of the originations in the quarter, you talked about the better client retention. But can you give us a little bit of color around that in the quarter? And Jay, in reference to the syndications, you talked about $6 billion in terms of originations. I'm assuming that's backward looking as opposed to what you're looking for prospectively given the originations that you got this quarter annualized as well above the $6 billion.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Yes. Good morning, John, and you're right. In terms of the $6 billion, that is typically what we have been doing in any given year, and of course this year, with the addition of this new fast growing client, we would expect originations to grow accordingly. And in terms of client attrition, again, as we shared with you last quarter, the worst of client attrition is well behind us, and Q1 provided us with even more confidence in terms of that realization. The fact that there wasn't a loss of a single enterprise or mid-market client in March was really quite extraordinary, and the processes that we have put in place to identify at-risk clients and to address those underlying issues that have put them at risk has seen us continue to make month-over-month material reductions in that number. So, delighted with the view that we have been able to build in terms of which clients are at risk. Couldn't be more pleased with the insights that that is providing us in terms of how we can create a better, more consistent experience. And then the remediation efforts that the organization has put in place to address those, solve those and to maintain those clients has really been quite extraordinary. So very, very pleased. And again, as I will always caution, this is a 2-year journey and we're merely at the first few innings of it. But again, delighted with the progress that I'm seeing.

Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. We apologize for the lack of time to take additional questions. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Forbes for any closing remarks.

J
Jay A. Forbes
CEO, President & Executive Director

Again, sorry that we have to wrap up. We're running over to our Annual General Meeting, but indeed, Mike and Scott will be available for any follow-on questions that you might have. Otherwise, again thanks ever so much for making the time to join us here this morning.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.