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BRP Inc
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to BRP Inc. FY '21 First Quarter Conference Call. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Philippe Deschênes. Go ahead, Mr. Deschênes.
Thank you, Judi. Good morning, and welcome to BRP's conference call for the first quarter of fiscal year '21. Joining me this morning are José Boisjoli, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sebastien Martel, Chief Financial Officer. Before we move to the prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that certain forward-looking statements will be made during the call that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. I invite you to read BRP's MD&A for a listing of these. Also during the call, reference will be made to supporting slides, and you can find the presentation on our website at brp.com. So with that, I'll turn the call over to José.
Thank you, Philippe. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. About 2 months ago, when we presented our year-end result, we were of -- we were on the role. We had incredible momentum with every product line worldwide, and we were anticipating another great year ahead. Like the rest of the world, we were faced with the sudden impact of the COVID-19 crisis, which brought rapid changes that significantly disrupted our business and operation and forced us to quickly adapt our plan. It began when our dealer had to close their business as the situation worsened in China in January. Closure followed in Western Europe in February, where local government enforced severe contentment measure. As you can see on this slide, retail in North America had been strong until mid-March was negative for 1 month and once dealers started to reopen, retail has been strong since mid-April. Our manufacturing has reopened or is in the process of reopening, and we are adapting to the present reality. With retail tracking better than expected, we are now focused on getting production back to capacity globally. I am proud of the team's swift action taken to limit the potential impact of the crisis on our business and protect our financial flexibility. Amongst other, we deployed global protocol to ensure that our employee can work in a safe environment and reduce risk. We adjusted our production plan in line with government health regulation and expected market demand. We implemented cost mitigation measure, notably to temporary salary reduction and an exhaustive review of discretionary spending, resulting in overhead savings of up to $450 million for the rest of the year. We focused on liquidity preservation, notably focusing our CapEx investment on key projects, with high impacted return, resulting in a total CapEx target of $220 million to $250 million for the year, representing a reduction of about $130 million to $160 million from last year level. And we were successful in extending our term loan B by USD 600 million and maintain our covenant life condition. As a result of these efforts with our cash on hand and $700 million of revolver availability, following the completion of the term loan transaction, we have about $1.3 billion of financial flexibility. While we remain cautious about the future, we expect that these different initiatives will allow us to navigate to the uncertain times, while allowing us to continue investing for the long-term growth of the company. However, this measure do not come with sacrifice and one of the toughest decisions we had to make, as we announced yesterday evening, is the discontinuation of outboard engine production. As you have witnessed over the last few years, despite its innovative technology, our outboard engine lineup has been losing share in a market that was already difficult. Our strength was in the early power segment while the industry growth was driven by the package sector, which led to continued share erosion. Given this trend, our outboard engine had fallen behind in terms of profitability and cash generation potential. As the current situation force us to reduce our investment plan and review downward our growth expectation for the business, the path to profitability improvement for outboard engine was too long. It became apparent that we had to discontinue production. For our Evinrude employee, let me say that I'm very proud of the part they have played over the past years, and in particular, the effort over the past 18 months. Although we have made progress, the impact of the COVID-19 has left us no choice. I wish to thank them for their dedication and commitment in helping us create the Marine Group. This decision will allow us to refocus our Marine investment on higher expected return and sustainable projects such as innovative technology and enhancing outboard offer. We remain committed to our Marine strategy with an evolution to our approach. Along with the announcement last night, we also announced a global supply agreement with Mercury, which is securing access to engine and is expected to support our dealer network development efforts. Our strategy has always been about building a strong marine business by offering customers a superior boating experience to production -- through product innovation. The discontinuation of outboard engine production does not change that objective. The development of Project Ghost and Project M are progressing as planned, and we are confident that they will be game changers in the industry. Before we get into the quarterly results, I wanted to provide you with an update on our manufacturing operation. As you know, we suspended our slowdown, most of our operations starting in late March until mid-May, responding to local government containment measures. This obviously limited our ability to ship product in the first quarter and impacted our financial result. The good news is that we have been able to take extensive measures to protect our people while resuming capacity. Production, as we started, is ramping up in most of our facilities, and we are set to be operational everywhere starting next week. As mentioned, our results were significantly impacted by mandatory closure of plan and dealership. However, our retail performance was solid given the current context, with North American Powersports retail being up 4% or 10% when excluding snowmobile. Contributing to that, strong retail performance, was our focus on supporting our dealers as we strive to continue delivering the best-in-class dealer value proposition in the industry. Ensuring the health of our dealer network is a key priority, and we made sure to find solution to ease the financial burden on our dealer, notably as we extended floor plan support until the end of June. Adjusted PerforMAX target until the end of July to account for potential reduced demand. We proactively adjusted dealer orders and we extended warranties for all our Powersports products. We also implemented a measure to simplify business processes for dealers and to drive consumer demand. The response from our dealer network on these initiatives was very positive and should help us to continue to gain momentum. Now talking -- taking a closer look at the North American quarterly retail performance on Slide 10. Our product portfolio performed above our expectation during the first quarter. We continue to outperform the off-road industry with side-by-side retail growing above 40% and ETV retail being up high single-digit, driven by a strong first half of the quarter and very strong second half of April. The 3-wheel vehicle category is suffering the most in the current context since the confinement measure taken have had the most impact on this category with the closure of riding school and cancellation of demo tours, 2 key projects to support the growth of this sector. I will explain more on this in a moment. Finally, while outboard down for the quarter, personal watercraft and snowmobile outpaced their respective industries. As summer is approaching, there appear to also be a clear trend that people will be staying at home for their vacation or as they say a staycation, which would work in our favor. We added this slide to give you some color on our retail analysis that we did, showing that our retail performance was very strong in region where access to Powersports dealer and playground remain more available during the containment period. You can see a clear difference between the U.S. and Canada, where the provinces of Québec and Ontario were completely closed for 6 weeks. The middle graph show the data taken April 15. And as you can see, the gaps in retail between the dealers that were open versus close and on the right between rural and urban dealers, retail was up 20% when dealers were open for most of the month of April and up 24% in rural areas. When dealers are open, sales remain strong. This bodes well for our industry as gradually entered the confinement stages in many regions around the world. Now let's turn to Slide 12 for the year-round product highlight. Revenue were up 2%, driven by a strong start of the quarter, partially offset by the impact of the crisis. On the retail side, 10 months into season '20, the side-by-side industry was up high single digit. The demand for Can-Am side-by-side was very strong, and our retail was up low 40% season to date. Can-Am side-by-side was also performing well in international market despite the situation with retail for the quarter up over 40% in Latin America and up over 20% in EMEA and 20% in Asia Pacific. Under the current context, these are incredible results. Turning to ATV. The North American ATV industry was also 10 months into the season and retail was up low single digit. For this period, Can-Am ATV retail was up low-teen percent, notably gaining share in the mid CC segment. We are pleased with the performance of our off-road business, which had a very strong end of April, and the positive trend continued in May. Now looking at 3-Wheeled Vehicle. Early in season '20, the North American 3-wheeled vehicle industry was down low 30%, while we were down low 40%. There are a few factors to note. First, we are lapping an excellent quarter due to the launch of the Ryker last year. As I mentioned, the on-road industry suffered the most from containment measure due to the closure of riding school and license issuer and the cancellation of demo tours. We also had to cancel our marketing effort since we have no project to support new entrants into the market, a key driver for this category. We have now launched a new marketing campaign that is adapted to the improving situation. As schools are reopening, demand for classes is growing, and we are confident we will regain traction. Turning to seasonal product on Slide 13. Seasonal product revenue were down 14%, primarily driven by lower shipment as many dealer workflows. Now looking at retail. The North American Snowmobile industry ended its season '20 on March 30, which retail down mid-single-digit percentage. Our Ski-Doo lineup continued to drive strong consumer demand, resulting in retail that was up mid-single-digit percentage and ended the season with the highest market share in its history. In Scandinavia, 10 months into the season '20, the snowmobile industry is down mid-teen percent, driven by unfavorable snow condition last winter. Ski-Doo and Lynx outperformed all other brands with retail only down high single-digit percentage. Our complete lineup and new product introduction, notably the new Summit Turbo model have put us in a very favorable position in the industry with continued market share gain potential. Although we had to cancel our demo tour, we are encouraged by the level of Spring certificate unit sold to customers. Our performance is very similar to last year, which is testament to the strength of our Ski-Doo and Lynx brand. Now turning to Personal Watercraft. It is still early in the season and the North American personal watercraft is flat with Sea-Doo retail is up low single-digit percentage. Given the current situation, which halted manufacturing plus a cold spring, our retail was affected and we reduced our model year '20 production plan by 18% compared to last year. However, we decided to advance the cutoff of model year change, and we will be ready to ship model year '21 units starting this summer. May retail so far for watercraft has been very encouraging. And with our production adjustment, we will be ready to supply the demand as needed. Continuing with a look at Powersports part, accessories and apparel and OEM engines. Revenue were down 15% as a result of dealer closure due to the pandemic. Parts order, which represent an important portion of our PA&A business are directly correlated to the ability of dealer to service unit, and as a result, suffered the most from dealer being closed. As dealership started to reopen, we saw an improvement in part sales. Finally, looking at our Marine business. Revenue were down 26% due to a lower volume of outboard engine and boats sold, partially offset by the impact of the acquisition of Telwater during last year. At the retail level, Alumacraft was down over 20%, resulting from weak industry trends in key markets, while Manitou performed well with retail up low-teen percentage. With the confinement measure lifting and Spring weather getting better, we see retail improving for both Manitou and Alumacraft. With that, I will turn the call over to Sebastien.
Thank you, José, and good morning, everyone. As mentioned, we had a very strong start of the quarter. Continuing our growth trajectory from recent years until the COVID-19 pandemic led to global containment measures resulting in dealer closures and suspension of production in most of our sites, starting in late March. This impacted our ability to ship products, resulting in revenues that were down 8% from last year and normalized EBITDA down 16%. Our normalized EPS ended the quarter at $0.26. As part of our initiatives to preserve our financial flexibility, we reprioritized our CapEx plan for the year, resulting in investments of $43 million in Q1, down $9 million from last year. We managed working capital leading to $100 million of positive working capital contribution and $169 million of free cash flow for the quarter. And as José mentioned, following the end of the quarter, we secured a USD 600 million term loan with a covenant-light structure that matures in 2027. With the added Term B, we have significantly strengthened our liquidity position, allowing us to focus on managing the business through these uncertain times and continuing investing for the long-term growth of the company. As I mentioned, our revenues were impacted by our ability to ship in certain markets. Our retail remained strong in the United States as many dealers were able to stay open, allowing us to continue shipping products, which resulted in Q1 revenues that were up 5% for the region. However, the situation was different in other key markets where a higher proportion of our dealer network had to close, leading to retail decline and lower shipments. This was particularly true in Europe, where we had a very strong start of the year, but the trend worsened early in March as contained measures were more comprehensive and were put in place much earlier than in North America. Our gross profit margin was also impacted by the situation, notably due to the closure of our manufacturing sites in late March and all of April. On a comparable basis, our gross profit margin was up 10 basis points from last year as the negative impacts from volume mix, pricing and sales programs and production costs and depreciation were more than offset by favorable foreign exchange rate variation. However, COVID-19 had a 350 basis point impact on our margin, primarily driven by less efficient fixed cost absorption due to production shutdown and higher yard inventory depletion. Turning to Slide 19. Our quarterly normalized net income was down $30 million compared to last year, driven by negative impacts of $62 million coming from volume mix, pricing sales programs and $16 million from production and distribution costs, which were partly offset by lower overhead resulting from our cost mitigation efforts, offset in part by higher depreciation for a net positive impact of $38 million, lower net financing costs and normalized income tax expense for $3 million and a favorable foreign exchange rate impact for $7 million. Also, given the impact of COVID-19 on the outlook for our industries, we took a $171 million noncash impairment in the quarter for our Marine business, which is facing more challenging industry dynamics compared to when we acquired them. This amount accounts for the revaluation of the boat companies we have acquired over the past couple of years and the impact of the decision to discontinue the production of outboard engines. This amount has been excluded from our normalized metrics. Now looking at network inventory on Slide 21. Our network inventory was up 7% over the same period last year, well positioned despite the current situation as we experienced better-than-expected retail trends, across most of our product lines. The increase is primarily driven by 3-wheeled vehicle as it was the most impacted product line within our portfolio due to the closure of riding schools, demo tours and more dealers being closed in urban areas. SSV industry was also up as we had positioned the network inventory early in the year for the expected continued solid retail growth. This allowed us to support the strong consumer demand we experienced with retail being up over 40% for the quarter despite that we had to suspend our production due to the pandemic. Our number of days of inventory are lower than usual for both SSV and ATV, which may lead to certain models being difficult to access in certain regions. But with our operations restarting, we expect to be able to sustain the continued strong consumer demand for our lineup. Our network inventory growth was partly offset by a lower level of inventory of PWC due to the production shutdown. Still, we believe the level of inventory is appropriate for the expected demand. And as José mentioned, we will be able to produce and ship model year '21 earlier than usual, if there is additional demand. And lastly, for Snowmobile, we ended the season with a healthy inventory position, allowing us to start the next one in a good place. Finally, turning to Slide 22. The coming weeks and months will be determined in how our fiscal year '21 will play out. As many regions of North America and Europe are deconfining and restarting their economies, we will get greater visibility on the potential impacts of the pandemic on consumer demand, which will be impacted by the severity and length of the economic uncertainty. The agility of the global supply chain and its ability to adapt and resume operations in a safe and sustainable manner. And people's confidence, which will undoubtedly be linked to the evolution of the virus and will impact both demand and workforce availability across multiple industries. Given the uncertainty related to these elements, we are not in a position to provide a guidance for fiscal year '21 at the moment. However, we are sharing with you our high-level view on how we expect the year to progress. This outlook assumes the restart of our manufacturing operations as schedule, no further closure of operations in our factories or suppliers and our dealer network and continued positive consumer demand in North America, but lower year-over-year overall demand in other regions of the world. Based on this, we anticipate a challenging second quarter as revenues are expected to be down about 40% due to the production suspension across most of our sites during April and May and then a progressive ramp up to resume full capacity and replenish yard and dealer inventories and the impact of the discontinuation of outboard engine production. We expect the trend to progressively improve for Q3 and Q4 as we complete our production ramp up. However, revenues are still expected to be down year-over-year 10% to 20% in the second half of the year due to the anticipated lower demand for our products in international markets and the impact of the discontinuation of outboard engine production. We expect CapEx for the year to be $220 million and $250 million, depreciation of about $265 million, net financing cost of about $135 million and the effective tax rate to be between 26% and 27%. And finally, end the year with a diluted share count of about 89 million shares. While our results for the year will suffer from the pandemic, the fundamentals of our business remain solid as we continue to outpace our industries and gain market share. Furthermore, our ability to secure our financial flexibility is allowing us to continue investing in our growth initiatives to put the company in a solid position for the rebound in years to come. With this, I'll turn the call back to José.
Thank you, Sebastien. These are not easy times, but what makes me happy and proud is the agility and resilience of our employees, suppliers and dealers. I would like to thank them for their efforts and continued dedication. Going forward, our priority, our focus is on 2 things; how me manage in response to the current environment and making sure we are prepared for what the future holds. As always, we are committed to ensuring a safe working environment for our employee globally and now more than ever. We are also focused on staying agile. Our agility allow us to react quickly to the crisis and now to successfully ramp up again while making sure our dealer network is healthy and ready to be back in action. We will maintain our market leadership to our best-in-class marketing, go-to market and retail strategy. There has never been a better time to promote the customer experience riding our products. Now to prepare for the future, we need to continue our growth objective adapted to this new reality. Although we reduced our CapEx, we are protecting our key growth project and initiative to maintain our momentum in the industry. And to do this, we will need to rethink now how we do business and add that to the new normal in our operation, our strategy and our mindset. We believe this new reality will give us opportunities to demonstrate our leadership as things will continue to evolve. For example, we believe the way people purchase has definitely changed with more interest than ever in e-commerce. With global travel remaining restricted in the short term, more staycations, prolonged social distancing and fewer large gathering and events, consumer will look for activities that can be practiced closer to home. With our product, our know-how and our solid financial flexibility, we are well positioned to navigate through the crisis, respond to new trends and emerge stronger than ever. Lastly, I would like to remind you, we'll make the high-deal product for social distancing. On that note, I will now turn the call to the operator for questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Steve Arthur with RBC Capital Markets.
I'm wondering, first, if we could just get a little bit more color on what you're seeing with some of the retail trends into May. In the U.S., it sounds like a strong recovery starting in late April and continuing, but just any comments on what you're seeing now with dealer traffic levels, the restrictions that they're working through and such in the U.S. and also the patterns that you're seeing emerging now in Canada and Europe?
Steve, obviously, for competitive reason, we'll not give you all the data that we see, but I will give you some. First, our dealers right now -- about 90% of our dealers are reopened in the United States. There is still some states in the East and in California that are close, but 90% plus are open. And in Europe, where everything was closed for a period of time in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, about 80% of our dealers are operational. Then I won't give you the detail by product line or by country. But since the beginning of May, we are up about 35% worldwide between all product line and all countries. Then we don't know how long this will continue, but definitely a trend that is positive for our type of product.
So I guess just squaring that, if retail into May is that strong versus an outlook for down 40% in Q2, there's a difference there, I guess, just the lag in terms of production versus retail -- production down for 6 weeks?
Yes, that's for sure. That's for sure.
Yes. Okay. Good points. Just secondly, just in terms of the production ramp, I guess, that your primary facilities in Mexico, it sounds like they're ramping up now. Just any comments on the level of utilization you're at now? And how you see that ramping? What the limiting factories are, whether it's local restrictions or supply chain or just matching demand?
In Mexico, the government gave us the okay to restart on June 1, which is next week. And we've been working on ramping up the production for the last 2 weeks. Then we're allowed to let our people in and prepare for ramping up. That's what we're doing right now because you don't just flip the switch on us, but we will be fully operational in our 3 factories starting next week. Obviously, we expect to have some difficulty here and there with suppliers because we're managing about 550 key suppliers around the world. And I think we will go through some difficulties overall for the rest of the year. But as we speak right now, everything looks good that everything will be operational next week.
And just a final one on operating costs and overhead savings. So I think you've been pretty aggressive with that, looking at a $450 million reduction. Presumably as things start to ramp back up, some of those costs come back online. But any sense of how much of those savings might be permanent or structural in the business now and, therefore, support longer-term margins?
Yes. Steve, what we've communicated is we have plans in place to reduce our expenses up to $450 million versus what we were planning initially for fiscal year '21. Obviously, we will remain agile and adapt our plans. We'll see how things are trending. One thing I can tell you is with the discontinuation of the outboard engine business, that's a reduction of about $80 million of overhead. And so that's going to be recurring year-over-year. And as things evolve, we'll be nimble as we've been in the past in the last few months, and we'll balance the short-term financial priorities with our long-term aspirations. And so the good news is we have flexibility to adjust accordingly.
Your next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird.
Seb, I think you just mentioned some metrics regarding the engine business that you're exiting, could you share with us the annualized revenue and margin profile of that business so we can try to exclude it from future results?
Yes. Well, actually, on the OE business, there's actually 2 components. There's the unit business and there's a parts business. And the parts business is a business that we're going to be continuing. Obviously, we're going to be servicing our dealers for warranty, but also for our consumers that are no longer under warranty but need service. So that business is going to keep going on. As José mentioned, the unit business, so the actual engine was a business that we were subscale. We've been losing market share over the last few years. And from a margin perspective, it's a business that was almost breakeven. And from a profitability, it was a business that was actually at a loss position, and that's why we took the decision to discontinue it. When you look at OE in terms of the whole portfolio of our Marine segment, the engine business is about 45% of total revenue. So if you carve that part out, it should give you a good appreciation of what the remaining business is.
What would you estimate your market share to have been in that...
In the mid-single digit.
And then going back to the comment on May retail trends, which appear to be really strong. Is there any way to look at that data and deconstruct it for whether you're seeing an influx of first time buyers? Or there may be some kind of catch-up demand from earlier periods where dealers were closed? Just trying to get a real feel for the extent to which this outdoor theme is really capturing new eyeballs?
Yes. I mean we've done some surveys about the customer repurchase our units in the last month, and we see more new entrants than typical. Typically, we have about 20% of our sales is to new entrants. Smart survey, again, it's a small sample, but we are more around 30% right now. Then there is definitely a trend there where some people who was not considering our type of product, we see them entering into our type of industry. Then this is very positive. There is obviously a lot of money in the system, a lot of government invested in economy and with, again, the staycation and the social distancing, canceling vacation and travel restriction, there is definitely a hype there. Then this phenomenon is there, we can see it. We can feel it. On the other hand, we cannot ignore that the unemployment rate is going up, consumer confidence is low and the housing start has reduced, then all of this at one point, will catch up. Then we feel pretty confident for the next few months. But how this will play on the second half of the year, that's a bit difficult to predict.
And your next question comes from the line of Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital Markets.
A couple of questions. First, you're talking about lower demand in rest of the world. Just why aren't folks elsewhere looking for outdoor recreational products, just like we're doing here in the U.S. and North America? Is this just a North America phenomenon?
I think, Gerrick, there is some timing like LATAM right now is down, but the COVID hit Brazil and Mexico later than in Europe and in North -- in Canada and U.S. and I think it's just a question of timing. Those countries were [ upbeat ] later than North America -- than Canada, U.S., sorry, and now they are in the middle of it. Then it's -- I think it's only a question of timing. I think the phenomenon is exactly the same.
Yes. But aren't your markets bigger in Europe and Asia compared to Latin America? What about those markets that...
Yes. Obviously, the -- what we're seeing is that the confinement measures were more, I don't want to say drastic or severe. And so is there a bigger aftershock event there for the consumers, we're not seeing the pickup that we're seeing in the U.S. in terms of retail.
Okay. Going back, say, 2 years ago, would you have acquired these outboard brands if you did not have the Evinrude business?
Absolutely. I mean when -- and you saw the few presentations we've done about the boat strategy. But BRP is a diversified company, and we are -- I think this is one of our strength, and we needed to diversify outside powersports. Marine is a good complement to what we do, and you see how many customers who buy ATV, Ski-Doo or snowmobile are buying boat. And we see a big opportunity in the boat industry. Obviously, our thinking is about creating new experience by pushing innovation and technology, and that's what we're doing right now by redesigning the complete lineup of Alumacraft, Manitou and Telwater boat. Then for us, it's a bit sad that we discontinued the production of the Evinrude -- the outboard engine, but we will continue to invest in new technology in the new boat because we believe that our long-term strategy makes a ton of sense.
Okay. So Project Ghost was not reliant on you having the outboard engine technology?
Project Ghost, and I won't tell you the detail about it, but Project Ghost and Project M are ongoing right now.
Your next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.
I have 2 questions. First, on the off-road business. You mentioned -- well, I guess, you didn't give a specific product line, but you mentioned sales up very strongly so far in May, and we're assuming a lot of that in off road. But with the restart just taking place next week, I guess, how long do you think that retail from here going forward is going to be lower than it would have been. In other words, is there not enough product that it's going to impact your retail negatively in the next month? And then is it by 6 weeks from now that you feel like you would have enough inventory in the system to be able to meet the level of retail demand? Or sort of how long will that period last?
Well, as you saw, Robin, at the end of Q1, our inventory was up in the network, about 7%. And part of that was driven by side-by-side. So year-over-year, side-by-side at the end of Q1 was up mid-teens. And so we had a good level of inventory. Obviously, the retail is very strong, but we had anticipated strong retail when we started the quarter, and we had, I guess, filled the network with some inventory. It might be tight for a few models in some regions, but the retail in May continues to be strong. And as José mentioned, next week, we're going to be in full production, and we're going to be starting shipping units to dealers again. Obviously, we'll be shipping the units that are in high demand. And so we believe that we'll be able to meet consumer demand and continue driving strong retail in the second quarter as well.
Okay. I guess just looking at side-by-side inventory is up mid-teens, but in theory, retail is pacing -- seems to be pacing up 40% still in the month of May. Is that -- and I know these are on different basis, right? The retail base on the inventory base are different numbers. So do you have enough inventory -- is the mid-teen increase at the end of Q1 enough to support that kind of retail through Q2?
It's enough to support strong retail. We're going to finish Q2 probably with inventory down year-over-year. As I said in my prepared remarks, we might run out of certain models in certain regions. And so unfortunately, some consumers may not necessarily have the choice of color they wanted, but we believe that there's going to be enough inventory in the network to meet the overall demand. And as we rebuild our -- as we restart production and refill the pipeline, we believe that we'll be able to sustain that momentum. So are we losing retail maybe in the second quarter? Yes. But we believe that with our production ramp up, we'll be able to catch up pretty quickly.
Okay. Great. That's very helpful. And then just another question. We had thought that the outboard engine business was operating at a loss, and you kind of confirmed that. Can you quantify what addition to EPS you got just from maybe taking that loss out? How much does that add to the bottom line?
Yes, good question. When I look back to fiscal year '20, and I carve out the OE business, I'm looking at a $0.60 to $0.70 negative EPS impact.
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Petrie with CIBC.
I just wanted to follow-up on 2 things. First, with operational constraints and social distancing on manufacturing, does that ultimately impact your sort of capacity or throughput? Or do you expect to be able to ramp to previous levels?
Mark, no. I mean, obviously, we were lucky enough to restart engineering in Canada about 5 weeks ago because we needed to plan the transition from model year '20 to '21, and we could not lose the momentum we had. Then we developed a lot of a good measure to make sure that our employees are safe. And right now, we are implementing this protocol everywhere where we have factory. And we believe that in terms of assembly and all the manufacturing operation will be as efficient as before. That being said, as Sebastien explained, we need to rebuild the inventory -- our own inventory to be efficient in shipping. You need a certain level of product, and we are lucky we have many product lines. And right now, when we ship, we have a mix of Watercraft, ATV side-by-side, we're optimizing the load for few dealers in certain area. This will take time to rebuild. Then in the factory, our efficiency will go back quickly. I think it will take a few months before we are overall as efficient as before.
Okay. And then wondering if you could just give any other comments around sort of the type of demand that you're sort of seeing at the dealer level in terms of price points and the type of product and then maybe by -- at least within side-by-side like rec-sport utility, how the demand profiles or the sales performance varies by those subcategories?
I would say it's all over. The demand is strong for every product line. It was a bit difficult for 3-wheel, because we had to stop all our different activity to continue our momentum. Even today, you cannot have a license or you cannot place your vehicle because license office are still closed. But except for 3-wheel and now it's ramping up, I think we will recover the year, but the demand for all the product lines are strong.
Okay. And then just the last one. Seb, you had mentioned sort of the positive working capital flow through for Q1. Just wondering about expectations for the balance of the year as production ramps up and inventories get moved around?
Yes, I'm expecting Q2 to be a consumer of cash on the working capital side as we pay off suppliers, we rebuild inventory. So that's going to be a negative, probably in the range of $100 million. And then for the back half of the year, I'm expecting things to stabilize as they were in prior years and prior quarters.
Your next question comes from the line of Tim Conder with Wells Fargo Securities.
A couple of items. Just wanted to -- just to clarify and confirm a prior question here. So Seb, you said that for fiscal '20, the impact of the engine business that you're discontinuing was about $0.60 to $0.70 in earnings?
Yes.
Okay. Okay. And then gentlemen, can you kind of talk about the potential incremental investments you may be making in e-commerce, either at the company level or with the dealer network that have -- maybe that you said is you've reexamined things coming through the trough of COVID and now on, hopefully, the continued positive slope of recovery. Actually, we maybe need some more additional investments on e-com here, both again at the company level or at the dealer level?
Yes. And Tim, it's more rebalancing our portfolio of IT investments. Obviously, we believe that there might be a continued phenomenon of people working from home or people preferring to -- obviously, everyone sees that -- have seen the trend of people shopping online. And so how do we make sure that we have the best tools for consumers or dealers. So it's shifting of money, but it's not a huge capital investment that we're talking about. It's more prioritized.
Okay. Okay. And then José or Seb, whoever wants to take this, the pricing and promotions. Any way to bucket what you're seeing -- what you saw in Q1 and are expecting here over the balance of the fiscal year into what may be, let's call it, normal promotions, ex-COVID and then COVID related, what you're having to do because of COVID? Any way to -- I mean, it's maybe a difficult question, but any way to sort of parse that?
Yes. It's a difficult question. Let's say that promotion was quite aggressive on noncurrent like it's always do. Off-road, obviously, everyone want to benefit of the situation. Noncurrent, I would say, it's about similar to what we see from some of our competitors over the last few years. Then I would say, no big change before and after the COVID. Noncurrent, we're aggressive and some model, on the current. We were aggressive on retail promotion for consumers with a very good financing offer, 0 interest for 5 years. And that definitely helped the retail because 2, 3 weeks ago, we didn't know how this would play. Then overall off-road watercraft, I would qualify it as normal and 3-wheel as normal. Going forward, it's very difficult to predict. I think right now, every OEM are chasing capacity and want to make sure to ramp up, then most likely, people will be maybe a bit less aggressive on program, but very difficult to predict what will happen in the coming months.
Okay. Helpful. And then 2 last questions. One, do you see any furtherance of working relationship with Brunswick outside of the supply agreement on the Marine side? And then lastly, your thoughts on the potential of when you could potentially return to fiscal '20 levels in terms of revenue or I would think profitability may have a quicker ramp given the -- at least the $80 million of structural savings on the engine side that you've eliminated?
On your question about Brunswick, and Brunswick, obviously, is the perfect partner for us because they don't compete in Powersports, then it's a very good complement. We obviously are happy with the Evinrude -- the outboard supply agreement that we have with them, and we could, in the future, exchange technology, but we'll see how this will play in the future.
And on the -- your question, obviously, I'd love to give you an answer this morning to you and to the rest of the organization of BRP. There's -- obviously, as you can appreciate, there's still a lot of uncertainty. How things will pan out, how the economy will react to massive job losses. And so today, I'd say it's much too early to call when we believe things will come back to normal. The good news is, again, at BRP, I believe we are in a much better positioned than we were back in '08 and '09 with The Great Recession. You guys understand well the leadership positions we have in all our brands. And we believe that, that momentum is going to continue as we are seeing it continuing when things come back to normal. So do we believe we'll come back to fiscal year '20 levels someday? Absolutely, but it's too early to give any outlook.
Our next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier with Desjardins.
With respect to the engine contribution in fiscal '20, was this $0.60, $0.70 on EPS was positive or negative contribution?
It was negative, Benoit.
Okay. Perfect. And now with respect to the Ghost Project and the Project M, I understand the timing is unchanged, everything, but could you talk more specifically about who will be responsible of providing the engine and whether there's exclusivity or is Mercury -- does Mercury need to build a new engine for this particular projects?
Obviously, Benoit, for competitive reason, I cannot go into detail of your question. The only thing I can say is Project Ghost and Project M are ongoing. And we are confident about our -- we oriented our strategy.
But it will be an internally sourced technology, Benoit.
That will be manufactured by Mercury or manufactured...
We won't go into the detail, but it's -- again, our partnership with Brunswick is for the supply of traditional outboard engine. And our plans for Ghost do not change, and our plan for Project M do not change as well.
Okay. Perfect. Okay. That's great color. And José, you mentioned that CapEx will come back and will be reduced, obviously, and the spending will be may don't keep projects. So would you maybe share some color on what you would consider as key projects right now? And maybe if you could share some discussion you had with the dealers following the announcement around the electric bikes last fall?
Benoit, I mean, we had before COVID, an incredible momentum with all our product lines around the world. And in those reductions that we made, we didn't make sure that we protect as much as we can our 5-year lineups for our product line. There is some adjustment here and there. But globally, we are very confident with what we're planning for the years to come. A lot of CapEx was related to plant maintenance, equipment turnover that will slow down for a period of time, but we protected our 5-year lineup. Electrification is ongoing. And again, we didn't disclose when those products will be offered. But we'll see how all of this will play and how fast we can come back to the level that we had before the COVID-19.
Okay. Perfect. And now when we look at your kids lineup, could you let us know how this product line is doing these days? And how would you compare your kids product lineup against your peers right now in terms of product offering?
You're talking which product line, Benoit?
I'm talking about the kids lineup. So the DS 90, the DS 70, 225, I believe. So you have -- on the ATV side, you don't have your snowmobile for kids anymore, but just wondering whether you've seen more momentum around the kids' products and whether you have the good offering as opposed to peers?
I mean we have -- I think we have a competitive lineup in every segment that we are competing, and we decide to compete. And overall, I mean, we didn't see any drastic change with what happened in the last 1.5 months for those product line. Like I said before, right now, the surge in demand is touching every single product line, every price point, low and high end. Then we didn't see a surge on the youth product -- product for youth people.
And last one for me.
We need to move to the next caller on the line.
Your next question comes from the line of Greg Badishkanian with Wolfe Research.
It's Fred Wightman on for Greg. Just one quick one from us. If we look at the share gains in side-by-sides in the quarter, that was a big acceleration versus what we've seen over the past few quarters. So how should we think about that gap going forward? And what is driving that? Is it really just product availability in the channel? Or is it something else?
I mean, again, we have -- I believe we have very good competitive product. And the Can-Am brand is more and more known. The awareness is improving. People like the quality of our product and how they [ ride]. And I think it's all those things that are happening. Then again, good product, dealer making good money, better margin with our product line. Then it's a combination of all this that created the momentum.
And your next question comes from the line of Derek Dley with Canaccord.
Just a quick one for me. Just in terms of your dealer network, have any of them decided not to reopen due to the financial distress that was caused to some of them over the past month or 2?
We've been very lucky. None of our dealers have defaulted on their obligations with either their financial institution or the floorplan partners. Obviously, the dealer came in to this in a very good financial position because, obviously, our business with them has been growing. And they've made a lot of money with us. We've been proactive as well early in the COVID-19 by supporting our dealers with extended floor plan, working with TCF also to provide extended payment terms on interest that maybe due. So they deferred payments by over 90 days. And now with the retail that we're seeing, obviously, that's providing good cash flows for the dealers. So as of now, we're not seeing anything concerning on the dealer health's side.
And is that more specific to you guys, the fact that you had 0 of them have to close? Or what did you see overall in the industry?
Well, obviously, we know what our dealers -- how our dealers are performing and how other dealers. It's not -- I mean, it's not a business that we're looking at closely. But obviously, we work hand-in-hand with TCF. They're very proactive in assessing dealer health. And overall, I think, as I said, given that the dealers are -- have made money with us and are maybe had a period of 2 to 3 weeks, where things were tougher, but things restarted pretty quickly. I'm sure that brought a breath of fresh air to lot of our dealers.
Your next question comes from the line of Jaime Katz with Morningstar.
I'm curious, piggybacking on Tim's question. Since we don't know when we get back to 2020 levels, are you guys basically tabling the 2025 plan for now and rethinking it? Or do you think that there's enough sort of road ahead of us that we can -- that you guys can get back on track to achieve those goals?
No. I mean, we don't know. We are -- the pillar of the M25 plan are still there. But before the situation stabilize and the situation, we have a better view on when we'll go back to what we call new normal, we don't want to commit on anything. Then at the right time, we'll definitely -- if there is a need, realigned M25, but for the time being it's too early.
And Jaime, when we announced M25 last fall, we did get the question what will happen if there's a recession and what we said then, and it's still relevant today as well. If recession happens, maybe it's going to slow us down by 1 year or 1.5 years, but the ultimate goal does not change. And today, that's still our position.
Okay. And then at the end of the MD&A discussion, there was some commentary that internal control for financial reporting were ineffective, and it looks like there were no material restatements surrounding that. But I'm curious what the time line for the mitigation of that is just to sort of get my head around what the time line of maybe anything down the road that might come up with a restatement? Is that something like...
Yes. Obviously, when we listed in the U.S. on NASDAQ, the -- we were obligated to comply with the SARs requirements over the control environment. Related to financial reporting, obviously, we've always had clean audit opinions, as you have seen until -- there the quality of our numbers still remain, and José and I sign them every quarter, and we stand behind them. Related to the material weakness that was noted is around access controls around our systems, obviously, we have compensating controls. But the nature of the preventative controls need to be strengthened and the time line to do this is over the next 2 years. Our objective is for fiscal year '22 to be fully compliant.
Your next question comes from the line of Cameron Doerksen with National Bank Financial.
Just really one question for me, just with regarding gross margins. And you talked about in Q1, kind of a 350 basis point impact from, I guess, COVID-19 related stuff. How should we think about gross margins in Q2 with revenue down 40%? And I guess, maybe also if you could talk a little bit about what the second half of the year gross margin profile might look like on lower revenue, but on the offset, you've got the outboard engine that's not going to be there? So just some commentary about gross margins in Q2, but also the second half of the year.
Yes. Well, I'm expecting gross margins to be impacted quite significantly in the second quarter. Obviously, our plants are going to be closed for a month out of the full quarter. Inventory ramp-up should help a bit on the margin side. But obviously, with the significant reduction in volume, margins will be hit. When I look at the full year, and I'll go to probably the EBITDA margin there, again, if we hit those revenue numbers that I talked about, I'm expecting my EBITDA margin probably to be in the range of what we reported back in fiscal year '18, fiscal year '19 there. Those would be the numbers that I'd expect it to meet for the full year, Cameron.
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Morrison with TD Securities.
I'll keep this quick. I appreciate your comments on working capital. Just in terms of free cash flow for the year based on what you've given us, is it fair to say that you're looking at breakeven slightly positive?
Well, free cash flow, we'll call it free cash flow from operations, Brian. Yes, breakeven. But obviously, with the discontinuation of outboard engine, there will be a cash outflow coming with that. The expected cash outflow is about $60 million to $85 million that we reported in our financials. And so that's going to be a headwind to cash generation. So I'm expecting to burn cash this year with the closure of outboard engine.
Okay. And then just market share with the growth that you've had in side-by-side vehicles, specifically utility. Can you update us where you think you are?
Can you repeat the question? The sound is bad.
Sorry. Just in terms of your market share with side-by-side vehicles, what you think your current market share is with the growth that you've had specifically on the utility side?
But obviously, for competitive reasons, we don't disclose the detail, but we are around 20% market share globally.
And your next question comes from the line of Brandon Rolle with Northcoast Research.
Our conversations with dealers exiting Memorial Day weekend indicated a lack of inventory in 4 to 6 units for side-by-side just from a surge of demand of families wanting to get into ORVs. Could you talk about, I guess, the timing for production ramp-up for those units? And any risk you see from maybe families going to alternative, maybe going to boats or RVs are going away from ORVs because of the lack of inventory of those larger seated units?
Yes. I mean like Sebastien explained, for sure, there is some customer who will show up at the dealership and will not have the exact model that he's looking for. He won't have the blue or the red that is looking for, no doubt about that. If the customer want exactly what he need, he might be unhappy. That being said, we try to encourage transfer of inventory between dealership. And again, like we said, we're ramping up production. We're restarting production this coming week, and we will try to refill the pipeline as fast as we can. But again, we know that in summary, some model will be out of some product.
Okay. And there was some fears that one of your competitors was ramping up production, maybe 1 week or 2 before you and may have product in the field. Do you see that as a concern at all?
For sure. I mean, like Sebastien presented, our inventory level at the end of the quarter was higher than last year. Then we feel that we have sufficient of inventory, and we believe that for restarting the factories, we are all about at the same timing because we're all waiting for government to give us the green light to restart. Then maybe a week apart, but overall, we are in the same situation.
And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call back over to the presenters for closing remarks.
Great. Thank you, and thanks, everyone, for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking with you again for our Q2 call on August 27. Thanks, again. Have a good day.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.