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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to CCL Industries' Third Quarter Investor Update. Please note that there will be a question-and-answer session after the call. The moderator for today is Mr. Geoff Martin, President and Chief Executive Officer. And joining him is Mr. Sean Washchuk, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, gentlemen.
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to our third quarter investor update. I'm going to hand the call over straight away to Sean Washchuk, who'll take you through the numbers.
Thank you, Geoff. I'll turn everyone's attention to Slide #2, our disclaimer regarding forward-looking information. I'll remind everyone that our business faces known and unknown risks and opportunities. For further details of these key risks, please take a look at our 2020 annual MD&A, particularly the section Risks & Uncertainties. Our annual and quarterly reports can be found online at the company's website, cclind.com or on sedar.com. Thank you.Moving ahead. For the third quarter of 2021, sales increased 8.4%, with organic growth of 10.3%, acquisition-related growth of 2.2%, partially offset by 4.1% negative impact from foreign currency translation, resulting in sales of CAD 1.49 billion compared to CAD 1.37 billion in the third quarter of 2020.Operating income was CAD 223.9 million for the 2021 third quarter compared to CAD 246.3 million for the third quarter of 2020, a 5% decline excluding the impact of foreign currency translation. Geoff will expand on our segmented operating results for our CCL, Avery, Checkpoint and Innovia segments.Consolidated EBITDA for the 2021 third quarter, excluding the impact of foreign currency translation, decreased approximately 3% compared to the same period in 2020. Net finance expense was CAD CAD 14.2 million for the third quarter of 2021 compared to CAD 16.4 million for the 2020 third quarter. The decrease in net finance costs is due to the lower average debt outstanding for the comparative quarterly periods. The overall effective tax rate was 24.1% for the 2021 third quarter, down from 25.1% effective tax rate recorded in the third quarter of 2020. The effective tax rate may change in future periods depending on the proportion of taxable income earned in different tax jurisdictions with different tax rates.Net earnings for the 2021 third quarter was CAD 153.3 million, in line with the prior year comparative quarter, but up 5%, excluding foreign currency translation.For the 9-month period, sales increased 14%, operating income increased 16% and net earnings increased 23%, excluding the impact of foreign currency translation on the 9-month period. 2021 included results from 13 acquisitions completed since January 1, 2020, delivering acquisition-related sales growth for the period of 2.1%, organic sales growth of 11.5% and foreign currency translation headwind of 4.5% to sales.Moving to earnings per share. Basic earnings per Class B share were CAD 0.85 for the third quarter of 2021 compared to CAD 0.86 for the third quarter of 2020. Adjusted basic earnings per Class B share were CAD 0.85 for the 2021 third quarter compared to adjusted basic earnings per Class B share of CAD 0.93 for the third quarter of 2020. The change in adjusted basic earnings per share to CAD 0.85 from CAD 0.93 is primarily attributable to a decrease in operating income of CAD 0.05, CAD 0.04 negative foreign currency translation, offset by a CAD 0.01 reduction in tax rate.For the 2021 9-month period, the CAD 0.32 increase in adjusted basic earnings per Class B share was largely due to CAD 0.42 from increased operating income, offset by CAD 0.11 from foreign currency translation and increases in corporate expenses of CAD 0.06, offset by a similar reduction of CAD 0.06 from lower taxes and lower interest expense of CAD 0.01. This resulted in adjusted basic earnings per share of CAD 2.56 for the 2021 9-month period compared to CAD 2.24 for the 2020 9-month period.Free cash flow from operations for the third quarter of 2021 was CAD 152.4 million compared to CAD 230.4 million for the 2020 third quarter. An increase in cash taxes paid and net capital expenditures, coupled with the retrenchment of net working capital, reduced free cash flow from operations and cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2021 compared to the third quarter of 2020.For the 12 months ended September 30, 2021, free cash flow from operations decreased CAD 13.4 million compared to the 12 months ended September 30, 2020. This comparative decline is attributable to an increase in net capital spending over the trailing 12-month period.Our cash and debt summary. Net debt as at September 30, 2021, was CAD 1.25 billion, a decrease of approximately CAD 144 million compared to December 31, 2020. This decrease is principally a result of debt repayments during the first 9 months of the year, partially offset by a decrease in cash on hand at September 30, 2021, compared to December 31, 2020. The company's balance sheet closed the quarter in a strong position.Our balance sheet leverage ratio was 1.06x, declining from 1.24x at the end of December 31, 2020. Our liquidity was robust with CAD 622.5 million of cash on hand and $1.2 billion of available undrawn credit capacity on the company's revolving bank credit facility. The company expects to repay the current portion of its long-term debt from its free cash flow or from its bank revolving credit facility in the near term.The company's overall finance rate was largely unchanged at approximately 2.4% at September 30, 2021, compared to 2.3% at December 31, 2020. The company's balance sheet continues to be well positioned as we move through 2021 and into 2022.Geoff, over to you.
Thank you, Sean. Hello again, everybody. I'm on Slide #7, highlights the capital spending for the year, CAD 197 million net of disposals, a little lower than we would have liked really due to supply chain issues also in the machine building industry, slowing up the rate of pace of our investments here. But we expect to spend about CAD 100 million in the remaining quarter of the year and CAD 300 million for the year of 2021 in total.Slide #8, highlights for the CCL segment. Regional organic sales growth up mid-single digits in North America, double-digit in Latin America, a low single-digit decline in Europe. This was really due to the CCL Secure decline that impacted our organic growth globally. Excluding CCL Secure, organic growth in the other businesses of the segment was 6.4%. So I think I explained to you already ad nauseam, we had a large windfall banknote orders in the third quarter of 2020 last year, which boosted operating margins for last year considerably and also our top line.So just for historical reference, our operating margin reported in the year of 2019 was 15.3%, 14.4% in the year of 2018 and 13.3% in the year of 2017. So you can see quite clearly, the third quarter of 2020 last year was an unusual quarter to put it mildly.Operating income decline really came from the exceptionally tough comps of CCL Secure and the FX translation between the 2, it amounted to about CAD 30 million. But inflation was also a factor in raw materials, labor, freight and energy. Hard to quantify in such precise details, but it wouldn't be unreasonable to assume we were unable to recover about 100 basis points of sales in unrecovered inflationary impacts during the quarter.Next slide, Page 9, the highlights of our joint ventures. Solid quarter. Some challenges in Russia due to the foreign exchange with the ruble, but otherwise a solid quarter all around.Slide 10, the success story for the quarter, our results at Avery. This is our record quarter we've ever enjoyed with this business, both in absolute dollars and in operating margin, as everything recovered very nicely over a soft prior year period despite the foreign exchange rate translation challenges we've experienced in every business we have globally.We had a strong recovery in all regions and in all products. The one business that does still remain below normal is our event badge business, particularly in business conventions. But sports events and things of that, it will return to normality. And the category in total has vastly improved.The back-to-school season was much better than 2020 despite supply chain issues and significant freight and component inflation from China, where we source critical components for our back-to-school product lines. So we're very pleased with the results from Avery for the quarter.Moving on to Slide 11, highlights for Checkpoint. Very strong sales quarter, particularly in our Apparel Label business, which is up 30% on strong growth in RFID and the Uniter acquisition. However, our MAS business, which also grew in all regions of the world, except Asia Pacific, where many retailers remain under lock down restrictions, profitability, however, was impacted by normalizing expenses and significant freight and component inflation from China. And China is our source for most of the products we sell in that category, antenna, gates, labels, tags, all kinds of components that are sourced to run our MAS business come out of China, and we sell them all around the world. So freight and shipping costs from China as well as significant component inflation really was the cause of all the profit drop for the quarter.Moving on to Slide 12, highlights for Innovia. Very strong sales gain. Of that 44% sales gain that we see there, excluding FX, about 80% of that is really down to resin pass-through. The other 20% is down to volume improvements and mix. So it's roughly an 80:20 principle.So productivity and the volume gains that we enjoyed were largely offset to a very significant extent by energy and freight inflation and the effect of the U.K. pound strength against the U.S. dollar on export sales from a large operation in the U.K. to the United States.Polish EcoFloat plant investment is on-track for the end of 2021, early 2022 start-up. And we have seen some easing of the resin environment in the early months of early -- sorry, early days in November. So we've seen the first signs of some normality returning to resin markets.Slide 13, outlook commentary for the coming fourth quarter. Fourth quarter 2020 earnings were up 40% on a normal non pandemic affected pandemic comparative period in 2019. So it's a pretty high bar, especially at today's FX rates. We do expect things that Avery will continue to improve. Our Checkpoint business is in the middle of executing price increases to recover the inflation I talked about earlier on. Our CCL Design business will be affected by the chip shortage, not just in automotive, but also in the electronics space, where as the end supply chain challenges are affecting certain component availability in China for making certain devices.Core CCL units in Home & Personal Care and Food & Beverage and Healthcare & Specialty, we'll do well to match the results of the prior year quarter. But CCL Secure comps ease significantly. So we won't ever repeat of what we saw in Q3 because there were no windfall orders that we received in Q4 last year.As I mentioned earlier, resin markets have stabilized, but we'll still have to navigate through tough energy and freight inflation challenges with the Innovia business, especially in Europe. And we have to get through the EcoFloat transition and the large investment we're making in Poland, which will happen in Q4 and start off in Q1 next year.So with that, operator, we'd like to open up the call for questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first one is coming from Adam Josephson from KeyBanc.
Geoff and Sean, FX, can you help me with the current rates, what the drag would be either on sales or EPS this quarter?
Sean, do you want to take that? Talk about fourth quarter, Adam, or third quarter?
Yes. Just fourth quarter, Geoff.
Well, I think we saw so far, it's starting at about the same, and it's largely driven right now by the U.S. dollar and the euro, where I would have said earlier on this year, it was principally the U.S. dollar, but we're seeing both drag on sales right now.
The drag would be comparable. The earnings drag would be comparable year-over-year.
[ CAD 0.03 to CAD 0.04 ] probably.
Geoff, on the inflationary pressures that you talked about in the press release, you expect them to continue well into next year. Obviously, you're seeing some easing in resin prices in the U.S. and Europe, I believe you just said. So what are the inflationary pressures that you expect to persist well into next year? And then can you just elaborate on the measures that you talked about in the press release in trying to offset those pressures?
Well, they vary a lot by segment. So in the CCL space, it's more raw materials than it is freight. And the CCL space, most of our customers pick up from us, especially in the U.S. So freight is not really a factor there. But we've had inflation in the label materials business, which we're going to pass-through to our customers. And we don't have pass-through arrangements in that industry because there's so much churn in the kinds of labels people buy, changes all the time. So as label designs change, we reprice, and it always takes a quarter or so to work through inflationary pressures.I think also, we've had the cost benefits we had last year. So we had Social Security tax holidays in China, which were a big impact, which have all gone away. So we had some cost benefits last year, which have gone away, so different kind of inflation, but cost has risen because of that, too. So in the Checkpoint business, it's really around the stuff that we have to import from China. And so you've probably read all about the challenges of 40 foot shipping containers coming out of China. So we're going to have to pass on some increases due to that in the fourth quarter. And we'll be mitigating some of it through reengineering product lines and doing all the things you'd expect us to do. But total company-wide, if you -- I would estimate in Q3, we probably had -- between CAD 80 million and CAD 85 million of total inflation, it's a pretty big number for a company of our size. We probably mitigated a good chunk of that, certainly well over CAD 60 million, CAD 65 million. But we probably had to eat CAD 20 million, something like that, company-wide. So it's a pretty big number for 1 quarter.
Are you expecting a similar situation in 4Q in terms of what you'll have to eat?
Well, we'll have the benefit of some price increases kicking in, in Q4, and we will have some benefit of some easing. So we've seen China shipping freight ease. The peak holiday season month for shipping is October for getting stuff into the retail channel into their distribution centers for distribution in the holiday period. So we've seen freight shipping ease a little bit in Q4. We've seen aluminum come down quite significantly in the early months of -- early days of November. We've seen a big resin tail off in the U.S. in early November. So some of the steam that was in the cooker in the summer has blown out a bit. But there's still a fair amount there relative to what we had before. So we've still got some pricing work today to recover it.
That's great. And a couple of others. Just you didn't mention demand trends in your outlook commentary, I don't think. So I assume it's -- the trends are flattish sequentially. But is that the correct --
Demand is still pretty strong. We haven't seen any fall off in revenue or anything like that. So most of our businesses are facing strength in demand. The area that's still weak is automotive. So you've read all about the chip shortage in that industry. And we haven't seen really much of any improvement there. So for every OEM that's got 1 step forward, another one has taken one step back. So that looks like that won't really improve very much in October, and it's going to get significantly worse in the electronics industry, really more around the closure of supply chains in Vietnam of critical components for cellphones and things like that.
Yes. And just one last one, Geoff. As we approach next year, are there any segments that stand out to you as having opportunities for particularly good growth next year? I ask because Avery is probably on track to get close to where it was 2 years ago. Obviously, CCL had a nice year, even with the Secure fall off in 3Q. Is there any particularly obvious source of profit growth that comes to mind for you next year?
I think we'll have a big recovery in CCL Design next year. So because automotive has been in the dumps, really. I mean, it's going to have a worse year in '21 than they had in 2020, which is really unbelievable when you think about it, but it looks like that's what's going to happen. And so we'll have a huge recovery next year, I think, in CCL Design. So that will be a pocket of growth. RFID at Checkpoint will be a pocket of growth. And then the good old label land, we're seeing things pretty solid. And we've still got some pickup to come at Avery in the badge business, which is we're looking forward to. And I don't think we'll have the same supply chain challenges that we faced in back-to-school this year, next year because we'll have a bit of time, more time to plan for it. And things are easing somewhat. They were easier this year than they were last year, and I think it will be easier again next year. So we'll have some pickup there, too. So -- and then we've got some important new investments coming on stream at Innovia, so we're pretty optimistic about next year.
And the next question is coming from Walter Spracklin from RBC Capital Markets.
So just touching on your commentary on to next year. I know I've already gotten broader questions on this. So I wanted to reframe it again. So when we go back to late or, call it, third or fourth quarter of 2019, we did see some slowdown in your core CCL division that came about. And what I'm gathering from you based on just the answer to your last question, that is not the case here, that the third and fourth quarter really were up against some tough compares, and the business looks pretty strong going into 2022. Is that -- am I framing that correctly, Geoff?
Correct. Yes.
Excellent. All right. Going on to Inovia. Innovia, you had always indicated that was a CAD 700 million business with high-teen margins. But now with resin, that kind of throws that off given the pricing dynamic and the pass-through impact on margins --
High teens EBITDA.
That's right. Yes, high teens EBITDA. Can you -- if resin prices were to stay at this level, you're already trending [ CAD 750 million ] now, because you're pricing it on. It's hard for us to decompose the capacity because we're not getting a volume number in there. But is there a new kind of frame of reference that you can provide us in Innovia with regards to what the revenue run rate possibility, given the capacity of that division is and what the new margin EBITDA margin would be under a higher resin environment?
Well, resin is not -- we don't know what resin is going to do, Walter. So we're not really interested, it's a pass-through business. So -- but we had CAD 50 million of inflation in Q3 relative to the prior year. So we did recover it all, but it obviously has a pretty dramatic effect on your operating margins when you just have a cost pass through. So that's probably the most important number for you to hear. So if you take CAD 207 million of sales in this quarter, you have to take CAD 50 million of that to normalize it relative to the same period last year for inflation. And operating income and EBITDA would stay the same. So -- and even with that, we saw EBITDA margins of 15.8%.
Yes. It was fantastic. Okay. And just on CCL Design, you mentioned it could be a good year for next year. Any way you can frame for investors because right now, we don't have a -- you don't separately disclose that. Any indication that you can provide us as to what level of impact overall that would -- a rebound in CCL Design would have on your numbers next year, just as a frame of reference?
It's about a CAD 700 million segment.
And the next question is coming from Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets.
I just wanted to clarify, Geoff, just one thing from your commentary on the call, I just missed it, but you gave some color on the CCL segment about a CAD 30 million impact and 100 basis points on unrecovered inflation. Can you just clarify --
Yes. The CAD 30 million is really the combination of the comparative in CCL SECURE, which is about CAD 24 million and foreign exchange translation, which is about CAD 6 million. So the 2 combined about CAD 30 million year-over-year. And then the inflation impact -- unrecovered inflation, so I mean, inflation, we had more than this number. But unrecovered inflation was probably 1% of sales.
Okay. So about 100 basis points margin headwind.
Yes.
Okay. Obviously, lots of moving parts on the CCL segment heading into Q4 and into next year. But on balance, is it fair to assume that the Q4 outlook in terms of the CCL segment is on balance positive? I mean, is it -- or is it more sort of flattish to potentially negative?
Well, we had a very good quarter last year. So it was a very strong end of the year last year. So repeating that will be difficult. We did it in October. So that's a good sign. So it's always difficult to see what happens in the last month of the year. So all hangs on what happens in November and December now. But business is still quite strong. So -- but we're just waiting to see how things unfold. But going into next year, we feel quite encouraged about the prospects.
Okay. That's great. And then lots of impacts of inflation and supply chain issues. I'm just curious, when you're facing those issues in the business broadly, what are you managing to? Are you managing to surety of supply? Are you managing to a margin level? I'm just curious how you think about facing these challenges overall?
Well, I think it's -- the higher-margin businesses, we're focusing more on the security of supply. So where we've got business, lots of cover, we are more focused on making sure we keep the customers supplied. Where we've got sort of parts of the mix, which are more price sensitive, we're more focused on price recovery. And the supply chain challenges have really happened where we got into continental travel involved. So where things are moving from one part of the world to another, that's been the most difficult thing we've had to deal with. Where it's inside a region, it's been challenging every day, but we've been able to keep customers supplied and it's been much less of an issue. So it's a combination really. And it depends on which part of the business you're sitting in and the margins you've got to play with. If you're running Innovia and you've got CAD 50 million of inflation in 1 quarter, guess what you're focused on.
Right. Okay. And then maybe just 2 last questions. On the Checkpoint business, you indicated you have some price increases going through to offset inflation. Can you just give a little bit of color about what the lags are on that -- on those price increases going through? And then maybe on the Checkpoint business, secondly, what's sort of the long-term margin profile here? It's moved around a bit on a quarter-to-quarter basis. And I'm just curious how we think about that over the longer term.
Well last year, we had lot of benefits in Asia from the government support programs. So when the business turned back on last year, we had a very favorable cost profile, certainly an abnormally favorable cost profile that went away this year as things normalized. So the Social Security tax holiday in China, which was a big benefit last year and it's gone this year. And then just with the pickup in business, some operating expenses just normalizing. So that was a factor in the ALS business. I would say the other thing is the intermodal freight. And some of that may end up being transitory. It doesn't look like it's settling down a little bit. But the intermodal freight to get stuff out of China to every country, every market in the world was pretty big hit in Q3 in the MAS business. So in ALS, we -- all of our deliveries are local, delivering to apparel manufacturers inside the region. But in MAS, we're shipping all over the world, to the United States, to Western Europe, in particular. So that intermodal freight challenge was pretty painful in Q3 because of the cost of 45-foot shipping containers out of China.
Okay. That's great. And then on the price increases, how long does it typically take to offset the inflation that you're seeing?
I don't think it will take very long. We'll see how Q4 goes. So -- but I'd expect to get that back fairly quickly, some of it in Q4 and certainly the rest of it by the first quarter of next year when we should be back on-track, no problem.
And the next question is coming from Mark Neville from Scotiabank.
Maybe just first point of clarification on the challenge to match Q4. Would you still expect -- it sounds like it, but would you still expect sort of to see positive revenue comps across the business in 4Q?
Yes.
Okay. Geoff, you mentioned it was somewhere in the, I think, the MD&A or in the release, pricing -- difficult pricing in Home & Personal Care, Asia. I was just curious what that was.
Yes. Well, Asia was difficult, and 2 reasons really in Q3. So demand got really curtailed in ASEAN, the ASEAN countries because of the lockdowns in Thailand and Vietnam and Singapore and these kinds of countries. So we had a very soft quarter demand-wise. And then in China, the domestic market has also been slow and it got a lot more price-sensitive as a result of it being slow. That's changing a little bit as we go into the Q4 period now because it's got a little busier, but it was pretty tough in Q3 in China and in ASEAN.
Okay. And just on the CCL segment on inflation. The impact was 100 basis points. I mean all things considered not that large, but I guess I was under the impression it was -- everything was sort of produced, consumed locally. So I'm just sort of curious the inflationary pressures, it was on the material? And I just want to make --
All raw materials. So most of our raw material suppliers of laminates, inks, adhesives, varnishes, these price increases have been all in the double-digit range over the last 90 to 120 days. So it takes a while to fester that into the system. And we don't -- it's not a pass-through industry. So because labels change all the time, you get pricing -- repricing opportunities fairly regularly, but it's not all immediate. And this inflation came very quick, very hard, very fast.
Got it. Maybe just one last one, just on M&A. I'll ask the question, Geoff. I'm just curious what your thoughts around that. I don't know if you're able to -- travel is still a bit difficult, but --
Travel is good. So after this call, I'm off to the Middle East, Russia and Brazil. So we're able to travel a lot more. We still can't get to Asia. Asia is still problematic, but rest of the world is pretty much open. And we've got a good list of bolt-on opportunities. Nothing at scale currently, but a long healthy list of good bolt-on opportunities.
And the next question is coming from Michael Glen from Raymond James.
Geoff, can you just talk a little bit more about the consumer electronics vertical in CCL Design, what the demand trend looks like there or what that looks like for 2022?
Yes. It's been very strong. But we know in the peak period in that industry is really the tail end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter. And we know many, many OEMs have had trouble getting pass in China because the demand curve ramps up because of the holiday preparation period. So there has been some disruption. So many customers talking about it on their conference calls. And we've certainly seen it. So -- but the demand is still strong, but well into double digits.
Okay. And then on Food & Beverage vertical, when you look across the various sales channels there, is there still much upside left as we think about the reopening dynamic?
A bit. It's really Asia, the place that's still largely affected. So if you look at some of the beer companies results in Q3, they all reported huge double-digit drops in Asia. So that's the region of the world that's still impacted. So that's the region of the world that's still impacted. But I would say, North America and Western Europe and South America, some pretty good recovery in on-premise demand. And our business has done pretty well in Q3. But the part of the world where it's still soft is Asia.
Okay. And then on Checkpoint, is there any sales recovery or sales catch-up that could take place in Q4 that wasn't --
We had no problem meeting demand. It was the cost of meeting demand that was the issue.
Got it. And then any update on the share repurchase program?
None that I can talk about. You'll see in our press release
And the next question is coming from David McFadgen from Cormark.
A couple of questions. Just first of all, on Avery, you talked about the event badge business still being below normal. I was just wondering if you could give us an update on where you stand compared to-pre pandemic levels?
Well, the part that's still below normal is really business convention. So sports events, rock concerts, things of that order have returned full ball because this business is really not dependent on Asia in anyway. It's all Western Europe and North America. And so a big part of it is return to normal, but the business convention, the business event is still significantly below normal. So it was maybe -- things that have been normal, we may have added to a couple of million dollars to EBIT in the quarter. That's good to quantify for you.
Maybe if I can just ask another way. If you look at the revenue line, would you still be down something like 30% compared to pre-pandemic? I don't know if you can provide that detail, but…
Well, it's a high-margin business. So I think it's the EBIT impact that's really important for investors. And just to give you a frame of reference, if things had been totally normal, it would have been a couple of million dollars higher for Avery than we reported.
Okay. And then just moving on to the price increases. So looking at your various divisions, is it safe to assume that the price increases are really going to be taking effect in CCL and Checkpoint going forward?
Well, we've had pretty sizable price increases at Innovia. And we've recovered all the resins. But we didn't recover freight and inflation. So going forward, we still got some energy and freight issues to manage at Innovia. But we certainly have managed our way through the resin impact. Checkpoint, yes, price increases there; CCL, yes, price increases there. And we've also got price increases coming in Avery, particularly in those businesses that are sensitized to intercontinental supply chains.
Okay. And are you seeing any pushback on putting through these price increases or it's not a problem?
Anyone who can't get a price increase now, might as well go home and forget about it.
And the next question is coming from Ben Jekic from PI Financial.
Most of the questions have been asked. I just wanted to ask about Avery, and I guess, especially back-to-school business. I know in the last quarter, you were -- Geoff's talking about supply issues in China, and results were pretty, pretty strong. Would they have been even stronger if those issues didn't exist? Like what was --
Probably would have been things if we have had completely normal supply chain from China, we probably would have been a few million dollars better than we were for back-to-school. So maybe a couple of million dollars in badges that I just talked about in the last question and maybe CAD 2 million to CAD 3 million more on back-to-school than we would otherwise made around -- particularly freight. So freight was a big factor.
And next, we have Adam Josephson from KeyBanc with a follow-up.
Geoff, just back to design for a moment. You mentioned it's a CAD 700 million business. Should we assume it's roughly segment average margins? Or is it above or -- I'm just trying to get a sense of how much of a hit you took this year and consequently, what a reasonable expectation for how much you might get back next year is?
Well, automotive is -- a little over CAD 300 million. Electronics is near CAD 400 million. So electronics is the bigger part. So automotive is a sizable drain this year because it really -- we had a good start, but then when the chip thing hit, it really tanked. So there's a big upside there. And also in electronics, we've got some big new programs we've won, which are going to come forth through the system next year. And hopefully, we'll have some of this inflation out of our system, too. So we're very encouraged by the prospects of CCL Design next year.
Any rough sense of -- just for us as to how much your automotive business is down this year?
Well, if you talk about the segment in total, I mean, CAD 700 million in sales because we might have a couple of points of margin, we can improve on next year over this year, something like that, give you a frame of reference.
Okay. I appreciate that, Geoff. On the EcoFloat investment, same kind of question, how much -- remind us how sizable that investment is and what benefit one could reasonably expect next year as it starts up?
Well, it's a CAD 35 million capital investment. So we obviously want to make a 20% return on that. So that's probably the starting point. And the good news is that most of the volume we're targeting is already internally -- is all internal. So the EcoFloat films, we would substitute the films we currently buy on the outside that are not as environmentally sensitive as EcoFloat is. So it will be largely for internal consumption. We will sell on the outside, too, but it's largely for internal consumption.
That's great. And just one last one for me. In terms of just the CCL segment growth, and I think you've talked in the past about, depending on where we are in the economic cycle, the high end of the segment's organic growth might be 6-ish, the low end might be 0% to 1%. Obviously, last year was 1% -- actually, the last 2 years were 1%. This year is going to be, call it, 6%. So the high end. So you've gone from the low end to the high end. What do you think are reasonable expectation along those lines next year might be, just given whatever your views of what's happening to the global economy are?
Well, that's the big unanswered question. But if the economy holds up low to mid-single digits, so 4%, 5% maybe. And another factor is how much inflation we still have in the system to come next year. So that's another thing that we're not -- we don't actually know about. So -- but I would say something in that range, in the 4% to 5%.
And it could be biased upward, just given all the price increases you're having to implement?
Yes. So it depends how much prices we're going to have to factor into the system next year and whether some of the inflation and some of these commodities ends up being transitory or not.
[Operator Instructions] We do have another follow-up coming from Stephen MacLeod from BMO Capital Markets.
I just had a quick follow-up on the Innovia segment. You had a big benefit, obviously, as you talked about the price versus mix in the revenue. Do you -- has most of that already gone through? Or will you still see some price impact coming through in Q4?
It's probably a little bit more priced to come in Q4, but I think we have to bear in mind now, Stephen, the resin indexes have traded down in November pretty extensively. So they dropped up almost double digits in a week or so ago. So we'll be feeding those into the system as well. So I doubt when you add -- when you factor that in, I doubt there'll be a lot of resin recovery in Q4, because I don't think we'll need it.
Okay. And then maybe just following on to Adam's question about 2022 and sort of how you're thinking about the business for CCL. That's -- thank you for the color on the organic sales growth. Margin-wise, would you expect to sort of maintain that historical range of like 15% to 16% on the EBIT line in 2022?
Sure.
Yes. Okay. And then just finally, the Avery margins were quite strong in the quarter, and they were weaker in 2020 for obvious reasons. But would you expect next year to sort of return back to historical levels in that 20% to 21% -- 21%, 22% range?
Right.
Thank you. There were no other questions left in queue at this time. I would now like to hand the call back to the CCL management team for closing remarks.
Okay, everybody. Well, thank you very much for joining our call. We look forward to talking to you again early next year. Thank you very much. Good morning.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time. And have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.