Canadian Tire Corporation Ltd

TSX:CTC.A

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q1

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Valerie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited First Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This morning, Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited released their financial results for the first quarter of 2021. A copy of the earnings disclosure is available on their website and includes cautionary language about forward-looking statements, risks and uncertainties which also apply to the discussion during today's conference call.I would like to turn the call over to Greg Hicks, President and CEO. Greg?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome, everyone. I'm joined today by our CFO, Gregory Craig; and by TJ Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail who will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. As we continue to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic, Q1 once again brought its share of unique challenges, including significant restrictions across our store network. A mere 40% of our CTR and Sport Chek stores and only 60% of our Mark's stores were open at the start of the year. Although we returned to full operations across the business in March, we still face strict restrictions today across many parts of Canada. But relentless as COVID-19 may be, we keep overcoming the ongoing hurdles, as proven by the sustained momentum of all of our businesses and unprecedented results in the first quarter, including over $3 billion in retail sales and consolidated comparable sales up more than 19% across our banners. Normalized income before taxes was up more than $200 million in Retail and $56 million in Financial Services. As a result, we delivered first quarter normalized diluted earnings per share of $2.57. Equally important to what we achieved in the first quarter is how we achieved it. Over the past year, I've often referenced our purpose of “being there for life in Canada”; and how that has served as our North Star throughout COVID-19. And as the pandemic persists, so too does our purpose and that is thanks to our people. I want to thank all our team members for their unwavering efforts in helping foster our culture of connection. Our incredible results would not be possible without our distribution center and contact center teams, along with our store staff, associate dealers and corporate employees who continue to be there for each other, our customers and our communities. Together we are making life in Canada better for our customers. Our multi-category assortment across all banners continues to prove integral to meeting the demand for products in backyard living, outdoor activities and home projects. By continuing to grow our digital capabilities, we are enabling customers to shop with us in the ways that work best for them, from ship to home, to buy online/pick up instore, to curbside pickup. But as you've heard me say before, being there for Canadians is about more than the products we sell or services we provide. It means supporting our communities when they need us most. Through Jumpstart, we've accelerated our efforts to help kids reconnect with sport once it's safe for them to do so. In Q1, we committed an additional $12 million to the Jumpstart Sport Relief Fund and to date, $3.25 million have been dispersed to more than 300 community sport organizations. Our authentic connection with our communities helps foster and reinforce our connection with our customers and we have the results to prove it. With that, let's dive into the specifics of our Q1 results. Given the patterns we normally observe in the first quarter, we were impressed to see both our Retail and Financial Services businesses deliver such strong results. In the face of considerable restrictions in the first 6 weeks, Retail top line was resilient and coupled with solid operating leverage, delivered strong bottom line. Financial Services gross margin and income were up significantly, reflecting strong portfolio risk metrics along with encouraging customer spend and payments trends. Gregory will provide more detail on the financial performance of each of the banners. But before he does, I want to speak to the Retail landscape in the quarter and outline how we continue to evolve our omnichannel offering and our engagement with our customers.With ongoing stay-at-home restrictions and Canadians unable to travel for March break vacations, it should come as no surprise that our credit card spend data showed a shift away from travel and entertainment categories in Q1. But Canadian consumer spend was healthy in Q1 and significant COVID-19 spend substitution in the average Canadian household benefited us and helped us gain market share. We continue to see tailwinds around our key categories with the move to one-stop shopping. Our staying power and strong owned brands across Canvas backyard living products, kitchen and tools at CTR as well as Helly Hansen industrial workwear at Mark's helped us capitalize on what customers wanted to buy. In addition to sales being up across all our banners, sales increased within every division at CTR. Over 70% of categories at CTR grew and over 60% of them had double-digit sales growth. Spend in our credit card portfolio was up 7% across our 2 million cards. With an early start to spring in many parts of Canada, customers quickly shifted to thinking about outdoor sports equipment for spring and summer, outdoor living and bikes. As such, we saw an increase in purchases of items like patio sets and products from our backyard fun and gardening categories, driving an increase of more than $100 million across our seasonal living and playing divisions. Automotive categories at CTR were up, as Canadians prepared for a summer at home or on the road in Canada. Given the tremendous demand for bikes last year, CTR dealers ordered aggressively and merchandised earlier this year. Our ability to reliably source stock and assemble bikes puts them within easy reach of customers. This is proving to be a differentiator for us in the market and contributed to increased owned brand penetration. Across our cycling categories at CTR and Sport Chek, our bike business was up over $50 million compared to last year. Our timing was perfect for the launch of Raleigh, our newest owned brand at CTR and Diamondback, our own brand for bikes, accessories and apparel at Sport Chek.As restrictions once again impeded customers' ability to shop in store, the looked to our e-commerce channels to fulfill their jobs and joys. As a result, our websites saw 167 million digital visits, representing and increase of more than 60% over last year. Compared to the same time last year, we had 1.4 million more customers signed up on Canadian Tire apps. We saw a 13% increase in customers engaging with us in our owned audience channels such as email, as we grew our lists and increased the personalization of our offers. We also increased our ability to engage with customers through our Triangle program, which welcomed another 400,000 new members this quarter.Customer control channel remains important and we were able to flex and adapt to better serve our customers, offering multiple ways for them to shop with us, including buy-online pick-up-in-store, curbside pickup and delivered to home. In Q1, we handled almost 3x the volume in e-commerce orders compared to last year, a total of 4.5 million orders across our largest banners. That translated into almost $450 million of e-commerce sales for Canadian Tire this quarter with total e-commerce sales approaching $2 billion since the start of the pandemic. Around 3/4 of orders placed were for in-store pickup and we have significantly sped up our fulfillment time since the beginning of COVID-19. In Q1, the average CTR order was ready for pickup within 3.5 hours, and the average Sport Chek order was ready to collect within 1 hour. To further our efforts in this experience, we're increasing the number of CTR stores with pickup lockers from 25% of our stores having lockers at the start of Q1 to 40% by the end of Q2. We know the amount of time a customer has to wait to pick up their order matters. When we improve wait times, we see an increase in our Net Promoter Score, a measure we use to evaluate customer experience. The adoption of lockers at CTR is playing an important role in ensuring less friction in the pickup process, ultimately creating a more seamless experience and improved customer satisfaction. Customer experience continues to improve, as we focus on our critical omnichannel capabilities and we remain confident that being able to execute across a range of channels will continue to be important for our consumers long after the pandemic. At this morning's AGM, I'll be speaking in more detail about how we are translating our rich customer data into insights to connect with our customers in a more meaningful way. We know we won't succeed by doing things the way we've always done them, which is why we are no longer waiting for customers to engage with us. We are proactively engaging with them across all our channels. Let me give you a concrete example of this. We attracted 1.8 million new members into our Triangle Rewards program in 2020. The old Canadian Tire way would have been to take our chances on whether any of these new customers would show up the following year. Now, we're actively managing these 1.8 million new members, using cutting-edge agile methodologies to develop more relevant and personalized marketing and reduce disengagement after the first purchase. So far, this personalized marketing appears to be paying off. We attracted over 1/3 of those 1.8 million customers back to us for an average of 4 visits in Q1. We're also working on how we transform the digital engagement experience with our credit cardholders, customers who are among some of our most active Triangle members. With that, I'm pleased to announced that Aayaz Pira will be joining us on June 1 as President, Canadian Tire Financial Services and President and CEO Canadian Tire Bank, assuming the leadership of the bank from Mahes Wickramasinghe. Aayaz has significant experience in and knowledge of digital transformation and we look forward to welcoming him to the company and benefiting from his skills and leadership. And with that, I'll hand it over to Gregory to take you through the financial highlights of the quarter.

[Gregory George Craig, CFO & Executive VP]

Thanks, Greg, and good morning, everyone. As Greg has said, it was a great quarter for CTC, both from a sales and a profitability perspective. We were pleased with the reported diluted EPS of $2.47 compared to the $0.22 per-share loss from Q1 a year ago. And after normalizing for $9 million in operational efficiency charges, our normalized diluted EPS was $2.57 in the quarter. As a reminder, last year the COVID-19 pandemic and related market disruptions had significant impacts on our business, affecting our consolidated earnings by $94 million and our EPS by approximately $0.96 in Q1 2020. In addition, 2020 was a 53-week year. Consistent with our past practices and to ensure better comparability, we have provided comp sales growth on a time-shifted basis. This means that sales from week 1 this year are compared to sales from week 2 in the prior year. In contrast, retail sales growth is calculated without any adjustments. This drives some difference between retail sales and comp sales results in the quarter, particularly at Mark's and Sport Chek banners. With this, let me take you through a few of the financial highlights in the quarter, starting with sales and revenue. In the first quarter, we grew our Retail revenue by $566 million or 27% excluding petroleum. CTR revenue growth was the real standout, increasing $489 million or up 35% in the quarter, surpassing comp sales growth 19%. Strong dealer demand remained the primary driver this quarter. Dealers ordered in response to the continuing consumer demand and to rebuild inventory in seasonal and nonseasonal categories. And through our strong vendor relationships, we were able to secure inventory and meet their needs. More than 60% of the dealer shipment growth was to support spring/summer outdoor activities with products such as patio furniture, inflatable pools, barbecues and bikes, all categories with a strong sell-through last year. And dealers also continued to replenish life-at-home categories, such as kitchen, tools and paint. At Sport Chek, revenue increased 7.2%, while comp sales were up 18.7%. Exceptional performance in March accounted for 50% of the total sales as customers returned to the stores, and again, against a late March a year ago when stores were closed. With the early arrival of spring, we saw record sales in cycling as well as strong demand in fitness-related categories such as athletic footwear and kids apparel. At Mark's, revenue was up 15.3%, while comp sales increased 22%, with leading performance in the industrial categories. Additionally, we had good traction in our young adult segment with brands such as Levi's, Carhartt and Saks, driving growth in men's and ladies' casual wear and accessories. With respect to e-commerce demand, we were very pleased with the contributions of the buy-online pick-up-in-store channel across all of our banners. While it's been a staple at CTR for several years, the channel was not available at Sport Chek or Mark's until its introduction in Q3 2020. And in Q1, it accounted for 57% of the e-commerce orders at Mark's and 19% of the orders at Sport Chek, a strong indication of its relevance with consumers. And at Helly Hansen, we were pleased with their internal revenue growth of 12%, driven by strength of the e-commerce channel, which more than doubled compared to a year ago and double-digit increases in our footwear business. Retail volume drove gross margin dollars, which were up $191 million or 25%, excluding petroleum. Normalized gross margin rate, excluding petroleum, was down 62 basis points, primarily due to a shift in the mix of sales between banners, with CTR, our lowest margin rate banner, driving the predominant share of growth. The Retail gross margin rate also reflects higher freight costs in part due to higher e-commerce penetration rates across the banners. These headwinds were partially offset by improved margins at Sport Chek and Mark's due to lower promotional activity and higher regular price sell-through. As we navigate through Q2, we believe the ongoing store closures will continue to drive a higher e-commerce penetration rate. And throughout the balance of the year, we expect the impacts of higher freight and commodity costs to present some headwinds. However, the merchants have a number of levers they use to manage margin rates as we have demonstrated previously. Let me turn to some of the financial service business drivers now. The business continues to operate with resilience, posting strong credit metrics, a 7% credit card sales growth in the quarter and a $56 million improvement to the bottom line at the IBT level. Although credit card sales were strong, receivables declined 11% in the quarter. The reduction in receivables was driven by lower customer acquisition, the ongoing trend of customers paying down their balances at a higher rate relative to historical norms and the industry-wide impact of lower credit card sales in the prior year. Despite a revenue decline of $45 million or 13% in the quarter, gross margin improved $62 million compared to the prior year, including a $21 million allowance release, reflecting the improved credit risk of the portfolio. This quarter's impacts compared to $45 million of incremental allowance recognized in the prior year related to the higher economic uncertainty associated with the pandemic. The overall credit risk profile continues to be strong as evidenced by improvement in the operational metrics, such as the PD2+ rate at 1.98%, down 109 basis points and a net write-off rate at 5.28%, down 107 basis points compared to the prior year. As a percentage of receivables, the allowance rate is elevated at 14.93%, largely due to the approximately $600 million reduction in receivables compared to the prior year. We will continue to evaluate the level of allowance on our books in response to changes in our receivable balance, our credit performance trends and the macroeconomic environment. Looking ahead, account acquisition and balanced building programs will be deployed as appropriate, with employee and customer safety being key decision points specifically for in-store acquisition. With respect to OpEx, we saw savings in the quarter from our operational efficiency initiatives as well as lower personnel expenses as we cycled last year's $42 million mark-to-market adjustment, which resulted from the significant share price depreciation at the onset of the pandemic a year ago. While volume-related supply chain costs drove some OpEx growth, our consolidated normalized OpEx rate improved 520 basis points, reflecting the double-digit growth in consolidated revenue. Amid the ongoing global demand and widespread shortage of categories such as bikes and exercise equipment, access to inventory has been critical for us and has been the fuel that's powered our sales and our shipments in recent quarters. At the end of Q1, our inventory was in a strong position, up $128 million versus last year. The increase is partially driven by a higher sell-through and need for replenishment in spring categories and also as a result of ensuring access to key nonseasonal categories that continue to experience strong consumer demand. With respect to our financial health, our balance sheet and earnings power are in a strong position. This was recently recognized by S&P and DBRS, as both rating agencies reaffirmed our investment-grade credit rating and S&P revised CTC's outlook to stable. In light of the ongoing uncertainty related to the pandemic, we still don't believe it's appropriate to provide forward-looking information on capital spending or to resume our share buybacks beyond anti-dilutive purposes at this time. Rest assured, our focus remains on investing in our business, be that critical real estate projects or key digital initiatives. In evaluating the efficiency of our capital allocation decisions, we continue to be guided by our retail ROIC measure. And I wanted to highlight that we have made a change in methodology to align to a change in IFRS 16 accounting that came into effect in 2019. Using the updated methodology, our Q1 retail ROIC reflects a rolling 12 months, was 12.2% and is approximately 100 basis points higher than the value we would have calculated through our old methodology. But putting the change in calculation aside, we are very pleased with our ROIC performance, up 260 basis points versus the prior year and reflecting the strength in our retail business over the last 12 months. A detailed summary of the updated ROIC methodology is included in the quarterly earnings presentation on our investor website. While there remains uncertainty in Canada due to the pandemic, we are very pleased with the results in the quarter. And I want to echo Greg's comments and I want to thank our employees and dealers who continue to be there for our customers. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Greg for his closing remarks.

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Thanks, Gregory. Before I close, I want to give you some insight into what we're seeing so far in Q2 and how we're thinking about the balance of the year. In April, we continued to see strong demand in some of the categories that drove our results in Q1. Quarter-to-date, sales at CTR are up double digit, and revenue is strong. We are seeing solid top line momentum in all corporate banners as they lap more significant closures in the comparable weeks of Q2 last year. And as Gregory mentioned, we have robust inventory levels in place to meet the current demand. We expect spending in some categories to ease as we move through the third and fourth quarters and as we cycle a very robust Q3 and the highest Christmas on record in Q4. Although we all hope the end of COVID-19 is in sight, there is no telling when we'll reach the other side of this crisis. There remains uncertainty around how quickly the current restrictions on retail will be lifted. As part of our ongoing efforts to help mitigate the spread of the virus, we're providing our team members with paid sick leave and giving all employees paid time off to be vaccinated. As a company that recognizes widespread vaccination as the best way to reduce virus cases and rebuild our communities and the economy, we are actively supporting community vaccination efforts. For example, we've donated our large exhibition space at Place Sports Experts to be used as a vaccination site by the Laval region health agency. And we're committed to working with public health and the provincial government to establish an on-site vaccination clinic in a priority region for our employees and the community. I know everyone feels more than ready to be done with the pandemic. Unfortunately, it's not done with us, not yet anyway. Although we continue to find ourselves operating amidst a high degree of uncertainty and volatility in consumer shopping behavior, what we do know is that our brand is in an extremely strong position. We have fantastic assets run by great people. We are well-positioned to create value over the long term. No matter how long it takes, we will stay connected to our purpose of being there for Canadians and protecting the health and safety of our employees and customers will remain our top priority. Trust that we will be there to support Canadians in the rebuilding of our economy and our communities. With that, I'll pass it over to the operator for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Irene Nattel with RBC Capital Markets.

[Irene Ora Nattel]

I just want to drill down a little bit into that, so obviously, very strong in Q1. And can you give us some color around sort of the category performance in quarter 2 to date, which -- your commentary around double-digit sales growth is really interesting given the restrictions, particularly in Ontario. So anything you can provide there will be very helpful.

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Well, maybe I'll take that, Irene. I know in reading all of the [ previa ] reports, we had a pretty good idea that our looking-forward expectations was the most topical for everyone. So why don't I spend a little time here, so everybody can get a better sense on how we're feeling about the business and what we're dealing with? And if we need a double-click on any categories or what have you, between the 3 of us, I'm sure we can provide more color, if I don't hit the mark. When we think about looking forward, Irene, we think about it on 2 time lines: post-pandemic and right now, while we're still in it. I'll start with how we're feeling post pandemic, because I think it's important. I mean, look, I feel really good about the fact that we have a competitive omnichannel offering. I think there was some question about our ability to compete in a digital world, pre-pandemic, and I don't think anybody should doubt our ability now. We're run rating for an e-commerce business north of $2 billion. We engage customers with many options for fulfillment across all banners and can offer the customer more control over their online orders. Our digital marketing capabilities are strong. Our owned brand portfolio is strong and growing. We have traction around cost leverage and a more disciplined way about us with regards to expense control. Our customer analytics with Triangle, both credit card and base loyalty, are evolving rapidly. And we have tremendous reach with Canadians. I think we're making great strides from a social impact standpoint. Our culture is in a great spot as is our relationship with our associate dealers. We're attracting and keeping strong talent, and we're in a strong financial position. I mean, there's a lot to like right now. And although there has no doubt been short-term tailwinds for the demand side of our business, we do feel confident that some of the trends we're seeing here have staying power. If you look at the strength of the housing market and home turnover, the unprecedented level of household savings, the secular focus on wellness; these should help bolster demand for our categories, even once spending on travel and entertainment starts to bounce back. We believe we're continuing to build market share, especially as we acquire and engage new customers through Triangle and Canadians are reintroduced to Canadian Tire. So we feel confident in our ability to continue to grow share and the top line in the future and emerge from the pandemic in a stronger earnings position than when we entered it. But as I said in my prepared remarks, COVID-19 is not done with us yet. It's still obviously very difficult to predict the future right now, still lots of uncertainty. We aren't a food or drug retailer. So unlike others who are providing visibility, we're dealing with significant restrictions and closures impacting our business right now today. So I think I would start in the more short term, with the biggest understatement I could deliver, and that it's really hard to forecast the top line looking forward. I wouldn't have forecasted the restrictions we find ourselves in, if you asked me a few weeks or months ago. So asking me to comment on a few months out is near possible. Look, here's what I know. We had a strong April, which we called out in our remarks, but we have more than 2/3 of the second quarter in front of us in terms of sales. And the numerator gets much bigger as we are now comping weeks where stores were reopened and had large sales increases last year. And I don't -- I still don't know when our stores are going to open in Ontario, and it's 40% of our revenue. So this is why it's so difficult. You've heard me talk about the fact we plan in seasons, and we're doing the best we can to try and plan as close into customer demand activity as possible. What I can tell you with certainty is that we are buying inventory to support incremental growth in the business. We're ready and the dealers are ready. And I think that's just what you need to do to be ready for in this type of environment. We're really good at sourcing inventory. We're using all of our capabilities. We're using our relationships and our track record with vendors to buy and be a strong channel and partner for them. We can give them growth and reliable payments, which is pretty attractive right now. But figuring out the staying power on the top line is the toughest and most critical. When decisions like shutdowns are still in our midst, volatile sales activity is what results. So hopefully, as we move through Q2 here, and we have a few regions. You pick a region like BC as an example or Ontario when it reopens, where the comparative periods have less noise, we should be in a much better position to glean more insight in terms of customer demand patterns and unpack some of that color for you in our next call.

[Irene Ora Nattel]

That's really great and really helpful. Just a follow-up, if I might, which is, obviously, now with Triangle and the growth through the credit card and membership, you have a lot of very granular data. So what is your granular data showing you about the purchasing patterns of your customers year-over-year and also sort of your share of consumer wallet in key categories versus other retailers?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

I'd say one of the things that we're seeing that's interesting, Irene, is towards the end of the quarter, the spend heat maps in our credit card by category started to go green in categories that have been red for 12 to 14 months, when you look at spend categories like auto, spend categories like travel, spend categories like dining and restaurants. So that is most likely -- those are national heat apps. So it's most likely being driven by regions outside of Ontario. But I think those are interesting trends in terms of what we're seeing from a customer pattern standpoint. I think we called out the fact that what's different for us this quarter is we're starting to see a good rebound in the automotive business. It seems to be preparation for travel. Our tire business is strong. When you think about rooftop carriers, outdoor recreation, et cetera, we're seeing good bounce in those categories right now. So those would be some of the nuances and some of the windows we would have that would indicate that there are different mindsets emerging with Canadians right now. And as you point out, we do have those nice data windows with some of them potentially being lead indicators for us as we start to plan the rest of the year.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Mark Petrie with CIBC.

[Mark Robert Petrie]

Greg, I just want to follow up on one of your comments there. Obviously, it's impossible to predict retail sales patterns, particularly into the second half of the year given the big comps that you guys are going to be lapping. But the comment with regard to buying inventory to support growth, was that geared towards the second half? Is that the sort of time frame you're talking about?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Well, I'd say it's just our overall mindset and approach to the whole business, Mark. It's certainly, as we talked about before, was the way we -- again, we keep talking to you about planning the business in 7 seasons is the way we plan for the first few seasons here that helped here in the first quarter. It's the way we would have planned in terms of our approach for Q2. And it's the way we're planning for Q3 and Q4. I mean, as we move forward here, we'll get some indicators from our dealers in terms of how bullish they are on some of the categories where they ended up quite lean last year. TJ can probably speak to this. I would say they have very bullish mindsets. I mean they're continuing to order, and they find themselves, as we alluded to in our Q4 call, pretty lean in some important categories for Q3-Q4 businesses as we approach the -- as we approach those seasons. So TJ, if you want to add any more color to that?

[Thomas J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail]

Yes. Mark, it's TJ. One other piece I'd like to just kind of highlight when you're contemplating our investments in inventory is we had significant growth last year, kind of multiple years of growth happening in 1 year. And for us, whether you look at it from the corporate side or from the dealer side, effectively, we've had a step function change in terms of the size of our business. And we have to inventory up in order to continue at that pace and grow beyond it. So you're seeing us act accordingly and buying quite aggressively, and you're also seeing the dealers do the exact same thing. They recognize from a dealer perspective that inventory is the fuel that drives our growth, and they've been very aggressive year-to-date coming off a year in the spring/summer categories where we depleted a lot of inventory. The consumer demand last year just far outpaced the supply that we had, even despite the fact that we brought in as much as we did last year. So overall, we're kind of in this position of rightsizing the business, so to speak, from an inventory perspective. And we're going to continue to buy aggressively because what we don't know is what restrictions are going to happen and those types of things. But what we do know so far is that when we're unfettered, our consumer demand still is strong, and we want to put ourselves in the best position to deliver against whatever consumer demand is there. So that's the approach we're taking.

[Mark Robert Petrie]

Okay. That's very helpful. And I guess just to clarify, I mean, obviously, there are some categories where inventory is really lean in the market, but it sounds like you don't expect that to be a material headwind for you, at least in the next -- or basically through all of this year. Is that a fair statement?

[Thomas J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail]

Yes. I would say that there are definitely some categories that we continue to chase and that there's demand that's outpacing our ability to supply, but we are aggressive on chasing that inventory, where a couple of categories that have continued to kind of really push hard even into Q2 after strong in Q1 would be like backyard furniture and things like that. So we're still trying to be aggressive to buy those. So I wouldn't say we're out of the woods on supply entirely, and there's certainly some categories that we're going to be chasing. But we're feeling like we've put our best foot forward in aggregate to drive growth.

[Mark Robert Petrie]

And lots of discussion about higher costs out there be it commodities, freight, labor. Obviously, the model gives you a ton of flexibility to navigate that type of volatility across promotions, loyalty, assortment. But where are you seeing the greatest movement in your costs? And obviously, FX, I guess, would offset some of this depending on timing. But generally speaking, is most of the higher costs being passed through? Or are you absorbing it? Or maybe you can just talk about that topic.

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Yes, why don't I take that, Mark? It's Greg. We certainly -- inflation is pretty topical right now. I think Greg alluded to it, Gregory alluded to it, in his prepared remarks. There was no -- let me speak about Q1 first. There's no material inflation impact to our COGS in Q1 nor do we expect any material inflation for our Q2 receipts. The 2 big drivers right now, commodity inflation and global supply chain demand are driving freight costs. So I don't think those are new to anybody. But given this, we do expect to see modest impacts in our COGS receipts in the back half, varying significantly by category. Products largely comprised of plastics would be the extreme cases. And looking forward, our expectation is an expectation that commodity prices will remain elevated through the first half of 2022, and then will likely taper off and retreat as demand normalizes with changes to consumer behavior and spending patterns. But there are offsets to the headwinds posed by the commodity inflation. First, the Canadian dollar has appreciated against both the U.S. dollar and the Chinese RMB, which is favorable. Now as you know, we hedge. So our glide path to benefit here isn't immediate, but we do see our effective hedge rate improving as we move to the back half and into 2022. And on the freight side, even though the ocean freight spot market is setting record highs, a large percentage of our container volume, Mark, is protected at contracted rates. This is a real benefit for us relative to smaller importers as they're dealing with not only massive cost increases, but availability and space issues as well. So given what's going on, we feel like we're in good shape to make it much less material than what it might look like for others. We have solid capabilities and relationships, and we're definitely using them to our advantage right now. TJ has talked about the fact that we're not going to give an inch competitively. So trying to forecast what will maneuver its way through to the customer will kind of be determined by that competitive intensity. But hopefully, that gives you some flavor in terms of how we're thinking about dealing with it.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Patricia Baker with Scotiabank.

[Patricia A. Baker, Analyst]

I just want to talk a little bit about the strong sales in the quarter, which were phenomenal. And as you noted, unprecedented. And I guess, in part, that's owed to your unique and really, I guess, favorable assortment. And you referenced the fact that you're seeing market share gains. So I'd be curious if you could talk a little bit about where you think those share gains are coming from, and the primary reasons you think you're gaining share. And then trying to square that a little bit with TJ's comments around inventory, it certainly sounds like the corporation and the dealers feel that those share gains based on TJ's comments are something that is sustainable. And you expect that you will continue to keep those gains.

[Thomas J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail]

Yes. Patricia, it's TJ. I'll talk a little bit about share in Q1. Overall, by all measures, we measure share in various ways with various outside kind of parties as well as our inside data. We feel like we gained market share in Q1, that despite some significant store closures early in January into mid-February. I think there's a lot of substitution spend that we're benefiting from. As Greg alluded to earlier, a lot of kind of spend that traditionally might have gone into travel or entertainment is heading towards the categories in which we compete, as folks are hunkered down in their homes and looking for ways to entertain themselves with boredom busters and things like that. I do believe and our dealers do believe as well that inventory has helped power a lot of our share gain. We took aggressive stances as we went into Q1. We went back all the way to September of last year, understood where consumer trends were heading, and we bought aggressively, knowing as well that we had a bunch of pent-up demand. So I think there was a lot of executional elements that drove our share gain. And we believe that we have the ability to sustain the share. What we don't have in our control is what restrictions we're going to be up against. What we know is when we're an omnichannel retailer fully open with both our e-com capabilities and our stores, we do extraordinarily well. And we think we have the opportunity to continue there, just given the trajectory we've been on. So I do believe we think we can continue to drive those share gains.

[Patricia A. Baker, Analyst]

Okay. And my second question, follow-up question, is on Financial Services. So in the comments on Financial Services, I think, Gregory, you mentioned the fact that you will continue to work at acquiring new customers. And you had a lot of new Triangle members in the first quarter. Where do you think, ultimately, in terms of penetration of Canadian households, memberships, either in Triangle or a customer acquisition for the credit card, is there a limit on where that -- that that should net out?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Maybe I'll take that, Patricia, because it's wrapped up in Triangle, too. We do believe with our capabilities and the value proposition that we have a meaningful opportunity to grow the total active file or card base in Financial Services, where you heard us talk a lot about integration between the bank and retail being critically important. We believe that wholeheartedly moving forward. Our best customer acquisition vehicle right now is the stores. So that hampers our ability to grow the card base in a material way. Now having said that, we're quite happy with card acquisition in the quarter, which was quite strong. And we set aggressive targets for ourselves in terms of what that looks like for this year. In terms of total household penetration, we're sitting in that kind of 10% to 10.5% range right now in terms of an active file. I think you heard me talk about our owned audience, and we're putting a lot of focus and effort on owned audience right now. That's a $12 million -- that's at $12 million. So there's more reach in our owned audiences. Those are people who have opted into our app or our e-mail from a notification standpoint. So we do believe there's an opportunity for us to grow total household penetration of a Triangle membership program. And the more kind of universe of Canadian households that are part of the program, it's a pretty good acquisition lead for the credit card. I know Gregory wants to weigh in here, too.

[Gregory George Craig, CFO & Executive VP]

Yes, I just want -- I wanted to emphasize that last point, Patricia, is if you think about it, I mean, as you know, the store is the main source of acquisition. It's just such a rich pool of customers for financial services. And for all intents and purposes, we've been -- we haven't really been in the store for the last 12 months in any scalable manner. So when we feel comfortable that we can go back safely for, as I said, customers and employees, I think there's lots of availability to grow. And I just wanted to echo Greg's comment around a really healthy way to grow the card business is as well to convert loyalty customers to credit card customers. And I think as we continue to integrate Triangle even more, I just think the pool for the Financial Services division to continue to bring more customers, other ways to earn Canadian Tire money, is even vaster. So I think the opportunities are there. It's just we just -- again, I think we want to be careful about not going too quickly with the store acquisition side of it. So it's -- I think we're still a little bit away from that, Patricia. But once we get through in the world is, knock on wood, back to some sense of normality again, I think we're very optimistic about being able to grow that card file again.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Brian Morrison with TD Securities.

[Brian Morrison, Research Analyst]

Gregory, can I stick with Financial Services here? You've got this allowance release again this quarter. You've got commentary on improved savings rates. And then I would say with the improved economic outlook, should we expect this release trend to continue throughout the year? The allowance provision is still well above the pre-pandemic levels and GAR is lower. And then just following up on that, it's very encouraging to see your 7.1% increase in card spend. Can you just kind of outline for us where card spend is relative to pre-pandemic levels?

[Gregory George Craig, CFO & Executive VP]

Yes. So Brian, it's Gregory here. Let me take that one. I'll start with the allowance, first and foremost. And you know how we do this, which every quarter we take a look at what the allowance is and all the factors and make assessments on -- as we're looking forward, because it is a lifetime loss estimate. It's not losses in the next 12 months. It's lifetime. And where we ended the quarter, we feel very good and very comfortable. We have simple way to look at it is look at the allowance dollars and look at your last 12 months of actual write-offs. We have over 3 years of losses on the balance sheet right now in our allowance. So we feel pretty good about that from a coverage perspective. And I just want to -- I know there's lots of questions about releasing more allowance, et cetera, et cetera. I would just point you back to the data that was just released on unemployment, what, about 1.5 weeks ago, where -- I mean, it didn't surprise us, where given the restrictions, the unemployment rate, I think, went from 7.5% in March to 8.1% in April. Now again, given restrictions and what that did to job loss, we weren't surprised. But I just -- I think Greg said, I don't think we're through this yet. So we watch the trends very carefully, the macroeconomic ones. We're very encouraged by the credit risk metrics. But it is really a quarter-by-quarter assessment on getting through what this data looks like. And that's probably the best I can give you around where we are. We're very comfortable, and we will continue to look every quarter and take the appropriate action when we get a sense of what that information looks like. In terms of card spend, I think -- maybe I'll answer the question this way. I was thrilled with 7.1% growth in the first quarter. What the team is focused on is more the active account side of it. So if you take a look, our active accounts would have been down 4% and versus Q1 a year ago. And that gets to what I think Patricia was asking, and you've asked as well previously around when are we going to start kind of be able to get that acquisition engine humming again. So look, if we could get a 7% growth in card spend per active member, that's pretty strong. The focus, I think, really is going to be on, again, when can we get that channel, in-store channel, open safely. And I think continued integration with retail will just drive both of those numbers. I think there's a chance you could see higher -- certainly in acquisitions and potentially even on the sales-per-account side.

[Brian Morrison, Research Analyst]

Okay. And then follow-up question on the retail, maybe for TJ or for Greg. And I'm not sure you can answer this question, but you've talked about how demand at CTR remains off the charts. The dealers remain very bullish. You've had this great variability in the last several quarters with respect to revenue and retail. When can we expect that this should be back in equilibrium? Like should we expect that in coming quarters? Or are we still going to have this revenue growth in excess of retail?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

This is Greg. You're right. That is difficult to answer. Listen, I've been around the CTR business for a good amount of time, and it's tough for me to assess and model in my mind. So I can appreciate how difficult it is for your models. I think the most important thing to ground on is what TJ said before, is the fact that we're trying to support a step-function change in our revenue. And in order to support a much higher waterline in revenue we need to buy for it. So while the really difficult thing going forward, as I said earlier, is what's going to happen with the customer in terms of demand when we get back to normal. The one thing I feel strongly about is that we will eventually settle into similar inventory turns profiles. Ideally, we get some efficiency. We're seeing that relative to 2019 right now. But the so-called plug in the bottle, if there is one, especially for the dealers, are turns. So I'd think about these factors when you're modeling out revenue. There's certainly what I would call some initial fill requirements this year, given where we ended seasons last year. So there's buying for a heightened rate of sale, but also to fill the pipeline. And what I know is that this is for sure the case in the short term, this initial fill phenomenon. What I also know is that if we fill the network up, and then sales fall off that this will impact your modeling for revenue in 2022. So from that standpoint, understanding the model and relationship between sales and revenue is pretty easy. So all that to say, I think the customer is going to dictate the volatility going forward, and we're just going to be ready in the short-term from a demand standpoint. So hopefully, that's helpful a little bit.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Peter Sklar with BMO Capital Markets.

[Peter Sklar, Analyst]

I'm just wondering if you could talk a little bit about the performance of the Ontario Canadian Tire bannered store. So my understanding during the lockdowns would have been that you would not have allowed store pickup. So the customer was not allowed to come into the store to pick up. So you were limited to curbside. So earlier in your discussion points, you were talking about how well pickup is doing. So if my description of what you were allowed to do and not allowed to do was correct, can you talk about how the Ontario stores did, given that they were limited to curbside?

[Thomas J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail]

Yes. Peter, it's TJ. I can take that one. You are correct in your assessment for how the Ontario stores had to operate. Pretty much starting Boxing Day right until mid-February, we were only open for curbside service through our e-comm channel and also by appointment within auto service. So during that time frame, our sales were, I would call them resilient. We were obviously down, comping what we would have when we would have been fully opened. But then we also saw a kind of pent-up demand phenomenon when we opened back up in March and finished the quarter very strong in Ontario. As you go into Q2, it's a little bit different from a comp perspective because the restrictions are there. But up until a couple of days ago, we had similar restrictions last year. So right now, as we're sitting in Ontario, we've had quite strong sales in Ontario up until the last couple of days because now we're starting to comp being open last year, not only open, but open with massive pent-up demand after being closed for a month. So a lot of variability in performance when you're opening and closing like that. But hopefully, that gives you some color on how we performed.

[Peter Sklar, Analyst]

Yes. No, I get that. That was good. And then my follow-up question is, like as you know, due to the generous benefits that are being offered by the federal government in terms of wage supplementation, are the dealers having any trouble getting people to come into work? Is that an issue for them?

[Thomas J. Flood, President of Canadian Tire Retail]

Yes. Peter, it's TJ. Over time since the pandemic started, labor is always something that we're levering up and down. And I think as the demand at Canadian Tire went up extraordinarily in a very short period of time, there definitely were some challenges getting labor across the country. But our dealers do an extraordinarily strong job of managing their business very tightly that way. They've upped their recruiting efforts and those types of things. But I think it's safe to say that labor has been in certain markets, particularly in some of the markets at West and in Ontario, it has been tough at times to get labor. And it continues to be as we go forward here. Okay.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Vishal Shreedhar with National Bank.

[Vishal Shreedhar, Analyst]

I just wanted to get your perspective on the margin sharing arrangements with the dealers at CTR. Given the large comps in Q1, should we expect a favorable true-up in coming quarters related to that agreement? And if so, when should we expect it? And can you offer us any help on how we should think about that benefit of it, if it in fact is expected to come?

[Gregory George Craig, CFO & Executive VP]

It's Gregory here. I'll take that one, Vishal, and you can ask a follow-up hard accounting question for TJ. I think, as you know, the complexity with the margin sharing arrangement is when our dealer year-ends are, right? So they're not all in one day. So if we have 492 odd dealers, they kind of vary throughout the year. So to answer your question, when we do the accrual, we're doing it kind of based on year-end and projection. So we actually did a true-up this quarter for our estimate that we made in Q4, because we had some more dealer return year-ends come in. And we did actually increase the accrual a little bit. So we did increase the margin a little bit relative -- not anything near what we would have done to Q4. That's why we really didn't call it out, because it wasn't nearly as significant as it would have been in the previous quarter. But there'll be an adjustment in Q1, and there might be a small adjustment in Q2, depending on the returns that kind of cascade in. As it relates to what we'll book in Q4 of this year, there's lots of time left. So yes, it's a good start to the dealers with the comp that you've seen, but there's lots of year left. And I think we'll be in a better position to talk a little bit more about that, maybe kind of certainly Q3-Q4. But it's early to talk about kind of what we'll think about for MSA in the fourth quarter at this stage, I would say.

[Vishal Shreedhar, Analyst]

Okay. And just in terms of the characteristic of it, is if the retail sales come in stronger than CTR plan, then there's a true-up going back to the corporate. Is that a fair way to think about it?

[Gregory George Craig, CFO & Executive VP]

Well, it's broader than just sales, right? Think of dealer profitability. So it's -- you've got to remember, they've got to manage margins. They've got inventory. They've got personnel costs, et cetera. So you have to look at the overall kind of 4-wall profitability is how I would say it. So the fact that sales are up, let's not kid ourselves. That's a great sign. But there's more to it than just sales being up, just so we're all clear.

[Vishal Shreedhar, Analyst]

Okay. In terms of the owned brand strategy, there seems to be continued traction with that. And I'm wondering how management reflects upon that strategy, if anything has changed, and should we expect more acquisitions of brands looking forward?

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

We're really happy, Vishal, with the performance of owned brands. I think we called out the performance in the quarter. We saw great penetration rate increases to the tune of I think, 250 basis points in CTR. We're seeing continued penetration momentum in Sport Chek. We called out bikes as a shining owned brand example in Sport Chek. I think we've talked to you about the fact that we feel good about the national brand to owned brand mix in Mark's on an ongoing basis. So the real benefit for accretive penetration is going to come through Sport Chek and through CTR, and we have multiyear plans by category in terms of both of those banners for further penetration in all levels of architecture in the assortment. As it relates to acquisitions, I think you've heard us say before, we've always got our ears open. If you asked me that question 3 years ago, I would have identified gaps in the Canadian Tire assortment in categories like bikes at the good kind of architecture level, in our kitchen business at the better architecture level. And now those gaps have been plugged by acquisition. So I'll probably stop short of telling you the categories where we believe we have gaps, but suffice it to say we do, and we're always on the lookout for filling them. And hopefully, they end up being screaming successes like Raleigh and Diamondback.

[Operator]

That is all the time we have for questions. I will turn the call over to Greg Hicks, President and CEO, for any closing remarks.

[Gregory Huber Hicks, CEO, President & Executive Director]

Thanks, Valerie, and thank you, again, everybody, for joining us today. I hope the next time we speak we're all well on our way to widespread vaccination and finally reaching the other side of this pandemic. We'll speak to you in August. Goodbye.

[Operator]

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.