EcoSynthetix Inc

TSX:ECO

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the EcoSynthetix 2022 Fourth Quarter and Year-End Results Conference Call. [ Operator Instructions ]Listeners are reminded that portions of today's discussion may contain forward-looking statements that reflect current views with respect to future events. Any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on EcoSynthetix's risks and uncertainties related to these forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's annual information form dated February 28, 2023, which is posed on CEDAR. This morning's call is being recorded on Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Jeff MacDonald, Chief Executive Officer of EcoSynthetix. Please go ahead, sir.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Thank you. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us today. Yesterday afternoon, we released our 2022 fourth quarter and year-end results, which you can find on our website at ecosynthetix.com. You can also download a copy of the slides that accompany today's call from our website or alternatively access them on the webcast.Net sales were up 15% in Q4 to $5.6 million. As we mentioned on the Q3 call, the fourth quarter was impacted by ongoing supply chain challenges for feedstock and pricing dynamics in graphic paper, which I'll address in a moment. Adjusted EBITDA loss was $300,000, unchanged from the prior period. We've had a number of recent positive developments in the business that give us confidence in our ability to capitalize on the opportunity in front of us. Goal setting is one method that we use internally to unify the team and measure success. Given the progress we're making with our multiple shots on goal commercialization strategy and the breadth of our biopolymer platform to address a range of end markets. The next goal we've set is transitioning from an approximate $20 million a year business to $100 million a year 1 within 3 to 5 years.We believe we have the right offering with our biopolymers and the right partners and customers to achieve this goal. We're already working with the right accounts. Our existing key customers that we're already live with today, which you can see here on Slide 4, represent an opportunity which exceeds the $100 million target. That's with no new customer wins, and of course, we still intend to win new accounts, which I'll speak to in a moment.So how do we get there? Well, it's not a straight line. There are puts and takes, and we're experiencing some of those and working through them. Let's start with some of the highlights. In the wood composites end market, we recently announced that our key strategic account, which is a manufacturer of wood panels as a backward integrated producer for a leading international retailer has committed to a meaningful step forward in its implementation of DuraBind at its first plant. This new step comes after we saw a doubling of volumes from this customer in 2022 versus 2021. They have committed to expanded usage at the plant again in 2023. This first line of the key strategic account represents an opportunity at the high end of the typical $500,000 to $3 million revenue opportunity per line. We're already within that range today, and we believe it could represent an even larger opportunity than that.When we initially set the $100 million target, we expected the wood composites end market to play the key role in achieving it. But the market has not moved as quickly as we anticipated to date. Momentum and growth from wood composites has been slower than we expected. The opportunity presented by our key customers remains as significant, but the pace makes it difficult for us to pin down how much and when.All of the challenges that people and companies around the world are facing has led to less urgency for healthier and more sustainable materials in this space. However, consumer concern remains high and the sustainability agendas of key companies remain a priority. The demand and commitment are there, and it is a question of when and not if.We believe that this recent news from the strategic account can act as a catalyst that accelerates their pace and confirms this as a priority for the broader industry. This leading retailer and manufacturer has taken the view that sustainability and improving their carbon footprint is the right thing to do. They have a track record of step-by-step replacement of hazardous chemicals with healthier or more sustainable alternatives throughout their history. They're committed to leading, showing others that it can be done with similar economics. We believe their leadership can be the biggest catalyst for others, both manufacturers and their supply chain and competitors in the market to follow through and build their businesses off of doing the right thing. And we have now proven that we can support this change with similar or even favorable economics.In February, the key strategic account published their 2022 climate report. In it, they identify glues used for their wood-based materials, representing approximately 5% of their overall climate footprint. They believe moving to bio-based glues is a key enabler toward achieving their 2030 climate targets. DuraBind is used in the production of particleboard at this manufacturer and particleboard represents 55% of this retailer's wood-based material by weight, which they partially source from their own manufacturing base, but they source the majority from independent third-party suppliers, which represents some of the largest particleboard manufacturers globally. Their consistency and emphasis on bio-based solutions for wood glues brings clarity to their supplier base, and we believe it opens up more opportunity for us.Our commitment to R&D and product development has given us the product portfolio that we believe allows us to stay on target for the $100 million goal, in particular, with the progress we've made in the wet end manufacturing of tissue, paperboard, pulp and paper. We've won 3 new accounts to date in this new vertical, including one of the largest global manufacturers of paperboard. Initially, we were managing their expectations given the availability of feedstock supply. We wanted to ensure that once they started full production, we had sufficient inventory on hand to continuously meet their demand. We've managed to source the raw material and organize our supply chain to build the inventory to support them. With this progress, we expected volumes with this leading manufacturer to ramp more quickly at the end of 2022, but they've dealt with a number of challenges in their own operations and market, unrelated to their work with Surflock. There is a strong belief within their organization of the economic benefit Surfloc can provide them from a profitability profile. This manufacturer has 10 to 15 mills. We're commercial at 1 mill with them today, and each paperboard mill represents a $3 million to $5 million opportunity annually. Despite their delays, they have seen enough to be convinced of the value we offer and are already investing in trials with our Surfloc strength aids on a second line. You can see the impact that broader adoption across a range of their mills can have on our $100 million target. And that's from just the one manufacturer. So that's on the paperboard side.On tissue end market wins, we've seen that these are typically smaller opportunities in terms of volume from a revenue perspective in the hundreds of thousands of dollars per mill annually. We've also seen that these manufacturers can move more quickly to qualify and adopt Surfloc, which is a great benefit in terms of our momentum. Our long-standing relationships in the graphic paper market are helping to support our discussions in the wet end market, in many cases with the same companies. While it is typically different individual contacts we're calling on to introduce Surfloc, we're already known within the corporate organization.We're commercial with 6 of the largest global forestry and paper companies today. Those relationships are working in our favor, and it has proven important as these customers diversify into new applications and look towards Surfloc to help with their journey. One of the challenges we faced in the past 18 months is the legacy graphic paper market served by our original EcoSphere product line. The erosion of volumes in this market has happened more quickly than we expected. The progress we've made with wood composites and the wet end as well as our ability to pass through price increases have replaced those losses in graphic paper, but barely. We're not getting ahead.Historically, EcoSphere offered graphic paper manufacturers are more cost-effective alternative to the petroleum-based binder it replaces SB latex. Typically, EcoSphere offers a 15% savings to SB latex. Paper manufacturers that went commercial with us could withstand periods of tightening between that cost differential, but they were looking for savings on a consistent basis. The supply chain constraints have had a major impact in this end market. SB latex pricing has come off its highs as oil prices have declined, while at the same time, feedstock availability on corn and starch are causing higher costs for our products.Generally, $70 to $80 a barrel oil has been a good scenario for us and our value proposition is expected to recover as starch costs normalize. However, today, we've reached a crossover point, where EcoSphere is now the same price or higher than SB latex at just about every customer. 5 years ago if we were in this position, our graphic paper volumes would have gone to almost 0. We've been able to maintain commercial relationships due to market consolidation helping some of our accounts and the commitment to a green profile at other accounts, but it's been a challenge.Up through the fourth quarter, we've been able to offset this erosion in graphic paper. It will be tougher from a top line perspective in the first quarter of 2023 as it's been a challenging start to the year. A number of factors are contributing to a step down in demand across many of our core end markets. #1, as I just mentioned, the continued demand attrition in the graphic paper market is being exacerbated by the first signs that our elevated costs and pricing are impacting demand from existing customers. #2, after a solid Q4 with a key graphic paper distributor, signs of weakening demand in their market and inventory destocking is expected to result in softer orders for EcoSphere in Q1. The #3, and lastly, general weakness in the packaging market in Europe is resulting in temporary shutdowns to start the year, and this lower order demand is impacting our new Surflock customer.Amidst this market slowdown, in addition to trialing at a new line with this account, we have continued to expand our introduction and trialing program for Surflock globally with good reception and early testing results. And we're confident in our ability to endure and overcome these demand trends. They are headwinds in the short term, no doubt, but we wanted to be transparent with investors on how the market has shaped up in the first 2 months of 2023.On the personal care front, we continue to work with our marketing and development partner, Dow. Dow has high confidence in its ability to make a material impact on the $460 million hair fixative end market with the all-natural ingredients we've brought to market together. While we are commercial today and earning revenue, Dow still sees this program as very early stage in our work with them with a much larger opportunity in front of us as an all-natural film former in personal care. They're excited by the industry recognition they continue to receive with the top 100 R&D award and the sustainability Product of the Year for MaizeCare. They believe the characteristics of an all-natural formulation offer them a huge opportunity in personal care, and that's what they're sticking their stake in.We are starting to see positive developments on the supply chain front. Feedstock availability is improving. Pricing remains elevated for the cornstarch we use, which you can see in the inventory we're carrying. The inventory we hold today is as expensive as we've ever held, but we're working through it. The introduction of some of our new products has also led to a more complex and longer supply chain as we work through the launch of these new products. But we are taking steps to simplify, shorten and optimize our supply chain as noted in our press release this week regarding our capacity plans, which I'll discuss shortly.We've been consistent in our approach towards the supply chain challenges. We decided that feedstock availability would not inhibit relationships with existing accounts. We also decided that we would not offer discounts to the increased cost of feedstock, and we've kept these commitments, which is a big part of the story on graphic paper. The benefit of a renewable commodity market is the supply-demand dynamics work themselves out through the course of growing season cycles. We expect the pricing pressure to ease as more supply comes online in the third quarter of 2023. We're also seeing new feedstock suppliers come to market beyond the traditional globally integrated large agricultural producers. These new players are being very aggressive in wanting to serve us with their incremental capacity. So we're optimistic that improvements are coming on the feedstock availability and cost side. At the same time, we continue to make progress on our work with alternative feedstocks to corn. We've long established our capabilities to work with alternative feedstocks at benchtop scale. Taking benchtop work to industrial scale is another matter altogether.Our team has done a great job of sourcing and developing the proper manufacturing practices and then taking that feedstock all the way through with one of our key applications to prove out the use of this alternative feedstock at commercial scale with the customer. We're not naming the alternative feedstock for competitive reasons, but it is readily available at similar price points historically to cornstarch.As we prepare for higher growth, we're making conscious decisions to take more control of our own destiny and provide ourselves with greater flexibility. Our work with the alternative feedstock is one example of this strategy. This work is helpful in the short and long term as a hedge on our dependence on corn. Earlier this week, we also announced modifications and investments in our North American and European asset bases. We intend to internalize our North American production at our center of innovation here in Burlington. We'll be installing a new line with a nameplate capacity of up to 30 million pounds of annualized production. We expect the line to be commissioned by the end of 2023.By internalizing production, we'll gain more control of the manufacturing process as we launch new products, win new accounts and grow usage with our existing accounts. This investment will be in a new, highly productive asset. While it's smaller, we'll start by using only a fraction of its nameplate capacity, which gives us room to grow into it and then to make strategic decisions on where to place additional manufacturing capacity as we grow further. As important, it gives us full flexibility and control to scale up and optimize our new products, which had been a constraint for us in North America.In Europe, we're upgrading our manufacturing infrastructure to enable flexibility in supply chain options at our toll manufacturing partners facility in Europe. This facility has a dedicated production line with nameplate capacity of up to 80 million pounds. In addition, these upgrades also give us greater access to an additional variable capacity line with capacity of up to 40 million pounds at this facility, which will help to support our specialty grades. These investments will require approximately $2.9 million in capital, which demonstrates the capital efficiency of our continuous extrusion manufacturing process. With the growing importance of supply chain management, these capital investments provide us greater flexibility and an improved cost position to meet customer demand.And with that, I'll turn it over to Rob to review the financials. Rob?

[Robert Haire, executive]

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning. Net sales were $5.6 million in Q4 2022, up 15% compared to the same period in 2021. The improvement was due to higher average selling price, which impacted sales $1.1 million or 23%, which was partially offset by lower volumes, which impacted sales by $400,000 or 8%. The higher average selling price in the quarter was due to offsetting a significant inflationary pressures with price increases. The decrease in volumes in the quarter was due to a continuation of unfavorable market conditions.Net sales were $19 million in 2022, an increase of 5% compared to 2021. The improvement was due to higher average selling price of $5 million or 28%, which was offset by lower volumes of $4.2 million or 23%. Gross profit was $900,000 in the quarter, a decrease of $90,000 from the prior period. In the annual period, gross profit was $4.2 million, up 5% or $180,000 compared to 2021. In both periods, a higher average selling price was offset by a decrease in sales volume and the rising cost of manufacturing.Net of manufacturing depreciation, gross profit as a percentage of sales was 21.4% in the quarter compared to 24.8% in the same period in 2021. In the annual period, gross profit net of depreciation was 25.5% compared to 26.2% in 2021. Higher costs raw materials impacted the cash margin profile overall. We expect this impact to continue in the first half of 2023 based on what we're seeing in the market today. We also expect lower gross margins in 2023 due to the $1 million noncash accelerated depreciation charges related to the exit of our U.S. toll production facility announced this week, which will result in higher depreciation than normal in our cost of good -- in the cost of sales throughout the year.SG&A expenses were $1.3 million in the quarter, a decrease of $200,000 compared to the same period in 2021. This improvement was primarily due to lower salaries and benefits of $200,000 due to a reduction in variable compensation. For the annual period, SG&A expenses were $5.1 million, a decrease of $250,000 primarily due to lower variable compensation expenses of $600,000, partially offset by $400,000 increase in other SG&A expenses.R&D expenses were $560,000 and $1.9 million in the quarterly and annual periods compared to $470,000 and $1.8 million in the corresponding periods in 2021. R&D expense as a percentage of sales was 10% in each period, which is comparable to the corresponding periods of 2021. We continue to invest in innovation to improve our value proposition and expand our addressable market opportunities.Adjusted EBITDA loss was $340,000 and $880,000 in the quarterly and annual periods, respectively, which is flat to the same period in 2021. Cash used in operating activities was $1.2 million in the quarter compared to cash provided by operating activities of $290,000 in the prior period. In the annual period, cash used in operating activities was $4.9 million compared to cash provided by operating activities of $500,000 in 2021. Our cash used in operating activities changed significantly as we invested $4 million in additional working capital in 2022, including $3.1 million in additional inventory. This is part of our strategy that Jeff mentioned to ensure adequate feedstock for existing customers and our growth opportunities as well as the higher cost for our feedstock.As of December 31, 2022, we had $36 million in cash and term deposits compared to $42.2 million as of December 31, 2021. The $6.2 million change was due to to a $3.1 million increase in inventory as well as an increase in accounts receivable of 1 and $2.2 million of cash used to purchase 626,400 shares through our NCIB at an average price of CAD4.64 per share. We have demonstrated our ability to responsibly manage our cash reserves through multiple cycles while continuing to invest in our long-term growth strategy.With that, I'll turn it back to Jeff for closing comments.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Thanks, Rob. We continue to make progress on the 3 end markets where we are positioned for strong growth, wood composites, the wet end of tissue, paperboard, pulp and paper and personal care. The erosion of demand in the legacy graphic paper market has happened faster than we expected, which is depressed volumes and net sales. That trend has continued into the first half of 2023 given the pricing dynamics of SB latex.The availability of raw materials is slowly improving and we're optimistic on the outlook for the second half of 2023 in terms of both availability and pricing. We believe we can demonstrate strong growth with the commitment from our key strategic account in wood composites to expand usage in 2023, and the momentum we're seeing from the large global packaging, paperboard and tissue opportunities with our strength base. We're working with the right customers and partners to deliver on our $100 million target. We appreciate the trust and the patience that our shareholders have shown, and I look forward to updating you further as we make progress.With that, I'll turn it back to the operator and open up the call for questions. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. [ Operator Instructions ] Your first question comes from Brian Morrison, Private Investor. Please go ahead.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Hey, good morning, Jeff. Goof morning, Rob.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Good morning, Brian.

[Robert Haire, executive]

Good morning.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Jeff, I appreciate the slide on route to $100 million, also the confidence to get there and also your color on input diversification. But I still have a number of questions here. So can we start with wood products. You did cover it well, but you put out a press release last week on a certain customer. And then just this morning, there's a Wall Street journal article that talks about IKEA lowering clue in the particle board. So is it fair to say that these 2 overlap nicely? And then with this improving commitment that you addressed, what visibility do you have on the pace of this customer expanding its resin and expansion into other internal and external lines?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. Good question, Brian. And I would just say on a general level, the news in the Wall Street Journal about IKEA's commitment to bio-based resins is great news. We have -- we obviously have agreements with them that govern what we can and can't say. They are aware of and have supported the fact that people understand and know that we're working together, but they have asked us not to disclose details of exactly what and where and how much we're doing together. So we have to respect that. They are a customer and that's why we represent them the way that we do in sessions like we're going through right now.We -- as I noted in the script, we did double our revenues with that account in the last year. And we expect that with this further step, we anticipate at least another doubling of that in the coming year. But I think the halo effect that they have on the rest of the industry with the kind of statements that they've made this morning is at least as important to that. I think more than ever before they've shown their teeth and their direction in moving ahead with bio-based resins and sticking to their commitments. So I just see it as extremely positive.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Okay. I appreciate that. [ Indiscernible ] on that name. I guess more importantly, can you hear me, okay?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes, I can.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

So more importantly, I'm trying to understand the relationship with your commercial web and packaging board company. Last quarter, you said that they're working to maintain their strategic advantage. So first, is it fair to assume that this advantage you would refer to is time. And so how quickly could they potentially move forward with multiple lines? And then second, are you giving them the most favored nation status because of their size or commitment to date? Or could another major account come in tomorrow?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. So let me answer the second one first. We have not offered them or anyone any kind of a head start or a favored nation of any kind in this market. We think we have something that's universally applicable that we put a lot of money into developing and we haven't committed to exclusivity with anyone. No one has partnered with us substantially enough to warrant that.That said, this account got started first. They did a lot of early work. It was a fast program, but it still took over a year to get to the position they're at. So they have that head start. We know that their interest in capitalizing on that head start as evidenced by despite the slowdown they're seeing in their market and their customers destocking their inventory and therefore them destocking their inventory, they found ways to go ahead with trialing program -- a trialing program on their second line. And I think that's a natural second step. Despite the great results, I think everybody always wants to see the second data point to begin to draw a line through those data points and say, yes, we have a trend here that's now worth driving through our whole organization. So that second one is really important.Just to note, though, we actually have already achieved the replication point, the second point with one of our tissue customers. So that gives everybody who's looking at this, I think a vote of confidence that it's not sort of a mill-by-mill situation that this looks like it is strongly and widely applicable. How fast could they ramp? It's really hard to say. But I think if they see the kind of results that they've seen on the first line on the second line and they get some commercial traction as they get their mill back up and running after a shutdown, I think we'll quickly see them begin to introduce this to other lines as well. And we've seen on the first line, it took them just over a year for implementation. It's clearly going to take them less time on the second line. So that could be a relatively quick ramp.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Okay. I want to stick with the wet end, I think part of the supply chain. And I do think that investors underappreciate the impact of the supply chain had on you, but you had been trialing with 8 wet end customers you had previously said. And then you curbed these trials due to lack of starch availability. So the question is, are you now actively soliciting demand once again? And if so, how many wet end customers are trialing and can we expect some of these trialing to become commercial and meaningful this year?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes, good question. So I did try to allude to that in the script, but let me give it maybe a little more clearly. So you had it right on. We had about 8 trialing programs in progress that we were committed to, and we felt we had access to enough material to at least support trial programs, but we curbed introducing the product into new geographies and with we curbed introducing it to new major accounts. That changed as we came into 2023 and saw the availability of material as no longer being a constraint. Price is still tight, but availability was not. And so we began to expand that program of introduction. So it is fair to say that the 8 that were in flight have continued to make progress, and there's really strong commitment there. Those have moved further along. But I'll put the caveat there that with almost all of them, the slowdown in demand for their products has had no closures at several of these customers. So it's been a little bit harder to get time online as a result of that. But the conviction remains there and progress, I would say, at each one of them in some way. But I think more importantly to the sort of next step in the pipeline, we really broadened out our introduction to customers and partners in the Americas into Asia just in the last 1.5 months. So confidence is there in the supply chain and the product performance that we're beginning to build a pipeline that supports our confidence in it.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

So how many are you trialing with now?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. I'd keep it to the 8 that are in good flight that we've talked about before. The others are earlier introductions, but the pipeline is broadening.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Okay. And then I guess, just when I take a look at this bridge to $100 million, it looks like it comes from 5 customers alone. The mix has changed. I think you said the timing hasn't. I mean it looks like 1/3 to half of that could be generated from just one merged wet end customer loan. So is the goal on this vertical as well? Is it a question of when, not if. But maybe just walk me through this bridge to $100 million in sales. And is it fair to say wet end will be the most near-term contributor to sales acceleration?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

I think you just walked us through it. So yes, we're not coming off the time line, and that's primarily because of the confidence we have in the wet end accounts and the product performance that we've seen. It sounds like your dog is excited about our progress as well... But we.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

I apologize.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

No, that's okay. We definitely see, as you said, that one of these accounts can contribute 1/3 of the $100 million on its own. So that, of course, gives us great confidence and the customer that we've gotten started with in the packaging side is capable of delivering that kind of scale. And we -- I don't want to completely come off of the wood composite contribution, both the commitment that our large key strategic account has made and the halo effect on them. I mean that --0 their supply chain, internal and what they source from others represents about 17 lines of capacity, which just for them represents a $60 million opportunity for us. So big chunks are there for harvesting. And as you said, to sum it up, I would sum it up exactly the same way. It's a question of when, not if.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

So are you ramping up inventory? I mean I see that it's gone substantially at the year-end. Corn prices prices have now broken to the downside. Hopefully, starch will follow. But are you further increasing inventory in advance to meet your demand post Q1 and into the second half of the year?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes, we're not going to go crazy. And I definitely -- especially given the slowdown in the packaging market in Europe, I definitely want to see some of that inventory flowing before we commit to a much more significant ramp in inventory to support the growth in front of us. But we're not afraid to buy forward as we've shown to make sure that we have product that's there ahead of the demand coming. But we've got a pretty substantial chunk of inventory sitting there, waiting to meet the demand that we see today.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

Okay. Last question, I don't want to dominate the call here. You talked about your production capacity and reducing complexity and cost. I'm just curious with the revised capacity, what can you achieve in terms of annual sales? And you also said you're valuing other capacity. So it sounds like with your growing global customer base trialing that your value in other facilities outside of Europe and North America, how much sales commitment would you need to do so?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. I think despite the fact that the North American asset base will have smaller capacity than what we've had installed. One thing to keep in mind, I mean we did add access to additional capacity in Europe. So the grand total is not too far off where we were before in terms of pounds of production, but the value per pound of production, especially with the wet end strength has gone up meaningfully. So we've said before that the asset base can get us north of $100 million in revenue, and that's still the case today. Any global -- any further global expansion of our footprint, I think we have some preliminary thoughts on what could take shape there, some great opportunities unfolding in new geographies, but too early to say where we position it. But we have great flexibility to grow quickly as those opportunities unfold.We now have an asset that will be ready to be installed somewhere else after it comes out of our North American toll production partner. And then beyond that, the lead time and the ability for us to install and ramp up these systems is inside of 12 months. So we can expand quickly when and where we need to.

[Brian Morrison, analyst]

All right. Thanks for all the color, Jeff. Look forward to seeing the progression.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

I appreciate the interest and the questions, Brian. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

[ Operator Instructions ] Your next question comes from Daniel Marks from Stonehouse Capital. Please go ahead.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Good morning, gentleman. I think your previous -- my colleague here took a number of my questions, so I'll try and peak around here a little bit. Jeff, in terms of the announcement about the production changes, can you -- that you released earlier in the week, can you quantify the impact on production cycle times? I know there's a bit of a journey that your product goes through from the time you purchase corn starts to delivering it to customers. So I just wonder if you could quantify that for us and quantify the impact on margin. And I think, Brian, you already answered the quantification on capacity that you're still up over $100 million and so on. But if you could quantify production cycle times an impacts on margin?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. Good question. So it's not. Good morning to Dan. It's not completely attributable to the investments that we're making in Europe. But just to characterize where we've been and where we're going to from, let's say, the length of supply chain challenges we faced. We were on a cycle as we got started in particular with the wet end strength aids, but the supply chain cycles overall were much longer. We were on a cycle of about a quarter to get things through from placing a purchase order for the raw starch to getting a product to customer. I think with these changes that we're making in Europe to give ourselves greater flexibility as well as the ability to source from different locations -- different locations, different suppliers in Europe with short order supply chain, I think we're going to get ourselves back to a more normalized sort of month or so of turnaround from purchasing starch to getting product ready for customers. So I think, a much needed but pretty significant change in our speed and our flexibility.On the cost side, the changes that we're making in Europe aren't really directed at cost. They're more so directed at flexibility. We do expect the cost to improve as especially the starch supply chain normalizes over the course of this year. But in North America, the internalizing of our capacity will have a positive impact on our margins, not huge, but meaningful. So we're thinking kind of 3%, 4% improvement on gross margins as a result of coming in-house.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. That flexibility in manufacturing you referred to, is that -- so that you can make your Surflock product either out of the original corn starch or your alternative product?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

That's one objective of making the investments we're making. It's also to be able to more easily switch between end products that we're producing. Yes, I'll say that -- I'll give credit to our toll manufacturing supplier in Europe. They've been a really good partner for a long time for us, and they've been extremely flexible and helpful in our scale up of new products. And this helps us to further improve that and do good things together. We've been constrained in North America. We've had a long-term positive relationship with our toll manufacturer in North America. But at the end of our agreement, it's pretty clear that we're going to be moving in different directions. And part of moving in different directions is just to give us greater ability to ramp up and scale new products, which had been a challenge for us in the last couple of years in North America. So that's a big part of this change too.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. Given geographically, you seem to be pretty even split between the Americas, Asia and Europe. Where do you produce for Asia? Is that produced out of Europe?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

So typically, we've been flexible to be able to produce it at both locations and we want to continue to have that flexibility. But we've been producing most effectively and efficiently out of Europe. There are a few different products that we ship into Japan and the rest of Asia. And we've been able to have that flexibility and produce those products most efficiently out of Europe to date.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. Then just to follow on Brian's question about your wet end sales channel or pipeline. You -- have I got it right. You've got 3 accounts currently that are -- 2 of them are tissue lines and one is a packaging company?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

That's correct.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Okay. And then you've got 8 that are in advanced trials and many more hopefully coming online in the last few months and continuing to grow that pipeline. Of the 8 that are in advanced trials, do you see by the end of 2023 that those could be commercial accounts? Is there anything that would stand in the way provided the product works and things go as they have? Is that enough time to turn those 8 accounts into commercial accounts?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes, absolutely. With the time lines we've seen of adopting this material, that's absolutely possible, and I would say, expected for this year. I think in particular, with the tissue lines which seem to be able to go quite quickly. And they are a good place for us to introduce to a new customer or a new geography just to show the simplicity and speed that you can achieve cost savings. So I would expect some some tissue lines for sure in the shorter term. And the paperboard lines just because of their scale and variety of products run on them take a little bit longer. They're more complex. But I think we're far enough along with a few of those that we could see some real results within this year as well.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Okay. And so you mentioned the big account that you went commercial with in November, they're trialing on a second line. Are any of the other manufacturers on a second line? Is there any other place that's sort of -- like what they saw in the first line and are on to the second line?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes. I think I mentioned it, but on the -- one of our first tissue customers, they've already replicated and moved to a second line based on the results they saw. And I'll say on top of that, what I didn't say before is it was the record adoption for any product we've ever had. So that's what gives us confidence in the speed. The product went on to the second tissue line. And with the experience that they and ourselves and our partners had in the implementation on the first line, they put it on, made some adjustments through the course of the day and then just kept running. So that's a testament to their performance, but also especially in tissue, the simplicity and speed at which this can happen.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. Back to your big packaging customer running on one line commercial, testing on the second line, sort of. Would you expect that this would be a one line, then the second, then the third, then the fourth? Or is there an opportunity to go kind of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 as you implement?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

I'd be guessing right now, Dan. We don't -- we're not privy to how they're thinking about this and what their plans are for expansion. We do know we can be responsive enough to whichever those scenarios you just mentioned. I'd just say that the results and the economics are so compelling that if it was me at that company, I would be moving pretty fast.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. [ Indiscernible ] trialing, moving over to wood composites. Obviously, things sound very good with your key partner there. What's the status of wood composites with other potential customers? Obviously, we know about SWISS KRONO, maybe an update on where things are with them? Are they expanding or holding steady or whatnot? And are there any players beyond that, that you think could become commercial accounts within the next 12 to 18 months?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Yes I would say steady with SWISS KRONO. Continued engagement to introduce some of our products to new mills. So they are still looking to the future. But that entire market in Europe is not in a good place right now, the wood panel market. So they're running at a fraction of nameplate capacity in most cases. So SWISS KRONO, I think, fair to characterize as steady. We are engaged with another top 15 player in Europe at a fairly advanced stage. So I would have hoped that we're going to see some results from them over the course of this year. They are an aggressive, say, more up-and-coming player within that top 15. So the characteristics are there for change. But by far, the opportunity with the key strategic account is the most important thing we could be doing. You can be sure that everybody else in the market is taking note of the news that they put out in the last couple of weeks here.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Got it. Last question. Sort of on the wet end, I know you talked before that there are other opportunities sort of at the more upstream end of the market. Any updates on potential at that level?

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Nothing that I can really update on other than continued good engagement. But as you go further upstream, it's just inherently much larger and slower. So there have been customer introductions of the product that's been modified with our biopolymer. Those have been successful so far. But I think it's still a fairly long road compared to the other Surflock opportunities we have that are more downstream. But when it does get traction, it represents a huge opportunity.

[Daniel Marks, analyst]

Wonderful. Jeff, thanks so much.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Thank you very much, Dan.

[Operator]

Jeff, there are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

[Jeff MacDonald, executive]

Thank you very much, and thanks to everybody for joining us today and we'll be back in touch really soon.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining and ask that you may disconnect your lines. Thank you.