Blackline Safety Corp

TSX:BLN

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q1

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Blackline Safety First Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Boston, Director of Finance. Please go ahead.

[Scott Boston, executive]

Thank you, Streetz. Good morning. Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'd like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded today, Wednesday, March 16, 2022. With me today is Cody Slater, CEO and Chair of Blackline Safety Corp. as well as our CFO, Shane Grennan.

Before turning the call over to Cody, I would like to note that some of the information discussed in this call is based on information as of today and contains forward-looking statements that may involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statements disclosure in the earnings news release as well as in the company's SEDAR filings.

During the call, there will be a discussion of IFRS results, non-GAAP financial measures, non-GAAP ratios and supplementary financial measures. A reconciliation between IFRS results and non-GAAP financial measures is available on the company's earnings news release and MD&A, both of which can be found on our website, Blacklinesafety.com and on SEDAR. All dollar amounts are reported in Canadian dollars, unless otherwise noted.

Participants are advised that this webcast is live and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of this webcast will be made available on the Investors section of our website. Neither this call nor the webcast archive may be rerecorded or otherwise reproduced or distributed without prior written permission from Blackline Safety Corp.

With that, I will now hand the call over to Mr. Slater.

[Cody Slater, executive]

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Blackline Safety's Q1 2022 Earnings Call. Today, we will be discussing our first quarter results, which were issued before market opening this morning. To set the agenda for today's remarks, I will start by providing a broad company overview. Shane will then discuss some of the highlights of our first quarter in greater detail, and I'll conclude with the company's outlook and some closing remarks before we take a few questions.

At a high level, the 47% top line growth we delivered in the first quarter reflects the continued execution on our Invest to Grow strategy. This plan has involved strategically accelerating investments in sales and marketing and advancing our game-changing product road map to further capitalize on the expanding market for connected safety around the world. The $15.7 million we generated in total revenue marked the 20th consecutive quarter of year-over-year revenue growth. This milestone was driven by robust growth in our U.S. and Rest of World segments, with 80% and 93% total revenue growth, respectively. Sales in our Europe region were up 51% in Q1. And based on our current visibility and backlog, we expect the region's growth rates to accelerate in fiscal 2022.

High-margin recurring software services increased 9% sequentially and 25% year-over-year to $7.4 million in the first quarter, again demonstrating the stickiness of our hardware-enabled Software as a Service business model. While hardware margins were challenged during the quarter due to a variety of factors that Shane will discuss, we think it's important to keep in mind that every $1 of G7 Wearable hardware sales generates $4 in lifetime recurring service revenue. The recurring service revenue has a substantially higher profit margin profile than the hardware does such that approximately 92% of the lifetime gross profit is derived after the initial hardware sale. So while we will continue to work on maximizing hardware margins, the majority of our value creation clearly occurs after the initial sale and has been unaffected by these headwinds.

I'm incredibly proud of our team's continued success mitigating the supply chain challenges and delivering for our customers, where we continue to see extremely healthy demand for our products and services globally. We are adapting where we can to recapture our hardware margins, but ultimately, we believe this is a short-term challenge that does not affect the long-term higher margin profitability of our service agreements with our customers.

I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Shane Grennan, to discuss our first quarter results and financial position in more detail.

[Shane Grennan, executive]

Thank you, Cody, and good morning, all. As Cody said, we achieved another quarter of strong year-over-year growth of 47%, yielding revenues of $15.7 million, including product revenues of $7.3 million, which represents a 91% increase from the same quarter last year. The increase was a reflection of our global sales team, which we built up over the last 2 years, with more than double the count of regional sales managers in that time period. Although we'd note that Q1 is typically a seasonally slower quarter for us due to procurement cycles, and this seasonality is why we believe evaluating us on year-over-year growth is more appropriate than sequentially.

Service revenue grew to $8.3 million from $6.8 million or 22%. Software services revenue remained the most significant portion of our service revenue at 89%. Rental revenue continues to grow rapidly, up 188% from the prior year to $0.2 million. We have invested in our rental fleet and operations center in Houston, which will enable us to scale this up dramatically over the remainder of this fiscal year. Activity in this service line will remain seasonal, but will become a very steady growth driver for us. On the hardware side, the G7 EXO sales were strong at 19% of our total hardware revenue for the quarter. However, this was down from 23% in the prior year quarter, which negatively impacted our hardware margins.

Our Invest to Grow strategy continue to yield benefits, including our expanded sales team in the United States, where revenue increased 80% to $6.9 million, including a large contract win with a major independent energy company during the quarter, which will contribute to strong service revenue growth when it is fully deployed in the third quarter. Over the last 2 years, we have focused heavily on our global network, which has translated to a robust growth of 93% outside of North America and Europe to $1.2 million. I would like to emphasize this point even further by the fact that Rest of World revenue has grown from 4% to 8% of total revenue for this quarter when compared to 2 years ago.

Note that we have closed on our previously announced agreement to secure a facility in Dubai, which we expect to contribute to further strength in Rest of World growth. The expanded European sales team also delivered strong results. Even though Europe did not achieve the same growth rates at these other segments, total revenue grew 51% compared to the prior year quarter. Our European growth was negatively impacted by timing of some larger projects, but we expect this region's growth rate to accelerate for the balance of the year. Overall, service revenue during the quarter was $8.3 million, a 22% increase from the prior year.

Software services revenue was up 25% year-over-year and up 9% sequentially, driven by new activations of devices and expansions of our existing customer base. Newly activated devices contributed to growth of $0.3 million in the quarter, while increases from our existing customer base added $0.5 million to the quarter. This increase was offset by customers who renewed fewer active devices due to workforce reductions of $0.3 million and only $14,000 from customers who declined to renew this quarter. Our service margin percentage was largely unchanged at 68% as increases in salaries, connectivity and data costs were mostly offset by the increase in service revenue.

Product gross margin for the quarter was adversely impacted by cost inflation from shortages of certain components and higher-than-normal freight charges due to ongoing supply chain -- global supply chain challenges in the first quarter of 2022. As a result, product gross margin in the first quarter of 10% decreased from the prior year period of 17%, excluding the benefit of the Canada emergency wage subsidy. While some of our competitors experienced delays in delivering product to customers, our procurement team remained dynamic and with our capital flexibility, we were able to absorb the increased costs and maintain our strong relationships with our customers.

We take seriously the role that our devices and services play in keeping our customers' employees safe, and we will do whatever it takes to continue to meet their needs while these challenges persists. That being said, we expect the proactive moves we are taking will mitigate inflation of our material costs and elevated freight charges. These efforts, along with increased product sales in future quarters will contribute to higher gross margins in subsequent quarters. The overall combined gross margin percentage for products and services was 41%, which was lower than the same quarter last year, primarily driven by the higher proportion of product revenue overall. Product research and development costs were up 59% to $5.3 million for the quarter. Excluding Wearable Technologies and CEWS, the increase was 29%, driven largely by higher salaries and wage expense for additional team members.

Team is continuing to work to ready G6 for market this coming summer as well as developing concepts for the G5, which is planned for release in early fiscal 2023. On the sales and marketing expenses side, we saw an increase to $8.9 million. This equates to 107% year-over-year growth in our sales and marketing expenses compared to 173% in Q4 2021. Excluding the impact of CEWS and additional costs for Wearable Technologies, the increase was actually 90%. The increase is primarily due to increase in the salaries of new hires and significantly higher travel and trade show costs as global travel restrictions eased and the company fully returned to its flagship trade show. In addition, higher hardware sales drove increased sales and distributor commissions for the quarter.

General and administrative costs increased to $4.9 million. This reflects the continued trend of decreasing year-over-year growth in our G&A, which was 196% in Q3 2021 to 138% in Q4 2021 to 111% this quarter. Excluding the impact of CEWS and WTL, the increase was 82%. The increase was driven by the expansion of our operations team as we focus on improving our quality assurance, efficiency and overall manufacturing capacity based on the demand in our pipeline expectations for G6. We've also expanded the team responsible for system security to continue providing the highest levels of resiliency for both our customer facing and internal systems. There are also higher costs associated with being listed on the TSX.

Company continues to maintain a strong balance sheet with no debt and a solid working capital position of $52 million, including cash and short-term investments of $45 million. Additionally, the company has access to a $15 million credit facility that is currently undrawn. Capital expenditures and lease payments for the quarter totaled $2 million, primarily due to sale of revenue-generating gas sensor cartridges as well as additions to our surface mount technology line and manufacturing equipment. Inventory totaled $15.2 million at January 31, 2022, compared to $12.7 million at the end of our fourth quarter. The growth in inventory is a result of the build for G6, G7 and G7 EXO to meet increased anticipated orders in 2022, inflationary pressures on certain components, higher stocking requirements for the company's subsidiaries in France and the U.K. as well as proactive management of material levels as a result of ongoing supply chain challenges.

Blackline provides the option to our customers to purchase outright our devices or to lease through our G7 lease program. With this, customer decision affecting the timing of our cash inflows associated with that sale. We have expanded the number of customers opting for finance leases with a total of $18.3 million in future contracted cash flows at January 31, 2022, an increase from $16.3 million at the prior year-end and an increase from $7 million at January 31, 2021. These finance leases positively impact our immediate product revenues and service revenues over time, but negatively impact the timing of associated cash inflows to Blackline. Generally, it takes 1.5 to 2 years for finance lease contracts to catch up to a purchase agreement with service in terms of the cash flows.

Lastly, I would like to highlight that we continue to make progress on our environmental, social and governance objectives. As discussed in our last call, we published our 2021 ESG report on February 17, highlighting a number of achievements, goals and initiatives here at Blackline Safety. Perhaps most importantly, we have committed to achieving net 0 as a company by the end of fiscal 2023. We recognize that we have a duty to continue to improve our impacts on our environments, people, communities, investors, customers and partners. We look forward to keeping you all apprised of our progress through future updates.

I will hand it back to Cody to discuss our outlook and to provide closing remarks. Cody?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Thank you, Shane. Looking ahead, we are launching the first of its kind G6 connected personal safety device for the 0 maintenance market in July, followed by the launch of the G5 in the light industry and construction markets in early fiscal 2023. Both launches build on our success with the G7 and G7 EXO and will extend our competitive lead with the most comprehensive connected safety suite of technologies globally, including our Blackline Live portal for cloud-based real-time reporting. Our software platform not only provides us with a competitive advantage but delivers tremendous value and insights for our customers who rely on our technology daily to ensure the well-being of their workers.

Along that line, our team continually strives to innovate new ways to connect all elements of the industrial work site more broadly to further enhance workplace safety and operational efficiency. Blackline's track record of innovation and growth was recently recognized by several noteworthy organizations and lists, including the Canadian Business New Innovators list and the Deloitte Enterprise Fast 15. More importantly though, our solution continues to see adoption by a growing list of high-quality customers, including securing a $4.3 million contract with a new major U.S. energy customer and being named a preferred vendor by Shell plc in a 3-year global framework agreement.

Our investment in sales and technology infrastructure over the past 2 years has established the foundation to not only take the G6 into the 0 maintenance market of over 2 million unconnected devices, but also expand beyond gas detection and begin to connect the broader industrial workplace. With the G5, we are looking into new areas beyond gas detection, where we currently have little to no penetration, opportunities that will significantly increase our total addressable market. We believe we have reached a critical mass internally as a result of our successful Invest to Grow strategy. Our operations have scaled significantly, which gives us the strength and resources to capitalize on the growth opportunities in our current industrial markets as well as new types of workplaces as we transform them through connected worker technology.

As we look to the remainder of the year, we expect revenue growth to accelerate through continued market adoption of our products and services and the introduction of new products. At the same time, we also expect to see a moderation in expense growth as the majority of the investment in scaling our operations is now complete, significantly improving operating leverage and demonstrating the attractiveness of our hardware-enabled SaaS model as we connect the world's industrial workforce.

Thank you to everyone for your attention today and your continued support for Blackline Safety. I'll leave it there, and we'll turn the call over to the operator and open it up for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Amr Ezzat with Echelon Partners.

[Amr Ezzat, analyst]

Cody, Shane, my first question is on the product gross margin front. You spoke to a few moving parts in your prepared remarks. And I'm trying to get a sense of what you guys deem as a one-off for the quarter for [ that ] of 2, maybe what's here to stay over the next few quarters?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Sure. Yes. I think that keeping in mind 2 things in -- a series of things impact our hardware margin. One is product mix. So a larger percentage of our EXO, which this was a very light EXO quarter, will increase the margin just naturally. As well, the Q1 is a very low product number. So there's a lot of -- there's unabsorbed labor in there that just impacts that number. I think the real thing to look at it as a differential rather than the Q4 is the Q1 of the prior year, where you're looking at a 17% to a 10%, the majority of that supply chain challenges.

And I think it's fair to say we see those continuing for another quarter or 2, but not much longer than that. A little -- it's a bit of a moving target with that, Amr, where you wind up with different [Technical difficulty] materials at different points in time and having to going on allocation, having to buy through secondary sources. So I would say we've seen the worst of it is our view from our operations teams, but it's probably not over yet.

[Amr Ezzat, analyst]

Okay. So if I sort of -- the hit from supply chain, I guess, as you quantify it, there's probably like 700 to 1,000 basis points if I'm comparing it like last year. And that differential would continue over the next couple of quarters. Is that a fair assessment?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Again, I'd say I think it's a fair assessment on a conservative standpoint, Amr. I think we'll see the company do better than that from the realized margin base, but it's a reasonable assessment to take just because of the volatility in that space. We have components that you'll see that are one, being a power amplifier that goes into a number of our products. It's a $0.60 component that went onto allocation that you had brokers trying to sell for $60. We wound up acquiring for 6, but those are the kinds of things that sort of come in and out. In the meantime, we've strengthened our inventory positions, which will mitigate that going forward though, I'd say.

And again, as the product volumes increase, you'll see greater leverage from just that absorption of labor. And as we get into quarters that are a bit more focused on the EXO, like Q3 and Q4 will be stronger EXO quarters, you'll see a natural strengthening of the margin as well. So a long way to say that I think that's a conservative number to use. That's definitely [ in terms to ] [indiscernible]

[Amr Ezzat, analyst]

No, I appreciate the color. So I mean, let's stay on the EXO. I know fiscal Q1 can be tricky as it's seasonally weak. But is there any read-through for us like when we look at the EXO last year, I believe it was $1.7 million. This quarter, it looks like 1.4. Any read-throughs there or it's just seasonality and it's extremely hard to come to a conclusion?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes. EXO, if you look at it year-on-year, we're still -- I mean, Q4 was a very strong quarter for the EXO in the range of 2 plus -- $2.5 million with [indiscernible] sales. That was really fueled by a couple of very large orders in the U.K. So that's the lumpiness, I guess, I'd say, the nature of that market where you'll see some impacts from that. If you look at EXO growth year-on-year though, Q1 a year ago, we were about $800,000, $900,000. So you're seeing growth in the year-on-year numbers, a little drop from the Q4 because of that seasonality. We'll see growth strengthening of the EXO market as we go forward into its more traditionally stronger fall quarters, I would say, Q3 and Q4 for us as well. We're adding certain feature sets to the EXO that allow it to expand into a bit more a bit broader market. It also helps -- will help to generate some strength in that space.

[Amr Ezzat, analyst]

Okay. I think we've got different numbers for last year's EXO. We can just sort of discuss offline. On the G6 launch, last quarter, you spoke to supply chain being like the biggest risk that you thought it was manageable. Just wondering how that has evolved since your last conference call. Then on that same topic on the inventory fronts, like the continued ramp and you guys mentioned it's partly ahead of the G6 launch. But I'm just wondering like how does your inventory compared to what you guys have budgeted. Is it below budgets, over budgets, on budget?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Sure. I'd say, I mean, to take your first question on the G6. Material supply challenges are still its greatest risk to its July launch at this stage where the product itself is moving well. And by the product, I mean, everything around the G6. G6 is not only the device. It is a totally new communication protocol and system back-end infrastructure, all that's coming together very well. We're pleased with the progress from all the product teams. Our visibility today is similar to what it was before. We believe we're fine on the context of the supply chain. I will note things like when you start seeing segments of China being shut down, those are the risk -- there's still risk there. They're just entirely impossible to predict, I would say. But at this point, we're confident with the launch time, confident with the product.

If you look at the inventory side, I'd say the inventories are heavier than we would have budgeted originally and that's more to do with defensiveness around supply chain than it is to do with the G6. One of the points Shane made in his comments is during these last couple of quarters, we've not -- one thing I will say on the supply chain, that's impacted our margins. That's absolutely true. It certainly impacted even to a base where you don't see that. We actually have more people working and purchasing materials, all those kinds of things than you would normally just because it's so much more of a complex world to live in right now. So that's sort of behind the scenes.

But we've not been in a position where that has caused us to not be able to deliver product to a customer. And that's something that our standard traditional gas detection competitors can't say. And a number of them have been in positions where they're just simply not able to deliver. So that's been our key focus, and that is part of the reason why you see the growth in the inventory is just to ensure that we're -- those supply chain issues that we do see as potential challenges don't cause the problems that would allow us and would force us to not be able to deliver the product to customers.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Kris Thompson with PI Financial.

[Kristopher Thompson, analyst]

Just to confirm on the G6 customer trials, Cody, is that still slated to commence in April?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes. Yes. We're still looking at an April time line for initial customer trials. May -- so still -- basically everything on the development side of the G6 is still in to where we wanted it to be. We're doing our first manufacturing run of a few 100 devices soon. We're going to be getting in front of more customers, getting some field experience there. So all that looks very positive right now.

[Kristopher Thompson, analyst]

Okay. Good stuff. Great to hear. And just maybe for Shane, on the inflation front. There was a mention of higher salaries in the MD&A for your SOC team members. Have you made all the salary changes by now? Or should we expect additional margin pressure to the remainder of 2022?

[Shane Grennan, executive]

Yes. Just on that point, Kris, I should clarify that there's some increased headcount coming through in the SOC as opposed to salary inflations. Through the remainder of the fiscal year, there will be an element for salary view that is taking place through that, but that would be a traditional number as opposed to anything out of the ordinary.

[Kristopher Thompson, analyst]

Okay. Great. And just last one for me. You mentioned headcount. Can you give an idea of where you're at at the end of January? And what we should think about towards the end of this year because OpEx, I know you guys are scaling for the product launches and infrastructure builds globally, but just give us an idea of how that OpEx should look over the next few quarters, if you don't mind?

[Shane Grennan, executive]

Kris, we're sitting at 580 employees globally as of today. That increased from where we were at the end of the fiscal year of 63 individuals across each of the departments and teams around the world.

[Kristopher Thompson, analyst]

You said 518?

[Shane Grennan, executive]

580.

[Kristopher Thompson, analyst]

58. In the end of the year, would you anticipate still being above 600?

[Shane Grennan, executive]

Certainly above 600, but nowhere near the growth. If you look at it, like 60 people a quarter was our prior growth. It's not going to be anything close to that as we go forward here, Kris.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Bryan Fast with Raymond James.

[Bryan Fast, analyst]

I just want to dig into rental a bit more. Could you elaborate a bit more on the investment and what that entails? And then what will you be looking for out of that program in order to invest more?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Sure. It's a good question, Bryan. Sorry, it's a good question because there's -- we talked a little bit in some of the releases about the investment in hardware. So we've actually built up a hardware level of around 1,500 devices, mix of EXOs and G7s for the rental fleet. But there's also investments in -- to date, there's also been investments in systems to build the rental systems, how we build, how we manage, how we monitor people, facility, that's one of the core reasons for our Houston facility. We've brought on board the people who run that program, to build the program. And it's really starting to -- that's over the last year. That's starting to show the real results and growth in that.

I would say Q1, when you look at it will -- this is a market that will be seasonal going forward. Bryan, there's something to keep in mind. Q1 will always be the slowest. Q2 and Q4 traditionally the strongest. This year, I'd like to really see though is a ramp from Q1 to Q2 to Q3 to Q4, just because we're really just getting into the market. Our own internal forecasts for Q1 as an example, we're about 30% below where we actually achieved in the quarter. And we -- so if you look at it in the last year, we did $900,000 in Q4 on the rental side. We're looking to be -- as an annual number, we're looking at for it to be a contributor in and around the $3 million mark this year.

[Bryan Fast, analyst]

That's helpful. And then maybe could you talk about the shape of the sales pipeline and how that looks right now and maybe what end markets you're seeing higher levels of activity?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Sure. The -- if I look at the pipelines across the different groups, you really -- we're getting significantly enough now it's worthwhile to look at in those 3 categories. We're sort of talking about North America, Europe and rest of world. The North American pipeline and the European -- the North American pipeline particularly, I would say is the strongest, certainly, we've ever seen it. It would support extremely strong growth targets going forward here. It's deeper than we've seen it before and broader. And I think that's really simply because of the fact of the number of RSMs we have, the number of people we have in the field, that have expanded the opportunity to build up. But it's also because North America is the first area we really -- particularly, the U.S. is what I'm talking about is the first area where we really get -- able to get back in front of customers with that expanded sales force and marketing team, not -- I won't say post COVID, but in the latter days of the COVID period here.

Europe sort of the next market, we were able to go down that path in Mainland Europe has seen a real strengthening in its pipeline, particularly. Now that we have the operation in France, we're seeing some real -- just higher ability to actually attract that larger scale up customer and opportunity in those markets by having the feet on the ground. Rest of the world, you've seen the growth there is pretty extreme. And to Shane's point, it's actually starting to become a real contributor, 4% a year ago, 8% this last quarter. I think one of the biggest things for that market will really be, Bryan, the launch of the G6 that is a core. If you look at that, the UAE office in that whole Middle Eastern market space is primarily, that's definitely a G6 market. So again, strong pipeline today. We'll continue to see strong growth there. But I think that will be really accelerated as we hit the G6 launch.

[Operator]

The next question comes from David Kwan with TD Securities.

[David Kwan, analyst]

You mentioned briefly just about the impact of the spread of Omicron in China and some of the, I guess, temporary shutdowns that we're seeing in terms of manufacturing activity there. Like have you seen much of an impact at this point? And do you expect much of an impact going forward?

[Cody Slater, executive]

The -- to answer the first portion of the question is we've not actually at this point in time, David, seen much of an impact from that. The problem we'd expect is that we go through -- as soon as those things happen, our teams here go through all of our supply components with what customer, what manufacturer we're dealing with, and we have -- none of them are -- none of our direct supply is impacted by anything we've seen to date. The unknown for us is indirect supply where we buy a module, say, for one of our communications modules where they may be getting components from those areas that are shut down, and then we'll get a notification that their material is going on allocation. So that's where we're -- that's where the risks are, I would say, again, mitigated by a strong inventory level, both in finished goods and in raw materials on those things we think are of highest risk.

[David Kwan, analyst]

That's helpful. And on the G6, you kind of talked about sticking to the July launch. But in terms of the approvals, can you talk about where you are kind of what's outstanding?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Products are -- so approvals are still a gating point, but we don't anticipate that to be a problem at this point in time, David. We have everything lined up and going through. We're actually doing multiple approvals on the G6 to sort of minimize some of the risks there. So don't see that as being the gating point right now, realistically, probably the biggest -- still the biggest potential challenge to the time lines there are going to be the supply chain.

[David Kwan, analyst]

Okay. And then last question for me. Just on the services revenue. Just wanted to get your thoughts on how we should see the trajectory of that line in the coming quarters here, particularly, I guess, in light of the significant pickup in G7 revenue in recent quarters. So obviously saw a very strong Q4, expect that probably a pretty decent uptick at least in heading into Q2?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes. I think like the pickups from the Q4 will be in Q2 and Q3, the one -- the biggest order we have there is actually being deployed over a couple of quarters. So -- but you will start seeing a better cadence from that service growth going into the latter quarters of the year here.

[Operator]

The next question comes from John Shao with National Bank.

[Meng Shao, analyst]

I'm just curious about the conversation with your oil and gas clients given the strong oil price lately. And do you see the potential of an acceleration of product adoption in that market?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes, it's a good -- an interesting question. I'd say it's really geographically centered. I think in -- I'll give you an example. In Kazakhstan, actually, some of the larger broad opportunities we've been looking at have come back up to visibility and are being accelerated forward because of the oil price. Canada, not so much. Canada, a lot of our growth is usually driven by new investments in the oil and gas space, and that's not something we're really seeing. Strength in the U.S. market comes around -- if you look at things like that rental market as part of that growth -- part of the strength in the oil and gas space as well as the timing of the improvement in the oil and gas will be very positive for the G6 launch as well too, because that's a broader market in oil and gas than the G7 is. So what I guess I'm saying though is, yes, we're seeing an impact, but maybe not as much as you've seen in the past when that kind of oil price would have driven big investment into new infrastructure and new facilities. That's the kind of thing we're not seeing.

[Meng Shao, analyst]

Okay. And for the G5, you mentioned it's a new market for the company. So who are you mainly competing with in that market?

[Cody Slater, executive]

The G5 is really going to be new market, not going to be -- there's no direct competitor in the base. Think about things like port workers, large construction sites, railroad sites. You're talking about a product that's a little bit more -- this is -- again, it's based around the WTL acquisition, Wearable Technologies. So think about that safety vest with the capabilities for connectivity built into it. A bit more focused on the productivity aspect, I'd say here is a bit more of a software play than it is the hardware. The hardware is there simply really to get the data for these companies. There's a safety aspect as well too.

But it will be -- it's -- we're not directly competing with anything with simply -- but what we are -- I would say it's not -- in that context, usually, when you're talking about a brand-new market, there's a lot of difficulty within that base. But when you talk about those markets and you talk about those concepts of efficiency and the operational side, it's something they're all looking for. So in long respect, we'll be competing against software offerings that attempt to help you manage a large operation like that in a more effective manner, but we'll be competing with a totally different approach to it.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Raj Sharma with B. Riley.

[Rajiv Sharma, analyst]

I wanted to understand product gross margins. I know, Cody, that you just mentioned to an earlier participant on the call that you should look at gross margins this year about 700 basis points to 1,000 basis points lower year-on-year. With the significant increase in product this year that would have contributed to margin increases, that's entirely being impacted by supply chain issues. Is that correct? And longer term, how do we -- where do we see product gross margin settling? I understand that it's -- the product gross margin is going to be very volatile.

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes. I think really, we see -- it's a good point you make like that, when we talk about something like, say, a 700 basis point impact from supply chain challenges just to increase costs and what we're dealing with, that is an element I would look at as against what would have been margin improvement based on volumes anyways. That improvement is still going to be there. There's less unabsorbed labor. We are more effective in for building more volume. So really, as you look towards the latter quarters of the year here, we would see the margins getting back into those 30% ranges in the latter part of this year and in the next part -- in the early part to mid-part of next year being partially based on new product introductions like the G6 and the -- some of the other things that are coming along the pipe getting up into the higher 30s, mid-30s, shall we say.

So it's not a -- I mean it's not a structural change in what we're talking about, but there is probably for the next couple of quarters, still some impact to be taken until those volumes and new products sort of take over and put the story back in regardless of what's happening on the supply chain.

[Rajiv Sharma, analyst]

Right. And especially also because you're shifting -- in product, you're shifting part of it to rentals on equipment makes that even tougher to predict. And clearly, the main contributor is the dollar of products gets you to $4 of recurring, but does it -- do you ask the question whether it is so tough to predict the business and the gross margins that is it better to kind of combine the 2 -- the product and the service lines and look at it as an overall business?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Well, I think the issue is -- when you look at that, like if you look at an order from the customer, say, that come on -- that came in yesterday for -- actually, it's an interesting new market for us. It's refrigeration maintenance. They're looking at, I think, the order is about $200,000 worth of hardware and $220,000 worth of service, but the service is a 1-year contract. If you look at the lifetime value of that customer, we've never lost a customer over there sort of 5-year scale. So if you say it's that -- if you want to look at that sale and look at the overall margin as the lifetime value of the service and the hardware and look at what the margin is, then that's a fair way to take an approach.

If you look at it just as the individual contract though, it's not -- I think you're missing -- it misses the point because the individual contract is just for 1 year. So yes, the individual contract is still weighted to service as far as margin, but hardware variance margin can impact it reasonably significantly. But if you stretch it over the lifetime value of that customer, that the hardware really makes -- a drop of 20% in our hardware makes a difference in 5% and overall margin of the customer over its lifetime. So it is something that I think is worth looking at and something maybe we make surface a little bit more is like what is the lifetime value of the contract as we when we onboard a new customer and give a bit more visibility to that because that is the real story at the end of the day.

[Rajiv Sharma, analyst]

All right. I mean, I guess, you were reminding us to keep the eye on the ball and sort of you don't really care -- you do care, but you don't really care where the product gross margins come in as long as we are able to sell the product because the lifetime revenues from it are so substantial and the lifetime gross margin dollars are so substantial. But the volatility does muddied up.

[Cody Slater, executive]

Yes. Certainly, it has been the like the volatility impacts -- I was just going to say the volatility impacts cash flow and current EBITDA significantly because right now we're -- as we're getting out of this and we're starting to see the real growth return, it starts with hardware. So we have to lead with hardware in the hardware-enabled SaaS world. So we will see larger volumes of hardware, which will mean that, that margin will impact that quarterly base. But if you look a couple of years out, when we'd be modeling that services 70%, 75% of our revenue and hardware is 25%, then you could take a base of saying, "Yes, you can balance the 2." But it's really to get there.

Definitely, there isn't debate. Nobody here would say we don't care about what our hardware margin is. We certainly do care. And in fact, we don't talk about things we're doing on the product right now where we are -- as we migrate the G7 into its newer and newer versions going forward. We'll also be focusing on cost reduction in the product, other things like that. Certainly, we focus on it, but we don't want to -- the real value is ensuring we don't lose that long-term customer just because of the short-term focus on that hardware margin.

[Rajiv Sharma, analyst]

Yes. Just -- I don't want to beat a dead horse, but just last, would you say that the impact that the total gross margins would have been 30% x of supply chain impacts? And do these supply chain impacts stay for the rest of the year? Or do you think they're pretty much getting resolved?

[Cody Slater, executive]

Probably been -- I mean a little bit south of the 30 just because the volumes weren't quite there. And really again, it depends a little bit on product mix. So yes, you're not in -- the product mix impacted it comparatively as well too, because we had lower EXOs. So the 700 basis points is sort of saying if I looked at the product mix going forward for the next couple of quarters, we'd have been originally projecting a slightly north of 30% gross margin for product. In Q2, Q3, we're probably projecting somewhat below because of that impacts. But the volumes start to overcome that and the mix of the EXO -- heavier EXO portions in Q4 will also sort of help to mitigate that number.

And again, talking about those numbers on the supply chain side, I think this last quarter, we've been dealing with supply chain challenges for a period of time. They really hit us this last quarter more than any other quarter, just landed with more things where you're dealing with brokers, higher rates significantly dramatically higher slate because you're flying things all over the place to get them in time to keep that delivery to the customer on a timely basis. I think we've seen the worst of it, but it is a variable that we just can't predict really.

[Rajiv Sharma, analyst]

I'll take this offline.

[Operator]

This concludes the Question-and-Answer Session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Cody Slater for any closing remarks.

[Cody Slater, executive]

I'd just like to thank everyone today for their questions and their participation, and we'd like to wish you all a good rest of the day. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating, and have a pleasant day.