Canadian National Railway Co
TSX:CNR
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CNR stock under the Base Case scenario is 161.54 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 155.53 CAD, Canadian National Railway Co is Undervalued by 4%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Canadian National Railway Co
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Fundamental Analysis
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Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) stands as a vital artery of North America's transportation network, a company that not only connects markets but also drives economic growth across the continent. Established in 1919, CN has evolved into one of the largest freight rail networks in the world, spanning over 19,600 miles of track in Canada and the United States. What sets CN apart is its integrated operations, which involve transporting a diverse array of goods—ranging from agricultural products to automotive freight and intermodal containers. This strategic positioning allows the company to capitalize on the increasing demand for freight services, enhanced by the growing economies of the area...
Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) stands as a vital artery of North America's transportation network, a company that not only connects markets but also drives economic growth across the continent. Established in 1919, CN has evolved into one of the largest freight rail networks in the world, spanning over 19,600 miles of track in Canada and the United States. What sets CN apart is its integrated operations, which involve transporting a diverse array of goods—ranging from agricultural products to automotive freight and intermodal containers. This strategic positioning allows the company to capitalize on the increasing demand for freight services, enhanced by the growing economies of the areas it services.
For investors, CN represents a compelling opportunity characterized by strong fundamentals, scalability, and a commitment to efficiency. The company has a solid track record of financial performance, consistently delivering robust revenue growth and cash flow generation, underpinned by its operational excellence. With a focus on sustainability and technological innovation, CN is not only modernizing its fleet and improving service reliability but also addressing environmental concerns that resonate with today's market. As the demand for rail transportation rises, driven by increased freight volumes and a shift towards more sustainable logistics solutions, CN stands poised to leverage its unique strengths, offering investors both stability and the potential for long-term capital appreciation.
Canadian National Railway Company (CN) is one of the largest rail networks in North America, and its operations are divided into various core business segments. These segments enable CN to serve a diverse set of industries and maintain a competitive advantage in the logistics and transportation sectors. The primary business segments of CN can be categorized as follows:
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Freight Transportation: This is the main revenue generator for CN and consists of several sub-segments:
- Intermodal: This includes the transportation of shipping containers and trailers using multiple modes of transport. It caters primarily to the retail and consumer goods sectors.
- Bulk: This segment involves the transport of bulk commodities such as coal, grain, fertilizers, and forest products.
- Carload: This includes a variety of goods transported in individual railcars, such as automotive products, chemicals, and metals.
- Automotive: CN transports finished vehicles for manufacturers, leveraging its extensive network to serve automakers.
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Rail Operations and Infrastructure: This segment includes the management and operation of the railway infrastructure, encompassing track maintenance, signaling, and facilities that support rail operations. This is crucial for maintaining safety and efficiency across the network.
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Logistics and Supply Chain Services: CN has expanded its services to include logistics solutions and supply chain management, helping customers optimize their transportation needs. This includes value-added services such as warehousing and terminal operations.
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Energy: CN plays a significant role in transporting energy products, which includes crude oil, natural gas, and related energy commodities. This segment has gained importance with the growing energy sector in Canada and the U.S.
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Forest Products: CN is a key player in transporting forest products, including lumber, paper, and other wood-related products. This is vital for supporting Canada’s forestry industry.
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Mining: The transportation of mining products, such as potash, sulfur, and metals, represents another core segment. CN services various mining operations, linking them to domestic and international markets.
By diversifying its operations across these core business segments, Canadian National Railway can mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in specific markets while providing comprehensive transportation solutions to its customers. This strategic segmentation is aligned with the principles of long-term value creation championed by analysts and investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.
Canadian National Railway Co. (CN) has several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the North American rail industry:
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Geographic Scope: CN has a vast and diverse network that spans from coast to coast in Canada and extends deep into the United States. This extensive reach allows CN to offer a more comprehensive range of transportation services, reaching key markets and customers more effectively.
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Operational Efficiency: CN is known for its commitment to operational excellence, with strong focus on precision railroading concepts. This approach emphasizes maximizing asset utilization and minimizing dwell time, allowing CN to offer reliable and faster service compared to competitors.
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Diversified Business Portfolio: CN serves multiple segments, including intermodal, automotive, forest products, and crude oil among others. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with economic downturns in specific sectors.
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Strong Financial Position: With a history of solid profitability and cash flow generation, CN maintains a strong balance sheet. This financial strength allows for reinvestment in infrastructure and technology, which further enhances its competitive position.
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Investment in Technology: CN has been proactive in adopting advanced technologies, such as automation and data analytics to optimize operations, improve safety, and enhance customer service. This technological edge can lead to cost savings and improved efficiency.
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Sustainability Initiatives: As environmental concerns grow, CN’s focus on sustainability and reducing carbon emissions finds favor with increasingly eco-conscious customers. Efficient rail transport is inherently more fuel-efficient than trucking, and CN's initiatives help position it favorably in a marketplace that values sustainability.
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Strong Customer Relationships: CN has built long-standing relationships with key industries and customers, providing a level of service and reliability that fosters customer loyalty and repeat business.
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Strategic Partnerships: The company has developed strategic intermodal partnerships that enhance its service offerings and improve connectivity with other transportation modes, boosting its competitiveness in the logistics chain.
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Regulatory Environment: The Canadian railway industry operates under specific regulations that can provide incumbents with a more stable market structure, creating barriers for new entrants which can be advantageous for established players like CN.
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Strong Brand Recognition: As a well-established player in the industry, CN benefits from brand trust and recognition, giving it a competitive edge in attracting and retaining customers.
Leveraging these advantages allows Canadian National Railway Co. to position itself favorably against its rivals in the rail transportation sector.
Canadian National Railway Co (CN) faces several risks and challenges that could impact its operations and profitability in the near future:
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Economic Fluctuations: The railway industry is closely tied to economic conditions. A slowdown in the economy could reduce demand for freight services, affecting CN’s revenue.
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Regulatory Environment: CN operates in a heavily regulated industry. Changes in regulations related to safety, environmental standards, or labor could impose additional costs or operational constraints.
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Labor Relations: Any disputes with labor unions can lead to strikes or work stoppages, which can disrupt operations and impact service reliability.
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Competition: CN faces competition from other railways and alternative transportation modes like trucking, which can pressure pricing and market share.
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Technological Changes: The need to invest in technology for efficiency and safety, such as tracking systems and automated operations, can represent a significant capital expenditure and operational challenge.
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Environmental and Sustainability Issues: Increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a shift towards more sustainable practices can challenge operations and necessitate investment in cleaner technologies.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global events, such as pandemics or geopolitical tensions, can disrupt supply chains, affecting CN's operations and the volume of goods transported.
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Infrastructure Investment: Aging infrastructure may require significant investment to maintain safety and efficiency, which can be financially burdensome.
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Weather and Climate Change: Severe weather events, possibly exacerbated by climate change, could disrupt operations, impact rail infrastructure, and affect service reliability.
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Market Diversification: CN's reliance on specific commodities (like grain, forestry products, or crude oil) makes it vulnerable to downturns in those sectors. A lack of diversification can be a risk.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As CN continues to modernize its operations and adopt new technologies, the risk of cyberattacks increases, which can threaten data integrity and operational continuity.
Addressing these challenges requires a strategic approach, including risk management practices, investment in technology, and operations flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Canadian National Railway Co
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Canadian National Railway Co
Current Assets | 3B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 273m |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 1.5B |
Non-Current Assets | 51.4B |
PP&E | 46.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 4.9B |
Current Liabilities | 4.7B |
Accounts Payable | 2.6B |
Short-Term Debt | 873m |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 30.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 18.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 11.7B |
Earnings Waterfall
Canadian National Railway Co
Revenue
|
17.2B
CAD
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Cost of Revenue
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-4.4B
CAD
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Gross Profit
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12.7B
CAD
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Operating Expenses
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-6.2B
CAD
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Operating Income
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6.5B
CAD
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Other Expenses
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-1.1B
CAD
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Net Income
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5.4B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Canadian National Railway Co
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
In the latest earnings call, CN reported a 2% increase in diluted EPS and a 3% growth in revenue, despite challenges from wildfires and labor strikes. They expect low single-digit adjusted EPS growth for 2024 due to sluggish industrial production. However, growth initiatives signal potential for a 3-5% increase in RTM volumes. Margins are projected to improve in Q4 as they align resources with volume expectations, having previously maintained a 63.1% operating ratio. Strong demand for Canadian grain and specific projects are likely to drive growth, reaffirming their outlook of high single-digit EPS CAGR through 2026.
What is Earnings Call?
CNR Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Canadian National Railway Co's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Canadian National Railway Co's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CNR Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Canadian National Railway Co's solvency score is 40/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Canadian National Railway Co's solvency score is 40/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CNR Price Targets Summary
Canadian National Railway Co
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNR is 177.75 CAD with a low forecast of 136.35 CAD and a high forecast of 210 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CNR is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Canadian National Railway Co. engages in rail and related transportation business. The company is headquartered in Montreal, Quebec and currently employs 22,604 full-time employees. The firm's network of route miles of track spans Canada and the United States. Its network and connections to all Class I railroads provide its customers access to Canada, the United States and Mexico. The company transports over 300 million tons of cargo annually, serving exporters, importers, retailers, farmers and manufacturers. The company offers its goods annually for a range of business sectors, ranging from resource products to manufactured products to consumer goods. Its services include rail, intermodal, trucking, supply chain services, business development, and maps and network. The company offers its services across industries, such as automotive, coal, fertilizer, food and beverages, forest products, dimensional loads, grain, metals and minerals, petroleum and chemicals, consumer goods, customer reports, centerbeam auction program and boxcar auction program.
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The intrinsic value of one CNR stock under the Base Case scenario is 161.54 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 155.53 CAD, Canadian National Railway Co is Undervalued by 4%.